Turkish plan to invade Greece at the height of the Syrian war in 2014 is revealed in leaked documents

Daily Mail, UK

  • The plans are thought to focus on maintaining military capabilities in the area
  • They were leaked when accidentally submitted as part of some court filings 
  • News of the leaked documents come amid rising tensions between the countries
  • Greece and Turkey have been enemies for a long time with a history of wars 

Turkey developed a plan to invade Greece during the height of the war in Syria, according to leaked documents. The documents also included plans to invade Armenia. 

The plans that were drawn up were named after an 11th century Turkish military commander, according to Nordic Monitor, who have seen the documents.

The documents were reportedly part of a PowerPoint presentation that was set to be given by the Turkish General Staff – who preside over the Armed Forces in Turkey – for internal planning review.

Greece and Turkey are old enemies and have a long history of violence, fighting a number of wars against one-another, particularly in the early 1900s.

The plans are believed to have centred around maintaining offensive and deterrence capabilities on the western front, while moving troops during the war in Syria. 

Anti-Greek rhetoric has been growing in Ankara as the Erdoğan reigeme looks to bolster its influence in the area, as fears of a military confrontation between the two NATO allies are escalating.

Titled 'TSK Çakabey Harekât Planlama Direktifi' – TSK (Turkish Armed Forces) Çakabey Operation Planning Directive – the presentation was dated June 13, 2014 at the height of the Syrian civil war that started in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring.

The Nordic Monitor reported that this suggests that the plan was likely an updated version and finalised after a review of an earlier draft, and that the plan could still be active.

The documents also included a plan to invade Armenia called 'TSK Altay Harekât Planlama Direktifi,' dated August 15 2000. 

The Monitor reported that the documents were exchanged on a secure email system by top General Staff, and that they appear to have been leaked accidentally in a court case file that was submitted as part of probes into the failed military coup against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in July 2016.

Prosecutor Serdar Coşkun – said to be a Erdoğan loyalist – submitted the files as part of the investigation, and was required to hand over all emails from the General Staff from the two months preceding the coup attempted to prosecutors.  

Upon realising their potential mistake, the General Staff reportedly panicked, asking the court to allow them to screen the documents before being presented. According to The Monitor, prosecutors ignored these concerns. 

However, while the plans were named in the documents, further specific details were not included. This is likely due to their classified nature, and therefore not shared through the private network. 

The plans are believed to have been contingencies around developments in Syria with the aim of maintaining offensive and deterrence capabilities on the western front, while moving troops, The Monitor reported. 

More recently the two countries have fought over Cyprus in the 1970s and came close to military hostilities during the Aegean dispute in 1987 and 1996 which has strongly affected the relations between Greece and Turkey since.

They share a border in the east of Greece and the west of Turkey, but also the Aegean sea. 

Turkey also shares a border with Armenia in the east, on the opposite side of the country to Greece. Armenia and Turkey also have a history of hostility, and official relations are non-existent.

The inspiration for the name comes from Çaka Bey, better known as Chaka Bey and Tzachas, who was originally a commander under the Byzantine Empire, before he rebelled and began conquering land.

He is a much revered figure in Turkey, and is even seen as the founder of the first modern Turkish navy.

Anti-Greek rhetoric has become more robust in Turkey under the Erdoğan regime, with some maintaining that Greek islands – including Crete, Rhodes and Lesbos – belong to Turkey, that has increased demands that Greece demilitarises these islands. 


The history of conflict between Greece and Turkey can be traced back hundreds of years, but in the modern era it began when Greece won independence from the Ottoman Empire in 1821.

This led to years of tensions, and since Greece won its independence, four major wars have been fought between the two nations.

In 1897 there was the Greco-Turkish war, then the First Balkan War of 1912 to 1913 saw them clash again.

During the First World War between 1914 and 1918 the two also fought on opposing sides, and finally a second Greco-Turkish War, running from 1919 to 1922.

The pair enjoyed relatively friendly relations in the 1930s and 1940s following the Greco-Turkish population exchange of 1923.

In 1952, both countries joined NATO, but relations deteriorated again in the 1950s due to Cyprus, the 1955 Istanbul pogrom and the expulsion of Istanbul Greeks in the 1960s.

In 1974, Turkey invaded Cyprus and 1996 saw the Imia/Kardak military crisis lead to wider military confrontations during the Aegean dispute. 

A period of relative calm came after 1999 after Greece changed its stance of Turkey joining the European Union, although the country is yet to achieve this.

Since the Erdoğan regime has come into power, tensions have once again begun to rise between the two nations. 


It sure looks like Trump and Adelson have cut a deal on annexation

Mondoweiss



By Philip Weiss and James North June 12, 2020

Sheldon Adelson, the Israel-loving, Iran-war-craving casino baron,
talks to Donald Trump all the time, and for good reason, he and wife
Miriam are the biggest Republican donors, poised to give as much as
$200 million this year. Now that the White House appears to be lying
down for the Israeli government as it moves to annex portions of the
West Bank despite a growing chorus of international condemnation, the
focus should be on Adelson. He has always been a strong supporter of
Israeli expansion, a man who says, “There’s no such thing as a
Palestinian.”

So far, the Adelsons have gotten everything they’ve wanted from our
transactional president: tearing up the Iran deal, moving the embassy
to Jerusalem, defunding Palestinians, recognizing the Golan
annexation, treating settlement expansion as legitimate, even a
presidential medal of freedom for Miriam, etc. Right up to yesterday —
a Trump attack on the ICC in the name of Israel. As Trump once said
when a Republican rival was getting Adelson’s money, Adelson wanted a
“perfect little puppet.”

Most important, the Adelsons got the Trump “peace plan,” which paves
the way for annexation of the West Bank. When Trump announced his
“vision,” there they were in the front row.

[Photo] Sheldon and Miriam Adelson in the background, center left,
applaud as Trump announces his peace plan with Netanyahu at his side,
Jan. 28, 2020. Screenshot.

Especially if Trump loses in November, as appears more and more likely
— this is the Adelsons’ last chance to get annexation. “They speak to
Trump all the time,” Dan Raviv reported on i24 News.

Look at it from Trump’s point of view. He doesn’t care about peace in
the Middle East or Palestinian human rights. He wants one thing, to
win in November, and he needs money.

Why would the Adelsons risk $200 million on a loser? Well, because
it’s not a losing cause; they get their payback now. They figure that
Israeli annexation is permanent no matter what happens to Trump.
“Facts on the ground” is the Israeli way of expansion. The embassy
move will never be reversed by a Joe Biden. So let’s annex.

Today, Sheldon’s Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom is promoting
annexation. “[A]nnexation is Israel’s right, and. . . it poses no
threat to the interests of either the United States or the Jewish
state.” That paper is an important rightwing voice in Israel, and the
Adelsons have been big supporters of Benjamin Netanyahu. So they may
also play a role in Netanyahu’s zeal to annex, when he had a lot of
opportunities to dismiss that policy.

The Guardian said in February that insiders expect the Adelsons to
donate between $100 and $200 million to Trump’s reelection hopes this
year. If that seems like a big lift, look at their track record: The
Adelsons gave more than $100 million to Republican causes in 2016 and
another $123 million during the 2018 election cycle.

McClatchy reported last year that the Adelsons were putting off their
big donations in 2020 until as late as possible, so as not to excite
negative publicity.

And here’s another tell, as we say in poker. Sheldon Adelson is a
funder and board member of the Republican Jewish Coalition; the RJC
calls Trump the most pro-Israel president ever and, big coincidence,
the RJC “is launching a lobbying effort on Capitol Hill to rally
support for Israeli annexation,” according to Jewish Insider. Says the
Guardian:

    The RJC is chaired by the ex-senator Norm Coleman. . . who is said
to have strong ties to Adelson that benefit the RJC and other Super
Pacs and dark money outfits where Coleman is a big player.

    Coleman helps lead fundraising for a Super Pac, the Congressional
Leadership Fund, and a dark money outfit, the American Action Network,
that respectively back Republican House members and their policies and
have received seven-figure checks from the Adelsons in recent
elections.

The Adelsons have seemed to have their way on annexation so far.
Annexation of large parts of the West Bank are greenlighted in Trump’s
deal of the century. Just look at this incredible map in the plan:

[Illustrations] Map of the future Israeli state in the Trump
administration plan. Map of Israel alongside Palestinian “future
state” in green, in the Trump administration plan. (Image: The White
House)

The Adelsons wanted the plan out well ahead of the election, Dan Raviv
of i24 said, so that Israel would be freed to set its own border this
year before November comes and possibly limits its autonomy.

Which is to say, the Adelsons may be the most important actors in this
entire foreign policy discussion. Maybe the media should be telling us
more about them now. . .


 

President Sarkissian holds phone talk with Chargé d’ Affairs of UK Embassy in Armenia

President Sarkissian holds phone talk with Chargé d' Affairs of UK Embassy in Armenia

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 12:51,

YEREVAN, JUNE 13, ARMENPRESS. President of Armenia Armen Sarkissian today had a telephone conversation with Chargé d' Affairs of the British Embassy in Armenia David Moran, the Presidential Office told Armenpress.

Armen Sarkissian congratulated the British diplomat and in the person of him the whole people of the United Kingdom on the national day – the Queen’s Birthday.  

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

Armenia’s coronavirus plight worsens with more than 1,000 more infections in two days

BNE Intellinews
June 3  2020
Armenia's official @Armenia Twitter account has been sending out face mask photography in an effort to encourage Armenians to wear the coverings, which have been compulsory outdoors since May 25.
By bne IntelIiNews June 3, 2020

Armenia has reported more than one thousand more coronavirus (COVID-19) infections registered over June 2 and 3. The country has suffered a steady growth of cases since it started relaxing a nationwide lockdown in mid-April.

June 2’s total of 517 cases was a daily record, while June 3 was only slightly behind with 515, taking the overall total to 10,524, with 170 deaths attributed to COVID-19, the Armenian Health Ministry said.

News of the spike comes shortly after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian announced he and four members of his family had tested positive for the virus.

Health authorities added that 3,427 patients have been logged as recovered from the disease.

Following the lockdown, virtually all sectors of the Armenian economy were allowed to reopen by May 10. The country is impoverished and officials were concerned that a prolonged lockdown could cause irreparable economic damage.

Pashinian's government has so far not indicated that it has any plans to reimpose restrictions. It contends that face masks, social distancing and frequent handwashing should be enough stop the spread of the virus, but Pashinian has demanded that the country’s population of 2.9mn show more discipline in following the specified measures.

“We have to learn to live with the novel coronavirus,” he said.

The PM has isolated himself at his official residence. He is continuing with his activities as head of the government from there.

Azerbaijani Press: Azerbaijan Says It Reserves Right to Use Force to Liberate Occupied Territories

Caspian News, Azerbaijan
June 1 2020

By Mushvig Mehdiyev June 1, 2020

Over 10,000 personnel and more than 120 tanks and armored vehicles of different types attended weeklong military drills from May 18-25 / Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan 

  • The Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has continued for nearly 30 years, with diplomacy failing to achieve any lasting solution. While Armenia evades political negotiations, officials in Azerbaijan say the Caspian country reserves the right to use military force if its lands remain occupied.

    In a statement issued on Sunday, Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said that the Azerbaijani army is entitled to exercise this right to liberate occupied territories in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The ministry explained that such measures, if taken by Azerbaijan, would be devastating and destructive for Armenia compared to what took place in 2015, 2016 and 2018.

    “The only language in which you need to speak with the enemy is the power of arms, with the use of which we will push the occupying forces of Armenia to leave the borders of our territories. Azerbaijani soldiers will certainly achieve this by the power of their weapon," the ministry said in the statement, which was carried by 1news.az.

    The statement follows recent provocations by Armenia in the occupied territory. On May 21, the illegal separatist regime in the occupied lands held a so-called "inauguration" for the region's self-proclaimed "president". Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan traveled to the occupied Shusha city of Azerbaijan and attended the event on his second visit to the region in May. He also called for international recognition of the occupied region's illegitimate separatist regime.

    The government of Azerbaijan described Pashinyan's visits as a threat to peace, a provocation and a violation of obligations under international law and the conflict resolution procedures by the government in Yerevan.

    The conflict in Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region is a result of Armenia's illegal claims to the historically and internationally recognized lands of Azerbaijan. Growing anti-Azerbaijan sentiments in Armenia eventually led to a bloody war in the early 1990s. Armenia's full-blown military campaign against its eastern neighbor enabled it to occupy 20 percent of Azerbaijan's sovereign territory including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts in 1991-1994. The four-year bloody war claimed the lives of 30,000 Azerbaijanis and displaced one million others.

    Armenia has refused to pull its forces out of the occupied Azerbaijani lands despite International calls and four UN Security Council resolutions adopted at the height of the war in 1993. The counterproductive approach of Armenia's officials in diplomatic procedures and fatal violations of the ceasefire by the country's forces regularly trigger hostilities along the Line of Contact in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan.

    The sudden midnight shelling of the civilian villages of Azerbaijan by Armenia's military in 2016 led to the most brutal military actions since the ceasefire took hold in 1994. The four-day war claimed the lives of 320 Armenian soldiers and destroyed 30 tanks and armored vehicles of various types, as well as 25 artillery complexes, according to data compiled by the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan. The military of Azerbaijan managed to liberate 2,000 hectares (4,900 acres) of territory from Armenia's occupation, including the strategic Lalatapa and Talish high hills.

    The next clashes between the Armenian and Azerbaijani armies broke out on May 20 in 2018, known as Gyunnut clashes or Operation Gyunnut. The clashes and subsequent military operations of the Azerbaijani army ended in regaining the control over several occupied villages and strategic positions within the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, an exclave in the southwest of Azerbaijan. By the end of May, the Nakhchivan Separate Combined Arms Army took the control back over Gyunnut, a village that has been annihilated by the Armenian forces in 1992. In addition to the village, Azerbaijan took new positions in two strategic points.

    75% of Armenians dissatisfied with government’s coronavirus response, survey shows

    Panorama, Armenia
    June 1 2020

    Some 75% of Armenians are dissatisfied with the government’s coronavirus containment measures, a new online survey shows.

    The survey has been conducted among 1,700 citizens aged over 18 by the Voice of People expert group.

    According to the survey, 25% of the responders said that they approved of the government’s handling of the outbreak, 56% believed that the measures were not enough to curb the spread of the infection, while 19% said the steps were unjustified.

    Asked about the social and economic impact of the pandemic, in particular on the responders’ families, 15% said they had suffered a job/business loss, 4% said their business were on the verge of survival, 8% said the employer had sent the working member of their family on unpaid leave, 48% said their income had reduced dramatically, while 25% said the pandemic had not affected their social and economic status.

    To the question of whose support the respondents expect in case of income reduction, 27% said they expected support from their relatives and acquaintances, 29% – from the authorities, 3% –  from humanitarian organizations, while 41% could not answer the question.

    The Voice of People reminds that the government has allocated more than $300 million to support the population and businesses.

    Asked whether it has helped people deal with the coronavirus crisis, 6% of the responders said they had not received support from the government although it was provided by law, 57% were not been beneficiaries of support programs, 28% received support, but it was not enough, only 9% said they managed to solve their problems thanks to the support.

    Finally, responding to the question about how the government should expand support to people and businesses, 9% proposed the authorities to grant tax breaks to businesses, 19% called for greater financial support to the population, 15% were in favor of more significant repayment of utility bills, 40% supported all the measures, while 17% could not answer the question. 

    UNHCR helps displaced Syrian-Armenians facing hardship amid pandemic

    Relief Web
    Source: UNHCR
    Posted:
    Originally published:
    Origin: View original

    Syrians who fled conflict to the land of their ancestors in Armenia are struggling to restart their lives amid the COVID-19 pandemic. UNHCR has stepped in to provide support.

    By Anahit Hayrapetyan in Yerevan

    Life was tough for George, his wife Ani and their twins after they fled Syria’s war to Armenia but the COVID-19 pandemic has only made it harder. His work as a taxi driver dried up and Ani’s business baking bread for neighbours stalled.

    They once had a prosperous lifestyle in the Syrian city of Aleppo and they tried as hard as they could to make ends meet in their new home. But as a national lockdown took hold, it was even difficult to pay rent on their apartment on the outskirts of the capital, Yerevan.

    “We have to struggle every day of our life in Armenia relying on the support from others, hoping for a better future for ourselves and our children,” said Ani. “We can hardly pay the bills.”

    The family came to Armenia rather than heading somewhere new because it was the land of their ancestors. In some ways, that decision made their lives easier.

    The family knew the language and, though they had to adapt to a different dialect and customs, it was easier than starting from scratch.

    Around 22,000 Syrians have fled to Armenia since the war began in 2011 of which an estimated 14,000 remain.

    The Syrian-Armenians have links to Armenia dating back a century and the government has welcomed them warmly, in part because of the cultural and historical connection. Their ranks include professionals such as doctors, engineers, IT specialists and teachers and many have business and artisanal skills valued in their new country.

    “We welcome the support given by Armenians to displaced people.”

    But life for many is difficult especially since the pandemic and it is estimated that some 500 families are in dire need of help with sustainable housing.

    UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, is providing humanitarian support in the form of cash assistance and other support to some of the most vulnerable. The support includes vocational training, micro-credit loans, tools to generate income, education in local marketing, as well as counselling and coaching.

    In addition, UNHCR also advocates for the social and economic rights of Syrians and other displaced populations and promotes their inclusion in state programmes and development schemes on an equal basis with locals.

    “We welcome the support given by Armenians to displaced people, who have struggled along with many local people during the COVID-19 pandemic. UNHCR has always advocated for the rights of refugees, asylum-seekers and displaced people in line with our mandate,” said Anna-Carin Öst, UNHCR’s representative in Armenia.

    “Without this support, we would not be able to cope.”

    The emergency assistance, distributed by the non-governmental organization Mission Armenia, has enabled the families to meet basic needs. UNHCR is also providing psycho-social support and counselling during the pandemic.

    “Without this support, we would not be able to cope with the challenges that accumulate day by day,” said George. We started from scratch … but we were reaching some progress… but now the COVID-19 lockdown pushed us backwards, and that has been so painful.”

    “The assistance we receive is life-saving for us,” said Ani, adding that they needed to juggle rent, food and paying for electricity.

    For the 12-year-old twins, Salpie and Sahag*, lockdown has meant doing lessons online on a computer lent to them by their school, even though the internet connection is sometimes shaky.

    Salpie said she wanted to become a singer, while Sahag, remembering the country where he spent his early childhood, imagined a career that could give his hopes for a better life concrete form.

    “I want to become an engineer and construct beautiful houses with gardens. One day, I will build a big house like the one we had in Aleppo,” he said.

    *Names changed for protection reasons

    Primary country: Armenia
    Other country: Syrian Arab Republic
    Source: UN High Commissioner for Refugees
    Format: News and Press Release
    Theme: Health
    Vulnerable group: Refugees
    Disaster type: Epidemic
    Language:

    https://reliefweb.int/report/armenia/unhcr-helps-displaced-syrian-armenians-facing-hardship-amid-pandemic

    Asbarez: How Do You Prepare ‘Populations for Peace’? You Kill and Maim Them


    The U.S. will defund Artsakh de-mining in favor “preparing populations for peace.”

    BY ARA KHACHATOURIAN

    After months of dillydallying, the United States finally went on record, through its envoy in Armenia, Lynne Tracy, to announce that it was suspending life-saving humanitarian aid for Artsakh de-mining efforts and channeling those funds toward the opaque concept of “preparing populations for peace,” which in Karabakh conflict mediation parlance means forcing a generally pro-Azerbaijani concept down the throats of Armenians in Artsakh, Armenia and around the world.

    “We are very proud of the work that we supported through the de-mining program to help in a humanitarian way the people of Nagorno Karabakh. We think the investment of $17 million dollars over nearly the past 20 years [only a fraction of the $4 million annual aid Congress has allocated for Artsakh over the years] has been extremely successful,” said Tracy on Thursday during a Facebook Live chat in response to a question from the audience.

    Then she declared: “And so what we are starting to look at now as the de-mining—our involvement in the de-mining – has concluded is to turn to another area—preparing populations for peace, which is in support of the work of the Minsk Group, to see what kind of activities we can conduct in this space to help toward that goal of achieving a lasting peaceful settlement of the conflict.”

    This means that our hard-earned tax dollars will now go toward causing injury or possible death of innocent civilians in Artsakh, a fraction of whom were actually engaged in the daily de-mining efforts carried out by The HALO Trust.

    Instead, we, as Americans, will be paying for the nebulous concept of “preparing populations for peace,” in a climate where despite a call for a global cease-fire during the COVID-19 crisis, the Azerbaijani armed forces have not only not ceased their attacks on Artsakh military targets, but have continuously shelled civilian ones in Armenia, injuring soldiers, children and causing damage to property. At the same time, our tax dollars also will be spent on a $100 million increase in U.S. military aid to Azerbaijan, a fact omitted by Tracy during her presentation.

    Of course, Ambassador Tracy, as a representative of a co-chairing country of the OSCE Minsk Group, had no words of condemnation toward official Baku, which at the time of the Facebook Live presentation, was wrapping up a four-day large-scale military exercises—war games—amassing heavy military equipment on its border with Artsakh and Armenia. On Monday, the Eurasia Daily Monitor reported that the official YouTube channel of Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry featured a video showing Turkish-manufactured multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) stationed on the border of Armenia and Nakhichevan.

    Why should that surprise anyone? Successive administrations have paraded a slew of diplomats with dubious ties to Turkish, Azerbaijani and Russian interests as the U.S. co-chairs of the Minsk Group. Matthew Bryza, James Warlick and Richard Hoagland come to mind as disgraceful representatives Washington appointed to mediate the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    Since the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, representing the U.S., France and Russia, took over the mediation of the Karabakh conflict settlement almost three decades ago, the “principles” or the proposals based on which the negotiations have advanced, all have aimed at cornering—or bullying—Armenia to make concessions, while Azerbaijan has fine-tuned a strategy of military build-up and rhetoric that saw its president, Ilham Aliyev, claiming on numerous occasions that Yerevan was part of historic Azerbaijan—a country that doesn’t appear on any map of the world until 1918.

    This brings us to the extremely dangerous—and rather absurd—“Madrid Principles,” based on which the Karabakh talks have been taking place for the better part of a decade and a half. These principles call for among other provisions the “return of territories” to Azerbaijan; the return of “displaced” Azerbaijanis to their homes in Artsakh-proper; “preparing populations for peace”; and (time permitting) a determination of a status for Artsakh. (Incidentally, this is the very solution official Ankara was calling for as a pre-condition to signing the even more dangerous Turkey-Armenia Protocols). All of these provisions ignore the free will of the people of Artsakh.

    At the time the sides agreed to use the “Madrid Principles” as a basis for the Karabakh settlement talks. Since then, however, we have seen that this formula simply doesn’t work. Not only does it not work, it provides the co-chairing entities—U.S., Russia, Europe—with ammunition to advance their regional agendas, most often knowing full-well that by doing so they will be sowing domestic instability, which again is preferable for these powers to push their plans forward.

    Since the introduction of the Madrid Principles, Azerbaijan has paraded the ax-murderer Ramil Safarov as a national hero; has continually violated the cease-fire agreement resulting in the deaths of hundreds of Armenian soldiers; and staged a full-throttle attack on Artsakh in April 2016, the ramifications of which are still felt on the ground every day. Azerbaijan has also bolstered its military by upping its defense spending. The $100 million the U.S. is allocating for military assistance to Azerbaijan dwarfs in comparison to the $5 billion Baku is spending to acquire arms from Israel.

    This September, Artsakh will mark the 28th anniversary of its declaration of independence from the Soviet Union. Despite all our war and daily military threats, the people and authorities of Artsakh, with the engagement of all Armenians around the world, have adopted and strengthened democracy in Artsakh (without any financial assistance by the U.S.), the most recent example of which were the presidential and parliamentary elections that saw the inauguration of a new president and a convening of a new National Assembly on Wednesday.

    Artsakh was liberated—fair and square—by our fellow Armenians who sacrificed their lives for the homeland. Today, the Artsakh borders are being protected by a new generation of soldiers, some of whom are the same age as those here who are upset that their high school graduation has been interrupted by COVID-19. These soldiers told me when I visited the border post in Talish, Artsakh a few years back that they were born on that soil and they will die for it and on it. One of them might have been Taron Poghosyan, the unlucky soldier who died a few weeks back because he stepped on a mine.

    I am prepared for peace. Aren’t you?

    CIVILNET.In Light of Coronavirus Pandemic, Armenia’s Economy Expected to Contract for First Time in Over a Decade

    CIVILNET.AM

    15 May, 2020 21:08

    By Mark Dovich

    The coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on markets worldwide. In Armenia, an average growth rate of -3.5 percent is forecast for 2020.

    According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), a multilateral developmental investment bank founded after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, countries in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus are expected to be “severely impacted” by the crisis due to the “tightening [of] global financial markets, strong pressure on domestic foreign exchange markets, and reduced foreign demand for exports” from the region.

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF), too, has projected global growth to fall to -3.0 percent in 2020 and per capita incomes to decline in more than 170 countries around the world. According to the IMF, it is the first time that both developed and developing countries have experienced economic recessions at the same time since the Great Depression nearly a century ago.

    Similarly, during a press conference in late April, Atom Janjughazyan, Armenia’s Minister of Finance, announced the government would be revising the country’s predicted growth rate this year down to -2.0 percent from an original forecast of 4.9 percent. As a point of comparison, Armenia’s economy expanded by 7.6 percent in 2019. If the forecast holds, it will be the first time the country’s economy has contracted since the global financial crisis of 2009.

    According to Janjughazyan, tax earnings, which comprise the vast majority of government revenues in Armenia, are expected to be particularly hard-hit. Additionally, the government’s external debt is likely to rise this year, though Janjughazyan emphasized that Armenia continues to be considered a country with relatively low levels of external debt. Finally, exchange rates for Armenia’s currency, the dram, have proven relatively stable against the U.S. dollar so far.

    The sobering announcement challenges previous predictions that Armenia would enjoy positive, though modest, economic growth in 2020 despite the economic ramifications of the ongoing global coronavirus crisis.

    A recent EBRD report highlighted two additional factors that are likely to affect Armenia’s economic outlook. First, the global economic downturn has resulted in significant declines in commodity prices, particularly hydrocarbons and metals. Armenia’s economic wellbeing is quite sensitive to these prices, as the mineral industry represents a majority sector of the country’s economy. About 30 percent of Armenia’s total exports are in copper ore, with another roughly 30 percent of the country’s exports in other ore concentrates, metals, and gems, particularly gold and molybdenum.

    Second, the EBRD predicts that a considerable drop in remittances as a result of the global economic crisis will put pressure on household disposable incomes in Armenia this year. The country’s economy remains heavily dependent on remittances from Armenian migrant workers and Armenian diaspora communities. Armenia receives roughly two billion U.S. dollars every year in remittances, which represent about 15 percent of total GDP. 

    A third critical factor is Armenia’s substantial economic connection to Russia, which means that any economic developments in Moscow have meaningful ripple effects in Yerevan. Since 2015, Armenia has been a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russia-led economic union that unites five post-Soviet countries in an integrated single market. Trade with Russia accounts for about 25 percent of Armenia’s total turnover, making Russia Armenia’s largest external market. In addition, nearly half of the remittances sent to Armenia every year comes from Russia.

    Accordingly, the collapse of global petroleum prices, to which Russia’s economic wellbeing is strongly tied, is likely to hit Armenia as well. As a result, Russia’s economy is expected to contract by 4.5 percent this year, according to the EBRD. Compounding these issues, Russia has now recorded the world’s second-largest number of coronavirus infections after the United States, with over 250,000 cases.

    News website director on threats from brother of Armenia PM’s assistant

    News.am, Armenia
    News website director on threats from brother of Armenia PM's assistant News website director on threats from brother of Armenia PM's assistant

    23:27, 13.05.2020