ANKARA
Turkey is set to have another busy foreign policy year in 2021 that is expected to be marked by multilateralism and flexibility.
After an active 2020 with the country's humanitarian and proactive foreign policy, Turkish policy is likely to focus on prominent agenda items including developments in the Gulf and Middle East, as well as the new US administration, issues on Cyprus and the EU and Russia.
Signals coming from Turkey's diplomatic missions indicate Ankara is planning to prioritize diplomacy in its foreign policy once again, but will not refrain from taking action and using its "smart power" if the need arises.
Gulf region reconciliation
The end of the Gulf Crisis — which began in 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain imposed a blockade on Qatar — is of great importance for Turkey, which has advocated dialogue since the eruption of the ordeal. The reconciliation process has the potential to affect Ankara's relations with regional actors, such as Riyadh and Cairo.
Turkey currently maintains contacts with Egypt via intelligence agencies and foreign ministries to improve bilateral ties, with both countries trying not to oppose each other on international platforms. Further, there are intentions in both countries to work on a "roadmap" to fix bilateral ties.
Relations between Ankara and Riyadh also appear to be in a positive dynamic. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's telephone call with Saudi King Salman bin Abdelaziz ahead of a G-20 Leaders Summit, as well as positive remarks on Turkey by Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, the Saudi foreign minister, indicate relations might improve in 2021.
Biden era in US
Turkey and the US share deep historical bonds and stand as NATO allies. But, the two have yet to resolve issues that have emerged recently.
Some of the most thorny of these issues are the US support to the YPG — the Syrian offshoot of the PKK terror group that has killed tens of thousands of people in Turkey; free movement in the US of members of the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO) which is behind a deadly failed coup attempt of 2016; the extradition of FETO ringleader Fethullah Gulen from the US; Ankara's procurement of Russian S-400 missile defense systems and sanctions imposed on Ankara as a result of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
While Turkey has signaled it is ready to continue relations with President-elect Joe Biden, who is set to take the presidency Jan. 20, and take essential steps to resolve those issues, the coming US administration has also pointed to the importance of ties with Turkey, a NATO ally and key regional actor. Both countries have agreed to establish a joint working group to discuss CAATSA sanctions.
In April 2017, when protracted efforts to buy an air defense system from the US proved futile, Turkey signed a contract with Russia to acquire its state-of-art S-400 missile shield.
US officials voiced opposition to their deployment, claiming they would be incompatible with NATO systems and would expose F-35 jets to possible Russian subterfuge.
Turkey, however, stressed that the S-400s would not be integrated into NATO systems, and poses no threat to the alliance or its armaments.
Turkish officials have repeatedly proposed a working group to examine the technical compatibility issue.
Anticipation of 'positive agenda' with EU
Despite a tense period in EU-Turkey ties last year — partly due to the escalatory behavior of some member countries — the two sides are expected to share a "positive agenda" in 2021.
EU Council President Charles Michel and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are set to visit Turkey, with the main issue up for discussion being the 2016 migration agreement, visa liberalization and updating of the Customs Union Agreement.
Turkey, which seeks to become a full member of the union as one of its strategic goals, has declared it would in the near future undertake reforms, which might contribute positively to relations with the bloc as Turkish-EU ties are expected to gain momentum in the new year.
As for developments during the past year in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey still favors a fair solution to the ongoing dispute in the region surrounding energy drilling rights; Brussels and Ankara are still working for a multilateral conference to tackle these disputes.
In another positive move, Turkey in late 2020 limited activities of one of its drilling vessels, the Oruc Reis, to the gulf its southern province Antalya.
Amid recent tensions in the region, Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration increased pressure on other EU members to impose sanctions on Turkey during the EU leaders' summit Dec. 11.
Turkey, which has the longest continental coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean, has rejected maritime boundary claims of Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration and stressed that the excessive claims violate the sovereign rights of both Turkey and the Turkish Cypriots.
Ankara has sent several drill ships in the recent weeks to explore for energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, asserting its own rights in the region, as well as those of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Turkish leaders have repeatedly stressed that Ankara is in favor of resolving all outstanding problems in the region through international law, good neighborly relations, dialogue and negotiation.
New roadmap with France
After Turkey's relations with EU member France soured recently, the two countries now appear to be moving toward normalization within the context of bilateral ties with members of the bloc.
Comments from political actors suggest parties are working on a "roadmap" and will re-establish relations.
In addition, Turkey has repeatedly said it was ready to sit at the negotiating table with Greece to resolve outstanding issues through exploratory talks.
Alternative solution to Cyprus issue
Turkey and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) are currently pushing for a two-state solution to the dispute on Cyprus after talks for a federation model on the island have gone nowhere after 52 years.
The two-state solution proposal is expected to be discussed in 2021, under an unofficial 5+UN format.
The island of Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when a Greek Cypriot coup was followed by violence against the island's Turks and Ankara's intervention as a guarantor power.
It has seen an on-and-off peace process in recent years, including a failed 2017 initiative in Switzerland under the auspices of guarantor countries Turkey, Greece and the UK.
The TRNC was founded in 1983.
– Support for Azerbaijan to continue
One of the most significant developments in 2020 for Azerbaijan and its ally, Turkey, was the liberation of lands in the Upper Karabakh region that had remained under Armenian occupation for decades.
The relationship between the two countries, often dubbed as "one nation, two states," is set to make its mark in yet another year.
– Perspective of normalization with Israel
While Turkey and Israel have conducted their relations on the level of charge d'affaires instead of ambassadors since 2018, recent comments by politicians suggest 2021 may see improved relations.
Erdogan previously said both countries held talks at the intelligence level and that the main reason behind the dispute was Israel's policies on Palestine.
The Turkish leader also said his country wanted better relations with Tel Aviv, indicating it could be achieved in coming days if necessary conditions came to pass.
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, for his part, said there were multiple mechanisms and institutions through which Israel and Turkey could establish communications.
He also noted the possibility of energy cooperation, namely by carrying Israeli hydrocarbons through Turkey, which he said would be an efficient route.
– Supporting political process in Syria, Libya
Turkey has indicated it would continue in 2021 to back the ongoing political process to end the Syrian conflict.
With its military campaigns — Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, Peace Spring and Spring Shield — Turkey made significant gains in its fight against terrorism and is likely to step up its efforts to ensure the safe return of Syrian asylum seekers to their native country.
Cavusoglu confirmed that Turkey would prioritize the return of Syrians and the political dialogue in the country in 2021.
Another major issue for Turkey in Syria this year is set to be the failure of the US and Russia to make good on their promise to push the YPG/PKK terror group from a strip of land stretching 30-kilometers (19 miles) deep from Syria's northern border with Turkey.
Similarly, Turkey is expected to support the legitimate Libyan government and the political process in the North African country.
– 'Asia Anew' policy to gain momentum
Turkey's relations with Asia, which has begun to emerge as the world's economic center, is likely to pick up speed in line with Ankara's "Asia Anew" policy launched in 2019 to boost ties.
As part of this policy, Turkey formed an action plan for activities in more than 30 countries. Furthermore, the country is likely to play an important role in the Belt and Road initiative and the revival of the Silk Road.
– Strategic ties with Moscow
Despite the fact that Turkey and Russia stood at different sides in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan, they still managed to maintain emphasis on dialogue and are expected to keep channels open in 2021, despite the challenges.
As for Syria, both sides are expected to maintain cooperation on their March 5, 2020 cease-fire agreement in Idlib and keep negotiations going in the Astana format.
On March 5, Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin announced they reached a cease-fire agreement in Idlib, the last opposition stronghold in Syria, between opposing rebels and Bashar al-Assaf regime forces.
At the same time, they appear set to continue cooperating in line with their joint observatory center in Azerbaijan following Baku's recent victory against Armenian forces in Upper Karabakh.
On top of these, Turkey and Russia are expected to maintain dialogue on other issues related to the S-400 air defense systems, as well as the Akkuyu Nuclear Plant, TurkStream pipeline and tourism.
*Writing by Ali Murat Alhas
15:25, 5 January, 2021
YEREVAN, JANUARY 5, ARMENPRESS. President of Artsakh Arayik Harutyunyan received today Armenia’s Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Mesrop Arakelyan, the Presidential Office told Armenpress.
Issues relating to solving the social problems of the residents of Artsakh who remained without shelters due to the recent war and have temporarily settled in Armenia were discussed during the meeting.
The Artsakh President highlighted the importance of social assistance programs being implemented by the Armenian government, expressing hope that they will manage to ensure a secure social environment for the Artsakh people with joint efforts.
Minister Arakelyan assured that assisting the people of Artsakh is one of the main priorities of the ministry and added that the government is planning to launch new projects for that purpose.
January 3, 2020
Ahead of the new year, members of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, headed by the chairman of its Supreme Council of Armenia and the coordinator of the National Salvation Movement Ishkhan Saghatelyan visited Yerablur National military cemetery on Thursday to honor those who have given their lives in defense of the homeland.
Turkey’s national flag carrier, for the first time ever, conducted an Azerbaijan-bound flight using Armenian airspace on Saturday, according to unconfirmed reports by the media.
Passenger aircrafts belonging to Azerbaijan and Turkey generally use Georgian airspace for Baku-Istanbul flights.
There has been no official statement regarding an agreement yet, however, reports claim that Armenia was forced to open its airspace.
Some Armenian media outlets alleged that if Yerevan does not open its airspace, Russian aircrafts will barred from flying to Karabakh and Armenia via Azerbaijan.
Liberation of Karabakh
Relations between the former Soviet republics have been tense since 1991 when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, recognized as Azerbaijani territory, and seven adjacent regions.
Fresh clashes erupted on Sept. 27, 2020, when the Armenian army launched attacks on civilians and Azerbaijani forces and violated several humanitarian cease-fire agreements.
During the 44-day conflict, Azerbaijan liberated several cities and nearly 300 settlements and villages from occupation.
The two countries signed a Russian-brokered agreement on Nov. 10 to end fighting and work toward a comprehensive resolution.
However, the Armenian army violated the cease-fire on Dec. 13 and martyred three Azerbaijani soldiers in Khojavend's Sur village and a soldier and a civilian near the Hadrut town, according to the Defense Ministry.
The truce is seen as a victory for Azerbaijan and a defeat for Armenia, whose armed forces have been withdrawing in line with the agreement. Since then, Armenians have consistently called for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s resignation.
January 1, 2020
Armenian Revolutionary Federation Western U.S.
Last year was one of great sorrow and tribulation for all humanity. For the Armenian Nation it was a year marred by calamity and severe losses.
However hard the difficulties that emerge for our nation and party, and despite all the challenges that are facing our homeland and its people, the ranks of the ARF Western U.S., as part of the global ARF family, welcome the new year with renewed commitment and with the conviction to overcome all challenges.
On this new year, first and foremost we bow our heads to the memory of those who gave their life in service and defense of our homeland and nation. We also wish the Armenian Army, the supporters of our homeland and the entire Armenian nation a happy new year, wishing them health and a brighter future.
ARF Western U.S. Central Committee
15:36,
STEPANAKERT, DECEMBER 30, ARMENPRESS. The remains of 22 Armenian servicemen were found during search operations in Fizuli, Hadrut and the areas in between Kubatlu and Khndzoresk, the Artsakh State Service of Emergency Situations reported. This brings the total number of bodies discovered so far to 1133, State Service of Emergency Situations spokesperson Hunan Tadevosyan told ARMENPRESS.
“Today, 1 search team is working in Fizuli. On December 28 the Azerbaijani side did not allow to conduct search operations in Hadrut. The next day it was possible to negotiate and continue the work. Such cases happened in different parts. The martial law remains in place in Artsakh and therefore we plan to continue working in the next days in emergency mode,” he said.
Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan
During the protest actions outside the National Assembly, the police detained citizens by the order of the newly appointed commander of the State Protection Service of the National Security Service, Sargis Hovhannisyan, 'Media Advocate' initiative reported on Monday.
According to the source, PARA TV news agency cameraman Vazgen Hambardzumyan has been among the detainees. "Such behavior of the police is unacceptable. Recently, the police have shown several manifestations of intolerant attitude towards media representatives," the initiative said, adding the incident is a direct blow to the freedom of speech. TNoting that the police have no right to hinder the professional work of the cameraman, 'Media Advocate' initiative condemns the action of the police and demands the immediate release of Vazgen Hambardzumyan, who was doing nothing but carrying out his professional duties.
Azerbaijani reports on renewed clashes could be “information provocation”, says Armenian military
09:15,
YEREVAN, DECEMBER 28, ARMENPRESS. Several Azerbaijani news outlets are reporting about alleged resumption of battles between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops near the village of Togh of the Hadrut region. The reports mention victims and wounded.
The Ministry of Defense of Armenia commented on the reports, noting:
“We remind that the village of Togh is under the complete control of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces.
The Artsakh Defense Army is strictly adhering to the ceasefire, no unit has taken part in any action in the given section, moreover, no emergency incident relating to the Artsakh Defense Army units was recorded.
Nevertheless, the Armenian side is attempting to find out additional information, not ruling out the possibility that we are dealing with an Azerbaijani information provocation.”
Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan
DISCLAIMER: All opinions in this column reflect the views of the author(s), not of EURACTIV Media network.
There are already signs for the potential transformation of the conflictual environment around Nagorno-Karabakh into one of cooperation and joint projects, writes Vasif Huseynov.
Vasif Huseynov is a senior adviser at the Center of Analysis of International Relations of Azerbaijan.
The collapse of the Soviet Union restored the independent statehood of the three countries in the South Caucasus – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, but it took away the largely peaceful relations between or within them.
The region succumbed to extraordinary violence and dangerous instability thanks to often externally-guided separatist initiatives and irredentist policies.
Although the bloodshed was curtailed in Georgia following its 2008 war with Russia, it persisted in the southern part of the region due to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over the occupied territories of the latter.
The conflict has been truly a handcuff for fully-fledged regional cooperation, dramatically increasing the costs of regional transportation and energy routes, and as such also alienating the two people increasingly more against each other.
The recent 44-day war (27 September- 10 November 2020) between Armenia and Azerbaijan has, in a certain sense, generated a unique chance for the restoration of peace between the two nations, who had lived peacefully in the past and continue to live so in other parts of the world where they are settled.
There are several reasons why the post-war situation in the region can be deemed as conducive to lasting peace and security.
First and foremost, the war did not end with a maximalist victory or total defeat of one side against the other. This was a potential scenario before the ceasefire as acknowledged by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan who declared that Armenia “would be in a worse situation”, if the war did not end on 10 November.
Notably, in contrast to the calls of some nationalist groups, the Azerbaijani government demonstrated restraint and stopped the war immediately after Armenia agreed to withdraw its armed forces, as President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan suggested from the very beginning of the war.
According to the ceasefire document signed on 10 November through the mediation of Russia, Armenians will continue to live in the territories of Karabakh and will be even provided with a corridor to maintain free communication with Armenia.
Azerbaijan has also agreed to the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the Karabakh region who safeguard the ceasefire regime.
In stark contrast to the fate of ethnic Azerbaijanis of the Karabakh region who were forcefully expelled by Armenian forces after the war in 1990s and never allowed to return, Armenians are living in Karabakh region of Azerbaijan and Baku expressed the intention to accommodate them as citizens with rights and privileges just as all other minorities in the country such as Jews, Russians, Kurds and others.
Secondly, the Azerbaijani government has stated officially that it considers the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as resolved. “We have entered the process of the restoration of peaceful coexistence stage in the resolution of the conflict”, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayromov announced in late November.
The consideration of the conflict as resolved without a total victory is extremely important to reach a peace treaty as it leaves room for reconcilation between the governments, and also between the people of the two countries.
There are already signs for the potential transformation of the conflictual environment into one of cooperation and joint projects. This is noteworthy that such messages are given by both sides.
For example, Armenia’s newly appointed minister of economy, talking about the long-term possibilities for regional cooperation, did not rule out the establishment of trade relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
For the Azerbaijani government, there is a good opportunity to launch a larger cooperation platform including the countries of the South Caucasus and the countries neighbouring the region, namely Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Stating that he had already discussed the issue with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey, President Aliyev said, in the press conference with his Turkish counterpart on 10 December in Baku, that “If the Armenian leadership draws the right conclusions from the war, renounces its unfounded claims and looks ahead, then they can also take a place on this platform. We are open to this… We must turn this page over, we must end the enmity.”
President Erdoğan did likewise support the initiative saying that this was supported also by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. He made clear that the platform would include infrastructure, political, diplomatic and many other issues.
Babken Tunyan, the head of an Armenian parliament committee on economic issues from the parliamentary majority My Step alliance, did not rule out Armenia’s participation in the platform, noting that “If participation in any platform corresponds to [Armenia’s] interests, then it should participate”.
The peace messages from the conflicting sides and external stakeholders raises a hope that it can be eventually possible for the “Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict” to become as a matter of the past, as President Aliyev stated.
This all creates a new situation that should not be taken granted by anyone who is interested in building peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and ending the longstanding hostilities often accompanied by violence.