Author: George Mamian

Jewish News Syndicate


By Eran Lerman
Oct. 21, 2021

[The implications of Iranian pressure on Baku extend well beyond the
southern Caucasus, but Israel must tread carefully in this complex
region.]

October 21, 2021 / Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security) The
extensive Iranian military maneuvers near Azerbaijan’s borders at the
end of September were designed to intimidate the leadership in Baku,
to deter it from curbing Iran’s illegal trade with Armenia and to
force Azerbaijan to downgrade the country’s strategic relationship
with Israel. In response, Israel should be careful not to make any
commitments that cannot be fulfilled. However, Israel should alert
Russia and others of the consequences to Iran of such threatening
behavior.

The roots of Azeri-Iranian tensions

Iran’s hostility towards Azerbaijan began long before the latest
crisis erupted. The tensions go back to the latter’s emergence as an
independent nation (after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in
1991) and the fear in Tehran that this might revive Azeri nationalism
within Iran’s borders. This fear was (and to some extent still is) fed
by memories of the period during and immediately after World War Two,
when Iran was carved into British and Soviet occupation zones.

The Soviets turned Iran’s northern regions into two autonomous Marxist
national republics—one Azeri and the other Kurdish. The Soviet Union
hoped to enshrine their independence (as Soviet dependencies) even
after the war ended. It was only when the Truman administration
sternly warned Stalin (backed by its nuclear monopoly, at the time) of
the consequences that Stalin backed down and retreated from Iran.

A significant part of Iran’s population (often estimated at above 20
percent) has Azeri roots (as does Iranian Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei). In northwestern Iran there are still occasional expressions
of separatist sentiment, salient enough to warrant close surveillance
and repression by the Iranian authorities. Moreover, in the first
round of the war over the Nagorno Karabakh province (or Artzach, as
the Armenians call it), Tehran supported Armenian Christian forces
against the Azeris. The latter are Muslims, and indeed some 60 percent
or more of them are Shi’ites. However, their tolerant and liberal
interpretation of Islam does not sit well with that of the
mullah-based regime in Iran.

The Azeris lost a significant part of their territory in the first
Nagorno-Karabakh war against Armenia. This was a war for control of a
province largely populated by Armenians but annexed in the Soviet era
to Azerbaijan. The struggle began even before the Soviet collapse and
escalated into full-scale confrontation in 1993-1994. Following their
defeat, Azeri leadership under Gaidar Aliev (father of the current
president) turned to Israel for help. This resulted in a
well-established relationship (although Azerbaijan has yet to open an
embassy in Israel).

After the second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, in which the tables
were turned, much was made of Israel’s role (alongside that of Turkey)
in changing the balance of power. This, in turn, fed Iranian suspicion
and resentment, which also is based on Iran’s interpretation of the
Israeli operational intelligence presence in Azerbaijan in recent
years.

Iran’s campaign of intimidation

The Iranian military’s large-scale exercise last month near the border
with Azerbaijan was perceived in Baku as an act of intimidation, and
this was confirmed by the statements coming out of Iran. Tehran cast
doubt on Aliyev’s political maturity (as compared with his late,
highly experienced father); muttered darkly about “foreign influences”
in Baku; and openly threatened to attack if such “influences” (i.e.,
the Israeli presence in Azerbaijan) persist.

Adding to the sense of crisis was the recent decision by Azerbaijan to
end the smuggling of oil from Iran to Armenia in falsely identified
vehicles, activity which violates Western sanctions against Iran. This
may well have been interpreted in Tehran as a provocation, possibly
instigated by “external influences”—and thus as one more reason to
bring pressure to bear on Baku. However, this alone is insufficient
reason for such dramatic measures by Iran.

The overt flexing of Iran’s muscles is indeed part of a broader
pattern. Iran engages widely in violence by proxy, via the Houthis in
Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza.
Occasionally it also acts directly, as in this case.

As tensions rise over Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran apparently hopes
to intimidate countries in the region and warn them against offering
any assistance to Israel and other forces aligned against the Iranian
regime. Ultimately, Iran seeks to frustrate what they suspect to be
Israel’s plans and to deter Israeli leadership from acting against
Iran.

Thus, the implications of Iranian pressure on Azerbaijan extend well
beyond the confines of the southern Caucasus. It adds to a growing
list of points of friction where the Iranian regime is overtly seeking
to test the limits of international, Western and ultimately Israeli
(and Arab) responses.

What can be done?

Israel must tread carefully in this complex region, where ancient
hatreds often dominate. Overt statements should be avoided. While the
existing understandings with the Azeri government should be upheld and
discreet intelligence sharing should continue, it would be unwise for
Israel to make any commitments that cannot be realized, and which may
exacerbate regional tensions.

At the same time, at the diplomatic level and as part of a broader
discussion on Iran’s intentions and actions, Israel cannot ignore the
Iranian pattern of intimidation. This should be one of the focal
points in Israel’s ongoing effort to alert the U.S. administration and
its Western allies to the escalating danger inherent in leaving
Iranian actions unanswered.

Moreover, the West is not the only relevant interlocutor. Russia, with
which Israel has open and effective channels of communication, may
have its own issues with the Azeri leadership. Russia is not likely to
view with equanimity a foreign power threatening military action
against any part of what the Russians refer to as the “near abroad”
(meaning, the former Soviet space). Nor will Turkey, which offered
Azerbaijan active support in the war of 2020, accept Iranian
aggressive behavior. With all necessary caution, this is a point to be
raised in the context of Turkey’s attempt to patch up relations with
key Arab players who share Israel’s concerns about Iran.

Ultimately, Iran is unlikely to risk a confrontation with a well-armed
neighbor, in difficult terrain and with unforeseeable consequences.
But the way Tehran now uses military intimidation, as well as terror
by proxy and other means of threatening regional players, must become
a factor in the formulation of Western policy towards Iran in this
decisive period.

*
IDF Col. (res) Eram Lerman is vice president of the Jerusalem
Institute for Strategic Studies. He was deputy director for foreign
policy and international affairs at the National Security Council in
the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office. He held senior posts in IDF
Military Intelligence for more than 20 years and teaches in the Middle
East Studies program at Shalem College in Jerusalem.

This article was first published by the Jerusalem Institute for
Strategic Studies.


 

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                                        Tuesday, October 5, 2021


Lithuania Donates More Coronavirus Vaccines To Armenia

        • Marine Khachatrian

A vial labeled "Moderna coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine" placed on 
displayed Moderna logo, March 24, 2021.


Armenia received on Tuesday another batch of coronavirus vaccines donated to it 
by Lithuania.

The 50,000 doses of the Spikevax jab manufactured by the U.S. company Moderna 
were delivered to Yerevan’s Zvartnots airport and handed over to the Armenian 
Ministry of Health. The ministry thanked the Lithuanian government in a 
statement that announcement the shipment.

The Baltic state already provided 25,000 doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine 
to Armenia in early September.

The Moderna shots donated by it are the first American vaccines that will be 
used in Armenia. Gayane Sahakian, the deputy director of the Armenian Center for 
Disease Control and Prevention, said they will be distributed to all policlinics 
and other vaccination centers across the country and made available the 
population by the end of this week.

Armenians have until now been inoculated with vaccines developed by Russia, 
China as well as Oxford University and the Anglo-Swedish company Astra Zeneca.

Health Minister Anahit Avanesian said in July that Armenia will receive this 
fall 50,000 doses of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine and 300,000 doses 
of the Novavax jab. Shortly afterwards the Armenian government allocated funds 
for the purchase of 300,000 doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. None of those 
vaccines have been imported yet, however.

“We will have Pfizer vaccines, but I don’t know when,” Sahakian told RFE/RL’s 
Armenian Service.

According to the Ministry of Health, just over 517,000 vaccine shots were 
administered in the country of about 3 million as of October 4. Only about 
165,000 of its residents were fully vaccinated.

The government has taken administrative measures to try to accelerate the slow 
pace of its immunization campaign launched in April. A recent directive signed 
by Avanesian obligates virtually all public and private sector employees 
refusing vaccination to take coronavirus tests twice a month at their own 
expense. The requirement took effect on October 1.

The daily number of officially confirmed coronavirus cases in Armenia has slowly 
but steadily increased since June. The Ministry of Health reported on Tuesday 
morning 891 new cases and 24 coronavirus-related deaths.



Opposition Lawmaker Challenges Travel Ban

        • Marine Khachatrian

Armenian - Armen Gevorgian, a former senior aide to ex-President Robert 
Kocharian, speaks to journalists in a court building in Yerevan, January 29, 
2019.


A senior opposition lawmaker standing trial on what he sees as politically 
motivated charges on Tuesday again asked a court in Yerevan to allow him to 
attend sessions of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) in 
Strasbourg.

Armen Gevorgian is the sole full-fledged opposition member of the Armenian 
parliament’s delegation in the PACE. He is affiliated with the Hayastan alliance 
led by former President Robert Kocharian.

Kocharian and Gevorgian face bribery charges, strongly denied by them, in an 
ongoing trial that began more than two years ago. They both were banned from 
leaving Armenia without the court’s permission.

Anna Danibekian, the judge presiding over the trial, refused last month to let 
Gevorgian participate in the PACE’s autumn session held on September 27-30. Two 
other opposition lawmakers, who have the status of “substitutes” in the 8-member 
delegation in the Strasbourg-based assembly, boycotted the session out of 
solidarity with him.

During the latest court hearing on the high-profile case, Gevorgian’s lawyer, 
Lusine Sahakian, petitioned Danibekian to lift the travel ban, saying that it is 
unjustified. The trial prosecutors objected to the request.

The judge did not grant it while leaving open the possibility of allowing 
Gevorgian to travel abroad later on. She said she will consider such permissions 
on a case-by-case basis.

Gevorgian, 48, is also the chairman of the Armenian parliament’s standing 
committee on “regional and Eurasian integration.” He was an influential aide to 
Kocharian when the latter ruled the country from 1998-2008. Gevorgian also 
served as deputy prime minister from 2008-2014 in the administration of then 
President Serzh Sarkisian.

Earlier in September, Danibekian refused to allow Kocharian to visit Moscow at 
the invitation of Russia’s ruling party. Hayastan condemned her decision, saying 
that it was made under strong government pressure.

The judge had repeatedly given Kocharian permission to travel to Moscow before 
the June 20 parliamentary elections in which the ex-president’s bloc finished 
second.



Iran Offers To Help Armenia Build Bypass Roads

        • Naira Nalbandian

An Azerbaijani checkpoint set up at on the main road conneting Armeia to Iran, 
September 14, 2021


Iran is ready to help Armenia build highways connecting the two neighboring 
states and bypassing Azerbaijani-controlled territory, a senior Iranian 
government official said during a visit to Yerevan on Tuesday.

Deputy Minister of Roads and Urban Development Kheirollah Khademi said Armenian 
roads leading to the Iranian border are of strategic importance to his country.

An official Iranian delegation headed by him arrived in Yerevan on Monday amid 
continuing disruptions in cargo traffic between Armenia and Iran resulting from 
an Azerbaijani roadblock set up on September 12 on the main highway connecting 
them.

Khademi said the purpose of the trip is to discuss with Armenian officials the 
transport hurdles and the ongoing reconstruction of an alternative road which 
also passes through Armenia’s Syunik province bordering Iran and Azerbaijan.

“We are negotiating with the Armenian side so that cargo and passenger traffic 
through that road gets on track as soon as possible,” he told the YouTube 
channel Armenia-Iran Friendship.

“We are ready to assist Armenia in the construction of the new road,” he said. 
“Iran is ready to share its technical and engineering capacity with Armenia.”

The Islamic Republic, Khademi went on, can also provide similar support for the 
Armenian government’s plans to build or refurbish other Syunik roads leading to 
the Iranian border.

“Armenia is also building the North-South highway which starts from the Iranian 
borders and stretches to the Georgian border … We are ready to cooperate with 
Armenia on that as well. Iran has extensive experience in road construction, and 
our contractors are ready to share their experience with Armenia,” he said.


Armenia -- A road in the Syunik province, September 3, 2018.

The official Iranian IRNA news agency reported that Khademi’s delegation will 
explore in Armenia Iran’s possible involvement in the bypass road construction. 
It said the Syunik roads also connect the Islamic Republic with Russia and 
Europe.

The delegation flew to Yerevan as the Armenian and Iranian foreign ministers met 
in Tehran for talks that focused on transport issues. Echoing statements by 
other Armenian officials, Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan 
assured his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian that work on the 
alternative Syunik road will be completed before the end of this year.

Azerbaijan gained control over a 21-kilometer section of the existing main 
Armenia-Iran highway last December following an Armenian troop withdrawal from 
border areas along Syunik. Azerbaijani officers deployed there began taxing on 
September 12 Iranian trucks delivering goods to and from Armenia. Many truck 
drivers have refused to pay the “road tax” reportedly worth $130 per trip.

Tensions between Tehran and Baku have risen since then, with the Iranian 
military starting large-scale exercises along the Islamic Republic’s border with 
Azerbaijan last week. Iranian officials have accused Baku of harboring Middle 
Eastern “terrorists” as well as Israeli security personnel in the area. 
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev denied the accusations on Monday.

Earlier on Monday, a senior Iranian parliamentarian reportedly accused Aliyev of 
trying to “cut Iran’s access to Armenia” with the help of Turkey and Israel.

Iran already offered to help Armenia upgrade its strategic highways in Syunik 
months before the latest crisis. The two governments set up this summer a joint 
working group tasked with looking into Iranian companies’ possible participation 
in the multimillion-dollar transport projects planned by Yerevan.



Armenian Opposition Demands Parliament Debate On Azeri Roadblock

        • Anush Mkrtchian

Armenia - Anna Grigorian, a Syunik-based deputy from the opposition Hayastan 
bloc, speaks at a session of the National Assembly, Yerevan, October 5, 2021.


Opposition lawmakers continued to push on Tuesday for an urgent session of the 
Armenian parliament on serious disruptions in Armenia’s trade with neighboring 
Iran resulting from a roadblock set up by Azerbaijan last month.

The opposition Hayastan and Pativ Unem blocs demanded such a discussion 
immediately after Azerbaijani authorities began levying hefty duties from 
Iranian vehicles passing through an Azerbaijani-controlled section of the main 
highway connecting Armenia and Iran.

Parliament speaker Alen Simonian accepted the demand, saying that Armenia’s 
defense minister, National Security Service (NSS) and other officials will soon 
brief the National Assembly on Yerevan’s response to Baku’s actions. The 
discussion has still not taken place, however.

Representatives of the two parliamentary opposition forces reminded the 
pro-government majority of Simonian’s promise as the parliament was about to 
discuss other matters on Tuesday morning. They said transport links with Iran 
are vital for Armenia’s national security.

Deputy speaker Ruben Rubinian, who presided over the session, countered that 
Simonian is currently visiting Russia and urged the opposition to wait until he 
returns to Armenia.

Opposition deputies again condemned Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s government 
for handing over a 21-kilometer section of the highway passing through Armenia’s 
southeastern Syunik province to Azerbaijan shortly after a Russian-brokered 
ceasefire stopped the war in Nagorno-Karabakh last November.

Pashinian said at the time that the road section is located on the Azerbaijani 
side of Armenia’s Soviet-era border with Azerbaijan, a claim disputed by his 
political opponents. He has also claimed that Armenia’s former leaders 
challenging him now themselves recognized that border with a law enacted in 2010.

The Azerbaijani roadblock and its resulting negative impact on cargo traffic 
between Armenia and Iran was high on the agenda of talks held by the foreign 
ministers of the two states in Tehran on Monday.

Armenia’s Ararat Mirzoyan briefed his Iranian counterpart Hossein 
Amir-Abdollahian on the ongoing reconstruction of an alternative road in Syunik 
that will allow Iranian trucks to bypass the Azerbaijani checkpoint. He said it 
will be completed soon.

Amir-Abdollahian seemed satisfied with these assurances when he spoke at a joint 
news briefing held after the talks.


Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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