Author: Greg Madatian

Yerevan ex-mayor Hayk Marutyan loses City Council seat

Greg Madatian

 11:43, 7 February 2024

YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 7, ARMENPRESS. Yerevan City Council on Wednesday voted to oust Councillor Hayk Marutyan for "unexcused absences" from the body’s sessions.

Marutyan denied the motive of the move initiated by the Civil Contract faction as politically motivated. He said that the majority wanted to oust him and several other councillors because they have demanded the resignation of Mayor Tigran Avinyan. Marutyan was ousted with 34 votes.

By law, City Council has the power to oust a councillor for being absent from more than half of sittings or votes. Marutyan has skipped all the 42 votes held during the current sitting. The former Yerevan Mayor says he boycotted the sessions as a sign of protest.

Civil Contract faction leader, Armen Galjyan, said that councillors ought to respect the city council and those displaying disregard should leave.

Marutyan argued that no one has the right to deprive him of his seat, as he’s been elected to office for a 5-year term. He said he’s been performing his duties outside of the sessions.

Councillor Narine Hayrapetyan was also ousted during the session.

A group of Yerevan City councillors representing the ruling Civil Contract faction have introduced a bill seeking to oust several councillors for what they describe as 'unexcused absences' from the body’s sittings.

The bill has been debated at an extraordinary session of City Council on February 5.

Besides Marutyan and Hayrapetyan, the Civil Contract faction seeks the ousting of Mother Armenia faction councillors Sona Aghekyan, Gevorg Stepanyan and Zaruhi Postanjyan.

Opinion: "Armenia can develop relations with NATO without exiting CSTO for now"

Greg Madatian
Feb 1 2024
  • JAMnews
  • Yerevan

Russia believes that the West is encouraging Armenia’s approachment with NATO and warns Armenian authorities to consider “how safe this is and what it will lead to.”

This reaction follows a statement by NATO Secretary General’s Special Representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia, Javier Colomina, regarding Armenia’s approach to the bloc. Specifically, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that approaching the North Atlantic Alliance has already resulted in “many countries losing sovereignty and independence.”

Senior research fellow at APRI Armenia, military expert Leonid Nersisyan views this as a direct threat to Armenia. He suggests that Yerevan should refrain from engaging in discussions on this matter as it may not alter the situation and could potentially exacerbate it. Instead, Nersisyan advocates for diversifying foreign policy and preparing for possible future scenarios.

  • “Baku and Moscow will not change their policy towards Yerevan” – Armenian ambassador to EU
  • “Moscow needs continuation of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict”. Opinion from Yerevan
  • “Armenia is separating from Russia” – opinion on reforms in the National Security Service

Javier Colomina announced a “significant shift” in relations with Armenia during an interview with Armenpress agency. According to him, NATO is prepared to progress at the pace determined by Yerevan in its approach to the bloc:

“We are content with the current bilateral relations with Armenia. We are also highly encouraged by Armenia’s decisions in foreign and defense policy, the transition they have opted for. I understand this is a challenging decision and may require considerable time, but we urge our partners to draw nearer to us, and that is precisely what Armenia is doing.”

Colomina also highlighted NATO’s support for Yerevan’s actions, such as the decision to increase troop numbers in the NATO peacekeeping force (KFOR) in Kosovo, which, in his view, signifies a clear “demonstration of political engagement and dedication.”

The Special Representative of the NATO Secretary General further mentioned that a new Individual Partnership Program (ITPP) “with ambitious objectives” is currently under development for Armenia.

Commenting on Colomina’s statements, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, advised to “open the map and see in which region, between which neighbors” Armenia is located. She declared Armenia’s approach to NATO to be contrary to the country’s national interests:

“We have already witnessed the consequences of proximity to NATO – involvement in conflicts, loss of sovereignty and independence, submission of will to external planning in all aspects, and, most importantly, the inability to pursue one’s own national interests. We must analyze this and understand Armenia’s own national interests, what is beneficial in the short, medium, and long term, and act accordingly, rather than relying on promises.”

She was followed by the special ambassador of the Russian Foreign Ministry for CSTO issues, Viktor Vasilyev, who also argued that Armenia was acting “under pressure from the West.” He stated that “Armenia’s security, including in the military-technical sphere, cannot be ensured without cooperation within the CSTO.”

Vasilyev believes that the crisis in Armenia’s relations with the Russian military bloc CSTO is also the result of “understandable emotions of the leadership and residents of Armenia.” However, he believes that “despite the difficulties, reason must prevail.”

Military expert Leonid Nersisyan also observes a significant substantive shift in NATO-Armenia relations. In this regard, he highlights joint exercises with the US military and visits to Yerevan by high-ranking military personnel.

He believes that Yerevan is genuinely taking steps towards closer ties with NATO. As evidence, he points to the agreement on military-technical cooperation signed with NATO member France:

“In this context, it’s possible to enhance cooperation with NATO to some extent, to progress, without yet making a final decision to leave the CSTO. That moment will come eventually. However, the West now recognizes that Armenia faces challenges related to the CSTO and the severance of ties with Russia.”

According to the expert, it is crucial whether NATO will be prepared to offer Armenia assurances “that mitigate the risks of leaving the CSTO.”

“Such assurances are needed regarding both security and the economy, in relation to both Azerbaijan and Russia. Russia’s response could either be through Azerbaijan, in the form of military escalation, or economic,” he explained.

Regarding the statements from the Russian side, Nersisyan interpreted them as direct threats against Armenia.

He believes the underlying message conveyed is: “If you move towards NATO, Armenia’s existence as a country will be at stake.” Furthermore, as the expert pointed out, Zakharova mentions possible issues but fails to acknowledge potential problems with Russia itself.

“For years, Yerevan solely relied on cooperation with Russia, yet received neither military nor diplomatic support in difficult times. It’s now absurd to suggest that Armenia lacks the right to seek other partners,” he emphasized.


Achkt Louys, Armenian matchmaking for the modern era

Greg Madatian
 Lillian Avedian Local Spotlight, Diaspora 0

Narineh Abrimian is ushering in an era of dating with intention through Achkt Louys, a matchmaking service for Armenian singles in the United States.

“We’ve all been there with the dating apps. We’ve all been there thinking someone Armenian was going to come around, and you’re going to get married. It doesn’t always play out for everybody,” Abrimian said in an interview with the Weekly. 

Abrimian, a 36-year-old middle school English teacher from Waltham, Massachusetts, launched Achkt Louys at the start of 2024 to “help Armenians ages 21-50 find someone with whom they truly feel a connection and can see themselves with in a long, happy and healthy relationship,” as stated on the Achkt Louys website.

While taking certification courses in matchmaking in 2023, Abrimian realized that her communication skills as an educator have prepared her to be a matchmaker. “My friends and family have always shared how I’m a very good listener, and many of my friends call me their life coach. They always come to me for advice. Even my eighth graders come to me, and I’m like, ‘I can’t be talking to you about these things,’” Abrimian shared with a laugh. “Their personal lives, families, boyfriends, girlfriends, friend drama.” 

Abrimian draws on her teaching experience and her years-long interest in psychology and human behavior to determine compatibility, set up matches and guide people through dates. Over Zoom calls, she gets to know her clients intimately, asking them about their professional goals, whether or not they want children and the strengths and weaknesses they bring to a relationship. “I save you the first few dates,” Abrimian summed up. “I’m basically dating the client for them before I introduce them.” After each date, she has a follow-up meeting with each client to debrief and reflect on their experience – yet unlike filling in a friend about a date, Abrimian offers unbiased, professional guidance. 

Like many, Abrimian feels disillusioned with the failed promise of dating apps to deliver romance. In the era of cursory swiping, she believes matchmaking can be a successful alternative for people seeking committed and meaningful relationships. While working with a matchmaker, clients learn about the qualities and goals of their potential dates before seeing photos of them, thereby eliminating snap judgments. “I don’t think people take dating apps very seriously,” Abrimian said. “You don’t know the person’s intention behind the screen, as compared to with a matchmaker. If they come to seek me, I know they’re serious.” 

For Abrimian – an active member of her local Armenian community and the Armenian Relief Society and as an Armenian language teacher at St. Stephen’s Saturday School – dating within the Armenian community can build on the mutual understanding each person brings to the relationship in regards to their culture, traditions and upbringing. “You don’t need to worry about their background or their overprotective parents, because you already know what having an overprotective parent is like. You don’t have to explain yourself. It makes things a bit easier,” she said.

Many Armenians traditionally met their spouse through a matchmaker. Abrimian is reviving this tradition, yet not purely for the purpose of creating Armenian matches, but rather creating Armenian matches that will last, founded on compatibility and equality.

Achkt Louys adapts old Armenian customs to the needs of the contemporary dating pool. Many Armenians traditionally met their spouse through a matchmaker. Abrimian is reviving this tradition, yet not purely for the purpose of creating Armenian matches, but rather creating Armenian matches that will last, founded on compatibility and equality. Abrimian has witnessed how, within the Armenian community, being single and eligible are sometimes treated as sufficient qualities to set two people up on a date. She urges Armenians who want to date within their community to prioritize the fundamental traits and values necessary to build a partnership, alongside identity. 

“Sometimes you let go of things you actually want to make an Armenian union,” Abrimian reflected. “I don’t like the idea of just marrying an Armenian just to be with an Armenian. We live one life, and if that person’s not compatible with you, you’re giving away your whole life for something you probably weren’t looking for and sacrificing, potentially, your happiness.” 

Achkt Louys is also updating Armenian matchmaking for the modern age through its inclusivity. Abrimian extends her matchmaking services to Armenian men, women and members of the LGBTQ community. “Everyone deserves their right to happiness. No one’s more special, as I tell my students, than anybody else,” she said. “If I could have a safe space for people to reach out to look for a same-sex partner, then I want to be that safe space for them.”

For Valentine’s Day, Abrimian is offering gift certificates for a free interview and to be entered into the Achkt Louys singles database. 

“I often have friends say to me, ‘You love seeing others in relationships and being happy.’ It never crossed my mind that that’s how I felt, but once a friend made the comment, I realized how true it was. It fills me with energy, positivity and life to see happy relationships,” Abrimian shared.

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Lillian Avedian is the assistant editor of the Armenian Weekly. She reports on international women's rights, South Caucasus politics, and diasporic identity. Her writing has also been published in the Los Angeles Review of Books, Democracy in Exile, and Girls on Key Press. She holds master's degrees in journalism and Near Eastern studies from New York University.


Armenian Foreign Minister expresses concerns over Azerbaijani reversal in peace talks

Greg Madatian
 Hoory Minoyan News 1

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan (RA Ministry of Foreign Affairs, January 22, 2024)

YEREVAN—Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan voiced concerns during a January 23 news conference regarding Azerbaijan’s unexpected backtrack in the ongoing peace talks with Armenia. 

While the December 8 Armenia-Azerbaijan prisoner exchange suggested a positive development, Mirzoyan highlighted Azerbaijan’s failure to maintain a constructive stance since then. This shift was evident in Azerbaijan’s recent proposals on an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty and President Ilham Aliyev’s latest interview on January 10, marking a significant regression in the peace process on crucial issues.

“Unfortunately, after this positive step of December 8, we saw that Azerbaijan is not continuing with its constructive stance, to say the least,” Mirzoyan said. “That manifested itself through both the seventh Azerbaijani proposals on the treaty and the Azerbaijani president’s latest interview. There was a significant regression and even a blow to the peace process on a number of key issues.”

During a January 19 discussion in Croatia, Mirzoyan emphasized Armenia’s conscientious commitment to fostering lasting peace in the region. While acknowledging challenges arising from Azerbaijan’s lack of reciprocity, Mirzoyan highlighted Armenia’s active participation in negotiations, supported by the European Union and other stakeholders. However, he lamented Azerbaijan’s reluctance to resume talks on existing platforms.

Mirzoyan stressed the foundational principles guiding the negotiations, including territorial integrity, recognition, indivisibility of borders and mutual acknowledgment of sovereignty. He said these principles form the bedrock for a comprehensive peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Armenia remains steadfast in its pursuit of a negotiated settlement that respects these principles.

Mirzoyan previously raised concerns on January 10 regarding the latest Azerbaijani proposals on a peace treaty, which he said show Azerbaijan’s reluctance to explicitly recognize Armenia’s borders. In response, during a January 10 interview, President Aliyev reiterated demands for Armenia to open an extraterritorial corridor to Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave and insisted on Armenian withdrawal from “eight Azerbaijani villages.” Aliyev also dismissed Yerevan’s use of the most recent Soviet maps for border delimitation.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rejected Aliyev’s demands, characterizing them as territorial claims. Mirzoyan reiterated on January 23 that Azerbaijan seeks to redraw its long border with Armenia, emphasizing that no one has the authority to unilaterally establish a new border. He affirmed Armenia’s commitment to reproducing borders drawn on legal grounds before the Soviet Union’s dissolution.

Despite the perceived risk of an Azerbaijani invasion of Armenia, Mirzoyan asserted that Pashinyan’s government remains dedicated to its “peace agenda.” On January 22, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, expressed serious concern about Azerbaijan’s latest territorial claims against Armenia. 

“The latest territorial claims by President Aliyev are very concerning. And any violation of Armenia’s territorial integrity will be unacceptable and will have severe consequences for our relations with Azerbaijan,” Borrell said during a news conference.

In response, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry swiftly rejected Borrell’s criticism, accusing him of distorting Aliyev’s statements and inciting an aggressive policy against Azerbaijan. 

Azerbaijani relations with the West have recently deteriorated, as Azerbaijan has accused the West of bias in favor of Armenia. Azerbaijan has proposed bilateral negotiations without mediators, a proposition that Armenia rejects. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that while Azerbaijan is willing to sign a peace agreement on Russian territory, Armenia’s readiness remains uncertain.

The situation suggests a potential failure in the preparation of a peace agreement, with leaders of both countries evaluating the peace prospects differently. Russian expert Sergey Markedonov argued that while Baku leans towards a contained agreement without international guarantors, Yerevan insists on active external involvement in the peace project. With Brussels, Washington and Moscow distracted with other regions, a deadlock has emerged, hindering progress in various directions, including the formulation of the peace treaty’s text.

Amid the potential deterioration of the ongoing peace negotiations, PM Pashinyan has introduced a new perspective on a potential treaty with Azerbaijan. Speaking before members of his ruling Civil Contract party on January 19, Pashinyan said that Armenia needs a new constitution to reflect the “new geopolitical environment” in the region. “We must have a constitution that will make Armenia more competitive and viable in the new geopolitical and regional environment,” Pashinyan said.

Central to this discussion is the argument made by Pashinyan that constitutional reforms are imperative for any meaningful peace treaty with Azerbaijan. This perspective was articulated back in September 2022, when Pashinyan emphasized the need to revisit the declaration of independence. Pashinyan argued that changes to the constitution, including the annulment of the declaration of independence and a joint decision dating back to December 1, 1989, are essential. 

Pashinyan’s call for a new constitution has come under criticism from the opposition, which says that Pashinyan is submitting to a demand from Azerbaijan. On January 19, five members of the opposition Armenia Alliance released a joint statement accusing Pashinyan of “preparing the ground for meeting another of the nonstop Turkish-Azerbaijani demands.” They said that Pashinyan aims to remove the preamble of the constitution, which refers to the 1989 unification act adopted by Armenia and Artsakh and calls for recognition of the Armenian Genocide. 

During his January 23 news conference, Foreign Minister Mirzoyan admitted that while Azerbaijan takes issue with Armenia’s constitution, Armenia also has objections to parts of Azerbaijan’s constitution. “To say that the Armenia-Azerbaijan settlement process is the reason for the change of the constitution would be a gross exaggeration,” Mirzoyan said.

Armenian journalist Nairi Hokhikyan argued that manipulating the upcoming referendum in favor of constitutional changes is a pivotal move for Pashinyan’s political agenda. Hokhikyan said that Pashinyan faces a significant challenge in the upcoming elections. The ruling party has allegedly used strategies including changing governors and orchestrating local revolutions in communities to secure influence. 

However, concerns persist about the risks associated with combining the referendum with parliamentary elections. Hokhikyan argued that the key to victory for the ruling party lies in a low turnout, which may be compromised by the simultaneous occurrence of a referendum. He added that organizing elections shortly after the referendum, when the electorate may be fatigued, could serve Pashinyan’s interests more reliably.

In the event that the opposition manages to sway public sentiment against Pashinyan’s proposed constitutional changes, the Prime Minister’s political standing could face significant challenges, Hokhikyan continued. The geopolitical dimension is also brought into focus, with contrasting expectations from Western nations and the Russian Federation regarding Pashinyan’s leadership and his alignment with regional partners. 

The unfolding political landscape in Armenia remains under scrutiny as these strategic maneuvers continue to shape the country’s future.

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Hoory Minoyan was an active member of the Armenian community in Los Angeles until she moved to Armenia prior to the 44-day war. She graduated with a master's in International Affairs from Boston University, where she was also the recipient of the William R. Keylor Travel Grant. The research and interviews she conducted while in Armenia later became the foundation of her Master’s thesis, “Shaping Identity Through Conflict: The Armenian Experience.” Hoory continues to follow her passion for research and writing by contributing to the Armenian Weekly.


OUTLOOK 2024 Caucasus

Greg Madatian
Jan 24 2024
By bne IntelliNews 

2023 was the year that Azerbaijan finally took over Nagorno-Karabakh, its dream since the collapse of the Soviet Union three decades ago.
 
In a surprise offensive in September, Baku’s forces attacked the ethnic Armenian enclave, forcing its de facto government to surrender after a day’s fighting. Subsequently, virtually the entire population of the disputed territory, more than 100,000 people, fled to Armenia.
 
To some extent the collapse of the statelet and the humanitarian tragedy of the refugee exodus should have been predictable after the rout of Armenian forces in the Second Karabakh war of 2020, which ended in an unstable Russian-mediated peace.
 
Since then Azerbaijan’s position has strengthened even further. Russia, the guarantor of the peace, has – on the most charitable view – been diverted by its failed invasion of Ukraine.  More cynically, many observers argue it has in fact changed sides and has chosen to back the rising Azerbaijan, which is now much more important for its trade connections, given its routes westwards through Ukraine are now blocked. This has all given President Ilham Aliyev the freedom to flex his new economic and military muscles, and his alliance with a more and more assertive Turkey.
 
What was perhaps not so predictable was the way the international community sat on its hands. Azerbaijan’s growing importance as an energy producer has made Europe turn a blind eye to both Aliyev’s human rights abuses and his aggressive posturing. Despite some wringing of hands, Europe and the US did nothing significant to either restrain the Azerbaijani dictator from invading or protect the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh afterwards from being in effect ethnically cleansed.
 
Iran, which has tense relations with Baku, was also strangely quiet and quickly adapted to the new regional balance of power, which could also offer it some trade benefits if a corridor is built through its territory to connect Turkey and Azerbaijan.
 
The big question for 2024 is whether Aliyev will be content with his territorial gains. Baku continues to put pressure on Armenia for some kind of extra-territorial route to connect to its exclave of Nakhchivan and beyond to Turkey. It has also begun to repeat old claims to some villages inside Armenia proper, warning that until it is satisfied it will maintain some mountain positions on the disputed border that it has seized. Armenia fears this could all presage another attack. A full-scale invasion, however, looks unlikely, particularly in a year when Baku is hosting the COP29 environmental conference in November. Aliyev appears to want to achieve his objectives by threats.
 
As for Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is determined to achieve peace, even at the cost of cutting Nagorno-Karabakh adrift. The real question this year is to what extent he is prepared to make significant concessions to reach a deal, notably on the issues of the return of refugees, the redrawing of borders, and a “Zangeur Corridor” connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan.
 
So far the weakness of the political opposition has enabled Pashinyan to ride out the storm of the collapse of Nagorno-Karabakh, as he did in 2020 when Azerbaijan routed Karabkh and Armenian forces. Armenia also seems to be coping well with integrating the Karabakh refugee wave.
 
A peace deal would offer Yerevan the chance to open up transport connections with both Azerbaijan and Turkey that could transform its economy and that of the region. It would also provide an opportunity to push Russia out of the southern Caucasus, as it would no longer be needed as a guarantor of the peace – a role it has anyway flunked. Armenia has already begun to strengthen its links with the West, notably France. Yet Russia still has many levers it can pull inside Armenia. Pashinyan’s challenge in the coming year is going to be manoeuvring between Russia and the West, without provoking Moscow into even more overt attempts to bring him down.
 
In Azerbaijan, Aliyev looks increasingly impregnable following Baku’s victory over the tiny Nagorno-Karabakh army. Taking advantage of this, he has called early presidential elections to be held in February, a year earlier than originally planned. But the Aliyev family, which has ruled the country for 30 years, is taking no chances in the façade elections. It has launched a wave of arrests and currently more than 200 people are held as political prisoners.
Georgian dreams
The other big event of the year was the European Commission’s decision on  December 14 to finally grant candidate status for EU membership to Georgia, after turning it down in 2022. The green light was more a reflection of the geopolitical environment than any progress Tbilisi has made to fulfil the conditions the EU had set. Failing Georgia again could have pushed the Georgian Dream government to accelerate its already worrying drift towards Moscow.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Georgia steered a middle course, refusing to join sanctions on Moscow but also not obviously acting as a backdoor to help the Kremlin evade them. But last year Georgia appeared to be moving closer to Moscow, with deepening economic ties and a resumption of direct flights.
 
The increasingly authoritarian government even proposed a Russian-style foreign agent law, though it eventually backtracked after a domestic outcry and Western pressure. It also unfroze the bank assets of sanctioned former Prosecutor General Otar Partskhaladze ­–­ who is closely linked to the billionaire founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia ­­– causing the International Monetary Fund to suspend its programme in the country.
 
The big question on Georgia this year is whether the government will finally get serious about qualifying for EU membership. Several conditions remained unfulfilled and the EU added three more.
 
The list now includes: deoligarchisation; depolarisation of politics; fighting disinformation and foreign (Russian) interference; improving the independence of the electoral system; removing state control from the judicial system; strengthening the independence of other government institutions, such as the police and the national bank, greater parliamentary and public oversight of the security services' work;
harmonising foreign affairs with the EU; empowering anti-corruption agencies; and strengthening human rights protections.
 
Many of these look extremely challenging – especially with elections scheduled for October. It would be optimistic to expect the EU to decide to open negotiations at the end of the year.
 
In those elections Georgian Dream looks well placed, given that the United National Movement, the largest opposition party, has experienced a split, raising questions about its future. Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream’s founder, last month announced his return to frontline politics to assure his party’s victory – and also defuse EU criticism that he was pulling the strings from behind the scenes.
 
Sanctions rebound
 
For the economies of the three South Caucasus countries, 2023 was a surprisingly good year. All three countries are closely connected with Russia’s struggling economy but given that country’s resilience to sanctions, the impact of the Ukraine war and sanctions has not been as bad as expected. Moreover, the region has also benefited from the redirection of trade, as well as the influx of Russian migrants and capital flows. In the first 10 months, Armenian exports to Russia increased by 63% to approximately $2.9 billion. This has all boosted demand, labour supply, GDP growth and current accounts.
 
For Georgia, two thirds of whose exports go to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), GDP growth in 2023 is forecast at close to 7%, though this will ease to 4.8% this year, according to the IMF. Inflation dropped to 0.4% at the end of the year, allowing rate cuts and boosting consumption, helped by wage growth of 17%.
 
In terms of vulnerabilities, the current account deficit widened to an estimated 5.9% of GDP in 2023 and is expected to increase to 6.4% in 2024. By contrast, gross external debt has fallen to around 79% of GDP as of the third quarter of 2023, the lowest level since 2014, and by November 2023, the National Bank of Georgia's international reserves hit a record high of $5.1 billion.
 
The Armenian economy was projected to grow by 7% in 2023, followed by 5% in 2024, with private consumption and investment as the main drivers of this growth. Inflation is expected to average 3.5% in 2023 and accelerate to 4% in 2024.
 
In terms of vulnerabilities, the main worry for Armenia is the budget, given the cost of integrating the Karabakh refugees and building up the country’s defence capacity. The government expects the state budget deficit to increase to 4.6% of GDP in 2024, compared to the planned 3.1% for 2023.
 
Petrostate Azerbaijan’s economy has been the poorest performer of the three because of falling oil prices and its declining oil production. In 2023 Azerbaijan's oil production with condensate decreased by 7.4% to 30.2mn tonnes. In 2024 oil production is forecast to fall a further 3% to 29.49mn tonnes. In terms of gas production, there was a 3.2% increase to 48.3bn cubic metres in 2023, with 2024 output expected to rise by 0.7% to 49.06 bcm.
 
This translated into a decline in the oil and gas sector of 1.7%, while the non-oil and gas sector grew by 3.7%, resulting in an estimated increase of just 1.1% in real GDP.
 
ING predicts 2.5% growth this year, while inflation is forecast to fall to 5% from an estimated 9.1% in 2023, which may help consumption revive. Future growth should also be boosted by reconstruction of the reconquered Nagorno-Karabakh territory.
 
The foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan at the end of the year were a massive $11.613bn, up by 29.1%.

 

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Sparkling Wine of Armenia: From Classics to PetNat

Greg Madatian
Glass of Bubbly
Jan 24 2024

24th January 2024

Sparkling wine in today’s Armenia undoubtedly started to be produced as part of a trend that used to be called the ‘Armenian wine boom’ and was launched around the year 2005. Its essence lies in the sharp development of the industry: earlier, during the Soviet period, Armenia was defined as a republic producing brandy of varied qualities, as well as a small amount of mediocre dry wine, partly, to satisfy its own needs. However, at the beginning of the century the situation had changed: what could be called a wine boom, a local fashion for wine, arose. It affected both production – i.e. vineyards and wineries – and the spheres of consumption: wine bars started to appear like mushrooms after a rain, whilst wine lists of HoReCa establishments expanded.

It was due to several coincidence factors. Firstly, economical: wine (of high quality) is a successful export product for a country that lacked a low-cost logistic connection with the outside world. In addition, it was part of another high-margin export product – tourism. Secondly, it was patriotic: Armenian winemaking was based on autochthonous varieties, some of which were barely saved from extinction. The search, preservation, and development of autochthons become part of a modern Armenian identity. Thirdly, the repatriation factor also played a role: Armenian entrepreneurs who were already in the grape and wine business in countries like California, France, Italy, and the Middle East had returned to their own country. Those people founded the brightest wine projects in the country – the most successful and most original. It seems that working in their historical homeland, they felt a little ‘on stage’ and therefore striven not only to do well, but also to surprise those around them. And finally, last but not least: Armenia, which disputes the title of the ancestral home of winemaking, is truly an excellent place for this activity.

As for sparkling wine and winemaking genres (PetNats, etc.) that started to be produced in Armenia simply due to the logic of winemaking and the wine market. They had a demand, they had grapes, and they had people who were inclined to experiment. For instance, this is how one of the Armenian winemakers (Gevorkian Winery) talks about how he made his first PetNats: “In 2020, I made rosé from the flagship autochthonous variety Areni. I wanted to preserve the very elegant, subtle aromatics that emerged during the fermentation process which would then fill the entire winery. Then the idea came to bottle the wine during the fermentation process – when 2/3 of the sugar had fermented. It turned out very well and the following year I made white PetNats from Muscat grapes – that was an Armenian cross of Italian muscat and Hamburg muscat, created in 1982. A year later, I decided to make red PetNat from the same Areni. Here, I used carbonic maceration. The grapes fermented for ten days in a vat without access to oxygen, gained approximately 3% alcohol, then, after pressing, another 5-7 days in the vat followed by 10 days in the bottle. PetNat went on sale on the 45th day.” The answer to the question of how he acquired knowledge about PetNats, the winemaker referred to an article he had once read in a publication run by the Simple company, which led him eagerly to learn more about it. Perhaps those were the first PetNats in Armenia – in any case, the public had to be explained what it was and how it was consumed. But in general, the young audience (and in Armenia, wine is attracted to young audiences) perceived the new product very positively. PetNats were produced in small batches (the sugar content may change during the bottling process, and therefore must be bottled quickly) and supplied almost entirely to the HoReCa segment. First of all, to supply youth wine bars. They were consumed as an aperitif and generally as a light, summer refreshing drink, and that also applied to red PetNat – the tannins in them were barely noticeable.

As for classic sparkling wine, here also Armenian winemakers produce mainly original products. For example, sparkling based on the so-called orange wine (white autochthonous voskehat, natural, without sulfites), in which the dosage is not made with mass-produced liqueur, but with the pulp of fresh grapes (also an indigenous variety of Chilar)! With aging on the lees for about three years, disgorgement – everything as it should be.

However, one should not think that Armenian winemakers live in some kind of isolated world. Thus, the invited French Champagne winemaker Jerome Baret played a significant role in the development of sparkling wine production in the country. By inviting him, Armenian entrepreneurs (Keush Winery) believed that he would produce wine from his usual varieties: Chardonnay, Pinot Noir, Viognier, and so on. However, Baret, having become acquainted with the terroir near the village of Khachik in the Vayots Dzor region, located at an altitude of 1800m above sea level (perhaps the highest terroir in Europe), stated that it was optimal here to produce sparkling wine from indigenous varieties: white voskehat and khatuna and red arena. By utilising those, fairly high-quality vintage sparkling wines of the classic type were obtained with three years of aging on lees of various categories: Blanc de Blanc, Blanc de Noir, Rosé, etc. The wines were exported to various countries, including the USA, and attained top marks from the specialized press. Acratophoric sparkling wine with European varieties was also produced in Armenia – particularly by the Terras de Armenia company (KARAS brand). Whilst Armenia Wine, with the help of French specialists, produced acratophoric sparkling wine from the indigenous Kangun grapes.

Illustration credit – Lisa Burlutskaya

Kirill Burlutskiy

Author, Judge and Sommelier. Writer of the book named 'Wine Non-fiction Sommelier's Book'. Owner International Sommelier School WineJet.

Simon Maghakyan to give virtual presentation on fate of Artsakh’s monuments

Greg Madatian
 Guest Contributor Diaspora, Announcements 0

Simon Maghakyan

Investigative researcher Simon Maghakyan will speak in a virtual presentation on “Heritage in Peril: Artsakh’s Cultural Monuments in the Aftermath of Invasion” at 7 p.m. on Monday, January 29, 2024. The Zoom registration link is: https://bit.ly/armenianstudiessimonmaghakyan. The event is the first in the Armenian Studies Program Spring 2024 Lecture Series and is supported by the Leon S. Peters Foundation Fund.

The last Armenian prayer in Artsakh was held at Dadivank on October 1, 2023, following Azerbaijan’s invasion and ethnic cleansing of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh. What happens to the monuments that Armenians had to leave behind? What can stakeholders do to prevent the scenario of Nakhichevan, where from 1997-2006 Azerbaijan eradicated the entire known inventory of Armenian Christian heritage? The talk will discuss current monitoring efforts and explore pathways for raising the cost of destruction to Azerbaijan and creating sustainable incentives for preserving Artsakh’s cultural monuments.

Maghakyan is an investigative researcher and cultural heritage defender. He is a doctoral candidate in heritage crime at Great Britain’s Defense Academy (Cranfield University), a community scholar at the University of Denver, a visiting scholar at Tufts University, and an incoming postdoctoral fellow at Oxford University’s Faculty of Asian and Middle Eastern Studies. Maghakyan’s investigative exposés on Azerbaijan’s state-sponsored erasure of Armenian cultural heritage have been cited at the International Court of Justice and praised as “rock solid” by The Guardian. His writing has been featured in numerous news outlets, including Time, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, and he has appeared on Democracy Now! and the BBC, among other outlets. Maghakyan’s recent collaborative investigation in New Lines Magazine exposed the secret Azerbaijani facility that served as a basis for “concentration camp” fears in Artsakh in 2023.

For information about upcoming Armenian Studies Program presentations, please follow us on Facebook or the program website.

Refugee Influx Challenges Armenia

Greg Madatian
Jan 12 2024
By Mark Temnycky
The fallout from Azerbaijan’s lightning seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh still reverberates across the South Caucasus.

After several decades of conflict and thousands of dead, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic of ethnic Armenians has ceased to exist. Last year, Azerbaijan successfully launched a surprise attack to take it by force. Hundreds of residents were killed, and many more were injured.

The Azerbaijanis declared victory and forced more than 100,000 Armenians to leave the area. (Azerbaijan denies this but the allegation has support from the European Parliament.)

These refugees now reside in the Armenian mainland. While the government is doing what it can to assist them, it is struggling with an expensive new problem at a time of limited budgets.

Even before the events of September 2023, the government was facing issues with unemployment and poverty. These problems will become even more challenging given this new influx to the country of 2.8 million people.

And their presence adds to the challenges for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan following a major strategic defeat. While Armenia did not enter the conflict (because it would have lost) the erasure of Nagorno-Karabakh has angered nationalists.

Other problems abound. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), 23% of households face food insecurity, and 54% are “at risk of falling into food insecurity . . . in case of shocks.” Meanwhile, the World Bank reports that unemployment stands at 12.6%. The poverty rate is meanwhile 27%. In other words, the refugees may be welcome but their presence presents a problem.

The WFP has attempted to combat these issues by increasing food availability. The organization is also working with the Geneva International Centre of Humanitarian Demining so that areas within Armenia can be cleared and returned to agricultural production.

The government has offered to assist some refugees, but it is determining how to help them assimilate while juggling with financial constraints.

Recently, the government stated that it would issue pensions to residents from Nagorno-Karabakh. The program, while welcoming to older people, underlines that the state can only assist the most vulnerable. The exact amount is yet to be determined. To add to these complications, the pension will only be provided until June.

Meanwhile, many refugees are largely accommodated in communal facilities that were not designed for habitation. Often lacking heating and the creature comforts they were forced to leave behind, many are struggling to make ends meet.

They have had assistance of $250 each and another $125 for rent, where needed. But these are hardly sufficient, especially in the capital Yerevan, which also accommodates Russian exiles. The refugees nonetheless say they have been moved by the warmth of their reception from fellow Armenians.

Grim as the situation may be, there is more positive economic news which bodes well for the medium term. In December, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Armenian real GDP growth of 7% in 2023 and 5% this year, even as inflation falls.

The effective cleansing of Armenians is part of a long series of forced population movements between the two former Soviet republics. When the first Nagorno-Karabakh conflict broke out during the Soviet Union’s collapse, some 700,000 Azerbaijanis were expelled from Armenia and as many as 500,000 Armenians left Azerbaijan.

Human Rights Watch says that the small numbers of Armenians now remaining should receive protection from Azerbaijan, but added that assurances from its officials were, “difficult to accept at face value after the months of severe hardships, decades of conflict, impunity for alleged crimes, in particular during hostilities, and the Azerbaijani government’s overall deteriorating human rights record.”

President Ilham Aliyev’s government seems far more concerned with the significant challenges of reintegrating the captured lands of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Some Azerbaijanis have already started to move into the area. But the integration program is far from clear.

There are numerous complications. For example, if Nagorno-Karabakh is to be integrated with the rest of Azerbaijan, then identification forms and other documents will need to be provided. How might residents obtain Azerbaijani citizenship, and what will the process entail? In addition, there are various societal matters that need to be addressed. For example, how to reopen schools and impose curriculums.

Azerbaijan may regard these as the problems of success, while Armenia deals with much tougher issues on the other side of the equation. Much needs to be done to address the numerous outstanding issues, not least the possibility of a future peace settlement to ensure the countries end the cycle of war.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on X @MTemnycky

Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.

 

Armenia’s Gleb Mosesov wins bronze in Val Palot slalom

Greg Madatian

 10:58,

YEREVAN, JANUARY 11, ARMENPRESS. Armenian skier Gleb Mosesov has won bronze at the men’s slalom event at FIS Val Palot alpine skiing tournament in Italy.

Mosesov finished his first run in 40,63, and second run in 40,47 and took the third place with a total time of 1:21.10. (FIS points 28,49). 

Andorra’s Alex Rius Gimenez won the first place, and Italy’s Diego Bucciardini finished second.

Mosesov will now compete at the Alpine Skiing FIS Europa Cup event in Berchtesgaden, Germany, on January 13-14, marking the first ever Armenian participation in the tournament.

Mosesov, 25, was part of the Armenian State University of Economics Team that won bronze in the first European Universities Winter Championships skiing tournament in Val Di Zoldo, Italy earlier in 2023. He also recently won silver at an international tournament in Switzerland.