Author: Hambik Zargarian

Begin-Sadat Center
for Strategic Studies
BESA
by Emil Avdaliani



BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,723, 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Recent fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan
exposed Israel as a significant player in the region. Though far apart
geographically, Baku and Jerusalem pursue strategic relations. The
dilemma is how this should be done in a region where Russian, Iranian,
and Turkish interests predominate, as none of those countries desires
another competitor.

Fighting in July between Armenia and Azerbaijan caused many casualties
along the border, and the governments of the region fear an escalation
to the scale of the four-day war between the two states in 2016. I
will not delve into the details of the recent flare-up as that has
been done elsewhere (and much remains in dispute in any case), but
will focus instead on one interesting aspect of the tension in the
South Caucasus: the role of Israel.

Jerusalem is confronted with a dilemma in the Armenia-Azerbaijan
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (which is officially within
Azerbaijan’s borders). Israel is not a direct participant, but it
enjoys close relations with both combatants (for instance, Armenia
recently sent its first ambassador to Israel). Jerusalem has stayed
completely out of the evolving conflict so far, which is the logical
approach. One of the latest statements from Israel’s foreign ministry
about the recent violence is an anodyne expression of concern and a
hope for a swift ceasefire.

Though small and far from the conflict area, Israel nevertheless has
vital strategic interests in the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan stands
out, as its relations with Israel dwarf the latter’s relations with
Armenia.

Israel and Azerbaijan established diplomatic relations in April 1992,
and in 1993, Israel opened an embassy in Baku. Ever since then,
relations have broadened and deepened. The relationship is predicated
on a number of geo-strategic factors. The first is Azerbaijan’s loss
of political control over Nagorno-Karabakh and growing need to correct
that situation via an expansive military program, which has caused it
to become a major importer of Israeli defense technologies. Israeli
defense companies have trained Azerbaijani special forces and
bodyguards, built security systems for the Baku airport, and upgraded
Soviet-era military equipment (tanks).

The scale of the transactions between the two is immense. In 2012,
reports emerged about a $1.6 billion purchase by Azerbaijan of weapons
manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries. In 2016, Israeli PM
Benjamin Netanyahu said Azerbaijan had bought $5 billion worth of
weapons from Israel (unmanned aerial vehicles and satellite systems).
In 2017, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported
that Baku had purchased $127 million worth of military technology from
Jerusalem.

This does not mean that all has gone smoothly so far. Halts in
cooperation between the two have occurred. In 2017, claims emerged
that an Israeli drone manufacturer had attempted to bomb the Armenian
military on the Azeris’ behalf during a demonstration of one of its
“suicide” unmanned aerial vehicles. In a rare move, the Israeli
Defense Ministry suspended the export license.

Thus it comes as no surprise that on July 21, after the recent border
flare-up with Azerbaijan, Armenia showcased alleged Israeli-made
drones that it presumably shot down during the fighting. No specifics
were given, but the Israeli firm Aeronautics Defense Systems does
indeed manufacture several types of Orbiter UAVs, including
lightweight systems for reconnaissance and others for aerial attack.

Overall, however, the bilateral military cooperation has been
burgeoning ever since Azerbaijan’s independence in 1991. Israel has
been willing to provide Baku with high tech at a level that Yerevan
and even Moscow do not possess.

But business alone is insufficient grounds for a long-term
geopolitical relationship. Azerbaijan and Israel share other
fundamental interests, of which the Iran issue is arguably the most
crucial.

Iran, located to Azerbaijan’s south, is Israel’s arch nemesis, while
Baku and Tehran have mixed relations. Diplomatic relations exist and
bilateral economic contacts are extensive (primarily via the newly
introduced North-South economic corridor through Azerbaijan, though
much more can yet be achieved there). Baku is nevertheless
apprehensive about Iranian moves that could complicate its position in
the South Caucasus and Caspian Sea.

All of this is heightened by Tehran’s concerns about the allegedly
political aspirations of the Azeris in Iran. Tehran thinks that at an
opportune moment, secession talks could occur, at which a “Greater
Azerbaijan” idea might emerge. This is all hypothetical, but there is
a high level of distrust between the two states. Consider, for
example, Azerbaijan’s recent claim that Iran was sending trucks to
Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku summoned Iranian diplomats and accused Tehran
of stoking the conflict over the land.

This state of affairs naturally makes Israel a comfortable partner for
Azerbaijan. Moreover, from Jerusalem’s perspective, Azerbaijan’s
geographic position on Iran’s border makes it an ideal site for the
gathering of strategic intelligence. Media sources claim that Israel
helped Baku build electronic intelligence-gathering stations along the
Azerbaijani border with Iran in the 1990s.

Claims are occasionally made that the two countries are engaged in
tactical cooperation against Iran. For instance, in 2012, Foreign
Policy reported that Israel had an arrangement with Azerbaijan
allowing it to potentially fly sorties out of the country. Cooperation
regarding the war on terror also exists.

The close relations between Israel and Azerbaijan also fit into the
larger perspective the US has for the region. In the early 1990s,
Washington encouraged a triangular relationship between Turkey,
Azerbaijan, and Israel. Georgia was added later, though the Russian
invasion of Georgia in 2008 shattered Tbilisi’s prospects as did the
crisis in Israeli-Turkish relations.

Despite that setback, the geopolitical model has worked. Azerbaijan
and Israel continue to regard their geopolitical interests as vital
for regional security, and Georgia plays a transit role. Baku supplies
up to 40% of Israel’s oil needs, which is imported through the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

There are also weaknesses to their bilateral relations. Azerbaijan
experiences geopolitical pressure from Russia and Iran, and the
cold-to-hot war with Armenia is a persistent problem. In these
difficult geopolitical circumstances, Baku has to balance its
relations with Israel carefully to avoid drawing heavy pressure from
Tehran, Moscow, and even Ankara.


Emil Avdaliani teaches history and international relations at Tbilisi
State University and Ilia State University. He has worked for various
international consulting companies and currently publishes articles on
military and political developments across the former Soviet space.


 

                                        Monday, August 10, 2020

Armenian PM Congratulates Belarus’s Lukashenka On Reelection
August 10, 2020

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian (R) meeting with Belarus President 
Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Yerevan, September 30, 2019

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian sent a congratulatory message to Belarus 
President Alyaksandr Lukashenka on his re-election in a ballot the results of 
which are disputed by his opposition challenger.

“I am confident that through joint efforts we will continue to strengthen the 
friendship between our peoples, to expand mutually beneficial cooperation 
between our countries both bilaterally and within the framework of international 
organizations and integration associations. On my part I am ready to make every 
effort to fully realize the potential of relations between our peoples and 
countries,” Pashinian said in his message as quoted by his press office.

Armenian President Armen Sarkissian also congratulated Lukashenka, wishing him 
“good health, success and all the best” and “the friendly people of Belarus – 
peace, stability and prosperity.”

Belarus’s Central Election Commission said preliminary official results from the 
August 9 presidential election show incumbent President Lukashenka winning a 
landslide victory with more than 80 percent of the vote, compared to less than 
10 percent for his main rival, Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

Tsikhanouskaya, who drew tens of thousands of people to her campaign rallies, 
refused to recognize the preliminary official results announced on Monday.


Protesters poured into the streets of Belarus's capital, Minsk, after the 
balloting ended, many of them facing off against riot police.

The ballot in Belarus was followed by a night of violent clashes between police 
and thousands of protesters who say exit polls and official results from the 
election commission were rigged.

A human rights group in Minsk said that one protester was killed in the clashes, 
but Belarus’s Interior Ministry denied that.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on August 10 condemned the 
violence in Belarus, calling on the Belarusian government to “accurately” count 
and publish the poll’s results.

Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union and Collective 
Security Treaty Organization both of which also include Belarus.

Other leaders of the alliances, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and 
Kazakhstan’s President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev, have also sent congratulatory 
telegrams to Lukashenka on his re-election.

Belarus’s autocratic leader who turns 66 later this month has occupied the 
presidential post since 1994.




Authorities See Continuing ‘Positive Trend’ In Coronavirus Situation In Armenia
August 10, 2020
        • Robert Zargarian

A medical worker takes notes at the Surb Grigor Lusarovich Medical Center in 
Yerevan, Armenia's largest hospital treating coronavirus patients, June 5, 2020.

The number of active coronavirus cases in Armenia continued to decrease over the 
weekend as the fatality rate remained relatively high, according to official 
statistics.

The figures reported by the Ministry of Health show that for the first time 
since early June the number of active coronavirus cases in Armenia has dropped 
below 7,000. Eleven more patients died from COVID-19 over the weekend, bringing 
the total number of deaths to 796.

According to the ministry, since the start of the epidemic in March 228 other 
patients infected with the virus died from other pre-existing diseases.

The daily number of officially registered fatalities averaged approximately 15 
from July 6 through July 24 after which a downward trend began.

As of August 10, the total number of coronavirus cases identified in Armenia has 
reached 40,433. In the past weeks and days the number of daily reported cases 
decreased more than twice as compared to what appears to be the peak of the 
epidemic in early July when over 700 cases were identified on a daily basis.

Ministry spokesperson Alina Nikoghosian sees a continuing positive trend in the 
rate of infections. “The numbers themselves show a significant decrease. But, 
like we did it before, we keep repeating that vigilance must not be weakened, 
because if we relax, the numbers will start growing again,” she said.

The Armenian government ascribes the recent improvement in the coronavirus 
situation to the wearing of face masks in all public places that was made 
mandatory in Armenia in early June and other enforced and popularized measures 
like social distancing and regular washing of hands.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and other officials have urged Armenians to 
continue to follow the basic anti-epidemic rules, insisting that they can help 
cope with the epidemic.

Despite the improving trend the Pashinian government intends to extend the 
coronavirus-related state of emergency that ends on August 12 for another month.

Deputy Prime Minister Tigran Avinian said last week that the government will at 
the same time fully or partly lift its ban on public gatherings and make it 
easier for foreign nationals to enter the country. He also reaffirmed plans to 
reopen all schools and universities in time for the start of the new academic 
year in September.

Health Minister Arsen Torosian, meanwhile, said at a government session on 
August 6 that his ministry planned more targeted and “pro-active” testing among 
people working in government agencies, supermarkets, factories, banks or other 
businesses as well as patients of various medical and elderly care institutions.

Critics have for months urged authorities to significantly expand COVID-19 
testing, saying that it is vital for tackling the epidemic.




‘Serious Probe’ Demanded After Ex-Police Chief Obstructs Work Of RFE/RL Reporters
August 10, 2020

Former Chief of Police Vladimir Gasparian (file photo)

Several leading media organizations in Armenia have demanded that the country’s 
law-enforcement agencies conduct a “serious probe” into an incident in which 
former Chief of Police Vladimir Gasparian obstructed the professional activities 
of an RFE/RL Armenian Service (Azatutyun) crew working on an environmental story 
near Lake Sevan over the weekend.

In a joint statement disseminated on Monday the Committee To Protect Freedom of 
Expression, the Yerevan Press Club, the Asparez journalists’ club and seven 
other organizations stressed that the former senior official, who is notorious 
for his violent conduct, “must be held accountable in accordance with the law.”

“During his time in office as chief of police Vladimir Gasparian stood out 
through his arrogant attitude towards media representatives and in some cases 
through his cruelty,” the statement said, referring to several such incidents in 
the past, notably the 2015 and 2016 protests in Yerevan, “when more than 40 
journalists and cameramen were targeted by police and were subjected to physical 
violence and illegal persecution.”

The statement also made a mention of another incident in which the then chief of 
police grossly insulted a local website’s reporter which then drew anger from 
the journalistic community.

“All this went unpunished, and, apparently, that is the reason why today the 
former chief of police continues to show indecent behavior towards journalists,” 
the organizations stressed.

Gasparian, who served as chief of Armenia’s police for seven years before being 
dismissed after the regime change in May 2018, drove his vehicle in the 
direction of RFE/RL reporters, almost running over them, after seeing that they 
were filming in the lakeside area where his house is presumably located.

Gasparian threatened the reporters, using phrases like “I’ll shoot you” and 
“I’ll kill you,” and, using offensive language, he also demanded that the 
reporters not show his house in their report.

RFE/RL’s Armenian Service reported the incident to police.

“We are horrified at this attack on our Armenian Service reporters, by no less 
than a former chief of police,” RFE/RL’s acting President Daisy Sindelar said on 
August 9.

“The reporters were covering a story of significant public interest when Mr. 
Gasparian nearly struck them with his vehicle, threatened to kill them, and 
forced them to erase their footage,” Sindelar said.

“We demand that police investigate the incident, and that Mr. Gasparian be held 
accountable for endangering journalists who were simply doing their jobs.”

The RFE/RL reporters were working on a follow-up story after Armenia’s newly 
appointed environment minister said last week that authorities planned 
dismantling illegally constructed facilities and houses located near Lake Sevan.

According to media reports, a number of houses belonging to several former 
high-ranking officials, including Gasparian, are affected by the decision.

On Sunday, in connection with the incident, the Armenian police formally opened 
a criminal case under Article 164.3 of Armenia’s Criminal Code (“Obstruction to 
the legal professional activities of a journalist accompanied with threats to 
the life or health of a journalist or his/her relative”), which is punishable by 
between 3 and 7 years in prison. Investigation is currently underway.


Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2020 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.
1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.