Author: Hambik Zargarian

Speaking before the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva this week, Armenia's ambassador Andranik Hovhannisyan said that his country had previously warned of "looming ethnic cleansing" in Nagorno-Karabakh, stressing it was now "in progress". For Armenians, the recent attacks in the enclave have brought back bitter memories of the 1915 genocide.

"Starvation as a method to destroy people was neglected by the entire international community when it was used against Armenians in 1915, Jews and Poles in 1939, Russians in Leningrad in 1941, and Cambodians in 1975-1976.

"Starvation was also used in Srebrenica in the winter of 1993-1994," Ocampo wrote. 

Last Thursday, the Paris-based International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) said in a statement that "while a ceasefire has been concluded, FIDH remains concerned that there is a real risk of genocide of ethnic Armenians in areas coming under Azerbaijan’s effective control".

The fact that Turkey presents itself as the main backer of Azeri aggression may strengthen painful memories of the 1915 Armenian genocide – still officially denied by Ankara – where an estimated 1.2 to 1.5 million Armenians were systematically killed by the Ottoman empire.

The incident came a day after Armenia accused treaty ally Russia of "absolute indifference" towards attacks on its territory.

Armenia accused Azerbaijan of massing forces close to the border, and striking its positions using drones, mortars and small arms fire. Azerbaijan denied gathering forces, but said it was taking "retaliatory measures".

Reuters was unable to verify the reports.

Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but inhabited primarily by ethnic Armenians, has been a source of conflict between the two Caucasus neighbours since before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and between ethnic Armenians and Turkic Azeris for well over a century.

The incident came a day after Armenia accused treaty ally Russia of "absolute indifference" towards attacks on its territory.

Armenia accused Azerbaijan of massing forces close to the border, and striking its positions using drones, mortars and small arms fire. Azerbaijan denied gathering forces, but said it was taking "retaliatory measures".

Reuters was unable to verify the reports.

Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but inhabited primarily by ethnic Armenians, has been a source of conflict between the two Caucasus neighbours since before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and between ethnic Armenians and Turkic Azeris for well over a century.

The incident came a day after Armenia accused treaty ally Russia of "absolute indifference" towards attacks on its territory.

Armenia accused Azerbaijan of massing forces close to the border, and striking its positions using drones, mortars and small arms fire. Azerbaijan denied gathering forces, but said it was taking "retaliatory measures".

Reuters was unable to verify the reports.

Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but inhabited primarily by ethnic Armenians, has been a source of conflict between the two Caucasus neighbours since before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and between ethnic Armenians and Turkic Azeris for well over a century.

- Mark Temnycky

Nagorno-Karabakh has once again caught the attention of international headlines as tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to flare. According to recent reports, Azerbaijan has yet to lift its blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. For more than 200 days, Azerbaijani officials have blocked the Lachin Corridor, “the only road that links the … region to Armenia.” Ethnic Armenians are being forced to withdraw from the region, and those who wish to stay are being told that they must take up Azerbaijani citizenship. Additional reports have stated that the region is running out of food and fuel. There is also a medicine shortage. Unfortunately, no one knows when the blockade will end.

These events are just the latest developments in a series of ongoing quarrels between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For decades, the two countries have fought over this territory. While several ceasefires have been signed, they have been constantly violated, and thousands have perished throughout the ongoing conflict.

To counter these ongoing disputes, the European Union established a mission to Armenia. The programme seeks to “observe and report on the security situation along the Armenian side of the international border with Azerbaijan. It will contribute to human security in conflict-affected areas in Armenia and build confidence between Armenia and Azerbaijan”.

The mission officially launched in February 2023 but European officials have struggled to make an impact. For example, while the EU announced that it would send a delegation to observe and monitor the situation, the programme was swiftly rejected by Azerbaijan. To Azerbaijani officials, they viewed the EU mission as an opportunity for Armenia to “procrastinate on negotiations” over Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijani leaders also see it as a “biased operation” as the programme discusses how it will protect Armenians in the region. It also does not include a mandate for “contain[ing] potential Armenian attacks or provocations against Azerbaijan”.

Meanwhile, the United States has also attempted to de-escalate the situation. In a recent statement issued by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the group stated that now was the time “for the US & its allies to exert pressure” on the Azerbaijani government to lift its blockade. US Senator Alex Padilla also introduced a resolution condemning Azerbaijan’s blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. Finally, several senators have called on the Biden administration to impose sanctions on Azerbaijan in order to lift the blockade. Despite these condemnations and calls to action, very little has been done to force an end to the blockade.

Given these recent and unsuccessful attempts, Armenian authorities are now concerned that a new war is likely with Azerbaijan. In a recent statement issued by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the leader noted that “So long as a peace treaty has not been signed and such a treaty has not been ratified … a [new] war [with Azerbaijan] is very likely.”

It is therefore imperative that a deal be reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia and Turkey previously attempted mediation following the renewed fighting in 2020. While a ceasefire was implemented, it was immediately broken. Since then, tensions have flared between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, and several people have been injured or killed. Furthermore, Russia and Turkey have become preoccupied with their own internal affairs, which have prevented them from serving in greater intermediary capacities. Russia’s illegal and unnecessary war in Ukraine has distracted the Russians from other international events, and Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis has prevented that country from serving in a greater role as well.

This leaves the EU and the United States with the important role of mitigating the situation. However, thus far both parties have failed to make an important impact. Given the rising stakes, it is crucial that both parties increase their involvement to try and broker a settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. They must change their strategies as previous attempts have failed. Sending millions of US dollars in financial and humanitarian assistance is helpful, but creating a format where Armenian and Azerbaijani officials can meet and speak willingly would be an essential step forward. The EU and the United States must also discuss long-term strategies with the Armenians and Azerbaijanis on how they will resolve the blockade, how they can provide assistance to those in need, and how they can ensure that the conflict does not flare up again after the conclusion of renewed discussions.

The globe is already preoccupied with the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the international community is working hard to stop Russia’s war. The world is also carefully monitoring China’s involvement in Asia, fearful that the Chinese may perform a similar act in Taiwan. With the international community determined to prevent further international conflicts, and with the continued uncertainty of what lies ahead, it is therefore imperative that negotiations be agreed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Otherwise, the globe might be faced with yet another international conflict.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eastern Europe and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He can be found on Twitter @MTemnycky

After years of diplomatic dormancy, the U.S. has accelerated its efforts to facilitate a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But short of ensuring a just peace, the only thing the Washington-backed talks appear to have produced is the emboldenment of Azerbaijan's aggression against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh (known as Artsakh in Armenian).

After Azerbaijan abandoned decades of multilateral diplomacy to launch a devastating military assault on Artsakh in 2020, a ceasefire agreement was signed that ostensibly put an end to active hostilities. Despite this, Azerbaijan has pressed its military advantage against Armenia through the invasion and occupation of its sovereign territory and the imposition of a humanitarian blockade on the Lachin Corridor—the only humanitarian lifeline connecting Artsakh to Armenia.

For over eight months, the region's 120,000 Indigenous Armenians—who declared their independence in the early 1990s following escalating violence and ethnic cleansing by Azerbaijan—have been deprived access to food, medicine, fuel, electricity, and water in what is nothing less than genocide by attrition.

Against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, one might think the expansionist assault on a fledgling democracy by a corrupt authoritarian regime engaged in weaponizing food would have elicited a strong response from the international community. But the desire to maintain favorable relations with Azerbaijan given its role as a European energy partner has outweighed any purported commitment to upholding human rights—bolstering Azerbaijan's aggression.

The same week peace talks began in Washington, Baku tightened its blockade by establishing a military checkpoint at the Lachin Corridor. And when Washington-based talks resumed in June, Azerbaijan began shelling the region. In the months since, the International Committee of the Red Cross has been denied access to Karabakh—and later reported that an Armenian patient in its care had been abducted by Azerbaijani forces en route to Armenia for treatment.

This is the predictable consequence of Washington's insistence on negotiations amid Azerbaijan's blockade of Artsakh and occupation of Armenian territory. This has signaled to Baku that its strategy of coercive diplomacy is working, disincentivizing de-escalation, and forcing Armenia to negotiate with a gun to its head.

The Biden administration's approach to Azerbaijan could not stand more diametrically opposed to its strategy toward Russia's invasion of Ukraine. While Secretary of State Antony Blinken has vehemently maintained that there will be "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine"—Washington has forced negotiations on Armenia with such recklessness that the Armenians in Artsakh have been denied a seat at the negotiating table.

Washington has also actively strengthened Azerbaijan's position by indicating support for Artsakh's integration into Azerbaijan. Given Azerbaijan's state-sponsored dehumanization of Armenians, the litany of human rights abuses perpetrated during and since the 2020 war, and its own disastrous domestic human rights record—it is impossible to imagine Armenians could ever live freely under Azerbaijan's rule.

For Azerbaijan, this disingenuous participation in negotiations has allowed it to uphold the veneer of cooperation while engaging in conduct that has immeasurably set back the prospects of a durable peace. And while Secretary Blinken and USAID Administrator Samantha Power have expressed their "deep concern for the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Nagorno-Karabakh," Washington has refused to impose costs on Azerbaijan for its attempts to subjugate the Armenian people through starvation and force. Administrator Power, who once expressed regret for not doing more to recognize the Armenian genocide while in office, now risks being a bystander as a second Armenian genocide unfolds.

Washington isn't powerless to prevent ethnic cleansing. To deter Azerbaijan's aggression, it could enforce restrictions on security assistance to Azerbaijan pursuant to Section 907 of the FREEDOM Support Act—as then-candidate Joe Biden pledged to do while on the campaign trail. Despite this, the Biden administration has twice since waived those restrictions—as successive U.S. administrations have for the last 20 years—on the grounds that cutting military aid to Baku would undermine efforts to contain Russia and Iran.

Washington's approach to the South Caucasus has long been an afterthought of its Russia and Iran policy. The long-term ramifications of a peace that abandons a vulnerable community to the whims of their would-be oppressors is balanced against the illusory perception of Azerbaijan's support for the containment of Russia and Iran. In that calculation, Artsakh's Armenians are treated as little more than collateral damage.

But as Baku has repeatedly demonstrated, it has no qualms engaging with Moscow and Tehran at the West's expense. Azerbaijan has allowed Iranian and Russian entities to purchase major stakes in the natural gas field that supplies Europe—and recently purchased significant quantities of Russian gas to meet domestic demand amid unrealistic export commitments. Azerbaijan has effectively provided Russia and Iran a backdoor into Europe's energy market—a product of the misplaced belief that you can contain one corrupt authoritarian regime by appeasing others.

As Azerbaijan's blockade of Artsakh threatens the very existence of the region's Indigenous Armenians, it's clear the West's Faustian bargain with one of the world's most oppressive regimes has produced the very outcomes it sought to avoid. Now's the time for Secretary Blinken and Administrator Power to live up to their purported commitment to place human rights at the forefront of U.S. foreign policy, and make clear that authoritarianism will be confronted consistently—not only when convenient.

Alex Galitsky is program director of the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA), the largest Armenian American grassroots advocacy organization in the United States.

Gev Iskajyan is executive director of the Armenian National Committee of Artsakh, and is currently based in Artsakh living under Azerbaijan's blockade.

The views expressed in this article are the writers' own.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-diplomacy-failing-armenia-opinion-1819248