NOTHING WILL PREVENT IRAN FROM EXTENSION OF ITS INFLUENCE IN THE REGION AFTER BECOMING A NUCLEAR POWER
ArmInfo
2010-04-21 12:59:00
Interview of Deputy Director of Noravank Scientific and Educational
Foundation, energy expert Sevak Sarukhanyan with ArmInfo News Agency
Mr. Sarukhanyan, in their latest speeches, presidents of the USA and
Russia touched on the issue of applying energy sanctions against Iran.
How much is it possible taking into account the situation in the
world energy market?
New sanctions against Iran will not affect export and import of oil
products and gas from Iran, as it has already become obvious that big
states are not ready to refuse Iranian oil. These sanctions will lead
to rise in prices and to instability in energy markets. First of all,
it is regarding China which buys 40% of the whole Iranian oil.
Therefore, China claimed at the Nuclear Security Summit that it is
ready to discuss the problem of sanctions against Iran, however, it
made no step in this direction. Most likely, no tangible sanctions
will be applied to Iran concerning this country’s energy sector, as
no one is ready today to refuse Iranian energy carriers. Actually,
the Washington summit has shown how much strong are the Iranian
positions today. The world outlines two real nuclear security threats
at present: creation of Iranian nuclear weapons and control over
Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
And what about Korea?
Korea is de-facto a nuclear country and even Americans have put up
with this. I am not sure about Iran, since Saudi Arabia and Turkey
will start developing nuclear weapon as soon as Iran creates it. The
balance of forces has not been changed yet and both these countries are
studying the Iranian nuclear program as a real threat for themselves,
though Turkey has not yet shown that openly. I think Pakistan is
the main threat to the global nuclear security, since the problem in
Pakistan where a civil war is going on and a part of the territory
is not controlled by the government, nuclear weapon may potentially
come to hand of terrorists.
Is the problem of control over the nuclear potential of Pakistan a
major source of Washington’s interest in Afghanistan?
In fact, these two problems are closely interrelated, as the Americans
limit the opportunities of coming of the radical Islamists to power
in the neighbouring Pakistan through control over the political
processes in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan and border districts of
Pakistan, Americans consistently destroy just the radical groupings
which pretend to the power in Pakistan.
What is the reason that Moscow does not support Washington’s idea of
imposing energy sanctions against Iran, since in case of embargoing
the Iranian oil, the prices for the Russian oil may reach the level
of 2008?
It is actually so from the economic viewpoint, however, having
supported the energy sanctions, Russia will much worsen its relations
with Tehran being its important partner, especially in the processes
which take place in Central Asia and Caucasus. Under any activation
of terrorist threat and appearance of new international conflicts
in these regions, Iran may become both a natural partner of Moscow
for their overcoming as well as controling. Perhaps, Iran will become
Russia’s rival in future, however, currently Tehran cannot step towards
confrontation with Moscow and does not want it, against the background
of serious problems with Washington. It is not clear what will happen
5 years later. It is quite possible that Iranians, which currently
spread their influence in the areas of interest of Russia first of
all economically, will fall back on the rougher ways of extending
their influence in the region, with creation of a nuclear weapon.
Does anything threaten Armenia-Iran cooperation?
I think it doesn’t. No sanctions will affect the Armenian-Iranian
energy cooperation. Iran will not scrap the cooperation with Armenia
and will not cease export of natural gas to Armenia, as the whole
complex of economic relations with Armenia is of a clear- cut
political nature. This is also regarding Iran’s relations with its
other neighbours. The second largest city of Iraq, Basra, uses the
Iranian electricity by 94%, while Iran incurs electricity deficit.
However, in order to bind Iraq with itself, Iran supplies electric
power to Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as gas to Turkey. All these
supplies have been conditioned by political necessity, and Armenia
takes an important place in Tehran’s regional policy. Nothing threatens
our relations.
You have noted Iran’s aspiration to increase its presence in the South
Caucasus. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki claimed of his
country’s intention to take part in the Karabakh settlement. Can this
statement be indication of the oncoming strengthening of Tehran as
a regional power?
Despite the fact that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki used
to say about the Iranian programme of settlement, the parties were
actually presented no programme in paper form. Tehran just claimed of
its readiness to become a mediator in the process, which was almost
directly rejected by Yerevan and Baku, as Iran is not the country able
to bring the parties in the Karabakh conflict to peaceful settlement.
More major powers are engaged in this issue, as they may further
guarantee both signing of a peaceful agreement and its implementation.
Attempts by Iran to interfere with the Karabakh process indicate its
strongest concern: it seems to Tehran that the process of finding
a peaceful solution to the conflict is close. Iran thinks that
peacekeeping forces, also represented by the states posing a threat
for Iran, may appear in the region with the conflict solution.
Therefore, Iran became more active in the Karabakh direction.
On April 7, Armenia and Russia approved Articles of Metsamorenergoatom
Russian- Armenian JSC on construction of a new nuclear power unit,
that actually confirmed the agreements reached within the frames of
the visit of Rosatom Director General Sergey Kirienko to Yerevan in
2009. How much is it correct to put all the eggs in one basket taking
into account the fact that the whole power system of the country is
in hand of Russia, as well as the fact that the French and Americans
have already expressed interest in construction of a new NPP unit?
The point is that neither the French nor Americans, unlike
the Russians, offered something essential for Armenia, except a
declarative interest in the project of construction of a new reactor
in Armenia. There was no "queue" for construction of a new power unit,
and Russia was the only interested party. Neither the USA nor France
are ready to invest $3-4 bln in construction of a new NPP in Armenia,
and it is unclear who the generated electric power will be sold to:
the demand of Armenian consumers may be satisfied without nuclear
power, and it will be profitable to build a powerful NPP just upon
availability of certain sales markets. Today it is apparent that
having built WWER-100 MW reactor, we should explain the potential
investors where income will be received from. It is also obvious
that Armenia still has no electric power sales market. It may appear
just after opening of the Armenian-Turkish border that may possibly
happen several years later. It was just Russia which expressed real
interest in implementation of this project, surely for political
reasons, since Moscow is interested in remaining a key player
of Armenia’s power-generating sector in order to keep monopoly
for electric power export from Armenia in future. Essentially,
this cannot but be good enough for us, as we would find no investor
for the project implementation without a political reason. I do not
understand dissatisfaction of the many with the fact that Russia is
so actively involved in Armenia’s energy sector: "Gazprom" invested
about $ 1 billion in Armenia’s gas transmission system through its
Armenian subsidiary, and "Rosatom" will shortly invest several billions
in the nuclear energy. Moreover, the Armenian power system gives no
essential revenue to the Russians, and the prices for energy carriers –
natural gas and nuclear fuel – are actually subsidized by the Russian
party and are lower as compared to other regional countries. Our power
industry is strong and stable thanks to the Russian investments. One
should remember that everything being built in Armenia by Russia will
operate in Armenia. Russians will take neither NPP nor gas pipelines
away with them.
Taking into the fact that opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is
laid on a shelf, may one expect a similar political decision regarding
construction of Iran-Armenia railway by Russia or Iran?
Political decision on construction has already been made in Armenia,
however, there are still no investors for its implementation, as the
project is very expensive. The point is that no less than 10 million
tons of cargo per year should be carried by rail from Armenia to
Iran for the project to become attractive for investors. The current
potential of Armenia does not exceed 1 million tons, cargo traffic
volumes must be increased tenfold for justification of construction,
for which negotiations should be held not only with Iran but also
with Georgia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, as well as the South-Asian
countries represented by India and Pakistan. It is a very long process
and requires no quick decisions.