How Russia played silent kingmaker in Armenia’s revolution

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Reuters: In the days before protesters overthrew Armenia’s veteran leader, Russian officials had high-level phone contacts with the protest leaders and the ruling elite that was clinging to power, according to three people briefed on the discussions.News In

Weeks of protests against corruption and cronyism culminated on Tuesday in Nikol Pashinyan, the protest leader, becoming prime minister, in a dramatic rupture with the cadre of officials who have run this ex-Soviet state since the late 1990s.

Breaking the mould of previous ex-Soviet popular revolts, especially a bloody uprising in Ukraine in 2014, Moscow did not back the ruling elite or their right to use force to crush the protest movement.

Unlike his counterparts in Ukraine, Pashinyan said he had no plans to pull Armenia out of Moscow’s orbit, and he took steps to reassure Moscow on that score, including via direct contacts, two of the sources said.

During the protests, Pashinyan spoke to the Russian embassy in Yerevan, and to an official in the Russian foreign ministry in Moscow, according to one of the protest leaders, Armen Grigoryan, and a businessman close to Pashinyan’s circle who did not want to be identified.

“We worked with them,” said Grigoryan, referring to Russian officials. He said protest leaders explained to Moscow the nature of their movement and that Russia’s interests would not be served by blocking them.

Russia’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on any contacts it had with people in Yerevan during the crisis.

In the streets, Pashinyan’s supporters were encouraged to display only Armenian national symbols – a conscious break from the Ukraine revolt which angered Moscow by adopting the European Union flag.

On the other side of the stand-off, Serzh Sarksyan, Armenia’s ruler for a decade, was in touch with Russian officials as he fought for survival, according to a diplomatic source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

In the 24 hours before Sarksyan quit as prime minister on April 23, he had telephone calls with officials in Moscow, the diplomatic source said. He did not reveal the content of the calls.

Russia’s influence was not the only factor in Armenia’s revolution. Missteps by Sarksyan and the energy of the protest movement played critical roles.

But the contacts with Russia help explain how Armenia was able to sweep its rulers away without violence or a prolonged standoff with the police.

Reuters has found no evidence that Russia actively intervened in the events in Armenia. Indeed, Moscow’s decision not to do so could have been enough to tilt the balance in favor of the protesters.

The contacts also underline how President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy, focused on stopping the West encroaching on Russia’s sphere of influence, has turned the Kremlin into de facto kingmaker in parts of the former Soviet Union.

Moments after he was installed as prime minister, Pashinyan said he hoped to meet Putin for talks soon, and he was sent a telegram from the Russian leader congratulating him on his appointment, the Kremlin said.

NO EU FLAGS

Sitting in an art cafe in central Yerevan, Pashinyan associate Grigoryan recalled how, when the protests started, few imagined they would lead to a revolution. Not more than 150 people showed up for the first rally against Sarksyan in Yerevan, on March 21, he said.

The movement adopted some innovative approaches. It was not tied explicitly to a political party. It used social media to organize. It attracted young people, many not previously involved in politics.

It used humor and satire. For example, the movement organized a spoof fund-raising campaign to create a retirement fund for Sarksyan. It circulated a caricature of Sarksyan photo-shopped to look like a dim-witted character from a Soviet-era children’s cartoon.

It also used direct action. “You don’t need many people to block a road, and that’s how we started,” said Grigoryan.

Crucially, it kept the focus on domestic concerns and steered away from the kind of geopolitical themes that dominated Ukraine’s “Euromaidan” anti-Moscow uprising in 2014.

“We learned from Euromaidan that a revolution should not have an international agenda,” said Grigoryan.

He said no explicit instructions were given to supporters not to wave the EU or U.S. flags at rallies, but he said: “It was generally understood that it would be just Armenian flags at our protests.”

Glendale mayor to visit Armenia

News.am, Armenia
May 6 2018
Glendale mayor to visit Armenia Glendale mayor to visit Armenia

20:24, 06.05.2018
                  

Zareh Sinanyan, Armenian mayor of the densely Armenian-populated City of Glendale in the US state of California, told the Voice of America Armenian Service that he will be visiting Armenia in the coming days.

“I will definitely head to Armenia,” he said. “I just want to be present at that historic moment, with our compatriots; I have no official mission.”

Sinanyan admitted that he did not expect such a turn of events in Armenia.

“We didn’t realize that not only the patience [of Armenia’s people] had run out, [but also] people were already ready to fight for their rights,” he added. “And a spark was needed, an organizer was needed, a leader was needed to [make the people] rise to [their] feet. And the like was found in the image of [Armenia National Assembly opposition “Way Out” (Yelk) Faction head and PM candidate] Nikol Pashinyan.” 

To note, world-renowned American Armenian musician Serj Tankian on Monday will arrive in Armenia.

Armenia turmoil: end in sight?

Agence France Presse
May 2, 2018 Wednesday 6:45 PM GMT


Armenia turmoil: end in sight?

Yerevan, May 2 2018

Armenian opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan on Wednesday called an end
to a huge wave of protests and said all parties would support his bid
to run for prime minister again next week.

Armenia's parliament is to hold an extraordinary session next Tuesday
in a new attempt to elect a prime minister, who holds the country's
top job under a parliamentary system of government.

But analysts said the latest development did not mark an end to
Armenia's most serious political crisis in years.

Events could unfold according to three possible scenarios.

- Pashinyan gets elected PM -

This now appears to be the most plausible scenario.

The hugely popular protest leader Pashinyan was on Tuesday eight votes
short of getting elected prime minister after the ruling Republican
Party -- which has a majority in the 105-seat legislature -- rejected
his bid.

"That was the first round of a showdown between Nikol and the
Republicans in which both sides flexed their muscles," said political
analyst Vigen Hakobyan.

Relying on massive popular support, Pashinyan, 42, piled pressure on
the ruling party through an unprecedented campaign of civil
disobedience, while the Republican Party demonstrated its tight
control of the legislature.

After Republicans indicated on Wednesday they would support
Pashinyan's bid this time around in an apparent effort to retain their
parliamentary majority he called an end to protests.

But many observers are sceptical they are genuinely ready to back the
opposition leader after the Republicans promised not to stand in the
way of Pashinyan's candidacy yet withheld their support during
Tuesday's vote.

Even if Pashinyan is elected prime minister the crisis will not end
because the ruling party will sabotage his initiatives in parliament.

"We are in for difficult times. The crisis is not over," said analyst
Arman Boshyan.

- Ruling party elects own PM -

The ruling party said it would not nominate its own candidate, just
like it said last time before sabotaging Pashinyan's bid.

In principle, the Republicans could easily withdraw support for
Pashinyan and elect their own candidate.

But given the party's increasing unpopularity with everyday Armenians
the move would only deepen the crisis, leading to unpredictable
political and economic consequences.

Analysts say the turmoil is quickly eroding the party's capacity to
govern the country as the elites are increasingly losing both
legitimacy and control over state institutions.

"Society no longer wants to obey these authorities," said analyst
Stepan Safaryan, adding many state employees have joined the protest
movement.

After "electing their own candidate, they could take a reckless step
and introduce an emergency situation," Safaryan added.

Critics accuse the government of corruption and failure to tackle
widespread poverty in the tiny South Caucasus nation of 2.9 million
people.

- Dissolution of parliament -

If lawmakers fail to elect a prime minister for a second time next
week, the legislature will be dissolved and early elections called.

Early parliamentary polls must be held no sooner than 30 days and no
later than 45 days after the chamber is dissolved.

Such a development would be the least desired option for the
authorities as the Republican Party may lose its majority or fail to
make it into parliament at all.

"I think they will do everything to avoid this," said Safaryan.

"They understand that there's no way they will get into parliament
during snap elections," added analyst Manvel Sargsyan.

Some observers said that the Republicans might opt for a wait-and-see
approach hoping that popular protests will fade away in the run-up to
new elections, effectively stripping Pashinyan of his main political
weapon.

If the government resorts to extreme measures and introduces a state
of emergency, early elections will not be held, according to the
constitution.

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