Author: Jack Hunanian

On the night of October 6, 2021, a passenger plane of the Azerbaijani state airline AZAL made a regular flight Baku-Nakhichevan via the airspace of Armenia. What does this mean and what prospects does it hold for the region? Information and comments from both sides.

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• “Tehran is watching closely.” What will happen to cargo transportation from Iran to Armenia
• Ex-President Robert Kocharian: serious processes are going on, and they are not in favor of Armenia
• Why did the second Karabakh war happen? Comments and vox-pop from Azerbaijan

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On Tuesday, October 5, Iran notified Azerbaijan of the closure of its airspace for military cargo air transportation of Azerbaijani airlines in the direction of Nakhichevan. For a long time, Azerbaijani aircraft used air corridors over Iran to perform flights from the main part of the country to the exclave – the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic – bypassing Armenia.

The decision of Tehran was another consequence of the aggravation of relations between the Islamic republic and its northern neighbor, Azerbaijan.

The next day, AZAL operated a passenger flight to Nakhichevan through the territory of Armenia. It should be noted that Iran did not close its airspace for Azerbaijan for passenger traffic.

“This step demonstrates Azerbaijan’s resolute readiness to unblock transport communications in the region, which meets the interests of all border countries.

Changing the route of the Baku-Nakhichevan-Baku flight will also lead to a reduction in the flight time in this direction and decrease fuel consumption during the flight”, reads AZAL press release.

As the company stressed, from now on, when performing this flight, AZAL can use all existing air corridors, including those passing through the territories of Armenia and Iran.

The crew of the first board, which flew to Nakhichevan via Armenia

It is also noted that Armenian air carriers can use air routes passing through Azerbaijan.

Passenger buses on the Baku-Nakhichevan-Baku route continue to run through the territory of Iran. This was reported by the State Automobile Transport Service of Azerbaijan.

The Azerbaijani segment of social media reacted positively to this development but some had questions to the management of the local airline.

Here are some of the typical comments:

“At the beginning of 2010, I often flew to Nakhichevan and I remember that once, on a cloudless day, I clearly saw that we were flying over Lake Sevan. I still remember that several years ago Matthew Bryza was perplexed by the protests of Azerbaijan over the airport in Khankendi (Stepanakert). He wrote that Azerbaijani planes also use air routes over Armenia for flights to Nakhichevan”.

“AZAL says that from now on, the flight time to Nakhichevan and fuel consumption will be reduced. But, of course, no one expects tickets to get cheaper”.

“The Zangezur corridor is opening. Iran is once again out of the game”.

The Civil Aviation Committee of Armenia confirmed that on October 6, the flight on the Baku-Nakhichevan route was carried out over the country’s airspace. Moreover, the committee said that the use of the airspace of both Armenia and Azerbaijan was not limited for passenger aircraft, with the exception of the 44-days of the war in Karabakh (from September 27 to November 10, 2020).

The Armenian government did not comment on the situation in any way, but there is an active discussion about it on social media. Most of the users believe that the Armenian authorities are succumbing to the pressure of Azerbaijan. Political scientists also joined the discussion.

Turkologist Varuzhan Geghamyan wrote on his Facebook page that Armenia opened the first “Turkic corridor”:

“In fact, this was the first component of the Azerbaijan-Nakhichevan-Turkey corridor. […] The capitulation regime in effect in Armenia since 2020, in order to preserve its power, agreed to fulfill the main demand of Turkey and Azerbaijan – to ensure communication between the two countries through their own territory. The air section of the corridor was officially granted this morning.

Such cases fully prove that today there is a de facto pro-Turkish government in Armenia. If the activities of the capitulator [meaning Prime Minister Pashinyan, who signed the trilateral document on the ceasefire in Karabakh] is not stopped with the assistance of national forces and foreign partners, then the turn of the land corridor will come behind the air corridor”.

Since the conclusion of an armistice in Karabakh, Azerbaijan has been insisting on the provision of a land corridor through the south of Armenia with its exclave Nakhichevan. All this time, the Armenian side continues to assert that the statement signed by the Prime Minister of Armenia speaks of unblocking all communications. There is no talk in the document about a “corridor” that will not be controlled by Armenia.

Political scientist Movses Harutyunyan also commented on the situation on his Facebook page, responding to the opinion spreading on social media: “Patriotic Iran closes its airspace for Azerbaijan, and pro-Turkish Armenia opens”:

“This idea is doubly wrong: Iran did not close, and Armenia did not open its airspace.

1.Firstly, the airspace of Armenia has never been closed to Azerbaijani civil air transportation. It was Azerbaijan that in 2013, on its own initiative, decided to stop air transportation through the airspace of Armenia in order to inflict economic damage on us, and yesterday it decided to resume the transportation of citizens through our territory.

2.The airspace of Azerbaijan, in turn, was not closed to Armenian airlines. But Armenia refused to carry out transportation through the territory of Azerbaijan. Similarly, we can, for example, start using their airspace today.

3.Iran has closed the possibility of military flights, and the air remains open for civil flights from Azerbaijan.

4.Even if we want to, we cannot prohibit Azerbaijan to carry out civil air transportations through our airspace, since the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation prohibits the member states of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) from taking a discriminatory approach to the use of their airspace”.

Ex-President of Armenia Robert Kocharian harshly criticized the current authorities. During his press conference, which lasted about two hours, he accused Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of ill-considered steps that led to the war in Karabakh and eventual defeat. Moreover, he suggested that the war ended in accordance with hidden agreements with the enemy.

The most important theses voiced during the press conference of the former president, acting in the role of irreconcilable opposition to the current authorities.

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• Op-ed: does Armenian parliament have any real power?
• Will upcoming elections in Armenia just be a repeat of the past?
• Op-ed: ‘Blood, toil, tears and sweat’ – solving the Armenian political crisis

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• The Armenian authorities, with their ill-considered steps, created favorable conditions for Azerbaijan to resolve the Karabakh conflict by means of violent conflict
• The negotiation process was stalled by the conflicting statements of the Armenian side. This aroused mistrust on the part of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs [mediators of peace talks before the start of the Karabakh war in autumn 2020 – JAMnews]. The impression is that the Armenian authorities want to avoid substantive negotiations
• The army was discredited, the government of the country was chaotic, relations with Russia and the CSTO military bloc operating under its auspices were ruined.
• The authorities did everything to ensure that Armenia was isolated before the start of the war
• In this situation, it was clear to the Azerbaijani authorities that there would be no better conditions for resolving the conflict by force, and the risks for starting and conducting a war for him were minimal.
• The Armenian leadership did everything to involve Turkey in this conflict:

“If the Armenian authorities were Turkish agents, they would do the same to achieve this goal”.

• Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s call for the formation of volunteer units during the war was a signal for Azerbaijan that Armenia no longer has resources and military pressure on the front can be increased
• It is not armies that are fighting, but states, which is why the authorities mobilize all resources for victory during hostilities. But the supreme commander-in-chief of Armenia [Prime Minister Pashinyan] did not mobilize all human and material resources. The mobilization failed. This is the first reason for defeat
• The war is waged by the state, not just the armed forces. The army was left without political support during the hostilities
• The Armenian authorities want to place all the blame for the defeat on the army but it is necessary to understand who made the fundamental mistakes. And it’s time for the generals to speak, otherwise all the blame will be laid on them.
• The country’s authorities continue to evade clarifications on a number of issues related to the war. The accusations against them remain unanswered. An in-depth investigation is needed
• It is very likely that the war began due to the shortsightedness of the Armenian authorities, but it may have ended already in accordance with the agreements with the enemy.

• The Armenian authorities stopped talking about Nagorno-Karabakh. The solution of all issues related to Karabakh is deliberately shifted to Russia:

“Armenia has ceased to be the guarantor of the security of Karabakh, moreover, it seems that the country’s authorities seem to be washing their hands”.

• Soon the society will connect all issues on Karabakh with the Russian side, including all unfavorable decisions
• Baku announces that it has finally solved the Karabakh issue. What will happen if Azerbaijan abandons the mandate of the peacekeepers in Karabakh after the end of their mission [in 2025]
• It is impossible to talk about the beginning of an era of peace when you cannot establish it in your country:

“We are talking about an era of peace in the region [Prime Minister Pashinyan stated this as the plans of his government]. The question arises: “Seriously?” […] What are you [addressing the Armenian Prime Minister] to make such statements? Funny. You are not sitting at the negotiating table, you are at this table. You are being discussed without your participation. You have ceased to be a subject of negotiations, you are an object”.

• It is not very convenient to negotiate on your knees, and you cannot negotiate with the one who mocks you [talking about the President of Azerbaijan].

• Serious processes are taking place in the South Caucasus, and they are not in favor of Armenia
• You cannot beg for the normalization of relations with Turkey. The Prime Minister of Armenia needs this only to maintain power [Nikol Pashinyan spoke of his readiness to normalize relations with Turkey]. It will be a one-sided game, and it will be the gates of Armenia:

“We will be in the role of a supplicant. This has never happened before. At one time, they themselves turned to me as the President of Armenia, trying to create a commission. All these letters are there. You can see for yourself in what tone we then answered them. “

• Turkey poses a danger to Armenia, obviously a clash of interests, but this does not mean that it is necessary to completely abandon the dialogue with Ankara.

• The ultimate goal of the current Armenian authorities is to retain power
• The opposition, represented by the Hayastan parliamentary bloc (Armenia) [Robert Kocharian heads it, does not take part in its work himself, renounced his parliamentary mandate] will continue to fight for a change of power. This is a process, and all the available tools for a change of power will be used:

“Yes, we will fight, we will also fight in the streets, but the necessary conditions must be ripe for this. We need to work with the people throughout Armenia, we need to convince the people. “

• If the bloc fails to organize a street fight, this will mean that it has not been possible to find the right words to speak with society, or people have accepted, reconciled with what is happening.

Nikol Pashinyan has always presented himself as an opposition politician, he was the leader of the 2018 velvet revolution, which brought him to power. Under pressure from the society that supported the revolution, the parliamentary majority approved his candidacy for the post of Prime Minister of Armenia.

The future prime minister made his first serious steps in the political arena in 2007, founding the social and political initiative “Alternative”. In the 2008 parliamentary elections, he was number one on the list of the Impeachment bloc, which sought the resignation of President Robert Kocharian and Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan. But the block failed to overcome the barrier to entry.

In the 2008 presidential elections, Nikol Pashinyan represented the interests of presidential candidate Levon Ter-Petrosyan [the first president of Armenia, resigned in 1998]. On March 1, 2008, after the dispersal of a demonstration of those who disagreed with the election results and the death of 10 people in the events, Pashinyan went underground for a year and four months due to charges of organizing mass riots.

On July 1, 2010, he voluntarily appeared in the prosecutor’s office, was arrested and sentenced to seven years. One year and 11 months later, he fell under an amnesty timed to coincide with the 20th anniversary of Armenia’s independence. Political analysts believe that the authorities were forced to take this step under pressure from international structures. Immediately after coming to power, the Pashinyan government revived the so-called “March 1” case.

On July 28, 2018, Robert Kocharian was arrested. The former president of Armenia was accused of overthrowing the constitutional order. This was related to the events of March 1, 2008. Kocharian spent over a year in prison. As a result, he was acquitted on the basis of the decision of the Constitutional Court on the unlawfulness of the accusation.