Author: Jagharian Tania

INTERVIEW WITH RUBEN SAFRASTYAN, PH.D. ON THE CAUCASUS, RUSSIA AND TURKEY

Global Politician, NY
July 4 2006

Q: The statement of Matthew Bryza, OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair
for settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict, caused numerous
comments. What do you think on the occasion?

A: Matthew Bryza’s statement is not a result of lack of experience,
as some Armenian politicians think, but an attempt of the U.S.

Administration to speed up political processes in the region. This is
a sign that the geopolitical situation in the region started changing
and the status quo, which has been sustained for 12 years tends to
change. I mean two processes: the withdrawal of the Russian troops
from Georgia and the completion of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline
building.

The U.S. Administration takes certain steps and the future will show
how the new line will be put into operation. There are attempts
to increase pressure upon Armenia not only as regards the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict. The attempts to engage Armenia into the NATO sphere
of influence are obvious. It’s known that Georgia is aspired to the
Alliance and it seems to be accepted just to spite Russia.

Armenia’s counteraction should be adequate what can be proved by the
RAMFA’s statement on the possible demand to hold talks immediately
between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan. As for the possibility of
resumption of hostilities, Azerbaijan does not possess sufficient
advantage to start war. the military balance is still being preserved
what cannot be said of the geopolitical situation.

Q: How important is the role of Turkey in the region and can this be
bound with the weakening of Russia’s presence?

A: The role of Turkey is growing. It assumes an active role and in
case with Iran it has a good chance. The strengthening of Turkey’s
influence upon Georgia is also one of the tasks of Turkish diplomacy.

They call it "strategic cooperation" and since Georgia seeks
to join the NATO, Turkey can be a serious support. From the
geopolitical standpoint, the U.S. is interested in normalization
of relations between the two states. The same refers to the
Armenia-Turkey relations. This is one of the fundamental issues of
the American-Turkish consultations. I think normalization of relations
is more profitable for Armenia rather then for Turkey.

As for the Russian-Turkish relations, they can be characterized as
geo-strategic armistice which may result in signing of an agreement.

Presently the situation in the South Caucasus is like that of
December 1917. History proves that when Russia leaves the South
Caucasus Turkey occupies its place immediately. Now the U.S. joined
the process. Using the Iranian factor Turkey will increase influence
with the U.S. assistance. Who will replace Putin? Much depends on
this fact. If a man like him comes to power the priorities will be
preserved. If others come everything will become unclear. I do not
rule out return of oligarchs.

Q: The EU opened talks with Turkey. Unpredictable Greece and Cyprus
have raised their veto. But is there any guarantee that everything
will proceed smoothly?

A: Greece and Turkey have really raised the veto in exchange for some
concessions including Cyprus’s accession to the NATO. It’s obvious
Turkey will not allow this step since it will have to withdraw it
contingent numbering 35-40 thousand military from Northern Cyprus. I
should say that changes take place in Turkey. How much paradoxical
it may sound but the Islamist line pursued by Recep Tayyip leads the
country towards democratization. Islamists wish to limit the role of
the General Staff in the home and foreign policy. The period launched
by the young Turks and Kemal Ataturk comes to an end. The incumbent
government stands for Islam which promotes the process of European
integration. Erdogan can become Turkey’s new president and this will
mean the final end of Kemalists represented by President Ahmed Necet
Sezer. Of course there is a risk. If the positions of the military
weaken we will have to deal with unpredictable Turkey. But it’s
premature to speak of it yet.

D=1922&cid=4&sid=35

NKR DELEGATION MEETS WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF LEGISLATIVE BODY AND KNOWN US ORGANIZATIONS IN WASHINGTON

ARKA News Agency, Armenia
July 4 2006

STEPANAKERT, July 4. /ARKA/. The Speaker of the NKR National Assembly
Ashot Gulyan and NKR Minister of Foreign Affairs Georgy Petrosyan
held a number of meetings with representatives of the legislative
body and US known organizations in Washington.

On June 28, Gulyan and Petrosyan met with the Head of Eastern
(Clinician) Eparchy of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Arch-Bishop
Oshakan Choloyan within the framework of their working visit to USA,
the NKR Foreign Ministry reports.

During the meeting Gulyan expressed Choloyan gratitude for constant
support to Artsakh, expressing belief that warm relations developed
during many years and cooperation will have their continuation in
the future as well.

On June 29, NKR delegation met with the US Congressman, Chairman of
subcommittee on foreign assignments Jim Colby. On behalf of people
and authorities of Karabakh Gulyan and Petrosyan expressed gratitude
to the US Congress for the fidelity to principles shown in the course
of rendering assistance to the NKR.

Presenting humanitarian needs of Nagrono-Karabakh, the delegation
representatives called to go on with the support, covering newer
directions, including spheres of democracy development, strengthening
of market economy and human rights.

On June 29, the NKR delegation met with the Chairman of Marshall Legacy
Institute organization Perry Baltimore. During their conversation
sides discussed issues relating to implementation of programs on mine
clearing in Karabakh and perspectives of possible cooperation in the
humanitarian sphere.

Besides that In the Armenian Embassy in USA was held a reception in
the honor of the NKR delegation, in which took part; members of the US
Government, American and foreign diplomats, heads and representatives
of international and Armenian organization, journalists and members
of the Armenian community.

Presenting officials of Nagorno-Karabakh to gathered people, the
Ambassador of Armenia in US Tatul Margaryan pointed out achievements
of the people and authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh in years of
independence.

In his turn Gulyan, when making a speech, positively estimated results
of the delegation’s visit, assuring gathered people in adherence
of people and authorities of NKR to values of independence, freedom
and democracy.

Working visit of the delegation of Nagorno-Karabakh ended on June 30.

FLIGHT OF CRASHED A320 TO BE MODELED
By Aghavni Harutyunian

AZG Armenian Daily
04/07/2006

The French specialists are going to model the May 3 flight of the
crashed A320 airbus, Artyom Movsisian, head of RA State Civil Aviation
Department, said.

Gagik Galstian, deputy head of Flight Security Department at RA State
Civil Aviation Department, left for France for modeling activities. The
modeling will be based on the data revealed after decoding the black
boxes of the crashed airbus. The records of the block boxes will help
fully imitate the duration of the flight.

"ECHO": "CERTAINLY, WITHDRAWAL OF ARMENIAN TROOPS FROM CONFLICT ZONE TO REDUCE TENSION IN REGION"

Ïðaâî Âûaîða, Azerbaijan
Democratic Azerbaijan
July 3 2006

Matthew Brise, Co-Chairman of OSCE Minsk Group considers so Co-Chairmen
of the OSCE Minsk Group brought peace dialogue to certain phase,
after which the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia should take
decision themselves. Reportedly Trend News-Agency, the Adviser of the
U.S. State Secretary for Europe & Eurasia issues, Co-Chairman of the
OSCE Minsk Group, Matthew Brise stated.

"Other co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group, and also Stephen Mann whom
I replaced in the post of Co-chairman, in a day of previous interview
stated that "my words can make people to become thoughtful and will
create ground for sound debates in region," said the American diplomat.

"I do not wonder at holding debates but at those who not familiarized
with the latest statement of the Co-Chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group
in Vienna, expressed so rapid reaction. Co-Chairmen’s statement clearly
says that, but my statement was just a brief generalization," he said.

To the question, his statement for peace plan can be regarded as a
part of strategy for beginning of debates, M. Brise responded: "Yes
and not. I just gave detailed information about progressing events.

The document submitted to the OSCE Permanent Council is open for
society."

Talking of contradictory statements concerning referendum on the
Nagorno-Garabagh status, the American co-chairman said that finally,
the sides failed to agree over the main principles of regulation
developed by the Presidents and Ministers of Foreign Affairs for the
last two years. Because both Presidents bear responsibility for that
agreement has not been yet reached. "I can’t say who from the Head
of States bear the greatest responsibility. Any time the Presidents
can state that agreement on the main principles has been reached,
or declare that this agreement has been changed and a package plan
to be taken," said the Co-Chairman.

"My predecessor and other co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group used all
their skills and energy for preparing "frame agreement", implying the
main principles of regulation process. The Presidents need a time to
well consider and adopt a decision on this agreement," he continued
and added that "in statement, the co-chairmen want to note that there
is no place for diplomatic creative work, polishing of a metal."

"Mutual political compromises in this document are so important that
should be done by the Presidents. I am very energetic and know the
leaders well enough. We’ll continue work with them and do not state
that the negotiation process stopped forever. But we want to note
that we brought the dialogue to certain phase after which heads of
states should take decision themselves," he said.

Furthermore, M. Brise said that certainly, the withdrawal of Armenian
troops from conflict will reduce tensity in region. "That’s why
this question is an important element of the main principles of
regulation. But demanding from Armenians "withdraw your troops from
region that to allow to reduce tensity in the region", we won’t
achieve what we want. If Armenians know that instead of that they
will get something, they will do that. They are the main principles.

The experts are right, if Armenian armed forces are withdrawn, it
will reduce a tensity. But instead of that they should get something.

That’s why Heads of States should take a hard decision," he stated.

M. Brise also said that regional demilitarization will entail
the national elections or referendum on future status of the
Nagorno-Garabagh.

The difficulty is how to coordinate the temporary parameters of
withdrawal or re-deployment of Armenian armed forces with the status
of the Nagorno-Garabagh. Just that factor complicates this problem.

M. Brise hopes that the Nagorno-Garabagh conflict will be included to
the agenda of G8 conference in St. Petersburg. Minister of Foreign
Affairs of Russia, Sergey Lavrov stated that this issue would be
discussed. "We’d like that this question to be included to the meeting
agenda," said the Advisor of the U.S. State Secretary for Europe &
Eurasia issues.

–Boundary_(ID_6VDIu+3nPQZu1ZnmMJEpLw)–

IF THEY UNDERSTAND, THEY WILL FINANCE

Lragir.am
1 July 06

On June 30 U.S. Ambassador John Evans stated that the United States
assists in working out a long-term energy strategy in Armenia.

John Evans affirmed that the Unites States perceives the importance of
the use of alternative energy sources and diversification of energy
supply, and knows that in this context one of the options under
consideration is the building of a new atomic power plant. Evans
announced that the project of building a new atomic plant involves
participation of international donors, which depends on the
possibility to perceive fully the strategy of Armenia in the sphere of
energy and closing of the old atomic power plant.

John Evans suggested that Armenia discuss how the settlement of
complicated problems with Azerbaijan will affect diversification of
energy supply and finding new markets for generated electricity.

PACE COMMISSION TO VISIT NAGORNY KARABAKH IN OCTOBER

RIA Novosti, Russia
June 29, 2006

YEREVAN, June 29 (RIA Novosti) – Armenian and Azerbaijani officials
have agreed to let a special commission of the Parliamentary Assembly
of the Council of Europe on Nagorny Karabakh visit the conflict zone
in October.

Committee head Lord Russell Johnston proposed during a meeting in
Strasbourg that a seminar be held for parliamentary members from the
warring sides, an Armenian parliamentary source said.

PACE approved the structure of the commission, which will include
heads of the Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations to PACE, one
representative of the opposition from each side, rapporteurs of the
Council of Europe monitoring group on the countries, Lord Russell
Johnston, and a rapporteur on missing persons.

The conflict between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and
Azerbaijan over Nagorny Karabakh, an Azerbaijani region with a largely
Armenian population, first erupted in 1988, when the region claimed
independence from Azerbaijan to join Armenia.

Over 30,000 people were reported dead on both sides between 1988
and 1994, and over 100 others died after a ceasefire was concluded
in 1994, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenian hands, but tensions
between Azerbaijan and Armenia have persisted.

AZERI DELEGATION TO PACE HELD A NEWS CONFERENCE ON FACTS OF ARMENIAN VANDALISM
Author: J.Shahverdiyev

TREND, Azerbaijan
June 29 2006

Azerbaijani parliamentary delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly
of the Council of Europe (PACE) held a news conference on 29 June on
the facts of fires, broken up by Armenians in the occupied territory
of Azerbaijan, Gultakin Hajiyeva, the deputy head of the Azerbaijani
delegation to the PACE, told Trend.

Journalists from different countries participated in the news
conference. "Azerbaijani delegates put forward impressive arguments
while responding journalists. It was a next step by the Azerbaijani
delegation under the PACE summer session, which unmasked the Armenian
vandalism," she underlined.

EUROCOPTER VISE UN CONTRAT DE 2 MILLIARDS D’EUROS

La Tribune
27 juin 2006

Eurocopter, la filiale d’EADS, va avoir aujourd’hui le regard tourne
vers la Turquie. Ankara doit en principe se decider a l’occasion
d’une reunion, a laquelle participeront le Premier ministre Turc,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, les ministres de la Defense et des Finances
ainsi que le directeur des achats d’armement, sur le choix de son
nouvel helicoptère de combat.

Ils vont examiner cinq propositions de constructeurs d’helicoptères,
qui ont repondu a un appel d’offres en vue d’equiper les forces armees
terrestres turques de 50 appareils fermes (et 43 en option) pour un
contrat de l’ordre de 2 milliards d’euros : le Tigre d’Eurocopter,
l’Apache de l’americain Boeing, l’A129 de l’italien AgustaWestland,
le Rooivalk du sud-africain Denel et enfin le Kamov 50 russe. En
contrepartie, la Turquie demande que 40 % a 50 % des helicoptères
soient fabriques sur son territoire. Cette reunion pourrait toutefois
etre reportee a mi-septembre, estime-t-on de source proche du dossier.

Les Turcs semblent hesiter pour l’heure entre le Tigre, l’Apache
et l’A129, le moins cher des trois, selon nos informations et qui
est appele Mangusta en Italie, l’unique acheteur. Le Rooivalk et le
Kamov 50 font figure d’outsiders. S’agissant d’Eurocopter, il entre
en ligne de compte la politique francaise vis-a-vis de la Turquie,
notamment la position de la France sur le genocide armenien. Il y
a dix jours, la ministre deleguee au Commerce exterieur, Christine
Lagarde, avait estime en compagnie de son homologue turc a Istanbul
que " les relations entre les deux pays sont excellentes, toutes les
courbes sont ascendantes ".

Pour autant, estime-t-on dans les milieux de la defense, " si les
Turcs devaient choisir techniquement le Tigre, ils attendraient de
concretiser le contrat a l’automne pour juger de l’evolution de la
proposition de loi francaise visant a penaliser les propos niant
le genocide armenien " commis en Anatolie entre 1915 et 1917. Deja
present en Turquie, Eurocopter – qui engrange de nombreux contrats en
ce moment – a deja vendu une vingtaine d’helicoptères Cougar a l’armee
turque dans les annees 90. La Turquie avait ete aussi interessee
par le Rooivalk dans les memes annees, mais a ete econduite par
l’administration de l’ancien president Nelson Mandela, qui refusait de
vendre des armes a des pays menant sur leur territoire des conflits
contre des mouvements separatistes. L’armee turque combat depuis
vingt-deux ans la rebellion de separatistes kurdes en Anatolie où
les helicoptères sont particulièrement utilises dans les terrains
montagneux.

–Boundary_(ID_R+kdi1cH6vpvL rzFnHvfIQ)–

ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER VISITS GEORGIA

Armenpress
Jun 28 2006

TBILISI, JUNE 28, ARMENPRESS: Armenian foreign ministry said Georgia’s
Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili received Armenia’s Foreign Minister
Vartan Oskanian in Tbilisi, on June 27, on the first day of Minister
Oskanian’s working visit to Georgia.

In their welcoming remarks, the two foreign ministers shared the belief
that Armenian-Georgian relations, based on solid historic ties, will
continue to develop in the spirit of friendship and cooperation. The
two ministers discussed bilateral issues in detail. They noted that the
Armenian-Georgian bilateral agenda is a full one and this broad-based
relationship is reflected in frequent and high-level visits.

The sides stressed the need to further coordinate economic and business
ties in order to encourage greater trade and more investments. They
noted that the development of economically efficient transport routes
is essential for greater economic activity.

They also discussed issues related to energy security.

The two ministers explored ways to seek the assistance of international
organizations and individual countries in cross-border rural
development programs.

Armenia’s Foreign Minister stressed the economic and political
importance of the operation of the Kars-Gyumri-Tbilisi rail line,
and its contribution to the growth of trade in the region, equally
benefiting all countries.

The Georgian Foreign Minister affirmed that Georgia is aware of its
bridging role and responsibility in the region and will continue to
work for more favorable transit conditions for Armenia. He explained
that Georgia , too, is interested in ensuring diversified transport
routes. In discussing Javakhk, Minister Oskanian stressed that
the Armenian government stands prepared to work with the Georgian
government to resolve the socio-economic problems facing the population
of Javakhk.

They addressed issues of border delimitation and confirmed that there
exists the political will on both sides to resolve outstanding issues
and reach a mutually acceptable solution. Regarding euro-integration
processes, and specifically the European Neighborhood Policy
and deepening cooperation with NATO, they noted the importance of
coordinating efforts. Minister Oskanian briefed his colleague on the
current state of the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations. In turn, Minister
Bezhuashvili spoke about the negotiations surrounding Abkhazia and
South Ossetia.

The meeting between the ministers was followed by a joint press
conference. Later on the same day, Georgia’s President Mikhail
Saakashvili received Armenia’s Foreign Minister. On Wednesday, the
Minister’s visit will continue.

LENMARKER’S REPORT ON NK CONFLICT NOT TO BE DISCUSSED AT OSCE PA’S SUMMER SESSION

Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
June 27 2006

The OSCE Parliamentary Assembly’s 15th session will be held in
Brussels from July 3 to 8. Head of the Azerbaijani parliamentary
delegation to OSCE PA, Bahar Muradova told the APA that the Session
will be dedicated to the human security problem.

The vice-speaker said the discussions at the session will also focus on
frozen conflicts, energy security, human rights, results of elections
conducted in different countries, disputed problems in Asia and Eastern
Europe and activity of the OSCE missions in these countries as well as
security of economy, investment, and raw materials market in Eurasia.

"The issue on all conflict zones, including the Nagorno Garabagh will
be debated. We have presented our proposals on the Resolution to be
adopted by al of the three OSCE committees. We’ll try to achieve in
adopting these proposals during the discussions," Ms.Muradova said.

Muradova also said the report on the Nagorno Garabagh conflict drawn
up by Goran Lenmarker, OSCE PA rapporteur on the conflict will not
be discussed at the session. She noted that Lenmarker drew up his
report after his latest visit to Azerbaijan and sent draft resolution
in two variants to Azerbaijan for acquaintance, "One of these draft
resolutions consisted of nine items and the other eleven items. As
our approaches differed from that of Goran Lenmarker in both of the
drafts resolution, we consolidated the drafts into a new 12-item
variant. In his response to us, Lenmarker wrote that Armenia also
demonstrated a different approach to the draft resolution, and
the proposals of the two countries were contrastive enough. The
rapporteur said the discussion of the Nagorno Garabagh conflict at
the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly during this session was postponed,
explaining it by short of time and the sides not having agreed on
their positions," Muradova said.

The vice-speaker said they are going to deliver speech on the current
situation regarding the conflict and massive fires in the occupied
Azerbaijani territories caused by Armenians, "Though this issue is
not on the official agenda, we’ll put this into discussion."