Forecasts: IMF Vs. Armenian Government

FORECASTS: IMF VS. ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT

news.am
April 12 2010
Armenia

Guillermo Tolosa, IMF Resident Representative in Armenia, recently
informed the Armenian public of the IMF’s forecasts.

Specifically, the IMF forecasts an inflation rate of 6.2%, which
is entirely contrary to the RA Government’s forecasts – a budgeted
inflation rate of 2.5%-5.5%.

This January-March, the consumer price index "set a record" by reaching
108.2% over the recent years. The April 1 rise in the gas price is
expected to push up inflation and, later, prices. Under circumstances,
might the consumer index fall down to the level forecast by the IMF?

Last year, which is a basis for calculations of the consumer
price index, was marked by relatively low inflation. Specifically,
in February, as well as in the summer, the chain index even fell
below 100%. With a low price base considered, the annual inflation
will hardly go down to the level forecast by Mr. Tolosa, to say
nothing of the budgeted inflation. This requires a sharp reduction
in the prices for products and services with a large share in the
"statistical basket." It is only possible on paper.

As regards forecasts, they, as a rule, are conveniently forgotten. Let
us recall a couple of forecasts made last year, after the Armenian
dram was "allowed to flow." The then Chairman of the Central Bank
of Armenia (CBA) stated that the GDP was to be "several percent" in
Armenia in 2009. The day before, Nienke Oomes, the then IMF Resident
Representative in Armenia, issued a less optimistic forecast, a 1.5%
decrease. Both the forecasts proved blatantly false. Armenia registered
the first largest decline in GDP (14.4%) in the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS).

Calcutta, The City Of All Our Yesterdays

CALCUTTA : THE CITY OF ALL OUR YESTERDAYS

O Calcutta!
Mihir S Sharma
Posted online: Saturday , Apr 03, 2010 at 1443 hrs

The fire at Stephen Court was a reminder of how little of the citys
abundant past is left. But walk around the Brit bit of the city, Park
Street , Free School Street , Sudder Street , New Market, and you also
get a sense of why Calcutta is a city of second chances. Faded glory,
yes. But failures are welcome to take another shot The waiter looks
shocked for only a moment. Of course, Flurys couldnt stay shut, he
explains, his gravely courteous manner returning. The old tea-room has
been forced into temporary quarters at the Park Hotel, where it
perches uncomfortably like an elderly lady forced to move in with a
brash nephew. Cramped for space, he begins to turn away to return to
the bustling cash register, but looks back to say, his eyes crinkling
above high, Anglo-Indian cheekbones: Holy Week, after all. The people
gotta have their hot cross buns, man. And, sure enough, a group of
schoolchildren is standing at the counter sampling the sweet, slightly
spicy rolls eaten during the week leading up to Good Friday. When
100-year-old Stephen Court on Park Street burst into flames last week,
more than just Flurys routine was disrupted. The dozens of fatalities
reminded Indians that complacency and neglect has turned heritage
buildings into deathtraps; but, for Calcuttans, it triggered a moment
of near-panic. The sight of a devastating fire in the very heart of
its faded glory, Park Street, focused attention on what little of its
abundant past is left. The gawkers staring at the charred remnants of
the buildings top floors kept on looking around too, at Stephen Courts
graceful sisters, as if seeing them for the first time in years.

Because, unlike what a hundred guidebooks will tell you, walking down
Park Street is not like stepping into the past. The brands, the
bustle, the chain stores, are like anywhere else in India . But look
behind the illuminated shop signs, and you do indeed see the painted
signs of British Calcutta; look above the hoardings, and youll see the
elegant balconies and window-boxes of the shaheb para. Step into one
of the many faded auction houses and youre instantly surrounded by
crystal, carved teak furniture, giant busts of Athena, as if some
Victorian volcano has suddenly erupted around you, each piece sitting
with the quiet dignity of someone who remembers Park Street when
everyone east of Aden envied you for being there.

Manu Lilaram is one of those people. On a stool in his shop in New
Market, dressed in striped shirt and suspenders, he looks more than a
little exhausted; his house in Stephen Court , where he has lived for
decades, is still inaccessible. Worse: he is dealing, internally, with
no longer living on Park Street , another refugee from what was once
the most cosmopolitan square mile in Asia . Stephen Courts owner, he
remembers, was an Armenian, Arathoon Stephen. Flurys and Trincas were
run by friends from Switzerland . Down the road, Anglo-Indians
gathered every Saturday night at the Grail Club. Ornate Chowringhee
Mansions next door was built by the Ezras; Jewish, from Baghdad , and
definitely eccentric, Sir David Ezra also ran a private zoo at his
home in Ezra Mansions on Kyd Street , a short walk away.

Uniformed liftmen, two to a lift, would stand and hold the doors open;
the big-windowed apartments would be swept twice, not once a
day. People would walk in the private gardens that lay behind the
buildings Gothic façades. All of that began to change in the 70s:
people emigrated, companies left, previously pristine staircases began
to feature paan stains.

Those who thought that they could hold out discovered they
couldnt. Most notoriously, the Bengal Club, which thought that
admitting Indians wasnt really necessary an assumption that caused
them to go gratifyingly bankrupt in 1971. Sadly that meant selling
their magnificent Chowringhee frontage, which became the monstrosity
that is the Chatterjee International Centre, Calcuttas tallest
building, and so shoddily built that it rained its ugly tiles down on
all passers-by for two decades dangerous but oddly satisfying in its
symbolism.

More remains of this heritage than youd think. Park Street was built
by Armenians; theres still an Armenian Club next door to Stephen Court
, in Queens Mansions. A few minutes away, on Free School Street , boys
in rugby uniforms stroll out of the Armenian College , which still
occupies the building where William Makepeace Thackeray was born. Turn
right on to Royd Street , and youre suddenly surrounded by laughing
schoolgirls; Jewish Girls School has finished its working day. (In
another only-in-Calcutta cosmopolitan twist, the girl humming an old
Hebrew folk song as she walks home, a pink star-of-David embroidered
on her tunic, is almost certainly Muslim.) But everywhere is the
threat of dissolution: look up, and looming over you is the
still-decrepit fourth wing of Park Mansions, the old teak staircase of
which caught fire in 1988, destroying among others Calcuttas Alliance
Francaise and its old, extensive library which, instead of President
Mitterands official portrait, used to be dominated by a giant painting
of Napoleon, perhaps because it was, after all, in Calcutta, the city
of all our yesterdays.

But what is lost to fire can never compare to what is inevitably lost
to unprofitability. The great department stores the Army and Navy,
Whiteway-Laidlaw, Hall and Anderson went first, their huge, ornate,
Chowringhee buildings falling into disrepair or taken over by
banks. The building from which Hall and Anderson could once ship
bathtubs to those stranded in mofussil towns still has their name up
in lights that havent been turned on for decades; in it, now, the Bank
of Rajasthan promises loans for weddings, and Warren Travels
advertises package tours to Marwar. Then the smaller enterprises went:
the Great Eastern Stores are only recognisable by a little notice
asserting ownership of a spanking-new Adidas showroom.

In some cases, only the names are the same: Castlewood, where once you
went to get your golf balls and tennis racquets, now mainly sells
treadmills; Austin distributors now push Korean cars; the furrier
Alijoo, from 1871, sells carpets. But elsewhere, just enough has been
passed on. At Barkat Ali, for example, set up in 1924, the master
tailor will insist your suit shirt has proper, cufflink-sporting
cuffs. At tiny Kalmans on Free School Street , owner Bishnupada Dhar
learnt the cold-cuts trade from the tiny charcuteries founder,
Hungarian Kalman Kohary. Everyone is in buying sausages for Easter, he
says in Bengali, waving a cleaver in the general direction of his
giant freezer.

And some have become inseparable from the idea of Calcutta . In the
1950s, the Olympia Bar was raffishly disreputable, a place where my
mothers generation would not have gone, according to Ayesha Das, who
moved into Queens Mansions opposite it in 1952 (The building, already
old, was named for the new queen during the coronation hysteria that
gripped the city that year, five years after Independence). But the
place where a young Das had chips and ice cream has become Old Oly,
the pivot of Park Street, a temple to beer and beefsteak, with formica
tables and threadbare sofas, rats that are named and waiters that are
nameless. The guitarist at the table next to yours will have just come
from Braganzas on Marquis Street, a ten-minute-walk away, where
Anthony Braganza, drumming his fingers on the counter, will tell you
the business is going strong nobody wants acoustic any more, but thats
OK, they survived the shift from sheet music, they will survive many
more, music isnt going anywhere. On his desk lie little watermarked
envelopes of rental bills, addressed to families throughout Calcuttas
oldest buildings, in which his two hundred antique pianos lie up dusty
flights of wooden stairs in drawing rooms stuffed with dark furniture,
where they are passed down from child to child within the family as
each learns Chopsticks and Fur Elise.

Strangely enough, it is in famously anti-capitalist Calcutta , more
than anywhere else in India , that the citys soul can be found in
commerce, in shops and businesses that have survived the difficult
decades. Though perhaps it isnt that unlikely after all, it isnt the
easiest place to start anything either. Those who remember Park Street
in the 50s remember a Tibetan girl with a red blanket outside
A.N. John, the barbers, who would produce from a battered tin box
blanket jewellery that looked startlingly different from what the
shops were selling. That girls daughter, who now sits behind the
counter at Chambalama, the shop in New Market that eventually replaced
the tin trunk, says her mother would recall maharajas stopping their
Bentleys to buy; following the British up to Darjeeling in summer, and
coming back for the season, in winter; actress Suchitra Sen buying an
oxidised silver necklace from the trunk which she then wore to an
awards show in Bombay.

Sometimes, it feels as if everything new in this square mile is
actually old. Like New Empire, once owned by the Ranas of Nepal, a
teak and cut-glass museum inside: which other cinema hall is left
where one can order a whisky-and-soda in the interval?

Like New Market itself. The Boer War gun that sat in its central
crossroads may have disappeared, but Nahoums is still there, if minus
the Italian plaster-of-paris ceiling, as frothy as anything theyve
done with icing. The brownies are smaller, the service terrible now
that old David Nahoum doesnt come in any more; but the fudge and cakes
taste almost the same as they did. Unique in the world, surely, that a
Jewish family bakery is central to a citys Christmases. David might
be the third and last generation of his family to run it though: when
asked about the younger ones he would shrug, and look sadly at the El
Al wall calendar, as if resenting the airline that took them away.

Then there are those that went away. Firpos, with its formal-dress
dances, the location of a memorable scene in Vikram Seths A Suitable
Boy, which few in Calcutta can locate. (Dont miss it at all, said one
music-loving old-timer. The place was a barn. Terrible acoustics.) And
the Sky Room, with a deep-blue ceiling and silver plates, and where
the austere excellence of the service and the food made up for the
lack music or alcohol. (The orange juice cost ten rupees in 1955.) For
years after they shut shop in 1993, the most sought-after people in
the town were their chefs. Everyone claimed to have given them a
chance to keep creating: the Park Hotel, Mocambo next door, a carpet
exporter near Vivekananda Park .

Calcutta is, after all, the city of second chances. Failure doesnt
close off options: companies never shut down in Bengal , do they? Look
up across the street from New Market, and youll see St. Judes Academy
, named for the Roman Catholic patron saint of lost causes, which
proudly advertises it takes failures. The Metropolitan Building , old
home of Whiteway-Laidlaw, was almost condemned and demolished a few
years ago; but today, once again, the middle class flocks there, to a
brand new Big Bazaar. And the Bengal Club, bankrupt once, now gleams
with brass planters and wood panelling, defiantly insisting that
nothing has changed but the ethnicity of the club board. Those who
have stopped by Stephen Court , pausing to stare at its charred
corridors, will be hoping that this spirit of renewal will not pass it
by.

President Serzh Sargsyan Met With The Special Envoy Of The Turkish P

PRESIDENT SERZH SARGSYAN MET WITH THE SPECIAL ENVOY OF THE TURKISH PRIME MINISTER

president.am
April 8 2010
Armenia

Today, at the request of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President Serzh
Sargsyan met with the Special Envoy of the Turkish Prime Minister
Feridun Sinirlioglu.

Mr. Sinirliogly handed to the President of Armenia a letter the Prime
Minister and special messages from the President and the Minister of
Foreign Affairs of Turkey.

President Sargsyan said that Armenia expects Turkey to undertake
practical steps which would guarantee unambiguous advancement in the
establishment of bilateral relations without preconditions.

Special Envoy Feridun Sinirlioglu also conveyed to the President of
Armenia assurances of the readiness of the Turkish side to work for
progress in normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations.

Feridun Sinirlioglu communicated Prime Minister Erdogan’s request for
a bilateral meeting with Serzh Sargsyan during his visit to Washington.

Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap

x.cfm?fa=view&id=40566
Friday, April 8, 2010
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap
by Thomas de Waal

The current crisis between Armenia and Turkey will likely reach a head
by April 24, the date commemorated as Armenian Genocide Day. While
there is virtually no hope that the 2009 Armenian-Turkish Protocols
will be ratified soon, both parties should take small steps to rebuild
confidence and affirm their faith in the process.

If ratified, the Protocols would open the closed Armenia-Turkey
border, promising Armenia long-term economic transformation and an end
to its regional isolation. For Turkey, ratifying the protocols gives
it a new role in the Caucasus and is a major step toward ending the
humiliation of foreign parliaments passing genocide resolutions
condemning Turkey.

Key Conclusions:

* Turkey, which has dragged its feet this year, needs to make
goodwill gestures toward Armenia to keep the process alive. Steps
could include opening the border for noncommercial travelers near the
ancient city of Ani to allow Armenian tourists to visit the site
inside Turkey.

* The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorny Karabakh remains
the deepest problem facing the South Caucasus, and for the Turkish
government, the major obstacle to ratifying the Protocols. Although
Armenian-Turkish normalization is negatively affecting the Karabakh
peace process in the short term, in the long run it has the potential
to change the dynamics of the region and help the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict.

* Negotiations over Nagorny Karabakh are stalled. Mediators should
not push the parties too hard on status issues, but instead focus on
other areas that will underpin a final agreement, such as Track II
talks and economic development and reconstruction plans.

* The Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan offers a `win-win’
opportunity in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. If Armenia agrees to
open up communications with the enclave in tandem with the opening of
the Armenia-Turkey border, all sides could claim success.

On April 24, President Obama should move beyond the annual debate over
the word genocide and look ahead to the centenary of the tragedy in
2015 by encouraging the Turks to take part in commemorating the
occasion.
`The Turkey-Armenia process was the most positive initiative in the
South Caucasus in years and still has the potential to transform the
region. If the process is to get back on track, all involved parties,
including the United States, should articulate a strategic vision for
the region, and for resolution of the Karabakh conflict,’ writes de
Waal. `The centenary of the Armenian tragedy in 2015 is a good
reference point by which to set the goal of Armenian-Turkish
normalization.’

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/inde

Armenian Government Supports Organization Of Ice Hockey Championship

ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT SUPPORTS ORGANIZATION OF ICE HOCKEY CHAMPIONSHIP

PanARMENIAN.Net
April 8, 2010 – 14:33 AMT 09:33 GMT

During the April 8 session, the Armenian government approved a decision
on allocation of funds for organizing ice hockey division III adults’
championship in Yerevan from April 14 to 18.

Armenia’s Minister of Sport and Youth Affairs Arthur Petrosyan noted
that the final composition of Armenia’s ice hockey national team for
effective participation in the 2014 Olympic Games qualifiers will
depend on the competition results.

Levon Ter-Petrosyan: "Co-Chairs Of OSCE Minsk Group Came To Consensu

LEVON TER-PETROSYAN: "CO-CHAIRS OF OSCE MINSK GROUP CAME TO CONSENSUS TO HAND OVER FIVE REGIONS TO AZERBAIJAN"

APA
April 7 2010
Azerbaijan

Baku – APA. "Co-chairs of OSCE Minsk Group came to consensus to
hand over five regions to Azerbaijan", said Tuesday at a rally of
the opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) leader, the first
president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan, APA reports.

"By consensus, the co-chairs of the Minsk Group involve the immediate
transfer of the five regions of Azerbaijan," said Mr. Ter-Petrosyan,
noting that "for input after the peacekeeping force, determining
the status of the Lachin corridor and the status of Karabakh, says
nothing," but "the question of the interim status of Karabakh only
determines that the previously unrecognized government Karabakh will
be recognized. Armenia, in his words, "in response to its substantial
concessions received only baseless promises".

Ter-Petrosian also said that the situation in Armenia significantly
complicates the fact that Azerbaijan recognizes updated Madrid
principles. At the same time, Ter-Petrosyan said that the consensus on
the issue of putting five territories does not mean that the co-chair
countries have agreed to issue a final resolution of the Karabakh
conflict. To Ter-Petrosian, all further development in the Karabakh
issue depends on the position of President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan.

"Armenia faces a dilemma – to sign an agreement to the detriment of
the Armenian people or to win time that infuriates the international
community with all the consequences" – the former president said,
noting that "the president is likely to choose the signature".

Abdou Diouf: Armenia Completely Fulfills Its Commitments To OIF

ABDOU DIOUF: ARMENIA COMPLETELY FULFILLS ITS COMMITMENTS TO OIF

PanARMENIAN.Net –
April 7, 2010 – 13:56 AMT 08:56 GMT

Francophonie Day is internationally celebrated on March 20; Armenia
devoted a month to Francophonie.

As Mr. Abdou Diouf, the Secretary General of the International
Organization Francophonie, told a news conference in Yerevan, "Armenia
completely fulfills its obligations in its capacity of Francophonie
associated member."

Mr. Diouf said he is determined to visit Armenia again, together
with his spouse. "I came to know and love Armenia in the course of
my visit," he said.

Armenia became OIF associated member in 2008.

Francophonie is an international organization of polities and
governments with French as the mother or customary language, wherein
a significant proportion of people are francophones (French speakers)
or where there is a notable affiliation with the French language
or culture.

Formally known as the Organization internationale de la Francophonie
(OIF) or the International Organization of the Francophonie, the
organization comprises 56 member states and governments, 3 associate
members, and 14 observers. The primary mission of the organization
is the promotion of the French language as an international language
and the promotion of worldwide cultural and linguistic diversity in
the era of economic globalization.

BAKU: Baku Dismisses Armenian Leader’s Remarks

BAKU DISMISSES ARMENIAN LEADER’S REMARKS

news.az
April 5 2010
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has
criticized remarks on Karabakh made by the Armenian president in an
interview with Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine.

‘Azerbaijan has never refused to grant the Armenians and Azerbaijanis
of Nagono-Karabakh the right to self-determination according to
international legal norms within the framework of the territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan. Therefore, in this case it is important to
note that Azerbaijan has never shirked its obligations,’ Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry spokesman Elkhan Polukhov said today.

He was commenting on an interview given by Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan to Der Spiegel. Sargsyan said in the interview that the key
issue for a settlement of the Karabakh conflict was the right of the
people of Nagorno-Karabakh to self-determination.

The Armenian president asked in his interview why Karabakh could
not be independent when the former Yugoslavian states had achieved
independence. Commenting on that statement, Polukhov said that
Yugoslavia, like the USSR, had collapsed due to historical events
and pointed out that Armenia had gained its independence at that time.

‘It is at the very least, therefore, politically incorrect to draw
parallels between Azerbaijan and Yugoslavia,’ Polukhov said.

Asked whether Armenia could be said to have undone progress on Karabakh
through these comments, Polukhov said that if this were the case,
Baku would expect to hear the official Armenian position from the
OSCE Minsk Group mediators.

‘Only then will it be possible to give our view on the issue,’ the
spokesman noted.

Meanwhile, the Armenian president’s spokesman, Armen Arzumanyan,
told Tert.Am today that Der Spiegel had promised to correct what he
described as inaccuracies in the weekly’s published version of Serzh
Sargsyan’s interview.

As of 10.00 GMT on Monday the interview could not be found in German
or Russian on Der Spiegel’s website.

WeightLifting: Smbat Margaryan Vice Champion Of Europe

SMBAT MARGARYAN VICE CHAMPION OF EUROPE

Aysor
April 6 2010
Armenia

In Minsk in the capital city of Byelorussia kicked off the weight
lifting championship in Europe. The Armenian representative Smbat
Margaryan who is within the 56 kg w/c recorded 109 kg result in
picking up exercise, and in pushing exercise 146 kg. Smbat took the
title of the champion of Europe with the result of 255 kg. Till the
last second the 17 years old Armenian sportsmen was the leader. At the
end, however Byelorussian Vitali Derbenyov took a privilege over our
weightlifter with one kilo and received the title of the champion. If
Smbat would succeed the picking up exercise he would surely be out
of competing. He performed brilliantly in the other pushing exercise
and received a small golden medal.

However the career of the Armenian talented weightlifter is in the
future. It is obvious that his name in the future will be connected
with many victories.

Armenia Not To Export Apricots

ARMENIA NOT TO EXPORT APRICOTS

FreshPlaza
April 6 2010

Apricot crops in Armenia will be low due to the recent frost.

Chairman of the Armenian agrarian union Grach Berberyan said the
apricot crops in Armenia will be low due to the recent frost,
therefore, he says there will be no export of production.

Tert.am reports that the gathered crop will hardly meet the demands
of the internal market. He predicts the average price of a kilo of
apricots to make up 500 drams.

The frost damaged almost all apricot trees of Armavir. The damage in
Ararat made up 50%. Mostly mountainous regions where apricot trees
haven’t blossomed yet have benefited.

The official export of apricot from Armenia made up 8000 tons in 2009.

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http://www.freshplaza.com/news_detail.asp?i