Published March 28th, 2022 – 11:05 GMT
Past Relationships
Turkey was one of the first countries to recognize Armenia's independence, but differences between Yerevan and Ankara over issues such as borders, the 1921 Kars Treaty, and the 1993 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict virtually stalled relations.
Following the Nagorno-Karabakh war and the occupation of the territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan by Armenia, Turkey closed the land borders of the two countries, and the two sides' diplomatic or trade relations were severed. Efforts by the two neighboring governments to break the stalemate in relations began in 2010 with a process called football diplomacy. The two sides also signed protocols for the establishment of diplomatic relations, but there were significant internal, regional and international conflicts and challenges to the normalization of relations, which ultimately led to the failing normalization of the relations.
A new round of relationship normalization
For the first time since 2009, efforts have been made to revive relations between Turkey and Armenia in the past year. In August 2021, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan mentioned "positive public signals from Turkey" and his readiness to send a positive signal.
Therefore, after Armenia and Turkey announced their readiness to start talks between the two countries, they appointed special representatives for the talks. They then agreed in Moscow and Vienna to continue talks without preconditions with the aim of fully normalizing relations.
In this regard, during the first visit of a high-ranking Armenian official to Turkey in a decade, the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Turkey recently discussed in Antalya ways to normalize relations between Ankara and Yerevan.
Mutual motivations for normalizing the relationships
A set of geopolitical, political, economic, regional and international reasons are considered by Turkey and Armenia to reduce divergence and start the process of normalization of relations.
Armenia is a landlocked country between Georgia, Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan. Continued tensions with Turkey have led to the closure of much of the country's borders and its geopolitical isolation. Therefore, for the optimal use of the geopolitical and geoeconomic potentials of the country, normalization is necessary. With the end of the embargo on the import of Turkish goods, Armenia can reduce the smuggling of goods and boost trade through customs. Normalization and opening of borders can also increase exports to Turkey.
The geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus has changed since the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War. With Moscow not strongly supporting Yerevan in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh war, Armenia has strong political will to achieve full normalization of relations with Turkey and peaceful and sustainable development in the region. Therefore, in general, considers it positive.
In fact, Armenia is relying on public opinion polls to normalize relations with Turkey, while not wanting to be left out of regional energy and transportation projects. Normalization of relations with Turkey also promises to strengthen Armenia's hit economy and reduce its dependence on Russia. It is also expected that if Turkish-Armenian relations return to normal, there will be a greater chance for peace in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Turkey has broader reasons for reconciliation with Armenia. In recent years, Ankara has been isolated and sanctioned by the European Union and the US Congress, but a severe recession has prompted Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to contact former enemies such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
The normalization of relations with Armenia will also help Ankara improve its bad relations with the West, especially in the wake of President Biden's recognition of the Armenian genocide. Joe Biden has previously called on Erdogan to open the country's borders with Armenia. Therefore, Ankara's efforts to satisfy Washington and Brussels can be very useful for Turkey in various dimensions.
On the other hand, rebuilding relations between Turkey and Armenia could reduce Russia's influence in the South Caucasus and reduce Armenia's dependence on Iran, in Turkey's favor.
Turkey's new and more influential role in the South Caucasus, after its enormous assistance to Azerbaijan, could be in line with the normalizing relations with Armenia by reopening regional transit and trade routes. Ankara seeks stronger political unity of the Turkish republics. In the meantime, the normalization of relations can help in opening of the regional transport corridor through the territory of Armenia and the connection of Turkey with Azerbaijan.
Unlike in 2009, Azerbaijan "fully" supports the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia. As Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said: "Azerbaijan is pleased with the actions we are taking." In addition to these efforts, the establishment of "unconditional" diplomatic relations could lead to the reopening of the joint Turkish-Armenian border for wider trade in Turkey's dire economic situation.
Also, while most opposition parties, even the MHP in Turkey, are in favor of repairing relations with Armenia, the normalization process has a better chance. The two countries can benefit from restarting regular flights. The opening of the borders will also have a positive effect on the communication of the people, the reduction of tensions and historical differences, and the transition from the Turkish-Armenian divide.
Obstacles to normalization of relations:
Positive signals continue to normalize relations, with the highest level reached between the two countries in the past 12 years, but several factors have raised concerns about a repeat of the past.
Armenia suffered a bitter defeat in the war with the Azerbaijani army, which was provided, trained and supported by Turkey.
The Pashinyan government has faced public criticism since the recent Nagorno-Karabakh war. Public opinion, nationalists, the Armenian opposition, and parliamentary opposition factions in Armenia are fiercely critical of the negotiation process and are concerned about the cost of resolving disputes.
Negative views, historical background of at least a hundred years since the First World War have negatively affected the mentality of the people of the two countries.
In addition to the unresolved issues regarding the political situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azerbaijan-Nakhchivan-Turkey corridor project, and the close relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan based on the "one nation, two states" and Conflict on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border as of January 2022 model may block the negotiations again.
The massacre of Armenians in the Armenian version is completely different from the version of the Turkish government. In the official version of the Turkish government, the claim of massacre and extermination of all Armenian deportees is far from the historical and objective facts and it does not describe the events of 1915 as "genocide".
The denial of the Armenian genocide has had a profound effect on both nations and their relations. Armenians' diaspora (with more than 7 million people in more than 100 countries) are highly influential in making demands and putting pressure on the Turkish government.
They are trying to recognize genocide. However, Turkey is also pursuing easing pressure for international recognition of the Armenian genocide and explicit recognition of the current borders between Armenia and Turkey. But in the Armenian diaspora, the normalization of relations regardless of their demands is a betrayal of the history and nation of Armenia, and the need for both sides to respect each other's territorial integrity means putting away the "Western Armenia" and the idea of a Greater Armenia to Armenians.
Although Russia has emphasized on its support for diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey, Moscow does not want the future to be to the detriment of its peacekeepers and its geopolitical role in the region and Armenia. Also, any normalization process should not be against Iran's geopolitical and economic interests.
vision
So far, the Armenian and Turkish governments have taken a pragmatic approach to normalizing relations, and the issue of genocide is not on the agenda as it was in 2009. In fact, the goals and motives of Turkey and Armenia can overcome historical differences. Also, the process of bilateral normalization of Armenia and Turkey is not necessarily related to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, the legal consequences of genocide, etc., but removing the major obstacles to relations requires several steps.
At the same time, solving historical, legal, territorial problems, changing the direction and view of the people of the two countries is not easy and is not possible in the short term. But if marginal and historical preconditions are not met for normalization, the reopening of embassies and the opening of passages will be available in the short term.