Perspectives: Pakistan and India wage proxy struggle in Nagorno-Karabakh

EurasiaNet.org
Aug 17 2023
Svenja Petersen Aug 17, 2023

The India-Pakistan rivalry is most closely associated with the simmering conflict in Kashmir. Less known is the two countries’ deepening involvement in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Karabakh is emerging as an extension of the Kashmir conflict for the South Asian rivals, with both now supplying arms to the principal combatants – Armenia and Azerbaijan. While Pakistan has been siding with Azerbaijan since the outbreak of the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s, India entered the picture as an arms purveyor to Armenia only after Yerevan’s crushing defeat in the Second Karabakh War in 2020. 

Pakistani support for Azerbaijan is intertwined with Islamabad’s close strategic relationship with Turkey, Baku’s primary patron. The Pakistani government was second after Turkey in recognizing Azerbaijan’s independence following the Soviet collapse in 1991, and Islamabad has never acknowledged Armenia’s independence. The Pakistani and Azerbaijani militaries have reportedly been conducting joint exercises since 2016 and maintain extensive strategic security contacts. Although officially unconfirmed, Pakistani military advisers reportedlyparticipated in the Second Karabakh War, providing tactical advice on operations in Karabakh’s highlands. Some observers believe Islamabad may sell Pakistani- and Chinese-designed JF-17 fighter jets to Azerbaijan. 

India’s support for Armenia shifted into high gear in the fall of 2022 with the provision of $245 million worth of Indian artillery systems, anti-tank rockets and ammunition. In May, Yerevan announced it was adding a military attaché to its embassy in New Delhi, tasked with deepening bilateral military cooperation. 

Increased Indian support may prove crucial for Armenia as it strives to counter Azerbaijan’s strategic pressure in Karabakh. Yerevan’s traditional strategic partner, Russia, is bogged down by its disastrous invasion of Ukraine, and now appears to lack the resources and the will to play a major role in fostering a durable Karabakh settlement. The hope in Yerevan is that Indian assistance can help Armenia offset the support that Azerbaijan receives from Turkey, Pakistan and Israel.

Pakistan’s involvement in the Karabakh conflict is helping cement an Ankara-Baku-Islamabad alliance, informally dubbed the “Three Brothers.” The three states are all nominally democracies that have drifted to varying degrees from a pluralistic path, and which likewise have predominantly Muslim populations. The fact that all three are engaged in territorial/ethnic conflicts also acts as a binding agent, encouraging them to assist each other strategically and diplomatically. Reports circulated in early August that Pakistan may soon join Azerbaijan as a partner in a Turkish-led effort to develop a new-generation stealth fighter, dubbed Kaan. 

India’s decision to get involved in the Karabakh conflict is driven by two factors – one strategic, the other economic; the country’s own complicated history with Islam also plays a role. Azerbaijan’s victory in 2020 set off alarms in New Delhi by upending what New Delhi perceived to be a geostrategic balance in the Caucasus. Wary of rising Turkish-Muslim influence there, Indian leaders felt they had to step up cooperation with Armenia, which they hope can once again act as a countervailing regional force. This tendency to side with a non-Muslim party of a local conflict is also seen in India’s support for Israel, Serbia and Myanmar.

The overriding concern in New Delhi is that if Azerbaijan achieves its strategic goals in Karabakh, the Ankara-Baku-Islamabad grouping may concentrate its energies on Kashmir. Indian support for Armenia, then, can be interpreted as a forward-defense tactic to keep Pakistan in check in Kashmir. India’s involvement in Karabakh is also encouraging closer ties between New Delhi and Iran, which likewise has strong relations with Armenia rooted in a desire to diminish Turkish and Azerbaijani influence in the Caspian Basin. 

India also sees Armenia as a potential economic opportunity. New Delhi hopes it can profit from being an arms supplier, filling a gap left by Russia’s strategic downsizing in the Caucasus. New Delhi’s ambitions, however, are complicated by the fact India itself is a heavy importer of Russian arms: roughly three-quarters of its military equipment comes from Russia. And Moscow is becoming increasingly hard-pressed to fulfill export orders, as it struggles to replace battlefield losses in Ukraine. The Indian arms industry will thus be challenged to meet the country’s own growing needs while supplying Armenia too.

On the ground, India is quickly finding itself drawn into the Karabakh conflict’s propaganda dimension. In late June, an Azerbaijani news outlet published a report claiming that Indians were being recruited to fight as mercenaries in Karabakh. A commentary published July 5 by the Indian newspaper The Statesman described the Azerbaijani report as a “cock-and-bull story” cooked up by Pakistan’s ISI intelligence agency.

While it’s too early to say how growing Pakistani and Indian involvement will shape further developments in Karabakh, the new geopolitical configuration is indicative of the declining influence of traditional power brokers, such as the OSCE, NATO and CSTO. India and Pakistan are proving in Karabakh that geopolitics is moving in a multi-polar direction.

Svenja Petersen is a Berlin-based political economist and researcher focusing on the former Soviet Union.

The Potential Starvation of Civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh This Winter is a Matter of Concern

Aug 11 2023

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is challenging the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh to either accept Azerbaijan’s political control or leave the region. However, Armenian leaders argue that this amounts to genocide, and many residents are willing to starve rather than submit.

Aliyev made his stance clear in an interview with Euronews, stating that the people living in Karabakh are citizens of Azerbaijan and must choose to live as an ethnic minority or leave the region.

In an attempt to assert sovereignty, Azerbaijan has blockaded the road connecting Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh since June 15. This blockade has cut off the Armenian population from essential supplies like food, fuel, and medicine. While Azerbaijan claims they are willing to provide food, Armenians fear it could be a trap to force integration, and they have blocked Azerbaijani entry routes.

Arayik Harutyunyan, the president of Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as “Artsakh,” has appealed for international support against what he calls a genocidal policy by Azerbaijan. He has requested a meeting of the U.N. Security Council.

The U.S. State Department, along with European partners and Russia, is working to reopen the Lachin Corridor and end the humanitarian crisis. The growing international concern for the welfare of Nagorno-Karabakh’s residents has prompted a report by former International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo, stating that there is a reasonable basis to believe a genocide is being committed.

U.S. officials are worried that the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh is only surviving through backyard gardens and home-produced food. With winter approaching, they fear that within two months, the population could face starvation. Armenians are haunted by the memory of the Ottoman genocide of 1915.

The blockade of fuel supplies has already had a devastating impact on Nagorno-Karabakh. Even ambulance vehicles are unable to operate due to the lack of fuel.

The crisis surrounding the Lachin Corridor is the latest development in the long-standing struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh. While Armenia gained control in 1994, skirmishes continued for the following 25 years. Azerbaijan regained power in a 2020 war, brokered by Russia. However, Russia’s ability to maintain peace and stability has been weakened due to the conflict in Ukraine.

The Armenian government has expressed readiness for a broad peace agreement with Azerbaijan, but the diplomatic process has been disrupted by the Lachin crisis. Yerevan seeks international guarantees that a peace deal will be fully implemented and ensure the rights and security of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Lachin crisis highlights the core issue at hand. While Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan, the Armenian majority in the region desires political self-determination rather than being dictated by a hostile government in Baku. Trust needs to be built by Azerbaijan through ending the Lachin blockade that initiated this crisis.

When visiting Stepanakert, the de facto capital of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2016, a monument called “We Are Our Mountains” symbolized the spirit of resistance that Baku wants to break. The message is clear: the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh will not be moved. It is crucial for all parties involved to recognize the rights and protection of ethnic Armenians in the region.

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https://vigourtimes.com/the-potential-starvation-of-civilians-in-nagorno-karabakh-this-winter-is-a-matter-of-concern/

RFE/RL Armenian Service – 08/10/2023

                                        Wednesday, 


Armenia, Iran Extend Energy Swap Deal


Representatives of Iran and Armenia sign an agreement extending an energy swap 
scheme between the two countries until 2030. Yerevan, .


Armenia and Iran on Thursday signed an agreement to extend the term of the 
“natural gas for electricity” program by four years and increase its volumes.

The new agreement was signed at Armenia’s Ministry of Territorial Administration 
and Infrastructure between Aram Ghazarian, Director General of Yerevan’s Thermal 
Power Plant, and Majid Chegeni, Deputy Minister of Oil of Iran and Director of 
the Islamic Republic’s National Gas Company.

Armenian Minister of Economic and Technological Development Gnel Sanosian 
congratulated the parties on the extension of the agreement, emphasizing that it 
is “one of the best manifestations of Armenian-Iranian friendly relations.”

“The extension of the agreement is a profitable deal for both countries. With 
the extension of this agreement it is possible to increase gas imports and 
electricity exports, which will definitely have a positive effect on the 
economic development of both countries,” he said, according to an official press 
release.

Chegeni, in his turn, reportedly stressed that the new agreement will “give a 
new impetus to the development of Armenian-Iranian relations.”

Since 2009, Armenia has been importing natural gas from Iran and turning it into 
electricity at a local thermal power plant, supplying it back to Iran. The 
surplus of electricity obtained from one cubic meter of natural gas has remained 
in Armenia.

Under this scheme, the term of the agreement was to expire in 2026. With the 
agreement signed today, the period has been extended until 2030. However, 
specific figures regarding the volumes of supplies are not mentioned in official 
reports.




Oskanian Urges Armenian PM To Renounce Prague Statement

        • Ruzanna Stepanian

Former Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian (file photo).


Former Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian has called on Prime Minister 
Nikol Pashinian to withdraw from the statement made in Prague last year, by 
which Baku and Yerevan recognized each other’s territorial integrity and 
sovereignty based on the declaration signed in Almaty in 1991.

In a new video on Facebook Oskanian claimed that this statement is one of the 
main causes of the closure of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijan that has put 
Karabakh Armenians “on the brink of starvation.”

“Pashinian made a big mistake. Pashinian must admit he made that mistake and 
correct it. Today he has the opportunity to retract that statement, just based 
on today’s situation. He can clearly say that ‘I’ve tried something, but I see 
that our opponent is abusing it, so I retract that statement, and today I have 
the right to do that’,” Oskanian said.

The former foreign minister said he believes that the Prague statement made 
following Pashinian’s quadrilateral meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham 
Aliyev, French President Emmanuel Macron and President of the European Council 
Charles Michel on October 6 last year “has become a serious obstacle, because no 
one can do anything to unblock the corridor.”

“Russia has already openly said it. Citing the Prague statement and Pashinian’s 
signature under it that has significantly changed the entire essence of the 
November 9, [2020 trilateral] statement, Russia says that today it cannot do 
anything and it says it openly. The West doesn’t say it openly, but it says the 
same in private meetings,” Oskanian said.

Without giving names Oskanian also claimed that “many people abroad are doing 
serious work, both at the governmental and legislative levels, trying to change 
the content of the negotiations, but they are facing the same wall.”

“They are told that the government of Armenia has a different approach… and that 
they should rather work with their own [Armenian] government,” the former 
Armenian diplomat said.

“Believe me, if there is a change in the attitude of the Armenian government 
today, the attitude of the international community will change dramatically, 
too,” Oskanian said.

Oskanian suggested that today it is still possible for Pashinian to go back on 
his statement without provoking a war, while today’s situation, in the former 
foreign minister’s view, only increases the possibility of war. “Because 
Pashinian has made a lot of promises to Azerbaijan, but the signing of the 
document stalls,” he said.

“I think that it will not be easy for Pashinian to sign such a document, because 
its content has nothing to do with the interests of the Armenian people. 
Naturally, this can be dragged out, and this is where the danger lies, and 
believe me, the mediators will not be able to do anything here, because all the 
time you promise something to your opponent, which you do not fulfill. That’s 
why I’m just asking, I’m begging, that we change the approach, the narrative of 
today’s negotiations as it contains a serious danger, and the possibility for 
doing that really exists today,” Oskanian concluded.

Pashinian has repeatedly supported mutual recognition of territorial integrity 
by Armenia and Azerbaijan as a way to move forward in hammering out a peace 
agreement between the two South Caucasus nations. In his several public remarks 
he said that Armenia was ready to recognize Azerbaijan’s Soviet-era borders if 
Baku does the same in respect with the Armenian borders that existed during the 
Soviet times. While this means also recognizing Nagorno-Karabakh within the 
borders of Azerbaijan, the Pashinian government has insisted that an 
internationally visible dialogue take place between Baku and Stepanakert on the 
rights and security of Karabakh Armenians.

Earlier, Pashinian and members of his political teams also dismissed Oskanian’s 
offer to lead diplomatic efforts on changing the course of the current 
negotiations with Azerbaijan. In a recent speech in parliament Pashinian, in 
particular, suggested that all of the steps publically proposed by the former 
foreign minister to be taken to raise the issue of at least an autonomous status 
for Nagorno-Karabakh have actually been taken by the current administration.




Azerbaijan Dismisses Opinion By Top International Lawyer On ‘Genocide Against 
Armenians’ In Karabakh


Hikmet Hajiyev, a foreign policy advisor to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev 
(file photo)


A senior official in Baku has rejected as biased a report by a leading expert on 
international criminal law who described the ongoing blockade of 
Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan as a genocide.

Hikmet Hajiyev, a foreign policy advisor to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, 
said on Thursday that the report released by the founding prosecutor of the 
International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno Ocampo, earlier this week “contains 
unsubstantiated allegations and accusations.”

In his 28-page expert opinion requested by Arayik Harutiunian, the ethnic 
Armenian leader of Nagorno-Karabakh, Ocampo, an Argentine lawyer who served at 
the Hague court in 2003-2012, assessed whether the current siege of 
Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan implemented by blocking the only road of supply 
from Armenia and resulting in a dramatically worsening humanitarian situation in 
the region amounts to the crime of genocide.

In the document that he released from New York on August 7 Ocampo gives a 
straightforward answer, stating that “there is an ongoing Genocide against 
120,000 Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh.”

Luis Moreno Ocampo

The 71-year-old lawyer who successfully prosecuted for crimes against humanity 
three heads of state, including the president of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir, says 
that “the blockade of the Lachin Corridor by the Azerbaijani security forces 
impeding access to any food, medical supplies, and other essentials should be 
considered a Genocide under Article II, (c) of the Genocide Convention: 
‘Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring 
about its physical destruction.’”

“There are no crematories, and there are no machete attacks. Starvation is the 
invisible Genocide weapon. Without immediate dramatic change, this group of 
Armenians will be destroyed in a few weeks. Starvation as a method to destroy 
people was neglected by the entire international community when it was used 
against Armenians in 1915, Jews and Poles in 1939, Russians in Leningrad (now 
Saint Petersburg) in 1941, and Cambodians in 1975/1976. Starvation was also 
neglected when used in Srebrenica in the winter of 1993/1994,” Ocampo writes.

In his expert opinion Ocampo also refers to the analysis of the Lachin corridor 
blockade given by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at Armenia’s request.

Still in February the United Nations’ top court ordered Azerbaijan to restore 
“unimpeded” traffic through the sole road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to 
Armenia. It reaffirmed its position in July, a few weeks after Baku only 
tightened the de facto blockade by prohibiting all kinds of cargoes coming to 
the region.

Ocampo further maintains that “there is reasonable basis to believe that 
President Aliyev has Genocidal intentions.” “He has knowingly, willingly and 
voluntarily blockaded the Lachin Corridor even after having been placed on 
notice regarding the consequences of his actions by the ICJ’s provisional 
orders,” the founding prosecutor of the International Criminal Court concludes.

Meanwhile, in rejecting the Ocampo report, Hajiyev, according to Azerbaijani 
media, said: “It is biased and distorts the real situation on the ground and 
represents serious factual, legal and substantive errors.” Aliyev’s aide did not 
elaborate.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s leader Harutiunian on August 8 issued an urgent appeal to the 
international community, asking for immediate action to lift the blockade 
imposed by Azerbaijan and prevent what he called “the genocide of the people of 
Nagorno-Karabakh.”

Meanwhile, in a post on Twitter today Armenia’s Ambassador-at-Large Edmon 
Marukian wrote that Ocampo’s is “a solid report with facts and analyses, which 
may become a future indictment against the Azerbaijani leadership.”

Officials in Baku deny blockading Nagorno-Karabakh, saying that humanitarian 
supplies to the region could also be implemented through the Azeri-controlled 
town of Agdam, which is situated to the east of the region and is away from 
Armenia.

Despite severe shortages of food, medicines, fuel and other essentials in the 
region ethnic Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh reject that offer, 
fearing that it could be a prelude to the absorption of what remains of the 
former autonomous oblast into Azerbaijan.

Authorities in both Yerevan and Stepanakert consider the Azerbaijani checkpoint 
at the Lachin corridor illegal as they insist its violates a Moscow-brokered 
2020 ceasefire agreement that places the vital route under the control of 
Russian peacekeepers.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh for 
decades. Some 30,000 people were killed in a war in the early 1990s that left 
ethnic Armenians in control of the predominantly Armenian-populated region and 
seven adjacent districts of Azerbaijan proper.

Decades of internationally mediated talks failed to result in a diplomatic 
solution and the simmering conflict led to another war in 2020 in which nearly 
7,000 soldiers were killed on both sides.

The 44-day war in which Azerbaijan regained all of the Armenian-controlled areas 
outside of Nagorno-Karabakh as well as chunks of territory inside the Soviet-era 
autonomous oblast proper ended with a Russia-brokered ceasefire under which 
Moscow deployed about 2,000 troops to the region to serve as peacekeepers.

Tensions along the restive Armenian-Azerbaijani border and around 
Nagorno-Karabakh leading to sporadic fighting and loss of life have persisted 
despite the ceasefire and publicly stated willingness of the leaders of both 
countries to work towards a negotiated peace.





Heat Wave Hits Armenian Capital, Ararat Valley

        • Robert Zargarian

A view of Mount Ararat and the Ararat Plain from the center of Yerevan (file 
photo).


Armenians are coping with a heat wave coming from the south as air temperatures 
in parts of the country are rising to extremely high levels this week.

According to a weather forecast, lower areas of Yerevan and the rest of the 
Ararat Valley in which they are situated as well as foothills of Armenia’s 
southern Syunik province will see air temperatures of up to 42 degrees Celsius 
in the period from August 10 to 14.

Meteorologists say the heat wave is coming from the Arabian Peninsula and along 
with sweltering weather bring in its wake higher-than-normal levels of 
ultraviolet radiation.

Health experts, meanwhile, advise staying hydrated and avoiding being in the sun 
during the day.

“We recommend reducing caffeine-containing drinks and beverages, both hot and 
cold, as much as possible, because even though they have a short-term refreshing 
effect, they exhaust the body, and sugar-containing drinks make them heavier and 
dehydrated,” said Nune Bakunts, deputy director of the National Disease 
Prevention Center.

She also recommends that people stay in the shade as much as possible whenever 
it is absolutely necessary to be outside during the day and that they wear a hat 
and sunglasses. According to the specialist, oily and hard-to-digest foods 
should also be avoided or at least consumed during the coolest hours of the day, 
while preference should be given to vegetables and easy-to-digest food taken in 
small portions.

Emergency services, meanwhile, warn that risks of fires also increase due to 
high air temperatures and a prolonged period of dry weather. They caution 
against starting fires in forests or throwing away burning matches or cigarettes.

According to weather forecasts, air temperatures in Yerevan and the rest of 
Armenia will go down a little after August 14 but are likely to stay relatively 
high for the rest of the month.


Reposted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2023 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.
1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.

 

Glendale Artsakh Farmer’s Market Presents ‘Armenian Rhythms Reimagined’

Aug 8 2023

The Glendale Artsakh Farmer’s Market is paying homage to Armenian culture and giving back with “Armenian Rhythms Reimagined,” featuring DJ Lara Sarkissian on Sunday, Aug. 6, from noon to 2 p.m. at 222 E. Howard St.
The Glendale Artsakh Farmer’s Market, an all-Armenian owned vendor marketplace, is partnering with the nonprofit “Hayk for our Heroes” to donate a portion of the monthly proceeds to projects in Armenia and victims of war. Every week, the market features various performances to enhance the artisan shopping experience.
Sunday’s event will focus on raising awareness to the recent Artsakh blockade, while showcasing the vibrant Armenian culture.
Sarkissian is an electronic musician and broadcaster from San Francisco and is a resident on NTS Radio, a home for her narrative-style programs, showcasing dance and electronic music from around the globe and her Armenian music programming specials. In the past, she has DJ’d for BBC Radio, Tresor, Hyperdub, Unsound Festival, MoMA PS1, Roskilde Festival, Boiler Room broadcasts and more.
For Sarkissian’s Glendale Artsakh Farmer’s Market set, she will play a special mix of rare Armenian pop and dance classics, along with electronic, paying homage to her roots, celebrations and musical gatherings.
To RSVP, call (650) 580-1273 or email [email protected].

First published in the August 5 print issue of the Glendale News-Press.

https://glendalenewspress.outlooknewspapers.com/2023/08/08/glendale-artsakh-farmers-market-presents-armenian-rhythms-reimagined/

Fitch upgrades Armenia as war migrants add dynamism to economy

July 31 2023

By bne IntelIiNews July 31, 2023

An extraordinary influx of tens of thousands of migrants into Armenia since the start of the Ukraine conflict has added dynamism to the small nation’s economy, according to Fitch Ratings, which on July 28 upgraded the country to ‘BB’, with a stable outlook.

Said Fitch: “Armenia has had a strong rebound from successive shocks in recent years since its downgrade [to ‘B+’] in 2020, and Fitch expects this dynamism to continue in light of an extraordinary inflow of migrants.

“Since the start of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, an estimated 50,000-65,000 immigrants (equivalent to 2.2% of Armenia's pre-conflict population) from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus have settled in the country. This supported strong growth of 12.6% in 2022, and Fitch expects the economy to grow by 7.2% in 2023, 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025.”

In further comments on the impoverished South Caucasus country’s prospects, Fitch said: “Consumption will remain solid while the outlook for goods-and-services exports is also positive despite a strong appreciation of the Armenian dram, mainly due to a resurgence in tourism and re-exports to Russia. If current economic trends continue, Armenia's already favourable medium-term potential growth (estimated at 4.5%) could receive a further boost from expansion of the labour force and improvements in productivity. Fitch expects income per capita (at market exchange rates) to nearly double from 2021 levels by 2025.”

The ratings agency noted that Armenia’s debt was stabilising at a low level, observing that government debt/GDP fell sharply to 46.7% in 2022 from 60.2% in 2021 due mainly to currency appreciation, but also the strong nominal GDP rebound and fiscal consolidation. Fitch expects stabilisation at around 44.6% in 2023-25, below its pre-pandemic 2019 level of 53.7% and the current 'BB' median of 54.1%.

“The share of FX-denominated debt of 60.5% as of 1Q23 is above the 'BB' median of 55%, although this has declined from 71.2% at end-2021 due to sharp dram appreciation as well a shift to greater local borrowing,” said the ratings firm, adding: “Risks to debt dynamics are mitigated by the relatively large share of concessional debt, and the high proportion of fixed rate debt (84.1% as of May).”

Fitch added that it expected that robust nominal economic growth and higher spending would result in a moderate increase in the general government deficit (cash basis) to 2.5% of GDP, from 2.2% in 2022.

Armenia’s current account posted a surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2022 compared to a 2021 deficit of 3.7%. That, said Fitch, was a result of solid demand for services and goods exports and money transfers, including remittances. “We expect the current account to fall back into a deficit of 1.1% of GDP on average in 2023-2025 on strong domestic demand, but remain below historical averages in light of these positive factors. The stronger external position reduced net external debt to 24.6% of GDP in 2022 from 44.5% in 2021, and we expect a further decline to 16.1% of GDP by 2025, in line with peer medians. The external liquidity ratio is expected to peak at about 150% in 2024,” it added.

Fitch also pointed to some inherent risks from high reliance on the Russian market (49% of exports and 25% of imports in January-May), although in the short term, Armenia, it said, would benefit from the sharp increase in re-exports to the country that is occurring as a result of closure of other trade routes to Russia due to sanctions.

Fitch also assessed geopolitical risks to Armenia from its unresolved territorial dispute with Azerbaijan.

Those, risks, it said have increased since the start of the year, adding: “As of July, a seven-month long Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin Corridor in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region is ongoing, and there have been multiple deadly military clashes on the border. Peace talks between the two countries continue, but in our view, are unlikely to yield a lasting peace agreement in the absence of territorial adjustments that may be politically difficult for Armenia to accept.

“Fitch believes that in the event of a military conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, fighting will largely be limited to the disputed region, and broader macroeconomic implications for Armenia will be limited.”

Fitch also looked at how lower inflation and a strong currency were key rating drivers for Armenia, saying: “Sharp increases in money transfers and movement of migrants from Russia have contributed to a sustained strengthening of the dram since mid-2022. The strong dram and the easing of global commodity prices caused inflation to fall into negative territory in June (-0.5% yoy) from a peak of 8.1% in January-February.

“Core inflation is also declining, from an average of 8% in 1Q23 to 1.5% yoy in June, notwithstanding strong wage growth (18% yoy as of May 2023), reducing concerns over economic overheating. Fitch expects the dram to moderately depreciate in 2023-24, albeit still to levels stronger than before the start of the Ukraine conflict.”

In its assessment of Armenia’s stable, dollarised banking sector, the ratings agency said: “The Armenian banking sector has favourable profitability (return on equity of 18%), asset quality (non-performing loan ratio of 2.6%) and capitalisation (Tier 1 capital ratio of 18.7% as of May). Deposit dollarisation levels have been stable, at 52.3% as of May 2023, while loan dollarisation declined slightly to 34.8% as of May.

“There are signs of overheating in the property market, with residential property prices rising by an average of 10% yoy in 1H23, owing mainly to the heightened demand from the population surge. However, Fitch sees risks of a disorderly correction as relatively low, and any spill over on the broader economy will likely be limited, given strong household and corporate balance sheets. Banks have adequate dram and US dollar liquidity, and a destabilising outflow of deposits is not seen as likely.”

https://www.bne.eu/fitch-upgrades-armenia-as-war-migrants-add-dynamism-to-economy-286018/?source=armenia

UN Armenia office representatives visit entrance of blockaded Lachin Corridor

 15:44, 3 August 2023

YEREVAN, AUGUST 3, ARMENPRESS. The representatives of the UN office in Armenia visited on Thursday the border section of Kornidzor, the entrance of Lachin Corridor, where the convoy of trucks trying to transport humanitarian aid from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh remains blocked for the ninth day.

Video Player

On August 2, candy-producer Grand Candy sent two trucks loaded with confectionaries to join the 19 trucks of the convoy.

The representatives of the UN office in Armenia were briefed on the situation on the ground, after which Nanna Skau, acting resident coordinator of the UN in Armenia, gave a short press briefing, during which she first read the UN Secretary-General António Guterres' latest statement regarding the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh resulting from the blockade of the Lachin Corridor.

“Unfortunately, at this point I cannot go beyond the statement…,” Nanna Skau said.  “We do expect the statement issued will hopefully lead to some positive results,” she added.

Photos by Hovhannes Mkrtchyan

Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia and the rest of the world, has been blocked by Azerbaijan since late 2022. The Azerbaijani blockade constitutes a gross violation of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement, which established that the 5km-wide Lachin Corridor shall be under the control of Russian peacekeepers. Furthermore, on February 22, 2023 the United Nations’ highest court – the International Court of Justice (ICJ) – ordered Azerbaijan to “take all steps at its disposal” to ensure unimpeded movement of persons, vehicles and cargo along the Lachin Corridor in both directions.  Azerbaijan has been ignoring the order ever since. The ICJ reaffirmed its order on 6 July 2023.

Azerbaijan then illegally installed a checkpoint on Lachin Corridor. The blockade has led to shortages of essential products such as food and medication. Azerbaijan has also cut off gas and power supply into Nagorno-Karabakh, with officials warning that Baku seeks to commit ethnic cleansing against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Hospitals have suspended normal operations.

On July 25, the Government of Armenia said that it will try to send over 360 tons of flour, cooking oil, sugar, and other foodstuffs and medication to Nagorno-Karabakh to mitigate the humanitarian crisis resulting from the blockade of Lachin Corridor. Armenia requested the Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh to escort the aid but Azerbaijan has blocked the convoy at the entrance of the Lachin Corridor.

Intentional Starvation in East Could Ensnare West


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Demonstrators in support of Karabakh demanding the reopening of a blockaded
road linking the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia, and to decry crisis
conditions in the region, in Yerevan: July 25, 2023. Karabakh has been at
the centre of a decades-long dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which
have fought two wars. (Karen Minasyan/AFP via Getty Images)

By Brig Gen (ret) Blaine Holt Thursday, 27 July 2023 06:47 AM EDT ET Current
| Bio | Archive


Perceiving a threat to his power (1932-1933), then-Russian leader Joseph
Vissarionovich Stalin implemented policies in motion to bring agrarian
satellite state, Ukraine, to heel.

The Holodomor (Ukrainian: "Death by Hunger") was a man-made famine killing
millions of Ukrainians.

Stalin's message to the rest of the Soviet States and Russians was
chillingly clear.

Looking the other way is a key ingredient in mass murders.

As the peasants in the world's former breadbasket resorted to suicides and
cannibalism, as a result of the Russian Army enforced famine, Moscow-based
correspondents (mostly American) denied the horrors, refusing to consider
reporting on the genocide until it was far too late.

When pressed by fellow denier, Ralph Barnes of the Herald Tribune, The New
York Times' Walter Duranty would say, "What are a few million dead Russians
in a situation like this? Quite unimportant.

"This is just an incident in the sweeping historical changes here. I think
the entire matter is exaggerated."

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, there has been some form of war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In 2020, the Russians brokered a ceasefire with Armenia ceding five of seven
districts in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Russians have deployed so-called "peacekeepers" to the region since
then.

An uneasy ceasefire ensued for the Armenian population, that is, until
December of 2022.

(Additional/comparative background may be found here and here.)

That is when the Azeri's enacted an illegal blockade of the enclave,
inhibiting the flow of goods and people along the Lachin corridor, the
lifeline to greater Armenia.

Russia ignored the blockade along with most of Europe, while Azerbaijan
helped both, in re-labeling Russian gas as Azeri so Europe could skirt its
own sanctions on Russia.

In mid-June, the Azeri's did the unimaginable, tightening the noose,
blocking all food, energy and medical supplies from reaching the enclave.

Using the Russia-Ukraine War as convenient camouflage, Azeri President Ilham
Aliyev is taking a chapter from the Stalin playbook.

Where Stalin killed millions, Aliyev only need "eliminate" 120,000 (30,000
children) and potentially the enclave becomes Azerbaijan's.

The weakest are dropping.

Over this past weekend, a woman living in Nagorno-Karabakh we will call
"Anna," gave this writer a very dark account of the fate now befalling her
community.

Perhaps the state employed priest knew what was ahead when the blockade
began.

He announced to the people that he would pray for them to be blessed in
their next life.

How's that for an optimist? Anna's parents are diabetic.

If no medical resupply arrives, their medication will be exhausted in less
than 30 days.

Anna and her family are subsisting on some carrots, dandelions, and nettles.
One of her relatives walked 13 kilometers carting pounds of potatoes
delivering them to Anna and her parents.

Additionally, clean water is getting harder to come by.


Since there is no gas, getting out to the countryside to forage is near
impossible.

There are phases to a man-made famine. Anna and her folks are in the early
days of this.

Domestic animals are dying and left in the streets while the vulnerable,
elderly and children, are falling weak and ill.

When asked whether her people know what is going on between the, she
sorrowfully says, through malnourished, sunken eyes, "We can't think beyond
getting another piece of food or another cup of water; the one hour of TV
news we see every day repeats the message that we must hope for the best."

It is almost merciful that Anna and her people are spared the truth.

She might be broken were she to understand the palpable indifference to this
intentional genocide.

Even the U.S. Ambassador to Armenia had to recently walk back her tone deaf
comments in a July 3 interview where she said "the U.S. believes it is
possible to ensure the security of the people of Artsakh as part of
Azerbaijan."

Meanwhile at the edge of the sealed transit route, just kilometers from
those dying, the Armenian people continue to collect and stockpile, food and
medicine, hoping for diplomats to engage.

There was a day when we were better than this.

Does anyone remember how we turned the other cheek on a vanquished enemy and
saved 300,000 Germans in Berlin from starvation with our airlifters?

Where is U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken? Where is the mainstream
press? Where are the non-profit aid agencies?

Where is our compassion and care for humanity?

On Tuesday, President Aliyev went to Moscow to consult with Foreign Minister
Sergey Lavrov; at the same time the phones are ringing across
Nagorno-Karabakh telling residents they will have safe passage if they leave
now and walk to Armenia.

Is the grand compromise an ethnic cleansing versus a genocide?

If the global community doesn't care here, will it care when millions in
Africa have died due to a collapsed grain deal and missile strikes on over
60,000 tons of life-saving food?

Has human life become so cheap?

At the time of this writing, a deal was brokered in Brussels to move a
delivery of 400 tons of life saving food and medicine to the enclave only to
have the Azeris renege on the deal, stopping the aid at the border
checkpoint.

The siege continues - unabated. Meanwhile, medicines and food sit in the
backs of trucks as summer temperatures soar.

Before the State Department writes this off as another unsolvable problem,
let's remember how spread thin we are with wars and potential wars.

Turning our back's diplomatically to 120,000 being murdered in plain view
will come with significant consequences.

Their screams won't be silent. Think the Bosnian war of the 1990s.

Soon we may well be forced to listen to those screams, and get at their root
cause, whether we choose to or not.

Will we be prepared?

As long as the left holds sway over the rank swamp that is Washington, D.C.
don't count on it.

Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt (retired) is a co-founder of Restore Liberty, a
former deputy representative to NATO, a lifetime member on the Council on
Foreign Relations, and a Newsmax contributor. The views presented are those
of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. government,
U.S.Department of Defense, or its components. Read Gen. Holt's reports -
More Here.

Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt (retired) is a co-founder of Restore Liberty, a
former deputy representative to NATO, a lifetime member on the Council on
Foreign Relations, and a Newsmax contributor. The views presented are those
of the author and do not represent the views of the U.S. government,
U.S.Department of Defense, or its components. Read Gen. Holt's reports -
More Here.

Posts by Brig Gen (ret) Blaine Holt
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View More Posts by Brig Gen (ret) Blaine Holt

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Turkish Press: ‘We do not know how many Armenians live in Turkey’

Turkey –
'We do not know how many Armenians live in Turkey'

Hrant Dink Foundation visited bianet for exchange of opinions. The foundation, currently working on hate speech on social media and the multicultural legacy in Turkey wishes that the media outlets report more on the major issues that concern the non-Muslim minorities in the country.

"All our main issues remain unsolved."

"We do not know how many Armenians live in Turkey."

"The 23.5 Site of Memory looks at the life of Hrant Dink, the stories of the Agos newspaper, and the past of the Armenian society in Turkey.

"Hate speech is becoming more widespread on social media, while it is on the decline in the press." 

"KarDes is a mobile application designed as a personal tour guide for users who wish to discover the multicultural legacy of İstanbul."

IPS Communication Foundation/bianet is holding meetings with non-governmental organizations working in the fileds of human rights, gender equality, women's and LGBTI+ rights, migrants/refugees, ecology, rights of the disabled, law and media. 

The second meeting was held with the Hrant Dink Foundation. 

Yasemin Korkmaz, Atom Şaşkal, Katia Arslan, and Nayat Karaköse from the Hrant Dink Foundation participated in the meeting. They detailed the work carried out by the foundation and talked about the issues that concern the Armenian society in Turkey. 

"We do not know how many Armenians live in Turkey," says Nayat Karaköse, the coordinator of the 23.5 Hrant Dink Site of Memory. 

"All major issues remain unsolved," she adds. Noting that the press could report on all these problems, she says she wishes that the media would do more work in relation to the problems and the rights of minorities. 

Karaköse explains that the 23.5 Hrant Dink Site of Memory was founded four years ago, in the room which was the office where Hrant Dink worked in the Agos newspaper before he was murdered in front of the newspaper on December 19, 2007. 

"We can say that 23.5 is the first site of memory established in Turkey," she says. The site of memory opened its doors on April 23.5, 2019 [see below].

The center looks at the life of Hrant Dink, the stories of the Agos newspaper, and the past of the Armenian society in Turkey on the one hand, and highlights the murder, the background of the murder, and the legal struggle waged after the murder on the other hand, as Karaköse describes it. 

"This is a venue of hope, a venue of transformation, a venue of research because it contains archives, and a venue of dialogue, interaction, and a venue for thinking and producing together," she says. 

Yasemin Korkmaz was the one to talk about the project of the foundation on "Hate speech on social media and artificial intelligence."

Reminding the participants that they have carried out a study on hate speech in the press in the past, she said that their target in the new project was to be able to identify hate speech on social media immediately and to collect data about it. 

Korkmaz observes that hate speech is becoming more and more widespread on social media, while it is on the decline in the press. 

"Hate speech was mostly used against the migrants/refugees and LGBTI+ during the election period," she says. 

KarDes, is a mobile application designed as a personal tour guide in Turkish and English languages for users who wish to discover the multicultural legacy and multilayered fabric of Istanbul, as it is described in its website. 

Atom Şaşkal, the coordinator of the Cultural Legacy project introduced the KarDes program.

"We are trying to uncover the stories of the people who are not seen, who are not heard on this land that we live in," says Şaşkal and describes the program as one that focuses on the cultural heritage of the non-Muslims. 

"The reason is that the non-Muslims are being overshadowed by the official history," he says. 

The locatons in İstanbul have been included in the application first, and locations in İzmir and Ankara were added later. 

Şaşkan informs that the application offers the users a personal tour guide in Turkish and English languages, either physically, while they walk through these locations or digitally, so anyone in any part of the world who wish to discover this multicultural legacy can use it. 

————————————————————————————

From Hrant Dink's article published on April 23, 1996 in Agos newspayer:

"April 23 is a white page in the history of a nation that has come out of painful decades. It is the day when the principle that "Sovereignty lies with the nation under any circumstances," was written on the wall in the Parliament. 

"April 24 is a significant dark day for the Armenian nation "dispersed" throughout the world. […] It is the date when the "historical Armenian tragedy" that took place within the borders of the Ottoman Empire started. 

"I don't know who will be able to understand this; but as an Armenian and as a citizen of Turkey, I live April 23 with all its joy, and am part of the deep sadness, the next day. How many people, I wonder, are living this dilemma at the moment? It is not easy, neither to understand, nor to tell."

Armenian Soldier Wounded By Azerbaijani Fire In Border Area – Defense Ministry

UrduPoint
July 12 2023

 (@FahadShabbir) 

An Armenian serviceman has been wounded after Azerbaijani troops fired toward the Armenian combat outposts near the border between the two countries, the Armenian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik – 12th July, 2023) An Armenian serviceman has been wounded after Azerbaijani troops fired toward the Armenian combat outposts near the border between the two countries, the Armenian Defense Ministry said on Wednesday.

"On July 12, at 5:30 a.m. (09:30 GMT), units of the Azerbaijani armed forces fired towards the Armenian combat outposts nearby Tegh, in the wake of which the RA Armed Forces serviceman Y. Kh. wounded," the ministry said in a statement.

The soldier's condition is assessed as "satisfactory," with his life not being in danger, it added.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two wars over disputed Nagorny-Karabakh, an Armenian-majority mountainous region wedged in between the two nations where both have a military presence. The decades-long conflict reignited in fall 2020, marking the worst escalation since the 1990s. Hostilities ended in a Russia-brokered ceasefire and deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the region.

In September 2022, a new outbreak of hostilities between Yerevan and Baku was reported in an area unrelated to Nagorno-Karabakh, marking the most serious escalation since 2020.

https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/armenian-soldier-wounded-by-azerbaijani-fire-1722156.html