Russia’s woes in Ukraine could impact Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

Straight Arrow News
Peter Zeihan

Russia’s military apparatus has been stretched thin by Ukraine’s counteroffensive. The latest setback happened when Ukrainian missiles damaged a bridge that serves as an important supply corridor for Russian forces. Russia’s vulnerability could also impact the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a territory that has had Armenia and Azerbaijan at odds for years.

Armenia has kept Azerbaijan at bay in part because of its ties with Russia, but Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan says that could change if the Ukraine War ends badly for Vladimir Putin.

Excerpted from Peter’s June 21 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

Armenia and Azerbaijan have some “history” together … and not in a good way. As the Ukraine War ramps up and stress is added to the Russian system, will we see the Armenians and Azerbaijanis creating some new history?

This conflict boils down to ethnic and religious differences and a shared desire to control the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. While both sides have proven their lack of skill on the battlefield, Armenia has been able to deter Azerbaijani assaults thanks to their “partnership” with Russia.

For the past 30 years, we haven’t seen much movement from Azerbaijan; this is to avoid jeopardizing their oil exports and risk retaliations from the Russians. But as Russia becomes overcommitted in its war on Ukraine, we might see some movement on this front.

The territories across the globe that have benefited from a Russian presence are all in a precarious situation. As soon as one domino falls, so will the rest … and the entire global position of the Russian Federation could be wrapped up in a matter of months. But will it be Azerbaijan that falls that first domino?

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Azerbaijani Press: Armenia should bear in mind Shusha Declaration as next iron fist could knock it down

AzerNews, Azerbaijan
Rena Murshud

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The Armenian side, which could not abide the laws imposed by the border checkpoint established in the Lachin district of Azerbaijan since April, finally ruptured today like a painful carbuncle. Starting in the morning, the Armenian terrorist groups, which started firing on the territory of Azerbaijan and the state border checkpoint, proved once again that they are determined to destabilize the region with the next provocation. As a result, Armenia, which lost two terrorist snipers by injuring one military serviceman of Azerbaijan, found itself in a more difficult situation.

Official Yerevan, which sometimes relies on the European Union mission group and sometimes runs to Russia and begs for help, has simply forgotten the main issue – the Turkic World and the Shusha Declaration, which can constantly bring it into active force.

Speaking to Azernews, Turkish military expert Yucel Karauz named several reasons for the endless Armenian provocations.

"There are 3-4 main reasons for the terrorist activity of Armenians. The first is the visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan to Baku and the very strong messages delivered during this visit. Secondly, to prevent the implementation of the Zangazur corridor after that. The third day is the anniversary of the Shusha Declaration. This declaration is an agreement that will be promoted and concluded not only by Azerbaijan-Turkiye, but by the entire Turkic world. So, there is a high probability that this is connected with the Shusha declaration and its anniversary."

The military expert named one more reason for another statement by the Turkish President in which he mentioned Iran as the only country that is against opening of the Zangazur corridor. For two hundred years either Iran, France, Brussels, or Washington have been using Armenia as a tool in the region. Armenia is not a state that makes decisions on its own. Instead of thinking about the interests of their nation and state, they are in the position of someone else's pawn. So, one should not expect any reasonable and competent behavior from Armenia.

Despite all these Armenian provocations, the European Union is monitoring there and at the same time turns a blind eye to the construction of a metallurgical plant that is first a real threat to the ecology.

"It is wrong to expect justice and law from the West. The double standards, hypocrisy, and false behavior of the West and third countries are only their own laws in matters of democracy, human rights, the rule of law, and the law of force or the law of interest. The activities of the observer on the construction of factories on this land and the establishment of such borders are not within Armenia's own inititive. Armenia is already accustomed to such attention. If they let the Armenians alone, they will be lost in the middle of nowehere."

Speaking about our demands and rights, the military expert noted that Azerbaijan demonstrated all this in accordance with international law in the Patriotic War, in the Shusha Declaration, in the organization of Turkic states, along with the Istanbul Summit. He underscored that if Armenia felt the iron fist over its head during the Second Karabakh War, it felt it again when the Shusha Declaration was signed. "In my opinion, the Armenian side felt the seventh iron fist when the organization of Turkic states was created. I think those behind Armenia should be kept accountable not onlt to Azerbaijan and Turkiye in accordance with the Shusha Declaration, but to our brothers and like-minded members in the organization of the Turkic states," the expert concluded

BREAKING: Azerbaijan blocks Red Cross, Russian peacekeeper-mediated humanitarian passage,cargo through Lachin Corridor

 13:26,

STEPANAKERT, JUNE 15, ARMENPRESS. Azerbaijan has banned all humanitarian passenger and cargo transportation through Lachin Corridor, the Nagorno Karabakh (Artsakh) authorities said on June 15.

Azerbaijan banned humanitarian passage after the June 15 provocation near Hakari Bridge.

“In particular, 25 patients and their family members were being transported by the International Committee of the Red Cross from Artsakh to Armenia, but the further movement of the vehicles was banned in the illegal Azerbaijani checkpoint functioning in the Kashatagh (Lachin) corridor, forcing them to return to Stepanakert. Besides, a passenger transportation of dozens of persons for urgent humanitarian needs scheduled for today in the Stepanakert-Goris-Stepanakert route that was supposed to take place by the Russian peacekeepers has also been cancelled. The movement of cargo trucks of Russian peacekeepers traveling to Goris for humanitarian cargo transportation has also been suspended,” the Artsakh Information Center said in a statement.

It added that the illegal Azerbaijani checkpoint itself in Lachin Corridor poses grave danger and obstacles for ensuring free movement between Artsakh and Armenia.

“Today’s incident once again confirms the existence of these dangers and obstacles, by additionally threatening the highly limited movement of people and goods for essential humanitarian needs of the people of Artsakh, even by the Red Cross and Russian peacekeepers. The authorities of Artsakh reiterate their position that the mode of the Lachin Corridor envisaged under the 9 November 2020 trilateral statement must be immediately and unconditionally ensured, without any Azerbaijani interference, and the 22 February 2023 ruling by the UN International Court of Justice over this issue must be implemented,” the Artsakh authorities said.