Author: Jirair Kafian

By Mark Dovich

As Armenia prepares for snap parliamentary elections, slated for June 20, attention has turned to reforming the country’s complex electoral code. Earlier this month, the ruling My Step alliance put forward a new draft electoral code. Under consideration since 2018, the proposed changes would replace the current system with a simpler proportional one.

Under the current code, adopted in 2016, Armenians elect representatives to the National Assembly (parliament) through a complicated two-tier party-list proportional system, with lawmakers elected from either a closed national list or an open district list. In that system, voters select only a political party of their choosing, rather than directly choosing representatives from a given party. Seats in the legislature are then given to each party in proportion to the number of votes each party receives, with half of the seats going to lawmakers from the closed national list, and the other half filled by representatives from the open district list. The national list is closed, meaning that voters do not know whom exactly they are selecting to represent them. In contrast, the district lists are open, such that voters can find out which candidates are on the party lists. What 13 districts? 10 marzes plus three Yerevan districts? 

International organizations, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and domestic civil society groups have long criticized the current system for its “complexity,” “its significant deviations from a purely proportional system,” and for opening opportunities for “the abuse of state resources and vote-buying at the local level.”

The long-awaited draft code also alters the electoral threshold that political parties and alliances would need to gain seats. Under the current system, individual parties must receive at least 5% of the vote to enter parliament, while alliances, like My Step, must receive at least 7%. But under the new proposal, the threshold for individual parties would be lowered to 4%, while the threshold for alliances would depend on the number of parties in a given alliance: 8% for two parties, 9% for three parties, and 10% for four or more parties.

Aside from those changes, the new electoral code also includes provisions aimed at “ensuring financial transparency of the election campaign” by banning public officials from combining official trips with campaign stops. Additionally, the new code would require that all transactions made during the election campaign be non-cash and carefully recorded.

The proposed code would alter regulations for media outlets covering the election and for third party organizations “whose names fully or partially coincide with the names of the parties” or “whose members…fully or partially coincide with the members of the…parties.” Under the new code, media outlets would be required to provide “non-discriminatory, balanced” information about all parties participating in the election, while third party organizations would have to register with the Central Election Commission.

Finally, the new code  bans political parties from receiving funding from “foreign states, international organizations, or foreign legal entities or individuals.”

The two opposition parties with representation in the National Assembly, Bright Armenia and Prosperous Armenia, have both expressed reservations over the reform plan. A Prosperous Armenia lawmaker, for instance, called the introduction of a new electoral code “not expedient,” given that the polls are slated to be held in only a few months.

But Bright Armenia appears to be more vociferously opposed to the reform, with party head Edmon Marukyan arguing that “you can’t change the rules of the game during the game.” Marukyan has also warned that the implementation of a new electoral code may cause widespread administrative confusion, possibly even delaying the vote. “Adopting new rules of gameplay means questioning the date of the election, therefore deepening the crisis in the country,” he said.

New laws and regulations pertaining to the election would need to be in place by the beginning of May, since the election is scheduled for June. The election campaign season is, by law, limited to 40 days and so would not begin until 40 days before the appointed election day.

Justice Minister Rustam Badasyan has hit back against Marukyan’s claims, arguing that implementing new electoral rules should be possible before the polls open. “There won’t be any obstacle for the June 20 early elections to be held under a clean proportional system with party lists,” he said earlier this week. Badasyan added that the Justice Ministry had already submitted the new draft electoral code to the Venice Commission for review. The Venice Commission is an advisory body of the Council of Europe that provides guidance to member states on issues of constitutional law.

Earlier today, embattled Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan also lent his support to the draft reform bill, calling the envisioned changes to the electoral system “simple” and dismissing the concerns expressed by the parliamentary opposition.

Aside from the changes detailed above, the new electoral code preserves a gender quota system that ensures that at least 25% of lawmakers are women, as well as four reserved seats for each of Armenia’s largest ethnic minority groups: Assyrians, Kurds, Russians, and Yazidis.

By Emilio Luciano Cricchio

The White House will recognize the Armenian Genocide this year, says American political scientist and president of the Eurasia Group consulting company Ian Bremmer, citing his sources in the White House and State Department. 

According to Bremmer, a senior White House adviser told him that “Biden is a man of his word,” and that the announcement can be probably expected for April 24, which is Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day. 

Bremmer went to say that, in recent days, he has heard from both White House and State Department officials that President Biden was angry when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan commented on his statement about Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Biden stated that Putin was “a killer” and “lacked a soul.” Erdogan called Biden’s comments “unacceptable.”

Chairman of the Pan-Armenian Council of Western America, Doctor of Political Science Vigen Hovsepyan said in an interview with Tert.am, “Since his time as a senator, Biden has supported US Armenians fighting for the recognition of the 1915 Genocide. This year, we are full of hope that Biden will not disappoint us.”

On October 29, 2019, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed Resolution 296 recognizing the Armenian Genocide:

On December 12 of the same year, the US Senate too voted for resolution 150, officially recognizing the Armenian Genocide.

President Joe Biden promised to recognize the 1915 Genocide during his campaign, when the Biden-Harris released a position paper, promising a swathe of policy initiatives which have been considered favourable for Armenians. 

Other policy initiatives included reviewing security assistance to Azerbaijan and reinstating financial aid to the Halo Trust, which is a UK-based organization involved in demining in Nagorno-Karabakh, which had its funding cut by the Trump administration. 

Bremmer further commented on the wider context of Turkey’s situation, saying, “The last few weeks have been difficult for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A lot of things are going wrong for Turkey. They withdrew from the Istanbul Convention, a European agreement that protects women. Also in Turkey, the governor of the Central Bank was dismissed (making him the fourth governor in two years). The Turkish lira is depreciating, and Erdogan’s popularity is declining. As a result, he has been attacking the pro-Kurdish Peoples ‘ Democratic Party (HDP).”

“But the important news is that Erdogan faces another diplomatic challenge coming from the United States. As I heard from the White House, President Biden is going to recognize the crimes against Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in 1915,” Bremmer said. 

US-Turkey relations have been in the spotlight since the Democrats took over the White House and the Hill. 

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken referred to Turkey as a “so-called” ally, a few days after being nominated by President Biden. 

On top of this, there were reports in the media that President Erdogan was dismayed about not having phone talks with President Biden, especially after having what many saw as a close relationship with the former administration. 

It is worth noting however that this is not the first time a US President has promised to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide. Both President Bill Clinton and President Barack Obama had promised to do so.