Author: Kafian Jirair

HEAD OF ARMENIAN DELEGATION TO NATO PA MHER SHAHGELDYAN COMMENTS ON
NONPARTICIPATION OF ARMENIA IN ROSE-ROTH SEMINAR

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 30. ARMINFO. The response of NATO PA to the letter
of Armenian Parliamentary Speaker on the necessity of security
provision to Armenian MPs at NATO seminar Rose-Roth in Baku was
received a little later. As a result, the Armenian delegation had no
time to attend the event. Head of the Armenian Parliamentary
Commission for Defense, National Security and Internal Affairs, Head
of Armenian delegation to NATO PA Mher Shahgeldyan told ARMINFO,
Tuesday.

He said that the Armenian delegation could not leave for Baku without
guarantees of NATO PA and Azerbaijani Parliament in the light of the
recent events when Armenian officers were not allowed to NATO military
exercises in BAKU, as well as the incident with expulsion of a
Bulgarian journalist Armenian by origin from Baku, and the statement
by Azerbaijani Parliamentary Speaker that participation of Armenians
in the seminar Rose-Roth would not be desirable. Meanwhile, the
Azerbaijani Parliamentary Speaker even did not respond to the above
letter of his Armenian counterpart.

It should be noted NATO PA Secretary General Simon Lann stated that
the Armenian MPs were provided with security guarantees for their
participation in Rose Roth seminar in Baku. He said that
representatives of the Armenian delegation called up from Moscow a day
before the seminar and informed that it will not participate in the
event.

Armenian ombudsman says she was not invited to Baku conference

Arminfo
29 Nov 04

YEREVAN

Armenian ombudsman Larisa Alaverdyan is not taking part in the third
international conference of European and CIS ombudsmen on 29-30
November in Baku.

By the last day Larisa Alaverdyan had still not received an invitation
to take part in the conference, although the Armenian ombudsman was
ready to take part in the conference’s work, the Armenian ombudsman’s
office told Arminfo. The theme of the international conference is the
role of civil society and education in the field of human rights and
the development of democracy. The event is dedicated to the 10th year
of the UN’s Decade for Human Rights Education and will be organized
with UNESCO support.

Larisa Alaverdyan said earlier that the issue of cooperation between
the Armenian and Azerbaijani ombudsmen was too politicized for the
time being.

[Passage omitted: reported details of Alaverdyan’s remarks]

Stiff prison terms for Equatorial Guinea coup plotters
11-26-2004, 19h28

Agence France Presse
Nov 26 2004

Desirey Minkoh – (AFP/File)

MALABO (AFP) – A court in Equatorial Guinea gave stiff jail sentences
to five South Africans and six Armenians arrested nine months ago for
plotting to oust President Teodoro Obiang Nguema, and to an opposition
leader and his government-in-exile for allegedly masterminding
the plot.

Three other South Africans were acquitted, along with three
Equato-Guineans out of five also on trial.

South African Nick du Toit was found guilty of organising the logistics
for the plot that saw suspects hauled in across Africa, including the
son of former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher for allegedly
bankrolling the conspiracy.

Du Toit was jailed for 34 years and fined 1.3 billion CFA francs
(around two million dollars, euros), while exiled opposition leader
Severo Moto was sentenced in his absence to 64 years in jail and
fined two billion CFA francs.

The attorney general of the tiny, oil-rich west African state last
week recommended that du Toit and Moto be sentenced to death, while
Obiang, who himself came to power in a putsch, vowed that “exemplary
sentences” would be imposed.

Du Toit has been held in the notorious Black Beach prison in Equatorial
Guinea’s capital Malabo since his arrest in February and was in court
to hear the verdict.

A former officer in South Africa’s special forces under apartheid,
the 48-year-old businessman admitted when he first went on trial
that he played a minor role in a plot to oust Obiang, but he later
retracted his statement.

Three of the Armenians, members of an air crew who flew shipments of
freight around Africa, were jailed for 24 years, the other three for
14 years, sparking protests from Yerevan.

Two of the Equato-Guineans were jailed for one year.

Eight members of a government in exile set up by Moto in Spain,
Equatorial Guinea’s former colonial ruler, were tried in their absence
and sentenced to 52 years in prison each.

Obiang’s regime, which has ruled since 1979 with an iron hand over
one of the world’s poorest countries turned major oil producer,
announced it had foiled a complex coup bid in March, which appeared to
have tentacles reaching across Africa and into Europe and the former
Soviet bloc.

Du Toit and his co-defendants were to guide a group of mercenaries
supposed to fly in from Zimbabwe to their targets in Equatorial Guinea,
the prosecution said.

The alleged mercenaries were arrested in Harare on March 7 and one
of them, Briton Simon Mann, was sentenced to seven years in jail in
Zimbabwe in September for attempting to buy weapons to be used in
the coup.

Sixty-seven other suspected mercenaries were sentenced to 12 to
16 months.

Thatcher, a friend of Mann, was arrested in August at his luxury home
in Cape Town, South Africa, and accused of contributing 275,000 dollars
(230,000 euros) to help finance the plot.

The 51-year-old son of the former British prime minister made three
appearances in South African courts this week only to hear the judges
set new dates, early next year, for hearings.

He has also been ordered to answer questions under oath from
prosecutors in Equatorial Guinea and will spend the coming months
confined to Cape Town.

While Du Toit initially said he carried out a minor logistics role
at the behest of Mann, he later retracted his confession, saying it
had been extracted under torture.

All the other defendants in Malabo categorically denied any involvement
in a coup plot. One of the defendants, a German, died in prison.

South Africa said it accepted the judgement against Du Toit and
the other South Africans, while Du Toit’s family said they were too
distraught to react.

“We are in shock and not sure yet exactly what is going on,” his
daughter, Marlise Bezuidenhout, 22, told AFP.

In Yerevan the foreign ministry slammed the verdict, saying, “we are
absolutely certain that the Armenian aircrew had nothing to do with
the attempted acts against the leadership of Equatorial Guinea.”

It said the court had produced no proof of the Armenians’ guilt,
adding that their lawyer would appeal.

Geragos Speaks Out Despite Gag Order

KSBW Channel.com, CA
Nov 26 2004

POSTED: 10:55 am PST November 26, 2004

LOS ANGELES — Scott Peterson’s attorney is speaking out despite
a gag order, talking about his attempt to get a new jury for the
penalty phase of the trial.

Mark Geragos spoke to reporters after attending an Armenian relief
telethon in Los Angeles Thursday night.

After a week’s delay, the penalty phase of the Peterson trial is
expected to start Monday. Geragos has filed a motion asking that the
same jury that convicted Peterson of murder not be allowed to decide
whether he will live or die.

“Actually, what was filed was a request to change venue or get a new
jury. And that’s specifically what’s before the Supreme Court. They
rule between now and Tuesday,” Geragos said.

Geragos said the jury has been tainted by the media coverage of
the trial.

The district and appellate courts have already rejected the defense
attorney’s request for a new jury.

Putin visits EU amid Ukraine poll tension

Reuters, UK
Nov 25 2004

THE HAGUE (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin is meeting
European Union leaders in The Hague for a summit that is expected to
focus on strained ties over Ukraine’s disputed presidential election.

The Union has called on Ukrainian authorities to investigate complaints
about the elections, which it said fell short of international
democratic standards. Russia has accused Europe of meddling and
inciting violence in the former Soviet state.

Putin was welcomed to the Dutch seat of government on Thursday by
Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, who holds the EU’s rotating
presidency. The two men shook hands, smiled and waved at photographers
but did not address waiting journalists.

Mass protests over the Ukraine vote have entered their fourth day
and pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko has called for a
general strike to protest at official results showing Prime Minister
Viktor Yanukovich won the election.

Moscow backed Yanukovich throughout the campaign and congratulated
him on his victory before official results.

The Netherlands, speaking on behalf of the EU presidency, demanded
in a statement late on Wednesday that irregularities reported by
international observers be rectified and has said it is sending a
special envoy to Ukraine to meet political leaders.

“The EU has noted that the second round of the presidential elections
last Sunday has fallen far short of international standards for
democratic elections,” it said. “The EU does not believe these results
reflect the will of the Ukrainian people.”

Relations with Russia were already tense before the Ukraine crisis
over the EU’s desire for greater engagement with countries that Moscow
sees as in its sphere of influence.

The bloc expanded in May to take in 10 new members, most of them in
the former communist east, and wants to promote democracy and human
rights in countries now bordering it, and help resolve conflicts in
Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Moscow resists this, fearing a further loss of prestige it has suffered
since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Following EU enlargement, Russia now sends 55 percent of its exports
to the bloc, while the EU in turn is heavily dependent on Russian
energy. But increased economic cooperation has so far not been
reflected in closer political ties.

ANSA Notiziario Generale in Italiano
Nov 23, 2004

NAGORNO KARABAKH:ITALIA PRONTA A OSPITARE PROVE DISGELO/ANSA ;
SOTTOSEGRETARIO ESTERI MARGHERITA BONIVER IN VISITA IN ARMENIA

IEREVAN (ARMENIA)

(dell’inviata Elisa Pinna)

(ANSA) – IEREVAN (ARMENIA), 23 NOV – L’Italia e’ pronta ad
ospitare un eventuale incontro interparlamentare di giovani
deputati dell’Armenia, dell’Azerbaijan e della Georgia al fine
di favorire una collaborazione regionale per risolvere i
conflitti territoriali e gli irrisolti irredentismi etnici e
religiosi che affliggono la regione del Caucaso, a partire dal
Nagorno-Karabakh, l’enclave cristiana armena secessionista dalla
Repubblica Musulmana Azera.

Lo ha annunciato oggi il sottosegretario agli Esteri, on.
Margherita Boniver, iniziando a Ierevan, capitale dell’Armenia,
una missione di tre giorni nel Caucaso meridionale, la “nuova
frontiera – come l’ha definita lei stessa – dell’Europa
allargata”.

Dell’idea di un incontro interparlamentare della Regione si
e parlato durante l’incontro tra l’on. Boniver e il giovane
presidente del Parlamento Armeno, Bagh Dassarian, 37 anni, che
auspica entusiasticamente una collaborazione informale tra
deputati, giovani, giornalisti delle diverse etnie per riportare
la pace in una delle regioni piu’ instabili del mondo.

E’ un progetto ambizioso e allo stesso tempo difficile
perche, come ha ricordato il ministro degli Esteri armeno,
Vartan Oskanjam, l’Armenia e l’Azerbaijan stanno oggi litigando
anche su quale debba essere il canale diplomatico per risolvere
la guerra del Nagorno-Karabakh, con il suo strascico di
centinaia di migliaia di profughi che aspettano ancora di
tornare a casa. L’Azerbaijan ha chiesto all’Onu di intervenire
sul conflitto, al momento in una fase cosiddetta ‘congelata’,
mentre l’Armenia punta tutto sul ‘gruppo di contatto di Minsk’
per arrivare ad un accordo entro breve tempo, forse due mesi.
“Il governo italiano – ha detto la Boniver – favorisce tutte le
strade diplomatiche, in prima battuta quella del gruppo di
Minsk. In sede Onu – ha annunciato – sara’ decisa una posizione
comune europea, e probabilmente essa si concretizzera’ in
un’astensione sulla mozione Azera”.

L’obiettivo principale della visita della Boniver nel Caucaso
e quella di consolidare “i gia’ eccellenti rapporti – cosi’ li
ha definiti – tra l’Italia e le nazioni di questa Regione”.

Il tour e’ cominciato oggi in una Ierevan sotto un cielo
plumbeo e nevoso. Prima tappa il ministero degli Esteri, un
palazzo che si affaccia sull’imponente e splendida piazza della
Repubblica, dove la statua di Lenin ha ormai ceduto il posto a
un maxischermo che trasmette musica rock e sport. Qui l’on.
Boniver insieme al ministro degli Esteri armeno ha firmato un
accordo bilaterale per tutelare gli investimenti reciproci delle
imprese dei due Paesi.

Con il presidente del Parlamento armeno la Boniver e’ entrata
piu’ nel merito dei drammi del Caucaso.

L’Armenia, e’ uno dei Paesi dell’ex Urss rimasto piu’ legato
a Mosca: russi sono i soldati che presidiano ancora l’aeroporto
di Ierevan, russa la gestione della media centrale nucleare di
Medzamor, che fornisce l’80 per cento dell’energia del Paese.

Ma l’alleanza con il potente vicino non ha salvato questa
nazione cristiana da oltre un decennio di poverta’, sofferenze
economiche e politiche, conflitti, da cui solo ora il Paese
sembra riscattarsi.

La diaspora armena all’estero sta provvedendo alla riapertura
di fabbriche e commerci, ma resta il grave problema della
chiusura delle frontiere con la Turchia e con l’Azerbaijan e il
pericolo costante di soffocamento per un Paese che non ha
sbocchi sul mare.

Il presidente del Parlamento ha parlato della necessita’ di
rafforzare i legami internazionali dell’Armenia ed ha
sottolineato che il processo di democratizzazione interno va
avanti, con la riforma del sistema elettorale e della
Costituzione. “Cosa estremamente apprezzata – ha detto la
Boniver – dal governo italiano”.
L’incontro della Boniver con il presidente della Repubblica
armena, Robert Kocarjan, l’ultimo dei colloqui di Stato a
Ierevan, e’ servito a preparare la visita che quest’ultimo fara
in Italia a fine gennaio del 2005 e che sara’ anticipata da una
mostra sull’Armenia a Milano.

In serata, il sottosegretario agli Esteri italiano visitera
un campo di profughi armeni provenienti dal Nagorno-Karabakh.
Domani la Boniver sara’ in Georgia e giovedi’ in Azerbaijan.
(ANSA).

Fitch upgrades Azerbaijan 

Interfax
22.11.2004

London. (Interfax) – Fitch Ratings, the international rating agency,
upgraded Azerbaijan’s Long-term foreign currency and local currency
ratings to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-‘ (BB minus), the agency said in a press
release.

The Short-term foreign currency rating is affirmed at ‘B’. Following
the upgrade, the Outlook for the Long-term ratings is now Stable.

The upgrade reflects a combination of macroeconomic stability and
low general government debt, together with the ongoing development
of the important oil and gas sector.

The high oil prices of the past two years have been relatively well
managed by the authorities, resulting in consolidated budget surpluses
and an accumulation of foreign reserves and assets in the State Oil
Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ).

Notwithstanding pressures to raise social expenditure, government
debt is forecast to remain equivalent to around 20% GDP for the next
two to three years. The majority of government debt is external,
and carries relatively low rates of interest and long maturities.

If official foreign exchange reserves and the external assets of
SOFAZ are taken into account, the general government is a net external
creditor to the tune of around 4% of GDP at end-2004.

Key oil and gas projects are proceeding as expected, pointing to
a sharp increase in output and export capacity as well as budget
revenues starting in 2006. This development is likely to increase
Azerbaijan’s dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, although rising
output will offer some insulation from price shocks.

While a large proportion of oil revenues have been placed with SOFAZ,
Fitch will continue to monitor oil wealth management closely. As oil
output rises, it will be increasingly important for the government
to adopt a long-term oil revenue management strategy to deal with
the windfalls that fall outside the State Fund.

This is of particular importance given the country’s limited economic
diversity and finite reserves of oil and gas, which could become
exhausted within 20 years.

Against a firm macroeconomic backdrop, structural reform has
effectively stalled. The privatization program remains subject to
delay and resistance, and the next stage of energy reform has been
slow in coming.

Meanwhile, efforts to diversify the economy have been weak. Although
the October presidential elections passed smoothly, Fitch believes
that the new regime will be subject to greater political risk than
the previous administration. While this is unlikely to lead to major
unrest, power vacuums or an escalation of tensions with Armenia, it
does suggest that the structural reform process will be more difficult.

As the country’s external balance sheet improves further and public
finances strengthen on the back of rising oil revenues, there could
be upward pressure on the rating, but the economy will, nonetheless,
remain highly exposed to sharp oil price fluctuations.

Continued prudent management of oil revenues through the State Oil
Fund is critical, as is the eventual adoption of a broader, more
comprehensive oil revenue management strategy. Structural reforms,
especially in the energy and financial sector will be lesser, albeit
important, considerations.

–Boundary_(ID_iFJD8tVB/kqfJJWPMttC0g)–

CENN -NOVEMBER 18, 2004 DAILY DIGEST
Table of Contents:
1. Azeri-Turkish Pipeline Costs to Eexceed Project Budget, Oil Boss Says

2. Cracked Joints Found in BP’s Georgia Pipeline
3. Government Faces Legal Action Over New BP Pipeline
4. New Programme Launch -Save the Children Assists NGOs Along the SCP
and BTC Pipeline Routes in Georgia
5. Rustavi Secondary School is Actively Involved in Implementation of BP
Projects
6. Ministers Dismiss Claims that Telasi’s Import Agreement Corrupt
7. Armenian-Iranian Pipeline Project Put Back to Year-end
8. Georgia Advocates Abolishment of Road Duty for Armenian Cargo
Transporters
9. Italian Commercial Office in Yerevan Set to Open Later This Month
10. Ingeocom CJSC to Start Construction of New Building for Armenian
Defense Ministry Soon
11. Armenia’s Millennium Challenge Aid Eligibility Renewed
12. Iran Says Nuclear Suspension May Last only a few months

1. AZERI-TURKISH PIPELINE COSTS TO EXCEED PROJECT BUDGET, OIL BOSS SAYS

Source: BBC Monitoring Service – United Kingdom; November 15, 2004

Baku, 15 November: The construction costs of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC) oil pipeline will exceed the project budget, Trend quoted the
SOCAR [State Oil Company of the Azerbaijani Republic] president, Natiq
Aliyev, as telling journalists.

He said more than 3bn dollars had been spent on the project so far. It
was earlier believed that the BTC construction would require 2.95bn
dollars (the total value of the project is 3.6bn dollars, including in
accrued credit interest and expenses on filling the pipeline).

“The project will be more expensive than originally planned because
there were major delays in the construction in Georgia and Turkey,’
Aliyev said. He added that in Turkey the delays were caused by the
failure to fulfill some tasks on time, especially the logistical one.

“Due to the fact that the Turkish section of the pipeline is
complicated, all material and equipment should have been ordered and
workforce figures calculated beforehand. But all this was done with
serious delays as the project did not receive the go-ahead on time
because of the BTC opponents who are trying to hamper its construction
even now,” the head of SOCAR said.

He said the appreciation of the project, which “may make up 5-7 per
cent”, is not taking place through the fault of its sponsors or
contractors.

“The BTC pipeline has very strong adversaries who are using all possible
and impossible tricks in an attempt to hamper its implementation. As a
result of this and not because someone hasn’t worked well enough, we
have lost a lot of time which is causing the appreciation of the
project,” he stressed.

Aliyev also said the construction of the pipeline is in its final stage
– 98 per cent of the entire work has been done. In Azerbaijan, the
construction work is almost over. Several crossings over railway lines
and the Kura River remain to be built and pumping and compressor
stations to undergo trials and be tested. In Georgia, a 3-km section of
the pipe remains to be welded. In Turkey, the work is progressing at a
good pace and, according to the Turkish side, is expected to finish in
March 2005.

However, Aliyev said that the work on pumping and compressor stations in
Turkey would not be fully completed by the time the pipeline
construction is over, therefore, a temporary scheme is being prepared
according to which the pumps and compressors will first be installed to
receive early oil, and the work will be continued later on. The SOCAR
president hopes that the first tanker carrying Azerbaijani oil will be
dispatched from the Ceyhan terminal in June 2005.

Aliyev also said that a meeting of the BTC Co. steering committee would
be held in London on 15-16 December, when shareholders will summarize
the results of 2004 and approve the programme and project budget for
2005.

The BTC project partners are: BP (30.1 per cent), SOCAR (25.00 per
cent), UNOCAL (8.90 per cent), Statoil (8.71 per cent), TPAO (6.53 per
cent), ENI (5.00 per cent), Itochu (3.40 per cent), ConocoPhillips (2.50
per cent), INPEX (2.50 per cent), Total (5.00 per cent) and Amerada Hess
(2.36 per cent).

2. CRACKED JOINTS FOUND IN BP’S GEORGIA PIPELINE

Source: The Guardian – United Kingdom; November 17, 2004

A vital $3bn (pounds 1.6bn) pipeline designed by BP to help meet
Britain’s oil needs well into the next decade has been riddled with
corrosion, it emerged yesterday.

Documents submitted to a Trade and Industry select committee reveal that
1,260 joints in one section alone had been found to be defective,
according to a study by WorleyParsons.

The US consultancy was asked to investigate the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC) link by lenders following speculation at the beginning of this
year that BP and its partners had run into trouble.

The report – made public for the first time yesterday – showed that 26%
of pipeline joints in Georgia had problems with cracking due to
difficulties with the coatings used.

A further 300 joints on the Azerbaijan section of the pipe had similar
problems and WorleyParsons criticized the “inaction” by the BTC
management team, which had “allowed the problems to become greater than
necessary”.

An even more damaging note to the committee came from another former
consultant to BP, Derek Mortimore, who described decisions taken with
regard to pipeline coating technology as “appalling”.

He argued that the UK oil company issued an innovative specification for
protecting the 1,760-kilometer pipeline that was inappropriate and
underdeveloped.

“The best you can say is that their fundamental decision to use the
unproven system was a guess,” Mr. Mortimore claims. The select committee
members published the documents as they quizzed senior staff from the
Export Credit Guarantee Department about the pipeline, which has
received pounds 81m of public money through the organization.

Martin O’Neill, the committee chairman, expressed “disappointment” at
the ECGD’s lack of transparency over the BTC pipeline, which has also
attracted criticism from human rights and environ mental activists. The
arm of the Department of Trade and Industry had only provided some
information a day ago, months after it was originally requested.

John Weiss, deputy chief executive of the ECGD, insisted that it had
been hampered by having to consult so many other parties, some of which
had stressed the “sensitivity” of the information.

BP last night dismissed the criticism, saying that it had investigated
all the allegations and had put them all right.

3. GOVERNMENT FACES LEGAL ACTION OVER NEW BP PIPELINE

Source: The Independent – United Kingdom; November 17, 2004

Opponents of a controversial oil pipeline being built by BP through
central Asia warned yesterday that the Government would face legal
action if it caused an environmental disaster.

Protest groups accused the Export Credit Guarantee Department of failing
to make proper checks before agreeing to underwrite a pounds 60m loan to
the BTC project being built by a BP-led consortium. But the deputy head
of the ECGD issued a robust defense of the decision, saying it carried
out “due diligence” before agreeing to provide cover.

Nick Hildyard, from The Corner House, an environmental pressure group,
said the ECGD had never reviewed BP’s decision to use an “experimental”
process to coat the pipe to prevent it from corrosion. It has since
emerged that the pipe has suffered from cracks although the damage has
now been repaired. He said: “If these things are not addressed then
there will be leaks, people will be harmed and the environment will be
harmed and there is a paper trail showing that BP was warned about this.
If there’s a leak then those responsible should be dragged into court
and that includes people in ECGD.”

But John Weiss, ECGD’s deputy chief executive, told a committee of MPs
that the department had carried out due diligence of the project. He
said WorleyParsons, an engineer it commissioned to review the project,
concluded in October 2004 it was content with the way the pipeline was
being monitored.

David Allwood, the head of ECGD’s business principles unit, told MPs the
department was aware this was the first time the coating had been used
to coat a plastic-covered pipe. But he added: “They have a monitoring
system so that if it got to stage where there was potential for a
rupture they will intervene.” He also told the Trade and Industry Select
Committee the ECGD should have consulted businesses before putting in
place tough new anti-bribery controls.

4. NEW PROGRAMME LAUNCH -SAVE THE CHILDREN ASSISTS NGOS ALONG THE SCP
AND BTC PIPELINE ROUTES IN GEORGIA

PRESS RELEASE

Tbilisi, November 18, 2004

On November 18, 2004, Save the Children will hold an official launch
event for EIP’s Small Grants Programme for NGO Capacity Building along
the SCP and BTC Pipeline Routes. The launch event will take place at
16:00 hours at the Courtyard by Marriott on 4 Freedom Squire in Tbilisi.

The two and half-year programme is launched under the Environmental
Investment Programme (EIP) initiated and funded by BP and its partners
in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline Company (BTC) and the South Caucasus
Pipeline Company (SCP).

The programme will be implemented by Save the Children (SC) together
with its local partner organization, Noah’s Ark Center for Recovery of
Endangered Species (NACRES). The goal of the programme is to develop the
capacities of local NGOs operating in the districts crossed by BTC and
SCP pipeline routes to engage citizens in environmental awareness,
public education and social development. This will be accomplished
through the provision of small grants to promote sound environmental
practices and enhance knowledge. A key priority for the programme is
developing local capacities through training to ensure sustainability.

The target regions for the programme are Kvemo Kartli and
Samtskhe-Javakheti, specifically the seven districts of Gardabani,
Marneuli, Tsalka, Tetri Tskaro, Akhaltsikhe, Borjomi and Adigeni.

The event will be attended by representatives from the Georgian
government, other diplomatic missions, international organizations, UN
agencies, Georgian NGOs, and the business community.

For further information please contact Save the Children:

Natia Deisadze
Programme Manager
Tel: (995 32) 996400; 995454
Fax: (995 32) 99843
E-mail: [email protected]

GvantsaAsatiani
InformationOfficer
Tel: (995 32) 996400; 995454
Fax:(995 32) 998943
E-mail:[email protected]

5. RUSTAVI SECONDARY SCHOOL IS ACTIVELY INVOLVED IN IMPLEMENTATION OF BP
PROJECTS

Source: The Messenger, November 17, 2004

Projects by BP and its partners in the Baku- Tbilisi- Ceyhan / South
Caucasus Pipeline (BTC/SCP) are continuing to support and assist the
communities along the pipeline route. In summer 2004 Mercy Corps
implemented a new initiative, Improved Schools Project, also funded by
BP and its partners in BTC / SCP. The program will be implemented in 42
schools of Rustavi, Marneuli, Tetri-Tskaro and Gardabani and will work
on school rehabilitation as well as social and professional development
of teachers, pupils and their parents.

Rustavi Secondary School #10 is one of the selected communities where
Mercy Corps and its partners have held an Action Planning Meeting where
teachers, parents and pupils together selected priorities and identified
problems they want to address during the lifetime of the program.

The school was established in 1990 as school of intensive study of
French. With support of the French Embassy in Georgia, the school has
enjoyed a successfully implemented Teachers Exchange Program; during
recent years several educators from France have conducted lesions and
workshops for teachers and pupils. In the exchange, teachers attended
advanced training courses in one of the Pari’s lyceums.

But school staff members and pupils lack basic conditions for a normal
and protected educational process. On rainy days water leaks into the
classrooms and during the winter it is impossible to heat classrooms.

`This building needs major repairs,’ explains school Director, Guram
Kobiashvili. `First we have to change the roof. Imagine, we aren’t able
to conduct lessons during bad weather.’

Mr. Kobiashvili adds that school staff ad parents are actively involved
in the project implementation proves. `And I would like to express
gratitude to the American NGO Mercy Corps for the rehabilitation of our
school, initiated and funded by BP and its partners. We will start
repair works in a few days.’

He also has praise for the work process that includes locally led
quality control. `Working bridges are already formed and community
initiative group members are going to monitor the work process and the
quality of the work,’ he says, adding that the school has included the
community’s most needy in he project: `It is noteworthy that community
members independently developed project proposals and in accordance with
their decision we will involve venerable community members in the
project implemtaion.’

6. MINISTERS DISMISS CLAIMS THAT TELASI’S IMPORT AGREEMENT CORRUPT

Source: The Messenger, November 16, 2004

Imports of electricity from Armenia will not be stopped, as had
previously been suggested, while imports from Russia will begin in the
next few days, Minister of Energy Nika Gilauri said on Monday November
25, 2004.

On Friday November 12, 2004 TELASI returned the license it received just
two weeks ago from the National Energy Regulation Commission (GNERC)
after accusations against the company’s import contracts

Director General of TELASI Dangiras Mikalajunas explained the company’s
decision to return the license relates to a recent letter sent by the
Energy Ombudsman David Ebralidze to the General Prosecutor of Georgia.

Ebralidze together with the MP Gia Natsvlishvili blamed TELASI for
signing one-sided agreements on imports from Armenia and Russia which
were profitable for Armenia and Russia but not for the Georgian
government. The letter claimed that the price of one imported
kilowatt/hour had been increased by 0.15 U.S. cents.

On Friday Mikalajunas said the Georgian government must evaluate this
letter and then decide over the future of electricity imports from
Armenia.

As a result, on Monday Minister Gilauri met with Minister of Security
Vano Merabishvili, General Prosecutor Gia Adeishvili and Director
General of Telasi Dangiras Mikalajunas to discuss the situation over
TELASI and electricity imports.

After the meeting, Gilauri stated that the imports from Armenia would
continue, while Merabishvili stated that TELASI received a full
guarantee from the government at the meeting that “there would be no
problem with importing electricity into the country.”

“There are forces in Georgia who do not want Tbilisi to have a 24-hour
electricity supply,” Merabishvili said, adding however that law
enforcers “are currently studying the statements” made in
Ebralidze’s letter.

Telasi’s press officer told The Messenger on Monday the government
expressed its support to TELASI, saying, “There was no corrupt deal
behind the electricity imports from Armenia.”
Telasi said that while it was true that the price of imports has
increased comparing with last year, this is “a worldwide matter.”

The company, which distributes electricity to Tbilisi, claims however,
that there is no item in the agreement which prohibits TELASI from
raising the price of imported energy.

TELASI also confirmed that imports from Russia will begin in a few days,
leading Deputy Minister of Energy Aleko Khetaguri to state at a press
conference on Friday that Tbilisi will receive electricity without
limitations.

Last Wednesday, November 10, Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania threatened
minister Gilauri by saying that unless problems in the sector were
resolved in two weeks, the minister would face dismissal.

Minister Gilauri responded that the ministry has formulated a plan for
improved payment collection, as well as a schedule for electricity
distribution, whereby the regions will receive eight hours per day,
large cities 18 hours, and the capital 24 hours of electricity.

“Such schedules will be formulated monthly and will be published in
regional newspapers and also will be announced by television and on the
internet. In this way the population will be able to check the schedule
of their region or city,” stated Gilauri.

7. ARMENIAN-IRANIAN PIPELINE PROJECT PUT BACK TO YEAR-END

Source: Interfax, Russia, November 16, 2004

Construction of the Armenian stretch of the Iran – Armenia gas pipeline
will not now begin until December this year, the Armenian Energy
Ministry told Interfax.

Work on the Armenian stretch of the pipeline was due to start late
October, but was delayed because preparations were not complete.

The ministry said dignitaries from Iran and Armenia would attend a
ceremony to mark the beginning of the project in December close to the
Armenian city of Meghri. It is expected that the first two kilometers of
the Meghri – Kajaran pipeline will be built. Iran’s Sanir will lay the
pipeline.

An official at Gazprom said last week that the Russian gas giant was
considering a role in the construction of a gas pipeline from Iran to
Armenia. But the Armenian ministry said this was unlikely as the project
does not promise high returns.

Iran signed a deal to supply Armenia with 36 billion cubic meters (bcm)
of gas per year over 20 years with the possibility of extending this by
five years and gas supplies to 47 bcm in May this year.

Work on Iran’s 100-km stretch began in June. The Iranian Export and
Development Bank set aside $30 million to finance the Armenian stretch.

It will cost a total of $210 million-$220 million to build the new
pipeline and renovate the existing Kajaran – Yerevan pipeline.

Iranian gas should start reaching Armenia by January 2007. All of the
gas will be used by power stations to generate electricity, some of
which will be exported to Iran and some of which will be consumed in
Armenia itself.

8. GEORGIA ADVOCATES ABOLISHMENT OF ROAD DUTY FOR ARMENIAN CARGO
TRANSPORTERS

Source: Arminfo, November 16, 2004

Georgia advocates abolishment of the road duty for Armenian cargo
transporters, says deputy economic development minister of Georgia Gena
Muradyan.

The road duty is the key problem for cars crossing the Armenian-Georgian
border. Muradyan says that the Georgian Government is liberalizing the
entire border crossing procedures. The road duty is $240 for one 20-ton
container. The chief of the automobile transport administration of
Georgia Alexander Chikvadze says that the Georgian Government has
drafted a new transport code envisaging lifting all road duties for
Armenia.

Manukyan says that in 1994 Armenia and Georgia agreed to mutually
abolish all road duties but point 4 was not clearly formulated and the
sides have to date been levying the duties from each other. The issue of
their abolishment was raised during Pres. Kocharyan’s last year visit to
Georgia and was welcomed by the Georgian side.

9. ITALIAN COMMERCIAL OFFICE IN YEREVAN SET TO OPEN LATER THIS MONTH

Source: ArmenPress, November 16, 2004

Italy’s ambassador to Armenia, Marco Clemente, told Armenpress the
Italian Commercial Office will be fully functional in a few week time,
possibly during the November 20-23 visit to Armenia of deputy foreign
minister Margherit Boniver.

The main function of the Office will be to provide information about the
Armenian economy and business opportunities to the Italian entrepreneurs
as well as to support those Armenian businessmen who want to expand
their activities in Italy in cooperation with and under the coordination
of the Italian Embassy in Yerevan, with the headquarter of the Italian
Trade Commission in Moscow.

“I am confident that with this extra tool the Italian Embassy will be
able to provide extra help to the business community in Armenia in its
strive to strengthen commercial bilateral ties between our two countries
and our two peoples,” the ambassador said, adding the Trade Commission
is planning to organize in Italy, at the beginning of next year, a
“Country Presentation” on Armenia that will most certainly attract much
attention by the Italian businessmen on Armenian economic and trade
opportunities.

10. INGEOCOM CJSC TO START CONSTRUCTION OF NEW BUILDING FOR ARMENIAN
DEFENSE MINISTRY SOON

Source: ARKA, November 16, 2004

INGEOCOM CJSC will start construction of new building for Armenian
Defense Ministry soon, as the CEO of the company Mikhail Rudyak during
his meeting with the Armenian President, as Armenian president Press
Service reports. Also, in his words, INGEOCOM plans to participate in
construction within Yerevan.

He also added that the company wishes unfold fundamental activity in
Armenia and looks at the perspectives of the cooperation with optimism,
as `Armenia has big quality potential of professionals in area of
construction’.

In his turn Kocharian said that he is satisfied with readiness of the
Union INGEOCOM to start its activity in the country stressing that
Armenia has serious constructional potential in implementation of which
the country is ready to cooperate with experienced partner.

To remind as earlier stated by the Russian mass media one of the largest
investment companies CJSC Union INGEOCOM expressed readiness to invest
in Armenia around USD 150 mln. In the first turn it is planned to
reconstruct the central part of Yerevan and construction of an important
state object with the surface more than 60 thou. sq. m. for the Armenian
Government. During three years there will be constructed around 300
thou. sq. m. of surface of housing, multifunctional complexes, offices
and hotels. INGEOCIM-Yerevan was established for the implementation of
this project. As per calculations of the company Armenia will create
more than 2 thousand jobs.

11. ARMENIA’S MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE AID ELIGIBILITY RENEWED

Sources: ; Armenia This Week 5-7, 9-20; Noyan Tapan
11-15

The U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) last week renewed
Armenia’s eligibility to receive Fiscal Year (FY) 2005 funds under the
performance-based foreign assistance program. Armenia and Georgia remain
the only former Soviet countries eligible and their governments’ reform
efforts are considered sufficiently advanced to qualify under MCC rules.

None of the $1 billion slated for FY 2004 have been disbursed since
Armenia and fourteen other countries were first selected last May.

Armenia’s Finance Ministry submitted a draft of its proposal to the MCC
last month and is currently updating it with input from non-government
experts. MCC’s Stephen Groff, who was in Yerevan this Monday, said the

Corporation urges all eligible countries to take their time and prepare
quality proposals.

12. IRAN SAYS NUCLEAR SUSPENSION MAY LAST ONLY A FEW MONTHS

Source: The Messenger, November 18, 2004

A senior Iranian official said on Wednesday November 17, 2004 that
Teheran was only likely to suspend sensitive nuclear activities
surrounding the enrichment of uranium for a few months. `We will give
the nuclear experts of both sides three months. If the work groups reach
an agreement, suspension will not make any sense anymore, diplomat and
nuclear negotiator Hussein Moussavian told state television. `Within
three to four months at the most, we should reach a stage where we have
an overall conclusion. If they come to no conclusion or say the only
visible guarantee would be to halt enrichment altogether, Iran will not
accept this,’ he added.

Ina accord with Britain, France and Germany, the Islamic republic has
agreed to suspend enrichment activities during negotiations on a
longer-term solution to the nuclear stand off.

—
*******************************************
CENN INFO
Caucasus Environmental NGO Network (CENN)

Tel: ++995 32 92 39 46
Fax: ++995 32 92 39 47
E-mail: [email protected]
URL:

November 18, 2004

Armenian Genocide Resource Center
5400 McBryde Ave
Richmond, CA 94805
(510) 965-0152
Contact: Richard Kloian

Armenian Genocide Educational posters now on the Internet

After four years of research and two years in production by a
dedicated artist in Portland, Oregon, a set of five instructional
posters on the Armenian Genocide has just been released and is now
available for viewing and free download on the web.

The posters were recently unveiled at an educator workhop in Oakland
California where the largest professional teacher training
organization in the U.S, Facing History and Ourselves, announced to
San Francisco Bay Area teachers and members of the community attending
their availability and endorsed the use of the posters in its national
teaching program on the Armenian Genocide.

The set of five theme oriented instructional posters teach about the
Armenian Genocide and provide a visual overview of key events related
to the genocide, its prelude, methodology, and aftermath.

Each illustrated poster measures 19″x25″ and includes photographs,
text, graphics and a chronology, allowing teachers and students to
easily conceptualize and grasp essential facts related to each theme,
and provides teachers with a template for further instruction,
exploration and study.

The posters have been teacher-tested and endorsed by Facing History
and Ourselves,which will be using them in its six regional offices. A
teacher study guide prepared by FHAO will be forthcoming soon.

Please see the following website for a detailed description of the
posters and information on how to obtain hard copies. A description of
the posters is below:

—————————————————————-

PANEL 1: Prelude to Genocide
A brief chronology of Ottoman history from 1502 to 1913 revealing the
myths and realities of Ottoman History and a list of major historical
events that led up to the Armenian massacres of 1894-96, 1909 and the
genocide of 1915. Includes an overview of the corrupt Ottoman
taxation system and the failed treaties that sought to protect the
Armenian minority in the Ottoman Empire against increasing abuses and
usurpations.

PANEL 2: Decapitation of a Nation
Includes a chronology of monthly events from Feb 1914 to May 1915
leading up to the genocide, the decision by Turkish leaders for the
genocide and their justification for it, the Turkish methodology to
first destroy Armenian leaders and intellectuals, the reaction to the
genocide by the Allies who for the first time warned Turkish leaders
for their “Crimes against Humanity” setting a legal precedent for a
concept used in future war crimes tribunals.

PANEL 3: Deportation
A chronology of monthly events from May 1915 to Feb 1916 showing the
deportation as a ruse for destruction of the Armenians. The full
U.S. State Dept translation of the Official Proclamation of
Deportation by the Young Turks showing the demonization of the
Armenians and the authorization for the genocide. Observations and
statements by Swiss, German and American eyewitnesses attesting to the
intent of the Turkish government to destroy the Armenians. Includes
photographs of the deportations, deportees, and survivors.

PANEL 4: Extermination
A chronology of monthly events from Oct 1916 to March 1918 with quotes
by major figures from the period describing in detail the deliberate
destruction of the Armenians and listing the growing reaction by
public figures in the U.S. and elsewhere to the genocide. Includes a
map showing the deportations and massacres, photographs of the victims
and refugees, many taken under threat of death.

PANEL 5: Aftermath
A chronology of related monthly events from May 1918 to July 1923
describing the fate of the survivors, Armenian women sold in slave
markets or taken in Moslem harems, the forced Islamization of
children, scenes of starvation and destitution with hundreds of
thousands of refugees seeking food, shelter and relief, the continued
destruction of Armenians in 1920 by Turkish Nationalist forces, a
discussion of treaties that first sought to atone for the injustices
upon the Armenians and then relegated their plight to the backwaters
of history thus giving impunity to the Turkish state and paving the
way for the denial that continues to today. Includes a map and
photographs of the refugees.

Survival strategies against catastrophe and disaster

The future is now

International humanitarian organisations are in urgent need of reform.
They have to improve their capacity to advance strategic thought and
planning, even if in so doing they risk having to challenge directly
those who at present fund their work.

Le Monde diplomatique
November 2004

By Agnès Callamard and Randolf Kent

“The greatest long-term threat”, suggests the political scientist Anatol
Lieven, “is one that our media hardly ever discuss, since it is too
long-term and insufficiently fashionable: the growing shortage of water,
due to a combination of over-population, inefficient use and
conservation, and the effect of global warming on the Himalayan
glaciers. If present trends continue, it is virtually certain that in 50
years’ time, much of Pakistan will be as dry as the Sahara – but a
Sahara with a population of hundreds of millions of human beings. The
same will be true of northern India” (1).

The melting of Himalayan glaciers, probably irreversibly, is due to
climate changes that directly result from human activities over the past
century. Only during this brief period in the 10,000-year history of
modern human beings have they actually become a major factor in
determining the course of nature. They have become “planetary
engineers”, says Professor Albert Harrison of the University of
California: “We have already transformed our own planet. We have changed
Earth’s landscape through enormous pit mines and through agriculture; we
have rerouted waterways through systems of dams, locks and canals; and
we have released tons of hydrocarbons and other chemicals into the
atmosphere, creating global warming and cutting holes into the ozone
layer” (2).

Human beings are now nature’s greatest hazard. Disasters and emergencies
are not peripheral events but reflections of the ways that we live our
normal lives, structure our societies and allocate our resources. Trends
in “natural disasters” underscore this. Deforestation and destruction of
wetlands, migration from unproductive rural areas to cities that cannot
afford to provide support infrastructures or livelihoods, and relative
governmental indifference to global warming all relate to the fact that
losses from natural disasters during the 1990s were three times those in
the 1980s and 15 times those of the 1950s.

Existing data dispels the myth that the economic and social consequences
of such disasters are limited to the areas where they struck. This was
the central issue at a conference – Crowding the Rim – at Stanford
University, California, in 2001. Geologists and disaster mitigation and
relief experts assessed the possible effects of disasters, including
earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, on the Pacific Rim, from Lima
through to Los Angeles, Seattle, Anchorage, Tokyo and Taipei (3).

As one noted, “The linkages that we have built to connect the US west
coast and Asia are all vulnerable to echo disruptions, and much larger
and devastating earthquakes are in prospect for Seattle and San
Francisco” (4). The 1999 earthquake in Taiwan was costly there in life
and property, and also disrupted economies as distant as that of San
Jose, California, where electronic industries were halted because of a
lack of essential components usually supplied by Taiwanese companies.
The earthquake revealed a disturbing, if not totally unforeseen,
dimension of globalisation: the economic vulnerability – in large-scale
lay-offs – of Californian workers to an event thousands of miles away.

Returning to Lieven’s concern about the immediate consequences of the
melting Himalayas, hundreds of millions of South Asians will be deprived
of water and livelihood at the same time as a combination of global
warming, inadequate conservation and overpopulation cause effects
elsewhere. We need to anticipate the migratory impact that hundreds of
millions of desperate people searching for survival will have on the
urban areas of South Asia and the security and stability of states in
the region. We need to consider how such potential insecurity and
instability (in the form of globally transmitted diseases, disruptive
migration patterns, regional conflicts) might expose our large-scale
human vulnerability worldwide. Disasters and emergencies are not the
monopoly of the developing world. The current global level of insecurity
resulting from 9/11, the “war on terror” and intervention in Iraq all
dramatically remind us that we can no longer hold on to the idea of
peripheral and geographically-contained humanitarian crises. We are all
unwilling participants in a global pandemic brought upon us by human
actions, whether guided by ruthless self-interest, messianic zeal or
perceived economic survival.

Not all such trends are inevitable, but we need to change how we view
disasters and emergencies, their causes, locations and effects. The
future is now. Professor Martin Rees of Cambridge University says
categorically that by ” 2020 an instance of bio-error or bio-terror will
have killed a million people” (5). Professor Thomas Homer-Dixon suggests
that humanity has already created the conditions for major global
catastrophes. He foresees “the synchronous failure of global, social,
economic and biophysical systems arising from diverse yet interacting
stresses” (6).

Yet the structures responsible for anticipating ways to mitigate,
prevent or prepare to respond to large-scale human vulnerability seem
incapable of doing so. The organisations deemed “humanitarian” –
governmental, non-governmental or inter-governmental – are stuck with
perceptions and processes that have more to do with institutional
survival and familiar routines.

Still, we have to recognise the problems of any organisation in
attempting to anticipate the future. Professor Rees notes that in 1937
the United States National Academy of Sciences organised a study to
predict breakthroughs: “Its report makes salutary reading for
technological forecasters today. It came up with some wise assessments
about agriculture, about synthetic gasoline, and synthetic rubber. But
what is more remarkable is the things it missed. No nuclear energy, no
antibiotics, no jet aircraft, no rocketry nor any use of space, no
computers; certainly no transistors. The committee overlooked the
technologies that actually dominated the second half of the 20th
century. Still less could they predict the social and political
transformations that occurred during that time” (7).

The issue for humanitarian organisations is less that of forecasting,
more the capacity to monitor, analyse and adapt to a global environment
marked by rapid change and complexity. The institutions required to
address effectively rapid technological and political changes and
anticipate potential humanitarian crises are those that are able to cope
with rapid change and complexity.

They are adaptive organisations with the capacity to monitor compelling
trends and the willingness to invest time and energy in understanding
their consequences. Their structures are designed to integrate a
relatively wide range of expertise and they most likely have
accommodated the different languages of the scientist, the political
strategist, the policy planner, the ethicist, and the decision-maker.
They have the courage to unpack power, confront their weaknesses in
accountability and work in partnership.

And organisations, even well-prepared, future-oriented, technically
savvy ones, cannot assume the responsibility to respond to current and
future crisis unilaterally: those affected directly or indirectly must
be genuinely involved in shaping the response if the response is to be
legitimate and effective (8). Above all, adaptive organisations are
externally oriented, more focused upon understanding the environment in
which they operate, than self-referential and self-absorbed non-adaptive
organisations.

The “humanitarian community” of today does not meet these requirements.
It is inherently reactive, more often than not unable to develop
strategies to anticipate, let alone respond, to looming crises. Only at
the beginning of the past decade did humanitarian organisations begin to
anticipate the human consequences of state collapse: the idea of
“complex emergencies” was a belated recognition. Yet a range of
large-scale crises was clearly inevitable, given states’ inability or
unwillingness to provide protection and welfare for their citizens.
Decline of livelihoods, uncontrolled violence and the collapse of
infrastructures presaged mass displacement, starvation and uncontrolled
disease. The warning signs had been visible since the 1970s (East
Pakistan) and were increasingly evident in the 1980s (Sudan), but it was
only when multiple crises (former Yugoslavia, the Horn of Africa) could
no longer be explained away using the conventional language of agencies
that a new perspective emerged.

These organisations also continue to perpetuate the divide between
“natural” and “man-made emergencies”, despite their obvious interactive
dynamics. Even now most organisations responsible for disasters and
emergencies do not focus on the links between natural disasters
(droughts and decline in livelihoods) and their potential political
impact upon the stability of affected societies. That natural disasters
and political emergencies are intertwined is an idea that eludes the
response mechanisms and often the perceptual frames of reference of most
humanitarian organisations.

Another telling example has to do with the relationship between
crisis-threatened communities and humanitarian organisations. Some in
the humanitarian sector have over the past 10 years addressed questions
of their accountability and unequal relationships with crisis-affected
populations (9). At the centre of this is the realisation that relief
workers do exercise power over the lives of such individuals and
communities and that humanitarian power can be abused or mismanaged.
Some agencies insist that the humanitarian ethos should take its moral
cue from those who suffer and survive crises rather than be defined only
through and by the well-intentioned intervener (10). The search for
accountability mechanisms is one of the most important ethical
developments. Yet these developments have failed to permeate mainstream
humanitarian thinking and practices. The security and political
challenges arising from operations in Afghanistan and Iraq have
sidelined the search for greater accountability.

Failure to anticipate the sources of humanitarian crises, to be
strategic in efforts to mitigate as well as to respond to disasters and
emergencies can be explained in several ways. First there is the
organisational culture of much of the humanitarian community; the
community’s underlying ethos, like that of firemen, is to respond to the
most acute immediate challenge. Then there is the competitive aid
environment in which NGOs and United Nations agencies operate. Four
recent independent studies have concluded that increased funds for
humanitarian assistance have led to an unseemly rush for donor
resources, often at the expense of the needs of both the disaster
victims and of the organisations’ integrity (11).

Humanitarian organisations are often guided by the interests of their
donors, who put national interests first when allocating funds (12).
There are no institutional rewards for those organisations that think
strategically about future vulnerabilities. This encourages agencies to
perpetuate the belief that disasters and emergencies are aberrant
phenomena that cannot be anticipated. Organisations, and those that fund
them, are reluctant to invest energy, let alone funds, in activities
thought speculative and theoretical. The perceived inability to forecast
provides everyone with an organisational excuse not to try to think more
strategically.

Organisations supposed to be on the front line of emergency prevention
and response are averse to taking risks. If they did, they might have to
embark on advocacy (warning against the sources of growing
vulnerability) and prescription (bold measures to offset disaster and
emergency agents). Both risk pitting them against funders who ensure
their organisational survival. According to Jean-François Rischard,
World Bank vice-president for Europe, there are at least 20 global
issues that must be resolved quickly if the world is to survive, from
global warming to global regulation of biotechnology. But there is no
pilot in the cockpit. Our present methods of dealing with global
problems are inadequate (13); consider the persistent attempts of the
governments of the US, and other countries, to ignore the threat of
climate change and derail global treaties to reduce the rate of change (14).

NOTES

(1) Anatol Lieven, “Preserver and Destroyer,” London Review of Books, 23
January 2003.

(2) Albert Harrison, Spacefaring: the Human Dimension, University of
California Press, Berkeley, 2001.

(3) Ibid.

(4) Donald Kennedy, “Science Terrorism and Natural Disasters”,
Science,18 January 2002

(5) Martin Rees, Our Final Century: Will the Human Race Survive the 21st
Century, William Heinemann, London, 2003.

(6) Lecture note by T Homer-Dixon, “The Real Danger of the 21st
Century”, part of a series on security sponsored by the US Congress
bipartisan study group, 1 December 2003.

(7) Martin Rees, op cit.

(8) See arguments by Amy Bartholomew and Jennifer Breakspear against
Ignatieff’s position on the war in Iraq: “Human Rights as Swords of
Empire”, in Socialist Register 2004, Leo Panitch and Colin Leys, eds,
Merlin Press, 2003.

(9) See the work of Sphere <;, Humanitarian
Accountability Partnership () and the Active
Learning Network for Accountability and Performance in Humanitarian
Action <;.

(10) See Hugo Slim, “Doing the Right Thing” in Studies on Emergencies
and Disaster Relief, no 6, Nordiska Afrikainstitutet, 1997.

(11) Development Initiatives, Global Humanitarian Assistance Flows 2003,
May 2003; Larry Minear and Ian Smillie, The Quality of Money: donor
behaviour in humanitarian financing, Humanitarianism and War Project,
Feinstein Famine Centre, Tufts University, April 2003; James Darcy,
“Measuring humanitarian need: A critical review of needs assessment
practice”, Overseas Development Institute, Humanitarian Policy Group,
Feb 2003.

(12) Minear and Smillie, op cit.

(13) Jean-François Rischard, High Noon: 20 Global Problems, 20 Years to
Solve Them, Basic Books, New York, 2002.

(14) So far 124 states, not including the US, have ratified, acceded to
or accepted the Kyoto protocol on climate change.

Original text in English