Author: Kamalian Hagop

Deutsche Welle , Germany
Aug 9 2009

Russia plays better hand in pipeline poker

Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Russia and Turkey
have agreed on the construction of a gas pipeline under the Black Sea
soon after the EU signed a deal with Ankara on the Nabucco
pipeline. The Russian project is ahead at the moment.

Russia and Europe are heading for a grim race in the construction of a
gas pipeline under the Black Sea. Or so it would appear after the
signing of a contract between Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

There’s a need for both the Russian South Stream as well as the
European Nabucco pipeline, because gas consumption in Europe will
increase in the next decade.

However, the Russian project is ahead at the moment, if you consider
it from a political and business point of view.

The Russians will be the first to begin construction and they can
probably more easily afford the estimated 20 billion euro ($28
billion) costs with their state-run Gazprom. A private consortium is
to build the EU pipeline for around 10 billion euro ($14 billion).

The Nabucco project has to be run as a business whereas Gazprom can
afford massive losses.

EU members disagree

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift:
Russia and Turkey signed the South Stream Pipeline deal on August 6
European states such as Greece, Italy, Bulgaria and Austria as well as
Turkey are partners in both pipeline projects.

This indicates two things: it’s everyone for himself when it comes to
energy security. A uniform European approach is not expected and is
also not desired, for energy provision falls in the jurisdiction of
the member states. A consistent energy policy in the European Union is
worlds away compared to the largest producer, Russia, because the 27
member states cannot agree on what they really want.

After their experiences as part of the former East Bloc, the Baltic
States and Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia want to avoid any
dependence on Russia.

The largest group in the EU, including Germany and France, are
compliant customers who know that they will be dependent on the
Russian gas stopcock for a long time to come.

In principle, it is only right that the North Stream in the Baltic and
South Stream and Nabucco in the south should provide alternatives to
the present supply lines through Ukraine and Belarus. Above all, the
loser will at first be Ukraine which will be deprived of its status as
an important transit country to Turkey.

The Caucasus question

The Caucasus plays a key role in the great gas debate. Important Gas
and oil pipelines, built with the help of the US, run through Georgia
which is in a long-term dispute with Russia.

Neither South Stream nor Nabucco can operate properly without a stable
Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift:
Nabucco has to be run as a business whereas Gazprom can afford massive
losses
And even more important than the question of the pipeline routes is
the question of the gas supplier. Who should supply the gas for the
pipelines? Russia and the EU are endeavoring to persuade the central
Asian states, especially Turkmenistan, Iraq and Iran to be the
suppliers. That’s where the actual competition is.

Russia does not produce enough from its own oil fields to be able to
fulfill the contracts and thus needs new sources. The EU is also
endeavoring to strengthen deliveries from the Mediterranean area and
Norway but here too new methods of conveyance are needed.

In order to guarantee the supply of energy, the EU has to do some
homework on its own territory. Europe desperately needs North-South
and East-West pipelines in order to be able to smooth out production
shortfalls among its member states.

France advocates that the Russians should not only be viewed as
competitors that one simply has to keep out of the European
market. Rather, the EU, Russia and Turkey should run all the pipelines
together.

The happy winner at the moment, thanks to its geographical position,
is Turkey. It will become the most important land of transit and is
connected via the third pipeline, Blue Stream, directly with Russia.

Turkey could not do anything else than sign the contracts with Putin,
after all, Russia supplies two thirds of the gas for the Turkish
market and thus possesses a virtual supply monopoly.

Author: Bernd Riegert (td)
Editor: Andreas Illmer

,,45526 70,00.html

NATO, US and EU not aware of peculiarities of regional conflicts
08.08.2009 13:56 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ `Normalization of Armenian-Turkish ties will not
negatively affect Armenian-Russian relations; just the contrary,’
Alexander Sotnichenko, leading analyst of St. Petersburg Center for
Middle East Studies, told a PanARMENIAN.Net correspondent. Armenia is
not involved in South Stream and Nabucco projects because of
complicated relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey,’ Russian expert
said, adding that Armenia’s involvement is only to the benefit of
project participants. Sotnichenko does not find Nabucco a realistic
project, considering Iran, the main gas supplier, is not a project
participant. `Armenia’s participation is theoretically ruled out, but
anyway, the pipeline will not operate to full capacity,’ he stressed.
Russian analyst finds regional conflict settlement a rather
complicated issue. `The most important thing is not to allow foreign
forces like NATO, US and even EU to get involved in conflict
settlement processes in any region, as they are not aware of
peculiarities of regional conflicts,’ he noted.
As a result of August 7 negotiations in Ankara, Russian and Turkish
Prime Ministers signed a cooperation agreement in oil and gas spheres.

EXPERT: BORDER GATE OPENING TO RUPTURE TURKISH IDEOLOGY

Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am
Aug 7 2009
Armenia

Armenian-Turkish border gate opening and resumption of bilateral
relations might bust stereotypes and taboos set in Turkish people’s
minds, Noravank Foundation expert Ruben Melkonyan told journalists
August 7.

"Armenian-Turkish border gate opening might exert significant influence
over Turkish people’s obsessed minds," Melkonyan said.

According to him, the border opening might incite crisis and
ideology-based Turkish society will ‘rupture’. Expert considers that
Armenian-Turkish communities’ dialogue is currently more significant
than the establishment of interstate relations.

Melkonyan considers Turkish society encounters difficulties in
perceiving the truth and this is greatly assisted by Turkish mass
media: "Turkish media unlike Armenian supports Governmental position
on Armenian-Turkish issue."

Minor part of Turkish society is willing to establish a direct
contact with Armenians, however in Armenia the contrary is the
case: "There is a moderate and superficial approach to this issue
in the society. Armenians have unmindful toward the prospects of
Armenian-Turkish rapprochement."

TURKISH SUSPECTS CHARGED WITH PLANS AGAINST ARMENIAN, ALEVI LEADERS

Aug 6 2009
Turkey

The judges accepted a third Ergenekon case indictment submitted by
the case prosecutors, indicting 52 more people.

The judges hearing the trial of Ergenekon, a clandestine gang charged
with plotting to overthrow the government, on Wednesday accepted a
third case indictment submitted by the case prosecutors, indicting
52 more people.

Suspects are charged with crimes that include plans to attack Turkey’s
Armenian Patriarch Mesrob II and a leader of the Alevi community,
Anatolian said.

Prosecutors charge the ultra-nationalist network planned assassinations
and bomb attacks to stir unrest to pave the way for a military
intervention.

"The indictment, which is composed of 1,454 pages, contains lawsuits
against 52 suspects, 37 of whom are still under arrest. The suspects
were arrested between Jan. 10, 2009 and April 17, 2009. Four of
those arrested suspects were later released and 11 of the suspects
were not arrested. The introduction section contains a summary of the
first phase of the Ergenekon investigation and the first indictment,
along with information on the activities planned and realized by the
organization, including its assassination plans and seized ammunition,"
Turkish media quoted of statement.

Among the suspects are retired generals, including the former chairman
of the National Security Council, a labour leader, university rectors
and the former head of the Higher Education Council, which regulates
universities, Anatolian said.

Turkish intellectuals say the Ergenekon trial is an effort to eradicate
shadowy forces that have undermined stability in the European Union
candidate nation.

The first hearing in the latest indictment is scheduled for
Sept. 7. The first trial began last year. Most of the defendants are
in police custody.

Council of State case

Prosecutors conducting the Ergenekon investigation have established
various links between the two cases. The most conspicuous ones are
the close relationship Council of State shooter Alparslan Arslan had
with some of the key suspects in the Ergenekon case.

Two of Ergenekon suspect, imcluding a leftist party leader Dogu
Perincek protested being tried with Arslan.

The armed attack by Alparslan Arslan against the Council of State
2. Department was on 17 May 2006. Alparslan Arslan first claimed he
staged the attack as a reaction to the rule on the "headscarf ban" by
the Council of State. But, Ergenekon indictment says that the attack
was performed by the instructions from Ergenekon terorist organization.

The prosecutors suspect that Muzaffer Tekin, a retired army captain
believed to be one of the higher-up leaders of Ergenekon, incited
Arslan to carry out the attack. Veli Kucuk, a retired general and
another key suspect in the Ergenekon investigation, was also implicated
in the top court shooting.

Dozens of documents, phone transcripts and photographs clearly indicate
that Arslan and some of the Ergenekon suspects were frequently in
contact with each other. When an arms cache inside a shanty house in
Istanbul’s Umraniye district was discovered in the summer of 2007 —
the discovery that would be the start of the Ergenekon probe — the
Council of State shooting was reinvestigated by prosecutors on the
Ergenekon case.

PUTIN URGED TO FAIL NABUCCO

Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am
Aug 6 2009
Armenia

Russian-Turkish and Russian-Azerbaijani energy projects might turn
into a close cooperation, said Giro Manoyan, ARF Dashnaktsutyun leader
and Armenian Cause office Head.

According to him, Armenia has to be vigilant not to allow this
cooperation to affect its interests. Meanwhile, he recalled Russia
to be Armenia’s strategic partner which is not "for free". First of
all it meets Russia’s interests, secondly with a glance to probable
danger from Turkey. So there is no need to panic, and have confidence
in Moscow only. Manoyan assumes Yerevan even today being as CSTO
member easily collaborates with NATO.

Commenting on Russia’s attempts to seize the Armenian-Turkish
rapprochement initiative from West, ARFD leader outlined that considers
this process the initiative of Yerevan with Ankara’s response as a
result of August 2008 war. If it is the merit of the West, Turkey
would yield to pressure long ago. "Presently, U.S. is excited with
this bilateral project. However, Russia is reluctant to stay aside not
to enable this process to assume anti-Russian tendency. It is evident
that West tried to decrease Russia’s influence in South Caucasus by
means of Armenian-Turkish rapprochement," Manoyan added.

As for Putin-Erdogan meeting in Ankara, he emphasized the core issue
of the discussion was energy, that is two conflicting projects –
Nabucco and South Stream. Moreover, the main purpose of Putin’s visit
was the urge towards failing Nabucco, essentially Russian project
and if possible to gain Ankara over his side.

YEREVAN EYES ANOTHER MASSIVE PROJECT

Asbarez
/yerevan-eyes-another-massive-project/
Aug 6, 2009

YEREVAN (RFE/RL)-The government formalized on Thursday its extremely
ambitious plans to seek more than $1 billion in external funding for
the expansion and upgrading of Armenia’s key highways which it says
would turn the country into a regional transit hub.

The government ordered relevant regional authorities to halt any
construction along hundreds of miles of roads stretching from northwest
the Armenian-Iranian border to Georgia. It also approved funding for
the first feasibility study on the project which it hopes will be
financed by the Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB).

"We are launching a big process of road construction," Prime Minister
Tigran Sargsyan said at a weekly session of his cabinet. "North-South
highway will meet the highest international standards," he told
ministers.

Sargsyan estimated the total cost of the project at roughly $1.5
billion, a sum worth more than half of Armenia’s state budget
for this year. He said the Armenian government has already asked
the ADB for a $700 million loan to finance the first phase of road
reconstruction. The bank’s governing board will consider the request
when it meets next month, he added.

Transport and Communications Minister Gurgen Sargsian said last month
that Yerevan and the ADB are already negotiating on the release of
$1 million in funding for the comprehensive feasibility studies on
the project.

"The project enables us to play a serious transit role in the region,"
he told journalists. "So it’s not an Armenian project, it’s a regional
project."

Sargsian said that neighboring Iran would find it much easier to use
Armenian territory for cargo shipments to and from Georgia and other
countries. He also stressed that the upgraded roads would connect
to a highway in southern Georgia leading to the Black Sea ports of
Batumi and Poti.

The Armenian and Georgian governments agreed last year to jointly
seek external assistance for rebuilding that highway and thereby
significantly shortening travel between Armenia and the Georgian Black
Sea coast. The issue was on the agenda of Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili’s recent visit to Yerevan. Sarkisian said afterwards that
the ADB has agreed in principle to finance the project.

The bank was already approached by the Yerevan government last year
over the financing of an even more ambitious project to build a
railway connecting Armenia and Iran. Expert says its implementation
would cost more than $1 billion.

The figure pales in comparison with at least $5 billion need for the
construction of a new reactor at the Metsamor nuclear power plant
planned by the government. The latter insists that foreign investors
have shown an interest in the project. But it has still not named
any of them.

RUBEN HAKHVERDIAN : "OUR BROTHERS’ BLOOD IS SHED IN LIBERATED TERRITORIES, THEY MUST NOT BE RETURNED"

Noyan Tapan
Aug 4, 2009

YEREVAN, AUGUST 4, NOYAN TAPAN. "Our brothers’ blood was shed in
liberated territories, they must not be returned. If a war starts
I will prepare and go to the war," this was the way composer Ruben
Hakhverdian formulated his position on the Nagorno Karabakh issue
at the August 3 press conference. And expressed an opinion on the
current state of Armenia, saying that "We live in the epoch of deep
feudalism when "we have imagined freedom, independence, but Armenia
has never been in such a dependent state."

R. Hakhverdian considers himself to be an artist, not an
intellectual. He sees people next to real intellectuals who makes use
of the moment, who sings to the government’s tune: "They are supporters
of all the authorities during officiating of the all the authorities."

Evaluating the current state of the Armenian singing art,
R. Hakhverdian mentioned that he notices a terrible fall of taste. "He
does not depend only on the people’s level: it is imposed to listen
to those songs, and it seems that is the horizon," R. Hakhverdian
said. In his words, the state in Armenia sponsors low-quality music,
instead of sponsoring classic one.

Meanwhile low-quality music gets state assistance in none of the
countries.

"I will never abase at the level to make my singing art a business,"
R. Hakhverdian stated, adding that he is satisfied with earning
bread, travells on minibuses. "I must communicate with the people,
argue with the salesman for a new song is born," the composer said.

BRAZILIAN MILITARY ATTACHE CONTRIBUTES TO DEVELOPMENT OF COOPERATION

Panorama.am
16:31 04/08/2009

Minister of Defense Seyran Ohanyan received today Ambassador
Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Brazil Mrs. Marcela Nikodemos,
MD press speaker Seyran Shahsuvaryan reports. Congratulating the
diplomat for taking the office, the minister expressed hope that
Brazilian-Armenian relations would be more improved covering new
aspects of cooperation.

Emphasizing Armenia’s interests to reinforce mutual cooperation
with the countries of Latin America, especially Brazil, Minister
Ohanyan offered to form expert groups to make reciprocal visits. It
was mentioned that crediting Brazilian military attache in Armenia
would contribute to the development of military cooperation.

YEREVAN TO HOST "MAN’S HEALTH – FROM THEORY TO PRACTICAL TREATMENT" SEMINAR

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
03.08.2009 19:50 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ On August 5-6, Yerevan will host a seminar entitled
"Man’s health – from theory to practical treatment".

Urologists, anthologists, sexopathologists, endocrinologists and other
physicians, specifying in diagnostics, prevention and treatment of
male diseases will participate in the seminar.

During the seminar, foreign experts will share their knowledge and
experience with Armenian colleagues. The experts will present modern
methods of treatment for STD-diagnosed men.

Statistically, men’s life span is 5 years shorter than women’s. Men’s
health maintenance is one of the first priorities of 21st century
medicine.

WORLD MOVES TO CATASTROPHIC ENERGY CRISIS

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
03.08.2009 19:50 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The world is moving to a catastrophic energy crisis,
which could nullify the global economic recovery. In fact, most of the
major oil fields the world passed their peak production, Fatih Birol,
the leading economist in the field of energy warns.

High oil prices caused by the rapid increase in demand and the
stagnation or even decline in supply, could impede economic recovery,
the doctor Fatih Birol said. Fatih Birol is the chief economist of the
International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, tasked to evaluate future
energy supply of countries of Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD).

In an interview with the British Independent Dr. Birol said, that
the public and many governments seem to forget that the oil on which
the modern civilization depends, goes much faster than before. He
predicts the global production of oil is likely to reaches its peak
after some 10 years. This is ten years earlier than the majority of
countries forcast.

According to Dr. Birol, the market power of the few oil-producing
countries, having significant oil reserves – mostly in the Middle
East – will grow rapidly after 2010 when the first symptoms of the
oil crisis will emerge.

IEA estimate, the decline in oil production at oil fields currently
reaches 6.7 per cent per year, compared with a 3.7 per cent decline
for 2007.