Think-Tank Offensive

THINK-TANK OFFENSIVE
James Morrison, [email protected]

Washington Times
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
DC

The crisis in the Republic of Georgia opened a new front in Washington,
where foreign-policy analysts rattled the Internet with e-mail
alerts on their solutions to stop Russian aggression against its
tiny neighbor.

>From the Atlantic Council to the Heritage Foundation, the think-tank
offensive roared into action after Georgia confronted pro-Russian
separatists in its breakaway region of South Ossetia last week,
prompting Moscow to invade Georgia.

Some analysts said Georgia gave Russia the excuse it was looking
for to crush Georgia’s pro-western government from seeking NATO
membership. Others suggested Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
deliberately provoked Moscow to try to internationalize the dispute
and pressure the United States into a more forceful defense of its
strongest ally in the Caucasus region of Europe.

The Atlantic Council urged a four-pronged diplomatic assault against
Russia. It called for suspending Russia from the Group of Eight
industrialized nations, discontinuing partnership and cooperation
talks between Russia and the European Union and appealing to the
International Olympic Committee to review Russia’s qualifications to
host the 2014 Winter Games. The council also called on other nations
to reconsider participating in the Russian Olympics, which would be
held in Sochi, about 35 miles from the Georgian border.

Ariel Cohen, an analyst with the Heritage Foundation, said Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is pursuing a policy of "regime change"
to remove Mr. Saakashvili and install a pro-Russian president in
Georgia.

"Russia is engaged in a classic combined arms operation," he said in
a e-mail memo Monday. "The [Russian] Black Sea Fleet is blockading
Georgia from the sea and likely preparing a landing, while Russian
ballistic missiles and its air force are attacking Georgian military
bases and cities."

Mr. Cohen argued that Russia "has long-prepared its aggression"
against Georgia’s pro-western government to undermine Mr. Saakashvili
and prevent Georgia from joining NATO.

"Aggression against Georgia also sends a strong signal to Ukraine
and Europe," he said. "Russia is playing a chess game of offense
and intimidation."

Brian Whitmore, in an analysis for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty,
suspected Mr. Saakashvili’s motives in attacking separatist forces
last week.

"The Georgian leader’s strategy is clear," he wrote on
"[Georgia’s] small army is no match for the Russian
military machine.

"Saakashvili’s only chance of success in his bid to regain control
of the Moscow-backed breakaway region of South Ossetia, therefore,
is to globalize the conflict and turn it into a central front of a
new struggle between Moscow and the West."

OUT OF GEORGIA

The U.S. Embassy in Georgia is evacuating Americans from the war zone
and warning those who chose to stay to keep their heads down.

The embassy Sunday organized a convoy from the Georgian capital,
Tbilisi, to the Armenian capital, Yerevan. Diplomats planned a second
convoy on Monday. The State Department on Saturday authorized the
departure of relatives of American diplomats.

"The [State] Department recommends that American citizens deter
non-essential travel to Georgia and that American citizens remaining
in Georgia review their security situation," the department said in
a warning posted on

It urged Americans who chose to remain in Georgia to monitor the
embassy’s Web site for further information.

Meanwhile in Washington, the phone line to the Georgian Embassy
transferred callers to a voice mailbox that was too full to take
additional messages.

http://georgia.usembassy.gov.
www.rferl.org.

Ankara: PKK Leader Expresses Desire To Testify In Ergenekon Case

PKK LEADER EXPRESSES DESIRE TO TESTIFY IN ERGENEKON CASE

Today’s Zaman
12 August 2008, Tuesday
Turkey

The founder and leader of the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK) has stated that he would like to testify before the prosecutor
handling the case of the ultranationalist Ergenekon gang, a shady
network that is accused of having plotted to overthrow the government.

The indictment against the suspected Ergenekon members, who include
retired senior army generals, academics, civil society representatives,
journalists and mafia leaders, has drawn links between the PKK and
the Ergenekon network. The indictment presents evidence and witness
accounts clearly suggesting that the members of the organization who
formerly worked in various intelligence units of the state had used the
PKK to shift public opinion in favor of their agenda, which aimed to
eventually trigger a military coup. The Vatan daily yesterday reported
that PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who is currently serving a life
sentence as the sole inmate of the prison-island of İmralı in the
Sea of Marmara, expressed his desire to testify to Prosecutor Zekeriya
Oz and provide him with information on the Ergenekon organization.

One of the issues Ocalan said he would like to inform the prosecutor
of is a proposal once made to him to assassinate Tansu Ciller, head of
the True Path Party (DYP) coalition government, which ruled between
1993 and 1995. Ocalan claimed that individuals related to Turkey’s
deep state, or Ergenekon, had once contacted him saying they were
plotting to assassinate Ciller and proposed that the PKK could claim
responsibility. "I rejected this offer," Ocalan said. He also noted
that he would like to share important information on Veli Kucuk, a
retired general currently in jail as a suspected Ergenekon leader, and
on some of the incidents that occurred in Turkey’s Kurdish-dominated
Southeast, where the PKK has been waging a violent separatist campaign
against Turkey’s security forces since the ’80s.

Ocalan also said he would like to respond to some of the allegations
that the PKK was covertly supported by shady elements within
the Turkish state. However, he also noted that he did not expect
the prosecutor to agree to hear his testimony. "They wouldn’t be
positive about my testifying," he said. Ocalan stated that he knew
there were attempts to infiltrate the PKK since the late ’70s, but he
denied allegations that he or the PKK were a project of the National
Intelligence Organization (MÄ°T).

Not just politics, but a lot of money

The indictment lists a number of politically motivated assassinations,
attacks and other activities, such as organizing seemingly civilian
rallies as part of Ergenekon’s ultranationalist social engineering
plans, but the enormous financial resources of the group also qualify
it as a major crime network.

A letter found in the home of Ergenekon suspect Kucuk, which is
addressed to him, informs the former general of a gang formed between
the military, the police and politicians in the southeastern city of
Hatay. This letter has also been made part of the indictment against
Ergenekon. This letter was written in the year 1996, when Kucuk was
still a member of the army and serving in the Southeast.

According to the letter, this gang, which organized the smuggling
of explosives and other goods into Turkey, made $3.5 billion in
their dealings. The gang was allegedly led by Gen. Ethem Erdag, who
retired in 2007, another man named Abdulkadir Eryılmaz and Col. Cengiz
Yıldırım, who was earlier suspected of gang involvement during an
investigation in 1996. Erdag was tried at a military court in 2007.

The letter says once Erdag was promoted to commander of the 3rd
Army Corps in the region, he started "appointing his own men" to
posts in the region. It notes that Capt. Ramazan Turan was promoted
to head of the Gendarmerie intelligence unit in Hatay. Col. Feramuz
Kucuk, another friend of Erdag, was assigned to the Hatay Provincial
Gendarmerie. The gang also had strong economic ties to a local tribe
known as the Zelluhs, the letter says.

The text details the names of colonels, captains and other officers
involved in illegal trade. "Everybody performs his role perfectly. It
is practically impossible for MÄ°T not to be aware of these activities;
however, MÄ°T remains outside of this team."

The names of 11 officers, a deputy police chief in Hatay and even
politicians, including Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) deputy Turan
Cirkin, are cited in the letter as being members of the gang.

Background of Ergenekon probe

The existence of Ergenekon, a behind-the-scenes network attempting
to use social and psychological engineering to shape the country
in accordance with its own ultranationalist ideology, has long been
suspected, but the current investigation into the group began only
in 2007, when a house in Ä°stanbul’s Umraniye district that was being
used as an arms depot was discovered by police.

The investigation was expanded to reveal elements of what in
Turkey is called the deep state, finally proving the existence of
the network, which is currently being accused of trying to incite
chaos and disorder in order to trigger a coup against the Justice
and Development Party (AK Party) government. The indictment, made
public last month, indicates that Ergenekon was behind a series of
political assassinations over the past two decades. The group is also
suspected of being behind the murder of Hrant Dink, a Turkish-Armenian
journalist killed by a teenager in 2007. Eighty-six suspects, 47 of
whom are currently under arrest, are accused of having suspicious
links to the gang. Suspects will start appearing before the court
on Oct. 20 and will face accusations that include "membership in an
armed terrorist group," "attempting to bring down the government,"
"inciting people to rebel against the Republic of Turkey" and other
similar crimes.

–Boundary_(ID_wlOQP+SgFWDj0iyj0uApaQ)–

No Panic Among Armenian Nationals Vacationing In Georgian Batumi

NO PANIC AMONG ARMENIAN NATIONALS VACATIONING IN GEORGIAN BATUMI

ARMENPRESS
Aug 11, 2008

YEREVAN, AUGUST 11, ARMENPRESS: Hakob Haji-Hakobian, Armenia’s
consular general in Georgia’s Batumi, told Armenpress that there is
no panic among Armenian nationals vacationing in this Georgian Black
sea resort town.

Speaking to Armenpress by phone the consular general said the number
of Armenians leaving for home even fell on August 11. He said some
650 Armenians arrived in Armenia today against 1,600 on August 10.

"Armenians are being transported by buses towards Armenian border and
there is no tension," he said adding that tensions in western parts
of Georgia decreased too.

He said the personnel of the consulate works round the clock.

Chief Of NKR MFA Information Department Marsel Petrossian’s Commenta

CHIEF OF NKR MFA INFORMATION DEPARTMENT MARSEL PETROSSIAN’S COMMENTARY FOR THE MASS MEDIA

armradio.am
08.08.2008 18:03

Another disinformation of Baku on building a settlement of Nargiztepe
for refugees on the occupied territory of NKR Martouni region,
obviously, pursues propagandistic goals. It is not accidental that,
first, this information was promptly denied just by the Azerbaijani
party. However, some of its points were "resuscitated" and introduced
in a rather different angle, as it is often practiced in Azerbaijan.

A reasonable question arises in this connection: why is Nargiztepe
settlement being built just in the Arami desert, 2-3 km from the
contact-line, an area, which, according to the Azerbaijani party,
is permanently fired at and is not absolutely adapted for habitation?

Couldn’t they find a more favorable inhabitancy than this severe desert
for the refugees from Nagorno Karabakh who are more developed than
the citizens of the Azerbaijani regions? This "initiative" should
be qualified as a couldn’t-care-less attitude towards the mentioned
section of the population.

Probably, Baku decided to organize another military-political
provocation – to draw informational-propagandistic "fire" to the newly
created settlement, and in fact – reservation of 5 or 6 thousand of
forced settlers (according to our data, this is the number of refugees
from Nagorno Karabakh living nowadays in Az erbaijan) and shift the
guilt to the Karabakhi party.

During the war between Azerbaijan and Karabakh, there were many
instances that the Azeri authorities urgently populated different
settlements and then turned them into military control points, thus,
actually creating a "human wall" for their servicemen and dooming the
peaceful population to death. The Karabakhi party, which is concerned
about its former Azerbaijani citizens, expresses its regret that
for 20 years the Azeri leadership has taken no steps for thawing the
relations between the two alienable nations.

Maybe, Baku merely seeks for new ways of laundering its
petrodollars? And the searches have obviously brought to the desert.

Actually, we have no doubt and would like to warn the societies
that the Azeri propagandistic machine will start including the
above-mentioned settlement into its Defense Ministry’s round-ups as
a place, which is under the NKR Defense Army’s heavy fire.

How Long Community Heads Are To "Govern"

HOW LONG COMMUNITY HEADS ARE TO "GOVERN"

Panorama.am
21:06 04/08/2008

"The National Assembly of Armenia has adopted a law "About Yerevan". As
soon as this law is completely adopted and fulfilled the exact date
of Yerevan Mayor Elections will be appointed," said the Chairman of
the Central Electoral Committee Garegin Azaryan in a press conference.

Though the Chairman of the Committee could not present certain
information, he said that appropriate measures are being taken to meet
the forthcoming event. G. Azaryan said that according to the law it
is Central Electoral Committee which should handle and organize the
elections of the mayor.

To the question how long the new voted heads of Yerevan Communities
are going to lead their communities, Mr. Azaryan said that it is
possible but to guess. Hence he guessed that most possibly the new
heads will lead till 2009, as after that, according to the law,
the heads of the communities will be appointed by the mayor.

ARKA News Agency Issues Its Regular Financial & Economic Bulletin On

ARKA NEWS AGENCY ISSUES ITS REGULAR FINANCIAL & ECONOMIC BULLETIN ON Q2 2008

ARKA
Aug 4, 2008

YEREVAN, August 4. /ARKA/. ARKA News Agency has publicized the regular
issue of its financial-economic bulletin – "Loan Organizations of
Armenia" on the second quarter 2008.

The bulletin is published quarterly and is developed based on the
official financial reports published in the press. The 35-page bulletin
is composed of 12 major chapters.

TBILISI: The Recent Summit Georgian Presidency GUAM: A New Chance Fo

THE RECENT SUMMIT GEORGIAN PRESIDENCY GUAM: A NEW CHANCE FOR REGIONAL PEACE INITIATIVES

Daily Georgian Times
Aug 4 2008
Georgia

The recent Summit of GUAM in Georgia has reiterated the wish of its
Member States – Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova – to deal
with the still unresolved conflicts in the South Cau-casus. Moreover,
this collective diplomacy tool could make Georgia a regional leader,
by means of a pro-active approach to conflict resolution, including
cooperation with non-government ac-tors in international politics.

One of these – Universal Peace Federation, an international
world-wide NGO, which enjoys a consultative status with the UN ECOSOC,
recently launched its new South Caucasus Peace ini-tiative, aimed
at contributing, by using a ‘people’s diplomacy’, to the resolution
of one of the oldest conflicts in Eurasia, i.e. the one involving
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Unfortunately, the region is overburdened with unresolved conflicts,
including the situation be-tween Georgia and Abkhazia, and others. So
why is Nagorny-Karabakh first?

The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is
the most significant obstacle to peace and stability in the South
Caucasus. The conflict began in 1988 due to Arme-nian territorial
claims for Nagorny-Karabakh, a territory populated by ethnic Armenians,
which was arbitrarily given to Azerbaijan by Bolshevik leaders in
Moscow in 1921.

Since 1992, Armenian Armed Forces have occupied 20% of Azerbaijan
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and its seven surrounding
districts. In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement
that ended active hostilities. 14 years into a ceasefire, the parties
have been unable to sign a single document bringing them closer to
a settlement.

Nagorno-Karabakh has aspirations for independence and argues
that it has a democratically-elected government that is meeting
the preconditions of statehood. However, it is internationally
recognized as part of Azerbaijan and is still highly dependant on
Armenia for its military security and economic survival. Azeris
do not participate in its political, economic, cultural, and social
institutions. Nagorny-Karabakh has mono-ethnic institutions and become
one of the world’s most militarized societies.

Deprived of the basic right to return to their homes, over half a
million Azeris displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent
districts have become highly dependent on the Azerbai-jani state,
without a clear sense of their future. Armenian and Azerbaijani public
opinion on how to resolve the conflict is as divided as ever.

For many historical, demographical, geographical, and economic
factors, Azeris and Armenians living in and around the conflict
zone are dependent on each other. Yet they are deeply divided by
mistrust. Demonization of the "other," rising military expenditures,
and increasing ceasefire violations are all ominous signs that time
for a peaceful settlement may be running out.

Oil money has given Azerbaijan new self-confidence and the means
to upgrade its armed forces. It seems to want to postpone any
peace deal until the military balance has shifted decisively
in its favor. Yerevan, which itself has done surprisingly well
economically, has also become more in-transigent and increased its
own military expenditures. It believes that time is on its side,
that Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto independence will become a reality
increasingly difficult to ig-nore, especially after the independence
of Kosovo was proclaimed and widely recognizedï~@ª.

Unfortunately, political and diplomatic efforts to resolve the
conflict, including those within the framework of CIS, OSCE Minsk
contact group, and PACE Ad hoc Committee on Nagorny Ka-rabakh, fail
to bring positive results. In turn, those representing the Universal
Peace Federation, offer an approach, based on the principle, proposed
by great peacemaker Dr Martin Luther King, Jr.: "We get rid of an
enemy by getting rid of enmity."

South Caucasus Peace Initiative includes a comprehensive plan of
peace building and develop-ment, based on core human values and
universal moral principles. We believe that, by addressing the root
causes of conflict, embedded in people’s heart, we could build the
basis for building peace, harmony, and cooperation between cultures
and religions.

By planning international forums and conferences, humanitarian and
service projects, culture and education programs, etc. activities
within the region and in other countries, we count on joint ef-fort
by government and non-government organizations, various confessions,
and private busi-nesses. In this work we rely on our Peace Ambassadors,
a network of people of goodwill, de-voted to enthusiastic and volunteer
work for peace. The goals and objectives of these activities are
as follows:

â~@¢ To promote the concept of "Peace in Heart- Peace in Family –
Peace in Society – Peace on the Planet"

â~@¢ To concentrate public attention on the urgent need to take steps
towards the peaceful so-lution of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict

â~@¢ To set up sustainable and effective coalition of Ambassadors
for Peace and other people of goodwill, able to deal with the conflict

â~@¢ To facilitate dialogue between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorny
Karabakh Republic, and to involve state bodies in peace efforts,
resulting in efficient mechanisms of commu-nication and negotiation

â~@¢ To establish international contacts with likewise public
associations and movements, in-volved in Nagorny Karabakh peace process

â~@¢ To consolidate isolated peace and service efforts, for the sake
of joint positive develop-ment around the Nagorny Karabakh

â~@¢ To consider the related issue of the blockade of the
Turkish-Armenian border, imposed in 1993

â~@¢ To contribute, by means of service and humanitarian assistance
projects, to human devel-opment and human security of the population
of Armenia and Azerbaijan, especially of those living in the conflict
zone, and of the displaced persons and refugees.

We hope that GUAM could become a major stakeholder of the South
Caucasus Peace Initiative. Others may include the Governments of
Armenia and Azerbaijan, especially offices of Commis-sioners for
Human Rights; Ambassadors for Peace and their related contacts,
representing Rus-sia, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine, Turkey, Iran, etc. We
also count on AGAT – a forum of Azer-baijan, Georgia, Armenia, and
Turkey, proposed by Turkey to deal with the regional security and
cooperation; the Turkish-Armenian Council of Business Development;
Armenian and Azerbai-jani Diaspora in the US, Russia, France, etc.;
and other public associations and groups.

We believe that the Georgian Presidency of GUAM, which began recently,
is a unique opportu-nity for collective efforts in the region of
South Caucasus. Let us take this chance together to make peace!

Vladimir Petrovsky, President, Russian national peace council
2008.08.04 19:16

–Boundary_(ID_KYUvmLNHAhRRnOqdCJG75w)–

Boxing: Darchinyan Defeats Kirilov For Bantamweight Title

DARCHINYAN DEFEATS KIRILOV FOR BANTAMWEIGHT TITLE

International Herald Tribune
Aug 3 2008
France

AP. TACOMA, Wash.: Victor Darchinyan took the IBF junior bantamweight
title from Dimitri Kirilov on Saturday night with a fifth-round
knockout in a fight that Darchinyan dominated from start to finish.

A left hand by the 32-year-old Darchinyan sent Kirilov to the mat
for the second time in the fifth round, and Kirilov was unable to
get back to his feet. The bout at the Emerald Queen Casino ended at
the 1:05 mark of the fifth.

"I lost my title one year ago, and I’ve now returned to the
championship," said Darchinyan, (30-1-1 with 24 knockouts), who
took the fight to Kirilov (23-4-1, 9 knockouts) from the opening
bell. "I never underestimate my opponents. I’ve learned a lot in my
last several fights."

The left-handed Darchinyan set the tone in the opening round with
several solid hooks, then scored more with jabs during the second
round. He continued his assault with several quick, successive
punches to the head during the third round, while Kirilov had trouble
connecting with anything.

"I took the wrong approach," Kirilov said. "(Trainier) Freddie Roach
told me to move to my left, but I wasn’t doing that. I was trying
to hit him with one big punch. I was not able to throw combinations,
because I was just not able to do the work I normally do."

Today in Sports A new turn on the circuit: Grand Prix tourismHamilton
puts McLaren on pole in HungaryU.S. team stripped of 2000 gold medal
Kirilov seemed to get back into the fight in the fourth round. But
Darchinyan came out strong in the fifth, throwing three quick punches
and sending Kirilov to the mat for the first time 30 seconds into the
round, resulting in a standing eight count. Kirilov, who ended the
fourth round bleeding from the left side of his nose, came right back,
but not for long, as Darchinyan pushed him back toward the ropes,
then ended it with a left-handed shot to the head.

Kirilov got to his knees and grabbed the rope, but was unable to get
back to his feet by the end of the 10 count.

Darchinyan, born in Armenia and now living in Australia, dominated the
super flyweight division, successfully defending his title six times,
five inside the distance before losing in an upset to Norito Donaire
last July. He is now 8-1 with seven knockouts in title bouts.

Darchinyan fought to a 12-round draw against Zey Gorres on Feb. 2. In
an elimination bout for the right to fight Kirilov, Gorres was cut
badly and was unable to train while healing, thus giving Darchinyan
the mandatory challenge.

In the co-main event, 2004 U.S. Olympic bronze medalist Andre
Dirrell scored a fourth-round TKO against Mike Paschal in a battle
of undefeated super middleweights. The 24-year-old Dirrell raised
his record to 16-0, while dropping Paschal to 17-1-1 with four KOs.

Armenia’s Diplomatic Outposts Abroad Should Address Problems Of RA C

ARMENIA’S DIPLOMATIC OUTPOSTS ABROAD SHOULD ADDRESS PROBLEMS OF RA CITIZENS

PanARMENIAN.Net
02.08.2008 15:29 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Currently in Moscow on a formal visit, Armenian
Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian attended the RA Embassy to meet
with the diplomatic corps and Armenian citizens.

"Armenia’s diplomatic outposts abroad should address the problems of
RA citizens. Each problem should be handed a fair and quick solution,"
the Minister said.

Ways to increase efficiency of the consular activity and to improve
service were also discussed the RA MFA press office reported.