Hopeful signs for Turkey, Armenia
By David L. Phillips
Boston Globe, MA
April 19 2005
AS ARMENIANS gather worldwide this weekend to commemorate the
90th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, they are debating
Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. The nationalist fringe believes
there should be no contact between Turks and Armenians until Turkey
stops denying the genocide, pays reparations, and returns territory.
Most Armenians support dialogue and cooperation. They endorse opening
the border in order to end Armenia’s isolation and impoverishment.
For 90 years, Turkish-Armenian relations have been defined by enmity
and distrust. Misunderstandings are compounded by dramatically
different versions of history. Armenians and most international
historians describe pogroms in the late 19th century that killed one
quarter million Armenians in eastern Anatolia. On April 24, 1915, some
800 Armenian community leaders were executed and the deportation of
Armenians resulted in the deaths of 1.5 million between 1915 and 1923.
The Turkish government emphasizes the war context in which events
occurred. It points out that the deportation was in response to
security concerns arising from the Armenian rebellion during which
hundreds of thousands of Turks died. Turkey rejects use of the term
genocide and resents efforts by Armenians to gain international
recognition. Progress is further complicated by diaspora politics
and the occupation of territories in Azerbaijan by Armenians.
In 2001, a heroic group of Turks and Armenians decided it was time to
talk. They established the Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Commission,
which broke a taboo about Armenian issues in Turkey and spawned civil
society projects involving business leaders, women’s associations,
youth groups, cultural activities, parliamentarians, and local
government officials.
This is not a substitute for official diplomacy. The goal is to
explore the underlying conditions that gave rise to conflict and
develop strategies. As a result, the conflict comes to be seen as a
shared problem.
The commission’s primary goal was to encourage Turkey and Armenian to
open the Kars-Gyumri border gate as a first step toward establishing
diplomatic relations. But the genocide issue cast a long shadow
over discussions.
To address this problem, Turks and Armenians agreed to seek
a non-binding legal opinion facilitated by the well-respected
International Center for Transitional Justice on the “applicability
of the Genocide Convention to events in the early Twentieth Century.”
To the satisfaction of the Turks, the analysis concluded: “The
Genocide Convention contains no provisions mandating its retroactive
application. Therefore, no legal, financial, or territorial claim
arising out of the events could successfully be made against any
individual or state under the Convention.” This determination was
important to Turks who believe that, from the 1920 Sevres Treaty
to today, great powers misunderstand Turkey and seek to diminish or
dismember their country.
The legal analysis also examined the events in the context of
international law. To the satisfaction of Armenians, it concluded that
one or more persons were killed; such persons belonged to a particular
ethnic, racial, or religious group; the action took place as part
of a pattern of conduct against the group; and at least some of the
Ottoman rulers knew that the consequence of the deportation orders
would result in many deaths. Therefore, their actions possessed the
prerequisite genocidal intent.
Though the win-win analysis could be used by governments of Turkey
and Armenia to break the impasse, it is clear that Ankara is a long
way from recognizing the genocide. Armenians are just as resolute in
continuing their efforts to gain recognition.
At this juncture, Turkey and Armenia should broaden the discussion.
The Armenian government can create conditions conducive to Turkey
opening the border by reaffirming its commitment to the 1921 Kars
Treaty that demarcated the boundary between modern-day Turkey and
Armenia.
Turkish officials should recognize that Turkey has nothing to fear
and lots to gain from opening the border. Normal travel and trade
would have a huge economic impact on the provinces bordering Armenia
while reducing the transportation cost of Turkish goods to Central
Asia and beyond.
Though the Bush administration has neglected Turkish-Armenian
issues since Sept. 11 and the Iraq War, the United States can play
an indispensable role. It should encourage Armenia to reach out and
point out to Turkey that good neighborly relations would enhance its
prospects of joining the European Union.
David L. Phillips is a senior fellow and deputy director of the Center
for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is author
of “Unsilencing the Past: Track Two Diplomacy and Turkish-Armenian
Reconciliation.”