Author: Khoyetsian Rose

RUSSIAN PRESIDENT: "WE WILL ASSIST TO THE RESOLUTION OF THE TRANS-DNIESTRIAN AND NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICTS"

Today.Az
/politics/48791.html
Nov 6 2008
Azerbaijan

President of Russia Dmitri Medvedev sent an appeal to the Federal
Assembly Wednesday.

"The Caucasus crisis showed again that application of force by one
of the conflict parties can not ensure effective solution.

In this connection we will further assist to elimination of instability
centers in the bordering regions on the basis of norms of international
law and we will assist to solution of the Trans-Dniestrian and Karabakh
conflicts based on the respect to existing formats.

We will also cooperate with all concerned parties and reach mutually
profitable agreements", says the document.

ACCORDING TO ALEXANDER ISKANDARIAN, THERE ARE NO TOO IMPORTANT AGREEMENTS IN NOVEMBER 2 DECLARATION

Noyan Tapan

Nov 5, 2008

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 5, NOYAN TAPAN. There is no negative point,
nor there is too important agreement in the Declaration signed by
the Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia on November 2
in Moscow. Political scientist Alexander Iskandarian, the Director
of the Caucasian Media Institute, expressed such an opinion at the
November 5 press conference. According to him, Georgia ceased to exist
as a partner for Russia after the Russian-Georgian armed conflict,
and Russia has decided to "attend to" Armenia and Azerbaijan. And
when dealing with these two countries, according to A. Iskandarian,
Russia cannot leave out the Nagorno Karabakh problem.

The political scientist added that after the armed conflict with
Georgia Russia lost its rating in the eyes of the international
community. And now, according to his observation, keeping the
Nagorno Karabakh conflict in the sphere of peaceful settlement,
the Russians try to prove to the world that they are for peaceful
settlement of problems and use force (as they did in Georgia) only
by way of exception.

A. Iskandarian said that a wave of panic rises in Armenian press after
each little event or statement of a secondary figure or rumors are
spread that allegedly they "sell" Karabakh. And, as the political
scientist concluded, it comes that the events are not so important
as the fuss kicked up around them.

NOVRUZ MAMMADOV: "MOSCOW DECLARATION CONTAINS BASIC PRINCIPLES FOR SOLUTION TO NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT"

Azeri Press Agency
Nov 3 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku. Lachin Sultanova-APA. "Moscow Declaration contains basic
principles for solution to Nagorno Karabakh conflict", Chief of the
International Relations Department of the President’s Office Novruz
Mammadov told APA.

The Department Chief said that US Co-chair Matthew Bryza also confirmed
the coinciding of the Declaration with the basic principles. "It is
very important document and beginning of the new phase of 14-year
long, complicated and difficult process of negotiations. The Moscow
Declaration made clear the negotiations held until now and determined
further duties of the sides".

Mammadov thinks that impact of the document on acceleration of the
process is possible. "I think the process should be accelerated because
of Russia’s active involvement in the process and the document signed
directly by the presidents. There is such point in the document that
the Minsk Group co-chairs will intensify their mediating mission
further. I think the processes have to lead to that".

CHURCHMEN ABROAD

Panorama.am
17:07 03/11/2008

>From October 30 to November 2, the Conference of European Churches
and the Union of Protestant Churches of Europe have conducted fourth
meeting on "Christening in Life of Our Churches". Mesrop Archbishop
Grigoryan the Patriarchal delegate of Central Europe took part in the
meeting. The speakers of the meeting prepared papers on the problems
of christening in the Orthodox and Protestant Churches reported the
press center of Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin.

According to the same source, on 28-29 October preparadeness meeting
of Leaders of World and Traditional religous third congress took
place in Alma-Ata (Kazakhstan). The leader of Gegharquniq diosece
T. Markos bishop Hovhannisyan took part in the congress.

TURKEY STUCK IN EU RUT
by Tony Barber

FT
November 3, 2008

The European Commission’s latest annual report on Turkey is striking
for its kind words on Turkish foreign policy and its harsher language
on internal Turkish political developments. It describes progress in
some areas towards meeting the criteria for joining the European Union,
and little or no progress in others.

In short, there is something for those who want Turkey one day to be
in the EU, something for those who do not, and a lot for those who
prefer to let the whole thing just drift along.

On foreign policy, the Commission welcomes Turkey’s mediation efforts
between Israel and Syria. It praises President Abdullah Gul for
breaking the ice in relations with Armenia by making the first visit
to Yerevan by a Turkish head of state. It also recognises Turkey’s
constructive role in proposing a Caucasus stability accord to ease
regional tensions after Russia’s invasion of Georgia.

On domestic affairs, though, the tone is different. "Despite its strong
political mandate, the government did not put forward a consistent
and comprehensive programme of political reforms… Overall, there
has been limited progress on public administration reform… No
progress has been made on strengthening parliamentary oversight
of the military budget… The government has failed to prepare a
comprehensive anti-corruption strategy…" And so on.

The truth is that Turkey’s accession negotiations are stuck in a rut.

They started in October 2005, but out of the 35 chapters, or policy
areas, that must be completed before a candidate country can join,
Turkey and the EU have opened only eight. Another eight were frozen
in December 2006 because of Turkey’s refusal to open its trade to
vessels from Cyprus.

Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel and other leaders scarcely disguise
their opposition to full Turkish EU membership.

All this is taking its toll on Turkey’s traditionally pro-western
political and business elites and on Turkish public opinion in general.

Turkey has been diversifying its diplomatic and commercial relations
and engaging more actively with its closest neighbours, with the
Turkic world of Central Asia and, increasingly, with Russia.

Too many EU leaders give the impression of using a 30-year-old
mental map of the world in which Turkey is just some turbulent,
backward appendage to the south-eastern corner of Europe. In Ankara
or Istanbul, such condescension does not go down well.

Iran willing to join talks on creation of Caucasus security zone

Moscow, Nov 1, IRNA
Iran-Russia-Lavrov

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that Iran has
showed interest in joining talks on creation of a Caucasus security
zone.

"Iran has showed interest in the discussion on creation of a Caucasus
security zone but Russia has not received any proposal on the issue
from Iran yet," Lavrov told journalists, adding that he had raised the
subject during talks with his Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki.

He reiterated, "Iran is interested in joining the talks. Iran has not
yet sent any proposals to us."
The Russian minister also spoke of Turkey’s Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Pact.

"Security issue in Caucasus is discussed in different forms," he said,
adding, "Particularly, Turkey took the initiative to establish
Stability & Cooperation Format in the Caucasus region.

WPS Agency, Russia
What the Papers Say (Russia)
October 29, 2008 Wednesday

THREE-WAY MEETING IN THE KREMLIN ON NOVEMBER 2:
Aliyev and Sargsian to visit Medvedev

by Arkady Dubov

Presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia will discuss
Nagorno-Karabakh; A three-way meeting is scheduled in Moscow on
November 2: the presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia will
discuss Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. Azerbaijan still says it
will never recognize the republic’s independence, while Armenia
insists on self-determination for the Karabakh people.

To all appearances, Ilham Aliyev’s first trip abroad after his
inauguration for a second term as president of Azerbaijan will be to
Moscow. A three-way meeting is scheduled there for November 2: the
presidents of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia will discuss
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. Preparations for this meeting
were mentioned by President Dmitri Medvedev when he visited Yerevan
last week.

The summit for three presidents, all of whom have taken office this
year, is drawing particular interest – depite the habitual pessimism
about the prospects of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict any
time soon. The reason is obvious: the five-day Russian-Georgian war
has shifted the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict from the "frozen" category
into the more dangerous category of conflicts that might "thaw out" or
even "heat up" rapidly.

This is evident from the international community’s obvious concern
about the South Caucasus situation, which has turned explosive
again. For example, in explaining the purposes of tactical live-fire
exercises carried out in the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
(NKR) on October 25, NKR Defense Minister Movses Akopian said: "We
won’t wait for the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan to attack us. Depending
on the situation, we shall launch an offensive to neutralize any
threat to our security." NKR President Bako Saakian said that if
necessary, military units would "not only take the hostilities into
enemy territory, but take them into the heart of Azerbaijan." Then
again, Saakian issued this warning after confirming that the NKR "is
prepared to start negotiations with Azerbaijan with no preconditions."
The only problem, said Saakian, is that "Nagorno-Karabakh is not a
full-fledged side in a negotiation process."

Some equally resolute rhetoric is being heard from Baku. In his
inauguration address on October 24, President Ilham Aliyev of
Azerbaijan said: "Nagorno-Karabakh will never be
independent. Azerbaijan will never recognize it – not in five, ten, or
twenty years. Never." The conflict can only be rseolved "only within
the framework of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity," said Aliyev:
"Our hopes haven’t faded yet. We still believe that negotiations could
lead to a fair solution."

Baku’s statement about being ready to negotiate, and Russia’s proposal
to hold a meeting in Moscow, have been greeted with concern in
Yerevan. This was expressed the other day by Stepan Grigorian, head of
the Globalization and Regional Cooperation Analytical Center: "In
order to have Azerbaijan export its oil and gas across Russian
territory, Moscow is prepared to sacrifice some positions on
Nagorno-Karabakh. This is obvious – and even surprising, since wishes
are usually expressed more modestly and less blatantly in diplomacy."
Grigorian says that "artificial acceleration" of the negotiation
process is "dangerous," because "Russia is aiming to solve its own
problem as fast as possible, since Washington will be more active in
this region after the US presidential election."

Another reason for wariness in Yerevan is related to suspicions that
the Moscow meeting will take Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation out
of the OSCE Minsk Group framework. According to Armenian analysts,
OSCE decision-making is based on consensus, enabling Armenia to block
any verdicts it doesn’t like; but other formats for internationalizing
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict – the United Nations, for example –
would not offer Armenia that opportunity.

Responding to these suspicions, Armenian President Serge Sargsian said
that "the one and only mediator is the OSCE Minsk Group." Sargsian
went on to say: "Armenia has never requested any other country to
perform a mediation mission, and attempts to create confusion don’t
help us at all." Analysts believe he was referring to reports that
Turkey is prepared to propose itself as chief mediator for
Armenian-Azeri talks.

Regarding the upcoming meeting in Moscow, Sargsian said that
"President Dmitri Medvedev Enhanced Coverage Linking Dmitri Medvedev’s
invitation and his activity on this issue are entirely natural," since
Russia Russia is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. According to our
sources, the three-way meeting will take place in the presence of
three Minsk Group co-chairs from Russia, the USA, and France. They may
participate in informal contacts between the presidents of Azerbaijan
and Armenia, as such representatives have done in similar meetings
before.

As President Sargsian said, the Kremlin talks on November 2 will be
based on the "Madrid principles" – ten written proposals formulated by
OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs for a meeting between the presidents of
Armenia and Azerbaijan in Madrid on November 29, 2006. The chief
proposals call for a referendum in Nagorno-Karabakh, the liberation of
Armenian-occupied districts of Azerbaijan around Nagorno-Karabakh, and
demilitarization of those districts. However, President Sargsian said
in the same TV interview that "the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can only
be regulated if Azerbaijan recognizes the Karabakh people’s right to
self-determination." Baku still regards this principle as
unacceptable, so the Moscow meeting doesn’t seem to promise any
sensational developments.

On the other hand, Sargsian’s words were primarily aimed at the
domestic audience in Armenia – to convince the public that the
interests of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians will not be
betrayed. However, Sargsian also named some other conditions for
conflict resolution, including "international organizations and the
world’s leading nations providing security guarantees for the Karabakh
people." The important question is how the Madrid principles might be
implemented, in what order, and what conditions may be tied to them.

Source: Vremya Novostei, No. 201, October 29, 2008, p. 5

Translated by InterContact

AssA-Irada, Azerbaijan
October 30, 2008 Thursday

YEREVAN RULES OUT ANKARAS MEDIATION IN GARABAGH TALKS

Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian has said that Turkey might
interfere with the Armenia-Azerbaijan Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh
conflict by exerting influence on Azerbaijan, but the country is not
considered a mediator in peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Nalbandian told a news conference on Thursday that Yerevan continued
efforts to better relations with Turkey. Improving Turkey-Armenia
relations is important not only for Armenia but also for the entire
region. Armenia has never turned down dialogue with Turkey and is
ready to settle any problems. Yerevan is in talks with Turkey without
leveling conditions, he said. The diplomat said the international
community was also interested in bettering relations between Armenia
and Turkey. Yerevan does not hold talks with Turkey for the sake of
appearance. This does not even suit us.*

AZERBAIJAN’S STALLED ARMY REFORM

International Crisis Group
=5751&l=1&m=1
Oct 29 2008
Belgium

Baku/Tbilisi/Brussels, 29 October 2008: Reform of Azerbaijan’s
controversial army is stalling for lack of political will.

Azerbaijan: Defence Sector Management and Reform, the latest
policy briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the
difficulties the country faces in upgrading its military. Oil wealth
has been poured into a defence budget that has increased more than
ten-fold in five years, raising concerns President Ilham Aliyev might
eventually choose war with Armenia to recover Nagorno-Karabakh. But
reforms could also make the army more accountable, less corrupt and
a contributor to democratisation.

Unwillingness to take tough decisions, including how far to cooperate
with and accept advice from NATO while balancing relations with
Russia and Iran, has led to stalemate in efforts to reduce widespread
inefficiency, corruption and mistreatment in the army. For now at
least, the delicate military balance with Armenia probably still holds.

"Defence sector reform should be an integral part of an overall
democratic process, said Lawrence Sheets, Crisis Group Caucasus
Project Director. "If Azerbaijan is committed to thorough reform of the
military, it will need to change substantially in many other areas of
government and society as well. But parliament has failed to oversee
military expenditure and has no authority to summon power ministers,
including the defence minister, to report on their activities".

A modern and efficient army, even if subject to democratic, civilian
control, is not unproblematic while the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh
remains deeply resented. But ability to hold leaders to account for
expenditures and policy priorities at least has the potential to make
the system more responsible and predictable.

Azerbaijan needs to improve dissemination of defence information and
expand awareness about its increased military spending. NATO, which is
helping with its military reform, should facilitate dialogue between
the militaries of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. The international
community, including the EU, U.S. and Russia should push the parties
harder to resolve their conflict peacefully.

"It makes sense both for Azerbaijan to pursue the kind of deep reforms
of structures, laws and procedures necessary to build a truly excellent
military and for NATO and other democratic states to provide a degree
of assistance", said Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group Europe Program
Director. "However, the fundamental need is for all who profess an
interest in stability in these areas to give more priority to ensuring
that it is diplomacy, not war that provides the answer to the still
dangerous Nagorno-Karabakh conflict".

Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 2 541 1635 Kimberly
Abbott (Washington) +1 202 785 1601 To contact Crisis Group media
please click here *Read the full Crisis Group report on our website:

ARMENIAN, ALBANIAN FMS AGREE TO DEVELOP BILATERAL COOPERATION

PanARMENIAN.Net
24.10.2008 15:56 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian,
currently in Tirana attending the summit of BSEC Foreign Ministers,
met Wednesday with his Albanian counterpart Lulzim Basha to discuss
bilateral relations and ways to encourage political, economic and
cultural cooperation.

Edward Nalbandian invited his Albanian counterpart to Armenia. The
delegation of the Albanian MFA will visit Armenia in the near future
to organize signing of several agreements on bilateral cooperation
in various fields, the RA MFA press office reports.