As Armenia deals with a refugee influx triggered by a military shelling campaign of a breakaway region by its rival Azerbaijan, Canada's first ambassador to the country has landed in Yerevan and received his credentials.
"It's a great honour to take this post as Canada's first resident ambassador, first in what will be a long line as we continue to build upon our very strong partnership," Andrew Turner tells Armenia's Foreign Affairs Minister Ararat Mirzoyan in an official video released by the Armenian government Wednesday afternoon.
More than 100,000 ethnic Armenian refugees fled to Armenia in September after Azerbaijan began what it called an "anti-terror" shelling operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. The long-disputed region is recognized as part of Azerbaijan under international law, but historically has had a majority Armenian population.
Turner's appointment was announced last month and his arrival in Yerevan follows a joint declaration, signed by Canada, the United States and more than 30 other countries, that was presented by France at the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva last week.
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It urged Azerbaijan to "ensure the rights and security of those Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians who remain and to promptly create conditions for the voluntary, safe, dignified and sustainable return of those who wish to go home."
The statement also called for dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan to guarantee a lasting peace in the Caucasus.
But a senior Canadian diplomatic source told CBC News there's little chance the refugees who fled Nagorno-Karabakh will ever return home.
"The confidence between the populations is low after all these wars. People are afraid for their safety, their future. And to convince them that they may come back safely will not be easy. It will require from Azerbaijan not only a lot of declarations but a concrete plan," said the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they're not authorized to comment publicly on the matter.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two wars over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan gained a decisive upper hand after the shelling campaign in September, which caused most of the region's Armenians to seek refuge in neighbouring Armenia. That campaign followed a blockade of food and medical supplies entering Nagorno-Karabakh that lasted more than nine months.
The government of Armenia and some international observers have accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing. Local journalists have reported civilians have told them of family members who were killed during Azerbaijan's campaign.
Azerbaijan has insisted it conducted an "anti-terror" operation and has said any Armenians who wish to live under its rule may return with full respect for their rights.
Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev travelled to Nagorno-Karabakh's deserted former capital of Stepanakert this weekend. A social media video publicized by his government showed him stepping over the breakaway region's flag.
Aliyev, dressed in military fatigues, gave a speech in front of a building that used to house the former ethnic Armenian government of Nagorno-Karabakh. "They are having tea now in a detention facility," he said, referring to some of the building's former occupants, now under arrest.
He accused the former regional government of not taking him seriously when he said Nagorno-Karabakh would return to Azerbaijan's control.
"I do what I say and everyone knows it, including Armenia. And they should not forget it either," he said.
People run from gunfire and explosions in Stepanakert, called Khankendi by Azerbaijan, in the Nagorno-Karabakh region on September 19, 2023, in this screengrab obtained from a handout video. (ARTSAKH PUBLIC TV via REUTERS)
The Canadian diplomatic source said goodwill would be needed on all sides in a future negotiation process.
"If there's an inch of possibility that these people will come back home, safely, with their property, and with some political condition that would allow them to control their schools and this kind of thing, it would be good," the source said.
Last month's fighting ended with local ethnic Armenian defence forces handing over their weapons to Azerbaijan and the de facto Armenian government of the region, unrecognized by any country, stating it would dissolve itself by the end of this year.
Local authorities said at least 200 people were killed in the campaign.
While the Canadian government source is expressing the hope that Azerbaijan will sit down for negotiations, some are less optimistic.
"What [the return of ethnic Armenians to Nagorno-Karabakh] is going to require is not just policy change, but a change in government," said Toronto-based immigration lawyer Aidan Simardone, who has a masters in global affairs from the Munk School of Global Affairs and has observed the tensions in the region for years. "President Aliyev has never demonstrated his respect for Armenians."
Simardone also called for Europe to stop importing gas from Azerbaijan, and for the United States to stop selling weapons to the country.
"I think what we need to do is not just punish, but also say why it's being done," he said. "If Azerbaijan wants to deal with the West, it has to ensure the respect of Armenians to return."
Simardone also warned the conflict is not over, pointing to recent statements from the government of Azerbaijan referring to a strip of land within Armenia's borders in the south that would connect Azerbaijan from Nagorno Karabakh to an Azerbaijani enclave on Armenia's west called Nakhchivan.
"I think this is going to be pushed," he said, adding that if Azerbaijan makes a grab at that land, "the West is just going to flee."
In a statement, Global Affairs Canada said that "Armenia's territorial integrity must be respected, and Canada supports ongoing negotiations, based on principles of the non-use of force, territorial integrity and self-determination in resolving the conflict."
The NDP and Bloc Québécois have joined the Armenian National Committee of Canada, a Canadian-Armenian political advocacy group, in calling on the federal government to sanction Azerbaijan.
Asked about sanctions at a news conference on Wednesday, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly repeated her previous stance that everything is on the table.
"We always say that all countries in the world need to respect the borders of their neighbours and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbours," she said. "That's the same for Armenia. That's the same for Azerbaijan."
Joly also said she will be traveling to Armenia in the next few weeks and would have more to say then.