Author: Markos Nalchajian

By Andrea Gagliarducci

Editorial

Security environment of Armenia is changing

18 MARCH 2018

A
number of events in March demonstrate the continuing deepening of the crisis in
international relations directly affecting the security interests of the Republic
of Armenia. First of all, this concerns the sharpening of the military rhetoric
of the US and Russia regarding the development of the military-political
situation in Syria.

There is no
less rigidity in the positions of key regional powers: Turkey, Iran and Saudi
Arabia. The offensive operations of the Syrian Army in the suburbs of
Damascus-Ghuta, as well as the deepening of the position of the Turkish army in
Syrian Afrin, provoked claims and demands of all the players from one another.
It came to the point that the United States and Russia declared their readiness
to use weapons if the situation does not develop at their will. Equally
disturbing are the demands of Iran and Saudi Arabia to Turkey to stop the
operation in Afrin. It can already be asserted that the trilateral format of
cooperation between Russia, Iran and Turkey to resolve the situation in Syria
is under threat of disintegration. With the continuation of this trend, the
balance of power in the region can undergo serious changes. This will directly
affect the regional policy of all powers.

Regarding the
problems affecting the security of Armenia, one can say that there is a
noticeable polarization of the positions of Russia and the Western powers on
the issue of military-political cooperation with the countries of the South
Caucasus. It's necessary to single out a number of important recent statements
here. The US threatened to sanction those countries that will have significant
deals on the purchase of Russian arms. The chief of the CSTO's main
headquarters stated that this organization will not help Nagorno-Karabakh in
case of war. These statements were followed by two important events. On March
14, at a briefing in the Armenian parliament, the chairman of the Committee on
International Affairs of the Council of Federation of Russia, K. Kosachev,
stated that "after 2016 Russia has seriously changed its military policy
on the Karabakh conflict. Russia is only fulfilling the contracts concluded
before April 2016." Two days earlier, on March 12, the Azerbaijani army
launched large-scale military exercises with military firing and a
"counter-offensive" program. Nagorno-Karabakh also began tank
exercises. That is, everyone in the region demonstrated their positions.
However, it was noteworthy that the President of the Republic of Artsakh Bako
Sahakyan visited the US Congress on March 14, where, at the reception given to
him, Sahakyan stated: "The development and deepening of relations with the
United States of America was, is and will be one of the fundamental directions
of our foreign policy." And no less interesting, Armenian-British
military-political consultations took place in London on March 12-13, following
which the sides signed a plan of cooperation between the two military departments
for 2018, which provides for more than 20 joint events in the educational
centers of Armenia and Great Britain. These events took place against the
backdrop of Britain's new stringent demands on Russia. It's a well-known
statement of the British Prime Minister T. May on March 14 on the measures of
"punishment" of Russia on its involvement in the poisoning of S.
Skripal.

As they say:
everything is untwisted and confused definitively. One could expect sharp
reactions from Azerbaijan and the future flirtations of Russia. And so it was.
US Ambassador to Azerbaijan Robert Sekuta was summoned to the Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry, where he received a note of protest sent by the Azerbaijani
Foreign Ministry to the US Department of State. On March 15, the Azerbaijani side
demonstratively didn't withdraw the OSCE mission to the planned monitoring of
the OSCE on the contact line of the troops. And on March 15, Russian MFA
spokesperson Maria Zakharova said during a briefing on Thursday that there is
no representation of the Artsakh Republic in Moscow. That is, Russia once again
"washed its hands" of Nagorno-Karabakh within a month. Armenia and
Artsakh necessarily have to deepen relations with the West — Russia by its
actions pushes them to it. In principle, Russia benefits from these trends, as
they give it additional opportunities to strengthen its influence on
Azerbaijan. But for the time being these tendencies are unusual for everyone.
The security environment for all countries in the region is becoming blurred –
who and how will behave in the future is not entirely clear. So far, we see
only the general desire to prevent any changes. An example is the joint
statement on supporting the sovereignty and inviolability of the state borders
of four states, made by Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia on March 15.