Getting Ready For Elections

GETTING READY FOR ELECTIONS

February 25, 2010

According to our information, the owner of Flash company Barsegh
Beglaryan has decided to found a political party. It is not Barsegh
Beglaryan’s decision but the wish of the authorities. The authorities
want to have many political parties to rely on before the upcoming
parliamentary and presidential elections, and one of these projects
will be carried out by Barsegh Beglaryan. Currently he has a foundation
called "Barepasht Serund", the office of which is located in the
same building at Koryun 19A address where the offices of the first
president Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Armenian National Congress are
located as well. By the way, Barsegh Beglaryan has provided another
party with office premises in the same building, which may join the
party to be established by him. The goal of these steps is to attract
the youth and students, and they have already started their work.

Definitely Barsegh Beglaryan’s new party will be established based
on the mentioned foundation.

http://168.am/en/articles/7185

Men Indicted Over Assault On Oppositionists

MEN INDICTED OVER ASSAULT ON OPPOSITIONISTS
Irina Hovannisian

le/1968511.html
25.02.2010

Two men will go on trial soon for their alleged role in an attack
on young opposition activists that campaigned for the opposition
candidate in a recent parliamentary by-election in Yerevan.

The more than a dozen young members of the opposition Armenian National
Congress (HAK) were beaten up by a larger group of men on December
27 as they urged residents of a central Yerevan constituency to vote
for Nikol Pashinian, a jailed opposition leader, in the January
10 ballot. Five of them suffered serious injuries and required
hospitalization.

The HAK blamed the attack on Pashinian’s main government rival,
Ara Simonian, and the local chapter of the ruling Republican Party
of Armenia (HHK). Both Simonian and the HHK denied any involvement.

The Armenian police said on Thursday that they have charged two
local residents, Vahan Nadaghian and David Simonian, with provoking
the incident and will send the criminal case to a court in the coming
days. A police spokesman told RFE/RL that the two government loyalists
have been charged under Criminal Code articles that carry fines and
up to two months’ imprisonment.

HAK representatives shrugged off the indictments, saying that Nadaghian
and Simonian should have been facing more serious accusations. They
also said that the police have failed to identify other attackers.

According to Armen Khachatrian, the HAK’s top legal counsel, the
lawyers of the injured opposition youths will therefore demand that
the police launch a new and "full-fledged" investigation into the
incident. Khachatrian also claimed that the indicted men coordinated
the alleged vote rigging and intimidation of opposition proxies in
two polling stations on election day.

Official vote results gave victory to the pro-government candidate.

Pashinian and the HAK refused to concede defeat, alleging widespread
fraud.

The election was also criticized by the U.S. Embassy in Yerevan. The
Armenian authorities insisted, however, that it was largely democratic.

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/artic

Power Is Confused

POWER IS CONFUSED

hos16935.html
11:03:49 – 24/02/2010

Representative of the ARF Supreme Body, Head of the NA commission
on foreign relations Armen Rustamyan yesterday answered Lragir.am
questions.

Initially, it was stated that Armenia is not going to ratify
the Armenian and Turkish protocols as long as Turkey does not do
that. Now the protocols are in the Armenian National Assembly. Is
it nevertheless possible that Armenia ratifies the protocols first
to show to the international society that it has fulfilled its duty
and the ball is in the Turkish field?

I do not think Armenia will ratify the protocols first. My opinion is
that it will be a wrong step. On the contrary, we now need additional
tools, if necessary, to suspend or terminate the Armenian-Turkish
process. In our opinion, this necessity is already felt for a
long time but nevertheless we need to fit this logic. It is my deep
conviction that the power is confused, and these steps mean that they
are entangled in their tactics.

Will this process reach its logical conclusion? Will the Armenian
and Turkish protocols be ratified? And will the border be opened?

The logic shows that the process has reached the point from where
it was started. As the Turkish side announced, the border will be
opened when the cause of its closure disappears. As they think, the
cause is the NKR issue. That is, they returned to the starting point
and say that we are talking about the phenomenon -one nation – two
states, and we do not need to deceive ourselves by convincing that the
Turkish-Azeri tandem does not exist. Both countries issue statements in
this logic affirming that the NKR issue settlement is to be speeded up.

Republican members have repeatedly stated that they do not take for
serious those statements.

In this case, they have to admit that the process has failed.

Interview by ARMAN GALOYAN

http://www.lragir.am/engsrc/politics-lra

New Azeri Law Enrages Journalists

NEW AZERI LAW ENRAGES JOURNALISTS
By Seymur Kazimov in Baku

Institute for War and Peace Reporting IWPR
Feb 24 2010
UK

Independent media say ban on unauthorised recordings will hamper
reporting.

Some journalists in Azerbaijan say changes to media legislation could
limit freedom of expression.

The amendments – passed by parliament on February 12 after they were
approved last March in a referendum on a number of different subjects
– forbid reporters from recording anyone’s voice or image without
their permission.

The media law changes were little noticed at the time, as most
attention around the referendum focused on a constitutional reform
allowing the president to run for re-election as often as he wants.

Arif Aliyev, chairman of the New Generation journalists’ union, said
the amendments – the tenth alterations to the media law since it was
adopted in 1999 – could restrict freedom of speech in the country.

"This is the most negative change that has been made to the law in
the last ten years. When this question was raised in the referendum,
the government promised it would allow exceptions in some cases –
but this law shows that no exceptions were made, and the ban for
journalists is absolute," he said.

"This means that a journalist, even at normal events, cannot film as
he wishes."

He suspected the amended law, which awaits presidential approval,
would lead to more criminal cases against journalists.

"Now anyone who wants to can take a journalist to court just for being
photographed, for example at the launch of a book. It is laughable,"
he said.

Rauf Arigoflu, the editor-in-chief of Yeni Musavat newspaper, agreed,
"These amendments were made specifically to create more and more
obstacles to the work of the independent and opposition media."

He said the amendments would also serve to wipe out investigative
journalism in the country. He said he would be forced to adapt to
the new law and not create problems for his newspaper’s journalists.

Not all media professionals agreed with their protests, however.

Vusala Mahirgizi, general director of Azeri Press, a pro-governmental
private news organisation, said the changes were fine.

She said that journalists had lost their chance to object when they
did not protest at the time of the referendum.

"Then most journalists focused on different issues, such as on the
point removing restrictions on the re-election of the president. And
I don’t understand why we should now protest against parliament’s
decision," she said.

"The question was raised at a referendum, and the will of the people
was expressed … In the legal sense there are no problems. We are
all obliged to respect the law, and not to go outside it."

Mubariz Qurbanli, a member of the parliament’s committee on legal
policy, said the changes were intended to protect citizens’ right
to privacy.

"Here we are intending to prevent interference in private life. These
bans do not relate to individuals’ social-political activities,"
he said.

Bakhtiyar Sadigov, the editor-in-chief of Azerbaijan, the parliament’s
own newspaper, agreed with him.

"The changes to the constitution were made by the will of the people.

The population voted for these changes," he said.

"I am personally opposed to having my picture taken without my
permission, or with someone interfering with my private life. This
is a violation of an individual’s rights.

"Journalists often interfere with our personal lives. We are Azeris,
we have our own mentality, and we do not agree with our personal
lives being on general display."

Opposition members of parliament, however, said they did not believe
the law would be used purely to deal with privacy.

Igbal Agazade, chairman of the opposition Hope party in parliament,
said the law would make cracking down on free speech much easier.

"A few people claim these bans just apply to people’s personal lives,
and do not relate to social-political life. But all these assurances
are not reflected in the law. It will be a lot easier to keep society
under control and restrict information, and that is the point of
these changes," he said.

Seymur Kazimov is a freelance journalist.

Val Avery remembered as actor personified

Val Avery remembered as actor personified
Film career spanned half a century
by Tom Vartabedian

Ö84C158-1BB1-11DF-86110003FF3452C2&pg=2
P ublished: Wednesday February 17, 2010

New York – Whether he played a cop, thug, Mafia kingpin, a traveling
corset salesman or a loveable Italian grandfather, rest assured. Val
Avery, born Sebouh Der Abrahamian, always put his best acting foot
forward.

Throughout a film career that spanned 50 years, Avery was not only
your personified journeyman’s player but treated every role with
Oscar-like tendencies.

For that reason alone, he landed some of the best parts by the best
people in the business — guys like John Cassavetes, Ben Gazzara and
Peter Falk with whom he socialized at the Lion’s Head, a popular
Greenwich Village tavern close to his home.

Avery died Dec. 12 at age 85, leaving behind a legacy that stands
alone by any other Armenian-American in the industry. In all, he made
more than 100 films and appeared on television over 300 times in
series and dramas. Retirement was not in his persona.

"In the early years, there were times when it was rough, times when I
thought of packing it in, and then a job would open up," he said in an
interview shortly before his death. "And it would lead to another role
and yet another until I had a career and a life."

Of all the roles, none matched his portrayal of the despicable Talaat
Pasha in the 1982 Haig Toukhanian film, "Assignment Berlin."

An Armenian playing the part of a maligned Turkish assassin who
instigated the 1915 genocide?

"He had no misgivings about that, none that I know about," said his
daughter Margot Avery, herself an actress. "I believe he was very
pleased that the project was being done and to be playing the bad guy.
My father had that special Armenian hatred for the man and what better
way to show the world his infamy. One of the pictures up on the wall
in his personal gallery was of him in that role of Talaat Pasha. My
father told me once that he sometimes dreamed in Armenian."

Avery never separated his Armenian life from Hollywood, not on purpose
anyway. He changed his name as nearly every actor did prior to the
1970s. But most who knew him recognized his deep-rooted Armenian
heritage.

They even wrote him an Armenian detective character once (Aram
Zacharian) that was supposed to spin off into his own TV series
"Quincy M.E." It never got off the ground, something to do with a
management change at the network.

With Mike Connors, Avery performed a number of "Mannix" roles, was
close friend to director Dick Sarafian and Peter Palian, a documentary
filmmaker associated with the Shah of Iran at one time.

Arlene Francis and husband Martin Gable were longtime friends through
the Players’ Club, as was William Saroyan. The Pulitzer Prize-winning
writer wrote Avery a short play called "Havoc" back in 1975 to be a
possible companion piece when Ben Gazzara was about to do "Huey" on
Broadway, only to be rejected. Word had it there wasn’t enough in it
for Gazzara.

But all was not lost. Avery performed it years later at The Bay Street
Theater in Sag Harbor, NY, during its inaugural season.

Avery also told the story of attending the opener of "The Music Man"
with Saroyan and taking him backstage to meet star Robert Preston.

"He said it was amazing to see two men so impressed with one another,"
the daughter recalled.

Among the famous actors he appeared with were: Rod Steiger, Humphrey
Bogart, Paul Newman, Steve McQueen, Peter Falk, Jack Klugman, Al
Pachino, Jackie Gleason, Rodney Dangerfield, Sylvester Stallone, John
Belushi, Robert Redford, Teri Garr, Henry Winkler, Sally Fields, Burt
Reynolds, Burt Young, Sidney Poitier, Yul Brynner, Charles Bronson,
Art Carney, Anthony Quinn, and Mickey Rooney.

Avery would slip out of his usual "tough-guy "groove. Sidney Poitier,
with whom he had worked in "Edge of the City" (1957), cast him as a
bumbling police lieutenant in "Let’s Do It Again" (1975). In another
episode of "The Odd Couple," he played a dentist who invents a
superglue. In the Cheech and Chong film "Up in Smoke," he had the role
of a boss inside an upholstery factory.

One of his last, and more favorite parts, was that of a beloved
Italian grandfather in "Over the River and Through the Woods," which
appeared Off-Broadway in 1998.

Fortified with a drink, he enjoyed fixing innocent bystanders with a
look and then delivering his classic line, "I’ll eat your liver." In
truth, the man never stopped acting, even in real life.

Avery grew up in West Philadelphia, PA, in the old neighborhood around
63rd and Locust Streets, which was then comprised of Armenian, Jewish
and Italian immigrants. He acted in productions of the Armenian Youth
Theater. After serving as an Army flight instructor during World War
2, he enrolled in the Bessie V. Hicks School of Drama in Philadelphia.

He was a member of the Philadelphia AYF during its inception years.
Together with his brother Peter "Stucey" Der Abrahamian, they were
familiar fixtures at Armenian dances and other socials.

Avery’s dad Megerdich immigrated from Sebastia in 1907 and was able to
bring his brothers to the United States. Megerdich’s father, Bedros
Der Abrahamian, a Der Hayr at the Church of the Holy Mother of God in
Sivas, was martyred during the genocide.

Avery’s mother Arousiag survived the massacre as a young wife and
mother after being saved by an Arab in the Syrian Desert. She brought
her sisters to America and started a new family life in Philadelphia.

Her life was portrayed in the factitious story "Mamigon," penned by
writer Jack Hashian, Avery’s cousin, who also wrote the classic spy
thriller "The Eiger Sanction," under the pen name Trevanian.

Avery was married to Margot Stevenson for 56 years, a stage actress
mostly known for her role as Margot Lane in the radio show "The
Shadow." Best man at their wedding was actor Rod Steiger.

Their life of caring for one another drew no boundaries.

"Attracted at a young age by his swarthy looks, wavy black hair and
piercing blue eyes, their differences in background and demeanor made
for a great complement to a loving relationship," said his nephew, Dro
Abrahamian. "Their daughter (Margot) cared for them both over the last
few years when they were bedridden."

Avery was seen by the Philadelphia Armenian community as "the local
boy who made good." During the 1960s and 1970s especially, you could
hear at church halls from Philly to Boston to Detroit how someone
caught a rerun of "Columbo" or a movie featuring Avery.

"When he was not on a set, he made appearances at Armenian functions
like the AYF Olympics or the old Philadelphia ARF-sponsored Armenian
Week festivities in Atlantic City, NJ, or an April 24th rally in New
York," said his nephew.

There’s a story about how he attended the 1959 AYF Olympics in Philly
and there was an evening at the theater where funny skits were
performed. Avery and his buddy George Dombalagian were reigning
champs, though improvisation was not exactly a forte.

Avery was versed in both Armenian and Turkish. Among his many travels,
he visited Turkey and Sivas during a time when it was uncommon and
perilous. He also visited with the Mekhitarists in Venice (where his
father studied) and for years supported Camp Hayastan in Franklin, MA.

He was an avid chef and wine connoisseur, often concocting Armenian
dishes remembered from his youth when doing a show or entertaining his
peers.

"He wasn’t a Hollywood star by any means but one of the
hardest-working, familiar, sustainable and longest-lasting actors you
would find," said his nephew. "Val would constantly view his work as
just that and didn’t like talking about the entertainment business in
a glamorous fashion.

Top Val Avery films
1. "Hud" (1963) – ranch hand Jose

2. "Hombre" (1967) – stationmaster Delgato

3. "The Laughing Policeman" (1973) – police inspector

4. "Donnie Brasco" (1997) – gangster Trafficante

Others
5. "Johnny Straccato" – TV series with John Cassavetes

6. "The Harder They Fall" (1956) – Humphrey Bogart’s last film

7. "The Magnificent Seven" (1960) — John Sturges’ classic western

8. "The Anderson Tapes" (1971) – Mafia psychopath Socks Parelli

9. "The Pope of Greenwich Village" (1984) – Mafia godfather

10. "Too Late Blues" (1961) — Frielobe

11. "Faces" (1968)

12. "Minnie and Moskowitz" (1971)

13. "The Killing of a Chinese Bookie" (1976)

14. "Gloria" (1980)

15. "Up in Smoke" (1978)

16. "Assignment Berlin" (1982)

17. "Requiem for a Heavyweight" (1962)

18. "Easy Money" (1983)

Frequent TV appearances
"The Fugitive"

"Gunsmoke"

"Columb o"

"The Twilight Zone"

"The Odd Couple"

"The Munsters"

"Law and Order"

Off-Broadway Stage

"Over the River and Through the Woods" (1998)

http://reporter.am/index.cfm?objectid

Crime Rate In Yerevan Up By 1/3 In 2009

CRIME RATE IN YEREVAN UP BY 1/3 IN 2009

ArmInfo
2010-02-19 12:25:00

ArmInfo. In 2009 crime rate in Yerevan was up by 1/3, Major General
Nerses Nazaryan, Head of Yerevan Police Department, said in a press
conference on Friday.

He said that last year 7026 crimes were registered, which is by
2210 cases more than in 2008. Half of the crimes registered in the
country were committed in Yerevan. Crime rate grew mainly because
of property crimes and offences against a person. The number of
weapons confiscated from the population doubled (353 weapons). At
the same time, N. Nazaryan said crime detection grew to 71.5% and
murder detection totaled 60%. Over the last year, 91 criminal gangs
comprising over 240 people were arrested. Those gangs committed 416
crimes. Another 50 offences were registered in public areas, including
13 in the areas patrolled by the police. Major General Nazaryan said
that activity of the Police Patrol Service needs improvement.

Resumption Of Hostilities In Karabakh Conflict Ruled Out

RESUMPTION OF HOSTILITIES IN KARABAKH CONFLICT RULED OUT

news.az
Feb 19 2010
Azerbaijan

Iran is for the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

Possible resumption of hostilities in Karabakh conflict area is
ruled out, Iranian ambassador in Armenia Seid Ali Sagayan told a news
conference in Yerevan.

He said Iran is for the peaceful resolution of the conflict and
it is ready to contribute to settlement of relations with Armenia
and Azerbaijan. Speaking about Iran’s position regarding possible
dislocation of peacekeeping forces in the liberated areas, he noted
that the issue of these lands must be settled by the conflict parties.

Yet, Iran, as a country, that has common borders with Nagorno Karabakh
will voice its comments and position regarding the peacekeeping troops
that will possibly be dislocated in this area.

Armenia’S Economy To Grow More Than 2 Pct In 2010 -IMF

ARMENIA’S ECONOMY TO GROW MORE THAN 2 PCT IN 2010 -IMF
By Hasmik Lazarian

Forex Pros
Feb 17 2010

YEREVAN, Feb 17 (Reuters) – Armenia’s economy should recover and grow
by more than 2 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said
on Wednesday, but also urged the country to slash its fiscal deficit.

"After a very challenging year in 2009 output appears to have
stabilised and real GDP is expected to recover in 2010," Mark Lewis,
head of an IMF mission to Armenia, told reporters at the end of a
two-week visit to the country.

The former Soviet republic saw GDP contract 14.4 percent in 2009 due
to a sharp fall in remittances and exports, a slump in the construction
sector and a recession in close economic ally Russia.

The government forecasts only 1.2 percent economic growth this year.

Lewis said the mission would recommend the IMF board to approve the
next tranche of an $827 million loan facility approved last year,
which will be worth $74 million.

"We don’t anticipate any obstacles," Lewis said about the next
disbursement which is due in March.

The loan, initially of $540 million but topped up in June last year,
was secured in March after the Armenian central bank decided to float
the dram currency. Armenia has already received half of the money.

Lewis said the IMF recommends that Armenia get its fiscal deficit
down to 6 percent of GDP this year from 7.5 percent in 2009.

The Washington-based organisation expects annual inflation in Armenia
of 6 percent in 2010, Lewis said, down from 6.5 percent last year.

"With sound policies in place it (inflation) should return to the
target range in the near future," he said.The central bank targets
4 percent inflation, with a deviation of 1.5 percentage points.

The central bank on Tuesday raised its refinancing rate by 50 basis
points, its second such move this year, to 6 percent to try and get
inflation back within its target. (Reporting by Hasmik Lazarian;
writing by Margarita Antidze in Tbilisi, editing by Lidia Kelly,
Susan Fenton)

Georgia To Demand From Russia USD 40 Billion For Damage

GEORGIA TO DEMAND FROM RUSSIA USD 40 BILLION FOR DAMAGE

/PanARMENIAN.Net/
17.02.2010 15:56 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Georgia intends to sue Russia for the damage
estimated in tens of billions dollars which, according to Tbilisi,
Moscow has caused by its actions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia since
the early 1990-ies.

Georgia intends to prove the guilt of Russia in international courts
not only in the events of August 2008, but also in provoking the
Georgian-Ossetian and Georgian-Abkhazian conflicts after the collapse
of the Soviet Union.

According to the georgian media ("News Time" newspaper), a temporary
parliamentary commission on restoration of territorial integrity,
headed by Shota Malashkhia, was ordered to calculate the amount of
the damage. According to him, a state commission will be established
soon to double-check the calculations, and then make claims and deal
with relevant international organizations.

According to MP, the damage caused before 1998 has been calculated,
it amounts to USD 20 billion. The compensation includes the alleged
damage caused by activities of Russian companies in Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. Claims have already been made to the Strasbourg Court
of Human Rights about the loss of property by Georgian refugees.

The South Ossetian armed conflict broke out in August of 2008 between
Georgia on one side, and Russia, with unrecognized republics of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia on the other.

On the night of 8 August 2008 (0:06 a.m.), Georgia launched a
large-scale military attack of the capital of South Ossetia Tskhinval
and adjacent territories. In several hours Georgian armored units and
infantry attached the city. The official casus belli, as the Georgian
side claims, was the violation of the cease-fire by the South Ossetia,
which claims that Georgia was first open fire.

On August 8 2008 (at 2:59 p.m.) Russia officially came down on
the side of South Osetia in the frame of the operation aimed at
compelling Georgia to peace. On August 9, 2008 Abkhazia joined the
conflict under the military assistance agreements between the members
of the Commonwealth of Unrecognized States. On August 12, 2008 Russia
officially announced the successful completion of the operation aimed
to force Georgian authorities to peace, on August 13, 2008 Abkhazia
officially announced the completion of the operation to oust Georgian
troops from the Kodori Gorge, after which active hostilities ended.

Between August 14 and 16, 2008 leaders of the states involved in
hostilities, signed a peace plan for settling the Georgian-South
Ossetian conflict ("Medvedev-Sarkozy plan").Georgia does not regard
the conflict settled, explaining that Russia failed fulfill the
signed agreements.

BAKU: Thomas Ambrosio: "Unless Armenia Softens Its Negotiating Posit

THOMAS AMBROSIO: "UNLESS ARMENIA SOFTENS ITS NEGOTIATING POSITION WITH AZERBAIJAN, ALL OF THE TALK OF PEACE BEING CONTAGIOUS IS LARGELY JUST TALK"

APA
Feb 17 2010
Azerbaijan

Washington. Isabel Levine – APA. APA’s Washington correspondent’s
interviewed famous American analyst on the ethnic conflicts and
international relations Thomas Ambrosio, director of the International
Studies Major of North Dakota State University.

– International moderators are still optimistic about the salvation
of Nagorno-Karabakh? What is the main reason why Karabakh and other
frozen conflicts are still not resolved?

– The current momentum of the frozen conflicts, based in large part
upon the pattern since the mid-1990s, is that the status quo is most
likely to prevail. This will be the case unless an outside force —
namely, Russia or the US — changes things. The US is unlikely to do
anything except continue the pattern of "supporting the process".

Since there has been no real progress on this process — largely
because the perspectives, interests, and solutions of the two sides
are so diametrically opposed — this amounts largely to empty words
and a desire to appear ‘engaged’. For Russia, the frozen nature of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict suits its interests: Armenia is dependent
Russia since the threat of Russian intervention is likely enough to
stay the hand of Baku, which is wealthier, better-equipped, and more
populous; Azerbaijan’s power in the region is weakened by the fact
that it has one-seventh of its territory under occupation.

Divide-and-conquer is an old, but effective, strategy of increasingly
one’s relative power and Moscow plays this card well.

– It’s more than one year since Barack Obama became a president. Many
experts say that the current administration differs from its
predessers, especially in terms of relationship with Russia and frozen
conflicts. How can you describe this difference between Obama and
Bush administrations?

– First of all, I would argue that the "reboot" or "reset" of bilateral
relations was a public relations stunt designed to make it appear as
if the Obama administration is the ‘un-Bush’. By this, I mean that
the administration has sought in nearly every case to present itself
as fundamentally different than its predecessor.

Initially, this was demonstrated by an almost blind reversal of
Bush-era policies — simply because the Bush administration supported
one position, the Obama administration felt that it had to reverse
course. This has calmed down a bit now, but it is still a noticeable
pattern in this administration. So, the attempt to reset with Russia
fits into this general trend — engage all of those states with which
the US had rocky relations and downgrade ties with those that which
the Bush administration had a good relationship.

In terms of the specifics of the US-Russian relationship and its
implications for the former Soviet Union, my observation is that the
Obama administration has effectively acceded to a Russian sphere of
influence within the region. I feel that they are doing this because
they believe (wrongly, in my opinion), that if they "engage" Moscow
they will be able to get the Kremlin’s help on a variety of other
issues (terrorism, Iran, etc.).

However, they fundamentally misunderstand two things. First, the
problems between the US and Russia during the second half of the Bush
administration were due primarily to difference of and clashes between
perceived interests. At its core, these differences/clashes stem
from the place of Russia within the international system generally
and within the region specifically. They were not simply due to the
particularities of the Bush administration’s policies nor can they
be changed merely with a rhetorical reboot/reset.

Second, it is highly unlikely that the Kremlin will respond positively
to the Obama administration’s attempt to ‘engage’ them. This is not to
say that "the Russians only understand force." Instead, the more likely
outcome is that Moscow will see the administration’s policies as a sign
of weakness and that they will continue to push the administration,
to strengthen their hold over the former Soviet Union, and, finally, to
be more obstructionist on policy issues outside of the region because
they know that they will not pay any price. This is consistent with
what we see as a general pattern as other countries react to this
new strategy: Obama is definitely someone the world can say ‘no’
to and get away with it.

– Another tension in the region is the moralization between Turkey
and Armenia. Do you believe Turkish-Armenan agreement be will be
reliable if there is no peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia?

– I am not convinced that this agreement will actually come to
fruition. It appears that it is stuck in the Turkish parliament
which refuses to vote on it unless Armenia softens its negotiating
position vis-a-vis Azerbaijan and affects real change in the status
of Nagorno-Karabakh. Since Yerevan is unlikely to do this, all of
the talk of peace being contagious is largely just that — talk.

Granted, anything can happen. But just because the parties to a
conflict are talking does not mean that substantive progress is being
made, even if they are talking a lot. Before every Nagorno-Karabakh
meeting, going back at least as far as the "Key West Summit" during
the first six-months of the Bush administration, the optimists
were saying that ‘a breakthrough is imminent. Every time they were
disappointed. This does not mean that progress on Nagorno-Karabakh is
impossible. However, history is with the pessimists on this one. Since
Ankara has seemingly linked its normalization with Armenia to
Nagorno-Karabakh, there are good reasons to be pessimistic about both.