Author: Nahapetian Samvel

AUTHORITIES SHOULD NOT ATTACH IMPORTANCE TO WHAT OPPOSITION SAYS: ARARAT ZURABYAN

Tert.am
12.04.10

The positions of the Armenian side would be a little solid,
should Yerevan have a different approach towards the Armenia-Turkey
normalization, Head of Armenian Pan-National Movement (HHSh) Party
Board, Ararat Zurabyan said at a press conference today.

In his opinion it would be correct if Armenia ratified the
Armenia-Turkey Protocols before President Serzh Sargsyan’s visit
to Washington.

"May be it would be correct to ratify the Protocols without waiting
for Turkey [to do so], showing [the world] that Turkey is destructive
and avoids ratifying the Protocols. The Armenian side would have an
advantage only in this way," said Zurabyan.

Asked whether or not the authorities would be criticized, should
they have ratified the Protocols before Turkey, Zurabyan said: "I
think that each political unit, especially the one that is ruling,
should in many cases not attach importance to what the opposition
would say. I think the authorities should take the step, if they are
sure that it is the right thing to do and that it would be beneficial
for Armenia," explained Zurabyan.

ARFD parliamentarian: At the upcoming meeting with Serzh Sargsyan the
Turkish party will try to hold ratification of the Protocols on agenda

2010-04-09 15:52:00

ArmInfo. At the upcoming meeting with Serzh Sargsyan the Turkish
party will try to hold ratification of the Protocols on agenda,
Artsvik Minasyan, parliamentarian from ARFD, said at parliamentary
briefings on Friday.

He said the Turkish party will also try to feel the possibility of any
breakthroughs in linking the Armenian- Turkish and the Karabakh
processes. It is important for Ankara to find out also the US policy
towards Turkey in the light of the upcoming parliamentary elections in
Turkey, he said. President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan and President of
Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili will represent the South Caucasus at the
Global Nuclear Summit on April 12-13 in Washington. President of
Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has not been invited to the Summit. President
of Armenia has already agreed to meet with Erdogan.

To recall, Armenia and Turkey signed the "Protocol on the
establishment of diplomatic relations" and the "Protocol on the
development of bilateral relations" in Zurich on October 10. To come
into effect the protocols must be ratified by the Parliaments on each
side.

OUR HOLOCAUST, BUT NOT OURS ONLY

Huffington Post
r-holocaust-but-not-our_b_528796.html
April 7 2010

This coming Sunday evening in Israel and around the Jewish world,
is the Holocaust Remembrance Day (in Hebrew, ‘Yom Ha’Shoah’). It
is a well-known, accepted and respected reality amongst the Jewish
people that the horrors of World War II and the atrocities against
the Jewish people are a national tragedy. Few, however, are aware that
this national tragedy became a de facto national strategy, as well.

A few years ago I addressed this concept in my book titled, The
Holocaust is Over; We Must Rise From its Ashes (Palgrave Macmillan
2008). In the book I argued that we must always remember the victims,
their hopes, prayers and legacies, but we should never allow ourselves
to live, or get permanently stuck, in that traumatic past. I fully
believe that we have to think about our today and tomorrow differently
than this terrible past. Therefore, I offered a new national strategy
in which we, as a people, can and must move from trauma to trust. Many
were incapable of listening to me and to such ideas and rejected it
outright, while others embraced it with enthusiasm. Of those who
accepted my proposal were my teachers and mentors; my children. I
would like to share with you several passages from the book that were
inspired by their wisdom. I hope to convey through these excerpts the
origin of my proposed strategy and the importance of implementing it
today for ourselves and for our future generations:

"I look at the photos that my children send me from their travels
around the world. I try to perceive the faraway landscapes from their
vantage point and to share their experience through the images. They
travel not only to distance themselves from the impure experiences
of an army, war, occupation, corruption and cynicism, but also in
search of other landscapes, spiritual ones. The new spirituality that
is revealed to them is contained in their letters home. We miss you,
Dad, we long and yearn to be with you, but we find here what we don’t
have at home. We love and want to love even more. We, the generation
of the new age, are open to and enriched by meetings and encounters
with whatever is different from us. We are not threatened and do not
keep to ourselves; on the contrary. My children, our children, seek
an encounter with worlds that have not been tainted with the bloody
Shoah. They search for a spirituality that is based on dialogue, not
trauma. They seek the calm of Buddhist countries and want to bring it
back home with them to put us all on a softer course of life that is
accepting and containing, not hostile, suspicious, sharp-edged and
rejects all. They are children who touch the spiritual even though
they are not religious…"

"The new paradigms that originated from the Shoah must be sensitive
and directed toward the creation of a better human and better humanity,
toward people and cultures that will never again produce slaughterers
like the Nazis and will not allow victimization. One law will be
in the land for the persecuted of the entire world, whatever group:
Armenian, Gypsy, Jew, homosexual, migrant, or a refugee from Rwanda,
Cambodia, or Palestine. The new theology, especially the Jewish one,
must break out of the boundaries of the old faith and make the faith in
the human, God’s creation, a tenet of its legacy and traditions, as a
mandatory basis for a dialogue between the believers of all faiths…"

‘Two people emerged from Auschwitz,’ wrote Professor Yehuda Elkana,
a wise man, a Shoah survivor, and an early mentor to me, ‘a minority
that claims ‘this will never happen again,’ and a frightened majority
that claims: ‘this will never happen to us again.’"

During this sad and moving weekend, when I will think about my dear
ones, the innocents who were perished at the hands of the Nazis, I
will be comforted by the wisdom of my children and my teachers. And
again, as in previous years, I will renew my vow: Never Again! Not
just for us — the Jews — only, but for all of humanity. "For this
is the whole duty of man" (Ecclesiastes, Ch. 12 v.13).

KARABAKH TO BE DISCUSSED AT OSCE PA SPRING SESSION

news.az
April 8 2010
Azerbaijan

Deputy speaker of Azerbaijani parliament has commented on the topics to
be discussed at the spring session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly.

During all sessions of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, the Azerbaijani
representatives are raising the issue of the occupational policy of
Armenia. The aim is to expose the occupational policy of Armenia and
present the truth to the world community. News service for the ruling
party of Azerbaijan reports that the due statement was made by Bahar
Muradova, chief of the Azerbaijani delegation in the OSCE Parliamentary
Assembly and deputy chairman of Milli Medjlis (Azerbaijani parliament).

According to Muradova, the spring session of the organization will
raise the Karabakh issue. "The problems of the region are discussed at
the OSCE session. In this sense, the Karabakh problem may be discussed
at the next session", she said.

The session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly will be held in Almaty
on May 13-17.

NIKOLAI UREKI: "NATO STANDS FOR PEACEFUL SOLUTION TO THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE OSCE"

APA
April 9 2010
Azerbaijan

Baku. Viktoriya Dementyeva-APA. "NATO stands for peaceful solution
to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with the assistance of the OSCE."

Romanian ambassador to Azerbaijan Nikolai Ureki said, APA reports. The
ambassador noted that the conflict is affecting the region as a whole:
"Any conflict – this disaster, so NATO stands only for the peaceful
resolution of this conflict. The Alliance does not intervene directly
in the negotiations process, as they are conducted within the framework
of the OSCE Minsk Group ".

Ureki added that NATO cooperates both Azerbaijan and Armenia with
balanced policy, as both countries are the partner countries of
the Alliance.

Note that, the Romanian Embassy in Azerbaijan performs the function
of coordinating NATO’s embassy in Azerbaijan.

MHP REITERATES OPPOSITION TO REFORM PACKAGE

Today’s Zaman
April 7 2010
Turkey

Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli has criticized
the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) constitutional
reform package, stating once again that his party will not support it.

Speaking to members of his party during the MHP’s parliamentary group
meeting yesterday, Bahceli said the AK Party has "forgotten" about the
MHP for the past two-and-a-half years and has sometimes even been "put
down." He stated that his party has been calling for constitutional
change for years. However, he said they were against the AK Party’s
proposed package, noting that de-militarizing a constitution cannot
only be possible by having civilians redraft it. "The 1982 Constitution
was prepared by a commission of civilians appointed by the military."

He said the current reform package waiting for a vote in Parliament
was being forced on the country by the AK Party. He also claimed
that the AK Party had withdrawn the package two days ago due to
controversy surrounding the existence of Parliament Speaker Mehmet
Å~^ahin’s signature among the signatures under the proposal.

Bahceli claimed that those deputies whose signatures appear on the
proposal do not know that their signatures are there. "This will be
remembered as an unprecedented scandal in the history of the republic."

Bahceli also criticized the AK Party’s foreign policy, particularly
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to pay an official
visit to the US, where a resolution recognizing the 1915 killings of
Anatolian Armenians as genocide was passed by the US House Committee
on Foreign Affairs not long ago. He said Erdogan’s initial reaction
to the genocide resolution had been welcomed, but the government has
been quick to backpedal on that stance. He accused the AK Party of
acting as a regional agent for global powers.

Meanwhile, a former MHP deputy, Orhan Bıcakcıoglu, who is still
a member of that party, said the right move would be to back the
constitutional reform package. "If I was in Parliament as a MHP deputy,
I would vote in favor of the package. I will vote yes if there is a
referendum on it," he told Karadeniz’den, a local newspaper in the
Black Sea region. He said the package was not an AK Party project,
noting that any party would have done it. "It just happened to occur
under their term," he said.

ARMENIA TO GET 157.3 MILLION EURO WITHIN ENPI

PanARMENIAN.Net –
April 6, 2010 – 14:58 AMT 09:58 GMT

EU Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy Stefan
Fule and RA Minister of Economy Nerses Yeritsyan signed a Memorandum
of Understanding regarding the National Indicative Program 2011-2013
for Armenia.

On March 2, 2010, the European Commission based on bilateral
negotiations with the Republic of Armenia adopted the National
Indicative Program 2011-2013, which foresees an indicative allocation
of 157.3 million euro from the European Partnership and Neighborhood
Instrument (ENPI). This includes a minimum of 32 million euro earmarked
for the Comprehensive Institution Building program and a minimum
of 7 million euro reserved for the Cohesion Policy. The assistance
will focus on three priority areas – democratic structures and good
governance; trade and investment, regulatory alignment and reform;
Socio-economic reform and sustainable development.

The principle objective of the EU-Armenia cooperation is to develop
an increasingly close relationship between the EU and Armenia, going
beyond past levels of cooperation to deeper political cooperation
and gradual integration.

SERGE SARKISIAN ON ARMENIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS

Der Spiegel
April 6 2010
Germany

‘We Wanted to Break Through Centuries of Hostility’

Rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia is still far from sight. In
an interview with SPIEGEL, Armenian President Serge Sarkisian explains
why the recognition of genocide against his people is so important —
and why he is little surprised by hostilities from Turkish politicians.

SPIEGEL: Mr. President, in 2008, you attended a football match between
your two countries together with your Turkish counterpart. It was a
sensation at the time. Do you regret having invited the president of
Turkey to your capital?

Sarkisian: No. I am convinced there is no other alternative but for
Turks and Armenians to cooperate. We wanted to break through centuries
of hostility. It was clear to me from the beginning that it wouldn’t
be an easy process.

SPIEGEL: Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told SPIEGEL that
on the topic of Armenians killed by Ottoman troops during World War I,
"There can be no talk of genocide against the Armenians." Why does
your neighbor have such difficulty with its own history?

Sarkisian: Mr. Erdogan has also said that Turks are not capable of
committing genocide, and that Turkish history is "as clean and clear
as the sun." Turkey resists classifying the massacre as genocide. But
no matter how great Turkish resistance may be, this is not a question
that is up to Ankara to decide.

SPIEGEL: Now Erdogan is even threatening to expel thousands of
Armenians living illegally in Turkey.

Sarkisian: For my people, such unacceptable comments evoke memories of
the genocide. Unfortunately, these comments don’t surprise me, coming
from the mouth of a Turkish politician. We don’t need to look very
far back in history to find comparable declarations. Similar voices
got loud in 1988 in what is today Azerbaijan. Dozens of Armenians died
in the resulting pogroms in Azerbaijani cities like Sumgait and Baku.

SPIEGEL: How should the international community act on this question?

Sarkisian: The world must react decisively. America, Europe —
Germany, too — all the countries that were involved in the process
of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement should take an official stance. If
every country had already recognized the genocide, Turkey wouldn’t
make these kinds of statements. What gives reason for hope is that
many young people in Turkey as well are protesting against these
tirades. There’s a new generation growing up there, and the political
leadership has to take their opinions into account.

SPIEGEL: Turkey also accuses you of blocking progress — Ankara says
you prevented the formation of a joint historical commission. Why
are you against this idea?

Sarkisian: How could such a commission work objectively, when at the
same time in Turkey, anyone who uses the term "genocide" is persecuted
and punished? Ankara is only trying to delay decisions. Whenever a
foreign parliament or government approached Turkey with a request
to recognize the genocide, the response would be, "Wait for the
results from the commission." Creating such a commission would mean
questioning the fact of genocide against our people. We’re not prepared
to do that. A commission would make sense if Turkey would admit its
guilt. Then historians could work together to uncover the causes that
led to this tragedy.

SPIEGEL: The genocide took place 95 years ago. Why is its recognition
so important for Armenia today?

Sarkisian: It’s a question of historical justice and our national
security. The best way to prevent the repetition of such an atrocity
is to condemn it clearly.

Part 2: ‘We Don’t Tie the Opening of the Border to Recognition of
the Genocide’

SPIEGEL: You can see Mount Ararat, Armenia’s national symbol, from
the windows of your residence. Today, the mountain is inaccessible,
on the other side of the Turkish border. Turkey fears demands for
land and compensation. Do you want Mount Ararat back?

Sarkisian: No one can take Mount Ararat from us; we keep it in our
hearts. Wherever Armenians live in the world today, you will find a
picture of Mount Ararat in their homes. And I feel certain that a time
will come when Mount Ararat is no longer a symbol of the separation
between our peoples, but an emblem of understanding. But let me make
this clear: Never has a representative of Armenia made territorial
demands. Turkey alleges this — perhaps out of its own bad conscience?

SPIEGEL: Your borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan are closed, while
Iran and Georgia make difficult neighbors. Isn’t it more important
to break out of this isolation than to fight endlessly with Turkey
over the genocide?

Sarkisian: We don’t tie the opening of the border to recognition of
the genocide. It isn’t our fault if the rapprochement fails.

SPIEGEL: Turkey wants to make the opening of the border dependent on
progress on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia fought a war over
this region, which was claimed by Azerbaijan after the collapse of
the Soviet Union, but where the majority of inhabitants are Christian
Armenians.

Sarkisian: Turkey wants continuous concessions from our side. But
that is not possible. The most important matter is implementing the
right of Nagorno-Karabakh’s population to self-determination. In my
opinion, if Azerbaijan would recognize Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence,
the question could be resolved in a matter of hours. Unfortunately,
Azerbaijan appears to want to solve the problem through force. The
Azerbaijanis still believe they can annex Nagorno-Karabakh as part
of Azerbaijan. That would mean, though, that within a very short
period of time it would become impossible for Armenians to remain
in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Why were the states in the former Yugoslavia able to obtain
independence? Should Karabakh be denied the same rights — simply
because Azerbaijan has raw materials like oil and natural gas at its
disposal, as well as Turkey as its patron? We don’t think that is fair.

SPIEGEL: Would Armenia agree to extensive autonomy for Nagorno-Karabakh
within Azerbaijan, the way it was under the Soviet Union?

Sarkisian: Of course not. Giving Karabakh back to Azerbaijan would
lead to the expulsions of the Armenian population within a very short
period. Nagorno-Karabakh was never part of independent Azerbaijan. The
region wasn’t associated with Azerbaijan until a 1923 decision by the
Communist Party’s Caucasian Bureau, under pressure from Stalin. If
Karabakh were to become part of Azerbaijan, one would have to, at the
very least, restore the Soviet Union. I don’t think anyone seriously
wants that.

SPIEGEL: Turkey has been pursuing European Union membership for
decades. Is membership a goal for Armenia too?

Sarkisian: Europe’s values are attractive for us. That’s the reason
we’re currently reforming our administration, following the European
model, of course. We know very well we must solve problems if we want
to become a full-fledged member of a system. How long that process
takes depends on us — but also on the EU.

SPIEGEL: Your country shares a border with Iran. How do you assess
the global community’s conflict with Tehran?

Sarkisian: We’re watching with concern. Iran is one of only two land
routes that connect us to the outside world. Everyone in Armenia
knows that if Iran hadn’t kept the border open during the war, there
would have been supply shortages for our citizens. The situation
was similar during the Five-Day War (South Ossetia war) in 2008,
when rail connections through Georgia were disrupted. We’re building
a pipeline and a rail line together with Iran.

Interview conducted by Benjamin Bidder in Yerevan, Armenia. Translated
from the German by Ella Ornstein.

ld/0,1518,687387,00.html

ARMENIAN LEADER TALKS TO DER SPIEGEL

news.az
April 6 2010
Azerbaijan

Serzh Sargsyan German weekly Der Spiegel has published on its website
an interview with the Armenian president that has already provoked
a response from Baku.

Russian versions of the interview appeared yesterday on Armenian
websites. The Armenian president’s spokesman, Armen Arzumanyan,
told Tert.Am on Monday that Der Spiegel had promised to correct what
he described as inaccuracies in the weekly’s published version of
President Serzh Sargsyan’s interview.

The interview was not available on Der Spiegel’s website yesterday,
but appeared in German today. It has been translated below by News.Az.

It is the Armenian president’s remarks about Nagorno-Karabakh that
prompted a response from the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry.

Der Spiegel’s Benjamin Bidder said to Serzh Sargsyan: ‘Turkey
wants to make the opening of the border dependent on progress in
the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Armenia waged a war for this territory,
which has been claimed by Azerbaijan since the collapse of the Soviet
Union but is inhabited mainly by Christian Armenians.’

‘Turkey always wants concessions from our side, but this is
impossible,’ Sargsyan replied. ‘The vital issue is the realization of
the right to self-determination of the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. If
Azerbaijan were to recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, I
think the issue could be solved in a matter of hours. Unfortunately,
it looks as though Azerbaijan wants a military solution to the
problem. The Azerbaijanis still believe that they can connect
Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. This would mean, however, that in a
short time it would become impossible for the Armenian population to
remain in Nagorno-Karabakh.’

‘Of course not,’ Sargsyan said when asked whether comprehensive
autonomy would be enough for Nagorno-Karabakh. ‘Giving Karabakh
back to Azerbaijan would lead in a short time to the expulsion of
the Armenian people. Nagorno-Karabakh was never part of independent
Azerbaijan. The region was linked to Azerbaijan for the first time in
1923 by decision of the Caucasus Buro of the Communist Party under
pressure from Stalin. If Karabakh were to be part of Azerbaijan,
one would at the very least have to restore the Soviet Union. I don’t
believe that anyone could seriously do that.’

Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesman Elkhan Polukhov on Monday
described as ‘unfounded’ Sargsyan’s accusations that the Armenian
people would be expelled. ‘Mr Sargsyan seems not to know that
Azerbaijan will never drive out its population because of their
ethnicity,’ Polukhov told journalists in Baku. ‘Azerbaijan has never
refused to grant the Armenians and Azerbaijanis of Nagono-Karabakh the
right to self-determination according to international legal norms
within the framework of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan,’
he said.

Asked by Der Spiegel what kind of solution he proposed, Sargsyan said:
‘Why could the states of former Yugoslavia achieve independence?

Shouldn’t Karabakh have much the same right – is it only because
Azerbaijan has raw materials like oil and gas and Turkey as a patron?

We don’t consider this fair.’

Polukhov responded that Yugoslavia, like the USSR, had collapsed
due to historical events and pointed out that Armenia had gained
its independence at that time. ‘It is at the very least, therefore,
politically incorrect to draw parallels between Azerbaijan and
Yugoslavia,’ Polukhov said.

Rapprochement with Turkey

Asked whether he regretted the invitation to Turkish President Abdullah
Gul to watch the Turkish football team play in Yerevan last September,
Sargsyan replied, ‘No, I am convinced that there is no alternative
to cooperation between Turks and Armenians. We want to break through
the centuries of enmity. We were clear from the beginning that this
would be no easy process.’

‘Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in his recent
interview with Der Spiegel that "there can be no talk of genocide",’
the weekly said. ‘Why can your neighbour not come to terms with its
own past?’

‘Mr Erdogan also said that Turks were not capable of committing
genocide, and that Turkish history was "as bright as the sun",’
Sargsyan replied. ‘The Turks are opposed to classifying the massacre
as genocide. However, Ankara is not the one to decide on this issue.

However great Turkish opposition may be, it’s not a question for
Ankara to decide.’

Asked about Erdogan’s recent threat to deport illegal Armenian migrants
from Turkey, Sargsyan said, ‘Such unacceptable statements stir my
people’s memories of the genocide. Unfortunately, it doesn’t surprise
me, coming from a Turkish politician. We don’t have to go back very far
in history to find similar statements. In 1988 similar voices could
be heard in today’s Azerbaijan. This led to pogroms in Azerbaijani
towns such as Sumgayit and Baku and the deaths of dozens of Armenians.’

‘The world must respond resolutely,’ Sargsyan said, when asked
how the international community should react. ‘America, Europe,
as well as Germany, all those countries that have been involved
in the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement process, should openly state
their position. Had all the states recognized the genocide by now,
the Turks wouldn’t talk that way. It is, however, a source of hope
that many young people in Turkey stood up against that statement. A
new generation is growing up in Turkey and the political leadership
of that country has to reckon with its opinion.’

Asked why he was against the creation of a bilateral commission of
historians to investigate the genocide claims, Sarsgyan said: ‘How
can such a commission work objectively if in Turkey using the term
genocide leads to persecution and criminal charges? Ankara is just
trying to delay decisions. When foreign parliaments or governments
ask Turkey to recognize the genocide, they will be told: "First wait
for the outcome of the commission." Creating such a body would mean
casting doubt on the fact of the genocide perpetrated against our
people. We are not prepared for this. A commission would be meaningful
if Turkey acknowledged its guilt. In that case scholars could study
jointly the causes of the tragedy.’

‘The genocide took place 95 years ago. Why is its recognition so
important for Armenia?,’ Der Spiegel asked.

‘It is a matter of historical justice and our national security. The
best way to prevent the repetition of such an atrocity is to condemn
it clearly,’ Sargsyan said.

Asked whether Armenia would like to have Mount Ararat, the symbol
of Armenia, back, Sargsyan said, ‘Nobody can take Ararat away from
us, we keep it in our hearts. Wherever in the world Armenians live,
you will find the image of Ararat in their homes. I am sure that the
time will come when Ararat will no longer be a symbol of division
between our peoples but a sign of understanding. However, I would
like to clarify the following: no representative of Armenia has ever
made any territorial claims on Turkey. This is what the Turks assume,
maybe because of a guilty conscience?’

‘We do not link opening the border with recognition of the genocide; it
is not our fault if rapprochement is foundering,’ Sargsyan said, when
asked whether it wouldn’t be better to open the border than quarrel.

EU

Asked whether European Union membership was a goal for Armenia,
Sargsyan said, ‘European values are attractive to us. That’s why we
are now reforming our administration on the European model, of course.

We know full well that if we want to be a full member of a system,
we must solve the problems. It doesn’t depend on us how long the
process will take, but on the European Union.

Iran

Asked his opinion on the international community’s conflict with
Tehran, Sargsyan said: ‘We view this with concern. Iran is one of
only two countries that connect us with the outside world. Everyone in
Armenia knows that if Iran had not opened its border during the war,
it would have led to restrictions in supplies to our towns. It was the
same during the five-day war of 2008, when the rail link via Georgia
was cut off. We are building a pipeline and a rail link together with
Iran just now.

Der Spiegel

AZERBAIJANI ANALYST ON POSSIBLE MEETING BETWEEN TURKISH PM AND ARMENIAN PRESIDENT IN U.S.

Today
4.html
April 6 2010
Azerbaijan

Interview with Azerbaijani political analyst Arif Yunus.

Can we say that Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Washington will remove
issue of the "Armenian genocide" from the agenda of the U.S. once
and for all?

To begin with, the issue of "genocide" will not be removed from the
agenda of the United States neither today nor in the coming years. It
will continue hanging over Turkey as the sword of Damocles. It’s
a good tool for putting pressure on Ankara. Problems in US-Turkish
relations will long be ambigious, because Turkey is also a regional
power and seeks to conduct its policy.

In addition, we must understand that the voters in the U.S. have a
significant role. There can not be policy, when the president can,
roughly speaking, shut the mouths of parliamentarians. It does not
work in the United States. And the role of ethnic diasporas in the
U.S. has been playing and will continue to play an important role.

Another thing, is that this year the U.S. president is not going to
do what Armenians expect him to do – he will not make a statement
recognizing the "genocide" on April 24th.

At the same time, the scheduled visit of the Turkish Prime Minister is
related to a new situation in our region rather than "genocide" issue.

Tehran’s nuclear program is the number one issue for the U.S. The U.S.

needs a stable situation in the South Caucasus and the possibility of
using this territory for its future plans in the region, particularly
in connection with Iran. Of course, Turkey’s position also plays a
great role both in relation to Iran and in relation with Caucasus
countries.

In your opinion, will Turkish PM and Armenian President meet in
the U.S.?

I am sure of it. Anyway, I’ll be very surprised if this meeting does
not take place. Americans themselves want this meeting to happen. I
have no doubt that during his meeting with Erdogan, Obama will surely
discuss all issues related to Armenian-Turkish relations. After all,
the question today is very important for both the U.S. administration
and Turkey. Each side hopes to solve its problems. Americans need
further progress in Armenian-Turkish relations, which stalled after
the protocols were signed in Switzerland. There were even fears about
the future prospects of Armenian-Turkish relations. So, this issue
will be discussed both in the course of US-Turkish negotiations and
during meeting between Erdogan and Sargsyan in the U.S.

In your opinion, will the Turkey-Armenia border finally open? Will it
be linked to the resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict?

Opening of the Armenian-Turkish border is a matter of time. Most
likely, it will open soon. Simply, each side is trying to squeeze
dividends in its favor and lose as little as possible. But it is very
doubtful whether this issue will be legally linked with the process of
settling the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Of
course, during his meetings with Obama, and then with Sargsyan the
Turkish prime minister will try to link these two issues together. He
knows that Turkish society and Baku also want this. The best way out
for Erdogan and his supporters is to link these two processes. But
he is unlikely to succeed. Anyway, today it is difficult to imagine.

Is it possible that Armenian terrorism will again be used as a
mechanism of pressure on Turkey, and Armenian terrorists will organize
attacks in the country?

I think it has already been left in the past. First, let’s not forget
that notorious Armenian terrorist organization ASALA was supported
by the USSR, and was part of the great geopolitical struggle of
the Soviet Union against NATO and U.S. in that period. There is a
different situation in the region.

May the process of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict mark
progress any time soon?

No. As always, we’ll hear optimistic statements by the OSCE Minsk Group
and other Western diplomats and experts. There will be statements by
the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. But realistically, I expect
no breakthrough in this regard in near future.. The positions of the
conflicting parties are too far apart, and today I see no positive
dynamics towards the settlement of the conflict.

How do you assess the socio-political situation in Armenia? Does
former President Kocharian have a chance to return to politics?

Today the situation in Armenia is quite difficult. But when compared
with Serzh Sargsyan’s early days in power, today his position is much
stronger than it was a year ago. And we can say that today he feels
as president much more confident than a year ago.

However, socio-political situation in Armenia is heavily dependent on
three factors: the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, relations with
Turkey and the economic situation in the country. And since there is
uncertainty and serious problems in all three cases, it means that
socio-political situation in Armenia will be permanently subject to
changes and shocks.

Since the power in Armenia is not democratic and would not be
inclined to seek dialogue with the opposition and solve problems
based on democratic principles, I do not rule out changes in Serzh
Sargsyan’s position. Therefore, we can only talk about the current
situation of Sargsyan.