Author: Nalbandian Eduard

Parliament Speakers of South Caucasus Discussed Cooperation

Civil Georgia, UK
May 19 2004

Parliament speakers of the South Caucasus, Nino Burjanadze of Georgia,
Murtuz Aleskerov of Azerbaijan and Arthur Baghdasaryan of Armenia held
talks in Strasbourg on May 18 within the framework of the Council of
Europe Parliamentary Summit on May 17-19.

The speakers welcomed the readiness of the Parliamentary Assembly of
the Council of Europe (PACE) to develop concrete cooperation programs
with different groups of society with a view to promoting contacts
in the region and assisting the implementation of democratic reforms.

The Assembly President and the Speakers will pursue contacts in order
to work on concrete proposals for cooperation to be discussed by the
parliamentary delegations of the three countries during the Assembly’s
October session.

In this framework, the Secretary General of the PACE Bruno Haller
will visit Baku, Tbilisi, and Yerevan at the beginning of July.

Agency WPS
What the Papers Say. Part A (Russia)
May 17, 2004, Monday

THE CAUCASUS FRACTURE

SOURCE: Rodnaya Gazeta, No. 18, May 14, 2004, p. 12

by Stanislav Tarasov

The geopolitical intrigue in the Caucasus related to Adzharia had a
different outcome to what many Russian analysts had assumed. Aslan
Abashidze, who was drifting from a position of armed confrontation
with Tbilisi (blowing up the border bridges) to attempts to solve the
problem by political and diplomatic means, finally had to leave
Batumi. The forces that wanted to retain control over the routes for
transportation of Caspian oil to foreign markets by any means with
assistance of Abashidze were defeated. This happened as a result of
intensive consultations of Moscow, Tbilisi and Washington.

Very few people know what kind arguments the parties used in the
course of these very rapid negotiations. But judging by the reaction
of Tbilisi, which emphasizes the constructive personal role of
Vladimir Putin in a peaceful resolution of the crisis in Adzharia, it
is possible to guess that Moscow has managed to achieve some
opportunities for building up its new policy in the Caucasus.

There was a kind of mystic aspect in this situation too and President
of Georgia Saakashvili hinted at it. In Batumi he told journalists,
“I believe the forebodings.” It seemed that Vladimir Putin decided
not to darken his inauguration with a local armed conflict between
Tbilisi and Batumi.

Of course, Tbilisi is triumphing and already announces its readiness
to restore its control over Sukhumi and Tskhinvali. In any case,
majority of analysts presume that it will hardly be possible to solve
these problems according to the scenario of “revolution of roses.” If
Tbilisi uses armed force, appearance of new zones of armed
confrontation in the Caucasus is inevitable and the entire Caucasus
region may start burning in this case. Although this may seem
strange, neither Moscow nor the West cannot offer a “quick-action
vaccine” to the warring parties now that can cure them from the
existing and dormant centuries-long local territorial and
inter-ethnic conflicts. Despite the victory of Tbilisi in Adzharia,
the situation in the region embracing the territory between the
Caspian and Black seas remains very explosive. Events on this
territory can develop according to their own geopolitical logic that
does not take into account the established borders between the
states.

We need to mention another mysterious coincidence connected with the
first days of Vladimir Putin second term in office: the murder of
President Akhmad Kadyrov of Chechnya. Some Western analysts are
linking the issues of Abashidze and Kadyrov, saying that Russia is
allegedly losing its influence in the Caucasus. If the opposition in
Armenia manages to at least influence the government’s foreign
policy, if not to replace the ruling regime, it will be possible to
speak about closing the “Caucasus circle.”

But the question now is this: has Moscow suffered a defeat in the
Caucasus, or is this a case of Russia shaping a new policy doctrine
in this region?

Back in 1919 and 1920, serious debates were going on in the Kremlin:
is it necessary to bind the Caucasus to the mainland or to create a
“sanitary cordon” in the region? For instance, former Colonel of the
Tsarist General Staff Alexeev, who was a military attache of Soviet
Ambassador to Tbilisi Sergei Kirov, wrote the following in his
analytical report: “It is necessary to take into account the historic
experience of Russia’s ownership of the Caucasus. The first option is
not to interfere in the affairs of the Caucasus, to let the processes
develop in a natural way and to deal with the strong afterwards. The
second option is to divide the sphere of influence in this region
with neighboring Turkey and Iran and the West, and to indicate our
presence in the region primarily by economic means. The third option
is to conquer the region by military force: but in this case the
Caucasus will make itself known again in the event of another Russian
geopolitical fracture.”

It is known that the Bolsheviks chose the third option. But it seems
that Vladimir Putin has decided to deviate from Bolshevism in his
policy in the Caucasus. The first and the second scenarios of Colonel
Alexeev have been brought into play. This means that in case of
another fire in the Caucasus, we will no longer need to intervene to
pull anyone else’s chestnuts out of the fire.

Translated by Pavel Pushkin

Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
May 17, 2004, Monday

ILKHAM ALIYEV IS PREPARED TO RECOVER KARABAKH

SOURCE: Izvestia (Moscow), May 14, 2004, p. 1

by Maxim Yusin

IS AZERBAIJAN PREPARED TO RESUME A WAR FOR KARABAKH?

Azerbaijan intends to resume a dispute over Nagorny Karabakh. This is
the essence of a statement made by President Ilham Aliyev of
Azerbaijan at a ceremony of opening of a new military unit in
Nakhichevan.

Aliyev stated: “The Azerbaijani people and the army may at any moment
make moves aimed at restoring the territorial integrity of the state.
International laws let us do this. Azerbaijan will try to solve the
Karabakh conflict by means of negotiations. If we see that the
dialogue is fruitless we will liberate occupied territories at any
price.”

Aliyev announced these threats on May 12, the tenth anniversary of
cease-fire agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In addition,
Aliyev knew that Armenian President Robert Kocharyan would visit
Moscow on Friday. Baku sent a signal to Moscow and Yerevan:
Azerbaijan is not satisfied with the progress of settling of the
Karabakh conflict.

Are Aliyev’s threats serious?

Is Azerbaijan prepared for resuming a war for Karabakh? Such
prospects are unlikely despite Ilham Aliyev’s bellicose statements.

The majority of experts state that the Azerbaijani Army is not
prepared for defeating Armenian units. Of course, the ratio of force
has changed over the past ten years. Azerbaijan has been spending a
substantial part of oil export revenues on the modernization of its
army. At present it’s much stronger than in 1992-1994. Meanwhile, no
one can guarantee that it can win a victory in a war against Armenia.
It is evident that Armenia will use all reserves to help Nagorny
Karabakh. The point is that Armenian President Robert Kocharyan was
born in Stepanakert and headed the state defense committee in Nagorny
Karabakh in 1992-1994.

No one needs this war

It is hardly likely that the war will break out because Azerbaijan
does not need it.

A new armed conflict will be disastrous for the regional economy.
Azerbaijan’s oil sector will become a victim of this war. Foreign
investment will go down. The war will pose a threat to oil pipelines.

It would be advantageous for Ilham Aliyev to unleash this war if
something threatened his positions, and the army and the special
service were unreliable. A “small victorious war” would unite the
nation and improve the leader’s popularity.

However, all this does not concern Aliyev. His regime is very stable.
This means that it’s senseless to run such risk. It shouldn’t be
forgotten that Ilham Aliyev’s predecessors (Ayaz Mutalibov and
Abulfaz Elchibei) were dismissed because of military failures.

Baku’s demarche is a sign for Moscow

To all appearance, Aliyev’s statements in Nakhichevan are a
propagandistic shot in a verbal war. Baku is dissatisfied with the
performance of the Minsk OSCE group, which consists of Russia, France
and the US, and plays the role of an intermediary in settling of the
Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan is sure that it plays its role
unsuccessfully.

The government of Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that the conflict
has not been stopped, negotiations do not advance, and seven
Azerbaijani regions remain under Armenia’s control. This means that 1
million refugees from the conflict zone cannot return home. Baku
thinks that the conflict has not been settled yet because of Russia’s
passivity. It seems that Moscow is satisfied with the current state
of affairs.

Ilham Aliyev hints that Azerbaijan cannot put up with such a
situation. If the process of negotiations does not move off dead
center he is prepared to start a diplomatic attack.

Armenian Army

50,000 servicemen, $79 million (4% of GDP)

The Ground Force has four motorized infantry brigades, ten detached
infantry regiments, one artillery brigade, two anti-aircraft
brigades. In addition, the Armenian Army has air, anti-aircraft,
reconnaissance and military engineering units.

Azerbaijani Army

70,000 servicemen, $140 million (2.6% of GDP)

The Armed Forces of Azerbaijan are stronger that the armies of
Armenia and Georgia. They consist of the Ground Force, the Navy and
the Air and Anti-Aircraft Force. The Azerbaijani Army has a huge
arsenal of ammunition inherited from the USSR. The Azerbaijani Army
received 230 tanks, 360 armored personnel carriers, 200 artillery
complexes, combat helicopters, 11 Su-25r assault planes, five
MiG-25RB interceptors and one Su-25 assault plane from arsenals of
the 4th army of the Soviet Armed Forces. Military experts think that
Azerbaijan seeks to create the strongest army in the region. The
command is prepared to deploy troops consisting of 125,000 to 165,000
servicemen in wartime (including reservists).

The Army of Nagorny Karabakh

25,000 servicemen (20% of GDP)

Nagorny Karabakh has ground, tank, missile-artillery, anti-aircraft,
reconnaissance and special battalions created on the basis of the
National Guard.

Translated by Alexander Dubovoi

Russia PM, Armenia president discuss coop in intl energy projects
By Oksana Polishchuk

ITAR-TASS News Agency
May 14, 2004 Friday

MOSCOW, May 14 — The interaction in international energy projects
and projects of transporting energy carriers were discussed at
the meeting of Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov and Armenian
President Robert Kocharyan on Friday. Moscow “assesses highly the
forming of a reliable and solid infrastructure between Russia and
Armenia in the field of energy,” spokesman for the Russian premier
Alexander Zharov told journalists after the talks.

Mikhail Fradkov also stressed the importance of “all-round economic
ties of Russian constituents with Armenia.” The Russian prime minister
noted the importance of cooperation between the two countries in the
humanitarian sphere and stressed the success of the Days of Russian
Culture in Armenia.

According to Zharov, Fradkov supported “the view about the need of
further regular bilateral contacts for comprehensive development
of positive tendencies in trade and economic cooperation of the
countries.”

Article by: BatumiNews.com
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Civilians from Sokhumi march with slogans: “Misha, reconcile us!”.

posted: May 12, 2004
Individuals of different nationalities from Sokhumi applied to Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili with the slogan: “Misha, reconcile us!”.

On the report of the source, close with the government circles, yesterday,
the self- proclaimed Abkhazian Ministry of Interior Affairs and Security
Servicemen detained 16 citizens in the center of Sokhumi, rallying with the
Georgian five – cross state flags and President Saakashvili’s portraits.

The same source said small groups of citizens, gathered in the center of the
city demanded from the Georgian President Saakashvili rapid adjustment of
Georgian – Abkhazian conflict, conciliation of the Abkhazians and Georgians,
also of the civilians, living on the territory of Abkhazia.

The group of 16, mostly Armenians in it, with the slogan: “Misha, reconcile
us!”, were detained by the policemen in the Orakhelashvili street in
Sokhumi, when they were fixing Saakashvili’s portraits on the walls of a
mineral water shop opposite the street and the passers – by started joining
the rally.

Londer Tsaava, Chairman of the Abkhazian Council of Ministers confirmed the
information on the rally in Sokhumi.

The arrested rally participants are presently at the security service
isolator. On the reports, health state of many among them is critical, since
they were batoned by the police.

ZORYAN INSTITUTE OF CANADA, INC.
255 Duncan Mill Rd., Suite 310
Toronto, ON, Canada M3B 3H9
Tel: 416-250-9807 Fax: 416-512-1736 E-mail: [email protected]

PRESS RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT: GEORGE SHIRINIAN
DATE: May 13, 2004 Tel: (416) 250-9807

Toronto – Turkish scholar Dr. Taner Akçam will be speaking about his new
book, From Empire to Republic: Turkish Nationalism and the Armenian
Genocide in several cities in the coming weeks.

Dr. Akçam is one of the first Turkish academics to acknowledge and discuss
openly the genocide of the Armenians by the Ottoman Turkish government in
1915. He is one of a handful of scholars who are challenging their
homeland’s insistent declarations that the organized slaughter of Armenians
did not occur; and he is the first Turkish specialist to use the word
“genocide” publicly in this context. His new book represents the first
scholarly attempt to both document the Genocide and understand that
genocide from a perpetrator, rather than victim perspective, and to
contextualize fully the events of 1915 within Turkey’s political history,
and western political policies towards the region more generally.

Taner Akçam was born in northeastern Turkey and became interested in
politics at an early age. He was active in Turkish politics until he fled
to Germany as a political refugee, where he received a Ph.D. from Hanover
University. Dr. Akçam is the author of numerous books and articles in
English, German and Turkish. Through his research, writings, and lectures,
he has worked tirelessly and courageously to help the Turkish people come
to terms with their history and to bridge the gap between Turks and
Armenians. He is currently Visiting Associate Professor of History at the
University of Minnesota – Twin Cities.

The schedule of his lectures is as follows:

Thursday, May 20, 7:30 p.m.
Boston-Cambridge. Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government, 79 John
F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA. Starr Auditorium. Parking is available at
the Harvard Square Parking Garage at the corner of Eliot and JFK streets or
at the Charles Hotel Parking Garage. This lecture is co-sponsored by the
Zoryan Institute for Contemporary Armenian Research and Documentation, the
National Association for Armenian Studies and Research, the Mashtots Chair
in Armenian Studies at Harvard, and the Harvard Armenian Society. For more
information contact the Zoryan Institute at 617-497-6713 or NAASR at
617-489-1610.

Friday, May 21, 6:30 p.m.
Montreal. McGill University, Moot Court, New Chancellor Day Hall Law
Faculty, 3644 Peel. This lecture is co-sponsored by the Zoryan Institute of
Canada and the Armenian Students’ Associations of Concordia, McGill, and
the University of Montreal. For more information contact the Zoryan
Institute of Canada, 416-250-9807.

Saturday May 22, 6:30 p.m.
Montreal. Bolsahay Cultural Association, 2855 Victor Dore. This lecture is
co-sponsored by the Zoryan Institute of Canada, the Bolsahay Cultural
Association and the Armenian General Benevolent Union of Montreal. For more
information contact the Zoryan Institute of Canada, 416-250-9807.

Sunday, May 23, 7:30 p.m.
Toronto. Glendon College, 2275 Bayview Ave. (at Lawrence), Dining Hall.
Parking is free. This lecture is organized by the Zoryan Institute of
Canada, with the participation of the Armenian Association of Toronto, the
Armenian Evangelical Church of Toronto, the Armenian General Benevolent
Union of Toronto, the Armenian Missionary Association of Canada, the
Armenian National Committee of Toronto, the Armenian Students’ Associations
of Ryerson University, University of Toronto and York University, the
Bolsahay Cultural Association, the Canadian Armenian Business Council, Holy
Trinity Armenian Apostolic Church, St. Gregory’s Armenian Catholic Church,
St. Mary’s Armenian Apostolic Church, Social Democrat Henchak Party, and
other organizations. For more information contact the Zoryan Institute of
Canada, 416-250-9807.

Friday, June 4, 6:30 p.m.
New York-Manhattan. City University of New York Graduate Center, 365 Fifth
Avenue, Elebash Recital Hall. This lecture is co-sponsored by the Zoryan
Institute for Contemporary Armenian Research and Documentation and the
Middle East & Middle
Eastern American Center of CUNY. For more information contact the Zoryan
Institute of Canada, 416-250-9807.

Admission to all lectures is free. A question-and-answer period will follow
the lecture. Copies of Dr. Akçam’s new book, From Empire to Republic will
be on sale and available for signing.

ARMENIA A NEW EU NEIGHBOR

A1 Plus | 15:29:58 | 14-05-2004 | Official |

Armenian FM Vardan Oskanyan received Christoff Bergner, Yorg Tauss,
Lydia Westrich and Ulla Heller, the members of “South Caucasus”
multi-party MP group of Germany Bundestag.

The interlocutors have underlined importance of the decision recently
made by European Commission, under which Armenia and other South
Caucasus states are enrolled in “Wider Europe and New Neighbors”
of European Union.

Bundestag MPs stated that the group they had established as well
supported making the above decision as it stressed integration of South
Caucasus into the European structures as a joint and complete element.

The present phase of Karabakhi conflict settlement was referred to
during the meeting. At request of MPs Minister Oskanyan introduced
the impressions of his negotiations with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Mamediarov in Strasburg.

Kazakh, CIS security leaders discuss fighting “modern threats”

Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency, Almaty
12 May 04

Astana, 12 May: Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and CIS
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Secretary-General
Nikolay Bordyuzha discussed preparations for the next session of the
organization in Astana on 12 May.

The session will be held at the level of the presidents of the CSTO
member states in Astana on 18-19 June this year.

“I briefed the Kazakh president on the results of the CSTO’s activities
in 2003 and on the preparations for the organization’s next session
which is due in Astana on 18-19 June,” Bordyuzha told journalists
following the meeting with Nazarbayev.

The CSTO secretary-general noted that he and the Kazakh president had
discussed “adapting the CSTO’s activities to modern challenges and
threats”, prospects for the organization’s development, including the
coordination of the member states’ foreign policies, and aspects of
“perfecting the military components” within the CSTO.

At the same time, Bordyuzha stressed that “the main and priority
direction” for cooperation among the CSTO members is fighting common
challenges and threats: terrorism, drugs business, political extremism
and separatism.

The CSTO members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia
and Tajikistan.

Azeri leader inaugurates international airport on a visit to exclave

Media-Press news agency
12 May 04

Baku, 12 May: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev arrived in the
Naxcivan Autonomous Republic today ahead of a three-day visit. He
has studied the social and economic development of the autonomy which
marked its 80th anniversary this year.

Shortly after arrival in Naxcivan, Ilham Aliyev attended the opening
ceremony of the international airport which will significantly
expand the autonomous republic’s communication opportunities. Due
to the ongoing Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy Karabakh,
Naxcivan has been in blockade since 1990.

The president will also attend the opening of a number of social
facilities, including a new school and a swimming pool.

On 13 May the head of state will hold a meeting with the leadership
of the autonomy.

NKR Leader Says Karabakh Army Guarantor of Truce with Baku in 9 May Speech

Arminfo, Yerevan
8 May 04

STEPANAKERT

The 9 May has always been honoured by the Karabakh people, the
president of the Nagornyy Karabakh Republic (NKR), Arkadiy Gukasyan,
has said in his congratulatory speech to the people.

According to an Arminfo correspondent in Stepanakert, Gukasyan said
that in the relatively recent past the 9 May had been celebrated as a
victory of the then common motherland in the patriotic war against
fascist Germany. Every second resident of Nagornyy Karabakh who went
to the front was killed in this war.

“But 12 years ago the 9 May acquired a special importance for us,
indeed becoming decisive for the Armenians of Artsakh (Nagornyy
Karabakh),” Gukasyan said. The town of Shushi was liberated on that
day and again became an Armenian town, as it should be. The NKR
defence army, which marks its birthday on 9 May, liberated this town,
amazing the world with its courage and fighting skill.

“Due to the successful Shushi operation the road of life’ to mother
Armenia was opened, saving the Artsakh people from full physical
elimination,” Gukasyan added. He talked about the historical
significance of the Shushi liberation.

It is very symbolic that these three dates are marked on the same
day. This coincidence embodies the succession of
generations. According to Gukasyan, the current generation of Artsakh
people continued with glorious military traditions of their
grandfathers and fathers who had demonstrated courage and fearlessness
on the battlefield of the World War II. The current generation
defended freedom and independence of Nagornyy Karabakh in fighting
with the enemy which was much stronger, given personnel and hardware.

“May the memory of those, who were killed for Artsakh’s happy future,
live forever. The duty of those living is not to allow the blood shed
by them be in vain. Long live our military veterans!”, Gukasyan said.

He said that, the NKR leadership will take care of them in the future
as well. The NKR defence army, which was formed to fight for the
republic’s freedom, remains the most reliable guarantor of security of
the NKR and its people. Today, when Azerbaijan is trying to turn the
history back and is cherishing revanchist hopes for the forcible
settlement of the Karabakh problem, “we should maintain the rate of
military construction and equip our army with up-to-date weapons and
improve its fighting skills”.

“At the same time, I again declare with all responsibility that the
NKR defence army is an army of peace. Its main task was and remains to
defend Nagornyy Karabakh and its people from external aggression. Be
confident: our army is ready at any moment to repulse the enemy, if it
dares to breach our peaceful life and infringe on our independence,”
he added.

Gukasyan said that this May holiday coincided with another important
event, i.e. the signing 10 years ago of a cease-fire agreement in the
zone of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan, Nagornyy
Karabakh and Armenia. Azerbaijan was forced to recognize Nagornyy
Karabakh as a party to the conflict and sign the truce with it
exclusively due to the successes of the Karabakh army. If cease-fire
has been preserved up till now, this is due to the strength and might
of the NKR defence army which defends our motherland.

“Precisely for this reason our army is also one of the effective
guarantors of maintaining a peaceful settlement of the conflict with
Azerbaijan. I would like to assure you that, as before, the NKR
leadership thinks that there is no alternative to a peaceful
settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh problem.

“Dear people of Artsakh, congratulations on the forthcoming holiday. I
would like to congratulate you all on the day of our common victory. I
wish peace, prosperity and happiness to all of us,” Gukasyan said.