Spitting triggers Jewish-Christian tension in Jerusalem’s Old City

Worldwide Faith News (press release)
Oct 19 2004

Spitting triggers Jewish-Christian tension in Jerusalem’s Old City

by Michele Green
Ecumenical News International

JERUSALEM – Tensions in Jerusalem’s Old City have flared following an
incident in which a Jewish seminary student spat at an archbishop
during a procession from the city’s Armenian Quarter to the Church of
the Holy Sepulchre, a site commemorating Jesus’ crucifixion and
burial.

Israeli police arrested the seminary student, but Christian clerics
living in the walled Old City say such assaults by ultra-Orthodox
Jews is a frequent occurrence.

“It happens maybe once a week,” Armenian Bishop Aris Shirvanian told
Ecumenical News International. “As soon as they notice a Christian
clergymanhey spit. Those who are ‘respectful’ turn their backs to us
or the largeross that we may carry but the ones that are daring
either spit on the ground or on the person without any provocation on
our part.”

In the Oct. 10 incident, a cross was ripped from the archbishop’s
neck when a scuffle broke out after the Jewish seminary student spat
at the cleric. The seminary student later told police he had done it
because he sawthe religious procession as idolatry. Police said the
man had been temporarily banned from visiting the Old City and that
he had been placed on bail pending an indictment.

Bishop Shirvanian said spitting against Christian clergyman had been
going on for years and that the assailants were religious Jews,
sometimes men but also women, teenagers and even children.

“This shows that it is a phenomenon that is prevailing in their
religious education and it should be corrected,” he said.

Daniel Rossing, director of the Jerusalem Center for Jewish-Christian
relations, said his organization was collating accounts of spitting
incidents so they could approach rabbis and demand they teach their
congregants to stop such attacks.

“All people are created in the image of God and to spit on another
person is to spit on the image of God,” Rossing said. He said that
usually the assailants were ultra-Orthodox Jews and the victims were
“people wearing liturgical vestments or are wearing a manifest
Christian symbol such as a cross.” Rossing said he believed the
attacks were carried out due to intolerance towards Christians by
ultra-Orthodox Jews as well as to anger from religious persecution in
past centuries.

Israeli police spokesman Gil Kleiman said few Christians file
complaints with police about such assaults and unless they did it was
impossible to arrest and prosecute the assailants.

“We can only act when we have been informed by a complainant. When we
do know about it we act immediately to arrest the person who did it
and bring them to justice,” Kleiman said.

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz said in an Oct. 12 editorial: “It is
intolerable that Christian citizens of Jerusalem suffer from the
shameful spitting at or near a crucifix. Similar behavior toward Jews
anywhere in the world would immediately prompt vehement responses.”

ARKA News Agency – 10/13/2004

ARKA News Agency
Oct 13 2004

Armenia should focus on mutually profitable cooperation with
entrepreneurs representing any country – PM Andranik Margarian

NKR PM calls on US businessmen of Armenian descent to invest in NKR
economy

Armenian President receives Chairman of Constitutional Court of
Russia

An International Armenia Economic Forum opened in Yerevan today

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ARMENIA SHOULD FOCUS ON MUTUALLY PROFITABLE COOPERATION WITH
ENTREPRENEURS REPRESENTING ANY COUNTRY – PM ANDRANIK MARGARIAN

YEREVAN, October 13. /ARKA/. Armenia should focus on mutually
profitable cooperation with entrepreneurs representing any country,
as Armenian PM Andranik Margarian stated when speaking at the
International Armenian Economic Forum in Yerevan. In his words, it is
necessary to use opportunities of entrepreneurs from the point of
mutually profitable cooperation and not only humanitarian and charity
actions. He said that liberal economy, legislative field and
investment climate in Armenia is favorable for implementation of
business programs and attracting new investments, while presence of
objective and subjective geopolitical reasons, that create definite
difficulties are temporary that can be overcame.
PM stressed that the objectives of the Government and the Forum are
same – continue the process of implementation of All-Armenian
projects launched few years ago for construction of a powerful and
flourishing state. He reported that with this purpose the country
holds numerous forums and conferences, creates associations of
business circles that should complete each other in order to use the
existing potential maximally. “This Forum is of a special character
as it is being attended by not only representatives of the Armenian
Diaspora, but also representatives of the international business
circles that is an opportunity not only unite the potential and
capacities of the Armenian Diaspora’s businessmen, but also to
present the situation in Armenia, tendencies of the development of
the Armenian economy, to involve the existing potential into
processes that are necessary for the further development of the
country”, Margarian said. T.M. -0–

*********************************************************************

NKR PM CALLS ON US BUSINESSMEN OF ARMENIAN DESCENT TO INVEST IN NKR
ECONOMY

STEPANAKERT, October 13. /ARKA/. Nagorno Karabakh Republic Prime
Minister Anushavan Danielyan called on the US businessmen of Armenian
descent to invest in NKR economy. As NKR Government Press Service
told ARKA, on the meeting with representatives of the Armenian
business circles of America, held in the frames of his visit to the
USA, Danielyan particularly called to invest in NKR’s IT sphere,
mentioning that if 3-4 years ago there was no necessary conditions
for the development of the field, today NKR telecommunication
services work quite successfully.
To remind on Oct 8 PM NKR Anushavan Danielyan began his visit to the
USA. The main purpose of the visit is preparation of TV marathon for
collection of funds for construction of “North-South” Highway in
Nagorno Karabakh under auspices of Hayatsan All Armenian Fund. During
his visit NKR PM met the Head of Armenain Eastern Diocese of the
Armenian Apostolic Church, Archbishop Hovnan Terteryan, Leaders of
eastern branches of Ramkavar-Azatakan party and ARF Dashanktutyun
party of the USA. T.M. -0–

*********************************************************************

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT RECEIVES CHAIRMAN OF CONSTITUTIONAL COURT OF
RUSSIA

YEREVAN, October 13. /ARKA/. Armenian President Robert Kocharian
received today Chairman of Constitutional Court of Russia Valery
Zorkin. As Armenian Government Press Service told ARKA, during the
meeting the sides discussed issues related to the constitutional
justice and the activity of the constitutional courts. Touching upon
the constitutional reforms in Armenia, Kocharian mentioned that they
in the first instance are targeted at making of the civil society,
strengthening of the stability in the country and establishing of
balanced relations among the various branches of the power. T.M. -0–

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AN INTERNATIONAL ARMENIA ECONOMIC FORUM OPENED IN YEREVAN TODAY

YEREVAN, October 13. /ARKA/. An International Armenia Economic Forum
(IAEF) has been opened in Yerevan today. As the President of the
World Armenian Congress, the Chairman of the Union of Armenians of
Russia Ara Abramyan stated during the ceremony of the opening of the
forum, the goal is to introduce the investment opportunities and the
economic field in Armenia. He noted that Armenians in different parts
of the world are ready to have their input in the development of
Armenia, however, because of the lack of information about the
situation in the economic, legislative and tax fields of the country,
the projects are not implemented. According to Abramyan, the forum
will give a chance to attract investments and develop business
projects in Armenia. “We want to have our input in the
social-economic development of Armenia by means of establishing
direct contacts with various countries at the governmental level, and
with business circles”, he said. Abramyan noted that with this aim
the World Armenian Congress establishes councils of businessmen. In
particular, such councils with the entrepreneurs from Argentina and
South Korea, which will allow establishing an Association of
Businessmen, which in future will involve the representatives of
business circles from Armenia and other states of CIS.
The IAEF is held for the first time in the framework of the Day of
the World Armenian Congress and the Union of Armenians of Russia and
NKR. The participants of the forum discuss such issues as the
perspectives o the development of SME in Armenia, perspectives of
increasing the amount of foreign investments into the economy of
Armenia, strategic directions of the participation of Armenian
Diaspora I n the development of RA. A.H. –0–

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Football results

Football results

The Guardian – United Kingdom
Oct 14, 2004

WORLD CUP QUALIFYING

European zone

Group One

Andorra (0) 1 Macedonia (0)

Bernaus 60 200

Armenia (0) 0 Cz Rep (2) 3

7,000 Koller 3, 76

Rosicky 30

Holland (2) 3 Finland (1) 1

Sneijder 39 Tainio 14

van Nistelrooy 41, 63 49,000

Group Two

Denmark (1) 1 Turkey (0) 1

Tomasson 26 (pen) Nihat 70

41,331

Kazakhstan (0) 0 Albania (0) 1

Bushaj 60

Ukraine (1) 2 Georgia (0)

Belyk 12 30,000

Shevchenko 82

Group Three

Latvia (0) 2 Estonia (0) 2

Astafjevs 54 Oper 72

Laizans 82 Teever 79

Luxembourg (0) 0 Liechtenstein (2) 4

3,478 Stocklasa 41

Burgmeier 44, 85

Frick 57 (pen)

Portugal (3) 7 Russia (0) 1

Pauleta 26 Arshavin 79

Ronaldo 39, 69

Deco 45

Simao 82

Petit 89, 90 27,258

Group Four

Cyprus (0) 0 France (1) 2

8,000 Wiltord 38

Henry 71

Rep of Ireland (2) 2 Faroe Islands (0)

Keane 14 (pen), 33

36,000

Group Five

Italy (2) 4 Belarus (0) 2

Totti 27 (pen), 74 Romaschenko 54, 88

De Rossi 32 Bulyga 77

Gilardino 86

Moldova (1) 1 Scotland (1) 1

Dadu 28 Thompson 31

14,000

Norway (1) 3 Slovenia (0)

Carew 6 24,907

Pedersen 59

Odegaard 89

Group Six

Azerbaijan (0) 0 England (1) 1

15,000 Owen 22

N Ireland (1) 3 Austria (1) 3

Healy 35 Schopp 14, 72

Murdock 60 Mayrleb 61

Elliott 90 20,000

Wales (0) 2 Poland (0) 3

Earnshaw 55 Frankowski 72

Hartson 90 Zurawski 81

74,000 Krzynowek 85

Group Seven

Lithuania (0) 0 Spain (0)

9,000

Serbia & M (2) 5 San Marino (0)

Milosevic 35 5,000

Stankovic 45, 50

Koroman 52

Vukic 69

Group Eight

Bulgaria (1) 4 Malta (1) 1

Berbatov 43, 56 Mifsud 11

Yanev 47 18,746

Yankov 87

17,700

Iceland (0) 1 Sweden (4) 4

Gudjohnsen 66 Larsson 23, 38

Allback 27

Wilhelmsson 44

ASIAN ZONE

Stage two

Group one: Laos 2 Jordan 3; Qatar 2 Iran 3. Group two: Iraq 1 Uzbekistan 2.

Group three: Oman 0 Japan 1; Singapore 1 India 0.

Group four: Hong Kong 2 Malaysia 0; Kuwait 1 China PR 0.

Group five: Korea DPR 2 Yemen 1; Thailand 3 United Arab Emirates 0.

Group six: Syria 2 Bahrain 2; Tajikistan 2 Kyrgyzstan 1.

Group seven: Lebanon 1 South Korea 1; Maldives 3 Vietnam 0.

EUROPEAN U-21 C’SHIP QUALIFYING

Group One: Armenia 0 Cz Rep 4.

BARCLAYS PREMIERSHIP RES LEAGUE

Northern Section: Sunderland 0 West Brom 3.

PONTIN’S HOLIDAYS LEAGUE

Premier Division: Sheff Utd 1 Stoke 0; Tranmere 1 Wigan 0.

First Division: West: Blackpool 1 Stockport 3; Burnley L Bury L; Macclesfield
1 Shrewsbury 0; Man Utd 4 Chester 1.

PONTIN’S HOLIDAYS INSURANCE LEAGUE

Division One: East: Doncaster 4 Grimsby 2; Huddersfield 2 Darlington 0;
Lincoln 1 Scunthorpe 1; Notts County 5 Boston Utd 3.

PONTIN’S HOLIDAYS COMBINATION

Central & East Division: Oxford Utd 1 Milton Keynes 1 (abandoned at
half-time).

League Cup: Preliminary: Group stage: Brighton 0 QPR 0.

NATIONWIDE WOMEN’S PREMIER LEAGUE

Birmingham 2 Arsenal 5; Bristol Rovers 2 Bristol City 2; Leeds Utd L
Doncaster Rovers L; Liverpool 1 Everton 5.

Confederation of Indian industry plans to open Yerevan office

CONFEDERATION OF INDIAN INDUSTRY PLANS TO OPEN YEREVAN OFFICE

ArmenPress
Oct 12 2004

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 12, ARMENPRESS: The chairman of Confederation of
Indian Industry (CII) Kunna Kutty told in Yerevan on Monday that
the CII plans to open its office in Yerevan. Speaking at a joint
news conference with the chairman of Armenian Commerce and Industry
Chamber Martin Sarkisian following the signing of a memorandum of
understanding between the two, Mr. Kutty said the Confederation has
around 5 million members, 43 offices in India and 18 overseas.

The MoU was signed on the sidelines of an exhibition of Indian products
and services in Armenia. Mr. Kutty said that the MoU will be the
first step towards economic cooperation between the two countries.

Some 30 Armenian specialists in informational technology have training
course in India’s Bangalor annually, which is the center of the
country’s burgeoning IT.

Vardan Oskanian Stresses Importance Of Programs Being Implemented In

VARDAN OSKANIAN STRESSES IMPORTANCE OF PROGRAMS BEING IMPLEMENTED IN ARMENIA
BY EURASIA FOUNDATION

YEREVAN, October 11 (Noyan Tapan). The ten-year graant program being
implemented in Armenia by the Euurasia foundation addresses almost
all the spheres of civil life, President of the foundation Charles
Maynes and members of the board of trustees told at their October
11 meeting with RA Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian. Many of the
initiatves the organization has taken, the meeting participants
said, were unprecedented in the history of Armenia. Here belong the
university-level business management program, the first large-scale
program for municipal reforms, the first program for crediting
small enterprizes, the first campaign of national dialogue, and
the independent publishing system aimed at encouraging the freedom
of press. Minister Oskanian hailed the foundation’s activities in
Armenia stressing the importance of such programs for a country at
the transition stage. The RA Foreign Ministry’s Press and Information
Department reported to NT, the minister then outlined the general
regional state dwelling upon the recent developments of the Karabakh
conflict settlement and Armenian-Turkish relations. The Eurasia
foundation has been acting in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzia, Moldova, Russia, and Tajikistan. The headqaurters
is situated in Washington. The foundation has been acting in Armenia
since 1995.

Armenia has chances to become a regional youth center – YA Chair

ArmenPress
Oct 8 2004

ARMENIA HAS CHANCES TO BECOME A REGIONAL YOUTH CENTER, YOUTH ALLIANCE
CHAIRMAN SAYS

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 8, ARMENPRESS: Supported by the European Council
Youth Foundation, the Armenian Alliance of Youth Clubs organized a
seminar titled “Impact of conflicts on environment” in Sevan on Oct
5-11 which discussed regional conflicts. Delegates from Azerbaijan,
Georgia and a number of European countries participate in the
seminar.
The chairman of the alliance, Atom Mkhitarian, mentioned that
Europe wants to see a coordinated youth policy in the region. The
fact that delegates from Azerbaijan also participate indicates that
Armenia has a chance to become a regional youth center which will
contribute to implementation of many youth projects.
The governor of Gegharkunik Stepan Barseghian spoke about the
damages caused to the region by the Karabagh conflict, saying that
both the economy and the ecology suffered from it. According to him,
unemployment is high in the region as some 15,000 refugees live
there. Concurrently, it was mentioned that agriculture has been
developing in the region recently. A whole-sale agricultural market
is built near Georgian border in Bagratashen where the farmers may
realize their output.
In S. Barseghian’s opinion the war has changed the images of trust
among the regional nations and such seminars may help to recover it.
Highly evaluating the organization of the seminar, representatives
from Azerbaijan noted that special attention should be paid to
environmental protection issues. In their opinion, because the land
is mined in the conflict zone, it is impossible to use for
agricultural purposes. Such contacts may help to build understanding
between the two nations when the Karabagh conflict is resolved, they
said.
Speaking on the refusal to host Armenian delegation for NATO
sponsored Partnership for Peace project, the Azeri said it had
political motives. “We think that Armenian public figures will not
meet obstacles when visiting Azerbaijan while the visit of military
men should be decided on the state level,” they said.

The Mystery of The Caspian Oil Boom

THE MYSTERY OF THE CASPIAN OIL BOOM

PART ONE

Contemporary Review
September 2004
Vol. 285, No. 1664

By Alec Rasizade

It is hard to think of an industry that has a hype machine as
phenomenal as the potential Caspian energy industry. Ever since the
disintegration of the USSR in 1991, the Caspian Basin has been touted
as one of the world’s largest new energy sources. This was partly
because the region had been off-limits to the West for so long that
its potential was genuinely unknown. In addition, the political
instability in the Persian Gulf had underscored the need to find
dependable energy resources outside the Middle East. As a result, the
premise of an ‘enormous” Caspian energy wealth was invented as a
justification for geopolitical manoeuvres by Western powders to fill
the strategic void left in the region after the Russian withdrawal.

But it is now becoming increasingly clear that the hydrocarbon
deposits in the Caspian Basin are much lower than bas been believed in
the West, that the Caspian’s energy promise has been deliberately
exaggerated and that production from the area will never make a major
contribution to the world’s energy security. Whatever the final size
of reserves, it is now obvious that much of the talk of Caspian oil
was a spectacular bluff. When the late Azeri president Heydar Aliev
painted a majestic picture of the Caspian energy potential at the 2001
World Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland), his Armenian counterpart,
Robert Kocharian, famously retorted: “Is there any water in the
Caspian, or is it only oil”.

As the Canadian researcher Robert Cutler once observed, the Caspian
oil rush was akin to a high-stakes game of cards. It was complicated
further by the fact that the cards were being played within another
strategic game of chess, with other rules, played by the great powers
at a large geopolitical chessboard. With a relative consolidation of
the chessboard into patterns, at least temporarily, the Caspian oil
game is now more or less settled. Although the myth survives from the
old days of the card game, strategy as opposed to tactics has become
the conditioning environment in the region, as in a chess game.

Instead of the politically bloated appraisal of 200 billion barrels in
ostensible Caspian oil deposits (compared with Saudi Arabia’s 262
billion) valued at 4 trillion US dollars, exuberantly calculated for
the past decade by the Department of State to justify its own strategy
there, we are talking today of only 18 billion to 30 billion barrels,
according to another US government agency, the Energy Information
Administration (EIA). Estimates by the international Energy Agency
(IEA) in Paris range between 17 to 32 billion barrels. As for natural
gas, there is an agreement that proven reserves are about 6.5 trillion
cubic metres, with Turkmenistan holding the largest deposits outside
Russia.

Five major projects are currently underway in the Caspian Basin – four
of which account for some 70 per cent of total reserves. These are the
offshore Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli oil fields block and the Shah Deniz
offshore gas field in Azerbaijan, Tengiz and Karachaganak onshore, and
Kashagan offshore fields in Kazakstan. While other prospects exist,
particularly in Kazakstan, they are not likely to make any major
impact regional production in the future. The famous old onshore oil
fields around Baku, which in the early twentieth century produced half
of the entire world oil production, are now exhausted, and new
deposits have not been found.

All post-Soviet geological explorations have as yet failed to find
sufficiently large new deposits, except for the Kashagan oil field in
Kazakstan’s sector of the sea discovered by the Italian state energy
concern ENI. After drilling many dry wells, the area that had been
pushed by the US Department of State as an alternative to the Persian
Gulf was dismissed latterly as a product of Washington propaganda.

Caspian Oil and Global Energy Needs

The industrial world is now looking for oil beyond the Middle
East. The resources found in new areas will be critical to ensuring
global energy stability. It is also understood that the petroleum
demand will increase sharply and that oil import dependence will rise
too. Indeed, according to the lEA, with a continued growth of the
world economy by 3 per cent, its energy demand will increase at the
rate of 2 per cent annually, meaning that the world will need 65 per
cent more energy in 2020 than in 1995. Ninety-five per cent of this
additional energy demand will be met by fossil fuels – coal, oil and
gas. In absolute terms, some 92 per cent of the total primary energy
demand in 2020 will be fossil-fuel-based.

In recent years the Middle East OPEC (Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries) countries have supplied 52-57 per cent of the
world consumption. The most optimistic reserve estimates for Caspian
oil pale in comparison with those for the Middle East, which holds
over 680 billion barrels or some 60 per cent of the world’s total
(1147 billion barrels). Caspian reserves, which have been depleted
over the past hundred years of intensive Soviet production, are
certainly not another Persian Gulf or Siberia, and not even a new
North Sea. The North Sea’s oil reserves were 60-70 billion barrels
(compared to Caspian’s 18-30 billion), of which about 17 billion
barrels still remain.

The combined Caspian output will never rival that of Saudi Arabia or
Russia, which produce respectively 8.8 million and 7.1 million barrels
of oil per day (mbd). The table below provides a
comparison. Production in 2003 from all four Caspian countries
amounted to 1.65 mbd, or about 2 per cent of the world’s total
production. Using the projected levels of production, the Caspian
Basin is expected to contribute no more than 3 per cent to global oil
supply by 2010, and even less thereafter.

———————————-
The world’s largest crude oil producers in 2003
(Source: IEA, Annual Review of World Energy, Paris:
OECD, 2003)
Country Reserves (billion barrels) Production
(mbd)
Saudi Arabia 262 8.8
Iran 131 3.7
Iraq 115 2.4
UAE 98 2.4
Kuwait 98 2.1
Venezuela 78 3.4
Russia 69 7.1
USA 30 7.7
Libya 29 1.4
Mexico 27 3.6
Nigeria 24 2.3
—————————————————-

Kazakstan, which holds 65 per cent of the Caspian Basin’s oil
reserves, is not even in this table. Thus, from an energy security
perspective, the Caspian is not a source for diversification of global
oil supplies, for it will remain only a small player on the world
market. It can compete neither with the Middle East, nor with other
marginal suppliers, such as Nigeria, which exports daily more crude
oil than all Caspian producers together.

Besides, in terms of profitability, most estimators have concluded
that a price of at least $20 per barrel is needed to justify the
Caspian investment projects and, if the price fell below $20 a barrel,
most Caspian oil consortia would no longer be profitable.

One of the differences that set the land-locked Caspian Basin apart
from the North Sea and other marginal suppliers is the difficulty of
getting the oil and gas production to world markets. The energy
transportation systems of the Caspian region were originally designed
and built to serve the strategic needs of the Soviet Union. Almost all
oil and gas export pipelines inherited from the USSR pass through
Russia. All other routing options are fraught with technical,
financial, legal and political difficulties.

The proposed alternative pipelines must pass through – or take
expensive detours to avoid – politically troubled mountainous areas
where they could become targets for terrorists.

Additional risks originate from the fact that the Caspian states,
still ran by totalitarian-era leaders whose principal goal is to
preserve their power, are all authoritarian, destitute and
corrupt. With virtually all opposition prohibited and oil export
revenues being siphoned off to the raling elite’s foreign bank
accounts, the population at large have seen a decline instead of an
improvement in their living standards during the professed ‘oil boom’
decade, and consequently the potential risks of political extremism
and terrorism in this predominantly Muslim region are appalling.

The Purpose of Caspian Megalomania

There is now emerging a question as to whether the Caspian Basin is of
major strategic importance, apart from all the oil-boom rhetoric of
public statements.

Is the Western interest in this peripheral region derivative of
broader security and energy concerns, those having to do with the
Middle East, Russia, Iran, China, and Islamic radicalism? Austere
insights that challenge the big-oil policy there are not encouraged,
and interlopers known for particular diligence in trying to ferret out
facts even endanger their personal safety. If the Caspian oil reserves
are not so extensive, why is it so essential for the West to be there?

The first reason is geopolitical. In the so-called Silk Road Strategy
Act of 1999, Transcaucasia represents an important geopolitical
isthmus, linking the Black and Caspian Seas and providing the West
with a ‘silk road’ to Central Asia. By reanimating the ‘silk road’,
which would avoid passing through Iran (historically its integral
part), Washington is trying to limit Russia’s influence in the region,
while at the same time restricting the number of potential allies for
Tehran.

However, the economic appeal of the Silk Road Strategy pertaining to
the presumed transportation significance of the region has become
absurd since the sixteenth century when it lost its value as the Great
Silk Route (transcontinental trade route that linked China to the
Mediterranean for 1500 years) due to the great maritime explorations
and the fact that the cheapest way to move goods between Europe and
Asia is by sea, not by land. Remaining since then on the periphery of
the ‘global economy’, the Caspian region does not constitute by itself
an area of vital strategic interest for the West.

Secondly, the interest of international oil companies in sustaining
the Caspian energy phantom can easily be explained by their motivation
of profit. All of these ventures are joint-stock companies whose
shareholders derive their main profit not from increasing dividends
based on successful commercial activity but from the rising price of
their shares on the stock exchange and oil futures on the mercantile
exchange. This is the very essence of Western business activity in the
Caspian Basin. By participating in high-profile Caspian projects and
issuing rosy reports of great resources, oil companies improve their
stock image, generating an instant profit without pumping a single
barrel of oil. In fact, to begin seriously extracting oil would be
counter-productive given the danger that the true extent of oil
reserves would then be exposed. The recent disclosure at Royal Dutch
Shell, that it would reduce its ‘proven’ oil and gas reserves by a
remarkable one-fifth, has revealed that share prices are dictated not
by real economic indicators but by the aura of promise affirmed by
motivated Wall Street analysts. In the months since Shell’s
announcement, BP-Amoco, Chevron-Texaco, Exxon-Mobil and several other
oil corporations operating in the Caspian Basin have also announced
revisions of their reserves spurred by the investigation into the
discrepancy started by the US Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC).

The investigation ensures that even the degraded appraisal of the
Caspian oil potential would further diminish as soon as the SEC
implements its new requirement that all energy firms whose shares are
traded in the USA have their reserves reviewed by independent
auditors.

Third motive: why do the local governments cheat on the contracts they
are only too willing to sign, and how do they benefit from that? All
Caspian governments are fully aware of the obvious truism in
international politics: the greater the oil reserves – the more
tolerant Western governments are in overlooking a poor human rights
record of a petroleum-based regime. A regime with less significant oil
production provokes more international scrutiny of the status of local
democracy. Aside from the tumid sense of self-importance that the
Caspian oil bestows upon them, their objective is entirely pragmatic:
the more foreign investment – the easier to perpetuate autocratic rule
and keep popular discontent at bay with tales of an oil-boom
prosperity lying ahead, not to mention the Western slush funds and
kickbacks for the ruling elite, which do not even enter the Caspian
countries and are directly deposited in leaders’ personal bank
accounts abroad. For instance, the Azeri government has grossly
underreported the huge ‘signature bonuses’ received after auctioning
the concession rights to a prime deep-water oil fields block in 1994,
and told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it received $285
million in bonus payments.

But the consortium of oil companies, called Azerbaijan International
Operating Company (AIOC), claimed that they paid Azeri leaders for the
same block $400 million in bonuses. A 2001 investigative report in New
Yorker magazine asserted that Western oil conglomerates paid tens of
millions of dollars in ‘commissions’ to top Kazak officials, including
President Nazarbaev. Swiss authorities have frozen bank accounts held
by Nazarbaev on which he has accumulated over one billion dollars
through shady deals with American oil firms, after his government sold
in 1996 its 20 per cent stake in the Tengiz oil field. Under the
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977, a federal court in New York is
now hearing this case, known as ‘Kazakgate’, involving James Giffen,
an American banker linked to Nazarbaev. The indictment alleges that
between 1995 and 1999, this former consultant to the Kazak government
laundered $78 million unlawfully paid by big oil companies to
Nazarbaev and other Kazak officials.

In 1999, the OECD adopted its own ‘Convention Against Bribery of
Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions’,
which has never been implemented in the most corrupt Caspian
states. The affair of Viktor Kozeny, rogue Czech businessman, has
brilliantly illuminated the Convention’s hypocritical ethos.

For $6.3 million, Mr. Kozeny obtained 25 per cent of the 7.5 million
vouchers issued by the Azeri government in 1997 for privatization of
state property amongst its citizens. Then he raised $450 million from
an American investment group with the intention of participating in
the anticipated privatization of Azerbaijan’s national oil
company. The Azeri leadership subsequently ruled that the company
should remain state-owned. American investors maintain that they took
part in the buying of vouchers after assurances from the Azeri
government, and are now suing in London and New York President Aliev
Junior and his privatization officials for $100 million. Kozeny swore
in the court that President Aliev Senior personally demanded hefty
kickbacks in 1998 in exchange for his favorable decision, and insisted
that he gave him $83 million.

Finally, as we live in the age and under the infiuence of mass media
cheerleaders, one should mention the articulate lobby that has emerged
in the West and cultivated since 1991 the mythology of the Caspian
bonanza in collaboration with a sensationalist press. It comprises a
welter of numerous think-tanks, law firms, investment bankers, trade
associations, construction companies, effusive journalists, television
talking heads, big oil-controlled politicians, aspiring academics,
retired diplomats who ‘consult’ for oil corporations, hungry local
officials, agile Western expatriates in the region and unemployed
Caspian emigres in the West: they all profess in unison that the
Caspian is an enormous sea of oil because they all are hoping for a
pecuniary piece of investment action in the form of research funding,
construction contracts, personal assignments, consulting fees or mere
employment.

It is disheartening for a veracious researcher to debunk this Caspian
megalomania. Big oil sponsors scores of political flunkies,
influential celebrities and lobbyists, ‘business councils’, academic
activities and publications confirming the region’s great oil
potential, and withdraws high-priced advertising from those polemical
periodicals which sow the seeds of doubt and rock their Caspian boat.

The Baku-Jeyhan and Alternative Oil Export Projects

After many years of deliberation, construction of the
Baku-Tbilisi-Jeyhan (Turkey’s Mediterranean coast) main export
pipeline was launched near Baku in 2002. The capacity of this 1730 km
line will be 50 million tons of oil per year. The cost is estimated at
around $4 billion, compared to $1 billion for a new export pipeline to
the Persian Gulf through Iran.

However, Baku-Jeyhan is not econoniically feasible. It needs a daily
throughput of one million barrels of oil to be financially
justified. Azerbaijan produces less than 15 million tons a year, while
Kazakstan produces more than 40 million tons. Even the existing
Baku-Supsa (Georgia’s Black Sea coast) pipeline is being currently
filled only to one-quarter of its 18 million-ton annual
capacity. Where will the oil needed to fill the 50 million-ton
Baku-Jeyhan line come from? Azerbaijan will be able to produce only
about 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) when all its consortia reach their
peak by 2010, and even less thereafter. For comparison, Kuwait is
producing 2.14mbd, its quota from the OPEC, and has enough oil to pump
2 million barrels daily for 132 years. According to all geological
appraisals, Azerbaijan has enough oil reserves for only 27 years at
its current level of production.

Such major companies operating in the Caspian Basin as Exxon-Mobil,
Chevron-Texaco, Royal Dutch Shell, ENI of Italy and Lukoil of Russia
have been asked but declined to join this project so insistently
promoted by the US, Turkish, Georgian and Azeri governments. The
failure of negotiations frustrated the project’s long bid to draw
additional oil from Kazakstan to fill the pipeline’s 1 mbd
capacity. British Petroleum (the chief operator of the Baku-Jeyhan
project) insists that there will be no such problem and that
Azerbaijan’s own oil alone will be enough. But studies by two
independent research groups in Washington, the Cato Institute and the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, have calculated that the
Baku-Jeyhan pipeline would need $200 million per year in subsidies
from the US government to remain viable.

Other oil companies favour cheaper alternatives that would use the
existing pipeline facilities. They would send an extra 100,000 bpd
west through Baku-Supsa, an extra 100,000 bpd north, through
Baku-Novorossiysk, and 100,000 bpd south to Iran, to be swapped for
export shipments from its Persian Gulf terminals.

This combination could handle all the extra oil Azerbaijan hopes to
export over the next ten years, and if additional pipelines are needed
later, there will be time and money then. Such diversification has
been fiercely resisted by the USA and Turkey for fear of damaging the
prospects for their Baku-Jeyhan geopolitical project.

Meanwhile, Russia has completed in 2002 its 1,580-kilometer
North-Caspian pipeline linking Kazakstan’s Tengiz oil field to
Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Tengiz is the world’s
sixth-largest land field with 9 billion barrels of oil in reserves and
is operated by Chevron-Texaco.

The announcement of the Kashagan discovery worth 7.8 billion barrels
of oil off the coast of Kazakstan has generated some excitement. Since
Azerbaijan’s reserves are insufficient, supporters of the Baku-Jeyhan
project are hoping that Kashagan could provide the needed volumes of
oil that Azerbaijan lacks through an additional underwater pipeline to
be built from Aktau (Kazakstan) to Baku.

However, when Kashagan does begin producing oil in earnest, its export
through the existing nearby pipeline from Tengiz to Novorossiysk will
make far more commercial sense for its operator ENI than a commitment
to the Baku-Jeyhan project. The North-Caspian line has ample excess
export capacity even when it accommodates the projected peak
production of 750,000 bpd anticipated from Tengiz by 2010.

In next month’s issue Alec Rasizade continues his investigation of
Alternative Oil Export Projects.

Symphonic Orchestra Is A Priority

SYMPHONIC ORCHESTRA IS A PRIORITY

Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
06 Oct 04

On September 30 the art director and conductor of the Artsakh
Symphonic Orchestra Gevorg Muradian gave a press conference for the
local and foreignmass media. The problems and aims of the orchestra
were also presented by concertmaster Ashot Jenterejian and the
director of the orchestra Simon Sarghissian. Gevorg Muradian pointed
out that the arrival of the 12 musicians from Yerevan does not pursue
mercantile aims. The aim is to create a strong and integrated team,
and also establish a quality school of violin (if possible also alt
and cello) in Artsakh. `That our ideas, problems and aims were
approvedand assisted by the NKR government and the Armenian General
Benevolent Union is the evidence to the fact that the creation of the
state symphonic orchestra is of national importance.’ The conductor of
the orchestra believes that the mass media can contribute to this
undertaking by covering the activity of the orchestra not only in
Artsakh but also in Armenia and the Diaspora. `If the orchestra is to
make achievements, these should be displayed to public, as we consider
thisto have a political context as well,’ said Gevorg Muradian. In
reference to the establishment of the school of violin in Artsakh
Ashot Jenterejian emphasized that these two years (the term of the
contracts of the musicians) are not enough for such an important
process which will take at least 5-6 years. Mr. Jenterejian said that
three musicians already work at the Shoushi Music School after
D. Ghazarian. Gevorg Muradian said that as distinct of the Shoushi
Music School the music schools of Stepanakert did not apply to
them. The conductor has not met yet with the director of the musical
college to decide on the worksof the musicians from Yerevan. In
reference to the local musicians, Mr. Jenterejian did not hide that
there are problems with them, mainly of professional character which
will be solved by all means. According to him, these are purely the
problems of the experienced musicians and they are ready to do their
best for overcoming similar difficulties. In reference to the question
of how the problem of musicians will be solved after the expiry of the
two-year contract, the concertmaster and the conductor mentioned that
the problem may be solved through cooperation of the both ministries
of culture, by either alternative military service, or arrangement
between the ministries and the conservatoire of Yerevan to send
graduates of the conservatoire to work in the orchestra.

SUSANNA BALAYAN.
06-10-2004

Russian, Armenian speakers discuss Georgian border closure

Russian, Armenian speakers discuss Georgian border closure

Arminfo
1 Oct 04

YEREVAN

On 1 October in Yerevan, Armenian Speaker Artur Bagdasaryan and
Russian Federation Council Speaker Sergey Mironov discussed the
transport situation that has lately come about on the Russian-Georgian
border.

“Armenian friends have taken Russia’s measures with understanding,”
Mironov told a briefing following the meeting, adding that “the sides
should tackle this task taking into account the interests of Armenia,
which is Russia’s strategic partner in the Caucasus”.

“We need to resolve this situation in a way that will not affect the
transport problems of Armenia,” Mironov said. There are still Chechen
fighters in Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge, which was also proved by [Chechen
rebel president] Aslan Maskhadov in his interview to Georgian TV.

[Passage omitted: a joint statement was signed by Russian and Armenian
speakers]

Beyond Beslan, The Caucasus’s Fissures Run Deep

Beyond Beslan, The Caucasus’s Fissures Run Deep
Jean-Christophe Peuch

23/09/2004 | RFE/RL |

Analysis. Prague. Gunmen with links to Chechen separatists seized
a school in Russia’s autonomous republic of North Ossetia on 1
September. The three-day hostage crisis ended with the death of more
than 330 people, nearly half of them children.

The tragedy — for which radical Chechen field command Shamil
Basaev has claimed responsibility — sent a shockwave across the
small northern Caucasus republic, which more than a decade ago saw
predominantly Orthodox Christian Ossetians clash with minority Muslim
Ingush. Although the conflict lasted only six days, it claimed hundreds
of lives.

Moscow’s initial claims that some of the Beslan hostage takers were
Ingush have sparked concerns that the crisis could rekindle interethnic
and interreligious strife in the North Caucasus region.

Convinced that their Ingush neighbors bear responsibility for the
Beslan bloodshed, some Ossetians have vowed to retaliate for the
death of children and other relatives. Others fear Moscow’s apparent
reluctance to shed light on the tragedy might prompt the Ossetians to
simply look for scapegoats. As for Vladikavkaz resident Ruslan Bzarov,
he believes Ossetians on both sides of the Russian-Georgian border
are being victimized.Whatever the consequences of the Beslan tragedy,
it will remain a milestone in the Caucasus’s troubled history.

“We Ossetians feel depressed and paralyzed by humiliation,” Bzarov
tells RFE/RL’s North Caucasus Service. “We understand that what
happened did not happen by chance. We are in the center of the
Caucasus. For 15 years now, we’ve been struggling so that our people
are reunited. First, there were attempts to bring South Ossetia to
its knees, then this tragedy in North Ossetia. We were hit because
we’re Ossetians. The pain we’re enduring, I think, will force us to
assess the situation and stick together,” he adds.

Whatever the consequences of the Beslan tragedy, it will remain a
milestone in the Caucasus’s troubled history.

Home to speakers of over 50 languages, this mountainous area had a
long record of unrest before the Bolsheviks imposed their rule in
the early 1920s. The breakup of the Soviet empire in the late 1980s
brought new disturbances and armed rebellions that, for the most part,
continue today.

The region, in part, owes its past troubles to its strategic location
at the crossroads of civilizations.

Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Khazars, Huns, Mongols, Persians, Seljuks,
Arabs, and Ottomans have throughout history partly dominated the
Caucasus, giving the region its ethnic, linguistic, and religious
complexity.

Then, in the 18th century, came the Russians. And with the Russians
more conflict.

Marie Bennigsen-Broxup is a leading expert on the Caucasus and the
editor of the London-based “Central Asian Survey” quarterly. She
tells RFE/RL that the arrival of the Russians marked a turning point
in the region’s history.

“Historically, I think, a first event that would kind of set the
tone for future developments was the uprising led by Sheikh Mansur
at the end of the 18th century, during the reign of Catherine
the Great. Sheikh Mansur was a Chechen and it was under him that
for the first time a coalition of northern Caucasus peoples made
up exclusively of Muslims fought the advance of Russian troops,”
Bennigsen-Broxup says.

“Then, with Georgia asking to join Russia [as protection against the
Ottoman Turks], we see a first real cleavage emerge between Muslim
and Christian Orthodox nations. It is also around that time that
Russia started relying on the partially Christianized Ossetians to
expand its territorial conquests [in the north],” she adds.

Sheikh Mansur’s uprising was ruthlessly quelled in the late 1780s-early
1790s and its leader imprisoned in the Schlusselburg fortress.

Unrest resumed a few decades later under the guidance of a
Daghestani-born Sufi mullah, known as Imam Shamil. It took Russia
nearly a quarter-century to defeat the new rebellion and become the
unrivaled power in the region.

Thornike Gordadze, who teaches Caucasus history at the Paris-based
Institute of Political Studies, argues Russia’s military power is
not the only reason for Shamil’s failure.

“Shamil is the only leader who ever managed — though imperfectly —
to unify the North Caucasus against the Russians. But [paradoxically],
by dividing its territory into separate regions and trying to impose
his own lieutenants at the head of each region, he was also, in a way,
responsible for the division and feudalization of the Caucasus. In the
final analysis this is what precipitated his political and military
end,” he says.

Whatever his errors, Shamil’s legacy remains vivid in the North
Caucasus, especially among Chechens.

The aforementioned Shamil Basaev was reportedly named after the
legendary Daghestani mullah. Born in Vedeno, near the place where
Imam Shamil eventually surrendered to Russian troops in 1859, Basaev
reportedly claims ancestry from one of the imam’s Chechen lieutenants.

For most Russians, Basaev is nothing more than a terrorist. But,
despite his fighting alongside Moscow-backed Abkhaz separatists in
the early 1990s, he is seen by many in the North Caucasus as a symbol
of Chechnya’s struggle for independence against Russia.

In December 1994, Russian President Boris Yeltsin ordered troops to
invade Chechnya and bring the breakaway republic back into the fold.

Confronted with a series of military setbacks, the Kremlin agreed to
sign a peace agreement in 1996. But war resumed three years later.

The two successive conflicts have already claimed tens of thousands of
lives — mostly civilians — and, despite President Vladimir Putin’s
assurances, nothing suggests a quick end to the fighting.

For nearly 10 years separatist fighters have been scoffing at Russia,
raiding military positions in areas nominally under federal control,
and carrying out attacks outside of Chechnya.

Separatist movements had stirred the Caucasus even before Chechnya
declared its independence.

In June 1988, Azerbaijan’s predominantly ethnic Armenian enclave
of Nagorno-Karabakh demanded to join Soviet Armenia, triggering war
between Yerevan and Baku.

Further north, Abkhazia and South Ossetia seceded from the government
of Georgia’s nationalist leader Zviad Gamsakhurdia before forcibly
winning de facto independence.

Experts believe the Karabakh conflict could have been easily prevented
were it not for the Soviet leadership’s failure — whether deliberate
or not — to correctly assess political developments in the region.

Moscow, which lent military and political support to both the Abkhaz
and South Ossetian separatists, is similarly blamed for Georgia’s
separatist conflicts.

But for Ronald Grigor Suny, who teaches Georgian history at the
University of Chicago, things are not so clear-cut.

“During the Soviet period, the Abkhaz went through a number of
different levels of control over their republic, always, of course,
under the ultimate authority of Moscow. Up to the 1930s Abkhazia was
a union republic but then, gradually, as you move into the 1930s and
on, it lost power [over its territory] as control was taken over by
the Georgians and there was a kind of ‘Georgianization’ of Abkhazia.

This, of course, led to bad feelings and antagonism and when the
Abkhaz had a chance, eventually, they asserted their rights. When the
Soviet Union collapsed, the Abkhaz became fearful because the empire —
the umpire — was gone. They felt they had to reassert their control
and they very radically took over their little republic, throwing
the Georgians out,” Suny says.

Ethnic and religious diversity is often cited as the main source of
unrest in the Caucasus. Georgians and Russians have, in the past,
blamed religion for their conflicts with the Abkhaz and Chechens,
respectively.

Yet, Suny argues cultural diversity is not enough to spur
violence. During the 19th century, Armenians were the predominant
ethnic group in the Georgian capital Tiflis and dominated the city’s
economic life. Yet, as he points out, peace between Armenians and
Georgians prevailed.

“What you have in the Caucasus, even more acutely than almost anywhere
else, is a combination of ethnicity, political power, and territorial
control. In other words, each little unit is contested by a particular
ethnicity that considers that unit to be its national homeland and
it doesn’t want interference, or it fears control by another. So
you’ve got this very intense struggle where ethnicity, politics,
and territory all match — or want to match — each other and you
have problems with other peoples who wish they had sovereign control
over that area,” Suny says.

Soviet rulers are responsible for what historians call the “ultimate
ethnicization” of the Caucasus.

“In the 19th century, especially in the North Caucasus, ethnic
borders were extremely blurred and ethnicity was not the most
salient identity. People were defining themselves with regard to
a particular clan, or village, or ‘cemaat’ (religious community)
— as in Daghestan for example — or even to a vague Caucasian or
[Circassian] identity. Someone living on the territory of Chechnya
was unable to define himself, or herself, as a Chechen, Ingush,
or Kabard. Today, ethnicity is really what helps Chechens define
themselves and the current ethnic borders that exist [in the region]
have been drawn up by the Soviet administration,” Gordadze said.

Soviet leader Josef Stalin further encouraged divisions in the Caucasus
by sponsoring scientific studies and population censuses that promoted
ethnic identity among its various peoples.

He notably drew an artificial line between Adygeis, Kabards, and
Cherkess, who were actually various subgroups of a single northwestern
Caucasian people.

Stalin’s “divide and rule” policy culminated in the deportation of
entire ethnic groups for alleged collaboration with Nazi occupation
troops during World War II.

In 1943 and 1944, hundreds of thousands of Karachais, Chechens, Ingush,
Balkars, Kalmuks, and Meskhetians were forcibly sent to the deserted
Central Asian steppes, where many of them died.

Most of these “punished peoples” — as late historian Aleksandr
Nekrich once called them — were rehabilitated and allowed to return
home after Stalin’s death. Others, like the Meskhetians, are still
fighting for rehabilitation and remain scattered throughout the former
Soviet Union pending their hypothetical return to southern Georgia.

In parallel to the deportation of entire populations, the Soviet
leader ordered that the administrative borders of the Caucasus be
redelineated.

The Checheno-Ingush Autonomous Republic was abolished and part of its
territory given to neighboring North Ossetia. When Ingush returned
from exile in the late 1950s, many of them discovered that their
property had been sold to Ossetians following the transfer of the
territory to North Ossetia.

A similar pattern was followed in the Karachai Republic after its
predominant ethnic group was deported and parts of the autonomy given
to other regions.

Bennigsen-Broxup says that Stalin — by ordering some communities
deported while sparing others — sowed ultimate disunion among
regional peoples.

“In Kabardino-Balkariya, for example, there is a cleavage between the
Kabards and the Balkars. The Kabards consider themselves privileged
and ‘morally superior’ to the Balkars because they haven’t been
deported. The same goes for the Cherkess and the Karachais. One
can also notice the same phenomenon in Daghestan, where people
often say the Chechens are ‘bad,’ otherwise they wouldn’t have been
deported. Thus I would say the Soviet period turned into enemies
peoples who earlier had been governed by some sort of cultural and
historical unity and ruled by a common code of honor.”

Demands by the Ingush that Ossetians return lands and houses
appropriated during the war paved the way for the 1992 interethnic
conflict.

In the restored Karachayevo-Cherkessiya autonomy, tensions brought
the republic’s two main communities on the verge of civil strife in
the early 1990s.

Stalin’s policy, it could be argued, also had a positive effect since
disunion among people in the Caucasus prevented the Chechen war from
spreading throughout the region.

Ingush and Daghestanis have resisted Chechen attempts to draw them
into the conflict — partly out of fear of a Russian backlash,
partly because they did not have particularly warm feelings toward
their neighbors.

Yet, the conflict created new fault lines in the region.

Soon after the first Chechen war broke out, radical Salafi preachers
arrived in the North Caucasus from the Arab Peninsula and elsewhere
to fight Russian troops. Only a few of these clerics are believed to
remain in the region today.

But they have left an imprint, especially on young people.

“Starting from the early 1990s, there has been a religious revival
which is not a repetition of the traditional religious cleavages of
the years 1800-1850 that lasted up to the Soviet period. This reform
movement is represented by a few extremely radical groups which have
broken away from both the region’s Islamic traditions and the older
generations and who believe that the ethnic divides that exist in the
region have been imposed upon them by outsiders and must be abolished,”
Gordadze says.Stalin — by ordering some communities deported while
sparing others — sowed ultimate disunion among regional peoples.

Both economic hardship and social exclusion have helped radical
Islamic organizations spread throughout Chechnya, Daghestan,
Kabardino-Balkariya, and Karachayevo-Cherkessiya. However, Gordadze
believes these groups remain marginal and do not represent a serious
threat to the region’s traditional clan-based societies.

“Political Islam somehow remains a minority movement,” Gordadze
says. “It is not powerful enough to impose itself upon the North
Caucasus society. Yet this movement exists and, of course, the war
and the behavior of Russian troops in Chechnya can only add fuel to
it. But, as of today, it does not represent a predominant ideology
and most people in the Caucasus do not share the world view of these
groups.”

Yet, political infighting may prove an additional factor of instability
in multiethnic Daghestan. Local leader Magomedali Magomedov has hinted
he may retain power — in violation of the constitution that calls for
a rotation among representatives of various ethnic groups — this amid
a series of political assassinations in Daghestan in recent months.

“We may soon see in Daghestan a combination of ethnic and religious
problems. In addition, we should keep in mind that, traditionally,
Islamic groups there are much more radical than in Chechnya,”
Bennigsen-Broxup says.

Recent wars have already had such devastating effects that restoring
peace in neighboring Chechnya looks to be nearly impossible.

“In 1996 I would have certainly said that [peace was still possible],”
Bennigsen-Broxup says. “But now we have a situation that is similar
to that of Afghanistan. The war has been going on for 10 years almost
without interruption. There is an entire generation of Chechens who
know only war and that will have devastating consequences even if
Russia were to agree to [separatist foreign minister] Ilyas Akhmadov’s
plan to deploy an international peacekeeping force. One cannot create
a generation which knows only war and hope everything can go well.”

Political developments in Abkhazia, where ailing, pro-Russian leader
Vladislav Ardzinba is about to step down, are also a source of concern,
as are Georgia’s possible moves to restore control over both the
Black Sea province and South Ossetia.

Last month fighting broke out between Georgian troops and South
Ossetian armed militias, threatening to degenerate into war.

The Georgian leadership blamed Russia for the unrest, accusing its
peacekeeping forces of siding with the separatist leadership and
demanding that they leave South Ossetia.

But settling Georgia’s separatist conflicts requires more than just
Russian neutrality.

“It is wrong to believe that provided [Tbilisi] manages to
strike a deal with Moscow these conflicts will be automatically
settled. Separatism is a real issue in Abkhazia. It is, of course,
supported by Moscow. But it is also largely founded on the experience
of the 1930s and 1940s. Georgia has often in the past denied the
existence of the Abkhaz as a distinct people and nation and this is
a major concern for the Abkhaz,” Gordadze says.

“Unless the Georgians critically reassess their history and stop being
obsessed with Moscow, they will be unable to find a durable solution
to these conflicts,” he adds.