Eye on Eurasia: No revolution for Russia

Washington Times/United Press International
Jan 11 2005

Eye on Eurasia: No revolution for Russia

By Paul Goble
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

Tartu, Estonia, Jan. 10 (UPI) — Yuri Levada, Russia’s most
distinguished pollster, says that the fragmented, post-imperial
condition of Russian society and the absence of opposition figures
capable of attracting significant support make it highly unlikely
that there will be a Ukrainian-style “Orange” revolution there before
the year 2100.

In a lecture delivered last month in Moscow on “What Sociology Can
and Cannot Do” that was posted online last week
(polit.ru/lectures/2005/01/04/levada.html), Levada, a founding father
of sociology in Soviet times and a pioneer in the use of polling data
more recently in the Russian Federation, outlined the reasons for his
pessimism.

First of all, Levada suggested, Russia has a far more “fragmented”
and “atomized” society than is the case in Ukraine, Georgia or
Poland. Today’s Russians do not feel the kind of collective sense of
identity needed to transform “a mass society into an organized
people.” Instead, each Russian focuses almost exclusively on
protecting his or her personal interests.

Indeed, this process of atomization has proceeded so far in the
Russian Federation that even Moscow and St. Petersburg, the two
places where all Russian revolutions and putsches have taken place in
the past, no longer can play that role. The special qualities of
those two cities that earlier allowed them to play that role, Levada
continues, are no longer present.

Second, according to him, the Russian Federation lacks the kind of
opposition leaders who could help organize society to stand up for
itself. “All the opposition we have now belongs to the past.” And
however remarkable a role its members may have played a decade or
more ago, “we do not see any perspective” either for them or for new
figures to play comparable leadership roles anytime soon.

Third, Levada argues, the Russian Federation continues to suffer from
a strong imperial inheritance, one that he suggests makes national
mobilization based on the self-assertion of the population at large
almost impossible.

Sometimes, he said, national mobilization of this kind can involve
the taking in of an irredenta population as was the case with the
Armenians and Karabakh. It can also involve the assertion of one’s
own national self as is now the case with the Ukrainians. “This
factor is strong,” Levada noted. But “it does not exist in Russia.”

Why? According to the Russian sociologist, the reasons are to be
found in the continuing inability of Russians to overcome “the legacy
of empire.” “An empire,” he said, “is practically incapable” of
acting in this way. It may “long for its past, but nothing useful
will come from this.”

More specifically, he says, all too many Russians seem incapable of
treating Ukraine and the other former Soviet republics as independent
countries separate from themselves. Levada reported on his very
latest polls. They show, he says, that Russians “do not understand
and do not want to understand” what is happening in Ukraine.

That is because, he added, “a majority of our people do not see that
Ukraine is a foreign country.” His poll showed that only 28 percent
of Russians view Ukraine in that way: “The rest think that this is
something like our province” temporarily split off and destined to
return to the fold.

Such attitudes, Levada pointed out, reflect not only the inertia of
earlier views but also views advanced by Russian television “and
other propaganda.” And consequently, many Russians view what is
happening in Ukraine “in the best case” as “a struggle among clans”
rather than something else.

The only good thing his polls show, Levada said, is that “fewer than
20 percent” of Russians view what has taken place in Ukraine as the
result of the work of outside forces hostile to Russia — despite the
statements of some Russian leaders and the way in which the Russian
media have described events there.

Levada concluded his remarks with the observation that this lack of
understanding condemns Russia to yet another repetition of its
eternal “situation” as described by Russia’s great liberal thinker
Alexander Herzen more than a century ago.

Whenever there has been progress in Europe, Herzen wrote, the Russian
powers-that-be would “beat” their subjects lest the latter develop
the strength within themselves to copy those developments and then
challenge the government.

As a result, and again according to Levada, Russian history has been
marked by explosions and their suppression, but not by the growth of
a society capable of mobilizing itself. And even now, he concluded,
Russians do not appear likely to be ready anytime soon to make a
genuine popular revolution like the one that just took place in
Ukraine.

(Paul Goble teaches at the Euro-college of the University of Tartu in
Estonia.)

Minister says ties with Iran “good and expanding” prior to visit

Armenian minister says ties with Iran “good and expanding” prior to visit

IRNA web site, Tehran
8 Jan 05

Moscow, 8 January: Armenian Minister of Education and Science Sergo
Yeritsyan stressed the need for offering facilities to Iranian
students and solving their problems.

Making the remarks while talking to reporters in Yerevan on Friday [7
January] on the threshold of his visit to Iran, he described bilateral
ties as good and expanding.

Referring to the presence of about 1,200 Iranian students in Armenia’s
universities, he stressed the need for solving their problems.

He is to visit Iran from 15-19 January.

A sound start for Deaflympics

heraldsun.news.com

Victoria – Australia

A sound start for Deaflympics

Shannon McRae
06jan05

THE applause may have been inaudible, but it lacked nothing in vigour as
thousands of hands waved to welcome the 20th Deaflympics to Melbourne last
night.
Deaflympics

Fans filled Olympic Park for the opening ceremony, highlighted by a parade
of 3500 athletes and officials from around the world.
Hearing-impaired athletes and spectators clasped balloons to channel musical
vibrations to their receptive hands as performers including Guy Sebastian,
Paulini, Sophie Monk and David Campbell stepped on to the stage.

>From tiny contingents representing Algeria, Kuwait and Armenia to the
Aussies and super teams from Britain and Germany, all corners of the world
were represented.

Sports including basketball, tennis, swimming, athletics and wrestling will
feature in the 10-day program.

Athletes competing in the Deaflympics must have a hearing loss of 55
decibels or more in their better ear.

Australia has been represented at every Deaflympics since 1965, in
Washington. The first Deaflympics were in 1924 in Paris, and this year’s
Games marks the first time Australia has hosted the event.

More than 150 gold medals will be presented during competition, while a
mammoth Melbourne workforce will dish out more than 15,000 meals to
competitors and officials.

Net link:

www.2005deaflympics.com

HH Karekin II message on the Feast of the Holy Nativity & Theophany

PRESS RELEASE
Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, Information Services
Address: Vagharshapat, Republic of Armenia
Contact: Rev. Fr. Ktrij Devejian
Tel: (374 1) 517 163
Fax: (374 1) 517 301
E-Mail: [email protected]
January 5, 2005

THE MESSAGE OF HIS HOLINESS KAREKIN II
SUPREME PATRIARCH AND CATHOLICOS OF ALL ARMENIANS
ON THE OCCASION OF THE FEAST OF
THE HOLY NATIVITY AND THEOPHANY OF OUR LORD JESUS CHRIST
Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, January 6, 2005

“And you will know the truth,
and the truth will make you free.”
(John 8:32)

Dearly beloved faithful,

With the tidings of the Holy Nativity, from the Mother See of Holy
Etchmiadzin, we greet you in Armenia and in the Dispersion, and glorifying
together the name of our Lord the Savior, before the Holy Altar of Descent,
we proclaim the Dominical message, “And you will know the truth, and the
truth will make you free.”

To know the truth. Man has strived to find it for so long – from the time
of the old world until the present, expressing his search in philosophical
thoughts, through the embodiment of art and literature, through programs for
rearrangements and reformations of society. The best thoughts, kind
aspirations and efforts of humanity have been directed to the quest of ‘what
is the truth?’ Man has searched and is searching for the truth within his
own world, but the truth has been revealed to mankind from the heavenly
heights, through the starlight of Bethlehem, leading to the Savior Child
born in the manger. The Incarnate Son of God is the Truth, who testified to
the boundless love of God for us, His creation. Man, alienated from God,
had no hope to see or know the truth, but through Jesus, the Truth Himself
is within us, uniting the divine to our human life. Through His Revelation,
Jesus expanded the boundaries of truth beyond the limitations of human
experiences and mortal standards, and extended them towards the eternal: “I
am the way and the truth and the life.” (John 14:6)

Today the prophets who became the messengers of God’s promise of salvation,
and who expected and hoped for the Savior, are speaking. Today, the wise
men who saw the shining bright star in the sky and proceeded towards the
salvation of the world, are offering their gifts to the Infant Savior.
Today, before the open gates of heaven’s mercy, the shepherds who sang
together with the angels, are praising the Savior Child resting in the
manger wrapped in swaddling clothes. They recognized the Grace of God Who
had entered into the world, Who frees men from sins caused by evil, Who
keeps us from going astray and Who protects us from destructive paths.
Nothing – no human creation or plan – is capable of renewing and
transfiguring the soul of man, other than the faith of God’s presence in the
life of mankind, through which the spiritual rebirth and moral progress of
humanity are accomplished.

“And you will know the truth, and the truth will make you free”, has
resonated for 2,000 years, so that the gaze of man is directed upwards to
see the light of salvation and to believe that he is free through Christ,
and to believe that through Christ the path towards a world of truth,
justice and love is open. Faith has no yearning for proof, but the proof of
faith is the renewing spirit – the soul free through truth which seeks to
transform the world, leading it to goodness and leading it to truth.

Anxieties prevail in various places throughout the world; mankind is faced
with issues of relations between states and peoples; demands for revisions
in societal life; natural disasters and calamities born from the actions of
men; social, moral and many other problems, all of these are in need of
solutions, for which men are seeking to find the right answers and the
correct paths. Every decision of man, every activity, is dependent on the
presence of God which is measured in its value: Is it good or evil? It is
acceptable or unacceptable? Is it temporary and fleeting or everlasting and
timeless, leading life to prosperity and happiness. It is with the Savior
that we are truly free and through our decisions and the steps that we take,
we can establish justice in the world in spite of inequity, love in spite of
hate and enmity, and peace in spite of violence and war.

Dearly beloved,

The liberating and saving Truth revealed to mankind through Christ has
illuminated the historic course of our people and will enlighten our present
and our future. We came to know the Truth, which formed the creative and
ingenious spirit of our culture and infused the spirit of renaissance which
directs our history. We created with the love of life, with the conviction
to live; we lived and were martyred with the aspiration of being the free
people and nation of Christ. Tempest-torn, regardless of where we were
scattered, the lantern of the Illuminator, kindled by the starlight of
Bethlehem, shone high and inextinguishable in the skies of our spiritual
life. The lantern kept us united and whole with its undimmed light, guarded
the hopes of our people for a peaceful and reconciled world, and for our
unified life and bright future.

Our miraculous alphabet of Mashtots was born through the graces of a Divine
and free spirit, whose 1,600th anniversary we celebrate this year, invoking
the sacred memories of the Armenian translation of the Holy Bible, and the
era of Sahak-Mesropian education and enlightenment. We will also solemnly
commemorate the 90th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, reconfirming our
fidelity to the faith of our innumerable martyrs and to their vision of a
new life for the Armenians. By invoking the memories of our innocent
victims we will once again extend the invitation for the recognition of the
Genocide, for the sake of a world that is just and free of violence. Glory
to the Lord, because the independence of Armenia and the liberation of
Artsakh have opened doors of hope for the victory of justice; and for the
secure life and actions of our people in the homeland, which shall serve to
be the new testimonies of our faith in Christ. In Armenia, in Artsakh and
in all corners of the world, our people today are manifesting their
centuries-old dreams of a creative life with an awakening faith, and will
continue to bring their benefit to peace-loving efforts of states and
peoples.

Dearly beloved Armenians, today the star of Bethlehem is guiding us to the
Savior’s manger, where the eternal was born, the infinite was confined, and
that which cannot be comprehended was recognized as liberator. Let us not
hesitate to know the Truth, to do the good, to serve one another and to
serve Christ. Let us put aside all which will disrupt us from following
His luminous and liberating path. Freedom is the greatest grace in which
our hopes and aspirations will bear fruit, to construct a peaceful and
prosperous life and a free society. We will not only defend the freedom of
our Homeland, but also make it become freedom for each one of us. Freedom
is our choice of the good, which in itself is also a struggle against evil.
Poverty and the evil of lawlessness will be erased from our soil with our
Christ-loving and truth-loving endeavors; indifference and intolerance will
be forced out of our society and the benefits of true philanthropy will be
established. It is through our brotherhood, in our justice and in our love
that our plans and labors will succeed; aimed at the building and
strengthening of our Homeland, in the transformation of our society, in the
preservation and renaissance of national life in the Diaspora, in the
education of our children, in the development of our culture, and in the
realization of all objectives of our people.

The blessing of the Savior descends upon the earth. From God-built Holy
Etchmiadzin, from the Altar of the Descent of our Savior and our Lord, we
extend glad tidings of the Holy Nativity and our Pontifical love and
blessings to all our faithful people dispersed throughout the world. We
send our greetings to the incumbents of the hierarchal sees of our Apostolic
Holy Church: His Holiness Aram I, Catholicos of the Great House of Cilicia;
His Beatitude Archbishop Torkom Manoogian, Armenian Patriarch of Jerusalem;
His Beatitude Archbishop Mesrob Moutafian, Armenian Patriarch of
Constantinople; and to the entire oath-abiding dedicated ranks of clergy of
the Armenian Church.

Offering songs of praise for the Revelation, with love in Christ, we greet
the heads of our sister Churches and their pious flock.

With Pontifical blessings we convey our best wishes of the Holy Nativity to
the President of the Republic of Armenia, Mr. Robert Kocharian; to the
President of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabagh, Mr. Arkady Ghukasian; to all
state officials of the Armenians; to the leaders of the diplomatic missions
registered in Armenia; and to all representatives of international
organizations.

Let us kneel down beside the cradle of the Infant Jesus and ask that through
the presence of God, the renewing spirit be ours as well, and the life being
led towards goodness and truth be our life as well, in our Homeland and in
the Diaspora. Let us all pray in unison that our compassionate Lord,
through the consolation of the Holy Spirit, grant comfort to the hearts of
thousands affected by the recent natural disaster in the countries of the
Far East, and with His unending mercy, grant rest to the souls of the
victims. May the peace sent from heaven be established throughout the
world, and especially today for all peoples living in the dangers of war,
and may divine paths lead the course of mankind towards the shores of
reconciliation, justice and brotherhood; towards an improving prosperous,
progressive and happy life; and towards salvation and eternity.

“Christ is Born and Revealed!
Great Tidings to You and to Us.” Amen.

With Blessings,

KAREKIN II
SUPREME PATRIARCH
CATHOLICOS OF ALL ARMENIANS

TOL: A Limbo with No End

Transitions on Line, Czech Republic
Jan 3 2005

A Limbo with No End

by Ruzan Hakobyan
3 January 2005

Sixteen years after they began arriving, there are still 240,000
registered refugees in Armenia. Why are they not accepting Armenian
passports?

YEREVAN, Armenia–It could be viewed as a success. According to the
UN’s refugee agency, the UNHCR, 21 percent of refugees in Armenia
have gained Armenian citizenship since 1995. That, says the UNHCR, is
one of the highest rates of voluntary naturalization anywhere in the
world in recent decades.

The total number of naturalizations-65,000-also indicates how huge a
refugee problem Armenia faced just as the Soviet Union was collapsing
and, with it, the Armenian economy. From 1988 to 1994, 360,000 ethnic
Armenians flooded into Armenia first to avoid pogroms in Baku,
Azerbaijan, and then, in a process mirrored in Azerbaijan, to flee
fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region assigned to Azerbaijan by the
Soviet authorities. Another 60,000 moved from regions bordering
Azerbaijan that were heavily shelled during the war.

The strain on a country of 3 million people was huge. The country was
still trying to come to terms with an earthquake in 1988 that killed
25,000 people and displaced 60,000. That time became known as the
`dark years’: the earthquake devastated the country’s energy system
and that, plus the strain of the Soviet Union’s collapse and a
blockade in Azerbaijan, left the country chronically short of
electricity and other basics.

But how much of a success is it that 240,000 refugees remain and have
not been naturalized? The Armenian authorities have little reason not
to give the refugees passports. The refugees were ethnic kin, those
from Nagorno-Karabakh came as the result of a war that partly
reflected a desire for closer ties with Armenia, and most of the
refugees, who came predominantly from cities in Karabakh and
Azerbaijan, had skills to offer. And, while absorbing such a huge
number might be a massive challenge, the pressure has been eased by
the emigration of hundreds of thousands of Armenians over the past
decade.

Refugee in Silikyan, Yerevan.

Courtesy of Onnik Krikorian.

The refugees themselves have compelling reasons to get Armenian
passports. Since 2000, they have not been able to use their old
Soviet passports to travel outside Armenia. Moreover, citizenship
could open the way to better housing.

Over the past 16 years, the hostels and community centers in which
most refugees were placed have fallen into serious, sometimes
disastrous disrepair. Almost a third of the refugees still remain in
community centers and other refugee accommodations. The Armenian
government and international organizations have been building new
housing. The UNHCR, for example, has built 3,200 homes for refugees
throughout Armenia, while the Norwegian Refugee Council is building
100 to 250 houses a year.

But they would have more freedom if they were to become naturalized
Armenians. They could then take over ownership of their temporary
accommodation from the state for free (provided they have lived there
for three or more years).

Silva Ohanyan and her family are among those who have acquired
citizenship. Ever since a pogrom of Armenians in the Azeri city of
Sumgait in 1988, the family has relied heavily on humanitarian aid
and subsidies, but they have managed to buy a small two-room
apartment. For them, Armenia is now home.

A fast-growing number of refugees feel the same. Since the law
allowing refugees to buy their homes was passed in 2000, the number
of naturalizations has soared. In 1999, fewer than 8,000 refugees had
Armenian passports. In 2000, that figure doubled. It is now eight
times higher than it was in 1999.

Why, then, have other refugees refused to apply for citizenship? Does
the 21 percent naturalization rate mean that 79 percent do not see
their future in Armenia?

STRANDED IN LIMBO

For some, particularly the old, it makes no difference whether they
have an Armenian passport or not. They lack the money either to
travel or to buy their own flats.

In a refugee hostel in Yerevan dormitories, Asya and Robert
Mkhitarov, from Baku, live off a combined monthly pension of about
$30. After paying electricity, water, and telephone bills, they are
left with only $15 to last the month. They, too, rely on handouts. `I
was brought up to be proud of my Armenian heritage,’ Asya says. `And
even if I had only a roof over my head, I would never think of
leaving Armenia. This is my country.’ She now has a passport to prove
it.

Anna Grigorova, 70, also has a passport. She arrived in Armenia after
pogroms in Baku. Today, together with 25 other families, she lives in
a former boardinghouse. A retired economist and widow, she receives
an $8 monthly pension from the Armenian government, forcing her to
rely on handouts from the state and small sums that her niece sends
from Russia. There is no water in the hostel. She has to fetch it
from neighboring buildings. Her room is dark and filthy, with bare
walls and just a few household items. `I had such a beautiful house,
quality furniture. Now look at me. Everything is gone,’ she said with
a sad smile.

For other elderly refugees from Azerbaijan living, like Grigorova, on
or below the breadline, the extremely remote hope of compensation
from Azerbaijan is more important than an Armenian passport and
taking over ownership (and maintenance and problems) of run-down
rooms in boarding lodges. If they became Armenian citizens, they
would have to give up all claims to compensation.

For young men, as well, an Armenian passport would bring with it the
prospect of conscription. Others fear losing the humanitarian
assistance that refugees are entitled to, which is significantly more
generous than the welfare benefits that naturalized Armenians can
claim.

Naturalization makes most sense for those of working age. But while
some refugees have settled very well in Armenia, many others still
find it difficult to feel at home in Armenia and to build a new life.

When refugees began to enter Armenia, the local population was
sympathetic and did its best to ease their situation. As their own
economic plight worsened and the locals found themselves in the same
conditions as refugees, their ability to help considerably decreased.
Nonetheless, there remains a strong sense of solidarity with the
refugees. About 100 groups work to help the refugees to settle, find
work, create a cultural life, and deal with welfare issues.

Even so, the refugees remain outsiders, in part because of language.
In Karabakh, Armenians used a distinct dialect of Armenian. In
Azerbaijan, Armenians mainly used Russian, even at home.

Asya Mkhitarova, a Russian teacher, has taught herself excellent
Armenian. But for others, language or dialect remains a major
barrier. `When some locals realize that I am not a local Armenian,
their attitude toward me immediately changes, I can feel that,’ says
Aram Asaturov with a hint of bitterness. `I am an Armenian of
Karabakhi origin,’ the 65-year-old continues. `I am an Armenian even
if I was born in Azerbaijan and do not speak very good Armenian.’

The Armenian government has never produced a clear and coordinated
policy to deal with the language problems of refugees. So language
courses for refugees `never became commonly available and were not
applied consistently,’ says political scientist Alina Topchyan. Where
local government has tried to arrange courses, the drop-out rate has
been high: frequently, there are too few teachers, the range of
knowledge in one classroom is too wide, and the lessons themselves
too unrelated to daily difficulties.

`When I pronounce Armenian words with an accent I feel embarrassed.
So very often, I prefer to speak Russian rather than Armenian,’ said
Yulia Khachatryan, who now lives in Echmiatsin. Partly for that
reason, most refugees live in separate communities isolated from the
wider population.

Nostalgia for the better life they had back in Baku and other cities
is a factor for many, leaving them reluctant to adapt to Armenian
culture, speak Armenian, and, most importantly, admit that Armenia is
now their home.

But without the language, they have found it tough to find work. Some
organizations, like Mission Armenia–which has provided about 10,000
refugees with health assistance, social services, legal counseling,
and psychological support–has arranged business, computer,
marketing, and language courses to make refugees competitive on the
labor market. But in a country where the official unemployment rate
is 20 percent and the unofficial rate, according to the UN
Development Program, could be three times as high, they must be very
competitive.

The refugees’ problems of adaptation are not just because they have
been transplanted to another country and a different language
environment. Most refugees from Azerbaijan came from urban areas. In
Armenia, most of them were forced to settle in rural areas and take
up farming, a task for which they lack the skills and knowledge.

THE ROAD TO STEPANAKERT

For all refugees, wherever they came from, there is a way out of such
limbo – and it leads to Nagorno-Karabakh. The government of
Nagorno-Karabakh has offered them large sums of money to return or
settle: $300 per person and $600 to buy cattle and get ready for the
farming season, as well as 3,500 square meters of land, electricity
subsidies, free water, and exemption from military service for two
years.

Courtyard in Silikyan, Yerevan. Courtesy of Onnik Krikorian.
But relatively few have taken the offer. According to the Karabakh
Department for Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, about
25,000 refugees have settled in Karabakh. The Armenian government’s
Department for Migration and Refugees (DMR), which is working closely
with the self-declared independent Karabakh republic, says $350
million more in subsidies could enable it to resettle another 50,000
families in as little as three years. The Karabakh government sets
aside some $600,000 a year to build houses for settlers in Karabakh.

But cash and incentives may not be enough. Though the Karabakhi
economy is reviving, it remains weaker than Armenia’s. Making a
decent living is tough in Armenia and tougher still in Karabakh. Some
villages have no water or electricity, and the schools are some
distance away. And though the soil is arable and rich, many farmers
cannot afford the equipment to cultivate it.

And for those who are not farmers, there is relatively little work.

That makes a move to Karabakh unappealing, particularly to the
urbanite Armenians from Azerbaijan, a larger group than the number of
Karabakh refugees. Tim Straight of the Norwegian Refugee Council
reports some refugees are unhappy with the houses built for them in
Armenia. `That happens mostly with Bakuians. They are nostalgic about
the conditions they lived in, and naturally a cottage in the Armenian
countryside loses in comparison with an apartment in a capital city.’
A cottage in the countryside of Nagorno-Karabakh has even less
appeal.

Moreover, as DMR refugee department director Ara Haroutunyan points
out, they are already having a hard time adapting to Armenia. A
second resettlement could further aggravate their psychological
dislocation.

And there is another major psychological obstacle: the lack of a
peace settlement creates an uncertainty that may be too great for
refugees to accept.

THE ROAD TO MOSCOW

In any case, there is another road that the refugees can take. Like
many native Armenians, they prefer to take roads that lead abroad,
mainly to Russia, a country where they speak the language and, in
many cases, have relatives. According to DMR data, many of the
240,000 refugees registered in Armenia may not actually be living in
Armenia. Most will have moved to Russia before 2000, when Soviet-era
passports became invalid.

That should be no surprise. The Armenians have always had a sizable
diaspora. An estimated 60 percent of the total 8 million Armenians
worldwide live outside the country, with 1 million each in the United
States and Russia. The exodus from Armenia has been particularly
heavy since the country gained its independence in 1991.

So the naturalization rate–low in absolute terms, albeit high in
relative terms–is distorted by a huge movement of refugees to
Russia.

Larisa Alaverdyan, the state ombudsman for refugee affairs, put it
simply: `Unless favorable conditions are set for working, the
compensation issues are resolved, [and] reconstruction and
development projects are funded, one can say with certainty that
passports will be acquired only by those who are going to leave the
country for making their living elsewhere.’

But that is not entirely the case. Aram Asaturov, the 65-year-old
Karabakhi, says he has decided to apply for citizenship and would
have done so earlier if it weren’t so difficult to live in Armenia.
Now that he owns a room in a dormitory and is certain of a roof over
his head, he feels more confident.

The others, too reluctant or too lacking in confidence to become
citizens, will remain stuck in Armenia, waiting to see what happens
next and hoping for the best. The question, `Where do your see
yourself in 10 years?’ generates a telling response from most
refugees–vague answers or simply deeply puzzled looks.

Ruzan Hakobyan is a political scientist and freelance journalist
based in Yerevan who specializes in political and cultural issues.

Christian hypocrisy, atheist insanity

Town Hall, DC
Dec 31 2004

Christian hypocrisy, atheist insanity
Marvin Olasky (archive)

Since both my wife and I formally became Christians (through baptism)
in the same year we were married, 1976, our love for each other in
some loopy way is tied up with our love for Christianity.
Wonderfully, we’ve never had any significant frustrations in our
marriage, but we’ve seen things go wrong in some churches.

My favorite 20th century writer of fiction, Walker Percy, poured on
the criticism in his next-to-last novel, “The Second Coming” (1980).
He complained that the contemporary Christian is “nominal, lukewarm,
hypocritical, sinful or, if fervent, generally offensive and
fanatical. But he is not crazy.” The unbeliever is, because of the
“fatuity, blandness, incoherence, fakery and fatheadedness of his
unbelief. He is in fact an insane person.”

Percy continued, “The present-day unbeliever is crazy because he
finds himself born into a world of endless wonders, having no notion
how he got here, a world in which he eats, sleeps … works, grows
old, gets sick, and dies … takes his comfort and ease, plays along
with the game, watches TV, drinks his drink, laughs … for all the
world as if his prostate were not growing cancerous, his arteries
turning to chalk, his brain cells dying off by the millions, as if
the worms were not going to have him in no time at all.”

Percy’s describes the typical academic: “The more intelligent he is,
the crazier he is. … He reads Dante for its mythic structure. He
joins the ACLU and concerns himself with the freedom of the
individual and does not once exercise his own freedom to inquire into
how in God’s name he should find himself in such a ludicrous
situation.”

The international news of 2004 once again showed how far from sanity
this world resides. Iraq. Sudan. Israel. Afghanistan. Holland. China.
Chechnya. Cuba. Nagorno Karabakh. On the surface, our domestic news
is better. No terrorist attacks. No mass murders in schools or
churches. But Percy’s quiet terror continues: arteries to chalk,
brain cells to mush, dust to dust.

This was a year in which many people sought the love of another. I
feel extraordinarily blessed in my marriage, but hit television shows
like “Sex and the City” and “Desperate Housewives,” as well as Tom
Wolfe’s fine novel “I Am Charlotte Simmons,” display the desperate
desire for love that some sadly reduce to a desperate search for sex
— as if momentary excitement can substitute for years of
contentment.

Some of the gays and lesbians who lined up for “marriage licenses”
in San Francisco early this year merely wanted to poke their fingers
in the eyes of straights, but others were there because they thought
they suddenly had an antidote to loneliness. They deserve not hatred,
but pity.

What’s more striking is how the desperate search for horizontal
love, person-to-person, is not matched by what should be an even more
desperate search for vertical love, person-and-God. Here’s Walker
Percy again: “I am surrounded by two classes of maniacs. The first
are the believers, who think they know the reason why we find
ourselves in this ludicrous predicament yet act for all the world as
if they don’t. The second are the unbelievers, who don’t know the
reason and don’t care if they don’t.”

Confession: I often act for all the world as if I’m clueless. So do
most Christians I know — and those who don’t act clueless often act
as if they know everything, which is even more obnoxious. But here’s
my continuing New Year’s resolution, now 24 years old, taken from the
end of the “The Second Coming,” after protagonist Will Barrett has
fallen in love and also come to understand a little about God: “Am I
crazy to want both, her and Him? No, not want, must have. And will
have.”

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/marvinolasky/mo20041231.shtml

Ukrainians in Armenia vote for Yanukovich

ArmenPress
Dec 27 2004

UKRAINIANS IN ARMENIA VOTE FOR YANUKOVICH

YEREVAN, DECEMBER 27, ARMENPRESS: The Ukrainian embassy in Yerevan
told Armenpress that out of 213 Ukrainian citizens, living in Armenia
who were eligible to vote in Sunday’s repeat presidential election
only 101 came to the embassy on Sunday to take part in the third
round pf presidential election.
The embassy said around 71 percent of them voted for the acting
prime minister Victor Yanukovich and 23 percent for opposition leader
Viktor Yuschenko.
According to the latest figures from Ukraine, the opposition
leader Viktor Yushchenko has an unassailable lead in a re-run of
Ukraine’s rigged presidential election with more than 90 percent of
the vote counted. Election officials in Kiev said with 96.52 percent
of the ballot counted, Yushchenko had won 53.97 percent compared with
42.25 percent for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich.
By the way, it appeared that the opposition presidential candidate
Viktor Yuschenko, lived for some time in Nagorno Karabagh, when a
child, where his father, a Soviet Army officer, served.

BAKU: Radical group advocates for “Garabagh guerillas”

Radical group advocates for “Garabagh guerillas”

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Dec 24 2004

The Garabagh Liberation Organization (GLO) protested the court sentence
on the “Garabagh guerillas” in a news conference on Thursday.

On Wednesday, the Grave Crimes Court sentenced 5 of 21 young people,
charged with setting up an illegal armed group, to conditional
imprisonment, while the rest received from 3 to 10 years in prison.
Chairman of the organization Akif Naghi called the court verdict,
pronounced by judge Azer Orujov, ‘an order by the authorities’, saying
he is surprised that the court has issued different punishments on
those who committed the same offence.

The GLO chairman said that the committee for the rights of the
“guerillas” will take the case to the Court of Appeals and make every
effort to get them released.

The radical group also plans to involve different layers of the
society in this matter.

Relatives of the defendants termed the court ruling as ‘punishment
pursued by Armenia’s prosecutor’s office’ and said they will appeal
to the Azerbaijani President, calling on him to protect the rights
of his country’s citizens.

New Players enter Karabakh peace process

Institute for War and Peace Reporting
Dec 22 2004

NEW PLAYERS ENTER KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS

Will the involvement of the United Nations and the Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe help or hinder the cause of peace
in Nagorny Karabakh?

By Thomas de Waal in London

A number of initiatives on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict are either
adding life to a moribund peace process, or bringing in outside
agencies with no expertise on the issue and making resolution more
difficult – depending on whom you talk to.

In the last six months, the main mediators have become more active
again. The diplomats of the three countries, which are the co-chairs of
the “Minsk Group” of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in

Europe (France, Russia and the United States), have revived regular
meetings with the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers. A series
of meetings that began in Prague were not formal negotiations as such
but the Minsk Group mediators hope they will lead to more serious
talks next year.

At the same time, other international players have entered the field.
Last month, Azerbaijan managed to raise the issue of Karabakh at the
United Nations General Assembly for the first time in many years.
Next month, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in
Strasbourg will debate a draft resolution on the conflict. Earlier
this year, the Pentagon even took a brief interest in Karabakh.

All this is perhaps not surprising, given that ten years after a
ceasefire was signed between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces, no
final peace deal has been struck. In Azerbaijan, which continues to
bear greater pain of the non-resolution of the conflict in terms of
land occupied and people displaced, the sense of urgency is greater.

But the two parties offer very different views about what the
involvement of other international organisations means.

Speaking at the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London
on December 13, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliev said that Baku was
trying to ensure that the world did not forget about the Karabakh
conflict.

“International organisations – and not only the one which directly
deals with this issue, the Minsk Group – such as the European Union,

the Council of Europe and the United Nations, can and should play a
more active role,” the president said.

Aliev said that he was committed to a peaceful resolution of the
dispute but issued what sounded like a veiled threat, saying,
“We are committed to the peace process but our patience has limits.”

The new rush of activity has a lot to do with the appointment in
Azerbaijan of a much more dynamic foreign minister, Elmar Mamedyarov,
in April of this year. A fluent English-speaker like his Armenian
counterpart Vartan Oskanian, Mamedyarov has shown much more initiative
than his predecessors.

Speaking to IWPR by telephone from Baku, Mamedyarov said that he had
written letters to the UN, the Council of Europe and to EU foreign
policy chief Javier Solana amongst others.

“Azerbaijan has made it clear numerous times that we are committed
to a peace process run by the Minsk Group and by the co-chairs,”
the minister said. “But in the last negotiations we have been stuck
in an exchange of views within the Minsk Group.”

“We want to keep this conflict within the eyes of the international
community.”

Central to Azerbaijani strategy has been an attempt to get a new
UN resolution on Karabakh, picking up on four resolutions that were
passed when the conflict was active in 1993-94. The resolutions all
call for Armenian forces to leave Azerbaijani territory – although
they also contain calls on both sides to cease fire, which were not
heeded at the time.

The Armenians have called the resort to the UN a “mistake”. Armenian
foreign minister Oskanian told IWPR in written answers to questions
that “Azerbaijan cannot try to negotiate on the one hand, and
then on the other hand, try to isolate this or that aspect of the
entire package of issues and push them individually in this or that
international forum”.

While saying he did not wish to exclude any serious interest in the
dispute, Oskanian sounded a warning note, saying, “We think we need
to stay within the tried forums, where information and experience has
accumulated, and focus on the real issue instead of trying to divert
attention to side issues.”

The UN debate was postponed indefinitely on November 23 after an
intervention by US ambassador Susan Moore on behalf of the three
OSCE co-chairs.

In a November 22 interview with Radio Liberty, the US co-chairman
Steve Mann did not explicitly criticise the UN initiative but implied
he doubted it would help the peace process. “The important thing… is
that this depends in the first instance on the parties to the conflict
themselves. There must be political will in Armenia and Azerbaijan
to settle this,” he said.

One spin-off from the UN initiative, however, is likely to be
a fact-finding mission under the aegis of the OSCE to the seven
“occupied territories” of Azerbaijan that are fully or partially under
Armenian control and are located outside the disputed territory of
Nagorny Karabakh.

The Azerbaijanis say they want to have reports that Armenian settlers
are being settled in these territories checked. Oskanian said that he
had no problem with this, saying, “We welcome this OSCE Minsk Group
fact-finding mission and will facilitate their work.”

Armenians have also reacted sharply to a draft resolution due to be
put before the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe at
the end of next month.

The resolution was drafted by its original rapporteur British member
of parliament Terry Davis and finished by his colleague David Atkinson
after Davis became secretary general of the parliamentary assembly
in August. To the anger of the Armenians, the document currently
views the dispute as it is seen in Baku – as an inter-state conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan – rather than the way Yerevan regards
it: as a fight for self-determination by the Armenians of Karabakh.

The resolution states, for example, that “separatist forces are still
in control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region” and warns the Armenians that
“the occupation of foreign territory by a member state constitutes
a grave violation of that state’s obligations as a member of the
Council of Europe”.

In an interview in London last week, Atkinson told IWPR that he saw
the PACE initiative as “introducing a parliamentary dimension” into
the peace process, “on the grounds that if you involve the elected
representatives of the parties concerned, practical politicians
elected on the basis that we represent our constituencies, they can
come forward and help in a process that has eluded resolution”.

Atkinson said the PACE initiative had not been coordinated with
the Minsk Group, but that he did not want to undermine the OSCE
negotiations. He added, however, that “I’m hoping that all sides meet
and see a way forward where the Minsk process has failed”.

Atkinson, who took over as rapporteur in September, said he had
made only one substantial change to the draft resolution, by adding
Article 9 which “calls on the government of Azerbaijan to establish
contacts with the political representatives of both communities from
the Nagorno-Karabakh region regarding the future status of the region”.

Hitherto, the government in Baku has consistently refused to hold
talks with the Karabakh Armenians and only negotiates directly with
the government in Yerevan.

The rapporteur himself remains a lifetime vice-president of the
organisation Christian Solidarity Worldwide, headed by British peer
Baroness Cox, which has a long record of support for the Karabakh
Armenians. He himself visited Karabakh on the Armenian side in 1992.
He said the Azerbaijanis knew about this and had not objected.

The draft resolution was strongly criticised in a letter to Atkinson
by Vladimir Kazimirov, the veteran Russian mediator who negotiated
the 1994 ceasefire. It was dated December 3 and published by the
Russian Regnum news agency on December 17.

Kazimirov said the draft gave a very selective history of the conflict
and said it was clearly biased in favour of Azerbaijan and therefore
harmful to the prospects of peaceful resolution.

“The Hippocratic oath, ‘do no harm’ to the negotiation process, is
absolutely appropriate here, as each side will for sure use any bias
in its own interests,” Kazimirov wrote.

An upsurge of international interest shows that the unsolved Karabakh
conflict is at least not forgotten. The very polarised attitudes to
the new initiatives suggest that progress in actually achieving a
resolution remains as far off as ever.

Thomas de Waal is IWPR’s Caucasus Editor.

Tbilisi: National Airlines partners for flights to Moscow

National Airlines partners for flights to Moscow

The Messenger, Georgia
Dec 21 2004

Airline leases new Airbus and plans expansion routes to Russia and
Middle East

By Christina Tashkevich

Last week Georgian National Airlines and the Russian Sibir Airlines
signed a one-year agreement to run Tbilisi-Moscow flights together
on the parity basis.

According to National Airlines, such an agreement is the first one in
“the history of the Georgian and Russian airlines.” As a result of
the agreement, National Airlines will run a flight from Tbilisi to
Moscow’s Vnukovo airport every day at 10:10 a.m. as of December 22.

According to the President of the Georgian National Airlines, Giorgi
Kodua, “we start working not as competitors, but as partners.” He adds
that this fact will have a positive effect in a quality of services.

Georgian National Airlines plans to service Sibir customers on a
Tbilisi-Moscow route with its new airplane, Airbus-A320.

The company leased an Airbus-A320 from the International Lease Finance
Corporation at the beginning of December for USD 500,000 per month. The
first airplane is set to arrive in Tbilisi on Tuesday.

According to the airline company, at the initial stage, a
Russian-Armenian flight staff will man the jet while Georgian pilots
receive training on the new airplane, a fact that has upset a local
pilot’s organization.

National Airlines announced last week that it looks for “experienced
and professional pilots” which would be trained abroad. The company
estimates that in three months a Georgian flight staff will be able
to fly the new aircraft.

In response to recent criticism in the media regarding the fact
that the jet is manned by a non-Georgian crew, Kodua said, “all
interested Georgian pilots are welcome.” Akhali Taoba reported that
Tamaz Gaiashvili, the president of Georgia’s other major airline,
Airzena Georgian Airlines, has long been demanding the establishment
of parity flights, but he thinks that the civil aviation administration
gives foreign airlines certain privileges.

New chair of the Civil Aviation Administration Giorgi Mzhavanadze
denies claims that the government invited foreign pilots to Georgia,
leaving Georgian pilots unemployed as a result.

“National Airlines will employ foreign pilots in Georgia as of the New
Year. The administration will control this process very attentively
and strictly, in order not to violate the time limits envisaged by
the agreement,” Mzhavanadze said at the recent briefing.

He also added that the agreement’s three-month period in which Georgian
pilots will be trained may be extended another two months if necessary.

After the technical base for use of the Airbus-A320 jet is created,
National Airlines plans to lease a second jet that will start flights
next spring. Until then the first Airbus-A320 will fly to Moscow,
Dubai, Delhi, Karachi, and St. Petersburg.

The lease of the Airbus is the second major lease this month. Last
week, Georgian Airlines (formerly known as Airzena) leased
two Boeing-737-500 passenger planes, also from the U.S. company
International Lease Finance Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary
of American International Group (AIG). According to the airline,
the leases are for five years.