Author: Nargizian David

EBRD LOWERS ITS 2009 ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECAST FOR ARMENIA

ARKA
Jan 29, 2009

YEREVAN, January 29. /ARKA/. European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development lowered its economic growth forecast for Armenia in 2009
by 2.8% to 5.5%. In November, the EBRD expected 8.3%.

The bank said in its report that economic growth was recorded at 6.8%
in 2008, 13.8% in 2007 and 13.2% in 2006.

The European Bank lowered its expectations also for neighboring
countries.

The 2009 economic growth forecast for Azerbaijan was lowered from 15%
to 8% and for Georgia from 4% to 3%.

GDP growth forecast for Russia fell from 3% to 1%. The EBRD expects
decline also in 30 European and Central-Asian countries, in which
the bank invests money.

As a whole, European Bank expects 0.1% GDP growth in these countries
in 2009 instead of 2.5% predicted earlier.

Erik Berglöf, the top specialist at the bank, said slowdown in global
economic processes is visible in the EBRD region mainly because of
increased integration in the world economy.

He thinks that the countries ability to stand outside pressures
will heavily depend on the pace of global economy recovery, national
governments and international financial institutions’ joint efforts.

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is the largest
investor, who besides investing own money also attracts direct
foreign investments.

The bank belongs to 60 countries and two international organizations.

The bank invests money manly in private companies, as a rule, jointly
with its commercial partners.

–Boundary_(ID_2dbtjy1qiemudkzOVdSiyA)- –

THE ARMENIAN CURRENCY WILL NOT DEPRECIATE AS MUCH AS TO CREATE PANIC
Anna Nazaryan

"Radiolur"
29.01.2009 18:03

It’s impossible not to be influenced by the economic crisis, as it
is impossible not to feel cold in winter.

Chairman of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on
Financial-Credit and Budgeting Issues Gagik Minasyan and economist
Tatul Manaseryan agree that devaluation of the Armenian dram is
impossible in the second economic phase of the global crisis, although
Armenia managed to successfully overcome the first financial stage
of the crisis. They assure, however, that the Armenian currency will
not depreciate as much as to create panic.

Money becomes the scarcest good during the second phase of the crisis,
Gagik Minasyan clarifies. Therefore, the main way to overcome the
second phase is to ensure financial flows into economy. For this
very reason Armenia applies to international financial structures
and countries. The World Bank has already provided a $525 million
loan to Armenia.

The crisis will deepen in Armenia within the coming months, the
Deputy said.

However, our country can benefit from the global economic
crisis. Economist Tatul Manaseryan advises to acquire necessary
equipment from competitor countries and come out winner when the
crisis is over.

Gagik Minasyan added that we can draw benefits from prices of
natural gas.

ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN PRESIDENTS TO MEET IN SWITZERLAND

armradio.am
28.01.2009 13:45

The President of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, left for Davos, Switzerland,
today to participate in the World Economic Summit.

Within the framework of the visit the Presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan are expected to hold talks on the settlement of the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict in Zurich. "Radiolur" correspondent Shakeh Avoyan
reports from Switzerland that the meeting of Presidents will be
preceded by a meeting with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs.

On the sidelines of the summit, President Sargsyan is expected to
have a number of bilateral meetings with leaders of other states and
representatives of international structures.

The President will meet representatives of the Swiss Armenian
community, as well.

ST. LOUIS COULD BENEFIT IF CHICAGO GETS 2016 OLYMPICS
By Vahe Gregorian

St. Louis Post-Dispatch
rts/stories.nsf/olympics/story/B260AFEB168727BC862 5754B000D9FBE?OpenDocument
Jan 27 2009
MO

St. Louis may never be the principal host for the Olympics again. But
if Chicago secures the 2016 Summer Games, St. Louis has a chance
to enhance its Olympic legacy by hosting preliminary soccer games
and serving as a satellite host for pre-Games training for visiting
nations.

Seeking to stoke St. Louis’ imagination and galvanize support for
the movement, Chicago 2016 chairman and CEO Pat Ryan met Monday with
Civic Progress, a get-together he also hoped could bolster the private
funding to help the Games’ site selection, to be announced in October.

A winning Chicago effort also could have broader ripples for St. Louis,
just 300 miles from the action.

An Olympics held in Chicago, St. Louis Sports Commission president
Frank Viverito said, perhaps would make St. Louis a more likely
candidate for hosting various Olympic trials and a more compelling site
for barnstorming exhibitions by U.S. teams leading up to the Games.

"So it’s absolutely clear that St. Louis would love to see Chicago
get the Games and also clear that we’d love to be able to move forward
to solidify any of these opportunities," he said.

St. Louis applied in September for a role as host for soccer, which
by preference of the international association has been spread around
host nations in several Olympics.

As of now, the site would be the Edward Jones Dome, the only local
facility that meets the International Olympic Committee minimum
seating capacity of 30,000. Busch Stadium may or may not be able to
be configured for soccer but is thought to be unavailable for weeks
during mid-summer.

An Olympic soccer game has yet to be played indoors, though some 1994
World Cup games were played at the Pontiac (Mich.) Silverdome and no
one has signaled to St. Louis that it couldn’t be done.

Ryan was uncertain of how many other cities had applied for
preliminaries but said it was more than four.

Perhaps of greater potential impact in terms of tourism, visibility
and even engagement with the public is the prospect of other countries
sending teams here for final training so they can get acclimated to
the time zone and weather.

The region has several world-class facilities, including the Rec-Plex
in St. Peter’s, the track at Southern Illinois-Edwardsville and
assorted training centers at Lindenwood, St. Louis University, the
University of Missouri-St. Louis and Washington University.

"I can’t think of a place visiting nations would rather be than on
the campus of the stadium and field house that actually hosted" the
1904 Olympics, said Viverito, noting that campus dormitories would
be available for housing.

Beside the appeal of facilities, Ryan and Viverito said, a chance
to bond with immigrants from various countries could be a factor in
national governing bodies decisions about where to go.

With its enormous Bosnian population, for instance, St. Louis may
have appeal for the Bosnian national team. On a smaller scale, the
Armenian community in Granite City could be a reason for the Armenian
national contingent — 25 members in Beijing — to stay locally.

"My guess is that each of those countries would have a specific
approach to it, that they’re looking to be in a certain place,
looking to be here for a certain amount of time, (for) certain types
of facilities," Viverito said.

Though the event is more than seven years away, the sports commission
has been laying groundwork in case Chicago prevails. For example,
SIUE athletics director Brad Hewitt said in an e-mail Monday, the
school has submitted a "letter of interest to be a training site"
to the sports commission.

Of course, all of the possibilities hinge on Chicago being awarded
the Games over Madrid, Rio de Janiero and Tokyo.

"People say, ‘What are the odds of you winning?’" Ryan said. "I say,
‘At least 25 percent.’"

If Chicago wins, odds are St. Louis does, too.

ARMENIAN CULTURAL MONTH IN LIMOZH
By Nana Petrosian

AZG Armenian Daily
28/01/2009

Culture

Armenian cultural month has started January 23 in Limozh,
France. According to RA Foreign Ministry press service, it started
with an exhibition under heading "Armenia; a Christian country in
the Caucasus" that was held at Limozh Town Library. Members of the
Town Council, MPs, Mayors and hundreds of representatives of local
society were present at the opening ceremony.

The opening ceremony started with the anthem of the Republic of
Armenia and Komitas songs performed by the young students of Limozh
Conservatory.

French MP, first Mayor of Limozh Mrs. Monika Bulesten and Armenian
Envoy to France Hamlet Gasparian delivered welcome speeches.

The exhibition embraces old and modern maps, artistic and applied
art things, archival and new photos, old publications and materials
of new times that present the past and present of Armenia and daily
life of Armenians and ethnic minorities living there.

The cultural month includes concerts of classic and modern music,
recitation, showing of French feature and documentary films on Armenian
themes, lectures and round-tables on Armenia and the Armenian people.

The Armenian cultural month will last until February 28. It is
organized with the assistance of Limozh town authorities and with
the efforts of "Caucasus-Armenia plus" NGO.

ARMENIAN TRADE DEFICIT DEEPENS SHARPLY IN 2008
by Venla Sipila

World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
January 26, 2009

According to the latest customs-based trade data from the Armenian
National Statistical Service, the country’s trade deficit for last
year as a whole measured 1.022 trillion dram (some $3US.5 billion),
ARKA News reports. This total marks a widening of around 58%
compared with the annual shortfall of $2US.1 billion registered in
2007. Exports in 2008 amounted to 326.9 billion dram, falling by 7.2%
from the previous year, while imports soared by 35% to stand at 1.349
trillion dram for the year. In December alone, exports fell by 8.2%
from November, while imports gained 5.3% on the month.

Significance:The now reported level of trade deficit implies a deficit
to GDP ratio of around 28%, showing deterioration from the 2007 ratio
of 23%. Armenian external balances provided a cause for intensifying
concern towards the end of the year, when exports started to fall
in annual terms at the same time as imports have soared. The trade
figures for the latest months suggest some easing of annual import
growth, and this development should continue as the recent very
rapid economic growth finally seems to be cooling, thus leading to
moderating import demand. Nevertheless, risks related to Armenia
external balances are likely to stay high for some time. Indeed, the
scope for narrowing of the trade deficit is constrained by weakness
of exports, as the outlook for external demand remains very muted
in the current global economic downturn. In addition, the upcoming
increase in the price of gas charged by the Russian energy giant
Gazprom to $154US per 1,000 cubic metres (cm) from $110US per 1,000
cm this year will have an upward impact on the import bill from the
beginning of April 2009 onwards. Thus, especially considering the
weakened outlook for investment and remittance inflows due to the
international financial and economic crisis, Armenia’s wide external
deficit continues to signal significant vulnerability and serve as
a source of considerable financial risks.

Institute for Policy Studies
FPIF Commentary
Russia and Iran Get Strategic
Col. Sam Gardiner, USAF (ret.) | January 27, 2009
Editor: Erik Leaver

Foreign Policy In Focus

While many analysts predicted a rosier picture for U.S.-Iranian relations
with the Obama administration, the situation is rapidly becoming profoundly
more difficult and more complicated. The new dimension is Russia.
On February 20, the Russian Federation Security Council and the State
Council will approve a new national security strategy to go through 2020.
Without saying the "United States," the draft document clearly identifies
the United States as Russia’s primary rival for the next decade. It goes on
to say that the primary focus of the struggle will be for hydrocarbons in
some very specific areas. The Middle East and Central Asia are mentioned
specifically. In these areas, according to the document, the struggle could
develop into a military confrontation.
Russia’s last general security document was adopted in 2000 and was much
more general than this one about the security objectives of the Russian
Federation. The new draft is much more focused and gives indications of
future policy directions.
Looking at the developments of the past 90 days through the filter of the
new Russian security framework, a clearer picture emerges. It’s no longer a
question for the United States of whether or not Russia will support
additional sanctions on Iran. That won’t happen. Russia is on the path to
make Iran a strategic partner, a counter to the United States in the regions
of rivalry.
The United States falls into a trap in assuming that Russia doesn’t want a
nuclear- armed Iran. Russian officials repeat over and over that they have
no evidence that Iran has a weapons program. U.S. officials discount that
statement but shouldn’t. The United States needs to remember that Russia has
nuclear engineers inside Iran working with the Iranians.
Strategic Partnership
There are three examples in the past few months that suggest a strategic
partnership: the nuclear power plant at Bushehr, the S-300 missile, and a
refinery in Armenia.
The work on the Bushehr nuclear reactor has been punctuated by continuous
delay. One almost got the impression that Russia was dragging its feet on
purpose. However, Russia appears to have a renewed commitment to the work.
Russia recently announced that it was planning to dispatch up to 3,000
technicians there. It’s hard to argue that Russia has any interest in
punishing Iran for enriching in light of this project.
Although the system hasn’t been delivered, the Russians know that the United
States and Israel don’t want the new air defense capability, the S-300
missile, sold to the Iranians. The Russians seem to have gone ahead anyway.
That makes no sense if they share our objective of punishing the Iranians
for not suspending their enrichment program.
The refinery in Armenia is not as blatant, but equally meaningful. The
discussions between GAZPROM and Armenia are for a refinery that would serve
both Armenia’s needs as well as export to Iran. On the top of almost
everyone’s list for the next level of sanctions against Iran is refined
petroleum products; Israel wants it and even President Barack Obama
suggested it when he gave a speech to the AIPAC convention last summer.
Russia is diminishing the sanctions on refined petroleum in advance of a
formal proposal by the United States.
On Friday January 23, Russia and Iran signed an agriculture agreement in
Moscow. The Russian Minister of Agriculture called Iran a Russia "strategic
partner." Although the agreement is a small step, this is the first time I
recall a Russian using that phrase.
Over the weekend, I talked to a member of the Defense Subcommittee of the
House Appropriations Committee. He told me he has had recent conversations
with some Iranian officials. They told him the United States has forced Iran
in the direction of the Russians. That’s certainly consistent with recent
developments.
I also exchanged e-mails on this subject with a former European ambassador
to Tehran. His made a very interesting point. Iran is the only potential
competitor for natural gas to Europe. He said Moscow doesn’t want Tehran to
get too close to Europe to the point it could jeopardize Europe’s dependence
on GAZPROM. We’ve seen the evidence of Russia and GAZPROM leverage over
Europe recently.
The consequences of the new Russian security strategy and the developing of
a relationship with Iran are very significant. Incentives for the Iranians
to agree to anything as a result of talking now have much less value for
them. The Iranians haven’t changed their behavior with over 30 years of
sanctions. With the Russians as a strategic partner, there is no reason to
believe any new sanction will be effective.
Another consequence of what we’re seeing is an even greater separation
between the objectives of the United States and Israel with Russia in the
equation. That will make progress with both Iran and the other pressing
Middle East issues more difficult for the United States. Israel will have to
understand that although the United States supports its security, we have
our own interests in the region. Israel must respect those interests.
This isn’t a done deal. Even if the Russians want to move to a strategic
partnership, a new relationship may not be embraced in Tehran. The Iranians
are suspicious of Russia. Iran also wants to be an independent power and not
a power in the shadow of Russia.
The new Russian national security strategy is significantly changing the
equation in the Middle East for the Obama administration, how they will
react is anyone’s guess at the moment.
Sam Gardiner, a Foreign Policy In Focus contributor, is a retired Air Force
colonel who has taught military strategy and operations at the National War
College, Air War College, and Naval War College.

Armenian analyst: Moscow Declaration is American version of document
earlier planned by Russia

2009-01-24 14:37:00

ArmInfo. The Moscow Declaration is American version of the document
earlier planned by Russia, says independent analyst Igor Muradyan.

It is not a secret that this declaration has changed nothing in the
format of the peace process. It has just formalized the USA’s plans to
further imitate efforts to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
By signing the declaration Russia has been involved in this imitation.
Imitation as such is a good process as it guarantees peace and puts off
war.

The only thing Muradyan is concerned about is that France will be soon
replaced by the EU as OSCE MG co-chair. "This is very bad for Armenia
as France and the EU are quite different things," says Muradyan.

TURKISH PM ASKED TO ADDRESS ANTI-SEMITISM

Jewish Telegraphic Agency
446/jewish-groups-call-on-turkish-prime-minister-t o-address-anti-semitism
Jan 22 2009
NY

WASHINGTON (JTA) — Five major Jewish organizations called on the
Turkish prime minister to "urgently address" a wave of anti-Semitism
in his country.

In a letter to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the groups’ leaders wrote, "Turkey
rightly prides itself on many centuries of coexistence with Jews. But
today, our Jewish friends in Turkey feel besieged and threatened."

Signing on to the letter were the leaders of the American Jewish
Committee, Anti-Defamation League, B’nai B’rith International, the
Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations and
the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs.

Among the incidents cited in the letter are Istanbul billboards full
of anti-Jewish propaganda posters, the door to a Jewish-owned shop
in Istanbul with a sign reading "Do not buy from here, since this
shop is owned by a Jew" and the defacing of a synagogue, which has
led to the closure of all but one of the synagogues in the city of
Izmir. Protesters also have expressed their hatred of Jews at the
Israeli Consulate.

The groups’ missive notes a connection between "the inflammatory
denunciation of Israel by Turkish officials" and the rise of
anti-Semitism. Erdogan has called Israeli actions in Gaza "a crime
against humanity" and told a municipal election campaign rally that
the Jewish state was "perpetrating inhuman actions which would bring
it to self-destruction."

"To be sure, we disagree with your government’s view of the situation
in the Gaza Strip and with some of your own harshest statements,"
the leaders wrote. "We should certainly agree, however, that such
differences of opinion do not justify any display of anti-Semitism
in Turkey or elsewhere."

The organizations that signed on to the letter declined to support a
2007 U.S. congressional resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide,
concerned that such legislation could harm the relationships between
the United States and Turkey and Israel and Turkey.

KUDRIN: ARMENIA APPLIES TO RUSSIA FOR STABILIZATION LOAN

ARKA
Jan 22, 2009

YEREVAN, January 22. /ARKA/. Armenia has applied to Russia for a
stabilization loan to mitigate the consequences of the global crisis
and negotiations are under way, Russian Vice-Premier and Minister of
Finance Aleksey Kudrin told RIA Novosti agency.

Kudrin has not mentioned the amount and the terms of the possible
loan pending the completion of the negotiations.

Earlier Armenian Premier Tigran Sargsyan told ARKA Agency that
Armenia and Russia continue consultations to jointly counteract
the global crisis and reported that at the end of December Armenian
Minister of Finance Tigran Davtyan returned from Moscow where he had
a meeting with his Russian counterpart. The Premier also said that
the Minister and his team came back with quite promising results. He
stressed that the consultations will go on and pointed out Armenia’s
interest in expanding cooperation with its strategic partner. The
cooperation potential is huge and it is not used in full, the Premier
said.