Author: nina hovnanian

PEACE FOR OUR TIME IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH
By Thomas de Waal

The Moscow Times

June 24 2011
Russia

Call it a sleeping volcano, the elephant or perhaps even the mammoth
in the room. The Armenian-Azeri conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is the
longest-running unresolved dispute in the former Soviet Union, dating
back to 1988. Much is at stake, from the ordinary human predicament
of more than 1 million people displaced by war to the strategic map
of the South Caucasus, which has been tied up by this dispute for
a generation.

The peace process for Nagorno-Karabakh, mediated by the co-chairs
of the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe, France, Russia and the United States, does not get much
attention, for understandable reasons. It has dragged on for years
without results. There is nothing newsworthy about it. Negotiations
are conducted behind closed doors between an inner group of about a
dozen individuals, making it very closed – in fact, far too closed
for its own good.

A few near successes trumpeted by the mediators over the years
inevitably evoke cynicism about the latest initiative. Many Armenians,
having won a military victory in 1994, do not want to give up captured
territory in return for an uncertain future. Many Azeris, flush with
oil and gas revenues, believe they can wait until circumstances turn
more in their favor in a few years.

This time could be different, however. President Dmitry Medvedev
has convened a meeting of Azeri President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan in Kazan on Friday. He is calling on them to
agree to a framework deal, the Document on Basic Principles, which
the parties to the conflict have been discussing in various drafts
since 2007 and whose basic ideas were first formulated in 2004. In
other words, a small document has been under discussion for a period
longer than World War II. It is truly a moment of decision.

The outline of the Document on Basic Principles was released into the
public domain in two declarations made at the Group of Eight summits
at L’Aquila and Muskoka in 2009 and 2010. It consists of six elements
that seek to reconcile the Armenian aspiration for Nagorno-Karabakh’s
secession with Azerbaijan’s claim to territorial integrity.

The six elements, as stated at Muskoka, are: “The return of the
occupied territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh; interim status
for Nagorno-Karabakh guaranteeing security and self-governance;
a corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh; final status of
Nagorno-Karabakh to be determined in the future by a legally binding
expression of will; the right of all internally displaced persons and
refugees to return; and international security guarantees, including
a peacekeeping operation.”

The most eye-catching elements in this package are the second
and fourth points, which try to square the impossible issue
of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status. They are designed to persuade the
Armenian side to give up the Azeri territories it captured outside
Nagorno-Karabakh and has kept as a “security zone” pending a decision
on the future status of the disputed enclave. The innovative term
“interim status” will fascinate diplomats and international legal
scholars as they ponder similar sovereignty disputes. It means a
status that falls short of independence but gives Nagorno-Karabakh a
place in the international system it does not have at the moment. The
“legally binding expression of will” constitutes the theoretical
promise of a vote on independence for the Armenian side. The timing
and modalities of such a vote are the main target of concern for the
Azeri side as it goes to Kazan.

The declaration made at the G8 summit in Deauville in May by Medvedev,
U.S. President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy
crystallized the impression that the mediators have decided that
now is the moment – five years on – to make the leaders bridge their
differences on the Document on Basic Principles. The differences on
paper are small enough for Medvedev to raise the stakes and demand
his two colleagues to close the deal.

Medvedev has personally involved himself in this process. This is the
fifth meeting he has convened, and he has edited the document himself.

His central role usefully turns the spotlight on Aliyev and Sargsyan
so that they have fewer places to hide. It also exposes him and his
reputation to the risk of failure.

Up until now, resistance in the region to a peace settlement has
always been stronger than international pressure. The suspicion has
always been that the Armenian and Azeri leaders are too comfortable
with their status quo, bad as it is for their citizens, and prefer
not to step into terra incognita, unleash domestic opposition and make
peace with the enemy. Leaders on both sides – especially Azerbaijan,
the losing party in the conflict of 1991-1994 – continue to use strong
nationalist rhetoric at home, even as they negotiate peace in private
in foreign capitals. For peace to begin to happen on the ground,
there needs to be a “rhetoric cease-fire” in which trust can start
to form gradually between the two conflicting parties.

It is worth underscoring the amazing fact that for all the years of
diplomacy that have gone into it, the Document on Basic Principles
is only a framework agreement. If it is agreed, there will then be a
push to sign a comprehensive peace treaty several months down the line.

That also means there will be a dangerous moment of hiatus in which
even if initial agreement is reached, heavy domestic Armenian and
Azeri opposition will remain against the deal.

Medvedev’s mini-summit in Kazan could usher in a fundamentally new
phase in this protracted conflict, but there will still be a lot of
work to do. If there is a breakthrough, it will require much greater
international commitment to make peace a reality on the ground. If
there is disappointment, expectations will have been raised and will
have to be handled. There will be a greater risk of conflict, and the
other international actors – primarily the United States – will need
to move in and apply pressure to hold things together in the Caucasus.

Thomas de Waal is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace in Washington.

G. MINASYAN SAYS ARTSAKH IS A SIDE OF NEGOTIATIONS

Panorama
June 24 2011
Armenia

“The White House statement on the eve of Kazan meeting has been of
great importance, since it underlines Artsakh to be a part of the
negotiations,” Republican MP Gagik Minasyan told Panorama.am.

Member of Parliament noted that the international community, on behalf
of the United States, publicly declares there are three parties of
the negotiations – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh.

“This is really very important since in the aftermath of it the fate
of Artsakh will be defined and Karabakhi side must have determined
role in this respect,” MP said.

ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN SUMMIT FALLS SHORT OF BREAKTHROUGH
By Stuart Williams

Agence France Presse
June 24 2011

MOSCOW – Armenia and Azerbaijan reported progress Friday at a summit
hosted by Russia but fell short of a breakthrough in a territorial
row that world powers fear could erupt into armed conflict.

“The heads of state noted the reaching of mutual understanding on
a number of questions, whose resolution helps create conditions
to approve the basic principles,” the leaders said in a statement
published by the Kremlin.

The two sides have faced international pressure to sign up to a
“basic principles” agreement on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict zone,
but apparently did not manage to agree terms at the summit in the
Russian Volga city of Kazan.

The leaders were shown sitting around a table and smiling for cameras
on Russian television, which did not broadcast their remarks.

The meeting supervised by Russia President Dmitry Medvedev had sparked
optimism that Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian and his Azerbaijani
counterpart Ilham Aliyev might achieve the first major progress in
many years of fruitless talks.

The two sides still exchange deadly fire around the Nagorny Karabakh
conflict zone, 17 years after fighting a war over the now Armenian
separatist-controlled region in western Azerbaijan.

The Russian foreign ministry had said in a statement that the meeting,
held behind closed doors, was “expected to play a decisive role in
the Nagorny Karabakh peace process.”

Moscow added that the document Medvedev hoped to get the two enemies to
sign at the meeting was designed to pave the way for “a comprehensive
peace agreement” to be sealed at a later date.

In the statement released after the summit, the leaders expressed
“gratitude” to the leaders of Russia, the United States and France
for their “constant attention to the problem of regulating Nagorny
Karabakh.”

They also said they “highly rated the personal efforts of the Russian
president to help reach agreements.”

But they failed to meet international pressure, expressed in recent
days, that they would sign up to a “basic principles” agreement.

US President Barack Obama on Thursday had called the two presidents
and urged them to sign the document, the White House said, while
French leader Nicolas Sarkozy sent a letter calling for the agreement
to be finalised.

“There are moments in history when the leadership of a country should
demonstrate to its people courage, wisdom and the road toward peace,”
Sarkozy said in the letter released by the Armenian presidency.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe — which
has led the international peace initiative since the Karabakh war —
had also expressed hopes for a breakthrough.

“Very rarely have we observed moments when our hopes for a final peace
settlement have been as high as they are now,” said OSCE Secretary
General Marc Perrin de Brichambaut.

Armenia’s Sarkisian told a meeting of the Council of Europe on
Wednesday that he was “full of optimism” but fearful of new demands
from Azerbaijan.

In a sign of continuing differences, Azerbaijan’s Aliyev responded
in an interview Thursday that Armenia needed to show “the political
will to make important steps forward”.

The interim basic principles agreement would see an Armenian
withdrawal from areas around Karabakh that were also seized during
the post-Soviet war.

It also envisages international security guarantees and a vote on
the final status of the territory at some point in the future.

The conflict in the 1990s killed some 30,000 people and forced around
a million from their homes.

Western negotiators are concerned that a new flare-up could be even
bloodier and potentially threaten pipelines that take Caspian Sea
oil and gas from Azerbaijan to Europe.

Russia meanwhile remains sensitive to any rise in hostilities on its
vulnerable and already restive southern border.

Huge obstacles remain to a final peace deal because Armenia says
Karabakh will never return to Baku’s control while Azerbaijan insists
that the region must remain part of its sovereign territory.

ARFD TO ENTER PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN ARMENIA AS INDEPENDENT FORCE

news.am
June 24 2011
Armenia

YEREVAN. – The Armenian Revolutionary Federation – Dashnaktutyun (ARFD)
will enter presidential race as an independent force, leader of ARF
Supreme Body Armen Rustamyan stated prior to the party’s general
meeting on Friday.

“However, the issue will not be discussed during ARFD’s general
meeting, as such issues are discussed at the ARFV Supreme Body in
Armenia,” Rustamyan stressed.

The general meeting of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation
Dashnaktsutyun has started in Yerevan on Friday. The representatives
of the ruling parties, as well as parliamentary and extra-parliamentary
opposition are invited to the meeting.

The film on ARFD’s activities within the recent 3 years was shown
at the meeting. The meeting will be held behind closed doors for a
couple of days.

DASHNAK LEADER AGAINST ‘REVOLUTIONARY’ ACTIONS
Anush Martirosian

24.06.2011

Armenia — Hrant Markarian, a leader of the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation party.

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) stands for a
“systemic regime change” in Armenia but considers any “revolutionary”
action taken for that purpose unacceptable, a top leader of the
influential opposition party said on Friday.

Hrant Markarian, the de facto head of Dashnaktsutyun’s governing
Bureau, strongly criticized Armenian government policies as he opened
a party congress in Yerevan that brought together hundreds of delegates
from Armenia and its worldwide Diaspora.

“The current authorities have neither the will nor the ability to
put an end to corruption, economic injustice and the impunity of
the privileged class,” he said in a speech. “We need a systemic
regime change.”

Markarian made clear, however, that Dashnaktsutyun will not seek
to topple President Sarkisian and his government with sustained
street demonstrations and other radical actions. “When there are
no real reasons for revolution and life itself doesn’t dictate it,
revolutionary activity becomes an unacceptable adventure,” he said.

The remarks underlined a cautious line followed by the party since its
exit from Sarkisian’s coalition cabinet in April 2009. Dashnaktsutyun
leaders backed the March 2008 suppression of nonstop antigovernment
protests staged by former President Levon Ter-Petrosian in the wake
of a disputed presidential election.

Armen Rustamian, another Dashnaktsutyun leader, clarified that
the party will be ready to campaign against the government on the
street if Sarkisian accepts a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict currently proposed by international mediators. “We would
launch a struggle more powerful than our struggle against the [2009]
Turkish-Armenian protocols was,” he told RFE/RL’s Armenian service.

Markarian reaffirmed Dashnaktsutyun’s rejection of the “basic
principles” of the conflict’s resolution which Sarkisian was due to
discuss with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in Kazan, Russia
later in the day. He said they require “unacceptable concessions”
from the Armenian side.

“The whole nation must be prepared to face that not-so-unlikely
moment,” Markarian added, referring to the possible signing of an
Armenian-Azerbaijani peace accord at Kazan.

The Zharangutyun (Heritage) party, another major opposition group
represented in parliament, issued a similar warning on Thursday.

The Dashnaktsutyun congress will continue behind the closed doors
in the resort town of Tsaghkadzor in the following days. Its opening
session was attended by senior representative of Sarkisian’s Republican
Party of Armen and its junior coalition partner, the Prosperous
Armenia Party.

ARTHUR BAGHDASARYAN TO MEET WITH AHMADINEJAD

04:37 pm | June 24, 2011 | Official

An Armenian delegation led by the Secretary of the National Security
Council Arthur Baghdasaryan left for Iran on Friday for a two-day
working visit.

Arthur Baghdasaryan is scheduled to deliver a speech on “The Challenges
of Global Fight against Terrorism” at the International Conference
on Global Fight against Terrorism.

The NSC Secretary is expected to meet with Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad and Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security
Council Saeed Jalili, NSC press office reported.

CONSTRUCTION OF NORTH-SOUTH TRANSPORT CORRIDOR MAY BE LAUNCHED LATER THIS YEAR

/ARKA/
JUNE 24, 2011
YEREVAN

YEREVAN, June 24. /ARKA/. Construction of North-South transport
corridor may be launched later this year, Armenian Economy Minister
Tigran Davtyan said Friday at a news conference.

A day earlier, Armenian National Assembly ratified a $170-million
loan agreement signed between the Armenian government and the Asian
Development Bank on May 30, 2011 to implement the second component
of the program of the construction program. this money would be
spent for rehabilitation of 41 kilometers of Ashtarak-Talin road,
a section of North-South corridor.

Since an international tender announced by the government to select
a company for building an 18 kilometer section of the road corridor
between the capital city Yerevan, and Ashtarak to the north, the first
phase of North-South Road Corridor project, did not reveal a winner,
that section will be joined with the section between Ashtarak and
Talin and a new tender will be announced in late June. “It means new
jobs will be created, tax inflow will intensify and GDP will grow”,
Davtyan said.

The program and the $500-million agreement with the Asian Development
Bank were approved by the Armenian government on January 14, 2010.

The aim of the program is to connect Armenian northern areas with
southern town of Meghri, on the border with Iran, and ensure access
to world markets. The road will make Armenia a transit state in
transportation of the region countries’ cargoes.

ARMENIA TO LAUNCH NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR CONSTRUCTION BY YEAREND

PanARMENIAN.Net
June 24, 2011 – 17:19 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – RA Economy Minister Tigran Davtyan has said that
Armenia will launch the construction of North-South transport corridor
in yearend, with the second tranche of the project already ratified
by the parliament.

On June 23, Armenian parliament ratified a credit agreement between
Armenian government and Asian Development Bank, envisaging allocation
of the second tranche of USD 170 million for North-South corridor
construction. Total cost of the program is USD 500 million.

The Corridor will allow Armenia to become a transit state in regional
transportation industry, as well as join the Black Sea circular
highway.

TIGRAN DAVTYAN PROMISES TO REMEMBER LONG-SUFFERING GYUMRI INDUSTRIAL PARK

PanARMENIAN.Net
June 24, 2011 – 20:38 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Armenia will focus on creation of two free economic
zones within the near two years on areas near Armenian Zvartnots
airport and on the basis of Mars plant, which is conditioned by the
law on Free Economic Zones ratified by the Parliament and signed of the
Armenian President, according to Minister of Economy Tigran Davtyan.

“The first free zone will be agriculturally-oriented, and the works
are carried out by Corporacion America company; some of its elements
have already started operation, namely cargo terminal and refrigerating
complex,” the Minister told a press conference on June 24.

The results of negotiations with Sintronics on the second free zone
will be announced in the near 1-2 months. As the head of ministry said,
there are plans on creation of the third free economic zone of high
technologies, within which a long-suffering Gyumri industrial park
will not be forgotten.

Touching upon possibilities of free zones creation in the country
frontier regions to be developed Tigran Davtyan said that we should
be careful, “so that not to infringe the tax and customs fields of
the country”.

SERZH SARGSYAN MADE 2 MISTAKES AT PACE SESSION: ARMENIAN NATIONAL CONGRESS

epress.am
06.24.2011

During the Jun. 22 Parliamentary Assembly for the Council of Europe
(PACE) session, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan allowed for two major
mistakes, said Armenian National Congress (HAK) senior representative
Levon Zurabyan at a press conference in Yerevan today.

“The first mistake was that he said that Armenia doesn’t recognize
Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence since it respects Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity. I hope that this statement was simply a slip-up
on his part, and it should be quickly rectified. On this matter,
[HAK leader Levon] Ter-Petrossian very clearly said in his interview
to Moskovskiye Novosti [Moscow News]… that the only reason Armenia
doesn’t recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh today is that
it doesn’t want to undermine peace talks,” he said.

The Armenian leader’s second mistake, according to Zurabyan, was
the statement that if war breaks out today, Azerbaijan will have
the advantage since Armenia has not prepared its people for war as
has Azerbaijan.

“First, why hasn’t [Armenia] prepared [for war] if there is a
situation of war and second, the chief commander of the Republic of
Armenia shouldn’t make such a statement. It increases the demand for
aggression by Azerbaijan,” he said.