Institute for War & Peace Reporting, UK
CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, No. 593
May 30, 2011
WINDS OF CHANGE IN ARMENIAN POLITICS
Bitter stand-off between main opposition group and governing elite
seems to be ending.
By Armen Poghosyan
Armenia could be on the brink of a major political re-alignment,
according to analysts who see signs that the government and the main
opposition movement are burying their differences.
On May 26, the Armenian parliament approved an amnesty for around 400
prisoners to mark the 20th anniversary of the country’s independence.
The amnesty is expected to include people jailed after engaging in
political activity.
`This is of humanitarian as well as political significance. I am sure
it will have a positive effect on domestic politics,’ speaker Hovik
Abrahamyan said. `Our country cannot allow enmity within society, or
between opposing political forces. We must create a culture of
civilised dialogue.’
The opposition Armenian National Congress, ANC, has demanded fresh
elections ever since the disputed presidential polls of 2008, which
its leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan lost to Serzh Sargsyan. Mass opposition
protests were broken up by police, and about ten people died in the
crackdown.
Much of the current tension in Armenia stems from that violent time.
Under the prison release, one of six opposition figures still in jail
for calling for revolution has been freed, and another will definitely
be released. The fate of the other four remains unclear.
The amnesty followed weeks of media speculation about an apparent
rapprochement between the government and the ANC, and the implications
if that happened.
`The state we dream of is one where society and state engage in open,
public, extended dialogue. This must not finish; the dialogue must be
permanent,’ Ter-Petrosyan said in an interview to Radio Liberty.
`There is a dialogue under way. We have openly presented our demands,
obligations and plans to the authorities and to society, and the
authorities are openly replying to them.’
Experts say the authorities in Armenia are concerned by the wave of
protests that have rocked Arab countries this year, and fear that the
opposition might stage something similar. The three main
pro-government parties – the Republican Party, Prosperous Armenia and
Rule of Law – signed a coalition deal to support Sargsyan in the next
presidential election, in what analysts said was a sign of nervousness
since the ballot is still two years away.
More impetus to make concessions to the opposition may have come from
an interview which US ambassador Marie Yovanovitch gave to Radio
Liberty in March, in which she said that Armenian politics needed to
change significantly.
`It is important to build a society, to build a government that is
open, that is transparent, that is listening to people, that is
accountable to the people, and where the people can participate, where
there’s a give and take. And we believe those governments in countries
are the strongest and make the best partners for the United States,’
she said.
Arman Hakobyan, an expert from the Centre for Political Studies, said
it was noteworthy that Yovanovitch’s remarks coincided with
Ter-Petrosyan’s presentation of his demands.
When Ter-Petrosyan first submitted a list of 15 key demands on March
1, they included the release of all political prisoners, the creation
of an international commission to investigate the 2008 crackdown, and
the dismissal of Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan and other top
officials.
At a protest rally on March 17, however, he significantly softened
this position, removing the demand that senior officials be sacked,
and insisting only on freedom for political prisoners, permission to
hold demonstrations, and a new investigation into the 2008 protests.
On April 20, the authorities announced that such an investigation
would take place, and six days later the ANC was allowed to hold a
protest on Freedom Square in central Yerevan, for the first time in
three years.
These moves have led other political parties to suspect that
authorities and the ANC are close to a deal, although neither has
confirmed that.
`The ANC and the government have a deal on holding an early
parliamentary election. Right now, an early election would be very
useful to the ANC,’ Ruben Hakobyan, deputy head of the opposition
Heritage Party, said.
Vahan Hovhannisyan, who leads the opposition Dashnaktsutyun party in
parliament, said ANC’s three demands could easily be met.
`It looks like the ANC formulated demands that would make the
government’s job easier,’ he said. `The authorities have entered into
dialogue with the ANC, but not publicly.’
At the end of April, Prosperous Armenia, one of the parties in the
governing coalition, said it would run separately in the next
parliamentary election. Robert Kocharyan, the country’s former
president, who is closely linked in the media to Prosperous Armenia
but rarely makes statements, gave an interview which seemed to reflect
concerns that the party might lose its place at the top table.
`If the dialogue relates to establishing civilised rules for the
political contest and refraining from radicalising it, then of course
I take a positive view of it,’ Kocharyan told the Mediamax news
agency. `If the dialogue is just about the parameters for a pretend
contest for political office, and for the rewards of that, then it
looks more like collusion behind voters’ backs.’
Analysts say Kocharyan’s remarks suggest that current political
alignments are about to be shaken up.
`Sargsyan’s and Ter-Petrosyan’s teams are taking steps towards each
other. There’s no deal, there’s no dialogue, but it is obvious that
the actions of these two teams are in harmony,’ political commentator
Souren Sourenyants said. `It’s clear that in this environment, all the
other political groups are trying to display their independence. If
the ANC and the authorities find a common language, then a bipolar
political system will be created, and the role of other parties will
be minimal.’
Armen Poghosyan is a freelance journalist in Armenia.