Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijani Opposition Press
June 7, 2018 Thursday
From unjustified expectations to an unjustified crisis
by Analytical Service Turan
The period from the presidential elections in Azerbaijan, April 11, to
the republic's 100th anniversary, on May 28, and after was marked by a
new wave of pressure on the opposition and civil society, which is
commensurate with the events of 2014. Then a wave of repression
against prominent civil society activists and the breakdown of
relations with Western donor organizations led to the establishment of
classical authoritarianism in Azerbaijan.
The actions of President Aliyev's administration against his opponents
went against the expectations of the society and the international
community, who saw the 100th anniversary of the Republic as a chance
to establish constructive relations between the authorities and
society. For example, the issue of a "golden amnesty" with regard to
political prisoners was seen as a possible step of the goodwill of the
authorities in the way of establishing a dialogue. The theme of this
amnesty was voiced by the ardent apologists of the regime, such as
member of the political council of the New Azerbaijan Party Siyavush
Novruzov. But the steps that followed after the inauguration were
diametrically opposed, or rather provocatively confrontational. There
was no amnesty. Arrests began in the Popular Front and others, the
leader of the Popular Front Party Ali Kerimli was accused of money
laundering, a blackening campaign was launched with the Armenian
overtones of the former head of the National Council of Democratic
Forces, playwright Rustam Ibrahimbayov and others.
Context
In this sense, it is important to assess the situation from the
standpoint of events and dispositions of internal and external players
that covered the period under review. They should include:
-presidential elections,
-institutional and personnel reforms,
-100 anniversary of the Academy of Sciences,
- the signing of the next oil and gas contracts with British
Petroleum, Statoil (Equinor), the company Total started drilling at
the Absheron field,
- opening of the southern gas corridor TANAP,
-the beginning of the implementation of the project of a free economic
zone in the area of the international port of Alat,
the international revolution in Armenia,
- New US sanctions against Iran,
-deployment of the Syrian military campaign to divide the country into
zones of responsibility of Russia, the United States, Turkey and Iran.
External factor
Let's start with the fact that the attitude of the West to the regime
in this period has changed diametrically. Although we did not observe
open support or condemnation of the idea of early presidential
elections, the nature and conditions of its holding, however, the tone
was too restrained and ensured the legitimacy of the elections, which
President Aliyev needed. The pre-election and post-election messages
of the leaders of the EU and the US were not recognition of victory,
but were appeals for invitations to cooperation in energy, reform,
security and fighting corruption. Democracy and human rights fell out
of the lexicon in contrast to similar messages of past years (for
example, in 2015-2016 the pressure on the regime was noticeable). In
principle, these invitations were more reminiscent of the obligations
that Aliyev apparently promised to fulfill after his election.
In fact, it is striking that the West is courting Aliyev and expects
some action from him. What are the possible expectations? We list:
- further implementation of oil and gas contracts,
- further development of a network of communication projects,
including pipelines, railways,
- the implementation of institutional reforms and the complete
elimination of the old team, based on clan and oligarchism,
- signing an agreement with the EU on strategic partnership,
- fight against corruption and legalization of the economy,
- creating conditions for the introduction of non-oil Western capital,
-participation in anti-Iranian sanctions.
Internal motivation
All these expectations should be considered as a weighty factor, which
allows Aliyev to take a tougher line in relation to society. Consider
options for motivating the actions of the administration. Among them
may be:
- the leader of the PFPA, Ali Kerimli, and his supporters for
pre-election actions. The front-line leader was an active organizer of
the pre-election rallies that spoiled the background, in fact, of the
technical elections that resulted from their boycott of the
opposition. The PFPA activists also actively conduct a virtual fight
with the regime in social networks, replaying the trolls recruited by
the regime.
-full neutralization of the opposition or its weakening against the
backdrop of intra-state struggle, which entered the culmination phase.
The president may be afraid of a link between the opposition and the
ceding position of the old team. Practically there is a replacement of
old cadres in all departments. The only exception is the Ministry of
Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Ministry
of Defense, the removal of personnel is inevitable and a matter of
time.
- pressure on the opposition in the conditions of the revolutionary
events in Armenia, which are an inspiring example of the possibility
of a change of power as a result of the will of the people,
- the spread of fear in society through demonstrative arrests of
activists against the background of growing social discontent among
the population. The latter represents a real threat, as was seen in
the example of the protest action of internally displaced persons in
front of the Cabinet of Ministers on June 5.
The authorities have always used demonstrative force against the
opposition in the face of growing social tension, indirectly letting
them know that it is ready to suppress any protests and expressions of
discontent. An example is the arrests of secular civil activists in
the second half of 2014 and religious activists in November 2015 on
the eve and during the development of the systemic crisis of 2015-.
Grains and tares
It is difficult in this case to separate the listed factors of
external and internal character from each other, they are most likely
interrelated. The only question is what is paramount. From the
external cuff of factors, the most important are the expectations
associated with reforming the political system and establishing
constructive relations. From the internal set of tools for motivating
the actions of the authorities, the main thing is the presence of a
crisis situation and social tension in society, which is not unknown
to the authorities, which are monitoring their public moods.
Thus, one can come to the conclusion that two lines - unjustified
expectations of the West and delaying the process of overcoming the
crisis, can provoke a new situation, when the unprecedented pressure
of the West, like the wave 2015-2016, will resume, and will have an
impact on public sentiment. It should also be recalled that the
authorities' pressure on the society of 2014 did not prevent the
system crisis of 2015, which they tried to prevent, and that was one
of the reasons for the then resonant arrests.