Is Azerbaijan Readying Itself for Another Round of War With Armenians?

Ararat Institute


February 19, 2018 by GrigorH


Is Azerbaijan Readying
Itself for Another Round of War With Armenians?


By Grigor Hakobyan

 

Summary:

In a speech to the ruling party New Azerbaijan
on February 6th, in addition to claiming the Republic of Artsakh as part of
Azerbaijan, Aliyev made territorial claims against the Republic of Armenia. He
specifically singled out Armenia’s capitol Yerevan, Lake Sevan and the Syunik
province (also known as Zangezoor). Aliyev stated: “Because Yerevan is our
historic land, and we should return to this historic land of Azerbaijanis. This
is our political and strategic goal.” Aliyev’s revanchist remarks were dismissed
by most Armenian politicians, analysts and media outlets while Minsk Group
co-chairs: USA, Russia and France offered very weak condemnations or no
response at all. Very few in Armenia or diaspora seriously considered the
implications of Aliyev’s comments that are no doubt a warning of a looming
confrontation that will resemble the war of 1988-1994 with more devastation
than before. This analysis is meant to close that gap and prepare the Armenians
around the world and the world community at large for the events to come.

 

Background:

Since the failed blitzkrieg of 2016 that
became to be known as a Four Day War in Armenia and diaspora, Azerbaijani
leadership continued to threaten the security of Armenian republics not only
through political statements both at home and abroad, but also through fast
phase acquisition of ever more devastating modern weaponry such as new T-90
tanks and BTR-80A/82A (APCs), additional quantities of TOS-1/A (thermobaric
rocket launchers) and others. Acquisitions of modern weapons were not limited
to Russian made tanks, artillery systems and air-defense systems only, military
products of other countries such as Turkey, Israel, Pakistan, South African
Republic and Czech Republic (Dana self-propelled howitzers and RM-70
multiple-launch rocket systems) made the cut as well.

 

Pumped up with new weapons and large military
budget, in light of apparent indifference on behalf of the international
community, Azerbaijan unexpectedly launched its blitzkrieg against the Armenian
positions along the entire LoC in Artsakh on April 1/2. It carried out combat
actions and war atrocities against Armenian civilians in the battlefield until
April 6th self-imposed ceasefire, when its military began to suffer significant
losses under Armenian counter-offensive that managed to drive Azerbaijani
troops back to its previous positions and reclaim more than a dozen of
previously held Armenian positions that were lost in the first few days of the
war. The appearance of Armenian short-range ballistic missile systems in
Artsakh (Scud-B and Iskander-E) deterred Azerbaijani military from pressing on
with its offensive while large number of casualties and panic overcame its
infantry that turned its tail and ran away from the battlefield.

 

 

Analysis:

In light of failed Azerbaijani blitzkrieg in
2016 and recent military drills conducted in Azerbaijan (particularly in
Nakhijevan) in the summer 2017 in conjunction with the Turkish military, it is
most probable to anticipate the next round of aggression to come from three different
directions: Aran (bordering Askeran and Martuni regions of Artsakh), Nakhijevan
(bordering Ararat, Vayots Dzor and Syunik provinces of Armenia) and
Ganja/Gazakh (bordering Tavush province of Armenia). Just like in 2016 it is
realistic to expect Azerbaijani forces to utilize various pro-Turkish militias
from Syria, hundreds of Turkish military “advisers” and ultra-nationalists
known as “gray wolves” in concert with Azerbaijani special forces at the
forefront of attacking formations. In the presence of vary capable air-defense
systems in possession of Armenian armed forces, use of combat aircrafts and
helicopters by Azerbaijan will be limited in nature. Meanwhile, “Kamikaze”
drones and other attack drones will make an exception due to their low cost and
expendability. Most likely they will be used first or in conjunction with the
barrage of rocket artillery against the Armenian positions.

 

Considering that Armenian positions along LoC
in all three directions are very well fortified and surrounded by minefields it
is most likely that the first round of attack will be carried out by long range
artillery systems utilizing BM-21 (Grad), BM-30 (Smerch), T-122
(Sakarya-Turkish), RM-70 (Vampire-Czech), and LAR-160 (Lynx-Israel) and EXTRA
(Extended Range Artillery-Israel) and long range canons such as Atmos 2000
(Israel), 2S7 Pion (USSR/Russia), 2S3 Akatsiya (USSR/Russia), 2S1 Gvozdika
(USSR/Russia), D-22, D-30 and other cannons. At closer ranges, TOS-1/A
thermobaric rocket systems will be utilized as well. The sappers will be tasked
with demining fields leading to Armenian positions while artillery carrys out
its bombardment. Soon afterwards, infantry attack supported by tank formations
(T-90 and T-72) and armored vehicles (BTR-80A/82A, BMP-2/3, ) under cover of mortar
fire from 2S31 Vena (Russia), 2S9 Nona (USSR/Russia), Cardom (Hatchet-Israel),
MO-120 RT-61 (France) and others will follow.

 

Among all directions of attack described above
the most threatening to Armenian security will present the LoC along the border
with Nakhijevan. Presently Azerbaijan has stationed over 20,000 troops and
hundreds of pieces of military hardware, including combat aircrafts and mobile
artillery units such as Russian made Smerch and Turkish made T-300 Kasirga, and
T-122 Sakarya multiple-launch rocket systems which are fully capable of
reaching Yerevan and other densely populated towns and villages in the Republic
of Armenia. The presence of such a large number of Azerbaijani-Turkish troops
and military hardware in Nakhijevan threatens Armenian transportation routs of
strategic significance such as the Yerevan-Stepanakert road artery and present
North-South highway connecting Armenia to Iran via Meghri border checkpoint.
The Azerbaijani contingent is also equipped with S-300 (Favorit) air defense
systems and combat aircrafts such as Su-24 (Fencer), Su-25 (Grach) and Mi-24
(Hind) helicopters.

 

Conclusion/Recommendations:

Considering the experience of Four Day War in
April of 2016, Armenian forces will most likely engage in all-perimeter defense
followed by a counter offensive on all its flanks. However, if they continue to
remain in the same positions as before a third round of an all-out war is
guaranteed to occur in another few years. Therefore, it will be only prudent
for the Armenian armed forces to carry out preemptive strikes against large
concentrations of Azerbaijani military personnel and hardware deep into the
enemy’s territory by devastating all Azerbaijani military installations between
the present LoC up to the Kur river in the direction of Azerbaijani Aran and
Ganja/Gazakh provinces before Azerbaijan launches its attack against the
republics of Armenia and Artsakh. Furthermore, taking out some strategic
installations in Azerbaijan, such as oil/gas drilling platforms, pipelines and
railroads leading to Turkey may be necessary to stop the war early.

 

In the meantime, a special attention needs to
be given to Nakhijevan direction where the most of the threat is coming from.
Specifically, all Azerbaijani military installations in Nakhijevan need to be
neutralized while its military contingent totally decimated and liquidated.
Furthermore, Armenian armed forces should enter Nakhijevan and liberate the
province from the Aliyev’s rule in Baku. Subsequently, its remaining residents
should be given Armenian residency and citizenship status, and offered the same
legal protections as all other ethnic minorities residing in Armenia. There are
other factors such as Russia, Turkey and the International Community
(US/EU/NATO/UN, etc.) and the actions of Armenian diaspora that weren’t taken
into consideration for this analysis to avoid a lengthy article. However, those
hefty factors cannot be excluded from the resolution of this conflict and their
influences upon the warring sides cannot be ignored.

 

Given past experiences, this new round of war
may not last longer than six months, if not fewer, considering the amount of
damage that can be inflicted by both sides against each other in a very short
period of time. In the meantime, additional steps need to be undertaken to end
the rule of a warmongering regime in Baku that will result in the toppling of
the Aliyev’s regime in Azerbaijan and the coming to power of a democratically
elected government that will find trading with Armenian states and peacefully
living with them side-by-side more beneficent than violent confrontation and
xenophobia sickening every layer of Azerbaijani society from kindergarten to
higher echelons of power. Aliyev’s regime has created false illusions of a
short and victorious war against Armenians that cannot ever happen. No amount
of black caviar, Oil or gas in Azerbaijan will be able to save Aliyev’s regime
from a prison cell somewhere in Baku or Apsheron Peninsula.





Sargsyan blasts Aliyev’s latest statement as ‘delirium’ at Munich Security Conference

Armenpress News Agency, Armenia
 Saturday


Sargsyan blasts Aliyev's latest statement as 'delirium' at Munich
Security Conference



YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 17, ARMENPRESS. Azerbaijan’s position regarding the
Nagorno Karabakh issue is a flagrant violation of the Helsinki spirit.
It is particularly evident in the recently-launched election campaign
in Azerbaijan, President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan said in remarks at
the Munich Security Conference during the In or Out – The Countries in
Between Russia and Europe Panel Discussion. The President noted how
his Azeri counterpart recently went as far as uttering territorial
claims for Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, calling it a historically
Azerbaijani territory.

“[It’s]nothing but delirium - which can have serious consequences if
Europe turns a blind eye to it.

The Nagorno Karabakh issue must be resolved as soon as possible, and
by peaceful means. This mission of ours is led by the Co-Chairs of the
OSCE Minsk Group, namely the Russian Federation, France, and the
United States of America.

The three principles of international law – non-use of force or threat
to use force, peoples’ equality and right to self-determination, and
territorial integrity – have been proposed by them as the cornerstones
of the peace process. The European Union in turn has reiterated on
numerous occasions that it supports the efforts and proposals of the
Co-Chairs. The efforts to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh issue can serve
as an example of how Russia, the EU, and the US can positively
coordinate their positions for the benefit of international peace and
security. We desire to see more frequent manifestations of such common
positions. It is especially important, since conflicts in all corners
of the world are increasing and expanding. We are concerned by the
sweeping changes taking place in the Middle East and elsewhere, which
are accompanied by never-ending wars. We are concerned by the state
failure and disintegration of a number of countries. We need to think
of cooperative, comprehensive, and indivisible security, so as to
effectively respond to those challenges. This is the only possible and
realistic way to overcome the current crises,” the President said.

Music: Winners announced for Serj Tankian’s $5,000 music challenge

Panorama, Armenia
Feb 17 2018

Serj Tankian and Creative Armenia unveiled the winners of the 7 Notes music challenge by Serj Tankian. Alpha Lighting System (Mexico) and Mariam Petrosian (Armenia) will share the $5,000 prize to the 7 Notes music challenge, the Creative Armenia NGO said in a press statement.

Alam Hernández, Joshua San Martín, Jaco Jácome, and JG Hernández are the minds behind Alpha Lighting System. In “life.exe,” the band takes us on a complex musical epic journey of progressive rock with some jazz influences. According to Tankian, "The most amazing progressive melody I've ever heard."

The second winner is Mariam Petrosian – an Armenian singer and songwriter. The graduate of the London College of Music presented the composition “Here I Come,” which is a powerful and resonant lyrical piece. "A consistently beautiful song that doesn't fade." This is how Serj Tankian feels about the song.

The winners were chosen by System of a Down bassist Shavo Odadjian; Capital Cities star Sebu Simonian; jazz phenom and composer Tigran Hamasyan; Honored Artist of the Republic of Armenia Vahagn Hayrapetyan; professor and Founding Dean of the UCLA Herb Alpert School of Music, Judith Smith; and the iconic rock star and challenger himself – Serj Tankian.

The winning songs, as well as 500 selected compositions from thousands of submissions can be heard at 7NotesExperiment.com.

Azerbaijani Press: ‘Grant Thornton is not registered to operate or operates in Nagorno-Karabakh’

AzerTac, Azerbaijan
Feb 10 2018
 
 
‘Grant Thornton is not registered to operate or operates in Nagorno-Karabakh’
 
AzerTAg.az
 

Baku, February 10, AZERTAC

“Grant Thornton is not registered to operate or operates in Nagorno-Karabakh,” the company said in its statement.

The statement reads: “Grant Thornton is not registered to operate or operates in Nagorno-Karabakh, does not have any license, permit or association, any office, legal or physical presence in Nagorno-Karabakh.

To provide further confirmation of our commitment and as reaffirmed in our letter to the Ministry of Industries along with various statements provided to the press, we once again reassure you that Grant Thornton respect the laws of Azerbaijan and therefore will continue to act with integrity, along with ensuring we conduct our professional responsibilities in accordance with the countries regulations both now and in the future, which include not working in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Is obliged to provide an annual declaration to Grant Thornton International Ltd (GTIL) which confirms that no legal or physical presence or operations are conducted in Nagorno-Karabakh. This undertaking has been received and forwarded to the Ministry of Industry, GTIL therefore continues to monitor this stringently, in order to ensure such commitments are complied with, along with supporting the local legislation.

Grant Thornton Azerbaijan is an independent firm having no legal, financial or any other type of relationship with Grant Thornton Armenia.

Grant Thornton International Ltd (GTIL) and each of its member firm; Azerbaijan, Armenia, and all the other 128 member firms, is a separate legal entity. GTIL does not own or manage any of its member firms and each member firm is responsible for the professional services that it delivers to its clients. GTIL, in its role as a coordinating entity sets the membership standards for the network, admits firms to the network and expels member firms from the network if they do not meet the membership standards.

Whilst Grant Thornton Armenia has no legal or physical presence, they have conducted a consolidated report from their offices in Armenia, without any physical presence in Nagorno-Karabakh for Arshahbank.

Likewise, in accordance with internal policies and procedures, there is a strict protocol which restricts legal, financial, physical or commercial presence in Nagorno-Karabakh. The adherence to such policies are carefully and regularly monitored by the senior management team of Grant Thornton in Azerbaijan.

Whilst the statement and ongoing commitment to abide by the regulations of Azerbaijan are clear, I personally want to reassure you that Grant Thornton Azerbaijan has and will continue to uphold its responsibility to the country.” 

Armenia bars Belarus from selling multiple rocket launchers to Azerbaijan

Category
Region

Armenia hasn’t allowed CSTO-member Belarus to sell Polonez multiple rocket launchers to Azerbaijan, Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper reported. Armenia and Belarus are both members of the CSTO – the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

“We wanted to sell Polonez [launchers] to Azerbaijan. But Armenia, our colleague in CSTO, opposed this. The deal didn’t take place”, Belarus military analyst Alexander Alesin said.

He also added that with most probability Belarus will begin selling non-lethal weapons to Armenia soon.

Bratislava: Danko: People from Central Slovakia Particularly Close to Armenians

Tasr (online), Slovakia

29 January 2018

Danko: People from Central Slovakia Particularly Close to Armenians

Danko: People from Central Slovakia Particularly Close to Armenians Banska Bystrica, January 29 (TASR) – People from central Slovakia with their values and feelings are particularly close to Armenians, said Slovak Parliamentary Chairman Andrej Danko (Slovak National Party/SNS), who on Monday took his Armenian counterpart Ara Babloyan to the Slovak National Uprising (SNP) memorial in Banska Bystrica to pay tribute to the victims of WWII.Danko said that he looks forward to visits to Poprad (Presov region), Kosice and Zilina, but he feels that central Slovakia was the best choice on this occasion, partly from the perspective of Christianity. He added that there's a need to take international politics to the regions.Danko took Babloyan to see the baroque Saint Francis Xavier Cathedral in the centre of Banska Bystrica and an Lutheran wooden church built without nails in Hronsek that is included on the UNESCO World Heritage List.Babloyan, who has held the post of Armenian National Assembly president for only six months, praised what he views as intense and fruitful cooperation even within such a short timespan.According to SNP Museum general director Stanislav Micev, despite the lack of detailed information on the individual nationalities of the 3,000 Soviets who took part in the Slovak uprising, it's certain that they included Armenians, as is commemorated on a memorial stone featuring 35 nationalities."There are certainly a few hundred [SNP combatants from Armenia] buried at a cemetery in Zvolen (Banska Bystrica region) and at Slavin cemetery [in Bratislava]," said Micev, adding that Armenians formed part of partisan groups and also fought in the ranks of the Red Army in Slovakia at the end of WWII.

“Football is more than just a game” – Arpine Hovhannisyan addresses issues of the global business in PACE

Category
Politics

Arpine Hovhannisyan, head of the Armenian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, has delivered a speech in the assembly on the issues of football.

Arpine Hovhannisyan delivered the speech on behalf of the EPP political group.

“This topic is indeed actual. It is no secret that the volume of financial resourced circulating in international football increases every year due to the yearly growing interest towards football. Moreover, new businessmen and organizations possessing huge financial means are investing in international football, aiming at increasing their own incomes in new markets for them”, Hovhannisyan said.

Hovhannisyan stressed that football is more than just a game or leisure option, it is a prospect business direction, which is proved by the growing volumes of broadcasts (as result, incomes of federations, leagues and clubs are increasing from the sales of broadcast licenses), the growth of participation and competition in various sports events between clubs, namely major clubs, growth of volumes of sales of club shirts and memorabilia.

“This list can go on very long. The commercialization of global football, naturally, can’t not impact the value of the transfer market and football stars. From the first sight it may seem that there is no negative occurrence that a new business direction has formed and is developing in the global economy. However, the commercialization of football is creating a huge financial hole between small and big clubs. It is enough to only mention that a big club can allow itself to pay 100 and more million Euros to acquire 1 player, when small clubs are unable to have 5% of the transfer budget of big clubs for updating their team for the entire year”, she said.

The MP mentioned that it is impossible to acquire famous players with small amounts of money, and small clubs have to deal with average level squads. According to her, until recently small clubs had the opportunity to benefit from various tools, such as joint rights for players, loaning, involvement of players from youth teams to the main teams and others.

“These measures aren’t only beneficial for small clubs, but also contribute to ensuring the employment of players, since they get the chance to play in small clubs and get more skilled, which leads to the increase of their transfer value. As result , these players are able to play in big clubs, while small clubs continue their activities. Nevertheless, the abovementioned Italian model was cancelled, which has negatively impacted small clubs. The other negative impact for small and medium clubs was the adoption of the new regulations of financial FAIR PLAY”, she said.

“If we limit certain opportunities, we must think about proposing alternatives to the small clubs. Otherwise we will have a situation when big clubs are monopolizing the market by pushing the smaller ones out of competition, which in turn will negatively impact players having new and average level”, she said.

Azerbaijani Press: Armenian provocation prevented at international exhibition

AzerNews, Azerbaijan
Jan 22 2018

By Rashid Shirinov

Another Armenian provocation on the international arena was prevented in the Spanish capital Madrid, where FITUR-2018 international tourist exhibition has been held.

Apparently, two agencies illegally operating in the Armenia-occupied territories of Azerbaijan, were registered from the Armenian side in the list of participating companies, Azertac reported.

The Azerbaijani Embassy in Spain immediately undertook a number of urgent measures. As a result of the practical measures taken, the provocative actions of the occupier country were suppressed, and the "agencies" were excluded from the list of exhibitors.

During the exhibition, the activity of Armenian participants was also closely monitored, and additional measures were taken to ensure that provocative information was not included in campaign materials offered to the exhibition participants.

Armenian Diaspora and lobbies often use international exhibitions to distort the essence of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and present this region of Azerbaijan as Armenian. However, Azerbaijan timely prevents such provocative attempts.

Armenia broke out a lengthy war against Azerbaijan by laying territorial claims on the country. Since a war in the early 1990s, Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding regions. More than 20,000 Azerbaijanis were killed and over 1 million were displaced as a result of the large-scale hostilities.

To this day, Armenia has not implemented four UN Security Council resolutions on withdrawal of its armed forces from the Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts.

As for Azerbaijan’s participation at FITUR-2018, the country was successfully represented at the event with the organizational support of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Azerbaijani Embassy in Spain. The pavilion of Azerbaijan caused great interest of the exhibition participants. Along with the tourist potential of the country, the pavilion promoted national wine brands and samples of confectionery.