Author: Paul Hambardsumian

[Armenian] political analysts have reacted to the meeting of [Armenian Prime Minister] Nikol Pashinyan and [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev in Davos [on 23 January]. Azerbaijan has renounced the "Madrid principles", an MP of the ruling My Step party, Hovhannes Igityan believes. Azerbaijan is trying to reinforce its own positions and the Armenian government have to show toughness and readiness for negotiations at the same time, political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan noted. The USA does not want the resumption of war in [Azerbaijan's breakaway] Nagorno-Karabakh because of the Iran problem, political analyst Suren Sargsyan said.

Kavkazsky Uzel wrote that the process of settlement of the Karabakh conflict is under way on the basis of the so-called "Madrid principles" put forward by the OSCE Minsk Group (MG) [that is mediating in the settlement of the conflict] in Madrid in 2007 and revised in 2009. Russia, the USA, and France are co-chairs of the OSCE MG. Azerbaijan accepts the "Madrid principles" with the reservation that Nagorno-Karabakh can only be part of Azerbaijan, admitting that it is possible to grant it broadest possible autonomy. Armenia also recognises the fundamentals of the "Madrid principles", but under reverse conditions.

The news conference "A new stage of conflict. Expectations" was held in the Article 3 journalist club in Yerevan on 5 February, Kavkazsky Uzel correspondent, who attended the event, reports.

The approach of the new Armenian government to the settlement of the Karabakh problem differs from that of the previous government, Hovhannes Igityan, an MP of the ruling My Step bloc and deputy chairman of the Parliament Commission for External Relations, said at a news conference.

"Previously, Armenia, unlike Azerbaijan, did not have a clear formula and clear-cut objectives at the negotiations. The Armenian government spoke about the need to resolve the conflict peacefully without offering anything concrete. And it turned out now that Azerbaijan is not ready to cede anything. Therefore, the new position of the Armenian government is interpreted in Azerbaijan as an attempt to quit the negotiations," Igityan noted.

He said that Azerbaijan essentially renounced the "Madrid principles" in 2016.

"The relevance of the 'Madrid principles' is discussed only in Armenia and in addition, only by journalists," the MP said.

Armenian government have to show toughness and readiness for negotiations at the same time

Azerbaijan is trying to change the logic of the negotiating process and reinforce its own positions, political analyst and Caucasus Institute Director Alexander Iskandaryan believes.

"Up to now, the situation has looked like this: Armenia was ready for compromises and concessions, but Azerbaijan blocked all proposals by the Minsk Group. Azerbaijan had the image of a non-constructive side that thwarted all initiatives of the co-chairs. Azerbaijan is now trying to change its own image and make Armenia reject all of its proposals. The decreased level of tensions on the border, which Armenia tried to achieve for a long time, is part of Azerbaijan's strategy," he said at the news conference.

He also said that the Armenian government have to make statements on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict at four levels at the same time.

"The statements are addressed to the domestic audience, Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan, and the world community. The government have to demonstrate toughness and readiness to continue negotiations," the political analyst explained.

He also noted that the "Madrid principles" had not yet ceased to be relevant.

"The proposals are part of the diplomatic language, in which the co-chairs speak with parties to the conflict. Their content is that some part of the territories is to be returned and other territories are not. It is a topic for discussion what territories and of what size. Paradigms like 'we do not return anything, but you recognise the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh' or Azerbaijan's position 'everything or nothing' are not discussed," the political analyst stressed.

It is too early to speak about progress at negotiations on Karabakh

The world community and the USA in particular have effectively vetoed the settlement of the conflict by using military force, expert in international issues and political analyst Suren Sargsyan said at the news conference.

"The position of the United States is as follows: You may resolve the problem as you like, but avoid war. You may resolve it on the basis of territorial integrity or the right to self-determination. Resumption of hostilities is extremely undesirable for the United States, as the USA is aspiring to resolve its own regional problems linked to Iran. They do not need any new hot spots near the Iranian border," he thinks.

The negotiating process has become active, but it is too early to speak about progress until the Minsk group organises a meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Sargsyan believes.

"Although Pashinyan and Aliyev have met three times, … [ellipsis as published] it is possible to speak only about negotiations between the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers within the frames of the Minsk Group. A familiarisation stage is under way. That is why the Armenian government is avoiding answering questions on whether the 'Madrid principles' have been removed from the agenda or not," the political analyst noted.

Despite the armistice, shooting on the line of contact [between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces in Karabakh] have not stopped even for 24 hours as evidenced by the infographics published on Kavkazsky Uzel – "Karabakh after the armistice – 365 days of war".