Baku, Azerbaijan, Apr. 10
Trend:
The number of efforts which are made by Armenia to strengthen relations with Israel has greatly increased recently.
In accordance with the Armenian government’s decision made in 2019, a diplomatic mission of Armenia is planned to be opened in Tel Aviv in the first half of 2020.
“The opening of an embassy in Tel Aviv will not benefit the region’s security in the future,” Ex-ambassador of Iran to Azerbaijan Mohsen Pakayeen told Trend.
"Therefore, Iran must delicately express its attitude to the opening of the Armenian embassy in Tel Aviv and carefully evaluate the possible negative impact of this event in the region," Pakayeen said.
Armenia maintains extensive trade and economic ties with Iran – 2.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas are annually exported through the Tabriz-Meghri pipeline.
Iranian political analyst Tavakkol Lotfi told Trend that the opening of the Armenian embassy in Tel Aviv may create problems in Armenia’s relations with both Iran and Arab countries.
"Armenia’s pro-Western policy may also be assessed as a factor disturbing Russia,” Lotfi added. “If Armenia continues to develop ties with the US and Israel, a number of problems will arise in relations with Russia."
A number of experts said that if Armenia loses Iran’s support, as well as the aid of the Armenians living in various countries which is delivered through this country, then Armenia may face even more economic and social problems. If Iran reconsiders relations with Armenia and makes adjustments, Armenia will face a deep crisis.
“By opening an embassy in Tel Aviv, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan wants to strengthen his position as a politician capable of managing Armenia and its foreign policy,” Iranian expert Elyas Vahedi said.
"Pashinyan, having no experience in governing the country, came to power with populist statements,” Vahedi added. “Up till now, he could not prove that he is worthy to rule Armenia, which for many years has faced incredible difficulties.”
“This casts doubt on the legitimacy of Pashinyan’s power,” Vahedi added. “Apparently, he thinks that by strengthening relations with Israel, he will demonstrate success, at least in diplomacy. But this, of course, will ruin relations with Iran."
Hossein Amir Abdollahian, special assistant to the speaker of the Iranian parliament for international affairs, severely criticized Armenia on March 15.
“Armenia’s intention to open a diplomatic mission in Tel Aviv is surprising and this step will negatively affect security in the region,” Abdollahian added.
It turns out that Iran is aware of Armenia’s two-faced and hypocritical policy, with which it traditionally maintains strategic relations. Geopolitical realities and political history testify to the fact that the relations with Iran have always been of strategic importance for Yerevan due to its isolation as a result of aggressive politics and geographical location in the region.
Therefore, Iran’s assistance is important from the point of view of the existence of Armenia as a state. Relations between the two countries since Armenia's independence have been developing well thanks to Iran’s good-neighborly policy. Armenia receives huge benefits from these relations, covering many spheres (including trade, energy, etc.).
From a geographical point of view, the neighborhood with Iran is a “happy ticket” for Armenia. After all, Armenia’s most influential patron – Russia does not border it directly. Relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan have been destroyed due to the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts by Armenia. Armenia’s ties with Georgia are also weak. That is, moving away from Iran, Armenia puts itself in a difficult position.
Of course, it is still difficult to talk about Russia's immediate reaction. However, it is obvious that Moscow will not want Yerevan’s rapprochement with Israel and the US, having left its zone of influence.
“The opening of the embassy is the contribution to the expansion of bilateral relations and protection of Armenia’s interests in the region,” Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan said.
Armenia, which occupied 20 percent of the Azerbaijani lands and carried out ethnic cleansing on these lands, thinks that the opening of an embassy in Israel will serve to the development of relations with this country and balance Azerbaijan’s political and economic superiority in the South Caucasus region.
Briefly, the Armenian political elite will approve Pashinyan’s this step in the short term while in the long term this will lead to Armenia’s strategic isolation.
“The uncertainty reigns in the foreign policy of aggressor country Armenia,” Azerbaijani MP Elman Nasirov said. “A country with a syndrome of uncertainty will sooner or later put itself into a dead end in the international politics and this is only a matter of time.”
“All the signs of such a situation are clearly visible in Armenia,” Nasirov said. “Therefore, trying to maneuver, Pashinyan’s government rushes in search of new “patrons” by turning away from old “friends”. So, the Armenian leadership is zealously trying to bring some warmth into the traditionally cold relations with Israel."
“Iran will never forgive Armenia for its treachery,” Azerbaijani political expert Bahruz Guliyev said. "If Armenia continues to make efforts to open an embassy in Tel Aviv, it will receive a powerful political and economic blow. So far, Armenia has only been warned. Otherwise, Iran will severely punish Armenia."
“Taking into account Iran’s assistance to Armenia, regional projects between the two countries, including economic and political ones, Armenia’s desire to get closer to Israel testifies again that Armenia easily sacrifices friends for the sake of its own interests,” Ilyas Huseynov, chief consultant of the internal policy analysis department of the Azerbaijani Social Research Center, political analyst, said.
Of course, Armenia’s intention to strengthen ties with Israel, that is, a state having serious political contradictions with its “vital” neighbor testifies to the cynical political hypocrisy.
Obviously, Armenia will fail to maintain the relations with its strategic partner – Iran and to develop the relations with Israel as an independent player.
Trend News Agency's political department