Author: Tadevosian Garnik

FRANCE READY TO SIGN DEFENCE DOCUMENT WITH AZERBAIJAN

news.az
Feb 17 2010
Azerbaijan

Flag of France France is ready to sign a defence cooperation document
with Azerbaijan, similar to one it signed recently with Armenia.

The French embassy in Baku issued a statement to this effect in
response to concerns at the technical understanding on defence
cooperation signed by the French and Armenian defence ministers in
Paris on 10 February.

The document signed with Armenia sets out topics for administrative
cooperation between the defence ministries of both countries. This
cooperation applies to concepts of defence and security and the
organization of the armed forces (democratic control over the
armed forces, the organization of the command, administration and
management of personnel, military education and language learning,
public relations, law, military history, tribunals and health). The
document clearly shows there will be no exchange of classified
information and material, the embassy said.

The statement stresses that France, as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk
Group mediators on the Karabakh conflict, "attaches importance to
the preservation of neutrality in its relations with Azerbaijan
and Armenia, and none of the items in this document questions this
neutrality".

"It is in this spirit of neutrality that France proposes signing
a similar document with Azerbaijan. The Azerbaijani government has
not yet formally responded to France’s proposal which remains on the
table," the statement said.

SAYYED NASRALLAH: NOTHING WILL BE SAFE IN ISRAEL FROM OUR ROCKETS IF YOU BOMB US
Mohamad Shmaysani

Details.aspx?id=124826&language=en
16/02/2010

In commemoration of the anniversary of the martyrdom of its leaders
Sheikh Ragheb Harb (Sheikh of the Resistance’s martyrs), Sayyed Abbas
Moussawi (Sayyed of the Resistance’s martyrs) and Hajj Imad Moghniyyeh
(Hezbollah top military commander), Hezbollah held a ceremony Tuesday
to mark the day of "loyalty to the Martyrs" and remember the sacrifices
of the Resistance martyrs and heroes.

The ceremony, held at the Sayyed As-Shouhadaa’ complex in Beirut’s
southern suburb, is attended by State Minister Adnan Sayyed Hussein
representing President Michel Sleiman and MP Ali Hasan Khalil
representing Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri as well as a representative
of the Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji and various political and
national forces.

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah delivered a speech
and paid tribute to the martyrs and their families.

"I condole the Muslim nation for the anniversary of Prophet Mohammed’s
(pbuh) death. I would like to condole the families of the crashed plane
(Ethiopian plane that crashed last month off Lebanon’s coast) who are
still waiting for the bodies of their loved ones to be recovered. On
the fifth anniversary of the martyrdom of former Prime Minister Rafiq
Hariri, I offer my condolences to his respected family and all our
brothers in the Mustaqbal (Future) Movement."

Sayyed Nasrallah determined the main characteristics of the leaders
of the resistance, particularly those who have made the ultimate
sacrifice.

"Modesty, love, sensibility are among other features, but I would
like to emphasize the youth factor. Those leaders, when they were
young, had sufficient awareness regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict,
Palestine, and the Aqsa."

The Hezbollah chief underlined the responsibility of preserving the
will of the leaders, that is to preserve their achievements "which
is the fruit of their lives, the fruit of their sacrifices. The
accomplishment they left us with is the resistance."

"This puts us in front of several questions and options. In Lebanon,
we always go back to square one whenever there are threats and we do
not make use of experiences…We always go back to the same questions;
the same questions of 1982, before it, and after it. Questions
like: Cane the US protect Lebanon? Can it really? Obama failed
to stop settlement building. Can international resolutions and the
international community protect Lebanon? Can this community that only
respects the strong protect Lebanon by being neutral? Can we persuade
Israel through the international community to return the Shebaa Farms
and the Palestinian refugees? We’ve read in today’s newspapers that
(Avigdor) Lieberman says: Those who think that any settlement can
make us return a meter of soil is mistaken. His deputy says: The
return of Palestinian refugees is a red line. I find it very weird,
brothers and sisters, that in Lebanon we even discuss self-evident
truths…Everything indicates that in facing invaders and occupiers,
survival is for the fittest. There is no place for the weak in these
equations and principles. Only the strong can fulfill their goals. Can
Lebanon be strong? Yes. We have proven that Lebanon was strong and
today Lebanon is much stronger than ever. Lebanon is strong by means
of the wonderful formula with which we face the many challenges:
The army, the people, and the resistance; a formula adopted by the
Lebanese government."

Sayyed Nasrallah said that the positions of the President, the House
Speaker, the Prime Minister, and the Army leadership clearly express
national unity in the face of Israeli threats to Lebanon. "We are
ready to discuss the notion of giving Israel pretexts to attack
Lebanon but what’s more serious is what we’ve been hearing lately
in Lebanon insinuating that the mere existence of the resistance
is enough reason for the enemy to wage war, and to prevent this,
the resistance should be eliminated. This is very dangerous because
it gives Israel every reason to attack Lebanon. Unfortunately, some
Lebanese are saying what the Israelis themselves are not saying. They
are holding the resistance responsible in advance for any Israeli
attack. Is this really a call for war? This is a justification that
some Lebanese are giving to Israel to wage war.

The Secretary General stressed Israel has been living a dilemma
since its failure in Lebanon during the 2006 war. "Israel has not
been able to impose peace or wage war. What’s been taking place
in Israel following the 2006 and Gaza wars is normal; the Israelis
have acknowledged failure and admitted that the resistance has grown
stronger. When Israel wants to go to war, it has to be conditional.

They should be able to accomplish a clear, decisive, and guaranteed
victory, not just victory as a possibility.

In Lebanon, Palestine and Syria, we are so strong that Israel cannot
wage war on us whenever it wants to. It is not enough for Israel
to have a strong possibility of victory because this entity cannot
tolerate another defeat. In Israel, there is a problem of recruiting
soldiers and many other problems related to self-confidence. I tell
the people in Israel that the Iron Dome issue is more science fiction
than reality. Some are still questioning its feasibility. Israel still
needs time to address its tactics and at the same time, its policy is
to stop the power of its enemies from growing. They are following three
measures: 1-Threatening with war; if you bring this kind of weapons
will do so and so…rest assure, we’ll bring them, that is if we
haven’t brought them already. 2- The security measures: Assassinating
Hajj Redwan (Imad Moghniyeh) and (Mohammed) Mabhouh among others. 3-
Sedition: What hindering the inter-Palestinian reconciliation is Israel
and any Arab who hinders this reconciliation is doing Israel a favor."

Sayyed Nasrallah said threat should be faced with courage. "When
Israel threatened Syria with war, the foreign minister, who is the top
diplomat, responded. This was intentional and not just a coincidence.

I am sure that Israel and Arab regimes were stunned when they heard
the Syrian response because it was clear and transparent. Two hours
after the response, everyone in Israel was denying threatening Syria.

This is an example. You remember (Ehud) Barak speaking about a swift
and decisive victory…But what we are hearing today is that any
Israeli war should have ‘modest objectives.’ Barak himself said the
following two months ago: ‘If you look at the Lebanese border you will
find everything is quiet, but if you raise your head a little more, you
will find tens of thousands of Hezbollah fighters ready for us.’ When
their tone began to fade out, they set the so called "Dahiyeh Theory."

This theory stipulates destroying Beirut’s southern suburb, although
the Israeli Air Force was incapable to achieve more than it had
achieved during the 2006 war. In August 2009, we told them that if
you hit Dahiyeh, we’ll hit Tel Aviv and that we long for war but we do
not want it. We have to know that the real concentration of Israelis
stretches from south of Haifa to south of Tel Aviv, at a 15-kilometer
deep line to the east. The bulk of residents are there, and so are
oil refineries and factories and practically everything. They might
think that they can destroy buildings in Dahiyeh and that we can only
damage a few of their buildings. If you destroy buildings in Dahiyeh,
we’ll demolish buildings in Tel Aviv."

Sayyed Nasrallah added that "when Israel found that there war=s nothing
that can demoralize the resistance, they went to threaten the Lebanese
government and people of destroying the infrastructure. Just as we
have infrastructure, there is infrastructure in occupied Palestine. We
have one airport and they have airports, we have a few electricity
stations and they have huge electricity stations, they have oil
refineries and we have a few. The Israeli infrastructure is much
more bigger than ours and therefore I tell them the following: If you
strike martyr Rafiq Hariri’s international airport in Beirut, we’ll
strike your Ben Gurion airport in Tel Aviv. If you hit our ports,
we will hit your ports. If you attack our refineries or factories,
we’ll bomb your refineries and factories.

Today, on this occasion, I announce and accept this challenge. As
people, army, and resistance, we are capable of protecting our country
and we do not need anyone in this world to do this for us. This is how
we face threats: with more threats, not with retreat, not with fear,
but with steadfastness and threats. We have never sought war but we
have the responsibility to defend our country and to stand firm on
our land."

On martyr Imad Moghniyeh’s assassination, the resistance leader said:
"In the last couple of years, we had lots of small opportunities to
avenge Hajj Redwan, but we did not go for them, because the one we
want to avenge is Imad Moghniyeh. Our enemy is anxious, let him stay
anxious. We will choose the time, the place and the target which we
want to be worthy of the martyrdom of Imad Moghniyeh."

"We are loyal to the path of our leaders and we tell our martyrs that
they can rest assure that their path will always be open and the cause
they sacrificed their lives for will be fulfilled. We are your sons
and your brothers and we will fulfill your dreams God willing."

TURKEY OPENS RESTAURANT FOR VULTURES .TURKEY OPENS RESTAURANT FOR VULTURES

National Geographic News Watch
ws/chiefeditor/2010/02/turkey-vulture-restaurant.h tml
Feb 16 2010

The first vulture restaurant has opened in Turkey, and already it is
acquiring customers.

The site selected for the restaurant is in Igdır, in view of Mount
Agrı, near the border with Armenia in Eastern Anatolia (see map
below). The area is home to four vulture species–the Egyptian,
bearded, griffon and black vultures.

"The area around the valleys of Aras and Arpacay is the best spot to
set up, for the first time in Turkey, vulture restaurants that have
been operative in many countries such as South Africa and Mexico for
years," said Cagan Å~^ekercioglu, KuzeyDoga Society president and
senior research biologist at Stanford University.

Å~^ekercioglu, a National Geographic grantee, has played a leading
role in establishing conservation areas for birds in Turkey and
other parts of the world. (Read the earlier blog post: Turkey’s First
Island Sanctuary for Birds Is Built From an Old Dirt Road and watch
the National Geographic Wild Chronicles video on Å~^ekercioglu’s
research on forest birds in Costa Rica forest, fragments and coffee
plantations.)

The new vulture restaurant in Turkey is "a safe place to feed the
scavenger birds with roadkill, butchershop remains, the carcasses
of farm animals that have died naturally–horses, donkeys, dogs–or
animals like wild boars that have been killed by local hunters,"
Å~^ekercioglu said in an email.

Bird-watching hides are to be built for local residents, tourists
and wildlife photographers to observe the vultures feeding on the
carcasses. In this way, the vulture restaurant will benefit both the
birds and the local economy, Å~^ekercioglu said.

The venture has the support of YaÅ~_ar TurkleÅ~_, the Ministry
of Environment and Forestry National Parks and Nature Protection
Directorate (DKMP) Wildlife Department Director, who visited the
vulture restaurant in the company of Cemal Akcan, DKMP Wildlife
Management Branch Director, and Taner Tazegun, Director of Igdır
Environment and Forestry Directorate. "The officials said that they
were pleased with the realization of such an initiative for Turkey’s
wildlife, and underlined that the required support would be made
available," Å~^ekercioglu said.

An agreement to establish Turkey’s first vulture restaurant was
signed by M. Kemal Yalınkılıc, Director General of the DKMP,
and by Å~^ekercioglu, on December 25, 2009.

Vultures are in a grave danger throughout the world, Å~^ekercioglu
said.

"Some of the medications used in veterinary medicine cause a kidney
collapse in the vultures that plunder the carcasses of the animals
on which the medications are used," he said.

Vulture populations have collapsed in India because of the use of
such drugs in cattle.

The carrion-eating birds have been on the decline in India due to
exposure to diclofenac, a common livestock drug, National Geographic
News reported in 2008. "A survey of vultures in northern and central
India has found the birds’ populations have plunged to near-extinction
levels–one species is down 99.9 percent since surveys began in the
1990s," National Geographic News reported. (Read the story: Many
Asian Vultures Close to Extinction, Survey Finds.)

The crash of the vulture populations in India has resulted in an
explosion in the number of feral dogs that feed off rotting carcasses.

The dogs in turn have caused a large number of human deaths through
the spread of rabies.

"Since we are apprehensive about suffering the same crisis in Turkey,
our vulture restaurant provides the vultures with a source of food
that is free of chemicals," Å~^ekercioglu said.

Animals are not hunted specifically for the new vulture restaurant,
Å~^ekercioglu said. "Wild boars are hunted by farmers to protect their
crops. We are working with them and the local environment and forestry
administration to pick up these carcasses for the vulture restaurant,
and provide lead-free copper bullets to the hunters in return."

Lead-poisoning is a major cause of the deaths of vultures such as the
California condor. "In fact, California has banned the use of lead shot
bullets in the range of the California condor," Å~^ekercioglu said.

(Read more about what exposure to lead does to vultures.)

"We are hoping to reduce the use of lead bullets in Turkey,"
Å~^ekercioglu added. "Our vulture restaurant is the first initiative
in Turkey to publicize and spread the use of non-lead bullets, as
well as the first initiative to publicize the problem of veterinary
drugs and limit their use to safe alternatives such as meloxicam."

Cagan Å~^ekercioglu (right) and Taner Tazegun, Igdir Director of
Environment and Forestry, the manager of the vulture restaurant.

EBRD PROGNOSES 2% ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 2010 IN ARMENIA

ARKA
Feb 16, 2010

YEREVAN, February 16. /ARKA/. Armenia expects 2% growth of economy by
the results of 2010 against the background of slow rates in transition
countries. It makes in average 3.3%, said Helena Schweiger, Specialist
of Armenian economy of European Bank of Reconstruction and Development.

"The indicator can be more or less. It depends on the situation
and whether the government will implement reforms", she said while
Transition Report Presentation.

Schweiger said that construction sphere will not go back to pre-crisis
times in the next two years.

EBRD expects growth of export and increase of demand of Armenian
goods in trade partner-countries.

"Agriculture was one of good functioning spheres and probably it will
remain the same", she said.

She also hoped that in future the government will implement reforms
which will assist in the increase of economy, particularly in
competitiveness.

According to approved state budget of Armenia, economic growth in
the country by the results of 2010 is planned by 1.2%.

AZERBAIJANI MP: MINKS GROUP CO-CHAIRS HAVE NO UNDERSTANDING OF ESSENCE OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT
Z. Ahmadov

Today
1684.html
Feb 15 2010
Azerbaijan

"The trio of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs do not want the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to be resolved," Azerbaijani Member of
Parliament Gultakin Hajibayli said.

"I am becoming more and more pessimistic about settlement of the
Karabakh conflict even in spite of all efforts made by Turkey to
address this issue based on Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. In
this regard, I would note tolerating attitude OSCE Minsk Group,"
the Azerbaijani MP said.

"I should also note that Russia has repeatedly provided military
support worth hundreds of billions of dollars to Armenia. The United
States, for just position of which we hope very much, provides
financial assistance to the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh directly
from its budget. Well, I will say nothing at all about France. What
to say about the state that has recognized the "Armenian genocide?"

"This suggests that the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group do
not want the Karabakh conflict to be resolved or does not understand
the essence of this conflict. Azerbaijan has not occupied a single
inch of the Armenian territory and therefore Azerbaijan’s limit of
concessions in the Karabakh negotiations has ended," the MP noted.

"Deoccupation of the Azerbaijani territories requires pressure of
world powers on Armenia. But we do not see this. On the contrary,
the countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group put pressure on Turkey
to open Armenian-Turkish border while Armenia feels very comfortable.

However, it should be noted that there are still forces in Armenia
that understand that this country has no future without good relations
with Azerbaijan and Turkey," the MP added.

"Of course, these forces are not in power, but openly declare that
Armenia’s leaders are leading the country to a standstill. Meanwhile,
Armenian authorities suppress any dissent. The recent statements
Sargsyan made in London prove my words. He almost stated that the
Armenian-Turkish rapprochement and progress in the Karabakh conflict
is far from accomplishment," the MP noted.

When asked what effect visit of U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Bill
Burns to Azerbaijan can have on relations between the two countries,
Hajibayli noted that "Azerbaijan and the U.S. are strategic allies
on many issues. Senior American officials have not visited Baku lately.

This may be due to the fact that the new U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan,
who is to organize such visits, had not yet been appointed.Â"

"The Karabakh issue will be discussed during Burns’ meetings in Baku.

We expect impartial attitude of the American side on this issue.

Though the U.S. is the only country in the world that provides
financial assistance to the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh on the state
level questions Washington’s just position in the Karabakh conflict
to a great decree," Hajibayli said.

"I think that the United States is interested in demonstrating
fair position in the Karabakh conflict, given the level of our
bilateral economic cooperation and investment of American companies
in Azerbaijan," she said.

TURKEY WILL HAVE TO RATIFY PROTOCOLS

PanARMENIAN.Net
15.02.2010 18:01 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Gagik Minasyan, a member of the Republican Party
of Armenia, said that RA President Serzh Sargsyan presented three
aspects of Armenia’s foreign policy in his address in Chatham House,
the Royal Institute of International Affairs.

"These are the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations,
Nagorno Karabakh talks and international recognition of the Armenian
Genocide. Armenia has registered progress in all three aspects," Mr.

Minasyan said during a joint news conference with ANC member Karapet
Rubinyan.

"The President made it clear that Karabakh conflict resolution should
base on three principles of the international law: the right of nations
to self-determination, territorial integrity and non-use of force,"
Mr. Minasyan said.

As to the Armenian-Turkish Protocols, he said Turkey will have
to ratify them. "Ratification failure will entail a new wave of
recognition of the Armenian Genocide," he said.

For his part, Karapet Rubinyan remarked that the Armenian President
said nothing new as regard the Karabakh conflict settlement. He also
emphasized that if Ankara doesn’t ratify the Protocols, the relations
between Armenia and Turkey will worsen. "It will set a precedent
that the Armenian authorities agreed to form of a joint commission
of historians on the Genocide issue," he said.

Mr. Minasyan, however, objected the opinion, saying that Armenian
Genocide can’t be a topic of discussion and Armenia will be consistent
for its international recognition.

EURASIA INSIGHT
KYRGYZSTAN: DARK DAYS FOR PERFORMING ARTS IN OSH

Usman Khakimov 2/11/10

Southern Kyrgyzstan is a region where residents experience plenty of
every-day drama, much of it rooted in a prevailing sense of financial
uncertainty. The preoccupation with economic issues is such that the
performing arts are an afterthought. Yet, one troupe of young Uzbek
thespians based in the southern capital of Osh is defying long odds
against them, filling a niche and finding a small audience.

The troupe is named Navnihol, which translates from Uzbek as Newest
Sprout. Now in its 11th year, it is the brainchild of Ravshan
Tursunov, who heads the Uzbek Language and Literature Department at
Osh State University. His mission is to both entertain and educate.

"Through our performances, we try to evoke interest and love for
literature and the arts. Also, in our plays, we touch upon vital
problems in our society like [challenges with] education and raising
children, including inter-ethnic relations, adolescent problems and
the consequences of drug addiction," said Tursunov.

"So far, we have staged over 10 plays and acts written by Uzbeks,
Kyrgyz, Armenians and others," he adds. Ethnic Uzbeks, numbering over
700,000, form the largest ethnic minority group in southern
Kyrgyzstan.

The troupe has participated in a number of drama festivals, and has
received critical acclaim, including praise from authorities in
neighboring Uzbekistan, a country that has had bouts of tension with
Kyrgyzstan over the past few years. In 2006, representing Kyrgyzstan
at the Nihol Theater Festival in the Uzbek capital of Tashkent,
Navnihol took second place among the 21 student drama troupes
competing.

Back at home, Navnihol mainly tours schools and other venues in
southern Kyrgyzstan. In 2004, the Kyrgyz Ministry of Education,
Science and Culture recognized the group’s popularity and
contributions, and granted the ensemble status as an official Folk
Theater.

"The [troupe] is making a great contribution to the development of
spiritual values as well as the ideological upbringing of our
students," says Zamir Bojonov, the Director of the Educational
Department at Osh State University. "In addition, Navnihol promotes
the image of our university across the whole region. We have students
from Uzbekistan, too, who study here at our university."

Navnihol actors say they love what they do, but they wonder if the
theater has a future in Central Asia. Interest in the performing arts
continues to fall off at an alarming rate, they report.

"It is sad, but I have to admit that very few people among my
relatives and friends care for the theater," says 21-year-old actress
Malokhat Batyrova. "People simply don’t want to go to the theater.
However, when we deliver our performances to primary and secondary
school students, certain interest in the dramatic arts arises. But
maybe our efforts are not enough."

Ganijon Kholmatov, former director of Osh’s Uzbek Drama Theater, said
that in the not too distant past, state-supported theater enjoyed
widespread popularity. "Uzbek dramatic arts in Kyrgyzstan were so
strong and in such great demand that you had to buy tickets in
advance. Nowadays, people do not want to go to the theater," Kholmatov
lamented. "People are struggling to feed their families. People will
want to enjoy performing arts when they enjoy prosperity and don’t
have to be worried about survival."

Economic conditions aren’t the only factor contributing to the decline
in attendance. Falling education standards are also playing a role,
some local observers contend. "Lack of interest in the drama arts has
emerged due to little interest in literature, which is, in turn, the
result of poor quality of education at Uzbek language primary and
secondary schools [in Kyrgyzstan]," Munojat Tashbaeva, an ethnic Uzbek
sociologist based in Osh told EurasiaNet.

"Secondly, now textbooks for Kyrgyzstan’s Uzbek language schools are
developed and printed here in Osh, not in Tashkent like in Soviet
times. This makes it impossible to trace and reflect new trends in
Uzbek dramatic arts," she adds.

Erkin Bainazarov, an Osh-based playwright, expressed concern that a
shift in social values, in particular a growing emphasis on
materialism, is negatively influencing aesthetic tastes.

"Even when the Uzbek Drama Theater has so-called open-door days [when
tickets are free], not many people come to the theater," said
Bainazarov. "The main reason is that people nowadays are more
interested in material rather than spiritual values. This is,
unfortunately, the current reality."

Despite giving such a gloomy assessment, Bainazarov said he remained
optimistic about the future of theater in Osh, and throughout Central
Asia. "I am still positive that the local dramatic arts will not
perish, and the old days when we had many theater lovers will return,"
he said.

Editor’s Note: Usman Khakimov is the pseudonym for a journalist in Kyrgyzstan.

THE BALL’S IN TURKEY’S COURT: THE BOSTON GLOBE

Tert.am
11:20 ~U 12.02.10

The protocols on normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia
were heralded as an historic breakthrough when they were announced
last April, but the deal is now on the brink of collapse unless the
parliaments of Turkey and Armenia ratify the agreement, reports The
Boston Globe.

Since the Protocols, when they were introduced, didn’t connect the
fate of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia-Turkey relations, Turkey’s Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan suffered withering criticism from not
only Azerbaijan, but also Turkey’s large Azeri minority.

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev also threatened to boycott the
Nabucco pipeline, which is designed to carry natural gas from Central
Asia via Turkey to markets in Europe. Within a month, Erdogan was in
Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, assuring his "Azeri brothers’~R that
Turkey "could open its border only if Armenia lifts its occupation
of Nagorno-Karabakh.’~R

The latest flap resulted from a finding by Armenia’s Constitutional
Court on Jan. 12. Clearing the way for ratification, the Court
affirmed that that the protocols conform to Article 11 of the Armenian
declaration of independence which states, "The Republic of Armenia
stands in support of the task of achieving international recognition
of the Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia.’~R

Turkish officials vehemently objected. They claimed that the Court’s
finding contained "preconditions and restrictive findings’~R that
undermine the "fundamental objectives’~R of the protocols. Citing
a sub-annex to the agreement calling for the establishment of a
commission for dialogue on historical issues, it is actually Turkey
that is trying to impose a pre-condition by insisting that the
commission consider whether the Armenian genocide actually occurred.

Both US and Russian diplomats insist that the deal was made without
preconditions.

This moment of opportunity must not be lost. The ball is in Turkey’s
court. Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan announced yesterday that
he would formally submit the protocols to the Armenian parliament
for ratification despite Turkey’s efforts to stonewall and distort
the deal.

Pushing for ratification won’t be easy for Erdogan, who wants to avoid
controversy in the run-up to elections.Even if Erdogan decides to
use his political capital, it might not be enough. In the past year,
Erdogan’s approval rating has slipped from 47 percent to 32 percent.

There should be no connection between opening the border and US
recognition of the genocide, but as a practical matter there is. If the
US Congress adopts the Armenian Genocide Recognition Act, which comes
up every year on April 24, Turkey would feel justified to abandon
the protocols. Erdogan might even derive some short-term political
benefit. Righteous indignation would appeal to the nationalist streak
in Turkey’s electorate.

Turkey and Armenia are on the verge of missing an unprecedented
opportunity for rapprochement. This would be a blow to both countries.

For Turkey, adopting the protocols affirms its "no conflict with
neighbours’~R policy and boosts its flagging EU candidacy. Opening
the border for normal travel and trade would end Armenia’s isolation
and be a windfall on both sides of the border.

The Obama administration must do its utmost to avoid a diplomatic
debacle, which would also set back US interests. Not only would a
breakdown tarnish America’s prestige, but ensuing events could
potentially disrupt US-Turkish relations at a time when the
United States needs Turkey to help stabilize Iraq, support NATO in
Afghanistan, and back diplomatic efforts to reign in Iran’s nuclear
program.

URGING TURKEY TO MOVE FORWARD

34B87-17B7-11DF-923A0003FF3452C2
Friday February 12, 2010

The protocols on the normalization of relations between Armenia and
Turkey, announced on August 31, 2009, and signed on October 10,
were supposed to lead to the end of the 16-year Turkish blockade
of Armenia. But under the protocols, they must be ratified by the
parliaments of the two sides before they are implemented. The Turkish
side is choosing to continue its blockade by holding up ratification.

If the administration of Armenia’s President Serge Sargsyan could
sign the protocols, it was because Turkey had agreed to exclude its
main demand or precondition for opening the border with Armenia: the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict to Azerbaijan’s satisfaction. But
the Turkish government still insists on that precondition. It says
that the Turkish parliament is unlikely to ratify the protocols until
the Karabakh conflict is resolved. The Turkish prime minister claims
that the parliament makes its own, independent judgment.

In an important speech this week before Chatham House in London,
President Sargsyan sought to lay the groundwork for the next stage of
the very public negotiations between Armenia and Turkey. He called on
Turkey to proceed with the ratification of the protocols but warned
that Armenia would "discontinue" the process if Turkey shows that
its goal is to "protract" the process.

"Senior Turkish officials repeatedly assert that their parliament is
politically independent and its decision is impossible to predict,"
Mr. Sargsyan said. Moreover, they seek the support of opposition
parties as well. But, he noted, his administration has been willing to
lose "a key ally in the ruling coalition" – the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation, which strongly opposes the terms of the protocols –
but has "persevered."

"I am confident that President Gul and Prime Minister Erdogan will,
subject to the demonstration of political will, find sufficient support
within their party, which holds the majority of seats in the Turkish
parliament," Mr. Sargsyan said.

He noted that Armenia’s Constitutional Court had acted promptly
to review the protocols and had ruled unanimously that they were
consistent with Armenia’s Constitution. He announced that he would
immediately submit the protocols to the National Assembly for
ratification. He added: "As the political leader of the political
majority of the Armenian parliament, I reiterate that I rule out
any possibility of the Armenian Parliament failing to ratify the
protocols in case Turkey ratifies the protocols without preconditions,
as agreed."

Thus Armenia is moving toward ratification, but will "discontinue"
the process if Turkey continues to drag its feet and show that
its intention is simply to create the pretense that a process of
normalization is underway.

President Sargsyan’s speech before an influential London audience was
a laudable step toward the resolution, one way or the other, of the
fate of the protocols. It was laudable because he chose a high-profile
forum and because he urged Turkey to act, while remaining firm in his
key positions: (1) that the resolution of the Karabakh conflict cannot
be a precondition for the normalization of relations; (2) that Turkey
must ratify before Armenia ratifies; and (3) that unless there is
prompt action, Armenia will withdraw unilaterally from the protocols.

We trust that his administration and its friends will echo this message
repeatedly in various other forums in the coming days. Before long,
if Turkey continues to "protract" the process, it may be too late to
simply talk about discontinuing it.

ARMENIAN EXPERTS SAYS SANCTIONS MAY AFFECT TIES WITH IRAN

Mediamax
Feb 9 2010
Armenia

Yerevan, 9 February: Armenian-Iranian economic cooperation may be
affected by the possible toughening of international sanctions against
Iran, professor Garnik Asatryan, head of the Iran studies department
at Yerevan State University, said in Yerevan today, Mediamax reports.

He said that this places under threat the construction of a rail
road between the two countries and the implementation of other large
projects.

Asatryan believes that Armenia needs to develop comprehensive
cooperation with Iran. "However, trade and construction of buildings
consist a large part of economic cooperation, and the spheres of
science, education and culture is the least developing part of
cooperation", Asatryan said.

He expressed confidence that Iran’s nuclear programme has a peaceful
nature and did not rule out the possibility of cooperation between
Armenia and Iran in the nuclear power sphere too.

Asatryan expressed regret that under pressure of pro-Azerbaijani
forces, the Iranian authorities made a decision at the end of 2009 on
the non-recognition of the diplomas granted by the Armenian higher
educational institutions in Iran. Meanwhile, Asatryan noted that
higher education received in Armenia is of higher quality than the
one received in Azerbaijan and Tajikistan, where Iranian students
have been heading for education in the recent years.

Asatryan also said that Iran is interested in both peaceful solution
to the Karabakh conflict and normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations. He noted that a free economic zone is currently being
formed outside Iran’s town of Julfa and official Tehran is interested
in attracting all countries of the region to cooperation in this zone.