Internal Discord in CSTO May Be Pushing Armenia to Leave Russia-Led Alliance

The Jamestown Foundation
Nov 29 2018
 
 
Internal Discord in CSTO May Be Pushing Armenia to Leave Russia-Led Alliance
 
Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 15 Issue: 168
 
By: Eduard Abrahamyan
 
09:41 PM
 
The issue of naming a new secretary general of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has become another bone of contention between supposed allies Armenia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The alliance’s heretofore formal head, General Yuri Khachaturov, a former chief of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces, was officially recalled from his post by Yerevan on November 2, due to his participation in a violent crackdown of opposition protests in Armenia back in 2008. The circumstances surrounding picking Khachaturov’s replacement have once again highlighted the profound disunity of Russia’s treaty allies (Lenta.ru, November 3).
 
Tensions mounted soon after the November 8 meeting, in Astana, Kazakhstan, of the CSTO Collective Security Council—the organization’s supreme decision-making body, represented by the heads of the six member countries. The objectives for the Astana meeting were to discuss inter alia security issues related to Afghanistan, the establishment of a coordination council for the standardization of military equipment, as well as the approval of institutional amendments that would permit the CSTO to offer “observer” and “partner” statuses to non-members (Astanatimes.com, November 10). In their final declaration, the CSTO leaders also formulated a collective response toward the United States’ professed intention to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty as well as expressed firm support for Russia’s activities in Syria (Odkb-csto.org, November 8). However, the sore point in the deliberation was the designation of a new secretary general, which sparked reciprocal criticism among the allies even as Russia largely remained silent on the issue.
 
Although Armenia had recalled its selection for CSTO secretary general (chosen by the previous government in Yerevan), it nevertheless insists that an Armenian representative must be allowed to hold the post until 2020, when General Khachaturov’s term would have ended. Kazakhstan and Belarus, however, disagree. Noting that the final decision is yet to be made at the forthcoming December 6 St. Petersburg summit, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev demanded that the rotational principle set forth in the CSTO regulations be upheld. Specifically, he advocated that Belarus should now be eligible to nominate its candidate for a new secretary general, as it is next, after Armenia, in alphabetical order. It would make little sense to install another candidate from Armenia, who would serve for only a year, Nazarbayev posited (TASS, November 8).
 
On November 12, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka met with the Azerbaijani ambassador to Minsk, in anticipation of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s coming trip to Belarus (which occurred on November 19). Reportedly, Lukashenka relayed to Azerbaijan’s envoy certain details of the closed-door discussions held during the recent CSTO Collective Security Council session and concluded that he has “three candidates for the secretary general role from Belarus.” This revelation triggered sharp censure from Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s interim prime minister. Pashinyan declared he “will demand clarifications [from Lukashenka] concerning the discussion of internal CSTO affairs with [non-member] Azerbaijan.” Pashinyan noted that the classified format of deliberations between treaty allies is an underlying principle in politico-military organizations, and he criticized Nazarbayev for backing Belarus (News.am, November 17).
 
The Belarusian foreign ministry rebuked the new Armenian head of government, declaring, “Perhaps, Pashinyan has not yet realized that the rules of so-called street democracy are not acceptable in big politics” (Tut.by, November 17). In turn, Pashinyan heatedly alluded to Lukashenka’s regime being a “dictatorship” and virtually accused Belarus of explicitly colluding with Azerbaijan against Armenia (Aravot.am, November 20).
 
Concurrently, Armenia’s acting Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan asserted that the premature recall of Armenia’s representative from the top CSTO post “does not mean that another Armenian official loses the legitimate right to occupy the vacant position” (TASS, November 16). Mnatsakanyan later added that the alliance’s normative regulations refer to member states rather than to individuals, and hence “Armenia is eager” to fill the vacant secretary general post with a “relevant candidate” (Mfa.am, November 20). This statement implies Yerevan may seek to apply its veto or even threaten to pull out of the CSTO altogether. Separately augmented by the increasingly ambivalent Russia-Belarus relationship (see EDM, October 23, 30), Armenia’s growing boldness to take firm positions regarding its national interests may escalate the inter-state frictions apparent within the Moscow-led regionalist structures.
 
Almost none of the CSTO members consented to Armenia’s new candidate for secretary general— conspicuously, including Russia. On one hand, Moscow’s stance may have been driven by a desire to “punish” Yerevan for the detention and prosecution of Yuri Khachaturov—who is loyal to Putin—as well as for Pashinyan’s bold rhetoric more generally. But on the other hand, Moscow may want to position Stanislav Zas, Belarus’s Security Council secretary, to take the reins of the CSTO as its secretary general (Kommersant, November 4). Some Belarusian experts believe that this would provide the Kremlin additional leverage over Minsk considering Zas’s (widely deemed Lukashenka’s “valuable asset”) consistent efforts to successfully impede Russia’s ability to boost its military presence and influence in Belarus (Top-center.org, November 15).
 
The fact that neutral Azerbaijan appears to exercise more influence within the CSTO than member Armenia highlights the systemic problems inside this organization. Moscow, with its regional military infrastructure and post-colonial attitudes, is the only factor uniting the alliance’s member states, which all have contrasting interests and values. As an institutional vehicle for legitimizing Russia’s self-declared zone of privileged influence over the post-Soviet space, the CSTO lacks both common values and a shared strategic vision to unite its members as well as ensure internal cohesion. The persistent crises amongst its members (see EDM, February 15, 2017; June 14, 2018; June 19, 2018) have come to epitomize the profound unsuitability of the CSTO as a regional stabilizing platform and have further degraded its international credibility.
 
The rhetoric coming from Armenia’s political elite suggests Yerevan is determined to turn the page on its post-Soviet political era, which heretofore had been marked by an oligarchic-leaning, corrupt autocracy and subservience vis-à-vis Russia. That domestic political shift in Armenia, combined with the unrelenting disputes inside the CSTO (as described above), are progressively turning the organization into a “pseudo-alliance” with only nominal commitments by its members to defend one another in the event of outside aggression. Russia’s more than $5 billion worth of lethal arms sales to Azerbaijan, to the detriment of its CSTO ally Armenia—along with similar actions by Belarus and Kazakhstan—certainly buttress this argument, especially from Yerevan’s point of view. Therefore, the eventual dissolution of the CSTO may be just a matter of time. In such a case, Armenia might find it reasonable to leave this club, though almost certainly while seeking to maintain its strategic bilateral link to Russia.
 

Entertainment: Kim Kardashian, Cher resolve to take a trip to Armenia together (video)

PanArmenian, Armenia
Nov 26 2018

PanARMENIAN.Net – Reality TV star Kim Kardashian and pop legend Cher have resolved to take a trip to Armenia together.

The two celebs who have Armenian roots met during a recent episode of the reality TV show "Keeping Up With the Kardashians".

It was talk of Armenia that bonded Kim and Cher.

"Everything you've done for the Armenian community has been amazing," Kardashian told Cher.

The two stars remembered their respective visits to Armenia and said they both wanted to go back. In fact, they resolved to take a trip to Armenia together in order to make a "presence" there as, according to Cher, bad things are happening.

Kim, her sister Khloe, husband Kanye West and daughter North visited Armenia in April 2015 to shed more light on the country and stress the need for the recognition of the Genocide.

Cher, meanwhile, spent three days in Armenia in May 1993. She was flown to the country under the auspices of the United Armenian Fund, a nonprofit relief organization, on a rickety DC-8 cargo plane. With her came 45 tons of medical supplies, books, printing equipment, candy and toys.

Verelq: Մի շահարկեք. PARA TV-ն պատասխանել է Թորոսյանի ու Հայրապետյանի քննադատություններին

  • 23.11.2018
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  • Հայաստան
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ՀՀ սփյուռքի նախարար Մխիթար Հայրապետյանը, իսկ քիչ ուշ նաև ՀՀ առողջապահության նախարար Արսեն Թորոսյանը, երեկ՝ նոյեմբերի 22-ին, իրենց ֆեյսբուքյան էջերում հաղորդագրություն են տարածել, թե իբր PARA TV-ում իրենց մասնակցությամբ հաղորդումները գրաքննության են ենթարկվել` քաղաքական նկատառումներից ելնելով, և այդ պատճառով եթեր չեն հեռարձակվել։


PARA TV-ն ահնդես է եկել պատասխան հաղորդագրությամբ, որում մասնավորապես ասվում է. “Տեղեկացնում ենք, որ այս հայտարարությունները հիմնված են բացառապես հարգարժան նախարարների երևակայության վրա և իրականության հետ չունեն որևէ աղերս։ Իրողությունն այն է, որ Արսեն Թորոսյանի հետ «Hard Talk» հեղինակային հաղորդումը ստացվել էր ձևաչափից դուրս, այսինքն՝ այն չէր համապատասխանում մեր հեռուստադիտողի ակնկալիքներին, որոնք ձևավորվել են նախորդ թողարկումների համատեքստում։ PARA TV-ում այս տեսակ որոշումները կայացնում է բացառապես պրոդյուսերը, ում հիմնական պարտականությունն է որակյալ եթերի ապահովումը, ինչն էլ իրավունք է տալիս չհեռարձակելու այն հաղորդումը, որը չի համապատասխանում որոշակի չափանիշների։


Ինչ վերաբերում է Մխիթար Հայրապետյանի, ինչպես նաև քաղաքական վերլուծաբան Մենուա Հարությունյանի մասնակցությամբ նույն հաղորդման թողարկումներին, որոնք նկարվել են հաջորդող երկու օրերի ընթացքում, ապա նշենք, որ դրանք դեռևս մոնտաժված չեն, և որևէ մեկը դեռ չի էլ դիտել, ուստի, առավել անհեթեթ են դրանց վերաբերյալ այն ենթադրությունները, թե իբր ինչ-որ մարդիկ չեն հավանել այն և արգելել են եթեր հեռարձակել։


Հարգարժան նախարարներ, կոչ ենք անում քաղաքական դիվիդենտներ չհավաքել՝ անհիմն կերպով անուններ շահարկելու և դրանք մեր հեռուստաալիքի հետ կապելու միջոցով։ Հորդորում ենք նաեւ դադարեցնել ճնշումը ԶԼՄ-ների վրա և չխոսել մեզ հետ սպառնալիքի լեզվով, ինչը վստահաբար չի բխում ձեր և ձեր քաղաքական թիմի շահերից”։

Music: Iveta Mukuchyan drops video for new single “Armenian Girls”

ESCXTRA.com
Nov 24 2018


Sports: Armenia taking on Liechtenstein in UEFA Nations League second leg

PanArmenian, Armenia
Nov 19 2018

PanARMENIAN.NetArmenia take on Liechtenstein in a UEFA Nations League match on Monday, November 19 .

The Armenians defeated Liechtenstein 2:1 in the first leg, but lost to Macedonia 2:0 and to Gibraltar 0:1.

On November 16, however, Chicago Fire’s forward Yura Movsisyan scored 4 times to help the Armenian side beat Gibraltar 6-2.

That leaves them 3 points behind Macedonia but with a better head to head.

World Bank working out new program for cooperation with Armenia’s government for next four years

ARKA, Armenia
Nov 1 2018

YEREVAN, November 1. /ARKA/. Sylvie Bossoutrot, Country Manager of the World Bank for Armenia, speaking Wednesday at a press conference in Yerevan, said the World Bank is now working out a new program for cooperation with Armenia’s government for the next four years.  

In her words, the World Bank hopes that in the process of the elaboration of the document the country will take a significant twist toward an export-oriented policy. 

She said a special emphasis will be put in the program on promoting competition and export, and the World Bank will choose areas with high prospects for development – agriculture, information technology and tourism.  

Bossoutrot said that the World Bank is already implementing 15 programs, one of which in the tourism sector. In her opinion, this is a quote promising project. 

She also said that steps are already being taken to increase investments in Armenia. She said that the predictability of the policy is being enhanced and the legal protection is being strengthened. 

In this context, the WB representative expressed hope that the law on direct foreign investments will be adopted very soon in Armenia. 

She pointed out the necessity of scanning all the areas for a more detailed presentation, to give information to investors for deciding where they want to invest their money. 

Armenia, which became the World Bank’s member in 1992 and the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) in 1993, has received $2.3 billion from them since then. –0—

Armenia MOD on buying American weapons: There is no need for it at this point

News.am, Armenia
Oct 28 2018
Armenia MOD on buying American weapons: There is no need for it at this point Armenia MOD on buying American weapons: There is no need for it at this point

17:14, 28.10.2018
                  

YEREVAN. – Acting Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan discussed security issues with US National Security Adviser John Bolton, who paid a visit to Armenia on Thursday.

Tonoyan told about the aforementioned to Armenian News-NEWS.am. He added, however, that military cooperation was not discussed.

Asked whether the chances of selling American weapons to Armenia were conferred on with Bolton, the minister said the arms market is an open market. “[But] we didn’t discuss a matter of buying American weapons,” he added.

And asked whether Armenia would purchase Americans weapons if it were made such an offer, Davit Tonoyan said there was no need for it at this point.

The minister noted that sending an Armenian humanitarian division to Syria also was talked about with John Bolton, and added that this division will be sent.

"We will have a disbanded parliament November 1" – Pashinyan says, steering toward snap polls

ArmenPress, Armenia
Oct 27 2018
"We will have a disbanded parliament November 1" – Pashinyan says, steering toward snap polls


YEREVAN, OCTOBER 27, ARMENPRESS. Acting Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan doesn’t rule out getting nominated in the second round of election of a prime minister also.

“On November 1 we will have a disbanded parliament, but we will see through what scenario”, Pashinyan told reporters today.

“Due to considerations to address the current economic situation and development strategy, as well as other political considerations, I don’t rule out that I will be nominated as candidate for prime minister,” Pashinyan said, adding that during the previous debates he didn’t manage to speak about everything he wanted to, namely about the economy.

On October 24, the Armenian parliament got one step closer to being disbanded as it voted down Nikol Pashinyan’s candidacy as a formality in the first round of electing a prime minister.

No one voted in favor, 1 MP voted against, and 11 lawmakers abstained.

53 votes are required to elect a prime minister.

The Yelk faction nominated incumbent acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s candidacy as a formality in a pre-arranged scenario of not being elected in order to trigger the process of dissolution of parliament.

Pashinyan tendered a technical resignation on October 16 in order to launch the process of calling early elections.

According to the Constitution, if a prime minister resigns lawmakers must elect a new PM within two weeks. If MPs fail to elect a PM during the first vote, a second round takes place a week later. If the second round also fails to elect a prime minister, the parliament is dissolved by virtue of law and the president calls early elections.

Prior to the vote, parliamentary factions must nominate candidates for the election. All factions agreed that they wouldn’t nominate anyone in order to pave way for dissolution. But the Yelk faction nominated incumbent Nikol Pashinyan in a technical maneuver because the Constitution says that a “vote” must take place.

Pashinyan took office after massive protests in April forced president-turned PM Serzh Sargsyan to resign. But Sargsyan’s Republican Party (HHK) still has most seats in parliament. Since taking office, PM Nikol Pashinyan has numerously said that the incumbent parliament doesn’t represent the people and that early elections should take place as soon as possible.

Below is an excerpt from Article 149 of the Constitution of Armenia onElection and Appointment of the Prime Minister:

“In case the Prime Minister submits a resignation or in other cases of the office of the Prime Minister becoming vacant, the factions of the National Assembly shall be entitled to nominate candidates for Prime Minister within a period of seven days after accepting the resignation of the Government. The National Assembly shall elect the Prime Minister by majority of votes of the total number of Deputies [Members of Parliament]. In case Prime Minister is not elected, a new election of Prime Minister shall be held seven days after voting, wherein the candidates for Prime Minister nominated by at least one third of the total number of Deputies shall be entitled to participate. In case Prime Minister is not elected by majority of votes of the total number of Deputies, the National Assembly shall be dissolved by virtue of law”.

Edited and translated by Stepan Kocharyan

Estonian, Armenian presidents discuss Yerevan’s reforms

Baltic News Service
Oct 12 2018


 Estonian, Armenian presidents discuss Yerevan's reforms


Tallinn, 11 October: Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid, who is
currently on a visit to Armenia, on Thursday [11 October] met with
Armenian President Armen Sarkissian [Sargsyan] and discussed the
Armenian reform process as well as increasing cooperation between the
two countries in the digital and tourism fields.

"The cooperation between our countries is good and has also increased
in recent years," Kaljulaid said after the meeting. "Armenia is
experiencing winds of change and we are following the reforms with
great interest and keeping our fingers crossed that the momentum does
not fade," the president said.

Topics discussed at the meeting of the two heads of state included
Armenia's reform processes and the fight against corruption. Kaljulaid
expressed hope that Armenia will continue strengthening relations with
the European Union, the basis for which was laid with the EU-Armenia
partnership agreement.

Cooperation between Estonia and Armenia in the digital field has been
close, foremost with Estonia's e-Governance Academy. The heads of
state also expressed hope for further close communication and exchange
of experience in this field. The presidents also discussed cooperation
in tourism and the possibility of increasing those contacts, while
security issues and developments in the region were also touched upon.

President Kersti Kaljulaid will be on a working visit to Armenia on
Thursday and Friday. During the visit, the president is scheduled to
meet with the president and prime minister of Armenia and participate
in the international Francophonie Summit in Yerevan where she will
give a speech at the plenary meeting. Estonia is an observer member of
the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie and the summit will
be attended by approximately 30 heads of state. The main aim of the
visit is to introduce Estonia's candidacy for a non-permanent seat on
the UN Security Council for 2020-21.

Sydney: Gladys Berejikilian calls for immigration cut – but it could cost NSW

 The Guardian(London)
 Wednesday 8:00 PM GMT


Gladys Berejikilian calls for immigration cut - but it could cost NSW

The New South Wales premier, herself the daughter of immigrants, wants
state's migrant intake halved

by Michael McGowan and Nick Evershed


Gladys Berejiklian has become the latest politician to weigh into
Australia's population debate, calling for a return to "Howard-era
immigration levels".

On Wednesday the New South Wales premier, herself the daughter of
Armenian immigrants, called for a halving of the state's migrant
intake, citing concerns about population growth in Sydney.

But a Guardian analysis of immigration data shows any reduction in
migration in Australia would involve hard and potentially costly
choices for the state's economy.

While permanent arrivals in Australia are at the same level as they
were under the Howard government, the increase in net overseas
migrants has been driven by the lucrative international student
market, tourists and skilled workers.

On Wednesday in an interview with the Daily Telegraph Berejiklian said
immigration in NSW had been allowed to "balloon out of control".

"It's time to tap the brakes and take a breather on immigration levels
to this state. We should return to Howard-era immigration levels in
NSW," she said.

"I'm the daughter of proud immigrants myself, but it's clear that
successive federal governments have allowed the rate of immigration to
NSW to balloon out of control."

But an analysis of migration figures by Guardian Australia shows that
while net overseas migration has grown in NSW, the bulk of the
increase has come from international students who inject billions of
dollars into the state's economy.

And permanent migration figures are on par with the end of the Howard
era - after almost doubling during his 11 years in power, a point the
prime minister, Scott Morrison, made on Wednesday.

"In the current planning year, NSW had requested more than 5000
additional migrants into NSW, well I'll take it from those comments by
Gladys that she would like now those assigned to states like South
Australia or other places, and we can do that," Morrison said on
Wednesday.

"But our current permanent immigration levels are running just a
little over 160,000 - that was the level of permanent immigration that
was running at the time of the conclusion of the Howard government,
and so those levels have been pretty consistent for some time, they
used to be a bit higher than that in terms of what the permanent
intake had been a few years ago and that's come down somewhat over the
last year or so and I expect it to sort of remain at about these
levels."

Similarly the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, suggested issues of
perceived overcrowding in Sydney related to infrastructure.

"What I would say to Gladys Berejiklian is we stand ready to work with
you to invest in the necessary infrastructure to ensure that this
great state of NSW has the right services and the right infrastructure
to support the population that it has," Frydenberg told reporters in
Sydney.

"The number of permanent visas have come down quite significantly, we
are a very proud migrant nation."

According to government statistics permanent migration to Australia
almost doubled during the Howard era, from 85,802 in 1996-97 to
161,217 in 2006-07. In 2016-17 the permanent migrant intake was
183,608, mostly via skilled visas.

But that figure was set to fall to about 160,000 in 2017-18 because of
changes to the visa migration program made by Peter Dutton in 2015.

In 2016-17 net overseas migration to NSW was 104,480, up from 73,570 in 2006-07.

But that growth has been driven in large part by the increased
reliance by universities on revenue from international students and by
tourists and skilled workers.

In 2016-17 those three categories accounted for 59% of temporary visa
holders in NSW. Since 2006-07 there has been a 92% increase in the
number of people in NSW on international student visas.

Universities Australia chief executive Catriona Jackson urged
policymakers "to tread carefully to ensure any policy change does not
damage Australia's successful international education sector which is
a major income-earner for our economy.

"International education is the second biggest export in NSW,
injecting $11.2bn into the NSW economy each year and supporting more
than 46,000 jobs. "It's a hugely important income earner - bigger than
tourism - and international students also make a huge cultural and
social contribution to the state and Australia."

In a statement Berejiklian confirmed that the government wanted to
halve net overseas migration, but her office did not specify where
they wanted to see the cuts come from.

The premier instead wants the level of migration to be considered at a
COAG meeting.

The comments come during a difficult period for the premier and the
Liberal government in NSW.

The week has been dominated by negative headlines and protests against
her support for a controversial advertisement for a horse race on the
Sydney Opera House, and recent polling suggests the Labor opposition
is now neck-and-neck with the government.

Berejiklian was critical of Labor leader Luke Foley earlier this year
after he used the term "white flight" to describe the shifting
demographics in western Sydney during an interview.

At the time she described the comments as "deeply divisive, dangerous
and nasty".

But on Wednesday Berejiklian said Sydney had been forced to "wear the
pain" of increased migration, blaming previous infrastructure spending
in Sydney for not keeping pace with population growth.

"My government has been playing catch-ups building the schools,
hospitals, roads and transport links our state needs to deal with our
growing population after years of do-nothing Labor governments," she
said.

"But it's becoming increasingly clear that the current growing rate of
immigration to our state needs to be ­addressed. This is an
opportunity for a new dawn on this important issue."

The Coalition has been in government in NSW since April 2011.