Author: Tania Jagharian

After making it clear that France will not be sitting on the sidelines as war ravages Caucasian countries, French-made armored vehicles have reportedly been delivered to Armenia instead of Ukraine, as initially intended. France is now home to Europe’s most prominent Armenian diaspora community.

Armenia’s bolstered defense ties with the West and India have come at a time when it is decoupling with Russia, which remains preoccupied with its invasion of Ukraine. Most recently, Yerevan decided against attending events of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) because it received no aid that it had requested during an Azerbaijani military incursion on its sovereign territory in May 2021.

The CSTO is a Russia-led inter-governmental security alliance of six post-Soviet states. The other members of CSTO, formed in 2002, are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

According to a French media outlet, “The first confirmed delivery (to Armenia) is of Bastion light armored vehicles manufactured by the equipment manufacturer Arquus. The Bastion can carry a battle group of eight soldiers, protecting against small arms fire and mines.”

The report indicated that France could also supply 50 VAB MK3 armored vehicles manufactured by Renault Trucks Defense. It provides armed forces with high-level protection and multi-mission capabilities.

Georgian authorities confirmed that France dispatched ACMAT Bastion armored personnel carriers to Armenia via the Port of Poti, also verified by APM Terminals Poti to RFE/RL’s Georgian service.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ayhan Hajizadeh, strongly criticized France’s supply of armored vehicles to Armenia. He expressed concern that this equipment transfer would bolster Armenia’s military strength.

The Bastion armored personnel carriers were initially intended to be supplied to Ukraine. But Kyiv rejected the 12.5-ton vehicles, contending they would be inadequately protected against artillery and anti-tank missiles. La Tribune had previously disclosed France’s plans to provide Kyiv with 20 Bastion vehicles in October 2022.

Following the declaration to bulwark Armenian defenses in October 2023, France has inked the deals for supplying Thales-manufactured Ground Master 200 (GM200) radars and signed a memorandum of understanding to deliver the Mistral short-range air defense system. According to France’s Ministry of the Armed Forces, a second contract was for Yerevan to acquire night vision goggles and equipment manufactured by Safran.

Speaking to reporters, French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said that Armenia would buy three Ground Master 200 (GM200) radar systems from the French defense group Thales without providing financial details. The system, already used in Ukraine, is known for its “remarkable detection capabilities,” Lecornu asserted at a press conference alongside Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan.

In the coming months, the French government will send a French military official to act as a defense consultant for the Armenian executive branch on issues such as armed forces training, Lecornu said. France will be training Armenian soldiers and helping Yerevan audit Armenia’s air defense to identify blind spots.

Armenia has almost doubled its defense investments over the last year. In 2022, the spending was around US$700 million to US$800 million; now, in 2024, it will be US$1.4 billion or US $1.5 billion.

Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict

The defense contracts with India alone account for a billion dollars. In the latest order, as reported by the EurAsian Times, Armenia contracted Zen Technologies for INR340 crore (US$41.5 million) for the anti-drone system that includes both training solutions and the system.

Armenia, a small landlocked nation nestled in the South Caucasus region of Eurasia, has emerged as a strategic partner for India. In 2022, when India inked the deal to supply Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRL), anti-tank munitions, and ammunition worth US$250 million to Armenia, it was seen as New Delhi taking a position in the conflict. It was the first export of PINAKA by India.

Armenia opted for Pinaka MBRLs, considered at par with the American HIMARs, for its shoot and scoot capability. The mobility is an advantage as adversary Azerbaijan has been deploying drones, including suicide drones.

For some time now, Yerevan has sought to diversify its arms imports and find new allies after Russia failed to provide the country with ordered weapons worth around US$400 million (it has not yet returned the money).

The failed arms deal was an additional trigger in the worsening Russia-Armenia relations, which made Armenia seek to diversify the sources of its arms imports, looking at the West and India.

The European Union has also discussed providing non-lethal military aid to Armenia. During its November 13 meeting, the EU Foreign Affairs Council deliberated on enhancing the EU monitoring mission by sending more observers and patrols to the Armenian border. The Council emphasized vigilance against destabilization in Armenia and warned Azerbaijan against compromising its territorial integrity.

Armenia stopped participating in CSTO events after the 2020 war when the CSTO said that Nagorno-Karabakh was not a sovereign part of Armenia and the organization had no mandate to deal with such issues.

The Armenian government has said, “Azerbaijani troops entered the sovereign territory of Armenia in May 2021. We turned to the CSTO for help and have not received it until now,” Secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan said on November 15.

• Ritu Sharma has been a journalist for over a decade, writing on defense, foreign affairs, and nuclear technology.

This November, the trustees of The New York Public Library voted to rename the Center for Research in the Humanities to the Vartan Gregorian Center for Research in the Humanities. The change recognizes the profound contribution of Vartan Gregorian, NYPL president between 1981–89, who is credited with restoring and revitalizing the Library—structurally, fiscally, and reputationally as an essential civic and educational center.

Born in 1934 in Tabriz, Iran to Armenian parents, he learned the value of reading and libraries in his youth. At age 11, he began working part-time as a page at the Armenian library. In his memoir, The Road to Home: My Life and Times, he recounted that the library “proved to be a great oasis of privacy, peace, and occasional solitude. I loved to read, and I read everything…the library opened up a new world.” 

In his 20s, he moved to the U.S. to attend Stanford, graduating with a degree in history and humanities and then completing his Ph.D. in history. After teaching stints at colleges in California and Texas, he moved east to join the faculty at the University of Pennsylvania where he would go on to become the dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, and provost. Had the trustees chosen him to become the next president of UPenn as he desired, the fate of NYPL may have been very different.

Passed over at UPenn, Dr. Gregorian instead took the top job at The New York Public Library in 1981. Along with other public services, NYPL had suffered wrenching budget cuts during the City’s fiscal crisis the preceding decade. The institution he arrived at was financially deprived, operating at a bare minimum, and with a dispirited staff and decaying facilities. 

Dr. Gregorian set about learning the ins and outs of the vast library ecosystem by talking to staff, visiting branches, and even putting in shifts answering phones at the information desk which he described to the New Yorker as “a terrifying experience.” With the trustees, he created a wishlist—facilities improvements, staffing, computerization, and more—and announced an ambitious $307 million capital fund campaign. 

Over the next five years, Dr. Gregorian used his charm, drive, and natural salesmanship to present a compelling case for the Library and attract the private and public support to not just meet but exceed the funding goal. In doing so, he created a model for the future—a coalition of politicians, business leaders, social figures, and scholars to act as allies and champions of the Library’s essentialness to the people of New York and to the city’s civic and intellectual life.

Under Gregorian’s leadership, branch and research library hours were expanded, the flagship 42nd street location was restored, air conditioning and humidity controls were added to the bookstacks, a large-scale computerization project was begun, the collections were strengthened with a focus on multilingual and multicultural materials, and education and literacy offerings increased. Importantly, he turned the Library into more than a depository of physical items, but into a premier host for cultural and literary events.

Speaking at NYPL in 2006 with author and historian (and 2023 Library Lion inductee) David Nasaw about the transformative philanthropy of Andrew Carneige toward public libraries in the early 1900s, Dr. Gregorian remarked:

“People are craving for immortality one way or another and there is no institution in my opinion on earth that can give immortality—earthly immortality, that is—other than a library…All the buildings change, the names change, it’s the library that keeps the memory, accomplishments of everybody.”

The New York Public Library’s renaming of the Center for Research in the Humanities to the Vartan Gregorian Center for Research in the Humanities is one way we hold the memory and legacy of his contribution and express our gratitude for not just rescuing and restoring our Library, but championing the value and importance of libraries everywhere.

https://www.nypl.org/blog/2023/11/17/nypl-honors-vartan-gregorian-renaming-center-research-humanities 

The region had been occupied by Armenian forces since 1991, during which it styled itself as a de facto independent state, the Republic of Artsakh,

Mr Hajiyev said, “Armenia’s illegal regime has now been disarmed and taken out from the territory of Azerbaijan. 

“This means that there are now no obstacles for a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

“We think that this is a historical opportunity to turn the chapter of animosity and hostility between two countries and to build sustainable peace based on the five fundamental principles that Azerbaijan suggested to Armenian side. 

“Then I think that Azerbaijan has also established model of resolution of one of the most prolonged conflicts on the wider map of Eurasia.” 

He continued “The OSCE has failed to resolve the conflict, although the Karabakh conflict has been one of the issues facing the OSCE since the very establishment of this institution.

“The Minsk Group has failed: the Minsk Group Co-Chairmanship Institute has failed because the mission of that institution was to maintain and continue the occupation of Armenia against Azerbaijan. 

“This chapter of the military occupation and injustice is now over.  Therefore, Azerbaijan’s agenda is now about peace and to normalise bilateral relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

“But any peace engagement requires two sides to play their role, and Armenia should also perform her role and demonstrate positivity and good will. We have already submitted to the Armenian side fifth revised version of the peace treaty, but it takes more than two months since they have not responded yet. 

“Now new realities have emerged in our region. These new realities are based on legality and legitimacy.”

He went on to discuss Azerbaijan’s intentions in its future relationship with Armenia. “We would like to build new regional security architecture in the region, based on the principles of justice, recognising one another’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and ceasing all territorial claims on one another. 

“Also, we support bilateral engagement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. I think that we should come to the conclusion of peace. And then I think that other partners can also support that agreement.” 

He emphasised, “First of all, peace lies and regional security lies not in Brussels, not in Paris, not in Washington, or Moscow or somewhere else. Peace lies in the region itself.”

Concerning the attitudes of the EU institutions towards Azerbaijan during the years of the so-called frozen conflict he referred to feelings of Azerbaijanophobia or Islamophobia, particularly in certain quarters of the European Parliament.

“That’s also not that helpful for the EU’s ambitions or interests in the regional resources,” Mr  Hajiyev said. “And also we have taken note of a recent unnecessary statement of the European Council putting unnecessary criticism against Azerbaijan… European institutions as such never were just with regard to Azerbaijan when Azerbaijan’s territories were under occupation.

“My question is, why? And for so many years, there was one attitude for separatist entities in Georgia, in Moldova, and in Ukraine, but there was some other attitude towards Azerbaijan.”

He then pointed out that “some EU member countries, like France, have started a militarisation program in Armenia. 

“First, we don’t think that any militarisation program is helpful. 

“Armenia doesn’t need a militarisation program. Armenia needs a peaceful program to prepare Armenian peace for its neighbouring countries. So I think that such militarisation programs are detrimental.” 

He referred to the fact that missile-capable military armed personnel carriers are being supplied by France to Armenia. 

It has also been reported that Armenia is to purchase “Mistral” short-range surface-to-air missiles and three radar systems from France.

“We have always advised the member states, such as France, first, don’t support separatism in Azerbaijan’s territories. Second, don’t send unnecessary messages of supporting revanchism in Armenia, and also stop presenting geopolitical unnecessary games in our region. Unfortunately, these are the facts.”

He then stated however, “We think that this is a historical opportunity and a historical momentum, and that appropriate European institutions should also be part of the solution, not the problem, to advance a peaceful agenda in the region of the social crisis.”

MOSCOW, Nov 15 (Reuters) – Russia said on Wednesday that Armenian Prime Minister's Nikol Pashinyan's decision to stay away from a summit of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) was the latest anti-Russian move by Armenia orchestrated by the West.

Relations between Russia and Armenia, which are formally allies, have soured in recent months, with Yerevan publicly questioning the value of its partnership with Russia and trying to deepen ties with the West.

The trigger was Azerbaijan retaking its breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh in September, prompting almost all of the territory's 120,000 ethnic Armenians to flee despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers.

Some Armenians blamed Russia for failing to stop what Baku called an anti-terrorist operation, an allegation that Moscow has rejected.

Russian Foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters that Russia saw Pashinyan's refusal to attend the CSTO summit as the latest in a "chain" of events.

"The West is obviously behind it. The West, whose plans in Ukraine have failed, is now gripping Armenia, trying to tear it away from Russia," she said.

Earlier on Wednesday, Armenian state news agency Armenpress cited Pashinyan as telling the country's parliament that the CSTO had repeatedly failed to protect Armenia's interests.

He said that Armenia was looking to diversify its security arrangements, but that it had not yet decided whether or not it would leave the CSTO.

For most of its post-Soviet history, Armenia has essentially had one partner in the field of defense and security: Russia. 

But recent experiences have shown that Moscow cannot be relied on for help when the chips are down. 

So now, despite the country's deep economic dependence on Russia, Armenia's leaders are looking elsewhere for security cooperation and finding eager partners. 

France steps in to boost Armenia's weak air defenses

On October 23 Yerevan signed an agreement with Paris on the purchase of three GM 200 anti-aircraft radar systems and a memorandum of understanding on the future delivery of Mistral short-range air defense systems.

Future cooperation will also include French training for Armenia's ground forces and support for Yerevan's military reform efforts. 

After the signing ceremony, Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan and his French counterpart Sébastien Lecornu spoke of the importance of helping Armenia protect its vulnerable airspace.

In the 2020 Second Karabakh War Armenia's air defense turned out to be woefully unprepared for the onslaught of Turkish and Israeli-made drones used by its adversary Azerbaijan. 

Those drones owned the skies and are widely acknowledged to be one of the decisive factors behind Armenia's defeat after 44 days of fighting. 

To address this weakness, Armenia decided to procure the three French-made radar systems, which have a range of 250 kilometers. 

Military analyst Leonid Nersisyan, who has closely monitored Armenia's arms purchases over the last 10 years, believes security cooperation with France was chosen for two reasons.

 "First, France's political leadership has on numerous occasions shown its sympathies towards Armenia, renderning diplomatic support to it in the conflict against Azerbaijan. Second, France is one of the few players in the arms market that makes practically all kinds of weapons," Nersisyan told Eurasianet. 

With the signing of the deal, France became the second country, after India, with which Armenia has intensified its defense contacts. Armenia's previous near-total dependence on Russia was recently acknowledged as a "strategic mistake" by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. 

 Armenia tends to be quiet about the details of its defense cooperation with India, neither confirming nor denying Indian media reports about major arms purchases. 

In contrast Yerevan shares some details of its deals with France that are usually not made public in such transactions, including precise numbers of units purchased, asin the case of the GM 200s. 

Away from Russia and toward the West

Russia has different feelings about Armenia's new military partners. It pays little mind to the  Indian weapons but flies into a jealous rage when arms are procured from NATO member France. 

The Russian authorities see in such deals an attempt to reduce its influence in the South Caucasus. 

As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently put it, "The Western countries now actively courting Armenia want to be friends with it against the Russian Federation." 

Armenia's growing proximity to the EU, in particular France, and growing distance from Russia are indeed related phenomena. 

The breaking point was the Azerbaijani army's incursions into Armenian territory in September 2022. Russia, and the Russian-led CSTO, which both have treaty obligations to protect Armenia from attack, rebuffed Yerevan's call for military assistance and instead took only the mildest of diplomatic steps in reaction.

Since then, relations have been in a steady decline, with Prime Minister Pashinyan recently remarking that Armenia has seen "no advantages" in hosting a Russian military base in the post-Soviet period (though he added there are no plans to attempt to remove it). 

 Not everyone supports the Armenian leadership's attempted pivot away from Russia. The country's established opposition groups warn that such a course contains risks for Armenia that Western countries can't help it mitigate. 

Tigran Abrahamyan, an MP from the I Have Honor faction, sees danger in recent statements by high-ranking Russian officials. 

"At the moment it is not clear what specific steps will be taken in what direction, but one gets the impression that at some point this [approach] will lead to serious consequences," Abrahamyan told Eurasianet. 

He also expressed doubt that the "collective West" would be willing to support Armenia in the face of the threats hanging over it. For this reason, the opposition MP believes that "ratcheting up tensions with Russia is an extremely incautious step." 

While Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says his country has no intention of leaving the CSTO and changing its foreign policy orientation, Armenia has reduced its participation in the Russian-led bloc to a bare minimum. Most recently, he informed Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko that he would not be attending the next CSTO summit in Minsk on November 23. 

"Armenia is practically not participating in the CSTO. We are not taking part in the meetings of the organization, we are not signing on to the documents they adopt, we have recalled our representative at the CSTO and not appointed a new one. We are effectively not members of this organization," a source close to Armenia's ruling elite told Eurasianet on condition of anonymity.

Some analysts say it is precisely the freeze in Armenia's participation in the CSTO that has opened up opportunities to buy weapons from NATO member France. 

"Earlier, Armenia was told privately that there could be no supplies of weapons from NATO countries because of the access Russia has to its defense sector as a member of the CSTO," military-political expert Armine Margaryan told Eurasianet. 

She added that if Armenia is to fully exit the CSTO, it has to have security alternatives in place and she views the fostering of defense cooperation with France and other NATO countries, like the U.S. in this context. 

France is not the only NATO country with which Armenia is fostering defense cooperation. In September, after a long break, Armenian and U.S. armed forces held joint drills in Armenia, to the Kremlin's chagrin. 

But despite Russian rumbles of dissatisfaction, Yerevan appears determined to stay on its current course. 

"Armenian-American cooperation, including in the military sphere, is continuing according to plan, on the same basis as before. This includes training, military, and technological support," the chairman of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces Edvard Asryan, told journalists on November 9, shortly after his return from Stuttgart, Germany, where he held talks with the European Command of the U.S. armed forces. 

During his meetings there, Asryan discussed details of the reforms conducted in the Armenian armed forces in areas such as combat readiness and the modernization of command systems, as well as the U.S.'s future involvement in this process.

This is a striking development, given that two years ago Armenia had been planning to reconfigure its military, freshly battered in the 2020 war, based on the Russian model and was discussing the details of corresponding reforms only with high-ranking representatives of the Russian General Staff. 

France's "signal" to other NATO countries

Now the taboo on security cooperation with NATO countries has been broken, and France seems determined to ensure the trend continues. 

"We are the first NATO country to have an open and confident cooperation in the field of defense with Armenia. And that's a signal to the regional environment, of course, but it's also a signal to our NATO partners," France's ambassador to Armenia, Olivier Decottignies said in an interview with CivilNet on November 2. 

"We wouldn't invest in cooperation in training, in cooperation between military academies if we didn't have a long-term perspective. On the other hand, Armenia's defense partnership cannot rely only on France."

The envoy went on: "We are the first partner among NATO countries for Armenia. But there are partners in the field of defense and the Armenian government is actively pursuing the diversification of their partnerships and we support that."

Jerusalem’s Old City, which has been deserted since the Gaza War, just had its most significant explosion of anger since the recent conflict erupted.

The Old City is no stranger to tension. It is arguably the main cauldron of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

What made Sunday’s eruption different was where it took place: a normally quiet car park in the Armenian Quarter, tucked away in the south-east corner of the Old City.

On the face of it, an increasingly heated quarrel in this corner of Jerusalem is about property development. But it cuts to the heart of the agony so many communities in Israel and Palestine have experienced in more than 100 years of conflict.

The current war, the Armenians say, has focused global attention on the unbearable violence in Israel on October 7 during Hamas' surprise attack, and the subsequent massive Israeli bombardment of Gaza.

That crisis, in turn, has empowered radical Israeli settlers to seize more Palestinian land and intimidate communities

Armed men with guard dogs descended on part of the car park right next to a private garden over which an Armenian flag stands tall.

Hagop Djernazian, a community leader, stood in the fray surrounded by Israeli police, lawyers, clergy and large crowds of agitated residents.

“I was at home. At three o’clock I got a message that a group or armed settlers had arrived,” he said, amid the furore.

“They have pepper spray. They kicked us out of the property. When the police came we went back in. The priests arrived as did our lawyer.”

Tensions had already been high before the arrival of the armed men. The car park in which they were prowling is the centre of a bitter and murky property battle, involving a private developer’s plan to build a hotel on the site, which makes up 25 per cent of the entire quarter.

The land was sold by the Armenian Patriarch with the involvement of a now-defrocked priest who was responsible for the Patriarchate’s vast property portfolio.

“The whole thing stinks,” Daniel Seidemann, an Israeli anti-settlement activist and lawyer, told The National.

“This patch of land is strategically located. In Camp David, [Prime Minister Ehud Barak] was willing to give Palestinians the Christian and Muslim Quarter, but only half of the Armenian Quarter. Israel wanted its road, one of the only vehicular routes in the Old City” Mr Seidemann added.

“I’ve said to my friends in the international community, ignore the legalities for now. There are hundreds of members of a community confronting armed people with dogs and weapons. It’s on the brink of an explosion. The last thing we need is an eruption of convulsive violence in Jerusalem. Sort out the legal issues later – make this go away.”

The Armenian community is indeed seething. They fear the deal might spell the end of their presence in the Old City.

Without a car park, the Quarter’s already dwindling numbers would not be able to keep its institutions going, turning the area from a centre of Armenian life into a museum, they say.

Garo Ghazarian, a high-profile US-Armenian attorney and part of a group of international lawyers who have banded together to prevent the deal, summed up the stakes at the end of a fact-finding mission in June:

“The Armenian Quarter is of national and international importance for all Armenian people all over the world,” he told a packed courtyard of residents and international journalists, flanked by peers from across the Armenian diaspora.

“It is of the highest historical value and wealth to the Armenian nation. It is an integral part in the identity of the Armenian people in general. It is living proof of the centuries-old history of our people. It is testament to our great civilisation in world history.”

On October 26, the Patriarch announced that he had a sent a cancellation letter to the developers, although no one from the community has seen it.

That same day, bulldozers turned up to the site and began knocking down walls, prompting members of the community to keep watch on regular intervals.

Although they were already on alert, Sunday was different. The arrival of anonymous armed men was a significant escalation.

Mr Djernazian beckoned in rage in the direction of one particular man, Danny Rothman, a figure at the heart of the property deal about whom very little is known.

Mr Rothman declined to comment on the reason behind his surprise arrival and the current status of the wider property deal.

Perhaps worst of all, many in the community feel betrayed by their religious leadership. Many believe the Patriarch was incompetent at best for signing away the property. Others believe corruption is the reason.

The breakdown in trust is dangerous for the tiny community.

Armenians in the Holy Land, numbering only a few thousand people, are mostly the descendants of victims of the Armenian Genocide, who scattered themselves throughout the Middle East to escape the Ottoman Empire's oppression in the early 20th century.

There is also a much older religious community, whose presence for centuries makes the Armenians one of the foremost Christian denominations in Jerusalem.

Now, those two parts of the community, co-religionists in one of Israel's worst crises, are bitterly divided.

There are, however, signs things might be improving.

Many priests joined the community in the car park on Sunday, not easy given their boss started the saga. A new bishop has just arrived from Armenia to deal with the institution’s property. A number of figures in the community told The National they hold him in high regard.

The Patriarch himself even turned up, according to a press release. “The community stood strong, with 200 members in unity to prevent the takeover and save the Armenian Quarter,” it read.

On Monday, quiet had returned to the car park. Mr Djernazian stood by the rubble kicked up by the bulldozers mere days previously.

“Jerusalem has been targeted for years, but it’s important to note that people are using the war in Gaza to target Armenians when they are most likely to be alone,” he said.

“We have had a presence here since the 4th century, so we will never give up. Losing this land would mean endangering not just the Armenian presence in Jerusalem but the Christian one, too.”

For months, Western mediators seemed satisfied to sponsor sham "peace talks" between Armenia and Azerbaijan—while on the ground, ethnic Armenians in the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh were being starved by an Azerbaijani blockade. In late September, Azerbaijan attacked and killed scores of people, beginning an ethnic cleansing in which essentially the entire population of more than 100,000 Armenians fled.

Since then, in a reflection of our benighted times, an even deadlier war has erupted in the Middle East, sparked by a bigger massacre. The world is riveted, just as for most of the past year it was occupied with Russia's assault on Ukraine. Azerbaijan's dictator, President Ilham Aliyev, is surely expecting to get away with his crimes.

As things stand, the United States and the European Union were essentially bystanders, indifferent or impotent, to one of the largest expulsions of a civilian population since World War II. This kind of impotence will have devastating effects next time the United States or the Europeans expect endangered people to place their faith in world institutions or Western power and ideals.

But there is still a way forward that salvages something from the situation.

As a foundation, Western nations should own up to the futility of appeasing a dictatorship and accept that allowing Azerbaijan to escape unchastised will encourage more crimes by bad-faith actors elsewhere.

As the stick, the West should put Azerbaijan on notice that the attack on and exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh are being investigated—which will mean visits by fact-finding teams lasting more than the few hours a United Nations mission devoted in September.

Following the precedents set in the trials of Serb warlords and ultranationalists in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, Azerbaijan will likely be found liable for the war crime of ethnic cleansing.

Even before the final attack in September, the blockade caused widespread malnutrition and school closures, endangered hospital patients and brought normal life to a halt in a region ethnic Armenians call Artsakh. The scarcity of wheat reached critical levels, forcing families to subsist on a single slice of bread per day. Baby formula was in such short supply that new-borns were forced to drink animal milk without proper sanitary treatment.

Several experts and organizations have declared this abomination a genocide attempt. The former chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno Ocampo, issued a report in August determining that Azerbaijan's actions qualify as genocide under Article II(c) of the Genocide Convention—and on Sept. 6 he warned in testimony to the U.S. Congress that state actors who are signatories to the pact, including the U.S., risk complicity by virtue of inaction.

Incredibly, there continues to be a peace process, although it is on life-support. In any new talks, mediators must assertively hold Azerbaijan accountable for its actions, and stand up for the rights of the people of Artsakh. And economic sanctions against Azerbaijan must be considered unless it agrees to end its outrageous behavior, including ongoing threats against Armenia.

A sustainable peace must be a just peace. It cannot be imposed through starvation and displacement. It cannot ignore what happened to more than 100,000 people while the world averted its gaze.

Western mediators would do well to set aside timidity before a despot and deploy the leverage they most certainly possess. That's because tomorrow's oppressors are not distracted by the Hamas war. They know that what happened in the South Caucasus is a far more classic case of the democratic world abandoning an ally for fear of upsetting a dictator and losing access to Azerbaijan's oil and gas resources. Don't let that lesson stand.

Karena Avedissian, Ph.D., is senior analyst at the Regional Center for Democracy and Security.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.