Lavrov A Erevan: La Securite En Transcaucasie Au Menu

LAVROV A EREVAN: LA SECURITE EN TRANSCAUCASIE AU MENU

RIA Novosti
17:34 | 01/ 10/ 2008
Russia

MOSCOU, 1er octobre – RIA Novosti. Lors d’une visite de travail a
Erevan, le 3 octobre prochain, le chef de la diplomatie russe Sergueï
Lavrov examinera avec son homologue armenien Edouard Nalbandian les
efforts entrepris par Erevan et Moscou pour assurer la securite en
Transcaucasie, a confie a RIA Novosti Andreï Nesterenko, porte-parole
du ministère russe des Affaires etrangères (MID).

"La cooperation tendant a garantir la securite et la stabilite en
Transcaucasie sera l’un des thèmes majeurs de la rencontre. Les
ministres examineront la situation qui s’est creee dans la region
après les demarches irresponsables et aventureuses du regime georgien
en place, demarches qui ont provoque des evenements dramatiques aux
frontières sud de la Russie. M. Lavrov fera connaître a M. Nalbandian
l’appreciation portee par la Russie sur la situation resultant de
l’agression georgienne contre l’Ossetie du Sud, et les mobiles qui
ont preside a la decision de Moscou de reconnaître l’independance de
l’Ossetie du Sud et de l’Abkhazie", a affirme M. Nesterenko.

Selon lui, la Russie espère poursuivre sa cooperation etroite avec
Erevan au sein de la Communaute des Etats independants (CEI) et de
l’Organisation du Traite de securite collective (OTSC), dont l’Armenie
assure actuellement la presidence, ainsi que dans le cadre de l’ONU,
du Conseil de l’Europe et de l’OSCE.

Les ministres evoqueront en outre les problèmes economiques qui
occupent actuellement le devant de la scène dans les relations
russo-armeniennes.

Il n’y a aucun doute que le règlement de la crise du Haut Karabakh
fera egalement l’objet des negociations.

"La Russie entend aider les parties en conflit a trouver une solution
mutuellement acceptable. Elle part du fait que les Armeniens et
les Azerbaïdjanais doivent chercher la formule du règlement tout
seuls. Moscou serait pret a soutenir une solution arrangeant toutes
les parties interessees et, en cas de compromis, a se porter garant
du règlement", a souligne le porte-parole du MID.

–Boundary_(ID_+qJvktDx/oK2v8kU5XsC7Q)–

Armenia Must Have The Future Of Crossroads

ARMENIA MUST HAVE THE FUTURE OF CROSSROADS
Lusine Petrosyan

A1+
[12:39 pm] 30 September, 2008

The President of NATO Parliamentary Assembly Mr. Jose Lello paid an
official visit to Armenia on September 17-18. Still several months ago
the Spokesman of Armenian Parliament Mr. Tigran Torosyan had invited
NATO PA President to make this tour. On quest’s arrival Mr. Torosyan
was already resigning from office, so the Deputy Spokesman of
Parliament as well as several ministers and the President of Republic
met with Mr. Lello.

Taking into account that relations with Euro-Atlantic structures under
the light of recent events in South Caucasus had become an important
discussion topic not only for authorities but also for Armenian people,
Mr. Lello found a short while to give this interview to our newspaper
before his departure.

-Dear PA President, as the time is short I’d like not to touch the
Russian-Georgia conflict and the EU-NATO involvement in it’s settlement
but rightly to turn to this conflict’s impact on South Caucasus region,
and on Armenia in particular.

– Well, the recent events in Georgia in some aspect created new
perspectives. In certain way I think it came with facilitating some
processes of stabilization in South Caucasus.

For example the case of Armenia – during of Georgian crisis the
Armenia’s economy sensibly suffered because of blockade. This has
stressed the geopolitical constraints to Armenia. But on the other
way identifying the fragility of situation on Georgia it for example
I think facilitated the visit of President Gul to Armenia.

Armenia that was really very fragile in its geopolitical posture
became in certain way potentially rather important in geostrategical
aspect. Armenia gained a real potential to be an alternative as a
crossroad between let’s say…

-Caspian Sea and Europe. – Exactly. I’d say not only Caspian Sea,
even Central Asia and Europe, because the pipelines now are coming
from Azerbaijan, but in future they’ll come from Kazakhstan.

So in certain way the situation unfolded in region during recent
events clarified some great possibilities for Armenia. And the paradox
is that this move creates, in my point of view, also a possibility
for another accommodation – let’s say to process of real negotiating
and regulating the relations with its neighbors. This, if happens in
future, can create a new security system for South Caucasus.

I think this system, if it’s possible, must be created on a base of
rational approach. The partners must have a rational attitude. There
are certain examples from the past how former enemies committed
themselves to rational approach to pursue common interest. Foreign
relations are not based on passion; they are not based, in most of
times, also on historical heritage or emotions. They are based on
interest – e.g. the Cyprus problem. Both parties the Greeks and the
Turks didn’t became partners with a great aim or great passion. They
realized that for their both interest it will be better to have
a settlement of problem and open the borders. Looking to Armenia –
forming relations and opening the boards is utmost important here. When
you see the cost of, for example oil barrel arriving to Armenia or
cost of exporting products from Armenia to foreign markets, surely
the high cost undermines their competitively. So I think the Armenian
people and Armenia authorities must look on perspectives emerging
from open borders with great pragmatism.

In this regard I think the football has been not only a game, but
became a catalyst for a new approach. I’m looking to the future with
optimism. A kind of regulation, a settlement of relations between
Armenia and Turkey I think will have an immediate impact on solution
of Nagorno-Karabakh problem. It’s important to create a base of
confidence measures, to reach a kind of official solution for the
entity of Nagorno-Karabakh and then both parties will have to look
to the future, to growth and prosperity. It is the best way. And the
history will go on to accommodate the rest during the history itself.

So briefly I think there is a possibility for stabilizing the
situation in South Caucasus and achieving a comprehensive cooperation
and progress here not on the base of "three minus one" approach but
on the base of "three equal to three" formula. None of three South
Caucasus nations must be excluded from regional projects leading to
3-1 situation, but the "3 must be equal to 3" and all the nations
must get involved into regional processes.

-In recent days so many configurations are being made with these
figures 3+2, 3+3. Turkey displayed an initiative, then Russia told
something, then Iran decided to get involved. Still I think the core
transformation that brought all these local "super-powers" into move
is the fact that EU and NATO entered South Caucasus, isn’t it?

– It’s sure. And here I’d like to specify that most of people identify
NATO with a military organization. Still nowadays NATO is essentially
a political organization. Of course the military branch is very
important. There is no capacity for negotiations without military
component, it’s a base for good starting for negotiations. But the
organization is profoundly a political one and its presence in South
Caucasus must not cause alarm to Russia or other neighbors.

In the case of Russia – we are living in partnership with
Russia. Russia has a lot of interest in Euro-Atlantic area and in
relation with this area. I may tell honestly, I can’t understand
very well this new approach of Russia to old fashion systems
of behavior. Their blitzkrieg on Georgian territory was totally
disproportioning to the situation aroused in South Ossetia. I’m not
going into detail about who started, who didn’t start, who made the
motivation? Russia was disproportionate.

Moreover I can’t understand why Russia recognized the independence
of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In fact they say that the Kosovo was
a precedent. Then while being against the Kosovo independence why
to create more strong precedents pretty close to their own borders,
especially beside those unrest sections inside their own territory
that may similarly get involved into the process. Is Russia going
to recognize Ingushetia? Are they recognizing Chechnya? So I think
they created a situation that doesn’t accord even to their own
interests, it looks more as if playing with fire. Russia is playing
with fire. Honestly I don’t understand Russians. And even now they
made a military agreement with Abkhazia and Ossetia. This is really
not a quite understandable jest or decision.

But anyway Russia in global world, as far as we are living in
today, has a lot of interests in EU. It had received a lot of
investments from European Union; the EU is a great customer of
its energy supplies. There are firm economic ties and interests in
fact. Nevertheless Russia has to understand that life is not only
energy, oil and gas.

– And weapon. – Well, in weapons I have my doubts.

– They equally use energy or weapon depending on advisability.

– Well, but concerning to effectiveness of weapon, even recently in
Georgia they had some setbacks. It’s not quite understandable how
many aircrafts there were been shut down during that period, you see.

Still anyhow looking to the future for a new security system in South
Caucasus the dialogue with neighbors is surely essential – with Russia,
with Turkey and with Iran. The policy of good neighboring is essential,
it’s fundamental. We can choice the friends; we can’t make any choice
on neighbors.

– Yes. Mr. Lello, I’d like to turn to theme of NATO and EU presence
in South Caucasus once more. Our authorities talk about integration
with EU but even opposition tries to escape from talks about joining
the NATO. Yet for many people in region it’s important to be sure that
EU and NATO will be here and stand with us until we become part of it.

– When we talk about integration with Europe and Euro-Atlantic
structures, namely the EU, NATO etc, we must always remember, that
more than physical and structure integration, joining to Europe
means joining to a model. Europe is a model of civilization, model of
democracy, model of tolerance, model of respect of human rights, model
of ideology. And this European model had spread all over the world
as a model of real democracy and a system of better co-existence of
nations. It’s a good example where countries with lots of differences
and bitter history like France and Germany or even Poland and Germany
came to peaceful coexistence and started to cooperate in interest of
their states and peoples.

So more than a structure, Europe is a model, an ideological model
and countries like Armenia follow this model. The countries choose
European model as a goal and hope for better future of growth and
development on a sustainable base, but also on a base where people
have capacity to decide for themselves about their future with terms
of tolerance and peaceful co-existence. So this is the model

NATO itself is already in Armenia, due to IPP (Individual
Partnership Plan) developed with your authorities. NATO supports
Armenia in modernization of your military system creating a better
interoperability, creating a better military doctrine, creating a
legislative system where the military are controlled by the parliament,
by political forces. So this is NATO not only as a system that is
changing with great reforms your defense and security environment,
but also as an ideological tool.

It’s a new way and tool. It’s a better insurance for peace. With NATO
adventures are not possible. With NATO any military action depends
on agreement of other allies, it depends on political parliamentary
control over the military decisions. This is the core of ideological
model. You can’t forget that Europe has been through history a stage
for battles, wars and disasters. And in the last more than sixty
years Europe is enjoying peace thanks to created ideological model
of co-existence and peace.

In this respect and considering the positive experience in peaceful
conflict settlements that Europe already possesses, I think NATO is
a framework, a basis, a common ground that may also contribute to
developing a dialogue between Armenia and it’s neighbors to solve
the problems. With different cards or different entrance capacities
but all the parties are members of same club. Therefore I’m looking
to situation with great optimism.

– I think many people would like to share your optimism, but
until Azerbaijan accuses Armenia for occupying it’s territories,
something that actually isn’t true (if intending to occupy Azerbaijan
territories why would the Armenians occupy Karabakh instead of
Kazakh region that would allow to control oil and gas pipelines or
Nakhijevan – establishing full communication with Middle East?), so
until Azerbaijan doesn’t stop to falsify and present the self-defense
of Nagorno-Karabakh as an occupation by Armenia, how the essence of
problem may be identified for further solution?

– Well, but let’s look to facts. In fact Armenia is occupying
Azerbaijan territory. Why? In order to create a connection between
Karabakh and your territory some lands outside Nagorno Karabakh were
occupied. So in case of full settlement there must be a withdrawal
from these territories, surely on the base that there will not be
any blockade from Armenia to Karabakh as well as from Azerbaijan
to Nakhijevan..

On the base of co-existence of course they will allow you to cross
their territories, you will allow them to cross your territory, the
trains will lead to Yerevan, Baku, Nakhijevan, etc. And there will
be totally different environment.

In Europe nowadays we don’t have any blockades; you can’t even
recognize the borders because everyone passes. Yet we are not loosing
our sovereignty or control over our territory, but we do this on base
of cooperation between powers, between police. We have even agreement
that police if pursuing some criminals they can go even inside the
other country. So this is a part of ideological system that has to be
exported to this part of world. So I think further steps must be taken.

-Still I can’t agree that Armenia and not the Nagorno Karabakh
had occupied any territories, but your belief into European type
post-conflict settlement truly inspires. And let’s in the end go
to another blocked frontier – between Armenia and Turkey. Surely I
must ask has NATO ever appreciated the Turkish policy of blockading
Armenia and why does NATO tolerates it?

– For us, we hope this situation is going to have a positive
evolution. We’d like to be more and more involved in this process. As
far as we have a good relationship with Armenia and good relationship
with Turkey – this is a faithful ally for long time – our aim is
to assist a certain settlement between the two countries in order
to overcome these constraints. I hope in near future we can assist
opening the frontiers to permit the flow of your goods through Turkish
highroads system because it’s more developed than the Iranian. The
Iranian system doesn’t have good infrastructure.

-Turkey is preferable simply because of exit to Mediterranean. For
millenniums there was Armenia Major. Today rightly or wrongly partly
it’s called Turkey, O.K. But when this Turkey blocks the reach of
Armenians to Mediterranean…

– I’ll tell you. The day when the frontiers will be opened you’ll
get the reach to wider world through Turkey. Those who criticize this
policy of improving the relations between two countries they must think
about the change. There will be a great revolution in your economy. The
day you have open borders your goods can flow without high cost…

-Perhaps, but there is a more profound problem – the Armenians to
stop perceiving Turks as enemy. I suppose the Turks know what they
have committed through history and still they keep on their hostile
policy – they close our borders, they damage our economy…

– Both sides are sleeping and living with history too long. We can’t
forget history. History is always a good example to avoid new dangers
in future. But anyway as I told in the beginning what is needed is
rational approach. Don’t forget the history. But look not only into
history of past but also into history of future.

And of course the opening of borders between Armenia and Turkey
is an issue that either NATO, either European Union are pursuing
now. Armenia can be a crossroad. And Armenia being a crossroad will
have prosperous future.

– Let the assumptions become true. And surely thanks for interview.

Ankara: Turk FM asks Germany, Britain to encourage Greeks re Cyprus

worldbulletin.net, Turkey

Turkish FM asks Germany, Britain to encourage Greeks for Cyprus talks

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ali Babacan had a trilateral meeting with
his Armenian counterpart and Azerbaijani counterpart in New York.

Saturday, 27 September 2008 10:18

The Turkish foreign minister had talks with British Secretary of State
for Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs David Miliband, and German Foreign
Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Babacan asked his counterparts to
encourage the Greek Cypriots for the settlement of Cyprus problem.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ali Babacan had a trilateral meeting with
his Armenian counterpart and Azerbaijani counterpart in New York on
Friday.

Babacan, Armenian Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian and Azerbaijani
Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov discussed possible steps that could
be taken in economy, culture, politics, energy, transportation,
infrastructural projects and communication.

In the meeting, the tree foreign ministers expressed their view that
solution of problems could bring a new momentum to the region.

Babacan is actually in New York for the 63rd session of the United
Nations (UN) General Assembly.

Babacan told Miliband that Turkey was not satisfied with the speed of
its European Union (EU) accession negotiations, and that Turkey’s goal
was full membership.

The Turkish foreign ministers also participated in the annual
coordination meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and
the meeting of Friends of Pakistan Group at the UN headquarters.

On Thursday, Babacan had talks with foreign ministers of Burundi,
Gabon, Tuvalu, Finland, Belgium, Hungary, Malta, Jordan and Tunisia.

Armenian President And Dutch PM Underscore High Level Of Political D

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT AND DUTCH PRIME MINISTER UNDERSCORE HIGH LEVEL OF POLITICAL DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES

ARMENPRESS
Sep 24, 2008

NEW YORK, SEPTEMBER 24, ARMENPRESS: Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan,
who is New York to participate in the 63d session of the UN General
Assembly, met today with the Prime Minister of Netherlands Jan Peter
Balkenende.

During the meeting the sides highly underscored the level of political
dialogue between Armenia and Netherlands and expressed interest
towards the further development of relations.

Serzh Sargsyan expresses gratitude to the Dutch government for the
technical support provided to Armenia and said that the economic
partnership has good prospects and work must be carried out in that
direction. Holland is the third among the EU countries with the
volume of trade turnover with Armenia, and Armenia is member of the
"Dutch Group" of the World Bank.

Armenian president thanked the Dutch prime minister for the balanced
position over the Nagorno Karabakh issue. He also informed Jan Peter
Balkenende about the visit of the Turkish president to Armenia. On
his part the Dutch prime minister greeted the dialogue between Armenia
and Turkey.

Referring to the discussions over Armenian Genocide issue in the
parliament of Netherlands, the prime minister said that "Of course
we are very well aware of the issue, it is important to be frank and
fair with the history."

The Dutch prime minister thanked Armenian president for the support
provided to the Dutch citizens during Georgian-Ossetian crisis,
thanks to which hundreds of Dutch citizens managed to return home
through the territory of Armenia.

Armenian president invited Dutch prime minister to visit Armenia,
saying that the visit will promote the further expansion of economic
cooperation and discussion of the prospects of partnership.

The president is also going to meet today with the Serbian President
Boris Tadic, Latvian President Valdis Zatlers. The president will
also have a conversation with the U.S. State Secretary Condoleezza
Rice. Tomorrow Serzh Sargsyan will deliver speech at the UN GA and
conduct other bilateral meetings.

"Enterprise-Incubator Foundation" And Armenian Economy Ministry Draw

"ENTERPRISE-INCUBATOR FOUNDATION" AND ARMENIAN ECONOMY MINISTRY DRAW OUT MACHINERY TO IMPLEMENT THE PROGRAMME "COMPUTER FOR EVERYBODY" IN ARMENIA

Manufacturing Business Technology
September 23, 2008 Tuesday
IL

"Enterprise-incubator foundation" [EIF] and Armenian Economy Ministry
are drawing out the machinery to implement the programme "Computer
for everybody" in Armenia, director of EIF Bagrat Engibaryan told
ArmInfo correspondent.

He also added machinery for selling computers on low price, a part
of which will be paid from the specially created foundation, will
be drawn out within the frames of the programme. Moreover, customers
may be consulted which computer to choose, Engibaryan said.

The "Computer for everybody" programme is being held all over the
world and Microsoft and Intel are taking part in it. The purpose of
the programme is sell high quality computers to the population on
a reasonable price for raising computer using skills and extending
excess to the world information via the Internet.

Friday Night US Round-Up: Kid Diamond Wins, Fireworks in Delaware

SecondsOut
20 SEPTEMBER 2008

USA Boxing News

Friday Night US Round-Up: Kid Diamond Wins, Fireworks in Delaware

In an excellent match up of world-class 140 pounders, former NABF
lightweight titlist Almazbek Raiymkulov, aka Kid Diamond, outpointed
former IBF lightweight champion Javier Jauregui over ten close
majority rounds at Buffalo Bill’s Star Arena in Primm, Nevada. Scores
read 97-93, 96-93 and 95-95.

Raiymkulov, 31, fighting out of Las Vegas by way of Kyrgyzstan, wins
for the second time in 2008, and raises his record to 27-1, 15
KOs. His only loss came via points to reigning unified lightweight
king Nate Campbell in 2005.

The 35-year-old Jauregui, also a former IBA and NABF beltholder in
addition to his world championship, has now lost two in a row, albeit
on points to world-class competition in the form of Anthony Peterson
and Kyrgyzstan. The Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico resident came into
the fight rated # 14 by the WBC at 135 lbs. His record now stands at
53-16-2, 36 KOs.

Also on the show:

Vanes Martirosyan, a 2004 US Olympian of Armenian birth, won a
unanimous ten-rounder over previously unbeaten Michael Medina on
scores of 100-90, 98-92 and 97-93. Martirosyan, 22, lives in Glendale,
CA, and bolts to 21-0, 13 KOs, while Monterrey, Mexico’s Medina, also
22, and a former WBC FECOMBOX 154 lbs. titlist, goes to 18-1-2, 14
KOs.

Undercard:

Lightweight Diego Magdaleno w tko 5 Jorge Ruiz
Junior Welterweight Anthony Lenk w ko 1 Jeremy Marts
Super Featherweight Sharif Bogere w pts 4 Alejandro Lopez
Junior Welterweight Khadaphi Proctor w pts 4 Javier Garcia
Bantamweight Leo Santa Cruz w pts 4 Adrian Aleman

####

In an exciting scrap at the PAL Center in Hockessin, Delaware, light
heavyweight Andre Hemphill survived a knockdown at the end of round
one to come back and TKO Richard Stewart at 2:22 of round three in the
main event scheduled for eight rounds.

The 28-year-old Hemphill from Philadelphia, PA by way of Woodbridge,
VA, went down from a Stewart barrage at the end of round one and was
reportedly `dead man walking’ as he headed back to his corner. Stewart
came out in round two looking to end matters with one punch and
despite winning the round, expending a lot of energy. The tide turned
in the following round as Hempill landed a solid left hook that hurt
Stewart ` leading to a knockdown. When action resumed, Stewart was
floored again by a straight right. He got to his feet, but the referee
waived it off at that point.

Hemphill is now 7-9-2, 4 KOs, while local favorite Stewart, 32, from
New Castle, Delaware, by way of Tennessee, falls to 14-7-2, 8 KOs.

Undercard:

Super Bantamweight Teon Kennedy w pts 6 Robert DaLuz
Light Heavyweight Chuck Mussachio d maj 8 Willis Lockett
Lightweight Anthony Flores w tko 6 Jason Rorie
Cruiserweight Pedro Martinez w pts 4 Otgonbayer Daivii
Featherweight Bryne Green w pts 4 Luis Esquilin
Junior Welterweight Oscar Vasquez w pts 4 Kywame Hill

(Friday, September 19, 2008)

German Businessmen Interested In Making Investments In Armenia

GERMAN BUSINESSMEN INTERESTED IN MAKING INVESTMENTS IN ARMENIA

armradio.am
17.09.2008 14:47

President Serzh Sargsyan received the delegation headed by the
President of the German Cronimet Company, Armenia’s Honorary Council
in Baden Wurttemberg Gunter Pilarsk.

The President appreciated the fact that every visit of the businessman
is accompanied by new programs. "We welcome any new undertaking. We
permanently support, encourage the investments, and our objective is
to create a legislative and executive environment that will be equally
beneficial for all investments," the leader of the country underlined.

Gunter Pilarsky thoroughly presented the current activity of
the copper-molybdenum plant of Zangezur, the development-targeted
investment programs, particularly the construction of a copper refining
plant in Kajaran. President Sargsyan welcomed the initiatives and
said that any modernization makes the work of the enterprise much more
productive for everyone: the working staff, the owner and the state.

Prioritizing the socio-economic development of marzes, Serzh Sargsyan
said such programs provide an opportunity to create new jobs and
solve certain social problems.

Noting that Armenia is a good field for investments, Gunter Pilarsky
said a number of German businessmen have arrived in Armenia, who are
currently negotiating with Armenian colleagues the opportunities of
investing into different spheres of economy.

Buildings Are Pulled Down In Frontier Villages

BUILDINGS ARE PULLED DOWN IN FRONTIER VILLAGES

A1+
[01:04 pm] 17 September, 2008

Over 360 children attended Barekamavan’s eight-year school in the
1980s. Today only 42 pupils go to the local secondary school. Most
doors in this frontier village became locked because of the ongoing
migration. Lately a house has been pulled down and sold as building
material.

Another two-storeyed private residential house has been put up for
sale as by the owners for 5000 USD. A resident from the neighbouring
village wanted to buy the house but then he gave up the idea because
of the lack of a hoisting crane in the neighbourhood.

Gagik Jhangirian Not Interested In Amnesty

GAGIK JHANGIRIAN NOT INTERESTED IN AMNESTY

Noyan Tapan

Se p 16, 2008

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 16, NOYAN TAPAN. The former prosecutor general of
Armenia Gagik Jhangirian is not interested in amnesty, as, according
to him, he and his friends neither committed a crime nor violated the
law. G, Jhangirian stated this during a briefing with reporters. "Those
who brought us here and put us in the dock have violated the law,
so from now on they should announce an amnesty for themselves and
then the amnesty should be granted to them," he said.

To recap, G. Jhangirian is charged with committing violence
(not dangerous for life or health) against a representative of
authorities. He was detained by law enforcers on February 23.

http://www.nt.am/news.php?shownews=117453

Whither Turkish-Armenian Relations?

WHITHER TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS?
Nicholas Birch in Istanbul

business new europe (subscpription)
248
Sept 16 2008
Germany

As symbolic gestures go, Turkish President Abdullah Gul’s attendance
at an Armenia-Turkey football match in Yerevan on September 6 could
not have been bettered.

The first visit by a senior Turkish politician since Armenia became
independent 17 years ago, it has sparked an upsurge of fraternal
feeling on both sides of a border closed since 1993. And the signs are
that there is more to come. If Armenia agrees to renounce territorial
claims on eastern Turkey implicit in its founding charter, one senior
Turkish diplomat says: "We could see diplomatic relations begun and
rail links restarted within six months."

"The two sides are in agreement over a surprising number of issues,"
agrees Richard Giragosian, a Yerevan-based analyst, describing
Armenia’s invitation of Gul as "a vital foreign policy victory"
for the Caucasian state’s embattled government. Armenia stands to
benefit enormously from the rapprochement. With its Azeri and Turkish
borders closed, Georgia has been its only window on the West. When
Russia wrecked Georgian infrastructure in August, it was Armenians,
not Georgians, who suffered from food shortages.

It is no coincidence either that the two Turkish provinces bordering
Armenia are the country’s poorest. For years, politicians in Kars and
Igdir have been calling for the border to be opened. Trade between
the two countries "would slow rapid population movement away from
eastern Turkey," says former Turkish ambassador to Russia, Volkan
Vural. "It would provide Central Asia-bound exporters with a good
new route. Plus energy security would be improved if Armenia joins
current energy projects."

Though Turkey has increasingly used its key position on the "East-West"
corridor connecting Europe to the Caspian as a card in its stumbling
EU negotiations, such optimism seems premature, for three reasons.

Reasons not to be cheerful

First, it ignores the fact that Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan
has been closed since the 1988-1994 armed conflict that took place
in the small ethnic enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in southwestern
Azerbaijan, between the predominantly ethnic Armenians and Azeri
forces. Azerbaijan showed considerable statesmanship in backing the
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. But there is no sign of progress on
Nagorno-Karabakh. Instead, enriched with oil and gas money, Baku now
spends $1bn annually on military rearmament. Belligerent rhetoric
about re-taking lost territories is, if anything, on the up.

Second, and much more importantly, Turkey’s talk of a new Caucasian
pact appears to ignore the key lesson of August’s conflict in South
Ossetia; in today’s Caucasus, Russia is boss. The August bust-up "was
clearly not about Ossetia, only a little about Georgia, only a little
about Nato, and a huge amount about geopolitics," says David Smith,
director of the Georgian Security Analysis Center in Tbilisi. "It was
a shot fired at the East-West corridor, a warning to BP, ExxonMobil,
anybody hoping to loosen Gazprom’s hold on Central Asia."

With Russian bombs falling within 200 metres of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC) oil pipeline, Georgia’s neighbours seem to have got the
message. Azerbaijan recently upped oil exports via Russian pipelines
when BTC flow was interrupted by a Turkish Kurdish separatist sabotage
attack on the pipeline on August 6. And when US Vice-President Dick
Cheney visited Baku on September 3 to drum up local support for a
trans-Caspian gas line, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev turned him down.

With the future of Nabucco, a hugely expensive EU-backed gas pipeline
due to bring Caspian gas direct to Europe by 2013, looking increasingly
doubtful, some analysts hint at the possibility of rerouting the
East-West corridor through Armenia. But this talk of Armenia offering
new energy security possibilities misses another point: Georgia
earned its position on the East-West corridor thanks to its staunch
pro-American stance; Armenia, meanwhile, to cite Richard Giragosian,
is little better than "a Russian garrison state."

Visitors to Yerevan have their passports stamped by Russian border
guards. Armenia’s energy and telecommunication sectors have been in
Russian hands since 2005 and 2006 respectively. Russian Railways bought
Armenian railways this January. In that context, Giragosian argues,
opening the Turkish-Armenian border risks abetting Russian efforts
to sideline Georgia. "The key question Turkey needs to ask itself
over Armenia," he says, "is do we have a partner on the other side."

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