ANKARA’S OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE PEACE IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Hurriyet Daily News
Oct 21 2009
Turkey
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Borut Grgic
Creating peace and stability in the South Caucasus has been an elusive
project, but a major breakthrough was achieved between Turkey and
Armenia on Oct. 10.
The foreign ministers of the two countries met in Switzerland, and
in the presence of the U.S. secretary of state and other European
foreign ministers, signed an agreement to open their border and
restore diplomatic relations. The deal still has to be approved by the
parliaments of both countries, but the act of signing the protocols
has sent shockwaves through the region.
The decision-makers in Baku, for one, have taken note of it.
Azerbaijan is the most energy-rich country in the South Caucasus.
Armenian troops, however, occupy more than 20 percent of the country’s
territory – the result of the 1993-94 war, in which Armenia and
Azerbaijan fought for control of the Nagorno-Karabakh province of
Azerbaijan. Today, Armenian troops not only occupy Nagorno-Karabakh,
but also the seven provinces surrounding it.
Supported by the U.S. and Turkey and focused on the energy developments
on its territory, Baku has preferred a diplomatic solution to a
military one. But the new Turkish-Armenian agreement has turned the
tables and now Azerbaijan finds itself under pressure. Any military
solution would clearly be a disaster for regional peace and stability,
but, feeling isolated, Baku may go for the jackpot.
International law is on Azerbaijan’s side – the principle of
territorial integrity guarantees state sovereignty – so the pretext
for going to war exists.
Having secured an opening with Turkey, thanks to the help of
the international community, it is now Yerevan’s turn to push for
peace and begin a phased-out withdrawal of its troops from the seven
occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku has already made
it clear that it is willing to open up the border with Armenia and
begin full cooperation in all areas, including energy and the economy,
if Yerevan puts into motion a policy of withdrawal.
By pulling its troops out of Azerbaijan, Armenia could finally
integrate itself into the South Caucasus infrastructure projects aimed
at connecting Europe to Central Asia through major energy, transport
and telecommunication lines. Yerevan should see an inherent interest
in being an equal partner in the east-west corridor and not just a
crossing point for trade moving between Turkey and Russia.
If Yerevan agrees to withdraw its troops, Europe should agree to take
on the security and administrative oversight of the Nagorno-Karabakh
region, supplemented by Russian and U.S. assistance. The area could
also receive European financial aid in addition to European know-how.
Having restored its relations with Armenia, Turkey is now the ideal
third-party mediator to move the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process
forward. This should be done in parallel to the already existing
Minsk Process, a format that keeps the U.S., Russia and Europe engaged
directly in shaping the security parameters of the South Caucasus.
This means the Ankara initiative should have a narrow focus with a
clear goal in mind: the withdrawal of Armenian troops from Azerbaijan
as a precondition for peace.