31 students of French University of Armenia to do Training in France

Armenpress

THIRTY-ONE STUDENTS OF FRENCH UNIVERSITY OF ARMENIA TO HAVE TRAINING COURSE
IN FRANCE
YEREVAN, MAY 11, ARMENPRESS: Thirty-one students of the French University
of Armenia are leaving on May 12 for French cities of Nice and Marseille
where they will be working for one month with local businesses entities to
improve their skills and gain new knowledge. The month-long training curse
is financed by French departments of Bouche du Rhone and Alpe Cote d’Azure.
French ambassador to Armenia, Henry Cuny, told a news conference
yesterday, the selected students are those who displayed the best academic
achievements last year. He said the selection was fair and transparent.
Mr. Cuny said the University will work to have all students of
theUniversity to have training courses in France.
Last year 10 students of the University had training course in France.
“Thanks to some of them some French companies managed to even establish
business ties with companies in Belarus,’ Mr. Cuny said.

ANKARA: Erdogan Speaks At A.K.P. Group Meeting In The Turkish

Turkish Press
May 11 2005

Erdogan Speaks At A.K.P. Group Meeting In The Turkish Parliament

ANKARA (AA) – Turkish Justice & Development Party (AKP) leader and
Premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated today (Tuesday) that his
visit to Moscow to mark the 60th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi
Germany was very fruitful. ”I met and talked with almost 50 heads of
state in Moscow. Some of the topics I discussed were the Armenian
problem and Cyprus,” told Erdogan.
Erdogan indicated that face to face meetings are very important
in overcoming international problems.
”During our administration’s past two and a half years, we have
witnessed that face to face discussions are essential in wiping out
disagreements and finding solutions to disputes,” commented Erdogan.

Erdogan stressed that, during his meetings in Moscow, he
reminded many global leaders that they have been misinformed by
Armenians. ”When we reminded the position of our government and the
Turkish opposition, many leaders understood Turkey’s stance better,”
expressed Erdogan. ”The leaders I met, now, know that Turkey’s
approach to the Armenian issue is a just one and must be supported
globally,” added Erdogan.
According to Erdogan, diplomacy is an area that requires
experience. ”The leaders of a state also have an obligation to relay
the concerns of their people to other leaders. This is what we have
done in Moscow…” mentioned Erdogan.

Ignorance is no defence: the Lynndie England case is an indictment o

Ignorance is no defence: the Lynndie England case is an indictment of America itself
By Ian Bell

Sunday Herald, UK
May 8 2005

LYNNDIE England is only 22. There is no evidence that she has ever
been over-burdened by intelligence or by a deep understanding of
grand, geo-political affairs. Nor has it yet been demonstrated that
she is a monster. England is a United States Army private, a “grunt”,
one of the reservists drawn from the ranks of the poor and unlettered
when America goes to war, when a young George W Bush, a youthful Dick
Cheney, or another of their class decides that military service is
a thing best avoided by smart and powerful people.

England is not smart. When briefly powerful, placed in charge of
prisoners at Iraq’s Abu Ghraib prison after the fall of Saddam,
she played a bit-part in acts of torture. Less smart than most,
unaware that sexual humiliation had become one of the tactics devised
by clever, important people who required designated enemies to be
softened up, England let herself be photographed with a chirpy smile
in the company of degraded Iraqi men. Sometimes, almost as a fashion
accessory, she had a snarling dog for company. Sometimes, one of the
imprisoned men was on the leash instead, naked and quivering. For
Lynndie, this was a bad career move.

Her guilt is not in doubt. The oldest clich茅 in jurisprudence holds,
after all, that ignorance is no excuse. Sophisticates in the fun world
of counter-insurgency might have known, as England perhaps did not,
that taking snaps of Muslim men being used as performing animals
is an established technique (British, as it happens). But she could
not possibly, in any version of reality, have imagined she was doing
something right, proper, decorous, justi fiable or patriotic.

Last week, for all that, and despite prolonged bargaining, an American
military judge – Colonel James Pohl, for the record – threw out
England’s plea of guilty. He held that contradictory statements were
before his court. Lynndie had said she knew the revolting photographs
were being taken for the “amusement” of fellow guards. Her co-accused
and former lover, Private Charles Graner, had meanwhile said the
images were intended as “a legitimate training aid”. Pohl said the
statements could not be reconciled, adding – he did not trouble logic
with this one – that “you can’t have a one-person conspiracy”. Also
last week the US army demoted Brig Gen Janis Karpinski, whose unit
was in charge of the prison compound.

Neither England nor Graner is off the hook. Opinion in the Arab world
demands that one or other, if not both of these stooges, should face
a penalty sooner or later. Besides, nobody in the Pentagon will worry
too much about a couple of privates as yet unable to say who issued
their orders in the first place. But what Pohl has said publicly,
utterly mendacious on every level, is that a guilty plea, even one
accompanied by photographs, cannot be accepted unless he, a serving
US officer answerable to Bush, can be convinced that England knew
she was doing something illegal.

It looks, on the smiling face of it, like an exemplary case of legal
principle. Here is a judge, apparently, who will declare a mistrial
over issues of intent and understanding: how fair can you be? But
there is a better question: how stupid does the Pentagon believe the
people of the world to be? Even Graner’s talk of a “training aid”
is absurd. Under both American and international law such supposed
aids, and the method of their procurement, would be illegal. Yet this
fabrication is used as an excuse to throw out a guilty plea? Franz
Kafka never managed that storyline.

Something worse is going on, if such a thing is imaginable. From whence
does the legal novelty spring that a crime is only a crime if the
accused understood the law? England and her chums inflicted pain and
humiliation on prisoners: the camera, this time, did not lie. But she
had to know “at the time that what she was doing was illegal” in order
for her guilty plea to stand? The nonsense might not be of much use,
ultimately, to the dim-witted private, but it could yet prove handy
for certain others. Did I just hear Donald Rumsfeld release a long,
self-satisfied note of relief?

It was America’s defence secretary, after all, who authorised
so-called “category two” (and, unofficially, “category three”)
interrogation techniques for the treatment of the enemies of freedom
after discussions, doubtless philosophical, with Paul Wolfowitz,
General Richard Myers, and under-secretary Douglas Feith.

First, Rummy gave the boys permission for “cat 2”: the use of dogs,
forcible shaving, “stress positions”, the confiscation of the Koran
and the denial of hot food. Then the secretary put his department’s
lawyers to work on the proposition that torture, for the US, is “a
method of self-defence”, with sleep-deprivation the favoured option.
For “a few” prisoners, moreover, “the submarine” – partial drowning,
repeated as required – might be in order. For the sake of these
innovations, the US Army had to rewrite its own field manual.

You can see why England might be in doubt as to the legality of her
behaviour. You can see, too, why the American government might have
hired a few more lawyers in recent years to quibble over the Geneva
conventions. On Thursday, as Britain’s own war criminal was facing
a bamboozled electorate, some people marked international Holocaust
Day. The long tradition of stupid, venal and cruel people “only
following orders” was brought to our attention once again.

Judge Pohl, for one, might like to remind himself that those who
turned six million Jews to ash and boiled fat did not know they
were doing anything actually illegal: under the Nazi legal code,
they committed no crime. The ancestors of the Kurds we have just
liberated from Saddam Hussein and his chemical weapons did not
believe they were wrong, 90 years back, when they were raping and
slaughtering Armenian prisoners of the Turks. Sixty years may have
passed since the final liberation of Europe, but this nightmare goes
on. Stupid young people are still committing crimes against humanity,
and cynical regimes are still attempting to evade responsibility.

On paper, the refusal of the Bush administration to have any truck
with the international criminal court makes perfect Republican sense.
The utopian US constitution becomes unworkable, after all, if ever
it acknowledges a higher authority. In a practical sense, equally,
America would be bedevilled by vexatious litigation from enemies and
rivals if it stooped to recognise such a court. For example: Iran
might want to know why the US should possess upwards of 5000 nuclear
warheads, claim the right to kill Muslims without the authority of
the United Nations, and yet cast a sovereign nation as a pariah.

BUT take your mind back to Lynndie England. This was not one bad
apple in a superpower’s very large barrel. This was not simply the
result of a malfunctioning command and control structure. This was
the result, pathetic yet revealing, of a nation that chose to cast off
the restraints of international law and used the events of 9/11 as an
excuse. Rumsfeld and his boss sanctioned little Lynndie’s triumphalist
barbarism. They turned a dim-witted kid into a concentration camp
guard while a British prime minister performed as the warm-up act.

Why do people “only follow orders”? If I knew, I would tell you. It is
obvious enough, for all that, that those to whom power has been granted
pick on the unlettered, the ill-read, and the blindly patriotic. When
things go wrong they can generally find a judge – or sometimes an
attorney general – to make the bad news go away. What they cannot do
is to cure themselves of the habit of torture and deceit. Why change
a winning formula?

The worst of all these thoughts is that Lynndie England was only
doing her best, in the best way she knew, for her country. Certain
of the Waffen SS thought as much, with fanatical sincerity, 60 years
ago. Didn’t Iraq bring down the Twin Towers? Didn’t it possess more
terrible weapons? Didn’t this mean that a freedom-loving country had
to use whatever means available to protect decent, honourable and
freedom-loving people such as Lynndie?

No, and no, and no. History, for now, begins to feel like the dream
from which we cannot awaken. It does not contain much in the way of
lessons. It does say, in Hebrew, in Iraqi, in Armenian, in Cambodian,
and in the common speech of the American mid-west, that “only following
orders” is the way of the slave, the barbarian, and the fool.

–Boundary_(ID_DqwzcG1utBSYMS6BZ/jarg)–

We’d rather not hear about world’s genocides

We’d rather not hear about world’s genocides
By Brian Lewis

News-Leader.com, MO
May 7 2005

I drove to the synagogue Thursday. I listened to the radio news on
the way.

I heard an interview with a Holocaust survivor and the veteran who
helped liberate the death camp he was in.

A report followed about the Bush administration’s actions regarding
Sudan and the genocide in Darfur.

A fitting juxtaposition. So many similarities.

Although from where I sit, it’s hard work to think much about Darfur
and the genocide in the Sudan.

I’m well-informed. I read newspapers. I watch television news. I
scour Internet news sources and blogs. But I can’t explain much to
you about the mass killings of black Muslims, Christians and animists
in southern Sudan by a militant Arab Muslim regime.

I did find an article from a recent Christianity Today about Terri
Schiavo headlined “Questions for Both Sides.” One question: “Why did
the single case of Terri Schiavo get so much front-page coverage,
and the more than 10,000 per month dying in the Darfur genocide get
hardly a mention in the newspapers in the last month?”

Yes. Somebody please tell me why.

I know the Schiavo case was about more than the death of one woman.
The Darfur genocide is also about more than the tens of thousands of
people who are dying.

Why do we know so much about the extravagant wedding of a woman from
Duluth, Ga.? And Michael Jackson?

They don’t sell supermarket tabloids with headlines about international
affairs. No. It’s got to be Bigfoot sightings.

Meanwhile, once a year we remember the Holocaust. Usually it is
referred to in Hebrew as “Hashoah,” a word meaning “the whirlwind” or
“the calamity.” More than 6 million Jews were killed in Nazi death
camps. So were an additional 5 million other people. The disabled.
Jehovah’s Witnesses. Gypsies. Homosexuals. Others deemed undesirable.

We must remember Hashoah, the Holocaust. We must also remember the
genocides that preceded it. Specifically, the Armenian Genocide.

“Who, after all, speaks today of the annihilation of the Armenians?”
Hitler said in 1939, just days before his army invaded Poland. He
referenced the Armenian Genocide. Between 1909 and 1918, the Ottoman
Turkish government killed 1.5 million Armenians. I’d never heard of
the Armenians, not until I saw a historical marker in the Armenian
Quarter of Jerusalem’s old city.

We still speak today of the Holocaust. Sometimes we say, “Never
again.” Do we really mean it? Time and again we have chances to stop
genocides from happening again. And most of us would rather watch
“American Idol.” Or “Seinfeld” reruns.

Given the opportunity to save the lives of thousands of people,
most Americans would just rather not know about it.

ANKARA:Turkish Speaker delays visit to Russia over Armenian declarat

Turkish Speaker delays visit to Russia over Armenian declaration

NTV television, Istanbul
6 May 05

The reaction of the Turkish Grand National Assembly [TBMM] against the
countries supporting the Armenian genocide allegations is continuing.

Speaker Bulent Arinc, who last week had sent a letter of condemnation
to the Polish parliament, announced today that he had postponed his
visit to Russia which was due to take place in June.

The declaration of the Russian lower house of parliament, Duma,
on the recognition of the Armenian genocide last week had caused
irritation in Ankara-Moscow relations. The Russian charge d’affaires
had already been summoned to the Foreign Ministry. And today, speaker
Arinc announced that he has postponed his 6-9 June visit to Russia.

Earlier, Arinc had sent a letter of condemnation to the Polish
parliament and Turkey had cancelled Polish parliamentarians’ visit
to the TBMM.

In a previous statement, Arinc had said that the national parliaments
are not suitable platforms to judge contentious periods of history.

=?UNKNOWN?Q?Turqu=EDa?= condena una =?UNKNOWN?Q?moci=F3n?= del Senad

8:07 | ROCES DIPLOMATICOS
Turqu铆a condena una moci贸n del Senado argentino

Denunci贸 y rechaz贸 una declaraci贸n legislativa argentina que reconoce como
“genocidio” la matanza de armenios en 1915.

El ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Turqu铆a denunci贸 la moci贸n que
adopt贸 el mes pasado el Senado argentino que reconoce como un “genocidio”
las matanzas de armenios cometidas en 1915.

“Denunciamos y rechazamos la acusaci贸n de genocidio formulada el 20 de abril
por el senado argentino”, dice un comunicado del Ministerio de Relaciones
Exteriores de Ankara.

El escrito denuncia que “a pesar de las explicaciones (turcas) al m谩s alto
nivel respecto a problemas que puede suscitar dicha resoluci贸n (…)el
senado argentino se comprometi贸 en un acto irresponsable adoptando un texto
abundante en errores hist贸ricos”, y destaca que recientemente Turqu铆a
propuso a Armenia la creaci贸n de una comisi贸n conjunta para investigar la
matanza de los armenios.

Los armenios afirman que 1.500.000 de sus compatriotas perecieron en las
matanzas organizadas por el imperio otomano, al que sucedi贸 la Rep煤blica
turca. Ankara afirma que 300.000 armenios y por lo menos otros tantos turcos
fueron muertos durante incidentes provocados por la revuelta de los
armenios, que hicieron causa com煤n con el ej茅rcito ruso en guerra contra el
imperio otomano, y durante la deportaci贸n hacia la provincia otomana de
Siria, consecutiva a este sedici贸n.

Source:

–Boundary_(ID_lTR5t31k5Q9J9LCd5SCbpA)–

http://clarin.com/diario/2005/05/06/um/m-971150.htm

Turkish FM: Kocharian-Erdogan meeting possible

TURKISH FM: KOCHARIAN-ERDOGAN MEETING POSSIBLE

06.05.2005 04:15

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul views the
meeting of the Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as possible noting however that”nothing
precise has been planned yet” He reminded that the Armenian and Turkish
Foreign Ministers already met despite the absence of diplomatic
relations between the two states. With a reference to diplomatic
sources, Zaman newspaper has published information, according to
which Erdogan is likely to propose a tete-a-tete meeting to Robert
Kocharian during one of international events to be held this May.

Turkey Must Recognize Armenian Genocide: Former US State Secretary

TURKEY MUST RECOGNIZE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE: FORMER US STATE SECRETARY

YEREVAN, MAY 5. ARMINFO. “I think, it would not be harmful. Big
nations may ask pardon”, stated US ex-Secretary of State Madlen Olbrayt
at a scientific conference organized by both “Brukings” institution
(Washington) and “Sabanch” university (Istanbul) answering the question
if Turkey should recognize Armenian Genocide.

According to Turkish “Milliet” newspaper, Olbrayt made as an example
Germany and noted that “Armenian issue is extremely painful and it is
important to leave the past behind despite the fact that Armenians and
Turks have different approaches to this knotty historical problem. If
Turkey does it, it will become the leading country in the region”,
she added. -r-

ANKARA: US begins its efforts for restart Cyprus negotiations

US begins its efforts for restart Cyprus negotiations

The New Anatolian / Ankara

The New Anatolian, Turkey
May 5 2005

High-ranking US official Laura Kennedy meets with Turkish officials
in Ankara, on the first leg of her tour of all the interested parties
in the Cyprus problem.

Besides the Cyprus issue, Kennedy also has contacts on Turkish-Armenian
relations and possible cooperation between Turkey and the US in
Kyrgyzstan and the agreement on the use of Incirlik Airbase by
American forces.

Just a week after the election of Mehmet Ali Talat as the new
president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), the U.S.
government has begun its efforts to jump-start Cyprus negotiations
to resolve the island’s problems.

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for European andEurasian Affairs
Laura Kennedy, on the first leg of her tour of all the interested
countries in the Cyprus problem, met with Turkish officials Tuesday
in Ankara. As well as having some contacts with Turkish and Greek
Cypriot officials on the island, Kennedy is also to travel to the
capital of the other guarantor countries of Greek Cyprus, Britain
and Greece. On the final leg of this tour, she will have contacts in
Brussels with European Union officials dealing with Cyprus.

After meeting with Foreign Ministry Undersecretary Ambassador
Ali Tuygan, National Security Council (MGK) Secretary General Yigit
Alpogan and a group of Turkish parliamentarians, Kennedy said that now
“is a very appropriate time to exchange views with the parties after
the election of Talat.”

Kennedy underlined that the US would continue its efforts to help
the efforts of the UN secretary- general to solve the problem. “We
encourage (Greek Cypriot leader) Papadopoulos to communicate with the
UN secretary-general,” she said Tuesday during a press conference in
Ankara. “The secretary-general asked the Greek Cypriots to articulate
their concerns about the plan. The UN should remain responsible for
the talks. The EU has an important role to play, but again it is up
to the UN to conduct the talks.”

Citing the efforts of U.S. government to ease the international
embargo against the Turkish Cypriots, Kennedy said that these efforts
would continue. But she declined to give any signal for beginning of
direct flights between U.S. and TRNC airports. “We made an informal
survey of the airport of the north,” she said “but no decision has
been taken yet for direct flights.”

On Turkey’s efforts to find a solution to the problem, Kennedy said
that Ankara has a “good record” on this issue. “We, in the US, are
very aware that what Turkey has done,” she said.

No date for Erdogan visit

Asked about a possible meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President George W. Bush in Washington in
the coming months, Kennedy said that “no date has been set yet” for
such a meeting. But she added that both Turkish and US officials are
working on the issue.

On relations between the two countries, Kennedy said that Washington
welcomed the declaration of Turkish officials about the importance
that they attach to relations with the U.S.

Cooperation in Central Asia and the Caucasus

Kennedy also said that Turkey and the U.S. would deepen their
cooperation in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Saying that she had some
contacts with Turkish officials on recent developments in Kyrgyzstan,
Kennedy said that the U.S. would work with Turkey to provide assistance
and support to the interim government of that country.

She also said that she had talked about developments in Georgia,
especially in Abkhazia, with Turkish officials. “Both Turkey and the
U.S. have an interest in seeing progress on this problem,” she said.
“More Abkhazs are living in Turkey than Abkhazia. So, Turkey as a
neighboring country, could play a particular role in this issue.”

‘Why not reconcile the proposals of Erdogan and Kocharian?’

Kennedy responded to questions about the recent exchange of letters
between Erdogan and Armenian President Robert Kocharian with another
question. Referring to Erdogan’s proposal of establishing a committee
between the historians of the two countries and Kocharian’s proposal
to establish an intergovernmental committee, she asked, “Why do not
reconcile the two proposals?”

“We encourage the rapprochement and reconciliation between Turkey and
Armenia,” she said. She also expressed the possibility of a meeting
between Erdogan and Kocharian at the Council of Europe summit meeting
set for Warsaw in the coming days.

On the Turkish concerns about Armenian territorial aspirations from
Turkey, Kennedy said that she had “never heard anything from Armenians”
about not recognizing the Turkish borders. “I have no reason to believe
that the Armenians don’t recognize the existing borders,” she said.

‘We appreciate the Incirlik understanding’

On the recent agreement between Turkey and the U.S. on the use
of Incirlik Airbase by American military forces, Kennedy said,
“We appreciate the understanding.” She also reiterated Washington’s
appreciation of Turkish support for the fight against international
terrorism.

Citing how Washington put the terrorist Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK) on its official terrorist organizations list and encouraged its
European allies to do the same, Kennedy made a reference to the words
of President Bush saying that “Iraq would not be a haven for the PKK.”

Referring also to the trilateral meeting in Ankara between the U.S.,
Iraq and Turkey earlier this year, she said, “We appreciate the words
of the Iraqi government that they do not tolerate any hostile movements
against any neighbors.”

Beirut: Before Aoun’s ‘tsunami,’ a wilderness of suspicions

Before Aoun’s ‘tsunami,’ a wilderness of suspicions
By Michael Young, Daily Star staff

The Daily Star, Lebanon
May 5 2005

So Michel Aoun returns this weekend, promising a tsunami, as he
recently put it. It was typical that he failed to see, in the shadow
of the East Asian killer wave, the inelegance of those words. The
general surfs in on a swell of ambition, the kind that reportedly
makes him believe he can cut a deal with President Emile Lahoud,
to better dispose of him once Aoun is inside the walls.

Events in the past days have been confusing, even by the tortuous
standards of Lebanese political life. No one has come out looking
good. What is going on? Depending on which side you hear, fragments of
narratives are emerging. For a confederacy of Christian former Syrian
allies, at the top of which stands Lahoud, but also Deputy Parliament
Speaker Michel Murr, his son Elias, the Lebanese Broadcasting
Corporation, and others, the controversial agreement last week that
the election law of 2000 would govern the forthcoming elections at the
end of May was a case of Christians being stabbed in the back. They
underline, probably with some merit, that the deal came following an
alliance between Walid Jumblatt, Saadeddine Hariri, Amal and Hizbullah.

The 2000 law, this argument continues, places Christian voters
and candidates at the mercy of Muslims in virtually all electoral
districts. In addition, the law perpetuates an electoral anomaly
in placing Bsharri, which is a bastion of Lebanese Forces support,
in the same district as Muslim-majority Dinniyeh, which is not even
contiguous. This will ensure, as it will in Beirut and Jezzine, that
Christians have virtually no say in the districts, since they will have
little leverage to name, let alone elect, their favored candidates.

It is undoubtedly true that the 2000 law was a hybrid monster
designed to marginalize the Lebanese Forces and the Aounists, to
impose Hizbullah’s and Amal’s hegemony in the south, and to protect
traditional leaders like Walid Jumblatt in the mountains and Rafik
Hariri in Beirut. But it was also destined to give the Lahouds and the
Murrs an advantage in the Metn. Indeed, their hypocrisy in demanding
an electoral law based on the qada, or small circumscription, is
flagrant, since according to the 2000 law the Metn votes as a qada
anyway, thanks to a law they helped fashion (under the supervision
of Syrian intelligence chief Ghazi Kanaan) to protect their interests.

But there is a difference today. This time the Lahouds and Murrs
have a potentially lethal rival in Aoun, whose support is strong in
the Metn. If the general allies himself with another powerhouse in
the district, former President Amin Gemayel, as well as opposition
figures such as Nassib Lahoud, the alliance could easily defeat a
Murr-led list (which could include the president’s son), along with
the Syrian Social Nationalist Party and the Armenians. This would
spell disaster for Lahoud and Murr, and facilitate the president’s
ouster once elections are completed.

That has led to a second narrative, supported by Jumblatt, but also
by other figures in the Martyrs’ Square opposition, suggesting the
problem is not the 2000 law (though it is accepted by the purveyors
of this version as a problem); but that Lahoud and the Murrs are
manipulating sectarian Christian sensibilities, using the LBC and
other media to do so, and flirting with Aoun (for example by promising
him military protection upon his return), in order to break him off
from Jumblatt, the Hariri camp, Qornet Shehwan, and the Lebanese
Forces. More parochially, the Lahouds and Murrs seek to form an
alliance with Aoun in the Metn to save their skin.

A central tenet of this narrative is that Aoun is plotting to
become president, and thinks he can play everybody for a sap. He
feels confident enough to use Lahoud, and then get rid of him; and
to use his opposition allies, then impose himself on them. Are the
accusations correct? Perhaps not, but Jumblatt has been maneuvering
to protect himself, and his visits to Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah
Sfeir and other Christian figures on Tuesday suggest the creation
of a new broad opposition front may be in the works (though with or
against Aoun remains unclear; that will depend on how the general
decides to act). It was obvious that Jumblatt had to make amends for
a lack of transparency that had little reassured his Christian allies
in recent days.

What Jumblatt is said to fear most is an alliance between Aoun and
Hizbullah in the Baabda district, but also an Aounist challenge
in Aley, perhaps in alliance with Talal Arslan. According to some
accounts, Jumblatt’s relations with Hizbullah are not especially good,
and the party has little conviction the Druze leader means what he
says when defending it against disarmament under the authority of
Security Council Resolution 1559. One opposition figure told me that
Hizbullah was also keen to keep all its options open, and by allying
itself with Aoun it could certainly buy some breathing room vis-~H-vis
the UN, even as it further divides the opposition.

Beyond the obvious fact that Lahoud and Murr are doing their best to
protect their turf, much like Jumblatt, Parliament Speaker Nabih Birri
and Hizbullah, the real question is how the two unknown quantities
in the game, Michael Aoun and Samir Geagea, will act. Geagea may
remain in prison for a few more weeks until elections are over, but
both regime supporters and opponents, by failing to know quite what
to do with the two men, have all but ensured that most Christians,
smelling a rat, will back one or the other, or both. That’s a shame,
since there is a solid core of Christians, particularly those who
recall what destruction Aoun and Geagea wreaked on Lebanon, who have
little patience for either man.

No doubt the mutual suspicion, or the myriad other narratives one can
conjure up to explain what is going on in the run-up to elections,
is the first sign of a post-Syrian political order. Where there had
been imposed predictability, there is now uncertainty triggered by
relative autonomy. That’s the silver lining. The cloud, however, is
that Lebanon’s political class is still a long way away from being
capable of renegotiating a new social and sectarian contract to ensure
long-term stability.

Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR.