Author: Vanyan Gary

Emerging Europe Sovereigns Dashboard: War Spillovers in Georgia and Armenia

Vanyan Gary
Fitch Rating
Aug 17 2022

Emerging Europe Sovereigns Dashboard: 
War Spillovers in Georgia and Armenia

Wed 17 Aug, 2022 – 11:25 AM ET

Fitch Ratings had considered Armenia and Georgia as among the sovereigns most vulnerable to the spillover from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but so far, the macro impact has been positive. This reflects the inflow of skilled nationals from the war-affected countries. Up to 90,000 Russian, Belarussian and Ukrainian nationals have entered Georgia since the invasion of Ukraine. The number of visitors to Armenia nearly doubled to 130,000 in June, from February levels, although a breakdown by nationality is not available. Surge in Money Transfers: Money transfers from Russia to these countries have surged. Russian money transfers into Georgia rose by 306% yoy in 1H22. In Armenia, money transfers through banks nearly doubled in the same period (although data by country of origin are not yet available). Boost to External Positions: The large secondary and primary income flows (as Russians relocate but continue to work for their Russia-based employers), combined with ongoing tourism recoveries and higher prices for export commodities, are narrowing current account deficits in both countries and strengthening FX reserves. The inflows have prevented the rise in dollarisation that can occur in both at times of shocks, and have strengthened exchange rates. The latter is supportive for government debt given the high weight of FX-denominated debt in total debt.

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What will establishment of checkpoint on Armenian-Azerbaijani border mean? Expert’s explanation

Vanyan Gary
NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 19 2022
What will establishment of checkpoint on Armenian-Azerbaijani border mean? Expert's explanation
21:05, 19.08.2022

The establishment of a checkpoint on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border does not mean that Azerbaijani citizens can enter Armenia and vice versa, as there is no visa regime between the two countries, the well-known cartographer Rouben Galichian told NEWS.am.

At the same time, the expert did not rule out that some civil vehicles may be ordered to enter the country.

The NSC introduced a new project on opening checkpoints on the state border. The decision stems from the need to ensure the implementation of the instructions given by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the August 4 meeting of the Armenian government.

The draft also says that within two weeks after the decision enters into force, the director of the National Security Service should ensure the adoption of a legal act regulating the security related to the movement of people, goods and vehicles through the checkpoints.

It is proposed to establish the crossing points of the state border of Armenia as follows: "on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border – sections Sotk (Kelbajar), Yeraskh (Sadarak), Carahunge (Eyvazli)."

The expert reminded that the only direction out of all those mentioned, where there is a checkpoint (on the Azerbaijani side), is Carahunge (Eyvazli).

"A situation has developed in which Armenian citizens cannot enter the Azerbaijani-controlled sections of the Goris-Kapan road, while Azerbaijanis can enter Armenian territories impartially and uncontrollably. The Armenian side should have long ago set up its checkpoints there and prohibit Azerbaijanis to enter Armenia, just like the authorities in Baku do," Galichian said.

He recalled the Azeri obstacles for the Iranian trucks on the Goris-Kapan road segments under Baku's control.

According to his assessment, the Karaunj section is the least important for Azerbaijan and has nothing to do with Nakhchivan.

"If Azerbaijanis are ever given the opportunity to travel through Armenian territory to Nakhichevan, checkpoints should be set up at the entrance to and exit from Armenia. And unblocking would be a regime in which Azerbaijan opens its road in Nakhichevan for Armenian vehicles to Iran. What if we open our roads for Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan does not open it for us? What will we do then?" Galichian wondered.

Baku can achieve what it wants and then not allow Armenian citizens to use the road.

"In order to avoid such a scenario, the process must be asymmetrical and one-time. All this has nothing to do with the corridor. Besides, to give a corridor means to transfer the territory of Armenia to Azerbaijan. According to the Constitution, this can happen only as a result of a referendum. Besides, such a decision will cut Armenia off from Iran and create serious problems for us. And it is unacceptable for Iran," the expert concluded.

Georgian language to be taught in Armenian schools

Vanyan Gary

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 15:53,

YEREVAN, AUGUST 18, ARMENPRESS. Georgian language will be studied in several schools of Armenia starting this year, the minister of Education, Science, Culture and Sport Vahram Dumanyan told reporters.

“Georgian will be studied in some schools of Armenia, not only in several schools of border provinces. We are ready,” he said.

Details will be presented soon, he added.

Karabakh President: Protection of new corridor will be carried out by Russian peacekeepers

Vanyan Gary
NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 15 2022
16:30, 15.08.2022

Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) President Arayik Harutyunyan on Monday received a group of members of the Union of Relatives of Servicemen Perished and Missing in the Third Artsakh War.

The meeting addressed issues related to the activity of the Union. The importance of joint work with relevant state structures aimed at clarifying legal regulations of the issues under discussion was highlighted during the meeting.

President Harutyunyan also touched upon the latest escalation on the line of contact and the issue of the alternative motorway to connect Artsakh to Armenia, noting that the talk is about a new corridor, the protection of which, according to the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020, will be carried out by the Russian peacekeepers deployed in Artsakh.

During the meeting, President Harutyunyan also answered a number of questions raised by the attendees.

Yerevan market blast: Race against time to find possible survivors under rubble

Vanyan Gary

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 15:10,

YEREVAN, AUGUST 15, ARMENPRESS. The more time passes the less chances of finding anyone alive under the rubble, a senior firefighter working at the Surmalu market said.

“It is clear that the more time passes the more chances of finding anyone alive is diminishing. The rescue operations don’t stop, we take into account the risks, safety precautions, we must eliminate he risks to be able to work. There is a risk of structural collapse, there are steel-concrete structures hanging, we must remove them and then carry out the search. Besides, using a tractor in this rubble could harm possible survivors under the rubble,” deputy chief of the rescue forces Bagrat Vardazaryan told reporters.

Right now there are 150 firefighter-rescuers deployed, with an additional 102 volunteers from the Armenian Red Cross Society and 15 volunteers from VOMA – a survival-training organization.

Photos by Tatev Duryan




Greek MFA extends condolences over Yerevan explosion

Vanyan Gary

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 16:41,

YEREVAN, AUGUST 15, ARMENPRESS. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Greece offered condolences over the Surmalu market explosion in Yerevan.

“Following with concern the aftermath of the devastating explosion in Yerevan, Armenia, where at least one person lost his life. Our deepest sympathies to his family & the people & Government of Armenia and wishes for a swift recovery to the injured & success in the rescue teams' efforts,” the Greek MFA tweeted on August 14 after the blast when the death toll was 1.

The death toll climbed to 6 since.

16 people are missing.

Iranologist: To overcome the current situation, Armenia have to coordinate its efforts with Tehran and Moscow

Vanyan Gary
ARMINFO
Armenia – Aug 8 2022
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo. The Armenian leadership needs to significantly intensify existing contacts with Iran, bearing in mind the fact that the Baku regime is constantly trying to get  closer to the latter, primarily because of Aliyev's desire to  neutralize the challenges and threats emanating from Iran. Vardan  Voskanyan, Head of the Chair of Iranian Studies at YSU Faculty of  Oriental Studies expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Against such a background, Armenia's inactivity cannot be justified  by anything, including the current crisis of state institutions in  our country. The reasons for the crisis are understandable, but it is  also clear that these reasons will sooner or later go away along with  the authorities that initiated them. In this light, it is very  important that its successors realize the need to restore and  strengthen the country," he said.

In this vein, returning to the policy of Azerbaijan, the Iranian  specialist noted the obviousness of its preparation for war, rather  than peace. According to his estimates, even today Aliyev is using  any opportunity for a war, the final goal of which is the  de-Armenization and absorption of Artsakh and the ripping off  territorial pieces from Armenia. And thjis implies the immediate  restoration of Armenia's security system. Meanwhile, it is precisely  the military-political relations with Iran that are part of it. A  clear confirmation of this is Tehran's repeated confirmations of the  territorial integrity of Armenia.  According to Voskanyan, all  programs, actions and steps of Armenia should be based on the state  of war in which the country is. From the fact that there is no end to  the pressures and creeping aggression of the neighboring dictatorial  state and will not be seen, at least until a worthy rebuff from the  Armenian side. It is necessary to start forging at least now, if this  has not been done a long time ago.

"We understand that Russia still occupies a dominant position in the  South Caucasus. Accordingly, the need to deepen Armenia's relations  with Iran dictates to our leadership to put aside the provincial  nimbleness and to form a trilateral platform for cooperation between  Armenia, Iran and the Russian Federation.  In other words, it is  Armenia that, in turn, can become a place for the deepening of  relations between the Russian Federation and Iran, taking into  account and trying to compare and harmonize the interests of Tehran  and Moscow, rather than trying to play on their contradictions," the Iranologist summed up.  

Belt and Road: China’s platform to raise international cooperation to higher levels

Vanyan Gary

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 13:12, 9 August 2022

XI’AN, AUGUST 9, ARMENPRESS. The 2022 Media Cooperation Forum on Belt and Road Initiative was held organized by the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Daily newspaper and the government of the Shaanxi Province.

Journalists participating in the program organized by the China International Press Communication Centre also took part in the forum.

Huang Kunming, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and head of the Publicity Department said in his speech that Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road idea has significantly increased China’s cooperation level with other countries.

“We are hopeful that as part of the Belt and Road idea we will reach a new level of cooperation and mutual understanding. The One Belt, One Road program proposed by President Xi Jinping is a bright idea through which a new level of global cooperation can be created,” he said.

He said Belt and Road is a “new road of civilization”. “We will progress only through open and fair cooperation.”

People’s Daily President Tuo Zhen said that the Belt and Road initiative is a “wonderful platform for global cooperation.”  “Let Belt and Road become a green road to peace and development.”

He emphasized that the mass media continue to play important role in deepening cooperation between countries.

Liu Guozhong, the Communist party secretary of Shaanxi said: “In the recent period we are highlighting establishment of international ties. We have great hopes in this regard with foreign mass media representatives.”

Xinhua news agency deputy editor-in-chief Zhu Zhongmin compared Belt and Road with a tree that already has roots and has prospects to have great growth.

“The mass media bear the burden that will serve as the basis for future cooperation. We must be the connecting circle between the peoples who are united around the Belt and Road initiative.”

Photo: People's Daily

New tensions erupt over Karabakh, 3 soldiers killed

Vanyan Gary
Al-Mayadeen
Aug 3 2022
  • By Al Mayadeen English 
  • Source: Agencies
  • 3 Aug 21:16 
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Azerbaijani military captures several heights in Karabakh, and the Russian MoD accuses Azerbaijan of breaching the ceasefire in Karabakh.

New tensions erupted over Nagorno-Karabakh on Wednesday as three soldiers were killed and Azerbaijan said it had taken control of several strategic heights in the disputed region.

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought two conflicts over Azerbaijan's Armenian-populated area of Nagorno-Karabakh, one in 2020 and one in the 1990s.

Six weeks of violence in the autumn of 2020 claimed over 6,500 lives and ended with a ceasefire accord sponsored by Russia.

Russia sent 2,000 peacekeepers to monitor the truce, but tensions remain despite a ceasefire deal.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry claimed on Wednesday that Karabakh troops attacked Azerbaijani army posts in the district of Lachin, which is overseen by the Russian peacekeeping force, killing an Azerbaijani conscript.

Read next: Armenia to withdraw its soldiers from Nagorno-Karabakh by September

According to Baku's Foreign Ministry, the "bloody episode" indicated that Armenia violated the ceasefire agreement.

"All responsibility for the incident in Azerbaijan lies with the military and political leadership of Armenia, which has not yet withdrawn its illegal armed formations from the territory of the neighboring state," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The army of the breakaway statelet accused Azerbaijan of breaking a ceasefire and murdering two troops while injuring 14 others.

Karabakh declared a "partial mobilization", the army said in a statement, adding that the situation was "relatively stable" Wednesday evening.

"Measures are being taken together with Russian peacekeepers to stabilize the situation," the Karabakh army said.

The Azerbaijani troops took multiple heights in Nagorno-Karabakh on Wednesday, according to the Defense Ministry's press office.

The Ministry claims that Armenian forces engaged in sabotage against the Azerbaijani military, in breach of trilateral agreements signed by Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow.

"As a result of the response operation carried out by the units of the Azerbaijan military, several heights in Karabakh were taken under control," the office said.

On its part, the Russian Defense Ministry stated in a report on the activities of Russian peacekeepers in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces violated the ceasefire in the region of the height of Sarybaba.

"The situation in the zone of responsibility of the contingent is aggravated. In the area of the height of Sarybaba, the ceasefire regime was breached by the armed forces of Azerbaijan. The command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, together with representatives of the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides, is taking measures to stabilize the situation," the Ministry said.