Author: Vanyan Gary

Will Nagorno-Karabakh’s Fragile Ceasefire Break Down?

Vanyan Gary
The National Interest
Aug 5 2022

Renewed clashes between Azerbaijani troops and Armenian-backed separatists in the Nagorno-Karabakh region threaten to upend a fragile Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement.

by Mark Episkopos

Two soldiers from the breakaway ethnically-Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh and one Azerbaijani serviceman were killed in skirmishes earlier this week. Baku said it launched a retaliatory campaign, dubbed Operation Revenge, after Armenian militants attacked Azerbaijani troops and tried to seize a territory controlled by Russian peacekeepers.

Azerbaijan’s timing is understandable, say Armenian and Russian observers. Russia has reportedly redeployed some of its veteran Nagorno-Karabakh peacekeepers to Ukraine in recent months, replacing them with fresh conscripts. Moreover, the Kremlin can ill afford to spurn its longstanding allies in the former Soviet sphere at a time when it is being isolated by the West over its invasion of Ukraine. Baku has accurately judged that Moscow is in no position to punish it for ceasefire violations and is using the Ukraine crisis as a window of opportunity to hammer Armenian-backed separatist positions in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, say Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev’s detractors.

Azerbaijan denies allegations that it is trying to undermine the 2020 ceasefire agreement, instead accusing “illegal Armenian formations”' of flagrantly violating the truce. Baku says these Armenian formations, described by Azerbaijani media as militants and terrorists, were able to operate from territory controlled by Russian peacekeepers. Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan rebuffed Baku’s claims in a government meeting on Thursday, stating that there are currently no Armenian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Though they agree on little else, both sides have subtly suggested dissatisfaction with the Russian peacekeeping mission. “A number of events that have taken place in Nagorno-Karabakh since 2020, including those in recent days, evoke questions from the Armenian public about the content and nature of the peacekeeping operation in Nagorno-Karabakh. In this context, there is an urgent need to agree on the details of the peacekeeping operation there,” said Pashinyan, referring to Azerbaijan’s alleged ceasefire violations.

The ethnically Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which calls itself the Republic of Artsakh, has previously signaled frustration over Yerevans’s willingness to make concessions to Azerbaijan as part of a larger prospective peace settlement. Reports emerged earlier this year that top Artsakh officials are considering holding a referendum to become part of Russia. There is currently no indication that such an outcome, which would severely jeopardize Russia’s close ties with Azerbaijan, is being seriously considered by the Kremlin.

The Russian Defense Ministry accused Azerbaijan’s military on Thursday of violating the ceasefire agreement near the Sarybaba height in the Shusha district.  “We urge the sides to exercise restraint and comply with the ceasefire regime,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Thursday. “We expect that the existing controversies will be resolved exclusively via diplomatic and political means, with consideration of both sides’ positions and in strict compliance with the statement, adopted by the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia on November 9, 2020.” The European Union joined Moscow in calling on all parties involved to “de-escalate, fully respect the ceasefire and return to the negotiating table to seek negotiated solutions.”

The 2020 ceasefire agreement, brokered by Russia six weeks into the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, returned the districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani control and established an ongoing Russian peacekeeping presence in the Lachin corridor linking Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh. The current tensions center in large part on differing Armenian and Azerbaijani interpretations of the timeline for a new Armenia-Karabakh road to replace the Lachin corridor. Pashinyan has accused Azerbaijan of seeking to “scrap” the ceasefire altogether. “Azerbaijan’s recourse to the escalation serves one purpose: to scrap the regulations set by the [Russian-Armenian-Azerbaijani] statement of November 9, 2020,” he said. Baku insists that it is following all of the agreement’s provisions and has called on Yerevan to do the same.

Azerbaijan’s 2020 war effort was supported and in large part coordinated by Turkey. Azerbaijan’s military imports from Turkey increased exponentially in the months preceding the conflict, according to an analysis conducted by Reuters. Bayraktar TB2 drones, provided in large quantities by Turkey and reportedly operated directly by Turkish servicemen, are widely credited with giving Azerbaijan a battlefield edge. Even as mounting tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh threaten to unravel the truce between Yerevan and Baku, Turkey—which has emerged in prior years as one of Baku’s closest military allies—continues to squeeze Armenia in separate negotiations to normalize diplomatic relations. U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken told his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu in a phone call on Thursday that Washington stands “ready to engage bilaterally, with likeminded partners, and through our role as an OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair to facilitate dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia and help achieve a long-term political settlement to the conflict,” according to a State Department readout. 

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Vladimir Putin in the Russian resort city of Sochi on Friday. “It should not be ruled out that the presidents will exchange opinions in connection with this aggravation,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov when asked if the two leaders will discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh clashes.

Mark Episkopos is a national security reporter for the National Interest.


Armenpress: EU special representative expresses concern over recent tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Vanyan Gary

EU special representative expresses concern over recent tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan

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 21:36, 2 August 2022

YEREVAN, AUGUST 2, ARMENPRESS. Toivo Klaar, EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia, expressed concern regarding the increase in tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent days, ARMENPRESS reports, he wrote on his official Twitter page.

"The European Union is committed to deepening its involvement in the peace process. We are involved at different levels. It is important to de-escalate tensions and use the historic opportunity to turn the page of decades of conflict," Toivo Klaar wrote.

Rosa Linn dominates Spotify Viral Charts in Latin America and hits #26 in the U.K.

Vanyan Gary
wiwibloggs – Eurovision News
  • POSTED ONJULY 30, 2022
  • BYWILLIAM LEE ADAMS
Latin America has embraced Armenia’s Rosa Linn. On Saturday morning her song “SNAP” sat at #1 on the Spotify Viral chart in nearly every country we checked, including: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Uruguay and Venezuela. It was also at #2 in Bolivia, Mexico, and Paraguay.

Given the massive swell in interest throughout the region, it’s no wonder that Rosa Linn has climbed to #4 on the Spotify Global Viral chart. “SNAP” is also #55 on the Billboard Global 200, just ahead of songs like “Un Rattio” from Bad Bunny” and “Another Love” from Tom Odell.

Even as she picks up momentum in Latin America, Rosa Linn is maintaining her foothold in Europe. 

In her third week on the Official Charts in the United Kingdom, she shows no signs of slowing down.

“SNAP” has jumped to #26 this week — up from #43 last week. The only other Eurovision 2022 song still in the Top 100 is the U.K.’s own entry “SPACE MAN” from Sam Ryder, which is down at #71 this week (having dropped from #64 last week).

Rosa Linn’s viral TikTok song continues to rack of views on the platform, where it’s been used on more than 360,000 clips, garnering millions of likes.

Different versions of the song — including a hugely popular sped-up clip — have helped propel the song into TikTok and Instagram feeds around the world. 

Rosa Linn’s success carries a David versus Goliath feel. Whereas many Eurovision 2022 artists have big corporate labels, she’s part of the smaller and more independent Nvak Collective. Founded by Eurovision 2015 alum Tamar Kaprelian, Nvak discovers, nurtures and champions young singers, songwriters and producers. They obviously have good ears. 

Speaking to the BBC, Rosa said: “I’m from Vanadzor, in Armenia, which you probably don’t know where it is in the world, and I’m so, so happy. As a child I’d dream about this.”

Are you over-the-moon excited for Rosa Linn? Which language should she release the song in next? Let us know down below!

United States reiterates support in helping Armenia and Azerbaijan find long-term comprehensive peace

Vanyan Gary

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 09:47,

YEREVAN, JULY 27, ARMENPRESS. United States Department of State spokesperson Ned Price spoke about Armenia and Azerbaijan during the July 26 State Department press briefing.

QUESTION: ….. I have seen your readout on the Secretary’s calls yesterday to President Aliyev and Pashinyan. There’s one line that I see that you’re – correct me if I’m wrong – three or four times since January. The Secretary reiterated his offer of assistance in helping and facilitating the process to both sides. Does that mean the previous offers have been turned down?

PRICE: No, it doesn’t mean that. It means that we’ve been able to achieve what we think is a degree of progress, and through continued engagements and diplomatic conversations with our Armenian, with our Azerbaijani partners in this case, we think we can continue that momentum. So the Secretary obviously has had a number of calls with the Armenian and Azerbaijani leadership, but there are a number of people, senior officials in this building who have engaged with their counterparts at all levels to continue this momentum and to continue to offer our assistance in the issues as we seek a long-term, comprehensive peace.

QUESTION: But there’s one caveat, though, which is the Minsk Group. Yesterday, President Aliyev’s office issued a statement. There was no reference to Minsk Group. If you’re an average Azerbaijani, you will see your president is lambasting Minsk Group every other day. And then you have the State Department readout referring to the very Minsk Group as a possible, let’s say, way to go. My question is: There’s clearly a mismatch here in terms of how you see and how the Azeri Government sees it.

PRICE: We’ve made clear in our statements, including, I believe, in the readouts yesterday, that the United States stands ready to assist these two countries and our likeminded partners in whichever way, whichever format is most effective. We have been a co-chair of the Minsk Group since 1994, but as we’ve demonstrated, we’re also willing to engage bilaterally with the countries to help Armenia and Azerbaijan find that long-term, comprehensive peace.

Will Iran fight Azerbaijan if Baku seeks to invade Syunik?

Vanyan Gary
 Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan Opinion 0

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi of Iran (Photo: Twitter/@Rahbar_Khamenei)

In the last 10 days, the most discussed issue amongst Armenian media, experts and political circles was the statement of Iran’s Supreme Leader during his meetings with the Russian and Turkish presidents held in Tehran. The presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey gathered together to discuss the future of Syria in the Astana format amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine and complete rupture of Russia-West relations. Few could imagine that the Supreme Leader would mention Armenia and, in particular, the Armenia-Iran border during the summit. However, the Iranian message was clear: Iran will not tolerate the closure of the Armenia-Iran border. 

It might seem that the main target of this message was not in the room. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev did not participate in the meeting. He has constantly threatened Armenia that if Yerevan is not going to forget about Nagorno Karabakh, then Azerbaijan would start to speak about Syunik. 

The declaration of parts of Armenia as historical lands of Azerbaijan is not new for President Aliyev. Only a few years after assuming office, President Aliyev ordered Azerbaijani historians to find proof that Nagorno Karabakh was ancient Azerbaijani land. After the victorious war of 2020, high-level Azerbaijani authorities frequently spoke about all of Armenia being historical Azerbaijani land that artificially separates the Turkic world. A few weeks ago, the Azerbaijani president signed a decree to commemorate the anniversary of the Azerbaijani theater in “Erivan,” as Azerbaijanis called the capital of Armenia. In this decree, there were a lot of words about “Erivan” being historical Azerbaijani land and about massacres of Azerbaijanis there. This rhetoric and overt threats against Armenia to invade parts of Armenian territories were noticed in Yerevan and other capitals involved in the regional geopolitics. 

Thus, one of the primary targets of the Supreme Leader’s message was President Aliyev. However, Iranians are wise enough to understand that any large-scale military attack against Armenia is impossible without Turkey’s direct endorsement and involvement. Armenia and Turkey are in the middle of the normalization process and even reached an agreement to open a land border for the citizens of third countries and start direct air cargo flights. However, Turkey always mentioned that the Armenia-Turkey normalization process is not only about these two countries. It is more about other actors, such as Azerbaijan, Russia, the US and Iran. In recent days, both the Turkish president and foreign minister made clear statements that full normalization is possible only if the issue of Azerbaijan is solved, which means that full normalization is possible only if Armenia agrees to sign a treaty with Azerbaijan based on Azerbaijani terms, effectively finishing with Armenians in Artsakh. Thus, as Turkey pushes Armenia to accept Azerbaijani demands, Turkey will be happy to assist Azerbaijan in any new war against Armenia.

Some wondered why the Supreme Leader mentioned the Armenia-Iran border issue during his meeting with the Russian president. One should have a powerful imagination and fantasy to argue that Russia is interested in the closure of the Armenia-Iran border or Azerbaijani control over the southern parts of Armenia. The Armenia-Iran border is the only land border between the Eurasian Economic Union and Iran. Iran and EAEU are close to signing a free trade agreement, and Russia seeks ways to expand its cooperation with Iran as the two face immense pressure from the US. Russia has no reason to be interested in the closure of the Armenia-Iran border, especially as the Russian border troops control the border itself. Russia established several military outposts in Syunik after the 2020 Karabakh war based on the requests of the Armenian government. Thus, most probably, the Supreme Leader just wanted to remind Putin that Iran is in line with Russia on this issue, and maybe he wanted to indicate that Iran was ready to support Russia by investing in Syunik and thus preventing the local population from leaving the region due to the lack of economic opportunities. Iran’s decision to open a consulate in Kapan, the capital of the Syunik region, is more proof of its intentions to keep the current status quo, where Armenia is under the Russian security umbrella and will not provide its territory for any anti-Iranian activities. 

Meanwhile, it should be obvious to Armenia that Iran’s categorical rejection of any control of Azerbaijan over Syunik does not mean that if Azerbaijan starts a large-scale war against Armenia with the apparent goal to invade Syunik, Vayots Dzor, and perhaps other territories of Armenia, Iranian troops will enter Armenia and start fighting against Azerbaijan. War with Azerbaijan will be a catastrophe for Iran. It will not only completely derail Iran-Azerbaijan relations, but it may also trigger Turkey’s involvement in the war. War with Ankara is the last thing that Iran may desire. Given the apparent deadlock over the negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal and the growing probability of Israeli military strikes against Iranian nuclear targets ahead of early parliamentary elections in Israel, Iran cannot avoid tensions and war with Turkey. Thus Armenia should welcome the clear-cut position of Iran that Tehran will not tolerate the occupation of Syunik by Azerbaijan, but Yerevan should clearly understand that Iran will not intervene militarily and will not start a war against Azerbaijan. Iran is ready to support Syunik economically, create new jobs, raise the population’s living standards, and thus strengthen the positions of Armenia. However, in the foreseeable future, the only military deterrence which will prevent Azerbaijan from launching a large-scale attack on Armenia to seize entire regions is the Russian military presence in Armenia. Thus, the strategy to prevent Azerbaijani attacks on Syunik and other border regions should combine Russian military and Iranian economic presence and assistance while simultaneously making genuine efforts to increase the Armenian army’s capabilities to repel any such attempt. 

  •  Bio
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Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan is the founder and chairman of the Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies. He was the former vice president for research – head of the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense Research University in Armenia. In March 2009, he joined the Institute for National Strategic Studies as a research Fellow and was appointed as INSS Deputy Director for research in November 2010. Dr. Poghosyan has prepared and managed the elaboration of more than 100 policy papers which were presented to the political-military leadership of Armenia, including the president, the prime minister and the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Dr. Poghosyan has participated in more than 50 international conferences and workshops on regional and international security dynamics. His research focuses on the geopolitics of the South Caucasus and the Middle East, US – Russian relations and their implications for the region, as well as the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. He is the author of more than 200 academic papers and articles in different leading Armenian and international journals. In 2013, Dr. Poghosyan was a Distinguished Research Fellow at the US National Defense University College of International Security Affairs. He is a graduate from the US State Department Study of the US Institutes for Scholars 2012 Program on US National Security Policy Making. He holds a PhD in history and is a graduate from the 2006 Tavitian Program on International Relations at Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.


Surprising meetings. Why is there no mention of Bakoyan’s physical violence and financial exploitation?

Vanyan Gary
News.am 
Armenia – July 18 2022
"Hayeli.am" : Surprising meetings. Why is there no mention of Bakoyan's physical violence and financial exploitation?
16:20, 18.07.2022

"Hayeli.am" referred to the news that Armenian Yezidi politician Rustam Bakoyan allegedly physically abused and financially exploited his Armenian ex-girlfriend. His ex-girlfriend accused Mr. Bakoyan of physically abusing her several times and robbing her of a large sum of money.

The site writes: "On July 6th, 2022 a meeting of the chairman of the board of the Central Council of Yezidis Germany, Mrs. Zemfira Dilovani, and Mr. Bakoyan took place in the Armenian embassy in Berlin. On the Facebook page of the Central Council of Yezidis in Germany, the meeting between Mrs. Dilovani and Mr. Bakoyan is being hailed and looked upon with great satisfaction, but no critical word nor sentence were the accusations that Mr. Bakoyan is accused of addressed.

Mrs. Dilovani, who publicly complained a while ago in an online conversation with Dr. Irfan Ortac on air at the Alevi TV station Yol TV that she as a female chairperson of the board of ZED (Central Council of Yezidis in Germany) is often not taken seriously or noticed by male Yezidis, seems to have no problem meeting with a politician who is accused of physical and psychological violence against women, despite her own alleged experiences as a woman in a leading position. However, not only Mrs. Dilovani seems to have no problem with the alleged actions of Bakoyan.

For example, Sahir Alias, nephew of the current and controversial spiritual leader Baba Sheikh Ali Alias and online activist posted a photo with Mr. Bakoyan on his Instagram profile on July 10, 2022, with the following caption:

"It was nice to meet you Mr. @rustambakoyan, I hope we can find a good solution for the Yezidis worldwide. Fighting for human rights/fighting for the Yezidi rights."

Apparently, it seems to be no problem for Mr. Sahir Alyas to meet with Mr. Bakoyan despite the massive accusations, even less so does he seem to be interested in the "human rights" of Mr. Bakoyan's ex-girlfriend.

We are amazed and shocked that Yezidi activists, dignitaries, and public figures have no problem meeting with Mr. Bakoyan without voicing any criticism about the allegations made against him.

This meeting is particularly surprising in light of the fact that Sahir Aliyas presented and introduced himself in public as a champion and representative of women's rights.

We hope that all parties involved will apologize publicly for this misconduct and take a clear position on the accusations made against Mr. Bakoyan."

Pakistan-Iran trade through Zero Point gate resumes – DAWN

Vanyan Gary

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 09:40, 18 July 2022

YEREVAN, JULY 18, ARMENPRESS.  Tax free border trade through Zero Point, the gate between Pakistan’s Taftan town and Mir Javeh town of Iran, was resumed on Saturday after the trade gate reopened following a 10-day closure for Eid holidays, DAWN newspaper reports.

Taftan Assistant Commissioner Zahoor Ahmed Baloch told DAWN that mostly edible commodities were imported from Iran through Zero Point, adding these days nothing was being exported to Iran from Pakistan.

Pashinyan invites Belgian PM to visit Armenia

Vanyan Gary

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 10:27,

YEREVAN, JULY 21, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan sent a congratulatory message to Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Belgium Alexander De Croo on the occasion of the Belgian National Day, the Armenian PM’s Office said.

The message reads as follows,

“Your Excellency,

I warmly congratulate you and the friendly people of Belgium on the occasion of the National Day of the Kingdom of Belgium.

I attach great importance to the continuous development and strengthening of interstate relations based on traditional friendship between the peoples of Armenia and Belgium.

In March this year, the Republic of Armenia and the Kingdom of Belgium celebrated the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, which is another occasion to evaluate our commitments based on a common system of values and principles, to further develop our cooperation in the future, to contribute to the establishment of peace and sustainable development in the European family and around the world.

I am sure that through joint efforts, the mutually beneficial cooperation between Armenia and Belgium will continue to develop and expand in bilateral and multilateral formats, including within the framework of the Armenia-EU Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement.

Taking this opportunity, I cordially invite you to visit Armenia at any time convenient for you.

I wish you good health and all the best, and further prosperity and progress to your country.

Please accept, Your Excellency, the assurance of my highest consideration”.

Human rights groups criticize EU’s Azerbaijan gas deal

Vanyan Gary
Public Radio of Armenia
Armenia –
, 17:06

 2 minutes read

Human rights groups have criticized an EU deal to ramp up gas supplies from Azerbaijan, as Europe scrambles to secure non-Russian sources of energy, The Guardian reports.

The European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, on Monday hailed Azerbaijan as a “crucial” and “reliable” energy supplier, as she announced an agreement with Baku to expand the southern gas corridor, the 3,500km pipeline taking Caspian Sea gas to Europe.

Standing alongside Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, Von der Leyen said the EU was diversifying away from Russia and turning “towards more reliable, trustworthy partners”, adding she was glad to count Azerbaijan among them.

Under the agreement, gas supplies to the EU from Azerbaijan are forecast to reach 20bn cubic meters a year in 2027, up from 8bn currently. Supplies are set to increase to 12bn by 2023.

Human Rights Watch said the EU should not have signed the memorandum, nor enter a mooted new bilateral agreement, without insisting on political reforms: the release of scores of political prisoners and changes to laws that heavily restrict non-governmental organizations and the media.

Azerbaijan uses oil and gas “to silence the EU on fundamental rights issues,” said Philippe Dam, acting EU director at Human Rights Watch. “The reality is that Azerbaijan authorities have been famous for cracking down on civil society activists investigating corruption, especially when it comes to oil and gas.”

“The EU should not say a country is reliable when it is restricting the activities of civil society groups and crushing political dissent,” Dam said.

Other campaigners accused the EU of undermining its climate goals, while enriching autocrats. “It is extraordinary that the EU seems intent on not learning from its current predicament, and is pushing to build more pipelines which would lock us into gas in the long term,” said Barnaby Pace, a senior gas campaigner at Global Witness. “A rapid boost for renewable energy and home insulation should be the obvious answer to the crises Europe is staring at – and certainly not repeating the mistakes that have taken us to this point.”

Eve Geddie, director of Amnesty International’s Brussels office, said “repressive and unaccountable regimes are rarely reliable partners” and added that “privileging short-term objectives at the expense of human rights is a recipe for disaster.”

Opposition MP: Artsakh, Armenia security, territorial integrity has been violated

Vanyan Gary
NEWS.am
Armenia – July 12 2022
12:24, 12.07.2022

The security and territorial integrity of Artsakh [(Nagorno-Karabakh)] and Armenia has been violated, the enemy has seized a part of our homeland, massacred thousands of soldiers, and now it has set his sights on Syunik [Province of Armenia]. Artur Ghazinyan, a member of the opposition "Armenia" Faction in the National Assembly of Armenia, wrote this on Facebook.

"And what are we [i.e., Armenians] doing? With a pass by the Azerbaijani occupation regime, we are nationally discussing the matter of placing a statue of Jesus Christ on top of Mount Hatis. Our situation is dire; we are not getting serious in any way," Ghazinyan added.