Author: Vanyan Gary

Mideast Mirror
May 13, 2005

Erdogan looks to Washington via Tel-Aviv

Under pressure from all sides, the Turkish PM’s visit to Israel was
intended to recoup lost ground with Washington, says Fahmi Houeidi in
Asharq al-Awsat
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent trip to Israel
was met with widespread indignation in the Arab world, writes
Islamist commentator Fahmi Houeidi in the Saudi daily Asharq
al-Awsat.

DIMINISHED POPULARITY: Many Arabs had expected the Islamist Erdogan
to deal more harshly with the Israelis than his predecessors. That is
why it is no exaggeration to say that the popularity of Erdogan and
his Justice and Development Party (AKP) has diminished considerably
among Arabs as a result of his recent sojourn.
And since I was in Istanbul at the time, I can vouch that his
popularity has plummeted even inside Turkey itself-especially among
his core constituency.
I have to confess that Erdogan’s visit to Israel came as a shock to
me at first; I simply did not expect him to take such a step, leading
a top-level delegation of government ministers, senior officials, and
businessmen to Jerusalem. It was common knowledge that the Turkish
prime minister was reluctant to travel to Israel, despite the many
invitations he had received in the past. When Erdogan won the last
Turkish election, the Israeli ambassador to Turkey hurriedly
contacted his office to arrange an appointment for him to
congratulate the new prime minister. But Erdogan refused to meet with
the Israeli envoy until after he had met with all Arab and Muslim
ambassadors. On his last trip to Russia, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon asked to stop over in Ankara and meet with Erdogan, but the
latter declined, citing prior commitments.
When Israel assassinated Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, Erdogan
described it as a ‘terrorist state.’ The separation fence Israel is
building has been described by the Turkish prime minister as a ‘wall
of shame.’
These episodes led to a chilling of ties between the two countries, a
fact that was reflected in the decision by the Turkish national
Security Council to cancel a joint military industrialization project
(because of its unfeasibility), and by the Israeli decision to
abrogate an agreement to purchase 50 million cubic meters of water a
year from Turkey (because of high costs).
At the time, the Israeli press reported that importing water from
Turkey would cost twice as much as desalination. Tensions between
Ankara and Tel Aviv grew when it was disclosed that Israeli
intelligence was active among the Kurds in northern Iraq; the Turks
were so incensed that they threatened to break off a deal to
modernize weaponry they had signed with the Israelis.
So it can be clearly seen that Erdogan’s trip to Israel bucked a
trend that had established itself over some time. What was behind it?
I traveled to Turkey to find out, and this was what I came up with:
The Americans are still angry with Erdogan and the AKP government;
administration hawks have still not forgotten how the Turkish
government refused to allow U.S. forces access through Turkey at the
time of the Iraq war. The Americans have not forgiven Turkey for
rejecting an offer of USD 1 billion as compensation for the damages
they sustained as a result of the conflict in Iraq (Turkish
politicians rejected that offer because they felt that conditions
attached to it constituted interference in their country’s internal
affairs).
In addition, Washington has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with
Turkey’s growing ties with Syria especially at a time when the U.S.
was exerting pressure on Damascus.
In spite of efforts to repair relations between Washington and
Ankara, it seems that ties have not been restored to normal. Erdogan
asked to meet with President Bush three months ago, but has not
received a reply from the White House yet-although Bush did meet with
the Turkish leader as soon as his party won the last Turkish general
election even before Erdogan became prime minister.
In addition, Erdogan and the AKP are facing mounting domestic
pressures from so many quarters that it is difficult to believe that
they are unconnected. In fact, a senior AKP official recently
remarked that a certain party outside Turkey had pressed a button and
set off in motion the following developments:
-More than 20 AKP MPs have resigned their positions in the party.
While these resignations had not practical implications on Erdogan’s
grip on power, they were serious nonetheless.
-Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok broke his silence to warn of the
growth of ‘Islamic Reactionism’ in Turkey. Ozkok stressed that Turkey
is not an Islamic but a secular state. He reminded Turks that the
army has not abandoned its sole as the guardian of the country’s
secular constitution.
-State President Ahmed Necdet Sezer mirrored Ozkok’s views, warning
of the threat of ‘creeping Reactionism.’
-Constitutional Court chief justice Mustafa Bumen declared that even
if the constitution were to be amended, it would still be illegal for
women to wear scarves in government institutions.
These attacks surprised even secular Turks, such as Ertugrul Ozkok,
editor in chief of Hurriyet. The Armenian question is another sword
hanging above the Turkish government’s head. The Armenians are
energetically trying to designate the massacres carried out by the
Ottomans against them in 1915 as genocide-which will entitle them to
compensation and will lead to Turkey being censured. They succeeded
in persuading the European parliament to pass such a resolution back
in the late 1980s. A similar resolution is now pending in the U.S.
congress. Designating the Armenian massacres as genocide would be
catastrophic for Turkey, because it would then have to pay
astronomical sums in compensation. Should that happen, a political
earthquake will undoubtedly hit Turkey, which would conceivably lead
to the fall of the government.
The Armenian genocide bill has been stagnant in Congress largely
thanks to the efforts of the Jewish lobby in Washington. Moreover,
the Turkish government, upon reopening Ottoman files closed by
Ataturk in the 1920s, discovered that many documents refute the
Armenians’ allegations and seem to absolve the Ottoman authorities of
culpability in the massacres.
I was not surprised to hear from many Turkish friends who maintain
ties with senior AKP officials that confronted with such pressures,
Erdogan had no choice but to improve ties with Israel. According to
the Turkish prime minister’s calculations, traveling to Israel would
(a) satisfy the United States, (b) improve ties with the Jewish
state, and (c) express gratitude to the Jewish lobby in Washington.
Moreover, Erdogan also believes that the visit would ease some of the
domestic pressures exerted upon him by Turkish friends of the United
States and Israel.
However, an Ankara insider told me that had the Arab world been more
supportive of the AKP government, Erdogan would have had more options
to choose from. As it was, he did not have any.

Pan Armenian News

KARABAKH MFA REFUTED YURI MERZLYAKOV’S WORDS

13.05.2005 06:42

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The NKR Foreign Ministry refuted the words of OSCE Minsk
Group Russian Co-Chair Yuri Merzlyakov, who said that the cease-fire was
violated during the monitoring at the Karabakh and Azeri armed forces
contact line. As a representative of the NKR MFA Press Service told
PanARMENIAN.Net reporter, no violations of cease-fire were fixed during the
monitoring. To note, the monitoring with the participation of OSCE
Chairman-in-Office’s Personal Representative Andrzej Kasprzyk was conducted
in the village of Ghapanly of the Terter region last week.

Pan Armenian News

VARTAN OSKANIAN TO DEPART FOR KRAKOW MAY 14

13.05.2005 07:55

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Tomorrow, May 14, Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian will depart for Krakow, the RA MFA Press Service reported. On the
same day he is scheduled to meet with the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs. The
parties are expected to exchange opinions of the present stage of the
Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement within the Prague process. Then Vartan
Oskanian will leave for Warsaw, where the Armenian and Azerbaijani
Presidents will meet within the frames of the CE summit to be held May
16-17.

The Messenger, Georgia
May 11 2005

Enguri HES disconnected for one month
By M. Alkhazashvili

Enguri hydroelectric station will be switched off later this month
for about four weeks to enable repair work to be carried out.

The government had planned earlier this year that Enguri would be
closed for almost three months from the beginning of April for the
much needed repairs. After the loss of the Kavkasioni high voltage
transmission line, however, which meant Russian imports were
effectively switched off, the government decided that the bulk of
planned repairs would be delayed until next Spring.

Disconnecting Enguri for only four weeks will nevertheless impact the
country’s energy supply, as it is the largest producer of domestic
electricity, although with snowmelt filling the reservoirs serving
other hydroelectric stations, the country is less dependent now on
Enguri than it was in winter.

The problem faced by the Ministry of Energy is that the vital repair
works can only be carried out in spring, but this spring the loss of
Russian imports meant losing Enguri as well would leave the country
in darkness.

Energy Minister Nika Gilauri explained in winter that Georgia would
have to rely on imports from Russia and Armenia while Enguri was
switched off, but its is clear that neither supply cannot be relied
on because the old transmission lines, which have received little or
no rehabilitation over the past fifteen years, are frequently
disabled.

It is still impossible to reach the section of the Kavkasioni line
damaged by an avalanche back in February because of snow – only in
June will it be possible to repair the line, officials say.
Meanwhile, Georgia is no longer importing electricity from Armenia
because it is unable to pay the higher prices demanded by Armenia
following the devaluation of the dollar.

It is for this reason that only the water-gate on Enguri’s first unit
will be repaired this year, while repairs to the central water tunnel
will be postponed until next spring. There is a good chance, however,
that Georgia will find itself in a similar situation next year – and
that the question will again arise whether the country can afford to
switch off Enguri to allow the necessary repairs to be carried out.

Embassy of The United States
Yerevan, Armenia
11 May 2005

Lowering the Colors at the U.S. Embassy on Bagrahmian Avenue

Thursday, April 28, at 5:30, the U.S. Embassy on Baghramian Avenue lowered
its flag for the last time. A short ceremony was held to say good-bye to the
building that has been home to the U.S. Mission in Armenian since it was
established in 1992. After hearing from colleagues who were there when the
first Ambassador arrived and the first U.S. flag was flown, the colors were
lowered and Ambassador Evans left the Embassy for the last time.

AKI, Italy
May 9 2005

RUSSIA: FOCUS – PUTIN UPBEAT BUT CIS DRIFTING APART

Moscow, 9 May (AKI) – On Sunday, Russian president Valdimir Putin was
sounding upbeat over the future of the Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS) which groups together Russia with 12 of the former
Soviet Union’s 15 republics. “The friendship between the people of
the Commonwealth of Independent States cannot cease and cannot be
destroyed. We will resolve all the problems together,” he said at a
CIS summit in the Russian capital.

The gathering of CIS leaders ahead of the celebrations on Monday for
the 60th anniversary of the Allies’ victory in Europe during World
War II, mark a new attempt by Putin to reassert Russia’s traditional
leading role over the region. But despite Putin’s optimistic tone,
Moscow’s influence is fast eroding amid Washington’s growing support
for attempts by many former Soviet republics to wrestle free from
Russia’s grip.

Putin spoke of the need for “greater cultural cooperation,” between
member-states and the need to “put up a common fight against
terrorism – the new Nazism of the 21st Century,” however, the Russian
leader could not mask the cracks that are threatening to tear the CIS
apart.

>From the onset, the summit was marred by important defections, and
not just those of the three Baltic republics – Estonia, Lativa and
Lithuania – who have always refused to join the CIS, a stance which
has further hardened following their membership to the EU.

Georgian president Michail Saakashvili snubbed Sunday’s event to
protest the failure by Russia’s military to withdraw from several
bases in Georgia. The president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliev cited as
his reason for not turning up, the presence of Armenian president
Robert Kocharian who the Azerbaijani’s blame for the deadlock over
the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

But even some of the leaders who did attend, appeared to signal that
their presence was nothing more than a gesture of courtesy towards
their Russian hosts, rather than any deep sentiment of belonging.

Prominent among these was the Western-backed, newly elected Ukrainian
president Victor Yuschenko – who through the popular Orange
Revolution mass protests overcame electoral fraud by his
Moscow-backed opponent Victor Yanukovich – and Moldavian president,
Vladimir Voronin, who despite his Communist origins has said his
country should “rather look West than East.”

Uzbekistan’s president, Islam Karimov is another leader whose faith
in the CIS seems to be wavering. Just before his departure for
Moscow, he told the the Uzbeki news agency Uzreprot that the “CIS is
facing a great crisis and does not have much of a future.”

Some leaders including Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko,
described as “the last dictator left in the heart of Europe,” by the
American secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and Armenia’s Kocharian
a long-time Moscow ally, remain staunchily loyal to the CIS concept.

But their support may not be enough to give the CIS, and by default,
Moscow enough clout in regional politics.

There signs are also ominous in the spheres of security and economic
cooperation.

Since 1999, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldavia
have formed GUUAM, a pro-Western security alliance to rival the CIS’s
Collective Security Agreement (CSA) made up of Belarus, Russia,
Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

A free-trade arrangement between CIS remains stillborn for now while
new economic ventures such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan natural gas and
oil pipelines developed with strong backing by Western
multi-nationals have all but excluded Russia from a stake in the
region’s rich natural and energy resources.

Putin Urges Ex-Soviet Bloc to Preserve CIS

AP Online;
May 09, 2005

HENRY MEYER

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday urged other leaders in a
12-nation ex-Soviet bloc to preserve the troubled Commonwealth of
Independent States, as Ukraine’s president said there was little use
for the organization without major reform.

At a summit held the day before commemorations of the 60th anniversary
of the defeat of Nazi Germany, Putin said the grouping of 12 out of
the 15 former Soviet republics had a key role in combatting the spread
of terrorism, extremism and xenophobia and fostering peace.

“For all of us it is obvious that Nazism, extremism and terrorism are
threats feeding on a single ideological source, a terrible threat,
against which we are obliged to defend our unique and peaceful
commonwealth,” Putin said.

“The new generation of our citizens should know the truth about the
events of those days. To know that truth means having an internal
immunity to the propaganda of extremism and xenophobia, national and
religious incitement,” he said, adding that the CIS could help with
such work.

The meeting convened amid growing questions about the viability of the
CIS, which brings reformist leaders together with entrenched
Soviet-era autocrats following the popular uprisings against regimes
in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said after the summit there was
“little use” at present for the CIS but its members still needed an
organization that would focus on economic integration and avoid
interfering in the politics of its members.

Yushchenko said he raised his concerns with other CIS leaders and
although he insisted that Ukraine was not leaving the CIS, he warned
that his patience for reform was not infinite.

“If you forcibly damage interests of any country, it could easily
reject this (CIS) project,” he told The Associated Press.

Putin himself in March questioned the body’s usefulness, saying it had
been created for a “civilized divorce” of Soviet republics, unlike the
European Union, which worked to pull its members closer together.

But on Sunday he said that six decades after the end of what Russia
terms the Great Patriotic War, the fraternity the peoples of the
Soviet Union felt as they fought in World War II was still palpable
today. Maintaining “historical unity” was a good basis for stable
development of the countries, he said.

In a reflection of the disputes between the member countries, two of
the leaders, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliev, did not attend.

Saakashvili was staying away from Sunday’s meeting, as well as
Monday’s Victory in Europe Day celebration in Moscow, because Georgia
failed to win agreement last week on the removal of Russian bases it
regards as a legacy of Moscow’s imperial domination.

Aliev was boycotting because of the attendance of Armenian President
Robert Kocharian, and because Sunday is a day of mourning, marking a
key battle during the six-year war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The CIS was born in the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, and its
advocates hoped it would foster closer integration between the newly
independent countries. Many of its initiatives have foundered,
however, including plans to remove trade barriers that have dominated
the CIS agenda since its creation _ and it has long been criticized
for being little more than a talking shop.

The group’s attempts to prove otherwise have often only fostered more
discord. Its peacekeepers have been accused of destabilizing conflict
zones in the former Soviet Union, and its election monitors _ deployed
to provide a counterbalance to Western-dominated observer missions _
have consistently given high marks to blatantly fraudulent ballots.

Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, where the government is also looking
West, are aiming for membership in the EU and NATO, and they have
forged close ties within a rival organization that does not include
Russia as they seek to throw off Moscow’s influence.

Talks on releasing Azeri prisoners underway

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
May 7 2005

Baku, May 6, AssA-Irada — The international taskforce on captives
and hostages continues talks with Armenia on the release of three
Azerbaijani soldiers from captivity. It has sent an appeal to the
Armenian side to provide suitable conditions for its representative
in Upper Garabagh to meet with the Azerbaijani prisoners for the
third time, the taskforce member Bernard Klazen told journalists.

The previous round of talks with Armenia on the issue was held on
May 4, Klazen said.

“The Armenian side says the soldiers are in good health. However, we
want to examine this ourselves.” Klazen voiced a hope the Azerbaijani
captives will be released soon.

“Armenia will achieve nothing by keeping the soldiers in captivity”,
he added.

The three soldiers were captured after they lost their way close to
the Terter District and passed to the Armenian side of the frontline
on February 15.*

‘IS THAT POSSIBLE THAT ERDOGAN WILL LAY A WREATH TO THE MONUMENT?’

AZG Armenian Daily #083, 07/05/2005

Armenian Genocide

This is the question that chairman of Turkish Press’ Council Oktay
Eqsi posed in his May 6 article of Hyurriet indicate point at the
Tsitsernakaberd Memorial of Genocide Victims. A “suspicious” question,
as the author dubbed it, opens the article, “Is that possible that
the Turkish prime minister will some day lay a wreath to the monument
of genocide victims in Yerevan?” and added, “I think yes. But before
that, there is a vital issue to triumph over.”

What’s that issue? Oktay Eqsi writes that he watched a program on
Turkish NTV recently during which Murad Belge said that people like
him (those who tell the truth) are threatened.

Belge’s words apparently bewildered Eqsi. He accepts that there are
fanatics in every society and compares Turkish fanatics with those
of Armenia and then concludes that Turkish society’s past is less
stained than Armenia’s but still asks, “How are we going to discuss
this issue? Those recognizing the fact of genocide will offer their
opinion but we will not be able to oppose it. Why? Out of fear that
something will happen to them. Unfortunately, this fear took roots in
all of us. Moreover, countries like Switzerland are taking measures
to jail those who deny the genocide. It also binds our hands”.

Eqsi wanders for a way out, “Well, so what are we to do? To accept
the unacceptable thesis that Turks eliminated Armenians without any
reason? I rebel against it because my approach opposes to those who
accept facts and those who reject the facts. I see the early 20th
century one full of tragic events. Not only Armenians underwent
hardship but Turks did too. But I am sure that Armenians saw more
of it. Deportation is indeed the symbol of that period that worries
Turks much. Even though today’s generation and government is not
responsible for what happened, we are ready to offer our condolences
(to Armenians) on condition that they sympathize with perished Turks
and Kurds. I wrote 5-6 years ago when these issue were not yet on the
agenda, ‘Let us build 2 monuments in Van, one in memory of Armenian
subjects killed in 1914-15, the other in memory of Turkish citizens
killed the same years’. People may lay flowers to whichever monument
they wish. Let us not forget the sorrow of that time and do not allow
that it is forgotten. But let us be just towards both sides”.

Coming back to his question whether it “Is possible that the Turkish
prime minister will some day lay a wreath to the monument of genocide
victims”, Eqsi says, “Yes, and wholeheartedly, let only the monuments
equally reflect responsibility and sorrow. For that to come true we
need Orhan Pamuks, Murad Begles to emerge in Armenia as well in order
to bring counterarguments”.

Turkish official denial of the Genocide remains in force. Though
speaking in his article from official Turkey’s positions, Oktay Eqsi
contradicts himself, thus, perhaps, uncovering the crack in Turkey’s
negation.

By Hakob Chakrian

ARMENIAN BREACH CEASE-FIRE IN ALL DIRECTIONS OF FRONTLINE
2005-05-06 11:23

Azerbaijan News Service
May 6 2005

Armenian military forces stirred up their efforts in all directions of
frontline. At 11:15 p.m., from their positions located in “sovkhoz”
called area of Agdam region, Armenian military forces fired at
positions of Azerbaijan army located in Ahmedagali and Chiragli
villages of the region. Armenian soldiers positioned at Bash Qervend
village shelled at positions of Azerbaijan army in Chiragli and
Miresehelli village. Orta Qishlag village of Azerbaijan also faced
periodic fire since 8:30 a.m. Azerbaijan army responded with adequate
fire. Casualties are not reported.