Author: Varosian Antranik

Azadliq, Azerbaijan
Feb 4 2010

The USA begins to act in the Southern Caucasus

What makes anxious Moscow and Baku?

A rapprochement between Russia and Azerbaijan has triggered an
expected reaction in the West. At the same time, Russia ‘s negative
approach towards growing Turkish role in the region has also come on
the US radar. A plan of the managing-director of NABUCCO to discuss
this issue in all partner to the project countries led to an
impression that the West is again placing the energy issue in the
forefront, targeting the removal of all the anxieties in this sphere.
Consequently, when commenting on this issue, Azerbaijani officials do
not forget to underline Russia’s considerable influence in the region.

Nevertheless, the discussions related to the region at the US
intelligence committee and the visit of the US Undersecretary of State
to the region, in particular, his visit to Munich to meet [President]
Ilham Aliyev enable us to say that the West is completely anxious
about Russia’s growing active role. So we are now observing outlines
of the US reaction to Russia’s new eastern bloc. The Azerbaijani
government will have to naturally respond to certain questions why the
situation has reached this level. We wonder, will the West suffice
itself to those responses? This issue also remains pressing. To tell
the truth, the key issue stands as following: given the current state
of affairs, what could remove concerns of the USA?

A crystal clear strategy…

At all levels the Azerbaijani authorities have maintained such a
position that as if it is neither useful nor beneficial to cooperate
with the West. Highlighting Russia’s special weight in the region,
they drew attention to the fact that they have handed all the levers
over to the Kremlin. For its part, the USA has made it clear for
itself that it is already impossible to work with Aliyev. As Aliyev
does not only fulfils minimum with Russia but also comes up with all
initiatives to bring the relations with the Kremlin to the highest
point. He proposes Baku as a capital for Moscow’s cultural and
educational campaign. In its turn, this is a sign that the last bridge
between Aliyev Jr. and the USA "has been blown up". The Azerbaijani
authorities as a bright political team and a guarantor of Russia’s
interests in the South Caucasus played a complex role. Ilham Aliyev
did not visit Georgia . In his turn, [the head of the public and
political department at the Presidential Administration] Ali Hasanov
issued statements, boasting about the size of Russia’s impact on
Azerbaijan . [The head of the Presidential Administration] Ramiz
Mehdiyev has introduced Russia as the capital of the new cultural era.
Gazprom was introduced as an alternative in case [the construction of]
NABUCCO [gas pipeline] fails. So the Azerbaijani authorities have
fully outlined their Strategy with regard to the future.

The USA starts with Russia

Some people consider that the USA will have no chance to pay attention
to Azerbaijan as it is engaged with China . In the meantime, seizing
the first opportune moment, official Baku quickens its steps towards
embracing the Kremlin.

It was not wrong. Nevertheless, what has not justified itself is that
the USA did not warn the Azerbaijani authorities. It simply made such
a warning to Russia: "Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev’s treatment
of the former Soviet republics as his priority sphere of influence
could shake the relations with Washington." Another interpretation of
such a statement and warning is that Russia with attempts to
imperialism may shake its foundation. If we add the Russian finance
minister’s ongoing statement in the media over the need for funding
from the West, it may become obvious that there are sufficient basis
for Russia to learn a lesson from the US warning. Or, if they do not
draw a relevant conclusion, rather tough economic situation will await
Russia . Given this, what expects the Azerbaijani authorities? We
assume Ali Hasanov thinks about it? As he knows who is who and what
they can.

Why is a US official looking for Aliyev?

Ilham Aliyev visited Munich to attend an ordinary event on the eve of
the visit of the US deputy secretary of state to the region. However,
the US official will return to Munich to meet him to deliver his
bosses’ message to him of course, if Ilham Aliyev does not
unexpectedly visit another country ahead of the visit of the US
diplomat. Some years ago, when then Secretary of Defence Donald
Rumsfeld visited Baku to meet Ilham Aliyev, the latter paid an
unexpected visit to Pakistan . He then did not sit idle and pursued
Aliyev and managed to meet him in Pakistan. If Ali Hasanov also knows
that the USA is the superpower, how successful it is for Ilham Aliyev
to avoid meetings with politicians of that country, I have no answer
to this question. However, this time the US is set to investigate and
resolve everything comprehensively.

Why does a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement increase the risk of war?

The head of the US National Intelligence said: "Turkey and Armenia
have recently made a progress in their bid for the reconciliation.
This rapprochement has also had an impact the sensitive relations
between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And this contributes to the risk of
regulating the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict."

A short while ago Azadliq newspaper carried a commentary saying
Armenia’s intention to establish close relations with Turkey will
bring Azerbaijan strategically closer to Russia. One of the key
reasons behind this rapprochement is Russia’s interest to remain in
the South Caucasus and efforts of the Azerbaijani authorities to
maximum preserve the current status quo.

Thus, seeing the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, Russia may
persuade Yerevan to avoid occupying policy and again make attempts to
flare up the conflict. As a result, the closest ally may benefit from
the existence of the conflict, i.e. the Azerbaijani government. Under
the current situation, as the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia
has brought peace to the horizon, it may worry Russia and official
Baku and flare the conflict up again. What the US official said was
the confirmation of Azadliq’s report.
[translated from Azeri]

HOLY MASS FOR THE DEAF
Leonid Martirosyan

Azat Artsakh Newspaper NKR
February 09, 2010

As it is known, in January of this year the former head of Armenian
diplomatic mission Oleg Essayan has been appointed in Minsk Ambassador
Plenipotentiary of Armenia in the Russian Federation. It is known
also, that on that post he has taken the place of Armen Smbatyan,
who in the end of 2009 was elected as executive director of the
Interstate fund of humanitarian cooperation of the CIS countries. It
seems, that appointment of the ambassador – a usual event, concerning
internal affairs of this or that state, but as it turns out – not in
the given concrete case. It would be rather strange, if Azerbaijan has
not reacted to similar rotation of the Armenian diplomats. Especially
in so important state for our region, as Russia which, besides, is the
country-co-chair of the OSCE Minsk group. Reaction was, certainly,
negative. In Azerbaijan, as it is known, memory is selective. Here
they can even "forget" absolutely about the bloody crimes of rather
recent past, as in a case with "Sumgait", "Baku" and other Azerbaijan
genocide actions. But here, however, they remember well, that in due
time Oleg Essayan headed the NKR parliament, that in understanding
of Azerbaijanians in itself is already criminal.

But whether only the person of the new ambassador of Armenia in
Russia has displeased Azerbaijan? It has turned out, no. Prospects of
adjacent processes, like not even Karabakh settlement, but notorious
national diplomacy, cause not less alarms. Readers certainly remember,
that in the beginning of July of the past year ambassadors of Armenia
and Azerbaijan in Russia Armen Smbatyan and Polad Byul-Byul oghly,
representatives of both countries’ parliaments and the public visited
Nagorno-Karabakh. This mission rather loudly, with unjustified pathos,
has been named peace-making. Our irony may seem to someone excessive,
but in this case it is more than pertinent. But about it – then, but
now about anxieties of Azerbaijan in connection with Oleg Essayan’s
new appointment.

In Baku they find, that after appointment of Oleg Essayan as the
head of a diplomatic mission of Armenia in Moscow, the peace-making
initiative of ambassadors thereby has been practically destroyed. And
thus with nostalgia and grief they remember Armen Smbatyan. It
turns out, in Azerbaijanians’ opinion, if it is possible to
carry on a dialogue with the second, so with the first it is
impossible basically. Moreover, in Baku they find, that in Armenia
with displacement of Smbatyan from the post of the ambassador,
"witch-hunt", that is representatives of "peace party" – the people
participating jointly with Azerbaijan in peace-making initiatives,
has begun. Ostensibly they cannot forgive Smbatyan in participation
together with Byul-Byul oghly in peace-making mission. Brad, of course,
if we don’t say more.

At all respect for the former ambassador who sincerely wished to adjust
dialogue between societies of the contradictory parties, nevertheless
we will remind them the known truth – don’t lie by kindness. First
of all, himself. After all if his Azerbaijan colleague behaved in
Nagorno-Karabakh extremely cynically and besides periodically urged
the fellow tribesmen to take the weapon and to "liberate" Karabakh,
so Armen Smbatyan should hardly assimilate to the hero of the known
song about "the fine marchioness" and to continue the mentioned
mission. It is obvious, that the similar line of conduct of the
Azerbaijan party with Oleg Essayan is simply impossible, which Baku
understands perfectly. From here non acception of the new Armenian
ambassador in Russia, as it suits Azerbaijan having such "peace-making"
partner, who is ready to be at his bidding.

Therefore this mission has initially been doomed to a failure as did
not comprise the main thing – respect of the Azerbaijan party towards
its opponent. Don’t build world, benevolent and confidential relations
with a stone in the bosom. And if in Azerbaijan they really consider,
that the peace-making initiative has died, first of all it is necessary
to blame itself for it and only itself, instead of to try to discover
the far-fetched reasons in Oleg Essayan’s appointment. Such position
is extremely unsteady.

If Byul-Byul oghly is sincerely interested in continuation of peace
initiatives, so what prevents him to throw away haughtiness and to
continue the mission so, as it is appropriate to the civilized head of
diplomatic mission? Let with his interests, but obligatory with pure
thoughts. If Baku wishes to establish mutual reliable and legally equal
dialogue with Nagorno-Karabakh, so why it trys to co-ordinate peace
initiatives to this or that person – diplomat or another else. Similar
simple truths should be known to politicians of Azerbaijan, and it was
spoken much about it. Who wishes to hear will also hear. And however,
let’s say, they don’t celebrate mass for the deaf two times.

THORBJORN JAGLAND: ARMENIA-TURKEY RECONCILIATION MIGHT TAKE 5-20 YEARS

Armradio.am
09.02.2010 15:41

"Council of Europe is infused into Armenia-Turkey reconciliation,"
CE Secretary General Thorbjorn Jagland said in the interview with
CNNturk TV.

Jagland emphasized that he has high expectations of Turkey,
particularly in terms of country’s regional role and Armenia-Turkey
normalization process.

He also attached significance to serious steps taken towards
Armenia-Turkey reconciliation. "I have no idea which effects the
process will bring about shortly, as there are political obstacles to
it. However, first moves were made and I am confident they are not
the last. The process might take 5-20 years, however, the fact that
Armenia and Turkey are neighboring states, should be considered,"
Jagland noted.

ARMENIA, TURKEY MAY RESUME DIRECT TRADE

news.am
Feb 8 2010
Armenia

Ankara and Yerevan and negotiating over resuming the export of cement
and flour from Armenia and Turkey, Alin Ozinyan, press and Public
Relations Coordinator, Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council
(TABDC), told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Despite some progress in the Armenia-Turkey reconciliation process,
no steps have been made at the state level.

She also said that Armenian-Turkish trade is mainly unilateral now,
as imports of Armenian products in banned in Turkey.

"Armenian products are imported to Turkey only when the Armenian women
working there take some bottles of brandy or pairs of shoes with them,"
Ozinyan said.

TABDC Co-Chairman Kaan Soyak stated recently that, with the border
closed, the Armenian-Turkish trade turnover totaled U.S. $300m last
year. He pointed out that the real trade turnover is difficult to
calculate, as Armenia and Turkey do not carry out direct trade,
Georgia and Iran serving as transit states.

DAVID SHAHINYAN IS LEADING IN GROUP B OF MOSCOW OPEN 2010 CHAMPIONSHIP

PanARMENIAN.Net
06.02.2010 18:21 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Moscow is hosting Moscow Open 2010 championship,
featuring chess players in several groups.

After the 7th tour, Artur Gabrielyan (Russia) of Group A ranks 39th
in the tournament table with 4.,5 points to his score.

David Shahinyan (Armenia) of Group B is leading the championship with
7 points. Another Armenian chess player, Tigran Simonyan shares 2-14th
positions with participants who scored 6 points each.

Grand Master Lilit Galoyan (Armenia) and international master Karina
Ambardzumova (Russia) of Group C (women) have scored 5 points each
and rank 16th and 22nd on the tournament table.

Moscow Open 2010 chess championship will last till February 7.

The Moscow Open 2010 will take place January 30th – February 7th. This
year’s edition will be exceptionally strong with GM Rublevsky, GM
Motylev, GM Bologan, GM Bu Xiangzhi, GM Vescovi, GM Sasikiran, GM Le
Quang Liem, GM Iturrizaga, GM Hou Yifan, GM Sjugirov, GM Shabalov and
over 70 other grandmasters from all over the world.. The Moscow Open
festival has 1226 chess players from 30 countries, divided into A,
B, C, D, E1, and F group.

Arbiters’ seminar under FIDE patronage and Scientific-Practical
conference "Chess as INNOVATION SUBJECT in the system of education"
are held at the same time.

All tournaments are held according to the Swiss system and FIDE rules.

Total guaranteed prize fund of the Festival is 5 million rubles.

ARMENIA-TURKEY RELATIONS WAS KEY ISSUE RAISED BY DAVUTOGLU IN MUNICH

Tert.am
11:45 ~U 08.02.10

Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoglu, who is attending
the 46th Security Conference in Munich, met with U.S. Deputy Secretary
of State James Steinberg and Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs
Micheline Calmy-Rey on the sidelines of the conference, reports
Anadolu Ajansi.

According to Davutoglu, the key issue discussed during the meetings was
the latest developments in the process of normalizing Armenia-Turkey
relations.

With Calmy-Rey, Davutoglu spoke of the recent Armenian Constitutional
Court ruling on the Armenia-Turkey Protocols, while presenting Turkey’s
position on the matter. With Steinberg, Davutoglu discussed possible
developments in U.S. Congress approving a resolution that recognizes
the Armenian Genocide.

Referring to the court ruling, as well as the future of the process
of normalizing relations, the Turkish foreign minister announced that
the Turkish side is prepared to continue the process on the basis of
the previously outlined principles and agreed-upon obligations.

"We hope that the process will continue in the reasonable spirit of
the perspective we envisioned from the beginning, and as a result, a
new system of peace and stability will come about in the region useful
for the Turkish and Armenian peoples, for Turkey and Armenia, as well
as for all the people and nations in the region, and for Azerbaijan.

"We will never discontinue our efforts in that issue, and so that that
process doesn’t cease, we are resolute in the issue of continuing
in those principles which were defined from the beginning," said
Davutoglu.

OBAMA WILL SAY ‘GENOCIDE’ IF HE FAILS TO FIND A SYNONYM

Tert.am
14:23 ~U 08.02.10

Gagik Harutyunyan, the head of Noravank Scientific Educational
Foundation, has a good feeling when it comes to international
recognition of the Armenian Genocide. Genocide recognition by the US,
he considers to be inevitable.

"It is a common practice to say that they will not recognize [the
Genocide]. But everything is changing so fast," said Harutyunyan at
a press conference today, adding that the US Congress may one day
discuss the Armenian Genocide seriously.

Ruben Safrastyan, head of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the
RA National Academy of Sciences, in turn, said that the US will soon
recognize the Genocide and that it’ll be backed by law.

According to Safrastyan, US President Barack Obama, this time, will
find another synonym to use in his April 24 commemoration address.

"If he fails to find one, he’ll have no choice but to use the word
‘Genocide’," said Safrastyan.

UNRESOLVED CONFLICTS IN THE CAUCASUS ARE "THE MOST LIKELY FLASHPOINTS" IN THE EURASIA REGION

Georgian Business Week
-4feb-96bb-486bc176e329
Feb 8 2010

The newly appointed U.S. director of national intelligence, Dennis
Blair, presented the annual threat assessment report prepared by all of
the 17 national intelligence-gathering agencies to the Senate Select
Intelligence Committee. The conclusion of the American intelligence
agencies is that "Russia has been trying to put sticks in our wheels
at any opportunity," but the economic crisis "is probably causing
Russia to do some reconsidering."

Outlook for Russia

The role Moscow plays regarding issues of interest to the United States
is likely to turn on many factors, including developments on Russia’s
periphery and the degree to which Russia perceives US policies as
threatening to what its leadership sees as vital Russian interests.

There have been encouraging signs in the past year that Russia is
prepared to be more cooperative with the United States, as illustrated
by President Medvedev’s agreement last summer to support air transit
through Russia of lethal military cargo in support of coalition
operations in Afghanistan and Moscow’s willingness to engage
with the United States on constructive ways to reduce the nuclear
threat from Iran. I remain concerned, however, that Russia looks
at relations with its neighbors in the former Soviet space–an area
characterized by President Medvedev as Russia’s "zone of privileged
interests"–largely in zero-sum terms, vis a vis the United States,
potentially undermining the US-Russian bilateral relationship. Moscow,
moreover, has made it clear it expects to be consulted closely on
missile defense plans and other European security issues.

On the domestic front, Moscow faces tough policy choices in the face
of an uptick in violence in the past year in the chronically volatile
North Caucasus, which is fueled in part by a continuing insurgency,
corruption, organized crime, clan competition, endemic poverty,
radical Islamist penetration, and a lagging economy that is just
beginning to recover from the global economic crisis. Some of the
violence elsewhere in Russia, such as a deadly train bombing in late
November 2009, may be related to instability in the North Caucasus.

In addressing nationwide problems, Medvedev talks about Russia’s need
to modernize the economy, fight corruption, and move toward a more
rule-of-law-based and pluralistic political system, but he faces
formidable opposition within the entrenched elite who benefit from
the status quo. Turbulence in global energy markets was a painful
reminder to Moscow of the Russian economy’s overdependence on
energy, dramatizing the need for constructive steps toward economic
modernization and diversification. However, moving forward on issues
such as reforming Russia’s state corporations or creating conditions
more conducive to foreign investors could produce a backlash by those
forces who might lose from competition.

Potential Flashpoints in Eurasia

The unresolved conflicts of the Caucasus provide the most likely
flashpoints in the Eurasia region. Moscow’s expanded military presence
in and political-economic ties to Georgia’s separatist regions of
South Ossetia and sporadic low-level violence increase the risk of
miscalculation or overreaction leading to renewed fighting.

Although there has been progress in the past year toward Turkey-Armenia
rapprochement, this has affected the delicate relationship between
Armenia and Azerbaijan, and increases the risk of a renewed conflict
over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Economic crisis and political competition among top Ukrainian leaders
pose the greatest risk of instability in Ukraine, particularly in
connection with this year’s presidential election.

Competition between President Yushchenko and his primary rivals, Prime
Minister Tymoshenko and Party of Regions leader Yanukovych resulted
in economic reform being put on the back burner and complicated
relations with Russia over gas payments. Moreover, noncompliance with
the conditions set by international financial institutions has put
the country’s economy in further jeopardy.

The regimes of Central Asia–Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan–have been generally stable so far,
but predicting how long this will remain the case is difficult. The
region’s autocratic leadership, highly personalized politics, weak
institutions, and social inequality make predicting succession politics
difficult and increase the possibility that the process could lead to
violence or an increase in anti-US sentiment. There is also concern
about the ability of these states, especially Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
and Turkmenistan, to manage the challenges if Islamic extremism spreads
to the region from Pakistan and Afghanistan. The risks are compounded
by the economic crisis, which has resulted in reduced remittances to
the region, and by perennial food and energy shortages in some parts
of Central Asia. Competition over water, cultivable land, and ethnic
tensions could serve as sparks for conflict.

DIFFERENCES ‘NARROWING’ IN KARABAKH TALKS, SAYS LAVROV

Asbarez
Feb 8th, 2010

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

MUNICH (Combined Sources)-Armenia and Azerbaijan are narrowing their
differences over a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict sought
by international mediators, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said
over the weekend, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on Monday.

"We are trying to help Armenians and Azerbaijanis to reach a common
approach," the DPA news agency quoted him as saying at the Munich
Security Conference. "It’s obviously a very difficult issue, but
things are moving."

"The understanding is growing and the number of issues that must be
tackled by the top leaders is reducing and we are trying to help,"
Lavrov said.

Russia, which co-chairs the OSCE Minsk Group with the United States
and France, has stepped up its involvement in the Karabakh negotiating
process of late, with President Dmitry Medvedev hosting this year’s
first meeting of his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts near the
Russian city of Sochi late last month.

Lavrov said after those talks that President Serzh Sarkisian and
Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev have essentially agreed on a preamble to
the basic principles of a Karabakh settlement put forward by the
Minsk Group co-chairs. He said they also agreed to "prepare their
own concrete ideas and formulations" on the remaining sticking points.

Russia’s chief Karabakh negotiator, Yuri Merzlyakov, said in Sochi
that Baku and Yerevan will submit relevant proposals in the next two
weeks. Merzlyakov told the Azerbaijani APA news agency on Monday that
the mediators have yet to receive them.

The mediators announced earlier in January that they have developed an
"updated version" of the basic principles in an effort to facilitate
their acceptance by the parties. The refused to disclose the changes
made in the document.

In an interview with the Euronews TV channel aired last week, Aliyev
again asserted that the mediators’ peace proposals are "based on
restoration of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan." "Azerbaijan
will never agree to independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, or to any kind
of mechanisms or procedures which will eventually lead to secession,"
he said.

Armenia’s leaders insist that the proposed agreement does include
such a mechanism. They say one of the basic principles upholds the
Karabakh Armenians’ right to formalize the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s
independence in a future referendum. Officials in Yerevan have also
sought to cool talk of the signing of an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace
accord in the coming months.

Aliyev sounded more optimistic on that score. "I hope that what has
been agreed basically before and what we are planning to agree during
2010 will put an end to conflict and peace will come to the Caucasus,"
he said.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Elkhan Polukhov, reiterated
Aliyev’s remarks in a press briefing on Monday. "Azerbaijan sees
prospect in negotiations," he said, adding, however, that any
acceptable resolution for Baku depends on "what extent the Minsk
Group co-chairs are active."

Azerbaijan and Turkey have, in recent weeks, stepped up their criticism
of the Minsk Group in an apparent play to pressure the troika into
pushing for a resolution of the Karabakh conflict favoring Baku’s
position.

Aliyev’s chief foreign policy aide, Novruz Mammadov, last week accused
Russia and the West of supporting Armenia in the conflict and thereby
delaying its peaceful resolution.

The Azerbaijani official’s latest remarks mirrored Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strong criticism of the international
mediators voiced days earlier. Erdogan claimed that the Karabakh
conflict would have already been resolved had the U.S., Russia and
France "worked hard" enough. He faulted them for not putting sufficient
pressure on Armenia to end "the occupation of Azerbaijani territory."

Sergei Kapinos: Armenian women’s potential not used
06.02.2010 12:55 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Generally, Armenia is not a country where gender
issues are easily resolved, according to the head of the OSCE Office
in Yerevan.

`Armenian women do not seem constrained but there are environments
where their potential is not used, for example security system,’
Sergei Kapinos told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter. `To help women fulfill
their potential, Armenia should take up a correct social policy. Woman
is the keeper of the family hearth. But if her family experiences
problems, she will not be able to engage in public activities.’