BAKU: Azeri politicians favour military solution to Karabakh,say tal

Azeri politicians favour military solution to Karabakh, say talks “pointless”

ANS TV, Baku
30 Aug 04

[Presenter] A regular meeting of the Azerbaijani and the Armenian foreign
ministers has started in the capital of the Czech Republic, Prague. Qanira
Pasayeva looks into the prospects for the talks.

[Correspondent, over archive footage of previous meetings] Yet another round
of talks between the Azerbaijani and the Armenian foreign ministers is under
way. [Passage omitted.]

The position of certain political forces in the country is that proceeding
from Yerevan’s statements that Nagornyy Karabakh will never be Azerbaijan’s
again, Baku should issue a harshly-worded message to international organizations,
including the [OSCE Minsk Group] co-chairmen, that negotiations in their
current format are no longer possible and should therefore be suspended.

For instance, the chairman of the National Democratic Party of Azerbaijan,
Isgandar Hamidov, believes that a negotiated solution to the problem is out of
the question and that further delays in conflict settlement are playing into
the hands of Armenia.

[Hamidov, in studio] If our foreign minister goes for talks today, he has to
find courage in himself to spit in the Armenian foreign minister’s face and
come back. This will send an unequivocal message that the issue can only be
resolved militarily. The OSCE Minsk Group and others like it are all a waste of
time. The first thing all mediators say is that there have to be mutual
concessions. Then let me ask you – what kind of concessions can Azerbaijan make? We
are talking about Azerbaijani territory, about aggression against it. How can we
make compromise on that?

[Correspondent] Isgandar Hamidov believes in good prospects for a military
solution because:

[Hamidov] Azerbaijan’s economy is much stronger than Armenia’s. If military
hostilities start, the Armenian economy will fall apart. The Azerbaijani
economy is capable of waging a war.

[Correspondent] The head of Karabakh’s Azerbaijani community, Nizami
Bahmanov, is not in favour of a military option yet even though:

[Bahmanov in studio] We will liberate our lands, even at the cost of military
operations. Our president knows very well what the situation is like,
therefore he is giving preference to continuing the negotiations.

[Correspondent] However, Nizami Bahmanov does not support the idea of
dragging out the talks.

[Bahmanov] There may be three or five rounds of talks, but after that the
head of state has to make a decision. If he chooses to start the war, he does not
need to consult anyone because Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is at stake
and the country has the right to free its lands from aggression.

[Correspondent] AMIP [Azarbaycan Milli Istiqlal Party] chairman Etibar
Mammadov says the fact that Azerbaijan has resumed negotiations on the heels of such
statements from Yerevan does nothing to strengthen its international
standing.

[Mammadov in studio] The talks today are held for the sake of talks only.
They are held for reporting purposes of the Minsk Group or the foreign ministries
of certain countries, so that they could report that they have organized such
negotiations. Since the talks are pointless, it’s no use expecting any
results from them. Therefore, it’s no use conducting such talks in the first place.

[Correspondent] Etibar Mammadov thinks that prolonging negotiations and,
therefore, delaying a solution is leading to a crisis in society.

[Mammadov] There has to be a deadline, say, after one year or six months.
Open-ended and pointless negotiations only serve to deceive the population. If
those who have fought in the war and are now expressing their protest to the
Armenians are being sentenced to imprisonment, it already exposes a moral crisis
in society.

[Correspondent] The executive secretary of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party,
Ali Ahmadov, thinks that rejection of further negotiations will not bring
Azerbaijan any dividends.

[Ahmadov shown in his office] If we suspend the negotiations at this point,
the international community and the international mediators brokering a
solution to the conflict will obtain the necessary arguments to blame Azerbaijan.
Today we are talking about Armenia’s non-constructive position. I don’t want
Azerbaijan to be blamed for taking this precipitous move.

[Correspondent] Therefore, the more protracted the talks, the less confidence
there is in society that they will bear fruit.

Incidentally, tomorrow [31 August] is the 11th anniversary of the occupation
of Qubadli District.

Cost of aging populations will be felt around the world

DeseretNews.com

Sunday, August 29, 2004

Cost of aging populations will be felt around the world

By Eduardo Porter New York Times News Service

The good news is we are living longer than ever before. The bad news
is it’s going to cost us.
As global fertility rates grow more slowly and increasing prosperity
enhances life expectancy, a complicated side effect has emerged: big chunks
of the world are starting to look like geriatric wards. It is uncertain how
the world will pay for them.
A larger population of retirees, living longer, mixed with fewer young
people means that the labor force will shrink as a percentage of the total
population. With fewer people at work to support everyone else, living
standards could fall.
Aging will put stress on government finances, drawing more and more
money from budgets to pay for pensions and health care. Interest rates could
rise sharply as a result, with the old drawing down their lifelong savings,
depressing savings rates across the industrial world.
The upshot is that the bulging cohort of the elderly will probably be
forced to work well into what today is considered old age and then get
stingier pensions when they eventually retire. Moreover, their children will
have to work harder to support them.
“This is the result of desirable trends,” says Joseph Chamie, director
of the U.N. population division. “Lower mortality is very good news. But
we’ve got to adjust the system.”
Consider Japan. With half of the population over the age 41, Japan is
among the oldest countries. With one of the lowest fertility rates – 1.32
children per woman – by 2050 there will be about 110 million Japanese, down
from 127 million in 2000. And half of them will be over 53.
According to projections by economists at the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development, Japanese public spending on pensions
and health will increase by some 3 percent of the gross domestic product by
2050. (The total U.S. budget deficit, which is considered to be too large,
is 3.5 percent of the gross domestic product.)
Aging will also whittle away Japanese prosperity by cutting into the
work force. In 2000 there were almost three people of working age for every
person over 60. According to U.N. projections, by 2050 there will be less
than one. By 2050, Japan’s per capita income would be 23 percent lower than
it would be if the dependency ratio remained stable, according to the OECD
study.
This profile is far from unique. By 2050, half of all Italians and
Spaniards, for example, will be over 52 years old.
Even in the United States, the youngest of the wealthy nations, those
over 65 are expected to represent 19 percent of the population in 2030, from
12 percent in 2000, when the bulge of baby boomers reach the autumn of their
lives. Even by mid-century, when most boomers will be dead, 21 percent of
the population will be over 65.
The poor world might help ease the rich world’s plight. Broadly
speaking, higher fertility rates and lower life expectancies mean that
poorer nations are much younger than rich ones. In 2000, the median age in
India was 23. Half the population of Brazil was under 25. According to U.N.
estimates, virtually all of the increase in the world’s population – from
6.1 billion in 2000 to 8.9 billion in 2050 – will come from the so-called
developing world.
Developed countries are relying on some of this youth by investing in
factories in poorer nations and drawing workers by easing immigration
restrictions.
Yet such steps are likely to be only temporary palliatives, because
countries with the pool of workers are getting old, too. The median age of
China’s population in 2000 was 30, five years younger than that of the
United States. By 2050 it will be 43.8, four years older than America’s. And
in India, half the population will be over 38.
The countries that will most suffer from aging populations are in the
former Soviet bloc. Today, the 10 nations with the lowest rates of
population growth are, in order, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia, Bulgaria,
Ukraine, Lithuania, Russia, Hungary, Armenia and Belarus. Estonia’s
population will halve by 2050, to 657,000, and 42 percent of those left will
be more than 60 years old.
“We’ve gone from Pampers to Depends,” says Chamie.
The political battles of the future will be about who pays for them.

Ukrainian Southern Group Set to Take Control of Kiev’s Energy

Ukrainian southern group set to take control of capital city’s energy

Zerkalo Nedeli, Kiev
21 Aug 04

The owners of the Zaporizhzhya steelworks are set to take over Kiev’s
energy supply, a serious weekly has said. By agreeing to the creation
of an energy holding, Kiev mayor’s office is giving up control of the
energy supply, according to the weekly. The following is the text of
the article by Ihor Maskalevych entitled “Kyyivenerhokholding: ‘We’
the undersigned, or special features of the sewerage discharge of
current” published in the Ukrainian newspaper Zerkalo Nedeli on 21
August; subheadings are as published:

At the beginning of August a modest decision by the Kiev Council was
published. In general such documents are issued in their hundreds, but
this one will hardly get lost against their background. Because it is
a question of a complete U-turn in the city’s energy. On 24 June the
Kiev Council virtually unanimously decided to set up the
Kyyivenerhokholding Kiev Energy Holding company. The share capital of
the newly created company, according to the resolution, will receive
60 per cent plus one share in Kyyivhaz Kiev Gas , 12.73 per cent of
the stock of Kyyivenerho Kiev Energy and 67 per cent of the stock of
Kyyivodokanal Kiev Water Supply that belong to the Kiev territorial
community. The decision was supported by Mayor Oleksandr Omelchenko,
and most deputies automatically voted “as they should”. There were
only four votes against. Thus, quietly and unnoticed, the city turned
its energy policy around 180 degrees.

Pulling the blanket over itself is a fairly traditional principle of
the mayor’s office in relation to state property. The city has taken
control of everything it can and much of what, in principle, it should
not. This is because the fragility of the majority of Ukrainian state
structures has led officials in the mayor’s office to a not unfounded
conclusion that it would nevertheless not be worse than how it is done
by the SPF State Property Fund .

Among the city’s enormous number of assets, the most valuable is
undoubtedly the Kyyivenerho city energy company. There is simply
nothing similar in Ukraine. Two basic city thermal power stations
fully supply the city with electricity. In effect Kiev operates in a
system close to autonomy. And even during the hardest energy crises,
it did not experience scheduled cuts in the early 1990s and
interruptions in hot water supply. The annual volume of Kyyivenerho
sales today has reached 360m dollars.

In general, the city always fought for Kyyivenerho, and for good
reason. The city authorities wanted to add to the company slogan “Heat
and light for Kievites” the words “from city funds”. The numerous
attempts to get hold of the running of the company have seen the use
of all means – targeted privatization, erosion of the state share.

Something succeeded. Under Prime Minister Valeriy Pustovoytenko in
1997-99 the city received the 12.73 per cent. Under Viktor Yushchenko
in 2000-01 it got both major thermal power stations. What is more, for
a whole week an instruction was in force on transferring to the city
the longed-for 50 per cent of the stock. But then everything
ended. The city could not accept it for a long time and countless
letters were written to the very highest instances. At times it seemed
that they were on the verge of winning. But the train left. And, as is
now clear, forever.

Over the past few years the mayor’s office has been running the state
share in Kyyivenerho, but then it had to be handed over to the SPF. In
principle that is not too awful – the SPF cannot run anything and does
not endeavour to. But it means that the package can be put up for
sale. From time to time in the corridors of the Cabinet of Ministers
there were indeed floated ideas of selling either the entire state
share in Kyyivenerho or half of it. Sometimes the EBRD also came with
that idea to the government.

On the one hand, such a step would certainly bring in a very decent
amount of money. The potential value of such a package amounts to many
millions of dollars. But on the other hand, a new investor, especially
a Western one, means entirely different rules of the game. Not to
mention the fact that our Western friends have never suffered from
excessive modesty in revenue planning. And the only attempt to attract
foreign investments into the city’s power engineering cannot in any
way be called successful.

The scheme to modernize Darnytsya thermal power station with the help
of Canada’s Northland Power turned into a fiasco. The Canadians have
been sitting on the power station for eight years now and have not had
the honour of investing not only the promised 150m dollars, but not
even one million. Omelchenko’s attitude to them has long been openly
contemptuous. At the same time, Kyyivenerho, albeit with problems, is
developing its own project with money from the World Bank.

And indeed the privatization of the neighbouring Kyyivoblenerho has
not at all led to a flow of investments into the regional energy
company. At the same time, the charges that even before were higher
than city charges, increased by another 50 per cent.

Pulling the cable across

The city that had been distracted with mergers and absorbtions
actively strove to get everything at once, but it obviously
underestimated threats of a different nature. For example, the
privatization of Kyyivenerho took place with a considerable dispersal
of shares. Under all forms of preferential subscription no more nor
less than 37.3 per cent of them went. This is noticeably more than the
traditional 25 per cent. To a large extent this was explained by the
position of the management of the company headed by Ivan
Plachkov. Credit where credit is due – the top management of
Kyyivenerho personally received very modest share packages. Neither
was there any discernible self-purchase “for the management”. Even
checks by the prosecutor’s office, according to which there were
originally several criminal cases instituted, did not discover
anything especially “dreadful”. Staff at the energy company had indeed
received their share packages and indeed sold them independently. It
is a good thing that there were opportunities and more than enough
firms buying up the shares. One could get a dollar and more for a
20-kopeck share. So the staff received not a bad additional source of
income.

In time the boom died down, but there is still interest in the
shares. In the 2000-03 period individuals bought 12.2m
shares. Naturally, they were bought up not just like that. The
concentration of packages soon became completely evident. The people
behind it were also discovered. The names of shareholders of the
Shelton oil trader firm and Ukrinbank – Serhiy Kryvosheya and Serhiy
Rys – started to surface, as did that of their business partner and
Green Party comrade, Vasyl Khmelnytskyy. Precisely over that period
the “green wave” rapidly took Zaporizhstal Zaporizhzhya-based
steelworks out of the hands of the state.

The aim with Kyyivenerho was also examined absolutely precisely –
first buy a blocking stake and then wait and see. Nobody took any
special counter-measures. First, the shares were expensive, and
self-purchase would require substantial resources. Second, the city
was sure that it would soon get a controlling stake by barter and the
problem would go away of itself. As a result, by 2001 the blocking
stake was successfully bought. Estimates put the cost of that to the
purchasers at 26m-28m dollars.

At exactly the same time, the city’s plans to swap the company shares
for buildings belonging to the Kiev community became entirely
illusory. In addition, by that time the city had pulled in so many
facilities that it clearly did not know what to do with them.

What is more, the campaign to strengthen Kyyivenerho by means of
transferring to it the running of heat networks, a rubbish burning
plant and so forth continued. It would be a big exaggeration to say
that everything went smoothly. A large part of the property being
acquired was in a wretched state.

At that time the last attempt was made to erode the state package in
the company. In 2001 the mayor’s office approved a decision to
increase the authorized capital by 30 per cent (i.e. by 8m
hryvnyas). Considering the fact that the energy company’s authorized
capital is tiny – only 27.1m hryvnyas – this automatically transformed
the state package from a controlling one into a 38 per cent one. Since
at that time the city was managing the state stake, its representative
naturally voted in favour. But… ellipsis as published Private
investors first showed their teeth and voted against. An attempt to
postpone the meeting by a month and coordinate positions on the basic
question produced little. The additional share issue failed.

And although in revenge not one representative of the “green oil
bankers” got on to the management bodies of Kyyivenerho, it became
clear that it would not be possible to ignore their interests. On the
other hand, it is doubtful that the mayor’s office had precisely
calculated how many more various “consideration of interests” it would
have to face. Thus, already in the following year it was forced to
agree the fate of the city’s bakery industry with the same group. The
Fininvesthrup and Haron companies that are friendly with the owners of
Zaporizhstal obtained 49 per cent of the Khlib Kyyiva closed
joint-stock company that is being set up on the basis of Kyyivmlyn)
and Kyyivkhlib. Then another firm that is friendly with the
Zaporizhzhya people, Ukrfinkom, moved into the holy of holies of the
city administration – the Khreshchatyk Bank and gradually started to
build up its share package.

The process reached its logical conclusion in summer this
year. According to the results of the bank’s third additional share
issue, the proportion of Ukrfinkom and structures close to it exceeds
40 per cent of the stock. In general, the Zaporizhstal people have
actively taken over the city, including as a big market for metal. And
although Kryvosheya and Rys later left “city” projects, they were
successfully replaced by Andriy Ivanov (chairman of Zaporizhstal
supervisory board) and Khmelnytskyy.

To be fair, it should be said that the “green” group always professed
the principle of “being, not seeming”, and did not feel the slightest
pull towards publicity. Mentions of it were limited either to football
or light charity. In politics, at the 2002 elections Zaporizhstal was
smart enough to finance unsuccessfully two parties simultaneously. And
then – silence.

It is amusing that a couple of years ago tracks of the Zaporizhzhya
metallurgists were spotted in Armenia. The biggest shareholder in
Zaporizhstal, Midland Resources Holding, bought 100 per cent of local
distribution networks. During the competition, the company said that
it owned, among other things, a blocking stake in
Kyyivenerho. However, they later amended that figure to 12 per
cent. In general, that was the truth.

We remind you that the owners of Zaporizhstal are divided into two
groups. Part of them, historically linked with the Zakhid-Rezerv
company, are represented by the afore-mentioned Messrs Ivanov and
Khmelnytskyy, as well as by Ihor Dvoretskyy (Zaporizhzhya Industrial
Bank). The other part, “the Midland group” is represented by Eduard
Shyfrin (Metallurgical Centre open joint-stock company – the Kiev
office of Midland is actually located at its address) and a Canadian,
(?Alexander Schneider). These shareholders are more oriented towards
foreign purchases. And they are acquiring property in Ukraine fairly
actively, since they have direct access to the president Leonid Kuchma
. Thus they recently acquired the Kremenchuk steel rolling
plant. Companies are being bought up in Russia, Poland, Montenegro and
Armenia.

It is interesting that there has recently been a clear strengthening
of Midland’s position at Zaporizhstal – at any rate two offshore
companies connected with it already control 60 per cent of the plant’s
shares.

For now these two groups of shareholders live in complete harmony. It
is not ruled out that some shareholders will face complete
naturalization in Kiev. Work on that is already being carried
out. And, unlike the United Social Democrats of presidential
administration head Viktor Medvedchuk , who, to put it mildly, have
complex relations with Mr Omelchenko, the Zaporizhzhya people are
fully signed up to local realities. They are correct and moderately
aggressive, and so people are already used to them.

Exploitation of gigantomania

May this excursion into the history of the “Zaporizhzhya group” not be
a digression from the theme. For it is precisely for this reason that
the creation of Kyyivenerhokholding is now taking place. The most
amusing aspect is that the pull of Mr Omelchenko is being successfully
exploited here in the creation of municipal super-structures. The
actual idea of an energy holding on the basis of the capital’s
property hovered in the city administration for several years now. For
that reason, many city deputies and officials simply failed to
understand that there was extremely little in common between what was
proposed, say, in 2002 and the present version.

All the more so in that the mayor’s office was frankly scared by the
situation with the creation of former First Deputy Prime Minister Oleh
Dubyna’s Energy Company of Ukraine ECU . The frantic attempts to
prevent Kyyivenerho joining it got nowhere.

Indeed, there was no point in hoping. Mr Dubyna had fought too
fiercely even for completely “deadbeat” thermal power stations in the
regions to give up the best bit of the country’s power engineering. In
other words, a real prospect had appeared for the city that control of
Kyyivenerho would be enacted not at all from 34 Khreshchatyk Street
mayor’s office . Even the present fate of the ECU is not that
cloudless. It was the prospect of losing control that prompted the
Kiev Council’s June decision. But such medicine may well turn out to
be worse than the disease.

The original plans to set up the company looked like this. The city
package of 12.73 per cent was to be merged with shares of private
investors amounting altogether to 28 per cent. The 40-per-cent stake
obtained would make it possible, if necessary, reliably to neutralize
any external pretensions. At the same time, shares in Kyyivvodokanal
water supply are being sold (33 per cent) and Kyyivhaz (up to 40 per
cent).

Former Zaporizhzhya governor and one-time deputy prime minister for
energy Volodymyr Kuratchenko will head the company. He has recently
been the head of Kiev’s Vodokanal… ellipsis as published

The Zaporizhzhya people laid claim to 49.999 per cent in the company
being set up, but Omelchenko insisted on 39 per cent. In other words,
the idea is that the city can run it itself.

However, practice shows that officials will far from always “taxi”
with such a package. Businessmen as a minimum are no stupider than
they are, and far more mobile. And indeed their incentive is
higher. If anyone thinks that they are ready to part with their stake
for no good reason, they are greatly mistaken.

Incidentally, talking about the stake, its current value according to
stock market quotes, amounts to 25m dollars. However, when there was
talk of selling, completely different figures were quoted of the order
of 68m-70m dollars. So far as is known, at negotiations the talk was
about selling two approximately equal stakes that reflect the
distribution of the assets of Zaporizhstal shareholders. What is more,
precisely for the same amount (400m hryvnyas) the city was prepared in
principle to buy the twice as large state-controlled stake (50 per
cent) from the SPF.

However, most likely it will not get as far as a sale. In that case
the payment will be made precisely in securities, i.e. in the
self-same shares in Kyyivenerho. And perhaps in the freshly bought
shares in Kyyivhaz. The shareholders will hardly come off losers –
instead of 28 per cent of shares in Kyyivenerho, they will get 40 per
cent of a bigger holding. And access to control of colossal resources.

There is so far little belief in the declared goal of attracting
investments. However, according to the first version, it was a
question of attracting about 15m-20m dollars. Which is pitifully
little compared with the requirements of the city’s municipal
economy. For example, modernization of the water supply over the next
six to seven years alone will require 1.9bn hryvnyas. Hundreds of
millions of hryvnyas of investment are needed for Kyyivenerho and
Kyyivhaz. All the more so in that it is still not sure that the Kiev
energy monster being set up will turn out to be viable.

That capacious word “We”

Indeed the actual process of creating Kyyivenerhokholding is
completely non-transparent. After all, to call a spade a spade, it is
a question of transferring property worth a huge amount of money to a
private structure. Forever, what is more… ellipsis as published The
operation being conducted affects the interests of city residents both
on the right bank of the Dnieper and on the left. And at the very
least they deserve to know something more about the aims and plans of
the city authorities. At present it is not even known who thought up
all this.

Things have reached the point of jokes. When in June deputies were
given the plan for the new holding, two sides of the process figured
in it – the Kiev administration and a second group modestly calling
itself “WE”. It is these “we” who were to gain 39 per cent of the
city’s energy infrastructure. Against this background, last year’s
lease for 49 years of the Odessa water supply to the Infoks company
that caused no little scandal there looks almost like a model of
transparency. There they at least presented a plan – to attract 700m
hryvnyas of investment over seven years. The Ukrainian anti-monopoly
committee issued an unflattering statement regarding this. But after
all, Kiev would seem to be a somewhat bigger and richer city.

The author has nothing against Zaporizhstal or whoever is meant there
by the word “we”. But is it not possible to be more specific – who,
why, how much and what will there be? There should be other goals
apart from a reasonable desire to restrict the influence of Dubyna and
provide employment for Kuratchenko. Over recent years the country had
more than enough of playing games with nameless investors from
offshore zones. If we even nominally intend to join Europe, perhaps we
should recall that the word “we” as a rule does not mean offshore
representatives but somewhat broader sections of the
population. Townsfolk, for example.

Aliev: Karabakh Must Remain Azerbaijan’s

Radio Free Europe, Czech Republic
Aug 25 2004

Aliev: Karabakh Must Remain Azerbaijan’s

25 August 2004 — Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliev today reiterated
that the breakaway ethnic Armenian province of Nagorno-Karabakh must
remain a part of his country.

Aliev made the comments in Berlin, where he met with German
Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. Aliev said ethnic Armenians are welcome
to live in Azerbaijan, but only under the control of the central
government.

Schroeder said at a news conference after their meeting that he and
Aliev agree the dispute over the enclave should be resolved
peacefully:

“The president (Aliev) and I agree that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
should be resolved by political means, and Germany will continue to
support your (Aliev’s) efforts [to reach a political settlement]
within the framework of the OSCE [Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe],” Schroeder said.

Armenian-backed forces won control of Nagorno-Karabakh after fighting
that ended with a 1994 cease-fire. Internationally mediated efforts
have so far failed to find a final settlement for the
territory, which is still claimed by Azerbaijan.

US troop redeployment sparks rumors on Azeri base

ISN, Switzerland
Aug 24 2004

US troop redeployment sparks rumors on Azeri base 24.08.2004

News that the US is planning a massive redeployment of its armed
forces has Azeris wondering whether their country will soon host US
troops.

By Fariz Ismailzade for EurasiaNet

News that the US is planning a massive redeployment of its armed
forces has Azeris wondering whether their country will soon host US
troops. Azeri officials are coy on the base question, prompting some
local political analysts to say Baku is trying to leverage the issue
to achieve a breakthrough on the stalled talks on a Nagorno-Karabakh
peace settlement. Speculation over whether the US would establish a
military base in Azerbaijan began almost immediately after US leaders
announced 16 August that up 70’000 US troops in Europe and East Asia
would be redeployed. Most US soldiers appear headed back to the US,
but some will staff new facilities, in keeping with the Pentagon’s
desire to create a more mobile armed forces. A few days before the
announcement, US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visited Baku
for hastily arranged talks. The Azeri government provided only a
vague description about the discussions. However, Zerkalo, an
independent daily newspaper, claimed that a tentative base deal had
been reached. “Moreover, the USA is interested in modernizing …
military airfields in Azerbaijan,” Zerkalo reported on 17 August,
without citing a source. Azeri media have also seized on recent
comments attributed to General Charles Wald, the deputy commander for
US forces in Europe, who reportedly indicated that US defense
officials were considering Azerbaijan, Uganda, and the island state
of Sao Tome as potential host sites for US rapid deployment forces.
According to the Azeri reports, the US is seeking a base in
Azerbaijan to ensure the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
and to monitor developments in Iran, which Washington believes is
working hard to develop nuclear weapons.

Fait accompli
While some Azerbaijani media outlets are treating a US base as a fait
accompli, the only public statements on the issue by Azeri officials
have been non-committal. Foreign Minister Eldar Mammadyarov has
acknowledged that talks are on-going, but he stressed on 19 August
that “it is naive to think that military bases can be set up
overnight”. Some analysts say it wasn’t coincidental that Mammadyarov
made the statement in Moscow. Russia is on record as opposing any US
redeployment that would place US troops in the formerly Communist
sphere, and a few observers believe the potential US base is at the
center of a geopolitical game being played by Baku. The objective,
from Baku’s viewpoint, is to secure increased political support for a
Karabakh peace settlement that is to Azerbaijan’s liking. Azerbaijan
has insisted that any settlement leave the region under Baku’s
jurisdiction. Azeri officials have grown restless in recent months
over the lack of progress in the peace talks. Mammadyarov said in a
19 August television interview that the Karabakh question topped his
agenda during talks with Russian leaders in Moscow. Some in Baku
believe Russia, given Moscow’s close strategic relationship with
Armenia, is the key to achieving the desired breakthrough on
Karabakh. A trade-off involving Azerbaijan’s rejection of a US base,
effectively in return for greater Russian support for Baku in the
Karabakh peace process, could possibly pressure Armenia into
softening its Karabakh negotiating position.

A diplomatic bargaining chip
Some pundits say Mammadyarov’s attempt to use the base issue as a
diplomatic bargaining chip has so far failed. They note that both
Russia and the US have given no public indication of shifting their
existing positions on the Karabakh peace process. Given the apparent
failure of what some in Baku describe as Azerbaijan’s base “bluff”,
officials are now left to weigh the potential merits and liabilities
of playing host to US troops. Political analyst Rauf Mirqadirov,
writing in an analysis published 19 August analysis by Zerkalo,
examined the pros and cons of the base issue. On the plus side,
Mirqadirov said the presence of US forces would facilitate rapid
economic development in the region. He also downplayed the
possibility of Russian retaliation, arguing that Moscow “is not ready
for global confrontation with the United States”. Mirqadirov,
however, envisioned several potential negatives arising out of a
possible basing arrangement. A US presence, for example, could make
Azerbaijan a target of Islamic militant action. It could also
potentially limit Azerbaijan’s options in striving to achieve its
Karabakh settlement objectives. In addition, Mirqadirov voiced
concern about the possibility of Azerbaijan becoming embroiled in the
long-running feud between the US and Iran. “The Americans do not rule
out that Iran is their future target,” Mirqadirov said. “If all these
statements are made in order to frighten Tehran – then that’s one
thing. But if the Americans start another mess – moreover, one along
our border – then Azerbaijan, irrespective of its wishes, will be
dragged into this conflict.” Azeris interviewed at random on the
streets of Baku offered a mixed view on the base issue. “We need to
see, first, what is our benefit from these bases. Will they help us
in the war with Armenia?” said Nargiz, a university student. Niyazi,
an employee at a trading house, suggested an American troop presence
would “only bring us trouble with Iran.” Others, however, said US
troops would help defend against potential encroachment by Iran or
Russia against Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.

Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance writer on Caucasus politics and
economics. He has obtained his masters degree from the Washington
University in St. Louis and is currently based in Baku.
EurasiaNet ()provides information and analysis
about political, economic, environmental, and social developments in
the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well as in Russia,
the Middle East, and Southwest Asia. The website presents a variety
of perspectives on contemporary developments, utilizing a network of
correspondents based both in the West and in the region. The aim of
EurasiaNet is to promote informed decision making among policy
makers, as well as broadening interest in the region among the
general public. EurasiaNet is operated by the Central Eurasia Project
of the Open Society Institute.

www.eurasianet.org

One nation, one culture festival over

ArmenPress
Aug 23 2004

ONE NATION, ONE CULTURE FESTIVAL OVER

YEREVAN, AUGUST 23, ARMENPRESS: First pan Armenian festival “One
Nation, One Culture” which launched on Aug 14 under the high auspices
of president Kocharian concluded yesterday at Republic Square with
festivities.
Symphonic band of National Academic Theater of Opera and Ballet
after Al Spendarian, different groups from Armenia and Diaspora,
individual players performed during the closing ceremony. Armenian
prime minister Andranik Margarian greeted the present and underscored
the role of festival in deepening Armenian-Diaspora ties in his
speech. Assistant to Armenian president Vigen Sargssian said that it
is expected to hold such festivals once in four or even two years.
The festival was sponsored by Hayastan All Armenian fund and One
Nation, One Culture fund. More than 1500 people of art from USA,
Australia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, Italy, Poland, Canada, Lebanon,
Russia, Syria, Georgia, France, Ukraine as well as Nagorno Karabagh
and Armenia participated. As special guests, some 500 well known
people of art were in Armenia during the days of the festival.
Dozens of performances, poetry evening days, exhibition and
exhibition sales, concerts and other events were held on the
sidelines of the festival. Each day of the festival was marked by
some symbolic name – My Armenia, Day of Armenian Song, Day of
Armenian Writing and Literature, Day of Theater, Day of Armenian
Dance, Day of Armenian Classical Music and so on.

Foreign Banks in Russia

Agency WPS
Banking and stock exchange. Finance. Economics (Russia)
August 19, 2004, Thursday

The article has been published about performance of foreign banks in
Russia

Although the Russian law doesn’t prohibit foreign banks from being
present in the Russian market in the form of branches, it is
practically impossible to get permission of the CB. The last branch
of a foreign bank – Armenian Anelik – had to re-register into the
subsidiary Russian bank last year under the order of the CB. As a
result, foreign banks can work in Russia only in the form of Russian
companies. They are either subsidiaries of large western banks as
Citibank or Raiffeisenbank, or are founded by a few shareholders as
KMB-bank. Its shareholders are the EBRD, Soros Fund, German Company
of Investments and Development and the Triodos-Doen fund
(Netherlands). All these banks are fully owned by foreigners.
However, structure of ownership can be mixed. In the International
Moscow Bank, German Hipo Vereinsbank owns a 43% stake, Finnish Nordea
Bank – 22%, EBRD – 10%, and 22% are controlled by the Bank of Russia.
20% are owned by the French BCEN-Eurobank (the CB controls some 80%
of its shares) and 2% are owned by Sberbank (the CB has a 63% stake
in it).

Advantage of subsidiaries of large foreign banks is that any decision
takes much less time to be coordinated: there is only one shareholder
– mother company. This is especially important when the bank faces
difficulties. Thus, during the 1998 crisis, practically all banks,
including foreign ones, faced problems with capitalization.
“Subsidiaries of foreign banks, unlike Russian credit organizations,
were not embarrassed to show their losses,” comments Mikhail
Matovnikov, deputy director of the rating agency Moody’s-Interfax.
“However, mother companies didn’t leave them in trouble. They
allocated funds quite quickly, so problem with capital of subsidiary
banks was resolved in the first – maximum second quarter of 1999.”

For example, losses incurred by Raiffeisenbank, amounted to over 1.5
billion not denominated rubles, however, capital increased again very
quickly. “Large foreign banks value their name,” believes Mr.
Chetverikov, director of the rating agency NAUFOR. “And if a bank
faces serious problems, the mother company is very likely to allocate
enough resources at low interest to cover bank’s liabilities and
restore efficiency.”

Russian foreign banks with mixed structure have also overcome crisis.
However, it took them much longer to restore capital: all
shareholders should gather, coordinate who will contribute what
amount to the bank (as a rule, proportionally to number of shares).
Additionally, some bank owners can wish to sell their stake, which
will also take time. As a result, procedure can take a year, and
this, for example, was the case with the IMB, which found itself on
the verge of bankruptcy during the crisis. However, in a year, it
managed to restore its capital through contributions of shareholders.

Banks with more than one shareholder are more independent from their
owners because their general meetings are held seldom and only on
important strategic issues. Indeed, it would be strange to gather all
owners to approve routine decisions of top management. Very often
banks with mixed structure of ownership are created by foreign credit
institutions, which want to be present in the market of a different
country, but they don’t want to found their own subsidiary. In this
case, a foreign company has a representative on the bank’s board of
directors, it can influence policy of a credit organization and
invest into enterprises that are located at the territory of the
country.

Some foreign banks pursue aggressive strategy. Beginning with 1999,
they started to actively develop the Russian market – first of all,
subsidiaries of large western banks. Thus, for example,
Raiffeisenbank was one of the first western banks to deal with retail
– for example, work with private clients (before the crisis, foreign
banks practically didn’t work with retail clients in Russia).
“Raiffeisenbank had to be the first to develop this niche because it
didn’t have its guaranteed “bread,” as, for example, Citibank,”
explains Mikhail Matovnikov. “That is because there are quite few
Austrian companies in Russia. So, first, it had to actively establish
cooperation with Russian companies and then develop retail.” Thus,
the bank assumed increased risks, but it could justify its existence
in Russia.

Currently, Raiffeisenbank has 10 additional offices in Moscow and a
branch in St. Petersburg. According to results of last year, the bank
ranks 12th among all Russian banks by size of assets. Within last
year, credit portfolio added 38% and volume of loans granted to
private clients in 2003 increased more than five times and beat $142
million. Raiffeisenbank has become one of the first foreign banks to
announce expansion into the regions. In autumn of this year, a branch
will be opened in Yekaterinburg and then – in Nizhny Novgorod and
Samara. According to Michel Perhirin, chairman of Raiffeisenbank
board, by June 2006, the bank will open at least 10 regional
branches. “Local employees will work at departments servicing local
clients. And we will work not only with largest and private clients,
but will also service medium size companies and small business.”

Similar strategy of universalization is favored by Citibank and the
IMB. These banks are in fact major competitors of Raiffeisenbank
among foreign banks. French bank Societe Generale Vostok expressed
its intention to develop all sides of banking business, including
retail.

As for differences of business of foreign subsidiaries and their
mother companies, Mr. Chetverikov believes difference is drastic.
According to him, in the West, large banks are horizontally
integrated companies. One brand unites various business subdivisions,
which don’t have a common budget. For example, one works with private
clients and the other works with corporate clients. “Representatives
of each block are members of the board of directors and report
performance results to chairman Mr. Chetverikov,” explains Mr.
Chetverikov. “This is a more flexible management structure, it has
its budget and its strategy. It organizes people.” And practically
all Russian banks and subsidiaries of foreign banks are vertically
integrated companies. “In such companies everybody is concerned that
his budget is not cut within the total budget and it complicates
work,” believes Mr. Chetverikov.

Some banks, which have come to Russia, don’t try to become universal:
their objective is to take up certain niche in the market. The
brightest example of a credit organization that implements a certain
mission is KMB-bank. It has already funded over 105,000 projects to a
total sum of $890 million. “In our development, we made major
emphasis on regional expansion,” said Ms. Cherkasova, director of the
business department at KMB-bank. “Most foreign banks are currently
operating in Moscow region only, while our bank works in 22 regions.”

Another foreign bank to choose a narrow strategy is Home Credit and
Finance Bank (HCFB). It was founded in February 2002 by acquiring a
controlling stake in Tekhnopolis Russian bank. The major participant
is Czech Home Credit Finance (a member of the international group of
companies PPF), which owns over 99% stake in the bank’s charter
capital. Major trend of work of HCFB is consumer express credits.
Missionary credit organizations are also Delta-credit bank. It deals
with mortgage crediting and last week it replaced shareholders of
Delta-bank, which, like KMB specializes in small and medium business.

A considerable part of foreign banks pursue passive policy. For
example, Turkish Finansbank and Garanti Bank do nothing else apart
from servicing Turkish construction and trading companies (for
example, Ramstor chain). The Bank of China services Chinese
entrepreneurs and tourists who come to Russia. Such banks are
secretive and shut-in. For example, management of the Bank of China
flatly declined to talk with F, without giving any reasons for
refusal. And if we go to the office of the Bank of China, which is
located in one of Moscow business centers, all information is in
Chinese only, which shuts out Russian clients. “The bank hasn’t at
all grown during the time of its operation in our country,” comments
Mr. Chetverikov. “And we have rather few Chinese enterprises, the
major function of the bank is to simplify the process of tourists’
money transfers.”

As for the Japanese Michinoku Bank, its position in the Russian
banking sector is not clear either. “The bank announced that it would
work with private clients as well, but it is difficult yet to talk
about its success in the Russian market,” explained Mikhail
Matovnikov. “And if we take into account that economic relations with
Japan are quite peculiar because of Kuril islands problem, servicing
of Japanese companies operating in Russia is very limited.”

Such institutions assume a wait-and-see attitude. “They observe the
Russian banking market and wait for conditions to be more favorable
for them,” says Mr. Chetverikov. “Their shareholders can afford to
have an unprofitable bank in Russia.”

With a long-term view, banks with foreign capital have a considerable
advantage before Russian credit organizations – they can afford to
work without a profit and even be unprofitable for a few years. This
was the case with practically all subsidiaries of foreign banks,
including Raiffeisenbank and Citibank. If the mother company is
interested in business development in a specific market, it will fund
its subsidiary bank, taking into account prospects of its development
and not immediate result. At the same time, the bank will
systematically train its employees, introduce technologies and
develop infrastructure. Russian banks have no “mother” to help with
cheap foreign funding and give its “daughter company” advice on what
kind of business is more promising. “In our country, we found a bank
and want profit this year,” says Mr. Matovnikov. “Western owners give
their subsidiary in Russia 5 or even 10 years to develop their bank
without demanding profit. Profit will come later, the bank should win
its market share first.” As a result, foreign banks can assume a more
fundamental approach while they develop their business. Additionally,
subsidiary banks come with known and well-advertised name.

Despite all possible advantages, sometimes, foreign banks offer their
services on conditions comparable with Russian banks. For example,
terms on express loans at HCFB and Russian Standard Bank and Pervoe
O.V.K. are very similar, although HCFB could have come up with a more
attractive offer for clients thanks to cheap foreign money. The
foreign bank declined to comment on this situation. However, experts
believe that the bank doesn’t slash interest rates because its
network and infrastructure are not developed yet. And if the bank
improves crediting conditions, it won’t cope with inflow of clients.
However, when it reaches certain development level, for example in
regions, tough price wars can start. However, in any case, the bank
is first of all focused on profit and will take into account high
risks of such crediting. Thus, drastic reduction in rates is not
likely to take place.

Since recently the Russian Standard has something to oppose to HCFB.
Currently, a 50% stake in Russian Standard is owned by Cetelem – a
subsidiary structure of the French BNP-Paribas. The French bank has a
Russian subsidiary, but its business is badly developed. BNP-Paribas
explained that the group tried to develop business in retail banking,
but failed and now, with Russian Standard, such possibilities
emerged. Experts suggest that Russian Standard will continue working
under its name, which is “widely recognized in Russia.”

According to experts, Russian banks won’t be able to seriously crowd
Russian banks. Competition is mostly possible in servicing private
clients and small business because large companies are taken already.
“Presence in the region is not profitable for banks and most foreign
banks don’t have branches even in large Russian cities,” says Mr.
Mamontov, president of the MICEX. “And large corporations have their
own “pocket” banks.”

According to Michel Perhirin from Raiffeisenbank, after entering the
WTO, Russia won’t lose sovereignty in the banking system as it was
the case in Eastern Europe (WTO members can’t limit access of foreign
companies to their territory). “Corporate clients of many Russian
banks will be served there because they are loyal to their owners.
And it is not easy for foreigners to buy ready networks – there are
few offers, the banking system is strongly segmented.”

Additionally, share of foreign capital in the Russian banking system
doesn’t increase – it stays within 5-6% and now it is shrinking,
experts say. Back in November 2002, the CB abolished the quote for
participation of foreign capital in the Russian banking system (it
amounted to 12%) because it decided that limitation makes no sense.

Armenian Official Briefs on Armenian Economy at National Press Club

PRESS RELEASE
August 13, 2004
Embassy of the Republic of Armenia
2225 R Street, NW, Washington, DC, 20008
Tel: 202-319-1976, x. 348; Fax: 202-319-2982
Email: [email protected]; Web:

Armenian Official Briefs on Armenian Economy at National Press Club

On August 10, 2004, the National Press Club in Washington, DC hosted a news
conference by Vahram Nercissiantz, Chief Economic Adviser to the President
of Armenia, who presented Armenia’s current social and economic development,
his vision for regional cooperation, and expressed his appreciation for
Armenia’s inclusion in the Millennium Challenge Account (MCA). In drawing a
historical account of Armenia’s irreversible achievements in making
political and economic reforms since independence, Mr. Nercissiantz
described the political and philosophical foundations of the Armenian
reforms, and the strategic directions of the transition, emphasizing the
commitment of the Armenian authorities to further development of liberal
democracy and market economy in Armenia. He concluded by presenting the
Armenian government’s strategy for sustaining high rates of economic growth
and reducing poverty in Armenia.

In a vigorous Q&A that followed his presentation, Mr. Nercissiantz addressed
issues ranging from Armenian-Turkish relations to details of the MCA process
in Armenia. He reiterated that the removal of the Turkish blockade and
subsequent opening of the Armenian-Turkish border would greatly benefit both
Turkey and Armenia, as well as neighboring countries of South Caucasus by
promoting greater regional cooperation and stability. Mr. Nercissiantz, who
is ex officio Deputy Chairperson of the Board of Trustees of the Armenian
Program of the Millennium Challenge Account, explained that the Armenian
government had held extensive consultations with Armenian NGO’s, groups of
experts and other concerned parties, both at national and local levels, to
solicit advice and develop a public awareness on the strategic directions
for developmental assistance under the terms of MCA. Addressing recent
articles in the Washington Post that had drawn an unbalanced and inaccurate
portrayal of Armenia’s economy, he said that Armenia’s progress was real and
emphasized the determination of the government and the people of Armenia to
seriously tackle the social and economic challenges facing Armenia today.

For full text of Vahram Nercissiantz’s presentation, please visit the
Embassy of Armenia website:

http://www.armeniaemb.org/BusinessEconomy/Nercissiantz.htm
www.armeniaemb.org

Glendale: YMCA to aid in listening to hotline calls

Los Angeles Daily News, CA
Aug 11 2004

YMCA to aid in listening to hotline calls

Help provided in Armenian

By Naush Boghossian
Staff Writer

GLENDALE — The Glendale YWCA has long served English-language
speakers who have called Los Angeles County’s Domestic Violence
Hotline, but it is now reaching out to Armenians across the county
who need their help.
Anybody in the county who calls the hotline — (800) 978-3600 — and
chooses to receive assistance in Armenian will be routed to the YWCA.

The 24-hour hotline, which is administered by the District Attorney’s
Office, struck a partnership with the Glendale YWCA to take calls in
Armenian in an effort to expand the number of languages the hotline
serves.

“We don’t want language to be a barrier when somebody wants
assistance. We want them to be able to contact the hotline regardless
of the language they speak and be able to talk to somebody live who
can help them find safety and shelter,” said Mark Delgado, field
deputy for the district attorney’s bureau of crime prevention and
youth services.

The YWCA was selected because the city of Glendale has the largest
Armenian population in the United States.

The hotline also began serving callers Monday in Tagalog, Khmer,
Japanese and Thai, but translators for those languages will be based
in other areas.

Lida Soulikhan, the program coordinator for the YWCA’s domestic
violence outreach, said the hotline’s service is very important,
because the lack of English skills is a barrier for immigrants
seeking help.

“When people talk in your own language, it’s a key to your heart —
especially for Armenians — and you trust them better and start
opening up to them,” she said.

And there are many Armenians in Los Angeles County who are not
getting the help they need, Soulikhan said.

“We know that there is a huge amount of domestic violence, but we
have to bring down that cultural wall,” she said. “The cultural
belief for Armenians stops them from sharing what’s happening within
their four walls. They don’t know these services, but when it’s
explained to them in Armenian it makes a huge difference.”

The hotline has served callers in English, Spanish, Korean,
Vietnamese Mandarin and Cantonese seven days a week, receiving an
average of 394 calls a month during its first year. Last year, the
hotline received more than 1,350 calls a month.

The annual cost of operating the hotline is $10,000, which is funded
by private donations. Donations can be made payable to the California
Community Foundation, attention D.A. Victim and Crime Prevention
Initiatives, 445 S. Figueroa St., 34th floor, Los Angeles, CA 90071.

City will host R.I. film fes

PawtucketTimes.com
Top Stories

City will host R.I. film fest

Joel Furfari 08/09/2004

PAWTUCKET — For the first time since its inception, the Rhode Island
International Film Festival is coming to Pawtucket.

The 100-seat theater inside the Blackstone Valley Visitors Center, 175 Main
St., will host a series of screenings this week as the city plays host to
the festival for the first time.

Herb Weiss, the city’s cultural affairs officer, said officials want to
bring more films into the theater.

“It’s underutilized right now and we’re in discussion with some groups to
see if we can begin bringing in more screenings to the theater,” he said.

Film buffs will be in for a treat this week: The theater will host
screenings on Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday. The film festival’s gala
opening is Tuesday.

At 8 p.m. on Wednesday, the film “Parallel Lines” will be screened in
Pawtucket. The documentary, directed by Nina Davenport, covers a road trip
across the United States in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
There will also be a screening of Bruce Dellis’ short filmLincoln: A Life
Embellished,” a satirical take on the Civil War president’s life.

On Thursday, the documentary “Germany and the Secret Genocide” will be
screened at 7:30 p.m. as part of the Providence Jewish Film Festival. The
film recounts the Armenian genocide and the complicity of the German
government in the abuses of the Ottoman Turkish government.

The final screening will be Sunday at 2:30 p.m., when the festival brings
“First Israeli in Space: Ilan Ramon.” This documentary film, directed by
Neil Weisbrod of Israel’s Channel One, chronicles the life of Israeli
astronaut who died in last year’s space shuttle Columbia disaster.

A short film called “Indecision,” directed by Mary DeBarry, will also be
screened. The comedy is about a young woman who can’t make up her mind.

Weiss said the film festival is especially exciting because it serves as a
prelude to the upcoming Pawtucket Arts Festival.

“We’re very excited about this new relationship between the two festivals,”
he said.

The film festival, in its eight year, will feature screenings of 265 films
from across the United States and more than 60 countries. Organizers are
expecting 20,000 movie fans to attend screenings.

Actor Andrew McCarthy, of “Pretty in Pink”fame, is making his directorial
debut at the festival, and actor Zach Braff, who plays a doctor on NBC’s
“Scrubs,” is receiving an award.

George Marshall, executive director and chief executive of the festival,
said the event attracts a lot of filmmakers because it’s the only one in New
England where a film can qualify for an Academy Award. He said five films
screened at the festival in the past seven years have been nominated for
Oscars, and two have won.

Eva Saks, a director from New York, will be showing three of her films this
year, including “Date.”Saks has attended the festival six times, and hopes
to shoot one of her upcoming films in the area. She said she keeps returning
to Rhode Island because she’s drawn to the neighborhood feeling and loves
the architecture.

“I’m kind of crazy into this festival, into this town,”she said. ” I dig
it.”

With AP reports.

©The Pawtucket Times 2004