Author: Vatche Chakhmakhchian

The Head of'Henaket' Analytical center Tigran Abrahamyan analyzes on Facebook the current geopolitical reality in the region of the South Caucasus. 

"Russia is completing the intensive construction of its bloc-module cities in Artsakh designated for its peacekeepers. In other words, they are reinforcing their position on the ground.  In parallel with this, Azerbaijan has not ratified  the mandate of the Russian peacekeeping mission yet despite its signature put under the November 10 trilateral statement. The fact is that Russian-Azerbaijani relations are not that smooth with Turkey behind the back of Azerbaijan is now explicit," Abrahamyan wrote, pointing to the recent Azerbaijani provocations in the area under the zone of Russian responsibility, the delay with the return of prisoners, direct and indirect messages coming from Baku about temporary presence of Russians in Artsakh and contradictory developments about Iskander missiles.   

"In general, numerous violations of the provisions set out in the November 10 and January 11 agreements speak about the fact that Turkey and Azerbaijan with the help of third countries are working hard to diminish the Russian factor in the region and promote the Turkish agenda," Abrahamyan added.

"The issue of unblocking the regional transit routes remains in the focus of attention of Russia and the West," analyst Argishti Kiviryan told a press conference on Wednesday, commenting on the prospects of the regional cooperation in the South Caucasus after the war in Nagorno-Karabakh. 

In Kiviryan's words, Moscow wants to complete the processes underway in the region at a time when the Biden Administration has not shown its presence in the regional affairs yet . 

"In the occurred situation, we are not responsible for decisions made. We can not also decide by our own who are our enemies and friends. To be able to do so we need to get stronger, recover the army and the economy," Kiviryan said.

He pointed to the recent statement from Azerbaijan about the use of Iskander missiles in Shushi, which, per him, shows relations between Baku and Moscow have strained. 

As to the snap parliamentary elections in Armenia, the analyst said Pashinyan would rather avoid holding those elections if he had chances. 

"If he steps back, there would be a major backlash from his supporters. Pashinyan himself does not trust anyone that is the reason he is touring every village to try to assess the real state of affairs and the mood of the population. The elections will show whether Pashinyan enjoys the trust of the people," said Kiviryan. 

As to the recent ruling of the Constitutional Court of Armenia which declared Article 300.1 of the Criminal Code as unconstitutional, Kiviryan said, the judges of the Court realized they were dealing with a 'political corpse '

"Even pro-Pashinyan judges refused to make a different decision, knowing about the consequences of that unlawful act," said the speaker.