Antelias: Members of the Cilician Brotherhood

PRESS RELEASE
Catholicosate of Cilicia
Communication and Information Department
Tel: (04) 410001, 410003
Fax: (04) 419724
E- mail: [email protected]
Web:

PO Box 70 317
Antelias-Lebanon

Members of the Cilician Brotherhood visit Dioceses worldwide

Antelias, Lebanon – On behalf of His Holiness Catholicos Aram I, the
following members of the brotherhood visited the Dioceses during the Holy
Week in order to join the faithful in prayers.

Archbishop Ardavazt Terterian visited the Western Prelacy. Bishop Dirayr
Panossian visited the Diocese of Cyprus. Rev. Keghart Kusbekian visited the
Diocese of Aleppo. Rev. Bartev Gulumian and Rev. Vaghinag Meloyan visited
the Diocese of Tehran.

Each year, as an expression of the existing brotherly love and collaboration
between the hierarchal Sees, and upon the invitation of Archbishop Torkom
Manougian, Patriarch of Jerusalem, and Archbishop Mesrob Moutafian,
Patriarch of Istanbul, members of the Cilician Britherhood visit Istanbul
and Jerusalem. This year, Bishop Nareg Alemezian visited Jerusalem and V.
Rev. Yeghishée Mandjigian visited Istanbul.

During the Holy week the Brotherhood members also visited churches of the
Diocese of Lebanon to deliver sermons.

##

The Armenian Catholicosate of Cilicia is one of the two Catholicosates of
the Armenian Orthodox Church. For detailed information about the
jurisdiction and the Christian Education activities in both the
Catholicosate and the dioceses, you may refer to the web page of the
Catholicosate, The Cilician Catholicosate, the
administrative center of the church is located in Antelias, Lebanon.

http://www.cathcil.org/
http://www.cathcil.org/

Members of Iraqi boy band dream of Rock ‘n Roll fame

The Daily Star, Lebanon
April 8 2004

Members of Iraqi boy band dream of Rock ‘n Roll fame
But with instability in country, their opportunities are even more
limited than during Saddam’s reign

By Borzou Daragahi
Special to The Daily Star

BAGHDAD: They’re young, cute and talented. After the fall of Saddam
Hussein, Western journalists swooned over Art Haroutunian, Nadeem
Hamid, Hassan Ali, Shant Zawar and Diar Delyar, the fun-loving
members the Iraqi boy band, Unknown to No One. They were invited to
England. They dreamed they’d soon see their names in lights, joining
the ranks of their idols: Wham!, Backstreet Boys, Boys to Men, West
Life and Michael Jackson.

Alas, Iraq’s bungled reconstruction effort and continuing instability
have put a damper on their rise. Despite its new freedoms and new
possibilities, the new era hasn’t made the pop life any easier, and
it’s brought plenty of disappointments, even for Baghdad’s jovial boy
band.

“Good things during Saddam’s time have turned bad while bad things
about the Saddam time have turned good,” says Haroutunian, the band’s
leader. “We don’t have to fear being summoned for military service or
hunted by the intelligence officers. But we fear terrorist bombings
and insecurity. Even though we have more money, there are no night
clubs and no entertainment.”

Indeed, the light-hearted band’s experiences since the toppling of
Saddam Hussein’s regime on April 9, 2003 encapsulates many of
post-war Iraq’s successes and failures.

The band members, who sing and speak perfect English, thought they
had paid their dues, trying to live out their Rock n Roll fantasies
under Saddam Hussein’s brutal dictatorship, where satellite dishes
were outlawed and Western music had to be smuggled into the country.

Once they wanted to get their song, Hey, Girl, on a radio station
controlled by Saddam Hussein’s son Odai, who was killed by American
troops in Mosul last summer. Keyboardist Haroutunian says they were
told no way, not even with payola, unless they came up with a
birthday song for Saddam Hussein.

They whipped something together: “Shining throught the times, Your
light never ends, You’re the one who helps us find the truth out of
lies, You’re the answer to all our hopes and dreams, Our love, our
lives to you we have have given, Our love, you bring, all bells let
them ring, As we all will sing, long live dear Saddam.” Odai’s radio
station aired the Saddam song on the hour for a week.

“Then our love song, they broadcast it only once, and that was it,”
says Haroutunian.

For Haroutunian, an Iraqi Christian, and his Sunni, Kurdish and
Shiite bandmates, the US invasion liberated them from tyranny. It was
time to party, or so they thought.

“My whole life I was living this lie and it was gone in a twinkle of
an eye,” Haroutunian said. “I laughed and cried. We celebrated.”

Indeed, the US invasion transformed Iraq’s pop landscape. Record
stores became filled with bootlegged copies of Britney Spears, 50
Cent and Christina Aguilera.

Satellite music channels began pumping out the latest Arab pop tunes
from Beirut and Cairo. The airwaves were flooded with America’s Radio
Sawa, with its mix of Western, Middle Eastern and even Indian hits.

Despite the flood of new entertainment, the band found opportunities
in the new Iraq even more limited than before. Just after the war,
they were invited to England by Channel 4. Promoters and media
descended on them, vowing to make them the next big thing.

But Iraq’s Foreign Ministry burned down after the war, and since the
boys didn’t have passports, they’ve been waiting a whole year to get
permission to leave the country. They’re stuck in Iraq until at least
June 30, Haroutunian says.

The band would have loved spending the last year in Baghdad putting
together a new album. From Now On, their first album, sold 2,000
copies at about $2 a piece. But the Baghdad music scene is even more
moribund than before. All the studios have cleared of their equipment
in fear of robbers.

“Nobody’s producing songs here,” Haroutunian.

Under Saddam Hussein, the boys tried in vain to find a venue in which
to perform live in Iraq. These days they wouldn’t dream of it. An
epidemic of violence has shaken the country, says guitarist Ali. “Who
will risk his life and go watch an Iraqi boy band in a concert?” he
asks. “Nobody would do it.”

The post-war Iraq has even robbed Unknown to No One of the main
fringe benefits of being in a pop band. “All the parents keep their
girls locked up at home,” says singer Hamid, whose slim, tall figure
and bedroom eyes made him the band heartthrob before the war. “None
of us is getting lucky with the girls,” he says.

The band wanted to spend the past year sharpening their act, getting
tighter musically. But Iraq’s phone service was destroyed during the
war and full service has yet to be restored. Just arranging a
practice has become a complicated nightmare.

All of the boys are in their early 20s, except for Art, who’s 26, a
little gray for boy band stardom. But they remain hopeful.

“We have the ambition of becoming rock stars,” says Hamid. “It hasn’t
happened yet. But,” he takes a deep breath, “fingers crossed.”

;categ_id=4&article_id=1724

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&amp

ASBAREZ Online [04-06-2004]

ASBAREZ ONLINE
TOP STORIES
04/06/2004
TO ACCESS PREVIOUS ASBAREZ ONLINE EDITIONS PLEASE VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT <;HTTP://

1) ARF Western Region Announcement on Recent Political Developments in Armenia
2) AADLC Launches ArmeniansforKerry.com
3) Media Outcry as Journalist Attackers Stay Unpunished
4) Yedelian First Elected Armenian Councilor in Australia

1) ARF Western Region Announcement on Recent Political Developments in Armenia

Recent internal political developments in the Republic of Armenia are
approaching the brink of outright confrontation between the opposition and the
authorities, and threaten the independence of the country, its security, and
stability. This tense political environment causes serious concern not only
for
citizens of Armenia, but also Armenians in the Diaspora, including those in
the
Western United States.
Gravely concerned over these developments, the Central Committee of the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) Western Region announces the
imperative
of engaging in political dialogue in order to immediately diffuse the tense
situation that threatens our homeland.
In its April 5 announcement, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation’s Supreme
Body of Armenia, characterized the political formula for mutual concessions in
order to bring the country out of the current impasse.
In turn, we appeal to Armenians of Western USA to practice vigilance–to
reject deceptive provocations, insulting expressions, and extremist
announcements that serve to fuel the already tense situation both in Armenia
and the Diaspora, including our region.
American Armenians have a historic mission to always stand by and support
Armenia. We can uphold this sacred mission only by way of a healthy national
outlook. Thus, American Armenians must serve as an example to political forces
inside Armenia to be able to overcome this difficult phase that threatens our
nation.
On this issue, the Central Committee of the ARF Western region, places total
faith in the sound judgment of our public.
Armenian Revolutionary Federation Western Region
Central Committee
Glendale, April 6, 2004

2) AADLC Launches ArmeniansforKerry.com

FULL-FEATURED WEBSITE OFFERS ACTIVISM TOOLS, RESOURCES, ON-LINE CONTRIBUTIONS,
AND SIGN-UP PAGE FOR VOLUNTEERS AND SUPPORTERS

ARLINGTON, VA–The Armenian American Democratic Leadership Council (AADLC)
has
launched <;, a
powerful, full-featured website providing the growing number of Armenian
American supporters of John Kerry with activism tools to support the
presumptive Democratic nominee’s campaign for the Presidency of the United
States.
“We are pleased, through ArmeniansforKerry.com, to provide Armenian
Americans–Democrats, Independents, and cross-over Republicans–with solid
information and practical tools they need to help elect John Kerry as
President,” said AADLC spokesperson Tsoghig Margossian. “We look forward to
working with the growing number of Armenian Americans supporting the Kerry
campaign in educating voters, generating campaign support and financial
contributions, and mobilizing grassroots pro-Kerry get-out-the-vote efforts
leading up to Election Day on November 2.”
The welcome message on the website notes: “On the issues Armenian Americans
care about–as Armenians and as Americans–John Kerry is the clear choice. He
is a candidate that our nation’s more than one and a half million citizens of
Armenian heritage can be proud of, for his record of service to our nation,
and
for personal involvement in all the vital issues of special concern to
Armenian
Americans–genocide recognition, a strong Armenia, increased aid, expanded
trade, and an end to the blockades.” The website continues: “In sharp
contrast, George W. Bush has broken his promises and repeatedly betrayed the
trust of the Armenian American community, opposed the issues they care about,
and presided over the most anti-Armenian administration in modern history.
Almost immediately after taking office in 2001, he abandoned his campaign
pledge to properly recognize Armenian Genocide.”
Among the main features of ArmeniansforKerry.com are the following:
* ArmeniansforKerry.com documents Senator Kerry’s 20-year pro-Armenian record
in the US Senate and includes direct links to his key speeches on a range of
issues of concern to Armenian American voters.
* ArmeniansforKerry.com has an easy-to-use sign-up page for volunteers, for
e-list updates, and for individuals who want to have their name listed on the
website as supporters of John Kerry for President.
* ArmeniansforKerry.com features an on-line donation feature that
automatically tracks campaign donations made by Armenian Americans.
* ArmeniansforKerry.com features a photo gallery, including a front-page
photo
of Senator Kerry speaking in front of an Armenians for Kerry sign during his
victory speech on the day of the Virginia Democratic primary. Video
footage of
the AADLC campaign volunteers holding these signs was broadcast
internationally
on the CNN cable network.
* ArmeniansforKerry.com “press room” provides, in one place, coverage of
Armenians for Kerry that has appeared in the Armenian American media.
* ArmeniansforKerry.com includes extensive links to the main JohnKerry.com
website, including background information, press information, videos,
community
outreach, volunteering, events, an on-line forum, photos, meet-ups, and voter
registration.

The AADLC has an extensive, nation-wide record of activism in support of
Democratic Presidential candidates spanning the past several elections. For
more information about the AADLC:
Visit:
Email: [email protected].

3) Media Outcry as Journalist Attackers Stay Unpunished

YEREVAN (RFE/RL)–Armenia’s leadership showed no signs on Tuesday of impending
punishment for violent youths that attacked journalists at an opposition rally
in Yerevan, leading to the indiscriminate smashing of TV and still cameras.
“All of this is incompatible with democratic principles and civilization in
general,” said Astghik Gevorgian, chairwoman of the Armenian Union of
Journalists.
The Armenian Press Club issued a more strongly-worded statement accusing
law-enforcement agencies of “neglecting their professional duty.”
President Robert Kocharian’s spokesman Ashot Kocharian said, “We condemn any
illegal act, especially one directed against journalists and
representatives of
mass media.” He would not say whether any orders were issued by the president
in connection with the incident.
“It is incomprehensible why law-enforcement bodies did not intervene in those
actions,” said deputy speaker of Armenia’s parliament Tigran Torosian,
“Regardless of who the perpetrators of that violence are, they must be
unconditionally identified and punished.”
Eyewitnesses say scores of police officers looked on as about two dozen thugs
beat journalists and smashed cameras that documented their violent attempts to
disrupt Sunday’s rally. The officers, among them the deputy chief of the
national Police Service, ignored pleas to stop the rampage. The trouble-makers
left the scene unimpeded.
The chief of the Yerevan police department, Nerses Nazarian, sought to
justify
the police inactivity with claims that his subordinates had been issued with
orders to intervene in the proceedings only “in extreme cases.” Risking a
further media outcry, he portrayed the attack as a mere “dispute of
individuals
with opposite views.”
Several of the attackers were videotaped by a cameraman who managed to escape
unscathed.
Kentron was the sole Armenian TV channel to provide detailed coverage of the
attack. Other stations which also lost cameras, chose to cover-up the matter
up–an act strongly criticized by Boris Navasardian, chairman of the Yerevan
Press Club, who said that pro-Kocharian channels are acting against
“journalistic solidarity.”

4) Yedelian First Elected Armenian Councilor in Australia

SYDNEY–Newly elected Councilor for Central Ward, Ryde City Council, Sarkis
Yedelian became first Councilor elected in Australia of Armenian ancestry.
“I am deeply humbled and grateful to the people of Ryde for their support and
trust,” Yedelian said on Monday.
Yedelian was elected on a platform which offered a fresh approach to dealing
with Council issues, and bringing accountability.
“Ryde city is a great place to live, and I’ll be doing everything I can to
ensure it remains so,” Yedelian said.
Yedelian, who has lived in the area for over 20 years, operates a camera and
video production business in Gladesville.
He is a founding and current board member of Community TV Sydney Ltd., CH31,
and is also the president of Armenian TV Sydney Incorporated. Established in
1994, it is the first and remains the only Armenian TV broadcast service in
Australia run entirely by volunteers and producing 3 hours of broadcasting
each
week.
He is married with two children.

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On this Day – April 2

The Mercury, Australia

April 2 2004

Highlights in history on this date

1993 – Armenian forces seize Kelbajar in Azerbaijan, completing a
land link to the Armenian enclave Nagorno-Karabach.

1512 – Beyazid II, Sultan of Turkey, abdicates in favour of son,
Selim I.
1559 – Peace treaty between France and Spain is signed at
Cateau-Cambresis, France, leaving Spain the dominant power in Italy
for the next 150 years.
1612 – Protestant Union of Germany signs defensive alliance with
England.
1682 – Bartolome Esteban Murillo, Spanish painter best known for his
populist religious works, dies.
1721 – Sir Robert Walpole is appointed first lord of the treasury and
chancellor of the exchequer, effectively Britain’s first prime
minister.
1833 – Attempt by revolutionaries to take over Frankfurt Diet in
Germany is crushed.
1860 – The legendary Pony Express begins a US mail service between St
Joseph, Missouri and Sacramento, California.
1865 – In the American Civil War, Union forces occupy the Confederate
capital Richmond, Virginia.
1882 – After more than 15 years of robbing banks and trains, US
outlaw Jesse James is shot in the back at St Joseph, Missouri by a
member of his gang.
1883 – State Premier Thomas McIlwraith claims British New Guinea as a
Queensland possession; the claim was later disallowed by Britain.
1897 – Death of Johannes Brahms, German composer and pianist.
1913 – English suffragette Emmeline Pankhurst is found guilty of
encouraging supporters to arson and sentenced to three years in
prison.
1920 – US author F Scott Fitzgerald and Zelda Sayre are married, four
days after publication of his novel This Side of Paradise.
1922 – Joseph Stalin is appointed General Secretary of the Soviet
Communist Party.
1930 – Ras Tafari becomes Emperor Haile Selassie of Abyssinia
(Ethiopia).
1933 – First flight over Mt Everest in the Himalayas is made by four
Britons in two biplanes.
1936 – Bruno Hauptmann is electrocuted for the kidnap-murder of US
aviator Charles Lindbergh’s infant son.
1941 – British troops evacuate Libyan port Bengazi during World War
II.
1943 – Death of German actor Conrad Veidt, best known for his roles
in The Cabinet of Dr Caligari and Casablanca.
1948 – United States creates the Marshall Plan, allocating $US5.33
billion in aid to 16 European nations to help in rebuilding after
WWII.
1949 – Transjordan signs an armistice with the newly founded state
Israel.
1968 – Less than 24 hours before his assassination in Memphis,
Tennessee, civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr delivers his
famous “mountaintop” speech to a rally of striking sanitation
workers.
1974 – More than 300 people die when a series of deadly tornadoes
strike wide parts of the US South and Midwest before jumping across
the border into Canada.
1975 – Russian Anatoly Karpov, 23, becomes world chess champion when
American Bobby Fischer fails to show up for their match in Manila.
1982 – Britain dispatches a naval task force to the south Atlantic to
reclaim the disputed Falkland Islands from Argentina; UN Security
Council votes 10-1 in favour of a resolution demanding withdrawal of
Argentine forces; A new state Labor government, under John Cain, is
elected in Victoria.
1986 – Peter Pears, British operatic tenor, dies.
1987 – The late Duchess of Windsor’s jewels are auctioned, fetching
nearly $US45 million.
1989 – Guerrillas and South African-led security forces wage fierce
hand-to-hand battles in northern Nigeria.
1990 – Jazz singer Sarah Vaughan dies in suburban Los Angeles at age
66.
1991 – UN Security Council votes 12-1 to accept a ceasefire
resolution requiring Iraq to destroy its weapons of mass destruction
and authorising peacekeeping troops to be deployed in the region;
Death of British novelist Graham Greene, aged 86, in Switzerland.
1992 – Communist Ramiz Alia resigns as president of Albania, two
weeks after a non-Communist parliament is elected.
1993 – Armenian forces seize Kelbajar in Azerbaijan, completing a
land link to the Armenian enclave Nagorno-Karabach.
1994 – Thousands jam a Sarajevo cathedral for the first peaceful
Easter in two years, but fighting continues along Serb-Muslim front
lines.
1995 – At least 150 Hutus, mostly women and children, are massacred
in a single village in north-eastern Burundi.
1996 – A US Air Force military plane carrying US Commerce Secretary
Ron Brown and 34 others crashes in stormy weather on a hillside
outside Dubrovnik, Croatia, killing all aboard; Former maths
professor Theodore Kaczynski is arrested, accused of being America’s
murderous Unabomber.
1997 – Iraq begins distributing the first shipments of 400,000 tonnes
of wheat bought under a deal with the United Nations allowing the
sale of oil for food.
1998 – The Dow Jones industrial average of the New York Stock
Exchange reaches 9,000 for the first time, five months after the
Dow’s biggest one-day drop had many thinking the market was going
into a recession; Australian Defence Force ends its six-month drought
relief operation in Papua New Guinea after delivering 3.2 million kg
of aid to remote areas.
1999 – Christians and Muslims armed with swords, spears and homemade
bombs riot and burn a church, a mosque and several houses in Ambon,
the eastern Indonesian province where chronic rioting has killed more
than 200 people; Lionel Bart, British composer of the musical Oliver,
dies aged 68.
2000 – A federal judge in Washington rules that Microsoft Corp has
violated US antitrust laws by keeping “an oppressive thumb” on
competitors during the race to link Americans to the internet.
2001 – The death toll in a meningitis outbreak in Burkina Faso tops
1,000. The government and the World Health Organisation scramble to
secure millions of vaccine doses to control the epidemic which is
spreading to neighbouring countries.
2002 – The Afghan Army is reborn when the first 600 soldiers trained
for six weeks by international peacekeepers graduate in a ceremony
attended by interim leader Hamid Karzai.
2003 – The World Health Organisation reports 2,270 illnesses,
including 79 deaths, from a spreading epidemic of a new respiratory
ailment known as SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome; The US
Congress overwhelmingly votes to approve nearly $US80 billion
($A107.65 billion) to finance the war in Iraq, reward key allies,
bolster anti-terrorism efforts and help struggling airlines.

Tbilisi: Georgia At A Crossroads

GEORGIA AT A CROSSROADS

Past armed checkpoints into outlaw lands, the author traces the
history of the Caucasus republic, a leading recipient of U.S. aid and
scene of a potential new cold war

Smithsonian
April 2004

By Jeffrey Tayler

FROM THE SOOTY MAW of an unlit tunnel at Rikoti Pass, where the jagged
massifs of the Great Caucasus and Lesser Caucasus mountains come
together, we drove out into flurrying snow and whirling fog, heading
west. The decayed asphalt wound down toward the verdant Kolkhida
Lowland and the port of Poti, on the Black Sea. About 100 miles behind
us was Tbilisi, Georgia’s capital, and its tense roadside
checkpoints–grime-streaked booths of cracked glass and dented steel,
concrete barriers at which hulking men in black uniforms, Kalashnikovs
dangling from their shoulders, peered into car windows looking for
guns and explosives.

We soon reached the lowland and its crumbling shacks and derelict
factories–the towns of Zestaponi, Samtredia and Senaki. Bony cattle
and mud-splattered pigs poked around trash heaps; a few people wearing
threadbare coats and patched boots traipsed down slushy walkways. My
driver, a gray-bearded ethnic Armenian in his 40s named Gari
Stepanyan, saw me looking at the remains of an old cement plant. “When
independence came, people tore up these factories, ripping out all the
equipment to sell for scrap,” he said in Russian of the nation’s
emergence in 1991 from the dissolving Soviet Union. Since then,
corruption, economic chaos, civil war and rule by racketeers have
contributed to Georgia’s disintegration. I drove this same road in
1985, and had pleasant memories of it. Now, in December 2003, I
searched the ruins and recognized nothing.

Over the past 13 years, Georgia–a nation about the size of South
Carolina with some five million people–has degenerated from one of
the most prosperous Soviet republics into a faltering state that
hardly qualifies as “independent,” so heavily does it rely on Russia
for oil and gas. At times, Russia has turned off the gas, not only
because of Georgia’s unpaid utility bills but also, many authorities
speculate, to keep Georgia submissive. Since Soviet times, Georgia’s
gross domestic product has decreased by almost two-thirds, to about
$16 billion. With more than half of the population living below the
poverty line, unemployment and low wages are so common that about a
million Georgians have fled the country since 1991, mostly to
Russia. Moreover, of Georgia’s five provinces, three–Abkhazia, South
Ossetia and Ajaria–are led by strongmen with support from Russia and
have essentially seceded. The civil war of 1992-1993 cost 10,000 lives
in Abkhazia alone. Crime is widespread and violent. To put it mildly,
independence has not brought Georgians what they had hoped for.

When I flew to Tbilisi from Moscow this past December, President
Eduard Shevardnadze had just been driven from office by hundreds of
thousands of demonstrating Georgians angered by rigged parliamentary
elections and fed up with corruption and poverty. Their bloodless
uprising, led by the 36-year-old American-trained lawyer Mikhail
Saakashvili, was known to supporters as the Rose Revolution, after the
flowers that some reformers had carried to symbolize their nonviolent
intentions. Saakashvili’s opponents (including members of the fallen
regime as well as the separatist strongmen) have termed the
revolution, perhaps ominously, a coup d’etat orchestrated by the
United States. After the revolution, bomb blasts and shootings
multiplied (hence the checkpoints we encountered in Tbilisi),
allegedly carried out by henchmen of the dispossessed elite hoping to
discredit Saakashvili. But on January 4, 2004, Saakashvili, pledging
to eliminate corruption, modernize the country and restore its
territorial integrity, won the presidential election with 96 percent
of the vote.

With Saakashvili promising to pilot his country westward, but with
Russia still backing separatists and controlling Georgia’s access to
fuel, Georgia has become the arena for a replay of the Great Game, the
19th-century struggle between the great powers for territory and
influence in Asia. The stakes are high, and not just for Georgia. The
United States has given Georgia $1.5 billion in the past ten
years–more aid than to any other country besides Israel (and not
counting Iraq)–and invested heavily in pipelines that will carry oil
from deposits beneath the Caspian Sea. One pipeline (completed in
1999) crosses Georgia and ends at the Black Sea. Another (to be
completed next year) will cross Georgia and Turkey and end at the
Mediterranean. American officials say they are also concerned about
terrorism. The Pankisi Gorge, on Chechnya’s southern flank, has
sheltered both Chechen rebels and members of Al Qaeda. The
U.S. military provides antiterrorist training and equipment to
Georgian troops and has conducted reconnaissance flights along the
Georgian-Russian border–flights that have sparked fears of espionage
and American expansionism among increasingly nationalistic Russian
politicians. Russia, meanwhile, maintains two military bases in
Georgia, and reportedly plans to do so for at least another decade.

The United States may be faced with a dilemma: either abandon Georgia
to Russia’s sphere of influence or risk damaging the strategic
partnership between Moscow and Washington that has formed the basis
for international order since the end of the Cold War (and without
which the fight against terrorism may be compromised). Perhaps not
surprisingly, a State Department official I interviewed disputed that
the United States and Russia may clash over Georgia. But leading
Russian analysts have a different view. This past December Andrei
Piontkowsky, director of the Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow,
told Nezavisimaya Gazeta, a Russian newspaper, that Russians “look at
the U.S. in the northern Caucasus as a rival” and that Russian
authorities have “declared the new leadership of Georgia to be
pro-American. I’m afraid that in such conditions, one should hardly
expect relations [between Russia and Georgia] to improve.” For his
part, Georgia’s president Saakisahvili said this past February in
Washington, D.C. that “Georgia cannot be a battlefield between two
great powers.” But some experts in Georgia suggest the Great Game is
well under way “A struggle for influence is going on between Russia
and the United States in Georgia,” says Marika Lordkipanidze, a
professor of history at Tbilisi State University.

As Gari and I trundled down the rutted highway outside Poti, he said
of Saakashvili and his pro-democracy team: “The new leaders seem
honest and respectable, so things should improve–if Russia doesn’t
interfere.” Then his voice hardened. “But we told them, ‘Look, we’ll
forgive you nothing. If you make the same mistakes as Shevardnadze,
we’ll kick you out too!'” Like Saakashvili, Shevardnadze and his
forerunner, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, came to power in landslide electoral
victories. Both fled office ahead of furious mobs.

WITH AN EYE ON ITS FUTURE, I journeyed through Georgia in search of
its past, beginning on the Black Sea in Poti, where Georgia first
entered world history 2,800 years ago through contact with Greek
traders during the Hellenic age. (The Kolkhida Lowland was once the
Kingdom of Colchis, where Greek myth places the Golden Fleece sought
by Jason and the Argonauts.) From there I traced a route west to east,
the direction of Georgia’s history until the Rose Revolution. Looking
at the destroyed towns of Kolkhida and the savage mountainscape
beyond, another myth came to mind, one of the first associated with
the country. Either Hellenic or Georgian in origin, it is tellingly
bloody–that of Prometheus. According to the myth, a peak in the
Caucasus was the spot where Zeus had the Titan chained to a rock, and
doomed him to have his regenerating liver pecked out by an eagle every
day for eternity for the crime of having given humanity fire. The
myth’s notions of gory plunder reflect a basic truth: for three
millenniums Georgia has been a battleground among empires, torn apart
by invaders and internal rivalries, and betrayed by allies.

In the first century B.C., Colchis stood with Rome against Persia,
until, in A.D. 298, the Romans switched allegiance and recognized a
Persian as Georgia’s king, Chrosroid, who founded a dynasty that would
rule for two centuries. Then, in A.D. 337, Georgia’s affiliation with
the Greeks led to a fateful event: its king at the time, Mirian,
converted to Christiani–making Georgia only the second Christian
state, after Armenia. Centuries later, when Islam spread throughout
the region, Georgia remained Christian, adding to its isolation.

From Poti we traveled 70 miles south to Batumi (pop. 130,000),
capital of a Georgian territory known as the Autonomous Republic of
Ajaria. Its autonomy has tenuous legitimacy. During World War I, the
territory was seized by Turkey. In 1921, Turkish leader Kemal Atatiirk
ceded it to Russia on the condition that Vladimir Lenin accord it
autonomy, because of its partly Islamic population.

Soon after the USSR fell apart, Asian Abashidze was appointed chairman
of Ajaria’s governing council; he has ruled the territory as his
fiefdom and enforced a Stalinist cult of personality. A Russian
military base outside Batumi and strong ties to Moscow give him the
means to defy Tbilisi and withhold the tax revenues owed the federal
government. Following last year’s Rose Revolution, Russia abolished
visa requirements for Ajarians–but not other Georgians–granting de
facto recognition to Ajaria’s independence. (The United States, by
contrast, does not recognize Ajaria as a separate state.) Meanwhile,
Abashidze also declared a state of emergency and closed the
territory’s borders with the rest of Georgia. Only by paying a driver
the small fortune (for Georgia) of $70 and doling out bribes at
roadside checkpoints did I manage to reach Batumi–a city of
ramshackle one- and two-story white stucco houses, many with ornate
Ottoman-style bay windows. Mosques had green minarets that stabbed the
brilliant azure sky.

The area has been contested before, and then, too, the cause was
oil. In 1918, at the start of the three years of independence that
Georgia would enjoy after World War I cleaved it from Russia, and
before the USSR absorbed it, 15,000 British troops landed in Batumi to
protect an oil pipeline (linking the Mediterranean with the Caspian)
from Soviet and German advances. But good relations with Russia
interested the British more than did tiny Georgia or even the
pipeline, and in 1920 they withdrew their troops. The next year the
Bolsheviks invaded and transformed Georgia, along with Armenia and
Azerbaijan, into the Trans-Caucasian Federative Soviet Socialist
Republic. Georgia gained its status as a separate Soviet republic in
1936.

MY HOTEL had intermittent electricity, but, like most of Batumi,
lacked heat. My breath puffed white in my room. Frost covered the
walls. The town’s two museums, though officially “open,” were
nonetheless closed to visitors–no electricity. Ancient Russian-made
Lada automobiles beeped and rattled on sun-washed cobblestone lanes
overhung by stout palms that stood lush green against the snowy slopes
of the Lesser Caucasus. Trucks adorned with Turkish lettering reminded
one that Abashidze controls Georgia’s lucrative consumer goods trade
with Turkey, the source of much of the republic’s income. The cold and
the lack of heating and electricity told me I could only be in the
former Soviet Union, as did the local Russian-language newspaper,
Adzharia, a pathetic party-line, no-news screed. It lauded Iran and
warned of bandit attacks from Tbilisi. There is no free press in
Ajaria, which seemed never to have known perestroika or glasnost.

I soon had confirmation of this from my guide, a woman I’ll call
Katya. (To protect her anonymity, I have also changed certain
identifying characteristics.) Katya has long shimmering auburn hair
and was well turned out in a black leather jacket and boots and
designer jeans–uncommonly fine tailoring in hardscrabble Georgia. She
had formerly worked in the upper echelons of Abashidze’s government
and had enjoyed a decent salary and other privileges, As we walked
cluttered, trashy lanes toward the outlying seaside district, she
switched with ease from Russian to English to French. Black-suited men
with automatic rifles–Abashidze’s guards–stood on virtually every
corner and glowered at us. At a square near the water, we passed an
artificial New Year’s tree–a conical metallic grid 100 feet tall, up
which men were climbing to affix real leaves. Farther on, an angular
concrete monstrosity rose some 30 feet into the air from a manicured
esplanade parallel to the sea. “Our pyramid,” Katya said. “The Louvre
has one, so we do too.” Her voice sounded flat, as it she were reading
from a script. “Our president builds many things for the people.”

Facing the sea is Shota Rustaveli Batumi State University, a dreamy
white-marble complex of three-story buildings with blue gabled roofs,
apparently designed to resemble the Winter Palace in
St. Petersburg. It was closed for the day, but Katya flashed her
government pass at a guard, led me in and showed me a student theater
with decor worthy of the Bolshoi Ballet: gilt lace curtains and a huge
glittering chandelier and red plush seats. “Our president built this
theater for us,” she said flatly “He is very strong.”

“It’s better than any theater I’ve ever seen in the States,” I
replied. “Do students really need such opulence?” She did not answer,
but interrupted several more skeptical questions, saying, “Our
president is very strong. He does many things for us.” Back on the
street, away from other people, I asked if anyone in town could tell
me about politics in the republic. “Our president is very strong,”
she said. “He has put up barricades to stop bandits from entering our
republic. Our president does many things for us. Just look at the
university! And the pyramid! And the esplanade!”

We walked by the freshly washed silver Mercedes belonging to
Abashidze’s son, the mayor of Batumi. Night was falling, and more
black-suited men with Kalashnikovs were coming on patrol duty. Ahead,
the town proper was dark, without power as usual, but the president’s
office and the state residences blazed with light; the trees around
his mansion were bedecked in Christmas lights, which glittered on the
polished hood of the sole vehicle, squat and polished and black,
parked beneath them. “Our president’s Hummer,” said Katya. On the
corner, a revolving billboard showed photographs of Abashidze visiting
workers, inspecting factories, ministering to the simple man. Beyond
it, a huge array of lights covered the wall of a multistoried
building, flashing in red, white and green the nonsensical message
MILLENIUM 2004 above the dark town.

Finally, I persuaded Katya to tell me how she really felt about
politics in her republic. “We have a dictatorship here,” she said,
glancing around to make sure none of the Kalashnikov-toters was within
earshot. “We’re against our president, but he is strong. Everything
here is for our president. Nothing here is for us. Our government is
one big mafiya,” she said, using the Russian word for mob, “the
biggest in the former Soviet Union.”

The next morning, a taxi took Katya and me to the southern edge of
town, to Gonio Apsar, the ruins of a Roman fortress dating from the
first century A.D. A plaque at the gates recounted Apsar’s lengthy
history of conquest: the fortress was Roman until the fourth century;
Byzantine from the sixth; Georgian from the 14th; Ottoman till 1878,
when the Turks returned it to Russia; and Turkish again after World
War I began. It’s a story close to the consciousness of every
Georgian: armies have ravaged this land time and time again. I said it
seemed naive to believe the future would be different. Katya
agreed. “Our president wants Ajaria to join Russia,” she said. “Oh,
there will be war here, just like there was in Abkhazia! We won’t be
able to stop it. We’re all afraid of war! Oh, I just want to get out
of here!”

JUST 60 MILES northeast from Ajaria is the hill town of Kutaisi,
capital of medieval Georgia and burial place of King David IV,
considered one of the country’s founding fathers. Born in 1073, King
David took the throne after an Arab Islamic occupation that had lasted
from the seventh to the ninth centuries. He annexed the region of
Kakheti (now Georgia’s easternmost province), drove the Seljuk Turks
out of Tbilisi (which he made the capital in 1122), and turned his
country into one of the wealthiest in the region. His followers called
him the Builder. Only the reign of his granddaughter, Queen Tamar, who
enlarged Georgia’s borders to the Caspian, would shine more brightly
than his. The golden age that the Builder ushered in would not last,
however. The Mongols invaded in 1220, bubonic plague devastated the
population and, in 1386, Tamerlane’s armies tore through. After
Constantinople fell to the Turks in 1453, the Ottoman and Persian
empires fought over Georgia, killing or deporting tens of thousands.

Through Kutaisi, the pewter-hued Rioni River winds between steep stony
banks, and beyond it rise the Great Caucasus. With Marietta Bzikadze,
a 25-year-old music teacher who studies economics, I visited the
remains of Bagrat Cathedral, which dates from the early 11th century
and has had no roof since it was sacked by the Ottomon Turks in
1691. The previous day, a Sunday, I had been surprised to find the
cathedral hung with icons and bristling with bundled-up worshipers
attending morning services in the open air, despite a cold mountain
wind. “We asked the government not to rebuild the roof,” Bzikadze said
in a husky voice. “We see it as a blessing to pray in the cold, the
rain, and the snow. And we have the strength to do it. You see, 99
percent of being Georgian is being Christian.” We stood beneath the
cathedral’s walls and surveyed the monasteries and churches crowning
hilltops around town. “From here,” she said, “you can see the belfries
of Gelati Monastery and St. George Cathedral. They were built to look
out on each other. The priests used to climb them to send signals. In
times of trouble, they would sound the alarm bells to bring us
together for the fight. Always we Georgians have stood together to
face trouble bearers, be they Mongols or Turks.” She crossed herself
three times in the Orthodox manner. “May God grant us peace!”

In the spirit of the early Christian martyrs, David the Builder had
ordered his grave placed at the gates of Gelati Monastery so that his
subjects would have to walk over him on their way in–a gesture of
humility that Bzikadze and I agreed would be inconceivable today. At
least until Saakashvili, modern Georgian politicians have shown their
people little more than vanity and a lust for lucre.

FOR CENTURIES, Georgia was subjected to atomizing blows from the
north. In 1783, after Persia tried to reestablish control, Georgia
sought aid from Russia. Russia, eager to expand across the Caucasus,
signed a defense treaty but broke its word and stood by as the
Persians plundered Tbilisi in 1795. Six years later, Russia annexed
Georgia, exiled its royal family and reconfigured the country into two
gubernias (provinces). In 1811 the Russians absorbed the Georgian
Orthodox Church into the Moscow Patriarchate. Soon after,
revolutionary fervor swept Russia and dismantled the church, a pillar
of czarist rule. Even so, one of the most infamous revolutionaries of
all time came straight from the ranks of its Georgian novitiates.

Gori, some 90 miles east of Kutaisi, is a small town largely without
electricity. Residents had chopped holes in the walls of their
apartment buildings through which to run stovepipes to heat their
homes. A fragrant shroud of maple smoke hung over the deserted evening
streets, and I wandered around them, entranced. With the smoke and
dark hiding traces of decayed modernity I could have been walking
through the Gori of a century ago. Back then, I might have run into a
dashing mustachioed young poet and top-ranking seminary student named
Ioseb Dzhugashvili, the son of an illiterate peasant and a drunken
cobbler. He would adopt the surname Stalin (from Russian stal’, or
steel)and become Gori’s most famous son.

I had stopped in Gori in 1985 to visit Joseph Stalin’s home and the
museum complex devoted to his life and work. At the time, a spry,
middle-aged woman named Jujuna Khinchikashvili gave me a tour of the
museum, which resounded with his radio addresses, Soviet World War
II-era songs and the chatter of tourists (mostly Russians). Nearly two
decades later, she was still there, and still spry, but now, following
the collapse of the empire that was largely of Stalin’s making, there
was no electricity to power the recordings, the halls were dusty and I
was the sole visitor to his frigid shrine. High windows let in the
day’s dying sun–the only illumination. The museum chronicles Stalin’s
rise from seminary student to poet (he published much-admired verse in
Georgian before coming to power) to membership in Georgia’s first
Marxist party to his rise to supreme leader in the 1930s and, finally,
to his death from a stroke in 1953 at age 73. Unlike many Georgians
who speak of their dictator-compatriot with a mix of awe and unease,
Khinchikashvili enjoyed talking about Stalin, for whom she feels
measured admiration. After all, she said (paraphrasing Churchill),
Stalin took over a Russia armed with only the plow and left it with
nuclear weapons.

Among the tools that Stalin ruthlessly employed to push the Soviet
Union into the modern world were mass executions, artificial famine
and forced labor camps–all told, he sent some 18 million of his
countrymen and women to the gulags. Yet favoritism toward Georgia
never numbered among his faults; in fact, Georgians suffered more than
any other Soviet people during his rule. As Lenin’s commissar in
charge of national minorities, Stalin in 1922 drew Georgia’s borders
so that the various peoples of his native land (Georgians, Abkhaz and
Ossetians, among others) could never unite to rebel against the
Kremlin but, if unrestrained by Moscow, would fall into endless
internecine struggles. Lordkipanidze, the Tbilisi historian, described
Stalin’s autonomous entities to me as “time bombs set to detonate if
Georgia became independent.” And indeed, as soon as the Soviet Union
collapsed, civil wars erupted all over Georgia and the other Soviet
republics.

Khinchikashvili ambled down the shadowy corridors of the museum,
chatting about Stalin’s life and pointing out memorabilia. She led me
to a dark room I had not seen before, where a circle of white Roman
columns rose into the black. “Come,” she said, mounting the ramp to
the raised circle of columns and handing me a battery-powered
fluorescent lamp. “Go ahead, climb in! Look at him!” I shivered from
an eerie apprehension as well as the cold, and climbed into the
circle. My light fell on a bronze bust reclining as if lying in
state–an open-eyed death mask taken from the dictator’s face the day
after his passing. The brows were bushy, the mustache thick, the hair
rakishly abundant. It was a good likeness of him, but to me the cold
and darkness seemed a more fitting tribute.

NO LEADER in Georgia’s post-Soviet history has pledged more fervently
to undo Stalin’s legacy of oppression and poverty than Mikhail
Saakashvili. Unlike Shevardnadze, Saakashvili, who was born in
Tbilisi, received a Western education (at the International Human
Rights Institute in France and George Washington University and
Columbia University in the United States). He speaks fluent English
and French. He was working as an attorney in New York City when, in
1995, Zurab Zhvania, then the speaker of Georgia’s parliament,
persuaded him to return to Tbilisi to run in legislative elections. He
was elected, and by 2000, Shevardnadze, impressed by Saakashvili’s
energy, appointed him minister of justice. But Saakashvili grew
disenchanted by his boss’s refusal to back a proposed anti-corruption
law, and he resigned in 2001 to lead the opposition National
Movement. Shevardnadze sealed his fate by rigging the November 2003
elections to ensure his victory over his former protege’s party. On
November 22, Saakashvili led hundreds of thousands of protesters and
stormed the parliament. The next day, he helped persuade Shevardnadze,
who realized he had no better option, to resign. (Shevardnadze still
lives in Georgia and has said he plans to stay there.)

Forty-five days later, Saakashvili won the presidency on a pro-Western
platform. “We have a very confident, young group of people,” he told
the BBC at the time. “They are Western educated, extremely bright,
they speak languages, they know how the modern world functions. We
need to put these people in every level of the government.” In late
February, while in Washington, D.C. to meet with President Bush and
members of Congress, Saakashvili said at a press conference that
Georgia was “ready to meet half way with Russians on many issues as
long as Russia remembers one thing: We have our national sovereignty.”

Georgia’s new leadership aside, the nation’s future depends on rising
above a past that offers no recent precedent for success. For Georgia
to gain true independence, Russia has to renounce ambitions to
dominate the Caucasus. But that prospect seems increasingly unlikely,
given the authoritarian practices and nationalistic policies to which
the Kremlin is returning. Then there is the volatility of Georgian
voters, whose expectations of Saakashvili are astronomic; if he fails
to meet them, his electorate may assume that reform is
impossible–when was it ever successful?–and fail to weather the
transition to a stable government.

THE MAIN ROAD out of Tbilisi, the Georgian Military Highway, runs 138
miles over the Caucasus to the Russian town of Vladikavkaz. Russia
built the highway in the 19th century to ensure control over its two
new gubernias. On one of my last days in Tbilisi, I set out to travel
it as far as Kazbegi, just south of the Russian border. With Rusiko
Shonia, a refugee from Abkhazia’s civil war who now manages Tbilisi’s
historical museum, I hired a car for the three-hour ride.

As we headed north, low clouds obscured the peaks ahead. These
mountains, from ancient times to just a few years ago, held the lairs
of bandits. On various rises and ridges stood churches and their
lookout belfries. A fear of invasion seemed to haunt the ravines. The
highway led into pristine valleys where hot springs, steam-covered in
the subfreezing air, traversed snowfields. Rusiko, who is in her 40s,
has sad eyes and a lilting melancholic voice. “Ten years ago the war
in Abkhazia broke out, and we saw battles,” she said. “My grandmother
and I got lucky and managed to flee while the road was open. But
grandma died of grief after leaving Abkhazia.” The driver slipped into
four-wheel-drive mode. The drop from the icy road was sheer, and
crosses erected to those drivers who had gone over the edge heightened
my anxiety. Finally, we reached the Pass of the Cross and then
Kazbegi, with its icicled huts and snow-covered hovels. We halted
beneath Trinity Church, soaring high above us on a crag. Another world
was beginning here. Russia was only 15 miles to the north. Rusiko
looked back over her country. “In the past, everyone around us has
always wanted a part of Georgia,” she said. “We’ve always, always,
been torn to pieces.” Somewhere to the west loomed Mount Elbrus,
where, as some versions of the legend have it, Prometheus was
chained. We shuddered in the cold wind gusting clown from the slopes
to the north.

MAP: By 2005, the second of two U.S.-backed pipelines spanning
Georgia, a cash-strapped nation of 5 million about the size of South
Carolina, will have opened world energy markets to Caspian Sea oil,
said to be the world’s largest untapped fossil fuel resource.

PHOTO (COLOR): In hardscrabble Georgia (outside Tbilisi), last year’s
Rose Revolution (protesters mob parliament November 22) led to regime
change. But can the new, U.S.-educated president balance Western and
Russian interests?

PHOTO (COLOR): Georgia’s capital and the principal city of the
Caucasus since antiquity, Tbilisi (pop. 1.5 million) has been sacked
dozens of times over the past 1,500 years. “In the past,” says the
manager of a Tbilisi museum, “everyone around us has always wanted a
part of Georgia.”

PHOTO (COLOR): “I don’t believe in military solutions,” 36-year-old
President Saakashvili (with wife, Sandra Roelofs, 36, in January) said
of dealing with the breakaway provinces.

PHOTO (COLOR): A monument to the traditionally Christian nation,
Kutaisi’s 11th-century Bagrat Cathedral still functions as a house of
worship–despite having no roof since 1691.

PHOTO (COLOR): Born in Georgia in 1879, Stalin (his birth shrine in
Gori and 2003 exhibit commemorating the 50th anniversary of his death)
ruled the USSR for 29 years.

PHOTO (COLOR)

PHOTO (COLOR)

‘BETWEEN EAST AND WEST’

AMONG THE YOUNG reform-minded Georgians swept recently into power is
33-year-old Kakha Shengelia, vice premier of Tbilisi’s municipal
government and a friend of Saakashvili’s. Like Saakashvili, Shengelia
was educated in America (he obtained an M.B.A. from the University of
Hartford). Also like Saakashvili, he worked briefly in the United
States (as a project manager for a communications company in New York
City). He returned to Georgia in 1999, and three years later
Saakashvili, then chairman of the Tbilisi City Council, appointed
Shengelia to his current post. In an interview in the Tbilisi town
hall, he spoke of Georgia’s complex relations with the United States
and Russia and of taking a hard line against Georgia’s outlaw
provinces.

“We won’t tolerate Abashidze,” Shengelia said of the leader of
breakaway Ajaria. “He either has to leave the country or go to
jail. He got his wealth stealing our budgetary funds.” I asked about
Russia’s support of Abashidze and the Russian base near Batumi. “Our
goal is to remove all the Russian bases,” Shengelia said. “If Russia
leaves, the problem is solved.” How would the government persuade
Russia to do so? He didn’t say, beyond promising peace and
security. “But we want no more relations between big and little
brother.”

Yet Georgia’s promise of security, I said, hardly seems sufficient to
prompt Russia to withdraw. Wouldn’t the United States have to get
involved, perhaps pressure Moscow and act as the guarantor of Georgian
sovereignty? Shengelia agreed. Why would the United States risk
relations with the Kremlin? “To the United States we offer
geostrategic interests,” he said. “The oil pipeline from Baku to
Ceyhan [in Turkey] via Supsa, and a gas pipeline. Georgia is a country
between East and West, important in the war against terrorism.”
Shengelia spoke avidly of Georgia’s recent success in joining
international trade and political organizations and of its hope to
join the European Union and NATO. Georgia’s new direction, he said,
will be westward, away from Russia–a reversal of more than two
centuries of history.

I voiced skepticism, pointing out that Russia is a neighbor, while the
United States is distant and might lose interest if the terrorist
threat wanes. He said the reformers were not about to give up:
“Imagine living under Russian rule and surviving. Only our national
aspirations kept us going. Our language, our alphabet–this is
something given to us by God. We have a great sense of country and
love for our people, for family and roots. This is the magic force
that kept us alive during 20 centuries-our love of country.”

Jeffrey Tayler, a Moscow-based writer for the Atlantic Monthly, has
published three books, including Siberian Dawn.

Between Islam And The West

Dar Al-Hayat, Saudi Arabia
March 24 2004

Between Islam And The West
Mustafa Al Faqi

The study of the Turkish phenomenon needs historical awareness and an
understanding of the Turkish character and the various factors that
form its identity and determine its policies that oscillate between
the historical Ottoman Turkey and the geographical European Turkey.
The Turkish State is not disturbed by being in Europe’s backside
instead of being in the Islamic world’s front. There are many aspects
to consider within the Turkish phenomenon: First of all, Turkey’s
location as a link between Asia and Europe and its control of the
straits gave it historical powers whose remnants remain to this day.
Secondly, the European dream that tickles Turkish feelings and
dominates its policies has led it to seek the appeasement of the
European Union and subsequently the United States and Israel. There
is no doubt that Ataturk’s ideology contributed substantially to
Turkey’s turn of perspective from the east to the west, despite all
the difficult conditions and concessions it had to face.
Nevertheless, the former French President, Valerie Giscard D’Estaing
has deemed that Turkey’s membership in the EU is almost impossible
and that perhaps a country like Morocco, in his point of view, has a
priority over it.

Ataturk’s secularism distanced Turkey from the Arab East, for the
eradication of the traditional headwear is not just symbolic but an
indication of the end of the Ottoman era and the beginning of
adopting Latin letters and turning Islam to a unique “Ataturkian”
model that is guarded by the army. We should also not forget that
Turkey is an important member of the NATO alliance and has played an
essential role in protecting Western and American interests and so it
is a key member of the Western defense system, which stood by its
side during its security troubles whether pertaining to the Cypriot
or Kurdish issues. Furthermore, the expansion of the Islamic tide in
modern Turkey represents an exceptional phenomenon, for new
generations express enthusiasm about returning to Turkey’s Islamic
character.

Hence, Turkey is a distinctive country and has played a significant
historical role in the entire region. Arabs have not properly used
the Turkish “card” in all their issues particularly in the
Arab-Israeli struggle. It is about time that Arabs deal with Turkey,
perhaps through the Arab League or bilateral ties, in a new
perspective because the diversity of its role makes it in a position
that can exert pressure on major world powers. The Turks are probably
enthusiastic about such a role but we Arabs have failed in taking
advantage of that role. Arab-Turkish relations definitely vary from
one Arab country to another as well as from one period to another
depending on international circumstances. We will not forget the
confrontation in 1998 with Syria that was avoided by the wisdom of
late President Assad and the efforts of the current Egyptian
President Mubarak.

Arab-Turkish relations have a lot of potential and should focus on
the following points: Overcoming the past’s negative aspects and
concentrating on the partnership that lasted for many centuries in
order to boost relations and give Turks the incentive to reconsider
their total secularism and change of identity without hurting Turkish
pride or the image of their legendary conqueror, Mustafa Kemal. The
Israeli-Turkish relations should not be an obstacle but a quality in
this course for Turkey could exert pressure in favor of peace. That
is why it should be given the status of observer in the Arab League
since it and Iran constitute the Arabs’ northern and eastern
neighbors. Moreover, the Turkish model of Islam should be considered
a fact. The recent visit by the current Syrian President to Turkey
has created a better atmosphere and has strengthened Arab-Turkish
relations and possibly gave way to a mediation role with Israel on
the Syrian and Lebanese tracks. The situation in Iraq might also be a
factor in bolstering these relations especially that Northern Iraq
has an ethnic Turkish minority.

This is our point of view concerning that country, at the center of
the world and that carries a part of human heritage and occupies a
strategic and unique position, which we share with a long history
including points of strength and weakness, particularly at the time
when the Turkish army perpetrated historic misfortunes that were
embodied in “Damascus’s hangings” in addition to the “Armenian
massacre.” Yet, history exonerates and peoples forgive and at the end
it is the long-term perspective of the relations between Arabs and
the country, oscillating between east and west that persist.

http://english.daralhayat.com/opinion/03-2004/Article-20040324-7a58a525-c0a8-01ed-006c-e26e37a2e701/story.html

Primate’s Easter Message

PRESS OFFICE
ARMENIAN CHURCH OF NORTH AMERICA WESTERN DIOCESE
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PRIMATE’S EASTER MESSAGE

“To me, living is Christ and dying is gain”.(Philippians 1:21)

Inspired and enriched by the mystery of the Holy Resurrection of Christ
the words of St. Paul are as powerful as a prayer. The same words not
only come as powerful prayer echoing in our hearts, but as a way of
life, because we realize the truth that “Christ loved us and gave
himself up for us, a fragrant offering and sacrifice to God.” (Eph. 5:2)

The mystery of the Holy Resurrection of Christ becomes the essence of
our spiritual life only when the old person in us is reborn and we
fearlessly inaugurate the new man, ” to put away your former way of
life, your old self, corrupt and deluded by its lusts, and to be renewed
in the spirit of your minds, and to clothe yourselves with the new self,
created according to the likeness of God in true righteousness and
holiness.” (Eph. 4:22-25)

The entire spiritual journey of Lent leas us to the glorious mystery of
the Resurrection of Christ, which ushered in for mankind a new life and
the Christian believer discovered within himself the divine power that
enables one to constantly renew his life to the extent that he feels in
his soul the miracle of the new life.

Dear faithful, with a joyous heart we send you our Easter Message and
call upon all of you to rededicate you lives to Christ, to enter the
depths of the mystery of the Holy Resurrection through the most noble
life of prayer, and to discover in your souls the divine grace which
makes it possible for us to renew our God-given lives. Undoubtedly each
one of us needs the power of regeneration. Life may often be influenced
by the manifold temptations of the world, but when a life is established
on the cornerstone of the life-giving Resurrection of Christ it can
repel the perils that it encounters every day.

The glorious Resurrection of Christ opens before us the dawn of a new
life. The Giver of life opens before us a new way in Christ, the Son of
God, so that through the sacrifice of His life becomes the spiritual
light of a new life for the entire human race.
Christ is risen from the dead! Blessed is the resurrection of Christ!
The foundation of our Christian faith is the Holy Resurrection of
Christ. Without the Resurrection of Christ Christianity would become for
us a set of moral principles for life and a guiding doctrine. But
Christianity is life itself, the source of salvation, because it is
anchored in the personal sacrifice of Christ. Christianity is the
movement from the mind to the heart that is dawned first in our own
thoughts and then becomes the moving energy of our entire being. It is
not possible to explain in words alone our faith in the Holy
Resurrection. The Resurrection of Christ is ever spreading force that is
kneaded in our essence and separates us from the foreign thoughts that
have no root in God. In the words of St. Nersess the Graceful we subject
our souls entirely to God and we take refuge in His power. “To you I
surrender my soul. You provide and satisfy the needs of my soul and
body.”

Dear faithful, the resurrection of Christ casts the roots of new life
also in our Holy Church when we awaken in us the vision of a new Church,
a revitalized Church. The Armenian Apostolic Church has reached such a
critical moment when the mission of our Holy Church must echo the new
circumstances of life. And to revitalize the Church means to lead the
very same Church to a spiritual rebirth in the mystery of the
Resurrection. To revitalize does not mean to reject the traditions that
have reached us through the centuries, but to connect the people to
those traditions, and to reunite as one reality the Church and the
people who are drawing apart from one another. For when the Church does
not reflect our life today she remains merely a concept, a lifeless
doctrine. We are living in times when Christianity remains disconnected
to man, when one turns to other sources to satisfy one’s spiritual
thirst, sources that provide only temporary satisfaction to one’s
spiritual needs. Today this is the reality in Armenia and in the
Diaspora. The reality is no different for the faithful of the Western
Diocese of the Armenian Church of North America. In order to satisfy
their spiritual thirst children of our Church leave the Mother Church
and lead their lives on the paths of uncertainty. The situation dictates
that we stay in our home and rejuvenate, renew and enrich the traditions
of the Armenian Church that have reached us through the centuries. The
Church is not a reality detached from us, and it is necessary to make
the active life the very aim and purpose of the Church through visible
actions. Anything else would suggest weakness, which we reject.

The glorious Holy Resurrection of Christ today is an invitation to all
the children of the Armenian Apostolic Church without exception to
return home. The mystery of the glorious Resurrection of Christ becomes
real when through Holy Etchmiadzin a new unity is established in our
community, a unity whose strength will enable us to see more brightly
the eternal truths.

Christ is risen from the dead! Blessed is the resurrection of Christ!

Archbishop Hovnan Derderian, Primate
Easter 2004

www.armenianchurchwd.com

W. Haven’s Berto Drops Close Fight

Published Monday, March 22, 2004
W. Haven’s Berto Drops Close Fight

By DURWARD BUCK
Ledger Correspondent

Winter Haven welterweight boxer Andre “Mike” Berto had to settle for
silver Saturday night.

Fighting as a member of the Haitian national team, Berto lost a close
decision to United States team fighter Vanes Martirosyan for the
152-pound title at the Americas Regional Olympic Qualifier in Tijuana,
Mexico.

The judges scored it 24-21.

“It was kind of an anti-climatic thing,” said Winter Haven
trainer-coach Tony Morgan. “Mike already knew he had won a spot in the
Olympic games, and I don’t know how much he was up to it.”

Martirosyan had lost to Berto in the USA Team Trials in February, but
the decision was erased by a ruling on an earlier fight.

Berto has lived and trained in the United States and was fighting for
Haiti because his parents are from Haiti. Ironically, Martirosyan had
lived most of his life in Armenia and moved to the U.S. with his
family as a young boxer.

“We’re looking to meeting him again,” Morgan said. “Only this time, it
will be in Athens.”

Under the regional qualifying rules, the top two boxers advanced to
the August Olympic Games in Athens, Greece.

“There were some walkovers in the finals,” Morgan said. “People just
didn’t fight because they didn’t have anything to prove.

“But Mike wanted to fight for the experience and for pride.”

Morgan said he knew the decision was going to be close. “A lot of the
people there thought it was a bid decision. I know how fight judging
can be, so I was ready to accept whatever they said.”

Berto was the only member of a six-fighter Haitian team to qualify for
the Olympics. The other five could still earn a trip to Greece at
another regional qualifier in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, beginning April
4. Eight members of the United States team advanced to the Olympic
Games.

“We had talked some about going to Rio, but now we won’t have to,”
Morgan said.

The welterweight bout was an active one, as indicated by the high
score.

“The other kid held a lot, and we took our medicine,” said Morgan,
also the trainer-manager of the Winter Haven Police Athletic League
team.

The first round was even, according to Morgan.

“It was very intense after that. Mike won the second round and Vanes
won the third. I believe Vanes was ahead by three points after three
rounds.”

A hard-punching boxer, Berto had dominated two early opponents in the
regionals. “He hurt everybody he fought,” Morgan said. “Nobody hurt
him.”

Berto’s plans are to take a day or two off. He was scheduled to return
to Winter Haven today.

“We’ll start trailing with some light workouts and roadwork, and then
work harder for about a month or so,” Morgan said.

“Then, we’ll go into intense training for the Olympics.”

Knights of Vartan College Scholarship

PRESS RELEASE
KNIGHTS OF VARTAN ETCHMIADZIN LODGE-LONG ISLAND NY
CONTACT: MR. EDWARD BARSAMIAN
TEL 212-689-6273
FAX 2126892975
EMAIL:[email protected]

WOODSIDE, NY – The Etchmiadzin Lodge of the Knights of Vartan, will offer
a $1,000.00 scholarship as well as other smaller grants to Armenian
students who are
currently enrolled at an accredited college or university in pursuit of
an undergraduate or graduate degree. The applicants must have completed
at least one semester of college work.

The competition is open to residents of Queens, Nassau and Suffolk
counties of New York State. Residents of the above-mentioned counties,
who are attending schools out-side of the area, may also apply.

Applicants are additionally eligible for a second $ 1,000.00 scholarship
award if they are sons or daughters of a member of the Knights of Vartan
in good standing.

Information and application forms may be obtained by contacting Mr.
Edward Barsamian at 212-689-6273, e-mail request to [email protected] or by
writing to the following address:

Mr. Edward Barsamian
36 East 31 Street, Ninth floor
New York, NY 10016

Deadline for completed applications and supporting transcripts is May 18

Election results: Putin is ceasing to be a “human rating”

Agency WPS
What the Papers Say. Part A (Russia)
March 17, 2004, Wednesday

Election results: Putin is ceasing to be a “human rating”

There’s no sensational news. As expected, Vladimir Putin was
re-elected as president of Russia on March 14.

He took first place, 57% ahead of his nearest rival, Communist
candidate Nikolai Kharitonov; as the Kommersant newspaper observed,
this is a record margin for Russia. The previous record had been set
by Boris Yeltsin in 1991, when he defeated Nikolai Ryzhkov by a
margin of 40.5%.

However, when compared to other leaders in former Soviet states,
Putin – with his 57% winning margin – only ranks eighth. He is ahead
of President Robert Kocharian of Armenia (who won with a margin of
21.26%) and President Leonid Kuchma of Ukraine (14.25%). But the top
spot is held by President Saparmurat Niyazov of Turkmenistan, of
course, who got 99.5% of the vote in his last election. The
Turkmenbashi is closely followed by President Emomali Rakhmonov of
Tajikistan (96.97%), President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia
(96.27%) and President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan (91.9%). In this
company, Putin hasn’t broken any records.

Rather venomously, the Vedomosti newspaper observed that it’s good to
know Putin “is a well-read person who has visited the Hermitage and
the Tretyakov Gallery,” not to mention “the museum that is the
Kremlin.” Thus, says Vedomosti , there is some hope that “he won’t
wish to follow the example of Saparmurat Niyazov and become ‘the
father of the Russian people,’ president for life, with a golden
statue of himself rotating to follow the sun on Red Square and/or
Palace Square.”

Meanwhile, there were plenty of reasons to worry during the voting
process – as expected, most concerns were related to voter turnout.
According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta , in the lead-up to the election, “a
clear and unambiguous directive was sent out to the regions: 70 and
70.” In other words, state officials at all levels of government were
instructed to ensure that voter turnout was no less than 70% and the
priority candidate received no less than 70% of the vote.

The objective set by the Kremlin was acted upon, says Nezavisimaya
Gazeta . As soon as voting began, victory reports started coming in
from the Russian Far East: almost everywhere, voter turnout was
higher than it had been for the parliamentary elections.

Predictably, the most active voters were military personnel (almost
all of them voted) and rural residents. Residents of large cities
proved to be far more lazy and irresponsible.

Among the regions, according to Gazeta , the highest turnout was (as
usual) reported by the ethnic republics.

Kabardino-Balkaria took the lead with turnout at 94.76%. It was
followed by Mordovia (91.29%), Ingushetia (91.09%), and Chechnya, of
course (89.65%). Unexpectedly, the lowest turnout levels were
recorded in the Irkutsk region (49%) and the Krasnoyarsk territory
(48.45%).

The authorities of the Irkutsk region had done all they could not to
be left behind: according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta , In the city of
Irkutsk even people without official residency permits were allowed
to vote at some polling stations. Neither maternity hospitals nor
general hospitals nor universities were overlooked. Cars fitted with
loudspeakers cruised the streets of Irkutsk all day, urging citizens
to go and vote. Nothing helped.

There had been warnings in the media: leaders of the regions with the
lowest voter turnout levels would face a real threat of the Kremlin’s
displeasure after the election.

At this point, the main target of this displeasure is said to be
Governor Alexander Khloponin of the Krasnoyarsk territory. The Vremya
Novostei newspaper notes that this is all the more upsetting because
before this election, the Krasnoyarsk territory had been considered
something like “the New Hampshire of Russia” – that is, an “average”
region on all counts. The same might be said of the Irkutsk region.

Vremya Novostei requested comments from Igor Bunin, director of the
Political Techniques Center. He explained that the changed situation
in these regions is due to the fact that “large industrial regions
like Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk are accustomed to elections with a
normal amount of competition, so they weren’t very happy about the
lack of options.”

Vremya Novostei points out that both are “oligarchic” regions.
Alexander Khloponin came from the Interros conglomerate; and the
Irkutsk region is “the fiefdom of Russia’s aluminum corporations.”

Nevertheless, according to the sources of Vremya Novostei , the
presidential administration even seemed glad to see these results.
The Kremlin considers them to be evidence that all the talk of
“directives from Moscow” is nothing more than the invention of
journalists with too much time on their hands.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta offers its own explanation of the uneven
distribution of election results among the regions.

As Nezavisimaya Gazeta emphasizes, incredibly high turnout in some
regions and complete voter apathy in others are not correlated in any
way with living standards or awareness of the law in those regions.
“The high turnout figures are not coming from regions where the
people are relatively prosperous and very aware of the Constitution.
They are coming from regions where the regional leaders are dominant
and the people are submissive.”

In the opinion of Nezavisimaya Gazeta , voter turnout in the
presidential election has become “a vivid indicator of the degree of
authoritarianism and enserfment of the citizenry.”

Nezavisimaya Gazeta also finds it necessary to warn that
“Turkmenistan style” voting is not without its dangers for the
regime.

“Turnout in excess of 90% has generally been reported in regions that
rely on subsidies from the federal government. It’s a kind of deal:
the federal government provides funding in return for regions
providing ballot papers filled out in the proper way.” The
arrangement is legally flawless, says Nezavisimaya Gazeta , but
politically dangerous: “If oil prices crash, could the Kremlin find
enough money to buy loyal votes? What if the next election becomes a
mechanism of blackmail?”

However, there are also some other points of view. Vremya Novostei
takes up a philosophical question: “Is all this evidence that Russian
democracy is vulnerable? Undoubtedly.” But whether we can say that
democratic institutions in Russia “are becoming totally degraded” –
that, according to Vremya Novostei , still remains to be determined.

What is actually being proposed as a basis for comparison? “Did we
witness a true triumph of democracy in 1996 and 2000? Or did the
threat of a communist or neo-communist revanche seem so realistic at
the time that it was acceptable to ‘overlook’ obvious departures from
the canons of democracy?”

What’s more, as Vremya Novostei recalls, four years ago voter turnout
was higher than this week’s figure – 69% versus 61%.

As for the “almost Central Asian” voting results – according to
Vremya Novostei , the first question to ask is this: “At whose
expense did the favorite improved his tally?”

Vremya Novostei says it was primarily at the expense of the
Communists: “In 2000, Gennadi Zyuganov received almost 30% of the
vote, but Communist candidate Nikolai Kharitonov got only half that
figure now.”

Then again, Vremya Novostei notes that it’s very difficult to answer
the following question: whether it’s a good thing that a substantial
proportion of Communist voters have chosen to vote for Putin this
time.

On the one hand, “from the standpoint of the market economy and
carrying out further reforms,” it seems to be a good thing. On the
other hand, “anyone who still remembers the history of the 20th
Century is bound to have somewhat unpleasant feelings at the sight of
universal love and approval for the incumbent regime.”

Novaya Gazeta observer Boris Vishnevsky points out: “The election of
1991 was an ‘election of hope.’ It seemed to be a logical extension
of the ‘springtime of democracy’ in 1990, and there were hopes that
this would melt the ice floes separating Russia from the normal
world, once and for all.” And Yeltsin was elected precisely because
those hopes were associated with him.

Moreover, throughout the following years many people remained
convinced that Yeltsin was a real democrat.

As a result, the idea of democracy as such was discredited. The
general impression was that the “conquests” of democracy amounted to
inflation, devaluation, a default, and wars in Chechnya.

On the other hand, this widespread conviction made it impossible for
a democratic opposition to Yeltsin to arise, so a Communist comeback
essentially became the sole alternative to the existing order.

It was fear of a Communist comeback that made it possible to increase
support for Yeltsin thirty-fold in 1996.

That was when the regime became convinced that obedient television
channels, “managed democracy,” and a strict hierarchy of governance
could work electoral miracles. These skills proved very useful in the
course of “Operation Successor.”

As a result of all this, by 2004 elections have become an empty
formality. Boris Vishnevsky says: “No wonder Russian voters are
completely apathetic about elections – just like Soviet voters were
apathetic about all elections that resulted in a convincing victory
for ‘the indestructible bloc of Communists and non-Party members.'”
People are aware that their votes don’t affect anything. Bitterly,
Vishnevsky asks: “Have we come all the way from hope to apathy in
only thirteen years?”

However, it is clear that the democratic press has still retained its
faith in the power of the written word, in these new conditions.

“How lovely all this is,” says Yevgeny Kiselev, editor-in-chief of
Moskovskie Novosti . “First Putin tramples the political ground so
that nothing can grow on it.” Some of those who decide to oppose the
regime become emigres, others find themselves in jail. And “more
cautious” politicians have preferred “to hide – since no one wants to
meet the same fate as Khodorkovsky. But when it became clear that the
election outcome was a foregone conclusion and therefore of no
interest to anyone, the regime suddenly became alarmed.

Titanic efforts were made to boost voter turnout (right up to
demanding absentee ballots from sick people before admitting them to
hospital, and even from arrestees before sending them to pre-trial
detention centers).

As Kiselev puts it, Putin wanted “to defeat himself” – that is, to
better his own result from four years ago (as he succeeded in doing).

Most of all, however, he was seeking “a completely different kind of
mandate” – carte blanche for any transformations he chooses to make –
and he could get this by winning an absolute majority of the vote
(not just the majority of those who actually voted, but a majority in
terms of eligible voters).

This second goal was not achieved, despite the extensive use of state
resources (or perhaps precisely because the efforts applied were
excessive).

In the words of Leonid Radzikhovsky, an observer for Versiya weekly,
the people decided to “slack off” in this election: “After all, this
is just about the only liberty that still remains to us.”

Radzikhovsky emphasizes that he sees no ideological opposition to the
regime in this line of conduct – in contrast to an election boycott,
as emphatically promoted in recent weeks by Yevgeny Kiselev on the
pages of Moskovskie Novosti . For Radzikhovsky, there is a clear
difference between “a boycotter who spends voting day lying on the
couch for the sake of an idea, with the sanction of Yevgeny Kiselev,”
and a “slacker.”

“The boycotter wants everyone else to do the same – he has a firm
opinion about how to engage in politics, and how we ought to put
Russia in order (with or without Putin).” But the “slacker” really
doesn’t want everyone else to slack off – since that would mean he’d
have to drag himself to the ballot box after all: “Because unfairness
is preferable to disorder, and he definitely doesn’t want to see a
repeat of 1991-93.”

To illustrate the popularity of this attitude, Versiya cited the
results of its own opinion poll. People were asked which of the
post-1917 regimes they view as the most stable.

Leonid Brezhnev’s stagnation era used to be ranked highest in polls
of this kind – until recently. But times change, and the views of the
electorate change with them: the top place is now held by – of
course! – Putin (37%). In second place – a real sensation, this! – is
Stalin (18%). Brezhnev has dropped to third (11%). He is followed by
Lenin (9%), Andropov (8%), and Khrushchev (4%). At the bottom of the
ranking are post-Soviet reformers Gorbachev (2%) and Yeltsin (1%). It
seems that democratic values have become greatly tarnished in the
eyes of Russian citizens.

Further details are added to the picture by a poll from Yuri Levada’s
Analytical Center, published in Novye Izvestia . It indicates that
the capitalist path of development has no more than 20% support in
Russia, while only around 9% of respondents identify themselves as
consistent liberals.

The Levada agency’s poll indicates that support for revising the
results of privatization has risen from 25% to 31% over the past four
years. The idea of returning to a state-regulated economy now has 29%
support; and restoring state subsidies for fundamental sectors of the
economy would be approved by 15% of respondents.

Meanwhile, only 13% of respondents were in favor of continuing
reforms and strengthening the positions of private capital. The
number of those in favor of private ownership of land has also
fallen, from 8% to 6%.

Leonid Sedov, senior analyst at the Levada Center, says Russia “now
has a combination of a conservative citizenry, unadapted to
modernization, with a gigantic bureaucracy concerned solely for its
own welfare.”

According to Novye Izvestia , it follows that over the next four
years Russia can expect to see existing attitudes being maintained.

However, most analysts believe Russian society is now on the
threshold of significant changes. It seems that almost everyone has a
different opinion about Putin’s policy program for his second term.

In Novaya Gazeta , Boris Kagarlitsky says: “Anyone who thinks the
next four years will simply be a continuation of the previous term is
mistaken.”

In his first term, says Kagarlitsky, Putin was engaged only in
entrenching his own power, without getting involved in economic and
social problems: “Even the battle against the oligarchs was not an
expression of any coherent strategic course: it was a matter of
removing everyone who was obstructing the Kremlin.”

This battle had little impact on the lives of ordinary citizens: for
some time now, they have thought of the war in Chechnya as something
happening far away; while the crackdown on the media and the
increasing influence of the security and law enforcement agencies
seem to have made a strong impression only on the West. Kagarlitsky
observes that terrorist attacks in Russian cities have probably
served to strengthen the regime rather than weakening it: “The more
frightened we are, the more we love our leaders.”

And so Putin has defeated his opponents, winning the election. “Now
the stage has been cleared for one political performer. What kind of
performance shall we see?”

Kagarlitsky notes that the president isn’t concealing his plans: he
proposes to continue the liberal economic reforms. Next in line are
reforms to housing and utilities, and the conclusive
commercialization of health care and education. The Russian market
will be opened up to Western companies. And so on.

The public, having voted for Putin, is hoping that stability will
continue – just like in the past four years, when there haven’t been
any noticeable reforms, but living standards have increased little by
little. However, those times are over.

The problems are building up, and something must be done about them:
the “good fortune of oil” cannot last forever.

The Kremlin team is ready for battle: with television broadcasting
brought under control and the opposition crushed, this is just the
right time to launch some unpopular reforms.

Kagarlitsky says: “During his first term in office, Putin wasn’t a
politician – he was an approval rating. A symbol, an office, whatever
– but not a state leader charting a course of his own.”

And that was the very reason for his overwhelming popularity. As the
media often observed, he was “the president of hope.”

But as soon as he starts taking action, the situation will change.

In the Gazeta newspaper, Andrei Ryabov says: “As soon as he takes the
first steps along the path of complicated, unpopular reforms, the
president will immediately encounter the risk of losing support.” The
almost-universal approval he has now will inevitably be eroded.

At present, it’s hard to predict what will happen after that. Ryabov
believes that Russian politics will be “greatly polarized.” The
groups that find their expectations cheated will start seeking
someone new to express and protect their interests. And the
requirements for a new leader will be fairly stringent: “To clearly
formulate a program for redistributing property, weakening the power
and influence of the rich, and so on.” Meanwhile, the president will
be forced to seek a new support base for his reforms, “since the
state bureaucracy is unlikely to become a reliable ally for the head
of state in this cause.”

So who might become a reliable ally for Putin, at a time when
attitudes are shifting again?

The Izvestia newspaper says: “It must be admitted that both the
Russian elite and the public have always cherished the idea of there
being some kind of ‘special cohort’ made up of the very purest,
bravest, and cleverest people – a kind of political special squad,
capable of moving those mountains which the ‘plebes’ don’t even dare
to approach.”

As everyone knows, Putin’s first term has seen an influx of
“siloviki” – people from a security and law enforcement background –
into the upper reaches of political power. Certain unnamed pollsters
have even calculated that the proportion of such people in the
highest echelons of government has risen from 5% in the Soviet era to
50% now.

In Yezhenedelnyi Zhurnal , Alexander Golts observes: “The Russian
president’s words about secret service agents having accomplished
their mission of infiltrating the government seemed like an
unsuccessful joke until recently – but now those words have become an
obvious reality.”

According to Izvestia , the mobilization of special service personnel
into politics is by no means an end in itself; rather, it is “a
search for that impetus which would be capable of launching reforms –
as seen from above.”

Then again, there is also a danger here: if the siloviki are “drawn
into” the market as well as politics, there will be more and more
“werewolves in uniform” corruption.

Needless to say, there would also be some threats to democracy.

As Alexander Golts emphasizes, the people from a secret service
background seriously claim that “they owe all their good qualities –
their matchless analytical capablilites, brilliant education, strong
will, courage – to the Soviet special service, the secret police of a
totalitarian state.”

Neither should we forget, says Golts, that it was a state “steadily
moving towards its own destruction.”

Apparently, there are still far more questions than answers.

The New York Times says: “We pose the familiar questions: is Mr.
Putin a reformer or a hard-liner? Is he his own man or is he
controlled by the dreaded siloviki, the former security officials who
have become the powers in the Kremlin? Was it the president or the
siloviki who arrested the oil mogul Mikhail Khodorkovsky, seized
control of the news media from private owners, purged and re-purged
the benighted dystopia of Chechnya?” ( Gazeta published a translation
of this article.)

One thing is clear, the New York Times observes sadly: “Vladimir
Putin is never going to become a Western-style, liberal-democratic
politician, no matter how much we wish it… A reforming liberal
leader in Russia is the Holy Grail of Kremlinology, but the search
for one is as misguided and hopeless as that for the relic of the
Last Supper.”

Russian analysts hold similar views. At any rate, in one of his
post-election interviews, Gleb Pavlovsky thoughtfully observed that
“a state cannot be better than its society.”

And those are the scales on which we will have to balance throughout
Putin’s second term in office.