Author: Yeghisabet Arthur

CONVERGENCE OF TURKEY-RUSSIA INTERESTS IN ECONOMY CAN POSITIVELY AFFECT NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT: EXPERTS

Trend
Jan 12 2010
Azerbaijan

Convergence of interests between Turkey and Russia in economy and
energy projects can have a positive impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, experts said.

"At present, Ankara is greatly concerned about one issue – the
formation of a new, more profitable transit configuration in its
interests. Certainly, the opening of borders with Armenia, as well
as settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are included in this
context, Azerbaijani political scientist Tofiq Abbasov said.

Jan. 12, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will visit Moscow
upon his Russian Counterpart Vladimir Putin’s invitation. During his
visit, Erdogan will mull further development of the Turkey-Russia
relations, particularly energy and economic issues discussed during
Putin’s Ankara visit held in August 2009, and the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will discuss the problem of
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement during his Armenia visit scheduled for
Jan. 13-14. He will meet with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and
Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian there, Russian Foreign Ministry
spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said.

"Exchange of views to continue the negotiation process on
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement in the context of intermediary efforts
taken by Russia to solve the conflict will be in the center of
attention," Nesterenko said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.

Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France, and the U.S. –
are currently holding the peace negotiations.

According to observers, the convergence of interests in the energy
sector can push two regional players to more active mediatory efforts
in the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Adviser on Eurasia
Geybulla Geybullayev believes the Russia-Turkey rapprochement
may positively affect the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Even if the
Russia-Turkey rapprochement will not solve the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem at all, it may positively affect it.

The prolonged Nagorno-Karabakh problem creates non-stability in the
region. But, the Turkey-Russia rapprochement in economic sphere will
lead to dialogue. If the Turkey-Russia Economic dialogue gets success,
then it may resolve several political problems, as well as realize
peace and stability platform in the Caucasus, Geybullayev told Trend
News over the telephone.

In mid-September 2008, Russia and Turkey launched implementation of
a plan to create "Platform for security and stability in the Caucasus".

Its aim was the desire of both countries to solve the territorial
conflicts in the Caucasus – between Turkey and Armenia and between
Armenia and Azerbaijan as soon as possible.

Armenian expert Armen Gevorgian said, the fact that Ankara and Moscow
discuss political problems and conflicts in South Caucasus would not
be so uneasy and potentially dangerous for Armenia, if gas and oil
pipelines had not been discussed together with these issues.

"The area for bargaining occurs. Russia, ascertaining the weakening of
its positions by allowing Turkey to the regional political processes,
can be seriously interested in the financial side of the question,"
Gevorgyan wrote in an article published by Armenian News’ website.

Gevorgian said Erdogan in Moscow will put the economic interests
of Russia on one scale, and the Karabakh conflict on the other one,
suggesting Putin to choose.

"Turkey strives to the Caspian region and Central Asia. Slowly and
thoroughly it overrides regional agenda, which includes Armenian
problems. Then it tightly links them with global political and economic
interests of the superpowers " the expert said.

The activity demonstrated by the Turkish and Russian politicians
in early 2010, must be beneficial for the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Mikhail Gusman, first deputy director
general of Itar-Tass news agency said.

"On the one hand, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s
visit to Moscow and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to Armenia
are in the regular agenda of the inter-state dialogue, between these
countries. On the other hand, the activity demonstrated by politicians
in early 2010, must be beneficial for such a long and painful for
Azerbaijan conflict to be solved," Gusman told Trend News.

Abbasov said if one tries to range the items of the Turkish political
agenda in order of priority, then all connected with economic
calculations of Turkey is urgent. "Therefore, in Moscow the sides
will try to attach positions on energy projects. Both parties are
ready to draw Yerevan in a zone of promising active transit routes,"
"Lider-TV" analytic group expert Abbasov told Trend News.

He said in future Ankara will be able to mediate in solving the
Georgian-Russian problems.

"The Karabakh problem is also on the list of urgent issues, because
its settlement will rather promote realization of more profitable
functional economic projects. But there are more questions than
answers within this territorial issue," Abbasov said.

Rufiz Hafizoglu contributed to the article.

EU INFORMATION CENTER TO OPEN IN ISTANBUL

PanARMENIAN.Net
11.01.2010 19:22 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ A European Union (EU) Information Center will be
opened in Istanbul on January 14. Istanbul Chamber of Trade (ITO)
and EU Turkey Delegation will sign a protocol regarding inauguration
of the information center.

The center will serve to give information to business world and
different segments of the society, the Anatolian News agency reported.

Turkey-EU: Turkey began full membership negotiations with the European
Union in 2005, having been an associate member of the EEC since 1963,
and having reached a customs union agreement in 1995.

ARMENIAN FAMILY’S ESCAPE TO AZERBAIJAN NEITHER CONFIRMED NOR REFUTED

news.az
Jan 11 2010
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani Defense Ministry Information about the escape of Armenian
citizen to the Azerbaijani territory is investigated, Azerbaijan’s
Defense Ministry.

Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry has neither confirmed nor refuted
information about the escape of Armenian citizen Yegishe Gevorkyan
to the Azerbaijani territory with his family.

"This information is being investigated. Additional information will
be provided during the clarification of details", spokesman for the
Azerbaijan Defense Ministry Teymur Abdullayev has said.

Armenian mass media report with reference to the news service for
the Armenian Defense Ministry that Gevorkyan with his wife and three
children trespassed the Armenian-Azerbaijani border at the Yeraskh
(Armenia)-Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan) section in a car.

LEGENDARY JAZZMAN GEORGE GARANIAN DIES AT 75

Aysor
Jan 11 2010
Armenia

Legendary jazzman, Armenian-born People’s Artist of Russia, George
Garanian died at the age of 75 this morning. The death from cardiac
arrest happened on tour in Russian city of Krasnodar, George Garanian’s
wife Nellie Zakirova told journalists.

George Garanian was one of the first Russian musicians who attracted
attention of Western world as part of the "jazz from the USSR". He
belonged to the first generation of Russian jazzmen who started
to perform after the World War II. As a musician (alto saxophone),
conductor and composer he always was among the best musicians. He
was the leader of country’s best big bands: "Melodia" (70s – 80s),
Moscow Big Band – 1992-95. He led the Municipal Big Band of Southern
Russian Krasnodar city.

Garanian recorded more music than any other jazz musician in Russia; he
performed at numerous international jazz festivals and toured Germany,
USA, Japan, Australia, Sweden, France and many other countries. "George
Garanian is phenomenal," said famous American critic John Hammond,
who heard George at the jazz festival in Prague.

Turkish and German foreign ministers discussed Karabakh conflict and
Armenian-Turkish normalization

2010-01-08 15:22:00

ArmInfo. On January 7, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met
with his German counterpart Guido Westerwelle, who is currently in
Ankara on a formal visit, APA reports quoting Anatolian news agency.
Davutoglu told journalists that the regional developments,
Afghanistan, the Middle East peace process, Iran’s nuclear program,
efforts to normalize Turkey-Armenia relations and the Nagorno Karabakh
dispute were high on agenda of the meeting. They discussed the Cyprus
issue in details and agreed that the Cyprus issue should not obstruct
Turkey- EU relations.

Armenian community to hold `co-patriarchy’ election

VERCÄ°HAN ZÄ°FLÄ°OÄ=9ELU
ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News

Tuesday, January 5, 2010 Turkey’s Armenian community has officially
applied to the Istanbul governorship to begin the election process for
a co-patriarch because of the illness of the current patriarch, Mesrop
II. Under the Armenian Church’s canon law, Mesrop II will retain the title
until his death even after the co-patriarch is elected. The electorate
is composed of 50,000 members of Istanbul’s Armenian community

The Armenian community is preparing for the second `co-patriarchy’
election in the history of the Turkish Republic.
Current Patriarch Mesrop II, the 84th to hold the office, is ill and,
in case of his death, the co-patriarch will assume the job after 40
days. According to the Armenian Church’s canon law, Mesrop II will
keep his title until his death. But because he is suffering from
dementia, it is necessary to elect a co-patriarch.
The official application for the elections has been made to the
Istanbul governor’s office although the election has raised debate
about the function of the patriarch. Some community members believe
the patriarch should act as a more symbolic figure.
When Mesrop II became patriarch, Turkey’s Armenian community was
largely inward looking. The patriarch drew attention through his
intellectual background, foreign education and modern point of view in
contrast to many of his predecessors during the republican period.
At the time, Mesrop II’s candidacy aroused much debate both in the
local Armenian community and the Turkish press. The community was
skeptical of a young cleric becoming patriarch while the Turkish press
focused on his political views.
Despite these questions, Mesrop Mutafyan won the election in 1998 and
became Mesrop II, Patriarch of Turkey’s Armenians. Besides handling his
spiritual duties and fulfilling his community responsibilities, Mesrop
II also played an active role in bringing the problems of the Armenian
community to Turkey’s agenda.
The year 2007 was a near-breaking point for Mesrop II; he retreated
into a deep silence following the assassination of his close friend, Hrant
Dink. Mesrop II was the one who suggested founding Agos, a bilingual
daily in both Turkish and Armenian that was run by Dink.
Despite his comparatively young age, the patriarch’s medical prognosis
is not encouraging. In an attempt to avoid upsetting the community,
his health issue was initially reported as a thyroid tumor. Afterward,
however, it was announced that the patriarch had dementia at the age
of 53.
Some remained suspicious of the diagnosis while others connected the
announcement with threats against the Armenian community. Nonetheless,
the patriarchate’s clerical council has been handling Mesrop II’s
duties for more than a year and has said it will look for a
co-patriarch because of the patriarch’s irreversible condition.
Regarding the recent events, the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic
Review spoke to Agos chief editor Etyen Mahçupyan and Seven
NiÅ=9Fanyan, an academic and author. Mahçupyan and NiÅ=9Fanyan
represent different faces of the Armenian community, both through
their ideas and their identities: Mahçupyan is from the Catholic
Armenian Church while NiÅ=9Fanyan is a member of the Apostolic
Armenian Church.

Suspicious circumstances
NiÅ=9Fanyan, who is also a close friend of Mesrop II, said he has
closely observed every step of the patriarch’s illness and said he
skeptical of the illness: `I have met the patriarch many times, =80¦
it is too hard for me to believe his illness has natural causes.’
NiÅ=9Fanyan agrees that there is a possibility that Mesrop II may have
fallen ill under suspicious circumstances. `This is a very serious
matter and it needs to be looked into. There might be people who want
Mutafyan to be in this condition. It is inevitable that there would be
people who want him to be weak as much as people who would want him to
be strong in both Turkish and Armenian communities.’
Mahçupyan spoke about Mesrop II’s intellectual vision and education
but said those qualities are insufficient for spiritually leading a
community. `At first, Mutafyan gave the impression that he would be
a patriarch to act in solidarity with his community but in time, he
founded a small clan among those in the community with whom he was
close. If he weren’t ill and there were elections again, he would only
be able to receive half the votes.’
`The position of patriarch should be a symbolic one’
Mahçupyan said the Armenian community has rapidly entered a new phase
following the Dink assassination, adding that the community’s
spiritual and daily affairs should be separated. `The position of
patriarch should be a symbolic one,’ said Mahçupyan.
`The person who would be patriarch could have a representative
authority like the [Turkish] president. He should act like a
counseling mechanism whose opinions would be asked when necessary,’
Mahçupyan said.
He claimed the patriarchate has become a political tool due to the
pressure Turkey exerts on minorities. `Whoever is selected as
patriarch will be turned into a political target; it is not possible
to prevent that,’ Mahçupyan said but emphasized that the community
was adapting to the situation.

A patriarch above the standards of others
In contrast to Mahçupyan’s criticism of Mesrop II, NiÅ=9Fanyan said
both Turkey and its Armenian community have been fortunate to have
him. `Through his courage and intelligence, Mesrop II went beyond the
usual standards Turkey’s Armenian community is used to seeing in
church leaders.’ He also praised the patriarch for changing the
perception that being afraid of one’s own shadow was a commendable
trait.
Regarding the patriarch’s religious and secular duties, NiÅ=9Fanyan
said: `Of course it is a source of contradiction and problem that the
Armenian community, which has a secular and dynamic structure, is
being represented by a religious position. On the other hand, I don’t
think it’s wise to say we don’t like it and [that we should] eliminate
such an influential mechanism of so many years.’
On the prospective new patriarch, NiÅ=9Fanyan said, `Let us hope
the community and church members who select the new patriarch will not
prefer the old policy of succumbing and silence in the name of peace
and accord in the country.’

Patriarch moves to Istanbul
Ottoman Sultan Mehmed II transferred the Armenian Pontificate from
Bursa to Istanbul after he conquered the city in 1453. He also brought
Episkopos Hovagim Golod, leader of the Armenian community in Bursa, to
Istanbul and assigned him as patriarch. The patriarch’s building is in
Istanbul’s Kumkapı neighborhood today.

news.az, Azerbaijan
Jan 6 2010

Kurd’s withdrawal from the parliament would affect Erdogan’s policy, analyst
Wed 06 January 2010 | 05:56 GMT Text size:

Zardusht Alizade Creation of the new pro-Kurdish party of democracy
and reconciliation in Turkey is a good news, says political analyst
Zardusht Alizade.

"I think this is a good news, because Kurds threatened to withdraw
from the parliament, which could have affected to Erdogan’s policy of
democratic opening, democratic development, dialogue, amnesty for
Kurdish rebels. They did so and the process started", he said.

According to him, the decision of the Constitutional Court of Turkey
to close down the Kurdish Democratic Society Party was actually a blow
to the policy of the Turkish prime minister.

"And Erdogan has criticized it. But thanks God that PKK leader Ocalan
said from jail that they should not go away and the Kurds joined
another party and returned to parliamentary activity. This is a good
sign. That is the dialogue with the Kurds will continue to evolve. And
the Kurds will understand the position of the Turkish government and
Turkish government, in turn, will have the opportunity to to influence
the process through peaceful democratic means and we may hope that the
militants will leave the field and join the parliament ", said Z.
Alizade.

According to him, it is a very good news not only for Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but also for Turkey.

"Imagine a situation when Karabakh separatists disavow the armed
resistance and start a political dialogue. Would it be good for
Azerbaijan? Of course, it would be good for Azerbaijan ", said the
political scientist.

Z. Alizadeh also commented on the recent statement by Turkish
President Abdullah Gul that the normalization of relations between
Yerevan and Ankara has no connection with the issue of Turkey’s
accession to the European Union and that at Ankara has included the
solution of frozen conflicts to the agenda of the Armenian-Turkish
relations.

"As for Gul’s statement, he was right to say that improving relations
with Armenia was not an official requirement of the EU. Simply Turkey
has decided to go on the European path of normalization of relations
with its neighbors. This is its own initiative. And I think that in
this situation it is quite right, sending a message of Armenia of
Putin and Medvedev that they use their relationship with the EU as a
lever to exert pressure on Turkey so that it has disavowed the claims
on the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. So for me it’s a
normal position of Turkey and the normal statement of the Turkish
president, " said the political analyst.

Meanwhile, he called it unserious that Sophia in the face of its State
Minister Bozidar Dimitrov voiced a demand for Turkey to pay $ 20
billion for the EU membership saying it is a "mandatory condition of
acceptance of Turkey into the European Union as compensation for the
property of displaced persons".

Financial requirements of the Bulgarians are absurd. This is
absolutely unserious ", he stressed.

1news.az

The Cilicia Symphony Orchestra: A New Year of Joyful Noise
Asbarez
Jan 5th, 2010

BY ANGELA SAVONIAN

>From the first downbeat and the sounds of `Christmas Festival’ by
Leroy Anderson and the beautifully decorated stage, I knew the evening
was special.

Fifty Six exceptional performers on the crowded multi level stage of
the First Baptist Church of Glendale filled the souls of all who
attended. Maestro Mikael Avetisian conducted with all of his being and
brought to life the entire evening for all who attended this
spectacular concert event.

In the busy and exhausting Christmas and New Year season all of us
need moments where we can forget the dismal economic downturn, H1N1,
politicians who lie and just be transported to a joyful place. The
birth of Christ brings us joy and hope of salvation, our children and
grandchildren and their excitement of the season warm us and great
cultural evenings transport us to another level of being. That was
what happened on Sunday night.

Tenor Edgar Brutyan, Sopranos Marine Abrahamyan-Abdasho and Narine
Ojakhyan sang with mastery and skill receiving bouquets and the
appreciation of the audience, but the evening was so special because
of the Cilicia Symphony Orchestra.

Maestro Mikael Avetisian with his orchestra transported all of us to a
joyous level. The selections of popular music, played with such
exuberance, had many of us dancing in our seats. Favorites from
Tchaikovsky, Khachaturian, Arno Babajanian and Komitas filled our
souls.

My heart soared with the Sabre Dance, transporting me to another
moment when the LA Philharmonic played under the direction of Varoujan
Kojian and I danced Lezginka with my family and dance ensemble on the
stage of the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion the music pulsing through us. I
envisioned Hungarian Gypsies dancing the Czardas, elegant couples
dancing to Viennese waltzes, and graceful Armenian women dancing our
Nazelie dances.

The music just moved my soul. The evening ended much too soon with
over four standing ovations and encores.

The community owes Bianca Manoukian and Teleculture 24 hour
International Television a world of thanks for her vision, courage and
willingness to present such a beautiful evening. I am still dancing…

Hurriyet, Turkey
Jan 2 2010

A 2009 look at the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation

Saturday, January 2, 2010
Vercihan ZiflioÄ?lu
ISTANBUL – Hürriyet Daily News

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated the location
where the protocols were signed. This version reflects the correction.

The Turkish-Armenian reconciliation process started in September 2008
with `football diplomacy’ and gained new dimensions in 2009. The
foreign ministers of the two countries signed historic protocols
despite the increased public pressure from both of their countries.
Although the borders have not been reopened due to the Azerbaijani
factor, 2010 looks like it will bring many new developments.

September 2008, when the national football teams of Turkey and Armenia
played a match in Yerevan, happened to be a historical milestone not
only for the two countries but also for me personally. I was in the
press box as an Armenian member of the Turkish press with the
industry’s leading names right beside me. Moreover, I was in a stadium
for the first time in my life. I sang the national anthems of both
countries with tears in my eyes. I only wanted to cheer when the game
started but I was afraid to be misunderstood. Suddenly, Fatih Ã?ekirge,
one of the master columnists of daily Hürriyet, held my hands and gave
me strength. My voice was crackling; I supported the team of Armenia
for the first time in my life even if I knew it was going to lose.

The `football diplomacy’ started a historical process of convergence
between Turkey and Armenia, after the tragic events of 1915 that have
scarred both sides. The two countries declared in April that they
agreed on a road map to open the borders and normalize relations.
Naturally, all hell broke lose in Turkey and Armenia.

The Armenian public opinion claimed Turkey has profited from the
protocols and the Serge Sarkisian’s administration compensated.
Demonstrations and hunger strikes were held in the capital Yerevan and
protests have emerged in countries where members the Armenian diaspora
reside.

In Turkey, criticisms were voiced on how Azerbaijan was abandoned in
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem it has with Armenia. Turkey closed its
Armenian border in 1993 to show support for Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has
been putting pressure on Turkey every chance it has to not open the
border before a solution can be reached.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an went to Baku and promised that the
protocols would not be approved by the Turkish Parliament before a
solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. However, no such direct
connection was made in the protocol drafts. Even though no progress
has been made in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the two sides decided
to sign the protocols before the return match in October.

The return match played in Bursa was under the shadow of tension
raised by the Azerbaijan issue among the Turkish public. Extreme
security measures were taken around the stadium. No tickets were sold
in order to keep the normal supporters outside and they were handed
out to select people just hours before the game. The accredited press
were granted access at the last minute. I was in Bursa again for duty
and I could not receive my accreditation papers. I found a high
official from the Football Federation of Turkey and told him the
importance of this match for me and that was how I managed to enter
the stadium.

The effort to bring Azerbaijani flags to the stadium by some created a
tense atmosphere before the game but things went smoothly when
Bursaspor supporters released white doves into the sky just before the
kick-off. The match in Bursa was less exciting for me compared to the
one in Yerevan. I experienced the real excitement a few days prior to
the match when the two foreign ministers signed the protocols.

Actually, the process experienced until the signing in October was as
exciting as that day too. I was in Yerevan in September when the
protesters were on hunger strike and I went to the central bureau of
the Tashnak Party to interview them. The place was surrounded with
meters-long banners and people were running around in hurry. The
hunger strike lasted for a month across from the Foreign Ministry
building. Petitions were signed in the streets against the protocols
and the resignation of Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian was
demanded. Despite all this, Nalbandian sat at the table in Switzerland
next to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet DavutoÄ?lu. I was following the
events from Istanbul instead of Yerevan this time. I remember seeing
Charles Aznavour, the world famous French artist of Armenian origin
and Armenia’s ambassador to Sweden, live television and looking really
stressed out. Also, an unexpected surprise was experienced on the day
of the signing as the process became stuck due to disagreements on the
protocol texts and only later the foreign ministers of the two
countries appeared and the protocols were signed. I took a deep
breath. I also understood that despite sharing the same lands for
centuries, the re-emergence of the two peoples would not be as easy as
expected.

hp?n=a-2009-look-to-the-turkey-armenia-convergence -2009-12-30

IRAN: YEAR IN REVIEW
Sevak Sarukhanyan

"Noravank" Foundation
28 December 2009

2009 can be regarded as one of the most important years in the
post-revolution history of Iran. The crisis in domestic policy, the
procrastination of the possible settlement of the Iranian-American
relations in the sphere of foreign policy, the maintenance and
consolidation of their stance in regard to nuclear issue which can
latter influence seriously the situation in Iran and its status. In
this article we speak about the developments in 2009 which, in our
opinion, were important for Iran.

Political crisis and the formation of the new opposition The
presidential elections marked the beginning of the gravest political
crisis in Iran since the Islamic revolution. The clashes between
opposition and security forces, casualties, the subsequent arrests,
finally brought to the formation of the new political field around
M.H.Mousavi which will pass the important stage of institutionalism in
the coming years. The continuing clashes between the demonstrators and
police can be of permanent character, because they serve from political
and moral points of view the movement headed by A.A.Hashemi-Rafsanjani,
M.H.Mousavi, M.Khatami and other hundreds of former and present
high-ranked figures which long-term objective is the removal of the
conservatives from the power.

As the main internal impulse the possible election of the new
spiritual leader of Iran can be mentioned and as a foreign one – the
possible strike on Iran by the US and Israel. Let us mention that the
possibility of the second variant is rising gradually today, taking
into consideration the fact that Tehran wrecks the talks with IAEA
and the "six". If one or two years ago it was difficult to say that
the US or Israeli air strike could cause the instability in domestic
political situation or revolution then, after the recent presidential
elections when the strong opposition was formed both in political
and spiritual circles, one can speak about such a possibility.

Iran-USA relations In 2009 it became finally clear that there would
be no significant changes in the relations between Iran and the new
US administration after the resignation of G.W. Bush. Though the
policy of the former US administration was obviously anti-Iranian,
it expressed the natural interests of the US, i.e. the establishment
of the control in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Today Tehran,
which rights and positions are not less valid than those of Washington,
also aspires to establish the control in the same region. Under such
conditions one cannot speak about rectification of the relations
between Iran and the US despite the fact who is the president of the
United States or Iran.

During the clashes in the streets of Tehran some media in the US
raised a question whether Obama should improve the relations with
that government. Negative answer to this question amid anti-Iranian
propaganda was obvious. But it should be mentioned that before the
presidential elections in Iran, before the clashes and casualties
there were no essential steps made by the Obama administration to
settle the relations with Iran. As a result, in May, during one of
the Sabbaticals the spiritual leader of Iran A. Khamenei said about
the policy of Obama: "One should judge about a person not by his
appearance or words but by his intentions and deeds. The later does
not differ from the ones there were before".

The Iranian-American confrontation will continue within next years and
the field of the restricted collaboration and the mutual clarifying
of the stances between two states will remain the same as it has been
in the recent years, i.e. Iraq and Afghanistan. Most probably the
parties will have to negotiate and partially cooperate in the processes
regarding Pakistan which are important both for Iran and the US.

Iran-Turkey relations 2009 has also been important from the point
of view of the development and setting more profound relations with
Turkey. The declarative relations between Tehran and Ankara which
were two years ago, this year have materialized. In January 2009
Turkish prime-minister R.T.

Erdogan stated in Brussels that it made no sense to speak about Nabucco
gas pipeline without Iran’s participation to the project. Iran is
of great importance for Turkey which aspires to become the biggest
energy transportation junction in the region. That state has huge gas
reserves, in future it will become the main gas supplier to Europe,
and the access to Central Asia through that country is much safer
than through Georgia and Azerbaijan. For Iran Turkey, in its turn,
is important because the most important rout of the Iranian gas to the
EU market goes through its territory, Turkey is an important regional
actor for whom the further destabilization of the situation in the
region and creation of independent Kurdistan are disadvantageous.

Consequently, Turkish-Iranian relations in 2009 entered into the
new stage which can be regarded as strategic partnership, and
the visit of Turkey’s prime-minister to Iran can be regarded as
historical. During the later Iran and Turkey came to an agreement
about the joint development of "South Pars" gas field, building of
the gas pipelines and roads, import of the Turkish engineering goods
to Iran, export of Iranian gas to Turkey. Besides, the parties agreed
to trade only by Iranian rial and Turkish lira, refusing from the US
dollar1, and to make steps to create industrial offshore zone near
the Turkish-Iranian border, probably in the district of Igdir 2.

Besides, Turkey undertook to buy from Iran 35 billion m3 of natural
gas from 2011 which would allow Ankara to provide the functioning of
Nabucco without Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries3.

Nuclear issue In 2009 Iran made the most important step in negotiations
round the nuclear weapon issue, i.e. in November Iran "officially and
finally" refused to cease the works on uranium enrichment, which, of
course, would bring the negotiations with the "six" to a dead-lock and
the ways to escape it must be found rather quickly. This is conditioned
by president M. Ahmadinejad’s statement that Iran is going to build
new uranium enrichment plants which may worsen the situation.

In Israel the adherents of striking the Iranian nuclear infrastructure
stepped up their activity, their voices become louder and more
acceptable for society and various circles of political forces. Of
course, one cannot exclude that M. Ahmadinejad continues the classical
Iranian policy of "hold talks as long as you can", and his aim is to
gain much more from international community instead of dismissing
uranium enrichment, but at the same time Tehran is approaching the
line on the other side of which the creation of the nuclear weapon is
seen. The coming year will be rather important for Iranian nuclear
programme. It is not excluded that the events for Iran may develop
in unfavorable scenario.

Economic policy In 2009 Iran managed to overcome in general the
consequences of the global economic crisis. Though there are still
many problems in the country. Trying to avoid the serious economic
crisis in the country the Iranian authorities initiated the refunding
of the national banks demanding from them to extend terms of credit
repayments to physical bodies and legal entities and to continue to
provide low-rate credits.

As a consequence, according to data for October 2009 the sum of the
outstanding credits has been $38 billion and this may cause serious
problems in the future.

At the same time, in 2009 the important process of banks
nationalization has been initiated in Iran and this process, just
from economic point of view, purposes to increase the capitalization
of the banks, their competitiveness and effectiveness of management.

Particularly, 5% of Mellat, Tejarat and Saderat shares, which are now
in circulation on Tehran stock market, has been put up for sale. By
March 2010 other 8% will have been put up for sale. Let us mention
that main shareholder become the companies and persons, directly
connected Iranian political and spiritual elite.

But from the prospective point of view the important event for Iran
was the opening of the Iranian oil market on the Kirsh Island on
October 19 which preparatory works had been carried out for several
recent years. Though the trading on that market is rather small but
Chinese and Indian companies has already expressed the wish from 2010
to buy Iranian oil on Iranian oil market using euro and Iranian rial.

It is not clear yet how the functioning of the new oil market will
influence global economy but the beginning of its functioning at least
from informational point of view impacts the US positions which NYSE
is the world leader in oil trading and provides to some extent the
dominance of the US dollar.

1The same joint decision was made by Turkey and China.

2According to the Minister of Industry of Turkey N. Ergun Syria and
Armenia can also join that zone.

3At the same time in November Turkish government allowed Swiss EGL
(Elektrizitats-Gesellschaft Laufenburg) Company to export gas from
Iran to Europe using its territory.