​The EU suffered a major loss in Nagorno-Karabakh

Al-Jazeera, Qatar
Nov 23 2020
 
 
 
The EU suffered a major loss in Nagorno-Karabakh
 
Brussels did little, as Moscow scored yet another strategic victory on the EU’s eastern periphery.
 
Borut Grgic
Borut Grgic is the founder of the TransCaspian Project, a platform aimed at promoting political and business ties between the EU and the Caspian region.
 
23 Nov 2020
A service member of the Russian peacekeeping troops walks near a tank near the border with Armenia, following the signing of a deal to end the military conflict between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces, in the region of Nagorno-Karabakh on November 10, 2020 [Reuteres/Francesco Brembati]
 
Earlier this month Russian President Vladimir Putin huddled with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and in a few hours hammered out a peace agreement to stop the month-long Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The peace deal is incredibly short, explicit and to the point. Armenia was spared a total defeat. Azerbaijan did well. And Russia won.
 
Armenia agreed to a full retreat. Pashinyan sent an emotional message to his nation on Facebook, where he expressed sadness and regret over ending the war, but said this was the best logical choice. Naturally so. The Armenian forces were losing multiple villages a day and were pushed out of Shusha, a strategic town along the corridor connecting Stepanakert, the Nagorno-Karabakh capital, to Armenia.
 
Less obvious are President Aliyev’s calculations. Backed by Turkey, and on good terms with Moscow, Azerbaijan’s army was advancing fast. From a military standpoint, Azerbaijan could have gone for a total military victory, which would have avoided a messy post-war peace wrangling. But Aliyev is no warmonger. He is a realist and a political pragmatist.
 
Liberating some of the occupied territories through military advancement was enough to give Aliyev the upper hand in future peace process, and secure him a place in the history books of his nation as a leader who unified the country. He probably also knows Russia would never allow a total defeat of Armenia, and that Putin has his own red lines.
 
The bottom line is that Aliyev played his cards well, and pushed with his military to the limit without collapsing the strategic regional equilibrium. Azerbaijan managed to get a binding commitment from Armenia to a full military withdrawal from all its territories and the right to return of displaced Azerbaijanis to Nagorno-Karabakah, which for the time being will be under Russian peacekeepers’ watch. It also secured a corridor to its enclave, the Nakchivan Autonomous Republic, running through Armenian territory.
 
Baku demonstrated its military superiority to Yerevan and scored victories which came as a vindication of sorts for the brutal defeat Azerbaijan suffered at the hands of Armenian forces in the 1992-1994 war when it lost Nagorno-Karabakh. And it also managed to make its close ally, Turkey, a party to any future final settlement.
 
Although Armenia was the defeated side in this conflict, the biggest loser is actually the European Union. It failed, yet again, and in a spectacular fashion, to be a relevant player and a peace broker on its eastern periphery.
 
Having helplessly looked on as Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and diced up Ukraine in 2014, the EU once again sat on the sidelines, as Putin scored yet another geostrategic victory in the region. With Russian troops now in Nagorno-Karabakh, Putin has made himself the de-facto custodian of the South Caucasus corridor, which links Europe to Central Asia and Iran and is an important transit point for Caspian oil and gas to European and world markets.
 
The corridor has always been a relevant trading throughway for goods coming and going between Europe and Asia. Alexander the Great understood this. So did the Ottomans. Putin took note of history and played his cards well.
 
After the fighting broke out, European foreign policy managed no more than a few statements urging all sides to lay down weapons and return to the negotiating table. The EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, talked obsessively about the need to resume the peace process under the umbrella of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which has failed to resolve the conflict over the past three decades. French President Emmanuel Macron could not get past a bicker-fest with Turkey over its backing of Azerbaijan, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel made calls to Baku and Yerevan that led to nothing.
 
And nobody, nobody heard what Aliyev was saying from the very start of the war: that Azerbaijan was not going back to the negotiating table until it had its land back, or at the very least a timetable from Armenia for a full withdrawal of its forces. The EU underestimated Aliyev’s resolve and the Azerbaijani army’s readiness: a spectacular failure of intel.
 
By refusing to play a more direct and hands-on role in the South Caucasus, the EU is also missing out on the opportunity to confront China’s growing influence deep in Central Asia. But not all is lost, and the EU still has a chance to regain a foothold in the South Caucasus through Georgia.
 
Brussels should reach out to Tbilisi and upgrade its existing economic and military partnership with Georgia. There is obviously the Russian factor to take into account, which makes it an urgent priority for the EU to begin working on the final status talks for the disputed regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
 
As long as the legal status of these regions remains in limbo, and under the Russian dictate, any deepening of relations with Georgia would remain difficult. By resolving these frozen conflicts, however, the EU would remove Russia’s leverage, not only in Georgia, but also further afield in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
 
Europe should also insist on playing a role in the future talks on Nagorno-Karabakh’s status. Brussels could jump the gun on this point, and begin consultations with Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as offer Baku the option of an EU-led interim administration for Nagorno-Karabakh.
 
Anything short of a grand ambition at this point is synonymous with the EU’s capitulation to Russia once again. This is not the first time it has failed to act strategically, but how many more chances will the union get before its brand becomes a symbol for irrelevance the world over?
 
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
 
 
 

Russian FM, Defense Minister in Yerevan for talks on Karabakh truce implementation

JAM News
Nov 21 2020
    JAMnews, Yerevan

Heads of the Russian Defense and Foreign Ministry Sergei Shoigu and Sergei Lavrov have arrived in Armenia to hold talks on the implementation of the truce and the introduction of Russian peace keepers in the Karabakh conflict zone.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has already met with the Russian Defense Minister. Shoigu said that the main task of Russia, set by President Vladimir Putin, is to prevent bloodshed in Nagorno-Karabakh:

“There is a lot of work to be done to establish peace. And we undoubtedly intend to realize this task. In addition, we intend to discuss a number of issues related to the life and work of our peacekeepers, as well as, naturally, our further cooperation both in the military and in the military-technical sphere. We have arrived with a large program and we hope for its implementation.”

Shoigu said that the Russian peacekeepers were deployed in the conflict zone as soon as possible and that the process ended the day before yesterday. 23 observation posts have been established, Russian peacekeepers control the road leading to Stepanakert, the Lachin corridor and ensure movement along these routes.

Nikol Pashinyan thanked the Russian minister for his support. According to him, during the war, the Armenian government felt the support of Russia:

“Of course, there was a difficult period before the war, but now is a more difficult time, we hope that during this period we will be able to deepen our cooperation with the Russian Federation, including in the field of security, not only security, but also in the field of military-technical cooperation”.


Experts: Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Is Christian Genocide Under the Pretext of War

National Catholic Register
Nov 17 2020

NEWS ANALYSIS: Memories of the genocide at the hands of the Ottoman Turks 100 years ago are still fresh.

Under duress, Armenia signed a Russian-brokered peace deal with Azerbaijan. The territory in turquoise, including the town of Shushi (in gray oval) was taken by Azeri military force in November and retained in the peace agreement of Nov. 10. Shushi has been part of the Armenian ‘cradle of Christianity’ for centuries; Armenia adopted Christianity even before Rome did. (photo: Emreculha)

Under the cover of a global pandemic, benefiting from U.S. self-absorption during the presidential election, a battle that raged for 44 days against a compact community of Armenians — some 150,000 people territorially enclosed by Azerbaijan — has ended. 

The region under siege is widely known as Nagorno-Karabakh, but its citizens voted to call it the Republic of Artsakh in 2017. 

Describing it as an “unspeakably painful agreement,” Armenia’s prime minister signed a peace deal Nov. 9 with the aggressor, Azerbaijan. In Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, people responded by rioting in Parliament, while people danced in the streets in Baku, Azerbaijan’s seaside capital.

Russian President Vladimir Putin brokered the detailed cease-fire, which requires Armenia to retreat from about one-third of historically Armenian homeland, basically rewarding Azerbaijan for a massive military onslaught backed by Turkey. 

Long- and short-range missiles, internationally banned cluster bombs, suicide drones and mercenaries brought by Turkey from Syria overwhelmed the Armenian side. Evidence of crimes against humanity has emerged: Azeri soldiers filmed themselves shooting a wounded soldier in the head. Hospitals were targeted as well as churches.

The Congressional Armenian Caucus Nov. 10 demanded accountability for war crimes committed by Azerbaijan and Turkey against Artsakh and Armenia.

Pope Francis pleaded for dialogue between the two countries following the Angelus prayer on Nov. 1, three weeks after he prayed for a truce. But at that time, the aggressors did not yet have a coveted prize, the town of Shushi (or Shusha), which was secured by the Armenian side in a 1994 cease-fire of hostilities that raged for two years.

On Nov. 8, Azerbaijan announced the military takeover of Shushi, strategically located, culturally treasured and still scarred by a massacreinstigated by Azeri troops against the majority Armenian community in 1920. That’s when Azerbaijan stopped fighting.

 

Ongoing Genocide?

To educated observers and the victims themselves, this year’s aggression has all the markings of an ongoing Christian genocide: initiated by Ottoman Turks in 1895; intensified by the Young Turk Movement between 1915 and 1923; continued against Greeks in the 1950s; and now reignited as part of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s dream of restoring Ottoman power and territory. 

Evidence of genocide is especially petrifying to the Armenians because it suggests Azerbaijan and Turkey will not stop until they’ve “cleansed” this cradle of Christianity of its indigenous people. 

Proof of the connection is startlingly overt: When Azerbaijan dropped a bomb on Oct. 8 through the dome of Shushi’s Holy Savior Cathedral (known to Armenians as Ghazanchetsots), one of the largest Armenian churches in the world, they targeted a sacred place damaged in the notorious 1920 attack when Azerbaijani soldiers set the Armenian half of the town on fire, killing, raping and driving out its inhabitants. 

This past is hidden, and the intentional obliteration of Armenia’s Christian culture denied, by the powerful family that has controlled Azerbaijan for two generations, the Aliyevs. 

To comprehend this new threat of ethnic cleansing and its geopolitical implications, the Register listened to and consulted experts assembled by In Defense of Christians (IDF) a Washington-D.C. based organization.

 

‘Three-Part Unity’ of Aggression

Robert Avetisyan, Artsakh’s designated representative to the United States, describes forces arrayed against the new state as a “triple unity” comprised of neighboring Azerbaijan, Turkey, and international terrorists transported by Turkey from Syria. He sees Turkey, with NATO’s second-largest army after the U.S., as “instigating attacks and pushing Azerbaijan,” which prepared for war by spending its “easy oil money stockpiling state-of-the-art arms and drones to use against us.” 

Although Turkey is not mentioned in the peace deal, President Reytip Erdogan publicly declared that Turkey and Azerbaijan, both once part of the Ottoman Empire, are “two states, one nation,” while Artsakh belongs to Azerbaijan’s “occupied territories.”

Speaking to the Register by phone from Artsakh, Avetisyan contended that Turkey brought extremist mercenaries from Syria “by the thousands” to fight, making it a conflict “between Artsakh and international terrorism.” He said the population withstood a veritable “blitzkrieg” of weaponry.

Another regional actor in the mix is Israel, Azerbaijan’s main weapons’ supplier. Last month, Armenia withdraw its ambassador to Israel to protest its support for the Azeri arms buildup. (Between 2016-2019, Israel sold $625 million worth of arms to Azerbaijan, compared to Turkey’s direct sales of $32 million.) The convergence of interests between Israel and Azerbaijan relates to Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran. Iran borders Azerbaijan to the South; Baku gave Israel access to its airfields for potential use against Iran, according to Israeli sources.

While the U.S. Congress overwhelmingly passed a resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide last year, Israel has not recognized it. Azerbaijan and Turkey adamantly reject it ever happened.

Pope Francis was the first pope to publicly recognize the mass murder of Armenians as the 20th century’s “first genocide” in June 2016.

 

Unfinished Business

Asked about Turkey’s motives, American Enterprise Institute defense analyst Michael Rubin is blunt: “primarily, animus toward Armenians as a people and Christianity as a religion.” 

Rubin told an IDF news conference that Erdogan has no historical claim to Artsakh and no security excuse for fomenting war. Besides being anti-Christian, his motives are political and nationalistic: “Turkey is on the warpath, and it will get worse as Erdogan deflects attention from his failing economy and nears the anniversary of the Turkish republic” founded in 1923.

Aram Hamparian, executive director of the Armenian National Committee of America, summarized, “What’s at stake here is Erdogan trying to finish the work of 1915.”

Recounting the Armenian peoples’ losses at Turkey’s hands as “two-thirds of our people and nine-tenths of our territory,” Hamparian reframed the current situation in the South Caucasus as “not a conflict but a crime,” requiring a swift response from the West. 

A representative of the Greek American community agreed. “We’re approaching the centennial of a republic built on the bones and blood of Christian minorities. Today, Artsakh is an inconvenience to Turkey’s idea of dominance in the region,” said Endy Zemenides, executive director of the Hellenic American Leadership Council. 

 

What to Do?

For Zemenides, the U.S. government should immediately impose sanctions on Turkey, triggered by Ankara’s violation of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The 2017 law is directly related to Russia, but Turkey violated CAATSA when it took delivery of a Russian-made S-400 air defense system in August 2019. 

“It’s time to hold Turkey accountable because, if that’s not done, Turkey believes it can get away with everything it’s doing in Artsakh right now,” Zemenides told the Register. Last month, seven U.S. senators introduced legislation to investigate human-rights violations by Azerbaijan and Turkey “throughout the South Caucasus.”

Hamparian said not only does the U.S. need to condemn Azerbaijan’s crimes, it needs to end all military aid to the rogue nation: “Even as bombs are falling on Artsakh, they are getting aid!” 

Several experts also insisted that the vast network of highly-paid Washington lobbyists working on behalf of Turkey and Azerbaijan should be named and shamed. Zemenides described them as following the maxim, “Whatever money can’t buy, more money can buy.” 

 

Recognition for Artsakh?

Artsakh official Avetisyan believes recognition of the republic’s very existence would be most beneficial, a scenario comparable to American recognition of Kosovo as an independent state in 2008 in order to blunt Serbia’s designs on destroying it. Rubin sees this as a way to give the U.S. government a familiar model. Rep. Grace Napolitano, D-Calif., has called for recognition of Artsakh.

But advocates told the Register they ran into a wall when they tried to get the U.S. State Department to acknowledge the unfolding disaster for Armenians in the South Caucasus — with Washington preoccupied by the presidential election. 

Although France, Russia and the United States issued a joint statement calling for a halt to regional “hostilities” last month, it was hardly convincing. The three nations comprised the triumvirate that mediated a truce in 1994, under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). In fact, this month’s peace agreement signed by Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia excluded the U.S. and France from future participation, de jure and de facto

 

Diplomacy: The Magic Word

Against the assumption that Iran would line up with Azerbaijan based on religion — Azerbaijan is one of the few countries where, like Iran, the Muslim majority practices a form of Shiite Islam — in fact, Iran is sensitive to Armenian culture. 

AEI’s Rubin explained to the Register, “When I lived in Iran, I lived in the Armenian quarter of Isfahan. The Armenians settled in Isfahan more than 400 years ago, after Shah Abbas I forcibly relocated them there. The area was dotted with Armenian churches, Armenians groceries and posters marking the commemoration of the Medz Yeghern [Great Crime, as Armenians call the 1915-23 genocide]. The Persian or Iranian shahs always interacted with Armenians, understood and appreciated Armenian culture, and even took prominent Armenians to be their trusted advisers. Likewise, Russia and Armenia have always had cultural affinity — and Armenia, of course, hosts a Russian military base.” 

“Tehran and Washington need not be friends or allies to find mutual interest in countering Baku’s aggression,” Rubin continued. “Aliyev showed his true colors by bringing in Turkey and Turkish-backed Syrian mercenaries. Wherever Turkey’s Syrian mercenaries go, al Qaeda and the Islamic State follow, and so this highlights common interest.”

Rubin added, “Iran and the United States might be enemies, but they have also made common cause. After the fall of the Taliban, for example, both Tehran and Washington worked together to help establish the new Afghan government. Both Iran and the United States also largely were on the same side in the fight against the Islamic State.” 

“What I am saying is that many countries can see what is happening to Armenia is wrong and work to reverse it, even if they agree on nothing else. That’s what diplomacy is all about,” Rubin said. He also believes that within the American policy-making establishment, “people have woken up to the threat of Turkey.”

Regarding Azerbaijan, the AEI analyst explained, “Azerbaijan long had friends because of its post-2001 anti-terror cooperation, but the fact that they now link up with Syrian mercenaries to attack Christian villages and churches suggests that they are no longer a security partner.” 

Heydar Aliyev, a member of the Soviet Politburo and high-ranking KGB official (according to the CIA), ruled Azerbaijan from 1993 until his death in 2003. (The first contemporary suppression against Armenians occurred in 1988.) His son, Ilham, inherited the country — and an offshore network of mega-wealth built from corruption, according to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. Three years ago, President Aliyev appointed his wife first vice president.

Rubin said, “They are nothing more than just another family-run dictatorship in which the United States need not have a continuing interest.”

President of Artsakh receives Commander of Russian peacekeeping mission

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 16:59, 13 November, 2020

STEPANAKERT, NOVEMBER 13, ARMENPRESS. President of Artsakh Arayik Harutyunyan received Commander of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, Lieutenant-General Rustam Muradov, the President said on social media.

“Today I received commander of the Russian peacekeeping contingent, Lieutenant-General Rustam Muradov who arrived in Artsakh for controlling the ceasefire regime. During the meeting we exchanged views on concrete issues relating to the implementation of the responsible mission by the peacekeeping contingent”, the President of Artsakh said.

 

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

Yerevan protesters demand resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan

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 14:14,

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 11, ARMENPRESS. Hundreds of protesters, including opposition lawmakers and politicians from both parliamentary and non-parliamentary political parties, who gathered at Yerevan’s Freedom Square despite the martial law prohibiting public assemblies, have termed their demands: they seek the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan because of the conditions of the Karabakh armistice. The demonstrators say the PM’s resignation is the only solution to the current situation.

ARF Supreme Body representative Ishkhan Saghatelyan, Prosperous Armenia Party lawmakers Arman Abovyan, Naira Zohrabyan, Iveta Tonoyan, Shake Isayan, Fatherland Party leader and former NSS Director Artur Vanetsyan, Republican Party member Karine Ajemyan and many others delivered speeches at the rally.

Dozens of demonstrators are detained by police. Republican Party member, former Vice Speaker of Parliament Eduard Sharmazanov is among them.

Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan

Armenia claims it shot down Azerbaijani Bayraktar TB2 combat drone

Defence
Nov 8 2020
 
 

ByDylan Malyasov
Nov 8, 2020
 
 

On 8 November, the spokesperson for Armenia’s Defense Ministry, Shushan Stepanyan, has reported that its rockets shot down an Azerbaijani Bayraktar TB2 combat drone.

At the announcement, Shushan Stepanyan said that at around 13:40 Armenian Air Defense units of the Defense Army shot down another enemy Bayraktar TB2 in the southeastern direction in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Bayraktar TB2 is a Turkish-made medium altitude long endurance unmanned combat aerial vehicle that activity uses Azerbaijan during an ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.

 

The current conflict is the worst the region has seen since the original devastating quarrel in the 1990s. Despite Russian-mediated ceasefires, unprecedented reports of the destruction of military hardware are emerging from the front line.

Unlike previous conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh that saw death tolls above 30,000, Azerbaijan has made major advances with significantly fewer casualties. After capturing a series of villages and strategic bridges, Azerbaijan’s Armed Forces occupied the Nagorno-Karabakh region’s southern border with Iran.

On Sunday, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said his country’s forces had taken Shusha, the second-largest city in the Nagorno-Karabakh.

TURKISH press: Armenia should end occupation, convinced to negotiations, Erdoğan tells Putin

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomes his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the Beştepe Presidential Complex during a visit in Ankara, on April 03, 2018. (Turkish Presidency via AA)

The Armenian government should be convinced to the negotiating table through common sense, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin as the two leaders discussed recent regional developments including Nagorno-Karabakh in a phone call on Sunday.

A statement by the Turkish Presidency's Directorate of Communications said that Erdoğan underlined that Armenia should withdraw from Azerbaijani lands they have occupied.

Azerbaijan's counter-operation is limited to its own territory, the Turkish president said.

Erdoğan emphasized that it is of key importance to find a lasting solution to this conflict and bring stability to the region.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu also held a phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

Armenpress: 3 civilians killed in intense overnight Azeri bombardment of Shushi and Stepanakert

3 civilians killed in intense overnight Azeri bombardment of Shushi and Stepanakert

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 09:08, 6 November, 2020

STEPANAKERT, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. The peaceful settlements in Artsakh were again under heavy Azeri bombardment overnight November 5-6, leading to victims among the civilian population, the State Service of Emergency Situations of Artsakh said.

“The Azerbaijani-Turkish forces opened intense gunfire at the town of Shushi and the city of Stepanakert during the entire night. Several residential homes in Shushi were set ablaze as a result of the bombardment, and destructions occurred in the capital city as well. The rescue squads of the Artsakh State Service of Emergency Situations are working at the scenes. According to preliminary information three civilians were killed in the bombardments. Other details are being clarified.”

The total death toll among the civilian population of Artsakh since September 27 reached at least 53.

Editing and Translating by Stepan Kocharyan

Armenia accuses Azerbaijan in committing military crimes in Nagorno Karabakh during CIS session

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 14:29, 6 November, 2020

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. During the session of the CIS Council of Heads of Government, Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Mher Grigoryan accused Azerbaijan in committing military crimes in Nagorno Karabakh with the support of Turkey, reports TASS.

“Currently the aggression against Nagorno Karabakh continues. Moreover, it is being carried out by the direct military-political support of Turkey and involvement of terrorists from Syria and Libya. The Azerbaijani forces are using the methods of terrorist groups, such as tortures, shootings and beheadings of prisoners of war, encroachments on bodies of those killed. There are a number of military crimes on the conscience of the Azerbaijani leadership”, the Armenian deputy PM said.

Editing and Translating by Aneta Harutyunyan

Archaeological camp of Artsakh’s Tigranakert significantly damaged by targeted Azerbaijani strike

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 19:08, 6 November, 2020

YEREVAN, NOVEMBER 6, ARMENPRESS. Archaeological camp of Artsakh’s Tigranakert town has been significantly damaged by a targeted Azerbaijani strike. Two of the four cottages have been destroyed, the others have been damaged, Tigranakert’s expedition leader Hamlet Petrosyan told ARMENPRESS.

Days ago someone had seen this atrocity and informed Petrosyan. Later a group of volunteers that tries to examine the situation of the monuments of Artsakh, visited the place and saw that the bomb had landed near the cottages, destroying two and damaging the other two cottages.

According to Petrosyan, they visit there only in the summer. He thinks Azerbaijanis targeted it deliberately, thinking that there might be people there. ‘’An 18th century citadel is next to it, which is a museum and is much better seen. I think they might have thought that there might be people in the cottages’’, Hamlet Petrosyan said.

https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1034181.html?fbclid=IwAR1p1lif8fE0uTOx4mW-p5SSdEuRdWGdaA2_gcJUUd4a51uc0bTVnO8u2wE