Evidently, Russia calculates that “any economic and infrastructure agreements take on a political nature. If it is about transport corridors, it means security and some sort of cooperation between the Armenian and Azerbaijani ethnic groups,” Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian Council on International Affairs, put it.
Kortunov estimated that although Monday’s agreements did not address the core issue, namely, Nagorno-Karabakh’s status as such, which is “hanging in the air,” the sides are moving in the right direction. To quote the influential Moscow-based think tanker,
“Even the limited agreements that have been reached make it possible to say that the meeting (on Monday) was successful. Transport was taken as a neutral, technical aspect of relations. With the first step made, the second and thirds steps are to follow. So, the opening of transport communications should be followed by issues of the exchange of prisoners, return of refugees, and co-living of two ethnic groups.”
But things are not going to be velvet smooth. For a start, Turkey’s centrality needs to be defined to delimited — depending on how one looks at it. According to Kortunov, Turkey’s absence (non-participation) in the Moscow dialogue is quite demonstrative. He explains tactfully, “It means that Turkey is an important neighbour that cannot be absolutely excluded from what is currently going on in the South Caucasus but the Russian leadership has once again demonstrated that the key role in this settlement and post-settlement steps will be played by Moscow.”
For the present, there is a plausible explanation to keep Turkey out and looking in, while Moscow assembles the peace blocks. Turkey is not liking it but is being pragmatic about it. But if Ankara succeeds in establishing diplomatic relations with Yerevan, the calculus changes overnight. Equally, there are two other critical variables — the political future of Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and, second, the Aliyev’s dalliance with Turkish President Recep Erdogan.
Again, Iran cannot be liking its exclusion either. The fact of the matter is that on the present disjointed regional tapestry, Armenia and Azerbaijan have no choice but to use Iranian territory for transit, and Tehran is unwilling to give up that geopolitical trump card.
Above all, while as of now, the western powers remain passive, the attitude of the Joe Biden administration remains the ‘X’ factor. Last month, the US Congress legislated that “not later than 90 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Director of National Intelligence shall submit to the congressional intelligence committees a written assessment regarding tensions between the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan, including with respect to the status of the Nagorno Karabakh region.”
The US Congress has specifically directed the DNI to provide assessment on the following lines:
- An identification of the strategic interests of the United States and its partners in the Armenia-Azerbaijan region;
- A description of all significant uses of force in and around the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan during calendar year 2020, including a description of each significant use of force and an assessment of who initiated the use of such force;
- An assessment of the effect of United States military assistance to Azerbaijan and Armenia on the regional balance of power and the likelihood of further use of military force; and,
- An assessment of the likelihood of any further uses of force or potentially destabilising activities in the region in the near- to medium-term.
Clearly, Washington is gearing up for a geopolitical struggle in the Caucasus. Moscow probably senses this. And that would explain the haste with which it is pushing infrastructure development in South Caucasus to crate equities, whilst the Biden Administration is still in its infancy. Russia is pursuing a trajectory to strengthen its position while also keeping the eventuality of having to engage with the western powers at some point within the framework of the Minsk Group.
President Putin touches base with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron every now and then, the two countries being co-chairs (along with the US) of the Minsk Group. Conceivably, Russia may be open to working with the West on Nagorno-Karabakh but safeguarding its legitimate interests. The big question is whether in the present security environment, that is a realistic expectation.
Meanwhile, the US analysts have been lately highlighting China’s growing involvement in the South Caucasus. In the World Bank’s estimation, since 2005, Chinese trade turnover with Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia increased around 2,070 percent, 380 percent and 1,885 percent, respectively.
Chinese investments are also increasing, given the BRI’s seamless potential to generate business. With the recent completion of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad, China’s footprint will rise further and such economic presence would eventually translate as political influence.
The geographical location of the South Caucasus countries makes them viable transit routes for Chinese and European goods. One Chinese scholar even described Azerbaijan recently as a “pivotal country” in the BRI’s China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor. China is developing a trade route via Kazakhstan that crosses the Caspian from the Kazakh port of Aktau to Baku, which it visualises as a BRI hub.
For the US, on the other hand, Caucasus is vital turf for lighting fires on Russia periphery, for navigating NATO’s expansion eastward, for establishing itself in the oil-rich Caspian, for controlling one of China’s main trade arteries to the European market, and for curbing Iran’s influence in the region.
What should worry Washington most is that there is sufficient convergence between Russia and China to keep the Caucasus out of the US geopolitical orbit, especially as NATO is consolidating in the Black Sea region.